The Gold Market: An Analysis Of Recent Geopolitical, Economic And Banking Events

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Fabrice Drouin Ristori, CEO of

Gold Market : An Analysis of Recent Geopolitical, Economic and Banking Events

There are many events to be analysed for these last few weeks. As happens every year, this time of year is, once again, quite fertile.

These events, whether geopolitical, economic, financial or historical (end of the London Gold & Silver Fixing), all exert influence, more or less on the long term, on the precious metals markets.

Within a long-term investment perspective, it is best to analyse first the geo-strategic events, since they might give us a clue on the hard trends in regard to the international monetary system, albeit without short-term fluctuations.

All of those events can be tied together and provide hints that confirm, as I’ve been showing with the rest of’s editorial team for several years, that a financial paradigm change is occurring and that it will lead, as has always been the case historically, to a return of a form of gold standard. We are not inventing this: Owning gold has always constituted a means of protecting one’s wealth in times of transition between monetary systems.

By following our analyses, you will be able to keep an eye on the different stages of these changes, in the midst of media fog and financial disinformation.

Spot Prices Performance

Gold and silver did well these last few weeks, since the start of June, coming out of their long-term correction phase, before experimenting a significant correction, Monday 14 and Tuesday 15 (July), following two more attacks on the COMEX.

At a time when both London fixes in gold and silver are being questioned, we have to reckon that this last blatant manipulation attempt was a sign of despair from the manipulators. As Egon von Greyerz states in a new article, the manipulators (Western commercial banks and governments) have almost no physical gold left, and they are desperately trying to kill this bullish sentiment in the markets in order to keep investors from flocking to physical gold and silver, which would make demand explode, at a time when there’s no available physical gold at these artificially-low prices and, thus, no physical gold to insure the convertibility of millions of paper contracts owned by thousands of investors in physical gold.

These last two attacks, at the most illiquid times of the day, constitute new evidence of blatant manipulation. GATA (Gold Anti Trust Action Committee) will gladly add these two new episodes to its long list of proofs it has been gathering for over a decade. And, without a doubt, BAFIN (German financial regulation organism) must have closely watched the price action on Monday and Tuesday. BAFIN has turned out, these last few months, to be the sole regulation agency paying attention to the price manipulation (certainly due to the United States’ refusal to repatriate even a small portion of their gold reserves), since its director stated that the gold market manipulation was much more important than LIBOR’s.

As can be seen, judicial enquiries have progressively moved from LIBOR to Forex and, finally, the gold market. In fact, this is a natural progression, because (confirmed) manipulations of LIBOR and Forex cannot occur unless gold is, also, manipulated.

The main financial and economic media in the West do not cover this phenomenon, or ever so hardly, but we all know who their financial masters are. Trusting their analyses to make investment decisions seems suicidal when, for instance, we know that central banks are buying stock shares and are, thus, pushing stocks higher. But you won’t read about that in the traditional “financial” media.

This media silence contributes to exposing millions of investors to bubble-prone assets (stocks, bonds and real estate, in certain countries).

Whatever the case may be, the manipulators are trapped in all scenarios, because these organised crashes only increase the transfer of physical god and silver toward the East (Asia, Russia, China, India) and lessen their capability to provide physical metals at a time when no heavy buyer (Russia, China, BRICs) is trusting paper gold. So, whatever they do from now on, the end of their capability of manipulating the precious metals’ prices is nearing.

The Zerohedge website, in two articles (read here and here), details the colossal number of gold futures contracts sold in order to crush the prices, on Monday and Tuesday, July 14-15.

Paul Craig Roberts, former State Secretary to the Treasury, has also explained, in a recent article, the scope of this manipulation.

We have been observing this price manipulation phenomenon for several years now, and the length of its duration may drive one to exasperation, but the truth is that reality cannot be manipulated forever. As with any other phenomenon, imbalances end up being corrected in long-term cyclical movements.

COMEX: Disconnect between virtual and physical confirmed on official CME site

A few weeks ago, I published an article focusing on the disconnection between the physical and virtual markets with regard to silver. Another proof of this disconnection can be found just by reading the official definition of silver futures contracts on the official CME website. In the bottom of the page, in the F.A.Q. section, it is written that “price may be managed separately from physical supply”. This does confirm a disconnection in fixing the price of silver on futures contracts. Because we know that, for the moment, as Paul Craig Roberts explains, those futures contracts are what the silver price is based on. In this context, no one can know the real worth of physical silver, given the amount of paper silver contracts floating above a tiny available physical silver market.

Could there be gold confiscation in Germany?

BAFIN confirmed to the German website it had asked banks for information about clients having invested in gold, which quickly gave rise to rumours of confiscation from the German authorities.

I do not agree. BAFIN has been, in the last few months, the only regulating agency speaking openly about price manipulation, and has certainly had something to do with Deutsche Bank letting go of its seat in the London Gold Fix.

In a context where Germany has also been told by the United States that it could not even get back quickly a mere tiny portion of their gold stored at the New York Fed, and where Germany is cooling off its relation with the U.S. in favour or Russia and China (Germany just expelled the CIA chief in Germany because of spying accusations).

My take is rather that BAFIN is trying to know the level of exposure of German investors to the paper gold fraud.

BAFIN knows the price of gold is being manipulated, it has stated as much, and this request rather shows it is worried about the consequences of the implosion of the paper gold market for the German investors.

This gold audit, by the way, and this is revealing, only deals with gold derivatives and contracts sold to German investors by banks and investment funds, and not with sales of physical gold. As far as I know, no information was requested from precious metals storage companies.

So BAFIN is most likely worried about a coming implosion in gold derivatives.





Now to the financial/banking sector: Several news items confirm the seriousness of the situation (which, in fact, has been serious since the 2008 crash) and shed light on the fragility of the international banking system. Savers should take note of the deteriorating situation.

Banks are underestimating their risks

As Philippe Herlin writes in his recent analysis for, according to some analysts, banks have been revising their risk models in order to lower their required outright funds by underestimating the risks and by grossly overestimating the value of their assets.

And this comes out of the 84th annual report from the BIS (Bank for International Settlements), the “central bank of central banks”, the institution in charge of implementing prudential norms for commercial banks across the globe (Basel III).

Their underestimation of risks puts them in jeopardy, should an un-foreseen event take place.

And, as we’ve seen these last few weeks, un-foreseen events are occurring:

The main banks from Austria (Erste Bank) and Portugal (Banco Espirito Santo) announced some serious problems. There has even been a bank run in Bulgaria.

This puts in perspective ECB chairman Mario Draghi’s announcement about a 1 Trillion euro bail-out plan for banks, even though he’s saying it is to jumpstart credit.

Meanwhile, the IMF is suggesting, again, seizing depositors’ accounts.

The German newspaper Die Welt reported that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), on June 22nd, published a new call to use depositors’ accounts to pay sovereign debt (of course, after having paid the banks’ derivatives).

“The IMF is preparing for another round of confiscating depositors’ accounts”

In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will make official a rule making it impossible (we don’t know yet if it will be only temporary) to redeem funds invested in certain money market funds, amounting to a sort of bail-in or capital control in case of a crisis.

In this case, only sums invested in those funds will be impossible to redeem.



Let’s end this report with geopolitical events. Colossal changes are happening; these things take time, but the trend will not be reversed: The move toward global rejection of the US dollar is now underway, it’s a reality. And the rejection of the dollar makes the creation of a new international monetary system mandatory, to which effect the BRIC countries are actively preparing, notwithstanding the refusal of Western countries to modify the current system.

BRICs : Creation of a new development bank to compete with the IMF

The BRICs Development Bank is now a reality. In my articles, since 2011, I have often written about events to come that would confirm this challenge to the current monetary system, and the creation of this BRICs bank is one of those important events.

The case of Germany

Germany, angry about a few situations, such as the ECB’s lax monetary policy, to which it has been strongly opposed for a long time, the refusal of the United States to repatriate even a meagre portion of its gold stored in New York with the Fed in short time, and the revelations of the United States spying in Germany, is starting to walk away from the destructive influence of English-speaking countries and of Europe and toward the East (integration in the Euro-Asia free-trade zone) and the BRICs.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Germany leave the European Union to join the BRICs which, as we’ve seen, are starting to build a base toward a new monetary system via the creation of their development bank, totally opposed to the IMF.

It’s difficult to find fault with the BRICs trying to walk away from a destructive and predator institution like the IMF. Case in point: the IMF loaned 17 billion to Ukraine under the condition that it doesn’t lose control of its eastern territories.

The IMF’s proposed evolution only consists of implementing their Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), another paper currency experiment without any change in the voting rights, with many countries being under-represented.

Germany’s position is not to be confused with Angela Merkel’s position. German industry leaders, notably, are accusing her of not taking Germany’s commercial interests with Russia at heart. Her position does not reflect the thinking of Germany’s commercial and industrial base, which will certainly push her toward the exit or even an anticipated one, since she is openly talking about leaving office before the end of her mandate in 2017.

Should this anticipated resignation be confirmed, it will reveal the end of the influence of political, banking and financial circles in Germany, and the seizure of control by the industrial leaders. As is always the case, commercial interests do end up dictating a country’s strategic orientations.

Germany’s behaviour, in the months to come, is to be monitored closely. Once its tilting toward the East is really officialised, probably in reaction to the next financial crisis that should come, end of 2014- start of 2015, it will have quick and severe consequences on the European Union and the survival of the euro.

Movements of de-dollarization and defiance against U.S. leadership

Sanctions against Russia are starting to turn against the United States, with nine European countries ready to ignore them, because Russia is a more important commercial partner than the U.S. for certain European countries.

Furthermore, these same countries consider that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), proposed by the Obama administration, is an attempt to annex Europe in a sort of economic NATO benefiting only American large corporations. Let’s recall that this treaty will place the interests of large corporations above national interests.

Russia’s influence in Europe, due to energy and commercial links that cannot be broken, is leading European countries to ignore the sanctions and to question their use of the dollar.

This questioning of the use of the dollar has even been announced publicly, recently, by two Frenchmen. Let’s hope France will follow Germany in this trend toward closer ties to the East.

TOTAL: Christophe de Margerie, its CEO, announced he was seeing no reason to keep buying oil with dollars, adding that it made perfect sense to use other international currencies for the settlement of oil transactions.

This questioning of the petrodollar by the CEO of one of the largest oil companies in the world is not just candid, when we take into account that the dollar’s stability is based on oil being traded in dollars, which automatically sustains the currency.

Since 2013-14, the direct questioning of the dollar use isn’t coming from small countries prone to conflicts, such as Lybia, Iraq or Iran, but directly from top leaders of important countries that can’t be worried about economic, or even military, pressures (Russia, China).

Another example:

Banque de France: The president of Banque de France, Christian Noyer, who is also a member of the board of governance of the European central bank, announced that sanctions against BNP would bring companies to massively reject the dollar.

He is clearly stating that “commercial transactions between China and Europe must be done in euros and renminbis. Let’s stop using the dollar... this case (sanctions against BNP-Paribas) will have consequences”.

The sanctions that are being imposed directly by the United States to its European partners or the ones it asks them to impose against Russia, at a time when the TTP is being negotiated, are not appreciated at all or even simply ignored, with direct consequences for the dollar.

Toward a new monetary system

All of the events mentioned above are part of the fundamental trend, i.e. a migration toward a new monetary system.

Physical gold is migrating to the East (Russia, China) and, with it, power and influence. We see it with China and Russia progressively imposing their will, building consensus with a great many countries that wish to end American domination made possible by their capacity (privilege) of issuing the world reserve currency.

The saying, “He who holds the (physical) gold makes the rules”, is truer than ever. The announcement of the creation of the BRICs development bank is just the first cornerstone in the new international monetary edifice. All we have to wait for is the first official announcement from the East of a new means of settlement of commercial trade based on one or more tangible assets, with gold. Afterwards, logically, an announcement of the convertibility of certain currencies into gold, or even the creation of a new currency that would be convertible to gold, should be made.


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Keltner Channel Surf's picture

A diligent gold bug, Fayed

Hangs kilobars over his bed

“I don’t want them far

Like to know where they are”

His bride hasn’t slept since they wed

Leonardo Fibonacci2's picture
CME always goes under ... the table, wearing kneepads for Yellen, Dimon and Blankfein.  Treasonist cowards with their constant after-close margin manipulation. 
Erect the gallows, lads.  Once a century or so, it becomes obvious its time to use them again.
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Nothing worse than a Luciferian named Christian...

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Who's got time for gallows to take down the police-state, when Sudden Debt will call upon those same police-state soldiers when someone accidentally is short 2 quarters on their change at a store / restaurant?
This is SRS bsns.
Tha's why Murrika's fukked fer good.

good man's picture

My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do...

ebworthen's picture


The derivative/paper Gold Ponzi market is designed to strengthen the fiat Ponzi.

Once they move everyone to digital only transactions and get rid of paper and coin they can tax every penny and freeze, bail-in, or confiscate at will.

Once they psychologically destroy tangible assets and condition the minds of the new generations that binary data in the ether of the Internet = tangible they will have the Serfs by the gonads.

When that whole scheme collapses is when the true value of tangibles will return.

All hail real money (Gold & Silver), a livable wage, the Constitution, the Rule-Of-Law.

Until sanity returns, it will be "All Hail Caesar!" and the fiat of the New Rome.

Sudden Debt's picture

Once? As of now, in my country, 99,1% of all transactions are done electronicly. Cash is extinct over here.
Just try to get 5000 euro's in cash over here, it will take you 2 weeks.


Yeah... That just got in about a year ago. Nobody gave a fuck.

And now what?


And after that? 100 euro's?

So... We're already almost there.

But you can save cash slowly right?!?!?


And I'm sure that number will also drop.
I've got 3 months of cash in my safe, just enough to use to get the fuck away from here or buy goods to survive when the smoke clears.

ebworthen's picture

Well under way in the U.S. too.

I get dirty/confused looks when I use cash, and almost never have the change counted back to me; they dump it in my hands like it's animal bones.

The psychological aversion to tangible money is being inculcated at a furious pace.  "Check your credit score" and people flashing their plastic card or waving the digital magic wand of their cell phone, the Chase Bank "Freedom card" - talk about an oxymoron!

"Freedom" is being in debt, being charged 6%-29% interest, being charged $10/month and paid 0% interest for a bank to hold your money. 

Forward!  *cough*

Sudden Debt's picture

When that happens, I count if for them and it already happened more than plenty of times that I just told them I wanted to see the boss because 50 cents where missing from the change back.
And believe me, I even once called the police because the boss didn't give me my money quick enough.
It's not about the money, it's the gesture and nobody steals from me.
My wife hates me for that :)

And I only give tips when I'm not only satisfied but when the waitor for example took the time to say a few kind words. Otherwise: zero.

fonzannoon's picture

you sound like a guy who does not go to the same restaurant twice, unless you are fine with your waiter pissing in your soup.

so many places here won't accept anything over $20. the plumbers/electricians etc etc who have run all cash businesses for years don't realize how screwed they are.

Sudden Debt's picture

Nop, I've got 2 fovorite restaurants and the restaurant where i eat during the week at work, I have my own table and the boss always comes to say hello.
I'm not a greedy person at all but I only pay for what I get.

fonzannoon's picture

SD in all seriousness, what scares the shit out of me is you guys over there have had cash eliminated and are now staring at negative interest rates and everyone seems okay with it. so much for rolling the guillotines.

Sudden Debt's picture

Oh, everybody who has some money is doing 2 things:
1. Downpay morgages and loans
2.buying more real estate

The first is creating the deflation and the second is driving up prices like crazy. The msn says it's because massive population growth but that is totally not true.

And nobody really takes out more loans because rates are to high so you have a collapsing euro because of those rates.

Jumbotron's picture

Think about this too guys.   As old fart Boomers like me start to die off en-masse ( I'm 50....hope to be around a little longer)  they are going to be leaving a shit-ton of inheritance and insurance money behind for the spouse and the kids.  If they are smart....they will pay down debt including mortgages.....and buy property cash on the barrel head.

Then what ?    After that, what's going to keep the whole charade afloat ?   Illegal aliens ?

I speak from experience.  We got some insurance money from the death of relatives and we paid for a house and 5 acres cash on the barrel head.  Looking to buy more next year.  Tax man is making some money on the property tax.  Power company the same.  But....the banks....not so much.  And the power company is going to hurt more when I go off grid.

Big money is doing the same.  Lots of rich folk buying up the West.  So are a lot of Chinese and South Americans......if for nothing else but to park some dirty money for a while.  All cash.

The MSM say the banks have never done better.  Well....I'd have a shit ton of reserves too if the Fed gave me Monopoly money every day and I didn't write loans.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

LOL. you're funny.
Past experience does not dictate future policy.
Ever heard of inheritance-tax? It will all be confiscated. Every penny.
What are you gonna do about it, protest? That's what the tear-gas grenade-launchers are for.
You'll take it deep in the ass & you'll thank Uncle Sam for giving only a medium-hard pounding.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Dude, what you're getting is the Fight Club clam chowder special with that attitude.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

You sound like a horrible person. I hope I never meet you. Ever.
That's like deciding a neighbour didn't cut their lawn to your liking nor perhaps did an inch of yours so you nuke their house.
People like you are mentally unbalanced.

Up to now I had no negative opinion of you really but what you describe is fucked in the head.

debtor of last resort's picture

I told that bitch; i have ebola, that's why i pay cash.

PeeramidIdeologies's picture

Was getting some goodies for the bike this afternoon. I went to pay with cash and the cashier gave me the strangest look. So I told her I was a drug dealer. They thought that was so funny. This world is fucked.

roadhazard's picture

I get an extra donut at the bakery  if I pay cash.

Jumbotron's picture

They get a kickback from your HMO when they do that.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I get a 10% discount buying sushi when I pay cash.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Murrika & EUSSR are so strange to me.
It's nothing for me to take hundreds in cash & buy groceries, pay rent, etc., in Canada.

PeeramidIdeologies's picture

Jesus... When it collapses it will be when they say so. Right this very moment they are drawing lines, deciding portions, figuring out who really owns what. When the time is right, the dissenters will be cast away, the boot lickers promoted, and the resources of the world under strict control. Gold and silver included.

Freedom will be purely intellectual, only the ignorant will know bliss, sanity a matter of personal choice. Good luck.

Sudden Debt's picture

They'll crash it when the people have no reserve money so no emergency economy can grow.
They need it to go fast and smooth.
And with a all electronic currency, it can be done in a matter of hours.

PeeramidIdeologies's picture

I think there will be a black market of sorts for many things, they won't be able to control everything all the time. I'm not sure if fast and smooth will be the way mind you. It has to appear organic. Supply line disruptions, lawsuits, scape goats, this stuff takes time and we will be asked for patience whilst we are enslaved

Sudden Debt's picture

Maybe for non imported products in your neighbourhood but for all the rest?
And can you local farmers supply everybody?
And in the cities?

PeeramidIdeologies's picture

I can't help but think of places like Cuba. Cars from the fifties, dwellings of basic construction, people selling whatever they can to get by. Lets hope that is an unrealistic template

Bossman1967's picture

I read an article that says 9/17:14 goodbye paper we will have but a limited time to turn the paper in to banks but I believe a second such date this year but some June 1 things have been all fucked up huh hmmm

heavy.metal's picture

Why would I want to turn paper in to the banks when I can still exchange it for some physical goods of tangible value?


NidStyles's picture

Some people just want to "believe" in stupid things. It's wise to just remember that not all humans are rational.

Sudden Debt's picture

On youtube, there's a end of everything posted every week with a date in the close future... And after that... They post a new vid with a new date.
Nobody can predict it and it will not go fast. There's still to much of a system left.

logicalman's picture

A friend of mine gave me an old school history book he found in a second hand book store. It was published the year I was born (1955), so he bought it for me.

Reading about the fall of Rome, if the word Rome was replaced with USA almost everything was a dead fit.

Given how fast information moved back then and the speed these days, I think the fall of the US empire will happen a lot quicker.




Sudden Debt's picture

Well, rome didn't fell in the 5th century AD, it actually moved east to constantinopel where it remained in power for another 1000 years.

So the us is far off to be compaired to rome as those guys held for nearly 2000 years in power and the US just 100 years.

But there you have it, they broke away with half of the empire and took the part they still controlled and was economical viable as Rome was totally broken by corruption and decadense.
So yeah, that part is totally the same.
The drugs, sex and heavy porn and all the liabilities... Just crazy.

In rome for example, at the end, the average workweek counted 12 WORKING HOURS!!! 12!!!!

And now we're also pretty close to that. The people kind of where happy but lazy.
They couldn't find soldiers anymore, the pay just didn't cut it anymore.
So Rome hired enemies, former enemies to do the fighting for them untill they turned against Rome for not receiving the promised money.
Te barbarians burned rome because they wheren't paid what was promised.
And even when they where in front of the ghates, rome still didn't want to pay even when they still had so much gold.
They just got to greedy.

Jumbotron's picture

It's easier if you look at the U.S. as just an extension of British colonialism with independent rule for a while.  But still.....the far western arm of Western Europe.  Which, in turn, was the Western arm of the Roman Empire.

You're right Sudden Debt.....this is not so much the collapse of some sovereign entity....but just the movement of power from the West to the East.

I find this song sad....but instructional.  It's about one man's personal heartbreak and collapse......but it scales up to the national level just fine.


"Down Around My Place"

John Hiatt

Joebloinvestor's picture

The comparison of Roman coins being diluted to the point of where the taxman would not accept them and the US coins being sandwiches was not lost on me.

Sudden Debt's picture

Real roman coins cost about 5 euro's a piece and a silver dinarius cost about 30 to 45 euro's. They're still extremely common.

Ban KKiller's picture

Please sir, we don't study history anymore as it is too informative. 

Class of 73 rules. 

Number 156's picture

It seems to me that the dream of The United States as the leader of the world under globalization has failed.
the East seems more in control of the global economy than the west.
Again, the USA was playing checkers.

Winston Churchill's picture

The death throes of that dream are not going to be pretty.

What we see now is merely an appetizer.

Pax Americana will not go quietly into that long goodnight.

"The American way of life is not negotiable".

Sudden Debt's picture

It didn't fail at all. It was a hell of a ride and we all got the best out of it.
But now it's somebody else his turn.
So what do you do?
Go down with the ship or move to the new empire when they take the steering wheel?
I might actually move if it happens fast enough. If it happens in the next 10 years, I'll move, if not, if longer, I'll be nearly 50 and than I'll stay and sweat it out.
But whatever happens, if you have the universal currency now, you have a window seat.

therevolutionwas's picture

Hope the wndow is bullet proof.

Sudden Debt's picture

Only the best 1/5 inch arcylic is used!

Escrava Isaura's picture

Number 156,

You said: "it seems to me The United States as the leader of the world under globalization has failed.

It seems to me that you don't quite understand it.

bankerbackbacon's picture

Escrava Isaura

So United States under globalization is successful? No it seems you didn't and it was designed to ensure Marx's statement that capitalist will sell their soul for a dollar comes true.


Happy trolling and enjoy not noticing world fascism (as clearly you are ignorant or..)

Escrava Isaura's picture


Number 156 said: "it seems to me The United States as the leader of the world under globalization has failed.

My answer: “you don't quite understand it.”

Then you said: “it was designed to ensure Marx's statement that capitalist will sell their soul for a dollar….. enjoy not noticing world fascism (as clearly you are ignorant or..)


Number 156 never said, failed to whom? And who the winners were? Number 156 made a broad statement that doesn't’ fit the facts, which “Sudden Debt” reminded him. There were winners.

Don’t know how you came out with Marx and Fascism. Who cares about Marx? Who cares about fascism?

So my answer stands: “Number 156 doesn't’ understand it well, because, ‘some,’ in the United States, did NOT fail.

And that is the Crux of the problem by the US being a Corporatocracy.

deja's picture

Playing checkers?  They knew exactly what they were doing.  The US government sold its citizens out so the fat cat corporations that funded elections and parties could make even more money by importing cheap, limited lifetime goods from mostly from China.  The majority, of course, were stupid enough to buy into it.  Buy, buy, buy and no one cared manufacturing was dieing and good jobs and stability along with it.