Russia "Fold" Hope Fades - Stocks Tumble To Red

Tyler Durden's picture

Update: and the reason why stocks just surged:

  • 2Q GDP Tracking Est. Cut to 3.9% From 4.2% at Goldman Sachs
  • 2Q GDP Tracking Est. Cut to 3.9% From 4.2% at JPMorgan Chase
  • 2Q GDP Tracking Est. Cut to 4.1% From 4.3% at Barclays

And cue buy program.


and credit is not buying it...


Ignited by VIX but even that has given up...


Seems like stockas making a run to ignore all geopolitics of the last 2 days...


Despite the concreteness of a tweet 'proving' Putin was ready to fold, US equities are giving up hope and are now red on the day (led by Nasdaq). US Treasury yields have remained notably lower all night and are fading lower once again. Gold and silver and rebounding and oil's modest early slip has stabilized. DAX futures have broken back below 9,000 and 2Y Bund yields touched -0.5bps early on.


Stocks have dropped back into the red after the tweet exuberance...


JPY carry fading...


Treasuries do not seem to be buying the Russia fold hype...


DAX futures are fading to red also...


Charts: Bloomberg

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fonzannoon's picture

It's mid august. Lets see how the traders are handling it.

Winston Churchill's picture

Anyone still in better exit now.

Beat the afternoon rush.

Nobody will want to hold over this weekend.

Eyeroller's picture

I've said that so many other Fridays before...

Back in the unrigged days, an Iraq airstrike would have resulted in futures down hundreds followed by massive sell off.

But a Russian TWEET undoes all of that!

If the fucking Martians landed, the press would find a way to spin it as bullish, and the markets would comply.

aVileRat's picture

Gulf war 1, we had 2 days huge sell down and oil ripped + oil & gold stocks which led to a 4 year rally.

Now ?

This being said, market has priced in the market effect on ISIS, which is zilch if it comes to AC's vs. Honda-technicals.


Dr. Engali's picture

2.38% on the ten year says the BernakenYellenStein isn't raising rates any time soon. War is either a great excuse to let the shit collapse, or for an untaper..... stay tuned....

fonzannoon's picture

Doc productivity doubled. 200k jobs per month are being created. Jobless claims have tumbled. Wage growth is ah....err....anyway there is no doubt she is setting up to raise rates. If only because we have all been saying they can't. 

Dr. Engali's picture

Like I said, they may give the gratuitous rate hike just to continue the illusion that things are alright with the world, but the fed funds will never be above 1% again. The problem is how do you turn 'never' into a sandwich.  

fonzannoon's picture

well that I pretty much agree with. I think you guys have the right bet. If they don't do it by Q2 of next year it's never happening.

buzzsaw99's picture

<-- i can haz never sandwich

<-- prefer nothing burger

Grande Tetons's picture

When this all ends the 10 year will be around 1 percent? Who said that? Some guy who will paying  a grand to dine at IHOP. 

fonzannoon's picture

It will be at 1%, but that will be after the fed raises rates.

Grande Tetons's picture

How does the market bluff a bluff? 

fonzannoon's picture

Look at the 10yr bund following the 10yr JGB. as the Dax now follows the nikkei's correction last year.

That is our future. Yields dropping as every last ounce of juice gets squeezed out of any asset with yield. It's a vice grip. The fed knows it. So they have created this bs narrative so they can raise rates to try to get some money in motion. It will probably work for a bit. But then the yield submarine continues to it's eventual resting place at the bottom of the abyss. 

Dr. Engali's picture

"That is our future. Yields dropping as every last ounce of juice gets squeezed out of any asset with yield."


That is exactly where I see things heading. Everything will either be yielding zero or negative real returns. 

buzzsaw99's picture

i will call that obvious bluff and raise you an untaper

fonzannoon's picture

Well I think we all call the bluff. If we get a monster war and the pres gets to blow the deficits out again maybe we get an untaper. Otherwise I think we are on cruise control to the ocean floor.


Dr. Engali's picture

Buying treasuries at 3% has been a good trade. I move some money into high yield last week.

fonzannoon's picture

Good luck man. I am long gone from HY. Investment grade from here on out. Just my humble opinion but I think yield starts getting sorted out in a violent way.

Nice trade though. Taking the other side ususally seems to work.

Payne's picture

When Britain wiped out the Spanish fleet everything changed.  We are the Spanish empire, stuck in mediocrity.


buzzsaw99's picture

I see a red door and I want it painted black
No colors any more, I want them to turn black...

B.J. Worthy's picture

Fed version: Print it Black.

passenger_pidgin's picture

Time to trot out the Gartman.

SilverRoofer's picture

I hope it crashes the ponzi has to end sometime. Can amy one tell me why the silver lease rates havnt been updated since july 10th.


IronShield's picture

It's up!  No wait, it's down!  No, it's up again...  Yawn...

Are you a bunch of masochistic day traders or what!?  Sheesh...

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

The tweet was for one reason only.  Someone with connections in Russia had shares they still needed to unload on some dumb money in the west (of which there is a lot), so plant a tweet (we geniuses in the west take tweets VERY seriously, especially if they have a #hashtag), pump the price and dump. 

And once again, Russia fucked the EU!

barre-de-rire's picture

when you think kiev said today we gonna ban transit gaz, and vote it tuesday....

imagine how cunts gonna get wet at the announce " europ do not want us to ban gaz ".

will be the most epic tuesday of the year.


Atomizer's picture

Gays are the new wet dream for the BAR (legal department). Divorce is down, let's hook up with the male fudge packaging environment. We can make millions off these feminine creatures. 

Ness.'s picture

Is green the new red or are my charts playing tricks on me?

Kaiser Sousa's picture

well its the last hour of trade in London and that means time for a ramp in US Fraud markets like every fucking day...

hope u all r enjoying the all attempt to keep the phony paper price of Silver below $20 as well...

Atomizer's picture

We just need to impose more sanctions on Russia or declare another loss in underemployed stats. The HFT Bots will turn the market green. 

valley chick's picture

Green shoots! Up, up an away!

FuzzyDunlop21's picture

S&P back in the stratosphere. Nicely done Mr Chairwoman

RaceToTheBottom's picture

Can't wait till the weekend posts.  The real world has me down...

Joe Tierney's picture

Ya gotta know when to fold'em, know when to hold'em....


Damn Western HYPOCRITES!


Out of one side of their mouths they smugly proclaim how irrelevant, weak and cornered Russia is, but out of the other side they jump for joy and relief every time they get a tiny scrap of information to the effect that Putin might be folding!


I wanna see the look on their ass-faces when the day comes (very soon now) that Russia along with its partners prove by hard facts and reality that they massively underestimated Russia and massively overplayed their weak hands.

orangegeek's picture

S&Ps up 9 -  no POMO today.


Funny dat.


Who's sandbagging cash to drive this dawg higher??  That you yellen?

SheepDog-One's picture

The problem with Putins Tweet was it lacked a #hashbrown #selfie.

jubber's picture

Poxy DOW HOD up 190 points from the overnight low

jubber's picture

DAX just fell through 9000 after hours European futures all red  and falling