This Is How Putin's Advisor Sees The Ukraine Crisis Playing Out

Tyler Durden's picture

Vladimir Putin's chief "integration" advisor, Sergei Glazyev, has been regularly featured on these pages in the past (see Putin Advisor Threatens With Dumping US Treasurys, Abandoning Dollar If US Proceeds With Sanctions and Putin Advisor Proposes "Anti-Dollar Alliance" To Halt US Aggression Abroad for two examples). So now that the Ukraine situation has once again escalated, this time with both sides openly engaged in trade war and many suggesting all-out war just over the horizon, how does Putin's advisor see the Ukraine conflict playing out?

For the answer we go to Bloomberg:

Putin has sought to lure Ukraine and its more than 40 million people into the alliance to build a trading bloc to rival the EU. Yanukovych pursued closer ties with the customs union and pulled out of an association agreement with the EU before his ouster in February. His successor, President Petro Poroshenko, signed the free-trade accord with the 28-nation bloc in June.

 

Russia can’t go it alone against the U.S. and must create an “anti-war coalition” to check the “aggressor,” Glazyev said.

 

The point of a series of regional wars organized by the Americans, especially today’s catastrophe in Ukraine, centers on the U.S. securing control over all of north Eurasia” to bolster “its position against China,” Glazyev said. “That’s how the U.S. military and oligarchs are trying to maintain leadership in the global competition with China.”

 

The effort will backfire, said Glazyev, who spoke before a round of retaliatory steps announced by Russia yesterday banning food and agricultural products for one year from the U.S., the EU, Norway, Canada and Australia. The U.S.-led “economic war” against Russia will ricochet, leaving the EU to pay the steepest costs in the conflict, he said.

 

The trading bloc stands to lose about 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion), an estimate he says includes the possible bankruptcy of several European banks and companies toppled after the cutoff in financial and economic ties. An energy crisis in Europe will bring a sharp spike in prices and a loss of competitiveness for European producers. Meanwhile, Turkish, Chinese and east Asian nations will fill the void left by the departure of their European rivals from the Russian market.

 

The fallout will cost 250 billion euros for Germany alone while pushing the three Baltic states to the brink of an “economic catastrophe,” he said. Lithuania and Latvia will lose the equivalent of half of their entire economic output, and the cost for Estonia will reach 50 percent more than its gross domestic product, Glazyev said.

Where does that leave Russia?

“Task no. 1 is to block those threats to economic security that are now coming from the U.S., neutralize them by reducing the dependence of our external economic activity on the mercy of American politicians, whose aggressiveness threatens the entire world,” he said.

Glazyev's conclusion:

To further insulate its economy, Russia should abandon the use of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, according to Glazyev. Russia, which international reserves are the world’s fifth-biggest, needs to diversify its holdings to include China’s yuan, India’s rupee and Brazil’s real.  “If a country aspires to reserve status for its currency, it should behave properly, and that isn’t the case today,” Glazyev said.

And this is how Putin sees the world. De-escalation? Good luck.

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good man's picture

My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do... http://goo.gl/bhiamE

doctor10's picture

The failure of American leadership in the mideast was signaled in 1979 with the downfall of the Shah. That was the warning signal that our reach exceeded our grasp. Having spent the remaining years pursuing the unobtainable-the country is financially, morally and spiritually exhausted.

Kaiser Sousa's picture

JUST DUMP ALL THOSE FUCKING TREASURY'S ALL FUCKING READY!!!

 

ps: how bout that phony ass Silver and Gold trading all week....

Yen Cross's picture

 There's plenty of other "scapegoats" on the list.

Quus Ant's picture

You think they aren't trying?  Why was Cyprus taken down? And BNP Paribas?   The exits have been blocked and Carrie is about to lose her freaking mind. 

Yen Cross's picture

 You're "preaching to the choir" my friend.

Quus Ant's picture

Not everyone gets it, Yen, or they wouldn't be asking why Russia isn't dumping treasuries.

Nixon closed the gold window-  Obama dropped the iron curtain.

Winston Churchill's picture

I haven't concluded that yet.

Too hurried a move will destabilize Russia's allies almost as much as the US.

Much as I would like to see faster action, I understand the cautious pace.

You eat an elephant, one mouthful at a time.

Quus Ant's picture

The West is actively trying to encircle and destroy Russia, and by this article we know Russia knows it. 

Again, why was Cyprus taken down? And BNP Paribas?

If a major player wanted to dump their treasuries they missed their chance.  If they ever had one.

 

“To have the United States at our side was to me the greatest joy. Now at this very moment I knew the United States was in the war, up to the neck and in to the death. So we had won after all!"

you said that

Winston Churchill's picture

Its who wins the war , not the battles that counts.

The Russians are slow to mount....

Quus Ant's picture

okeydokey.

Have you heard about these skirmishes:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-31/4-trillion-fake-euro-bonds-seiz...

4 TRILLION in "fake" bonds seized at vatican bank. 

 

 this one is good, too:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/6-trillion-us-bonds-seized-zurich

6 TRILLION in US Treasury bonds- fake naturally- seized in Zurich. 

 

 

 

Yen Cross's picture

 The battle has already been fought my friends... Both of you have compelling "reasoning" ... The simple fact is, demand is driven by finite resources, and NOT growth!

 How many times do I need to say that the European banking system was NEVER recapitalized after 2007-08? Keep buying those Greek bonds PIMP>Ko

  You guys are correct about the "rose colored lense" charts are obsolete "memes" ...  but you also fail to recognize what's in your face every fuking day!   Devaluation!  Fractional lending!

  Tyler the carat hyjacking is getting old!   JFC, if we did TORT reform we'ld be flying to work in $20k pods.

Quus Ant's picture

I'm with you, Yen.   My point is Russia isn't slow playing.  The friendly game is over. 

Ever seen two 7 year old boys play a board game?  You'll know how this ends.

Yen Cross's picture

 You're an articulate poster Q-A . Yes, I get it >q-a<

  I see an effeminate manchild that peaked at age 15-16, playing games with a "less than polished statesman"...

 Yes, I whole-heartedly agree with you Quus Ant/

TeethVillage88s's picture

Quus Ant; I'm playing catch-up, but feeling like in left field. I don't know the Treasury Bond Sales game, but know there is a register and Embassy or Designated People to track and receive US Treasuries in other countries.

Why couldn't Russia trade US Bonds to China or Japan?

Quus Ant's picture

This should help:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-18/china-sells-second-largest-amou...

 

China doesnt' want treasuries- they are dumping when and where they can. 

Japan too.

 

Belgium is cornering the market.

 

TeethVillage88s's picture

Thanks, I have been following the Belgian Bulge Story for 2 months now. I did a little write up of it myself. But I don't see the official Data really showing any big change except for Belgium.

http://www.treasury.gov/ticdata/Publish/shl2002r.pdf
http://www.treasury.gov/ticdata/Publish/shla2013r.pdf
(http://www.treasury.gov/ticdata/Publish/mfh.txt)
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/intinv/iip_glance.htm

I didn't update the latest:

Last Data is from April 2014.

Belgium 2002 = $10.8 B, then 2013 = $163 B, Today $366 B
Cayman Islands 2002 = $10.7 B, then 2013 = $66 B, Today ??
Canada 2002 = $8.4 B, then 2013 = $46.6 B, Today $60.5 B
China 2002 = $95 B, then 2013 = $1,272 B, Today $1263 B
Hong Kong 2002 = $37 B, then 2013 = $89 B, Today $155 B
Ireland 2002 = $6 B, then 2013 = $91 B, Today $112 B
Japan 2002 = $260 B, then 2013 = $1,023 B, Today $1210 B
Luxemburg 2002 = $20.2 B, then 2013 = $107 B, Today $141 B
Philippines 2002 = $3 B, then 2013 = $36 B, Today $34 B
Poland 2002 = $7 B, then 2013 = $31 B, Today $30 B
Russia 2002 = $3 B, then 2013 = $138 B, Today $116 B
Switzerland 2002 = $28 B, then 2013 = $157 B, Today $178 B
Taiwan 2002 = $0 B, then 2013 = $183 B, Today $175 B
United Kingdom = $45.7 B, then 2013 = $130.6 B, Today $186 B

Duffy Duck's picture

yeah china and japan dont want what they have.

funny bout the 4 trill in fakes at the vatican, since some on here think its the jesuits/vatican behind all the world's banks... you know...  idiot dupes....

 

AS the dollar loses reserve status, eventually all those dollars are gonna come home. 

 

inflation for sure, but deflation first?  I dunno.... Bueller??

TeethVillage88s's picture

About 10 years back, South Korea and Japan's Currencies started to Rise against the Dollar. What they did was buy more US Currency or Treasuries to stop that from happening.

Any new changes over the last year in China or Japan's holdings don't seem to matter much considering the huge holdings.

China 2002 = $95 B, then 2013 = $1,272 B, Today $1263 B
Hong Kong 2002 = $37 B, then 2013 = $89 B, Today $155 B
Ireland 2002 = $6 B, then 2013 = $91 B, Today $112 B
Japan 2002 = $260 B, then 2013 = $1,023 B, Today $1210 B

Yen Cross's picture

 Hmmm... Euroclear and BIS are coming to mind.

TeethVillage88s's picture

Yeah, seems like if you are on the outs with the Vatican or US Government it would be easy to confiscate "real" us Treasuries. Since Individuals have to report US Treasury Holdings Monthly and have to be registered, no one can pull off a scam.

But if we didn't want to redeem Russia's Treasuries, then we could refuse.

10 years ago I read that Iran & North Korea were the worlds biggest counterfeiters of US Currency. No word on if US Spy Agencies can print US Treasuries or Currency though.

shitco.in's picture

There are plenty of real (HIGH value) US govt/treasury bonds out there that are not "treasuries" as you know them.  Many of these don't have to be reported monthly.  

Winston Churchill's picture

With rehypothecation prevalent almost to infinity , I for one have no

idea what is counterfeit anymore. An argument in semantics only.

shitco.in's picture

@Quus Ant - Re: 4 and 6 trillion in "fake" bonds...

Do some more research into those and into other "fake" bonds found in the area from 2009 until now.  Go down a few rabbit holes along the way and I am sure that your entire perspective will change.

Quus Ant's picture

so they are or they aren't fake? 

I say they aren't.  They are bonds that won't be honored because they can't be honored. 

If you have any information that could blow my mind lead the way.  This rabbit is all ears.

TeethVillage88s's picture

Could this just be a "Planned" slow down in US & EU Labor Forces to "Cool-Off" the Economies in view of all the Money Pumping and Debt???

Kind of a "Damn the Torpedoes" approach to Economics where you say to hell with the Poor and Jobless.

MeMongo's picture

American aggressiveness...... What Chutzpa!

Radical Marijuana's picture

I share Glazyev's views, except I believe that the people who dominate NATO countries are more criminally insane than can be fully comprehended. Meanwhile, the vast majority of people in North America continue to be brainwashed to believe in the banksters' bullshit, while the majority of the people in NATO counties also appear to be incompetent political idiots, which will never bother to try to understand how and why what Glazyev stated was accurate, although an understatement.

exi1ed0ne's picture

I share them as well, but I see a bit different outcome - Fracturing of NATO and destruction of the EU and the Euro.  With the smaller countries near the boarder especially, the economies just can't replace sanction contraction.  Even the larger nations, with Germany as the prime example, will have to break ranks with the US at come point.  Once all the players pick their team it's gonna be game on.

omniversling's picture

Jim Willie calls Germany already heading for the exit. And years ago Pippa Malgrem reported Germany already had a new Dmark printed (reported ZH 26/10/2011):

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1405540920.php

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/germany-already-printing-money…-deutsche-marks

swmnguy's picture

RM, I share those views as well, but would go further.  It seems to me that US foreign policy is being lifted straight from Zbigniew Brzezinski.  He's always had a hard-on for Russia.  The goal isn't just to establish a position from which to counter China, but very specifically to break up Russia into a patchwork of small states that can be easily manipulated.

RafterManFMJ's picture

It's to the point now popcorn isn't enough; pass the bowl of crack, please.

Hephaestus's picture

Pass me the green herb filled bowl please its behind the 200gal tank of Jim Beam.

Duffy Duck's picture

it's beyond crazy that the feds havent finally decided to legalize/regulate/tax weed.

I guess the drug war fatheads have a well funded lobby.

Quus Ant's picture

Russia is all over it. 

Jonesy's picture

You too. All over it, all the time.  Enjoy your comments and the links you provide.  Thanks!

Quus Ant's picture

Thank you, Jonesy. 

*blushes*

CheapBastard's picture

This guy could be right about China. It would expalin why Barry and Holder ignore all the Mainland money laundering into RE 'cause later it will all be "confiscated" for national security reasons.

conscious being's picture

Kind of like how Japan got pantsed with the Plaza Accords. They bought all this trophy RE for big money and then it all became nearly worthless.

Rehab Willie's picture

Putin plays chess, Obama plays dominoes

uistbhoy's picture

Obama's just the guy on the commercial. Putin may be too, but if he is he does a better job of hiding it.

buyingsterling's picture

Maybe it is all scripted, but if so the script call for Obama to play a role that would convince any sane person that he hates this country and the bulk of its inhabitants.

It's in fact a perfect on question mental-health test. If you don't see in Obama a hater, you are literally crazy or retarded.

Mr. Ed's picture

Spot on.  Most white Americans have lost the ability to think clearly about any issue where a black person's judgement is in question.  Most of the rest of the country doesn't care... even the part that is here legally.

Obama is indeed a hater... his actions speak much louder than his words.

Monty Burns's picture

I agree, but the First Ho' is the main source of hate and resentment towards Whitey, without whom she'd probably be washing dishes in MacDonalds.

lasvegaspersona's picture

The US has become the neighbor that has opinions about everything including how you should live your life, but is always having to borrow everything in your garage and kitchen.

Once the dollar is gone we shall see a different set of behaviors all over...hopefully.

Much of the world simply sees some other power stepping into Americas shoes as the hegemon. It is entirely possible that a new monetary system could leave the role of 'reserve asset' filled by gold and then the currencies of individual countries could be used internally and across border if the 2 countries have currency swap agreements. This would leave the role of money hegemon vacant.

Winston Churchill's picture

That would be the best option ,although I'm sure not the planned one.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

My gut sense plus rational brain tell me that a switch toward a basket of RRCs (Regional Reserve Currencies) will be the case, and is already happening.  Sorry, Jim Rickards, but the US Neocons have gone too far and the SDR is dead.  To quote another doctor: "It's dead, Jim, it's dead!"

IMHO, the "Trigger Event" for 'USD dethroning as the GRC' will be when the global usage of the USD drops to 49.9% (from present 60%).  After that, things will happen FAST, and American Joe Public will be blind-sided or unable to mitigate, most likely.

That's a total of 9 RRCs (USD, CNY, EUR, RUB, BRL, INR, JPY, GBP, ZAR) that I see taking shape, and which represent all continents.  Libertarians, please note that South Africa's currency is the Rand (ZAR).  Thought you'd like that.  ;-)  It's only fair and rational that RRCs be correlated to the national GDP:

* GDP, Nominal by country   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29

   GDP Per Person, by country   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita

p.s. Note that nouveau-riche types (shady oligarchs, drug/crime lords, etc) will not only avoid the USD, but will avoid the CAD also -- since Harper and Canada are now totally "America's lap-dog".  Therefore, expect the CHF and HKD to be more popular for "discrete" people than the CAD.

Peter Pan's picture

The USA cannot recover lost political and economc ground. Its only hope therefore is to destabilize Russia and China.

It is all downhill from here no matter what.

JuliaS's picture

US dreams of WW2 days when all of its rivals bombed eachother into oblivion, paving way for Bretton Woods and opening international markets to American-made goods.

Only, this time if an all out war breaks out, the sucker will be nuclear.

Imagine the legitimate use clause being used against us just like in Japan. Let's pretend this time China is on the offiensive.

- Well, we had to do it to save lives. It was clear the ground invasion of America wasn't going to work with 2nd Amendment and all, so we had to kill 100+ million to save a billion Chinese lives. Them Jerry-Chen's just wouldn't surrender! We tweeted the ultimatum twice, and there was not a single hashtag response.

 Let one of'em similar-sounding quotes go into history books for another 100 years, echoed by future politicians and generals. Let there be stories of brave Chinese men and women liberating poor ethnic minorities from white businessman capitalist master race.

And don't the remaining survivors dare to say a word back or look the wrong way at any of the Chinese bases set up in each of the 50 former States.

 If nuking Japan was alright to save lives faced with a possibility of bloody land invasion, wouldn't you also agree that America would also be very hard to invade for anyone who dared. So, it's settled. Nukes it is!