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It's Never Different This Time - CNBC Interviews Paul Tudor Jones After The Close On Black Monday

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"This is a market that has been seriously overvalued for some time," exclaims Paul Tudor Jones,"and what we are seeing today is the piercing of the bubble..." adding that "Wall Street was uniformly unprepared for this kind of a drop."

Of course Bill Griffeth asks should we buy this dip... Tudor Jones replies - so ironically -

"we should see massive Federal Reserve and Government intervention in the FX and debt markets to stem what has unquestionably been a panic."

But Tudor-Jones cautions:

"prudent investors should use any rally to scale back into short-term Treasuries."

The legendary trader goes on to explain he is trading fear as investors fear deflation and disinflation and warns

"every American needs to get their house in order, needs to be conservative in their investments, the next few years will be about capital preservation."

Wise words for record highs...

 

 

h/t @_gammalicious

 

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Sat, 08/09/2014 - 15:30 | 5070518 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

Phyzz.  Hard assets.  Food.  Water.  Power.  Shelter.  Guns.   And a very low profile.  God and prayers for the believers, and good luck for the rest of you.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 15:30 | 5070524 138
138's picture

The three B's, beans, bullets and bullion!

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 16:42 | 5070740 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

killer intro music.  sounds to businessy and markety. 

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 17:36 | 5070894 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Periods of Decline

 

S&P 500

 

Gold

 

Gold Stocks*

 

Jul 15, 1975 - Sep 16, 1975

 

 

-14.10%

 

 

-10.80%

 

 

-26.10%

 

 

Sep 21, 1976 - Mar 6, 1978

 

 

-19.40%

 

 

53.80%

 

 

31.30%

 

 

Sep 12, 1978 - Nov 14, 1978

 

 

-13.60%

 

 

1.40%

 

 

-10.10%

 

 

Oct 5, 1979 - Nov 7, 1979

 

 

-10.20%

 

 

2.60%

 

 

-10.60%

 

 

Feb 13, 1980 - Mar 27, 1980

 

 

-17.10%

 

 

-30.40%

 

 

-27.60%

 

 

Nov 28, 1980 - Aug 12, 1982

 

 

-27.10%

 

 

-46.00%

 

 

-65.20%

 

 

Oct 10, 1983 - Jul 24, 1984

 

 

-14.40%

 

 

-15.60%

 

 

-17.60%

 

 

Aug 25, 1987 - Dec 4, 1987

 

 

-33.50%

 

 

6.20%

 

 

-21.30%

 

 

Jul 16, 1990 - Oct 11, 1990

 

 

-19.90%

 

 

6.80%

 

 

-17.30%

 

 

Jul 17, 1998 - Aug 31, 1998

 

 

-19.30%

 

 

-5.00%

 

 

-32.90%

 

 

Jul 16, 1999 - Oct 15, 1999

 

 

-12.10%

 

 

23.50%

 

 

38.70%

 

 

Mar 27, 2000 - Oct 9, 2002

 

 

-49.00%

 

 

12.40%

 

 

67.70%

 

 

Nov 27, 2002 - Mar 11, 2003

 

 

-14.70%

 

 

9.70%

 

 

0.60%

 

 

Oct 9, 2007 - Mar 9, 2009

 

 

-56.80%

 

 

25.50%

 

 

-30.80%

 

 

Apr 23, 2010 - Jul 2, 2010

 

 

-16.00%

 

 

5.40%

 

 

2.40%

 

 

May 10, 2011 - Oct 3, 2011

 

 

-19.00%

 

 

9.40%

 

 

-3.90%

 

 

* Barron's Gold Mining Index used through 1990; HUI to present

 

 

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 19:55 | 5071257 aVileRat
aVileRat's picture

A fucking horrible post which gave no material information, and from Barrons no less.

Which is why I'm replying and tucking this nugget (gold pun, ha!) below it:

1987 was caused because

1. After a 40% run in the YTD, market strength reversed nearly half the year gains when irrational selling was met on mostly good jobs/economic strength/second quarter's.

2. Mega deals which were focused on high yield recaps, or tax holes (green mail) to juice ROE's via activism or market abritrage were the focus for 80% of wall st. returns and interest.

3. Many investors were not stock selecting but instead chose to write or follow indexing products via speculation on insurance protection, or puchasing auto-balancing mutal fund index products (hi Fidelity!)

4. Because green mail was more tax effective over constant stream dividends, every corpration was going to basically go tax-zero, and a zealous President did not like corporate America en-masse voting to "leave America" (tax system)

5. Japan, suffering their own stupid debt binge wanted to go even higher on the debt pile (they did) and export dump (they did) which forced the US Congress to threaten to devalue and open a new trade war.

6. Events of 4 & 5 led to a massive panic sell, which triggered 3. and because 4 led most M&A interest to collapse, the Arb's who were the only guys making money on wall st. speculating on deal mania started to sell, causing 3. to snowball which triggered portfolio programs to sell harder to keep their programmed NAV weights.

7. It all blew up.

Now compare & contrast to today.

Exam time, what is China doing and how are people telling you to get exposure into China ? What is the US threatening to do, should players not cease their currency nuking at the expense of US exports (and tech. valuations ? ), what has the market retraced to ? How did the market respond to 8/10 S&P and Russel corp's meeting or beating their sell side expectations in July ?

If we use a little reflexive thought, if we know Yellen knows, what we know; will she go the same way as the Fed of 1987, will the Treasury dept. allow Obama to block the tax inversion and risk a total market blowdown given over 90% of current surviving hedge & mutual fund speculators are long social media/ tech / biotech right now ? Deals that all depend on juicy tax and ROCE arbs in lieu of negative free cash flow's  and 100x value paper ?

Bonus question:

Compare and contrast The Bank of England in 1993 and the BOE of 2014. Now look at how did Singapore come down with a case of the "asian flu".

 

 

Sun, 08/10/2014 - 02:51 | 5072066 power steering
power steering's picture

I'm guessing that your career as a fruit bat pimp is near an end?

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 16:44 | 5070747 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

@138

That's also the name of one of my top aggregate sites for all things beans, bullets and bullion.  Great site...updates every minute with new posts and just goes on and on and on. 

http://bulletsbeansandbullion.blogspot.com/

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 16:55 | 5070783 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

check check and stack . let's not forget about family and god yall.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 20:58 | 5071420 Rootin' for Putin
Rootin' for Putin's picture

Wait, Bullion?  Ive been buying up all the Bouillon i could find!   I wondered why everyone else here didnt have as many ounces as me.  Now what do i do?

Sun, 08/10/2014 - 02:54 | 5072065 power steering
power steering's picture

 beans, bullets and bullion!   

 

Ahh The combination yields a fart fiesta!....Love the beef bullion

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 15:32 | 5070531 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

God invented circuit breakers for downside protection....nothing to worry about here. //

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 15:41 | 5070557 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

It's hardly a market if it cannot rise or fall naturally.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 18:13 | 5070979 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

naturally?

if i may quote love & rockets:

"You cannot go against nature
Because when you do
Go against nature
It's part of nature too"

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 15:41 | 5070559 Cattender
Cattender's picture

of course it's Different this time Because those Fucking Assholes printed up so MUCH FUCKING $$$!!!!!!

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 15:54 | 5070593 Toronto Kid
Toronto Kid's picture

I had to deal with a natural gas leak at the house last night.  And as I'm sitting in the car, half a block away, while waiting for the gas man to arrive, it struck me - I grabbed damn little as I booked it out of the house.

Phyzz.

Two changes of clothes, not including pants.

Brush for the hair.

Work laptop.

Wallet.

Hard drive.

And I wasn't going back into the house for anything else.  Before this I thought I would do a staged evacuation - get X amount of stuff out the door before booking it somewhere else.  In reality, if I could buy it elsewhere I wasn't interested in tossing it into the car.  This included toothbrush and toothpaste.  Now I know I will give it all up in an instant in favour of relocating somewhere safer and I will move damn quickly if I have to.

If your area requires the access to guns if tshtf, you might want to think about walking away from everything in favour of relocating to somewhere safer.

Now I have to go and reconfigure the GO bag, and perhaps permanently move it into the car.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 16:16 | 5070667 booboo
booboo's picture

You have hair, be thankful.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 16:31 | 5070707 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

If your area requires the access to guns if tshtf

You think you can boogie off to some place where they won't be needed, if not useful?

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 21:52 | 5071562 Toronto Kid
Toronto Kid's picture

I think living in a community of good people who respect law and order trumps the need for a gun.  I am going on the no man is an island philosophy. 

But I am astonished at how willing I am to leave it all behind, and how instinctive a decision it is for me.  If staying and fighting it out is your default position, then mad props to you.

I have preps if I have to shelter in place, I just don't value them.  I just didn't know I didn't value them until last night. 

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 23:06 | 5071764 The_Dude
The_Dude's picture

Common culture with like minded people that are willing to defend each other.....quickly being destroyed everywhere here in the US....good luck to you there

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 21:53 | 5071558 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Sure you got down voted by some jerks, there's always at least two jerks on ZH.....the wisdom of relocating if you need to pack heat now is just smart planning. If you need to carry now, how much danger will you and loved ones be in "later"? The smart answer is way too much danger, for the low cost of moving to safer ground now. Survival isn't about anything but 100% safekeeping for every one who is important to you. If you plan now, you won't have to walk away, you can sell out at a discount to some miscreat down voters from ZH.

Just sayin'

Sun, 08/10/2014 - 05:24 | 5072151 Curiously_Crazy
Curiously_Crazy's picture

I think the downvotes were for the bloody hairbrush. If ones priorities include it, it shows where priorities really lay, and being prepared for a SHTF scenario is not one of them. Just a guess though.

Sun, 08/10/2014 - 01:13 | 5071972 good man
good man's picture

My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do... http://goo.gl/bhiamE

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 15:30 | 5070525 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Hide in plain sight.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 16:26 | 5070697 booboo
booboo's picture

I have a shopping cart and a vagabond outffit. I'm thinking if the stasis^ry to cuff and stuff me I can shit myself, cops are funny about putting a smelly dude in their ride.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 15:33 | 5070532 q99x2
q99x2's picture

"we should see massive Federal Reserve and Government intervention in the FX and debt markets to stem what has unquestionably been a panic."

It is controlled by Brussels and software at the FED so what is the big deal. It's their software. They obviously know how to use it.

You BTFD and stop all that nay-saying.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 15:36 | 5070541 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

The Fed will repump the stock market, make a few cronies richer, then sieze assets.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 15:48 | 5070567 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

1987 crash S&P at 225.

S&P true valuation 2014 = 666.

In order to keep the Ponzi going after 1987 they had to repeal Glass-Steagall, get rid of defined pension plans and move the sheeple into 401K's/I.R.A.'s, and move risk onto the public treasury and off of bank balance sheets.

The "War on Terror" was the add-on after the dot-com bubble popped, must-keep-M.I.C.-humming and churning.

Ignoring the rule-of-law, violating the social contract, and shredding the Constitution has been the add-on after 2008.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 15:49 | 5070571 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Nice Stache Bill !!!!!

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 15:50 | 5070575 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i certainly hope he isn't referring to clownbux as capital

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 15:50 | 5070579 edifice
edifice's picture

Over 25 years ago, who cares? There actually was a market, then. Today, it's Fed Bubble Land. Always goes up.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 16:03 | 5070625 Stanley Lord
Stanley Lord's picture

Just for the record: Paul Jones is one of the good guys on Wall Street.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 23:25 | 5071815 Freddie
Freddie's picture

+1

Non-tribesman.

Ray Dalio is another good guy along with maybe Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, James Chanos plus Jim Grant.

I wonder how many here remember FNN?  It was out of So California.  It was a cable show.  John Bollinger was a cameraman there and also a surfer.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 16:23 | 5070686 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

PPT teams 14 to 21, report immediately. And get the Norwegian state pension fund on the phone.

Crash won't happen bitchez. Distrust in fiat will. We have a few more years to stack / prepare.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 16:49 | 5070756 Lokking4AnEdge
Lokking4AnEdge's picture

I still remember from my good old days...Paul Tudor Jones was a Cotton futures trader...made a good name to himself as a very smart trader....

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 19:34 | 5071200 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Come monday, the CNBS clan will be coughing up hairballs.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 16:59 | 5070803 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

any idea if the correction has started after Fridays rebel rouser so confused but prepared and actually ready set go

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 17:15 | 5070848 trader1
trader1's picture

tyler, are you signalling for a panic crash on monday, 11 aug 2014?

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 17:54 | 5070943 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

We've already had a 9/11.  

Maybe 8/11 is next.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 17:28 | 5070876 yogibear
yogibear's picture

"Well see massive government and Federal intervention"

Haven't  he been having this already? For the last 5 years?

We have had rates at essentually 0 for years now.

 

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 17:30 | 5070881 The Econ Ideal
The Econ Ideal's picture

LOL...someone should remake this video into a modern comedic interpretation and cast the comedian from Reno 911...

(P.S. Bill did end up right on his first call though - the market dipped and sped higher, courtesy of Fed easing and the "redefinition" of all gov't stats)

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 17:52 | 5070933 Agent P
Agent P's picture

FNN.....CNBC didn't exist until 1989.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 19:51 | 5071245 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Can you imagine the phone calls Oh shit; we have a retarded glance at the market today. Can you visualize the following ticker in 1989? It was quick and resourceful, bring it back. Fuck the deadbeats that cannot speed read. Swiftness is necessary.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 18:42 | 5071055 smcapmachine
smcapmachine's picture

You should have been buying everything in sight at Dow 1700. You'd be very rich today.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 20:00 | 5071269 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I'm already rich, don't buy at the top. You make more money during a correction. Cattle the investment herd, then slaughter for profit.

Blows a kiss.

Sun, 08/10/2014 - 12:26 | 5072760 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

wasn't AIG a dow component?

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 19:29 | 5071180 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I love old videos. Thanks Tyler. Market Ticker poster listed a SPX chart, we know.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 20:12 | 5071305 ShortTheUS
ShortTheUS's picture

The fact thta Bill Griffeth is relegated to one hour a day is sad... Like good cheese, he's gotten better with age and should definetely have more hosting duties than he does now (and that PBS show doesn't count)

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 20:19 | 5071327 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

What are those fractions on the ticker all about???

Seriously -

Just goes to show that reasonable, prudent analysis can be just as dead wrong as using a Ouija board. Even more so now that all that is in the markets is a decision by the FED the night/week/month before.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 20:53 | 5071410 Mercantilist
Mercantilist's picture

Not to bash PTJ, who happened to be in the hedge fund business at the right time, he was dead wrong about his bear market hypothisis - stocks went up so much from that time that today it looks more like a correction than a crash.  And, I was on the floor of the CME that day, so I can speak to this - I remmebr the FED needed to bail out local Chicago banks and First Options almost went under (they closed their doors the day after the crash).  

This is a different story - but a great look at history....hell, coper traded down to like 50cents after the crash - prices we will never see again.

Sat, 08/09/2014 - 21:50 | 5071553 johnmack
johnmack's picture

im sorry did the world end after black monday? no

will there be another crash yeah sure why not.

will world come to an end no

honestly everyone needs to chill out and take a breather. My take on preparing for crashes is that human beings never learn but we always "tend' (please note the quote) to fix things...sloppily but eventually. so why not make bank from knowing that idiocy keeps repeating itself.  

 

 

 

Sun, 08/10/2014 - 02:40 | 5072059 power steering
power steering's picture

Sell out to guys jamming pop ups into this . Fucing prosties

Sun, 08/10/2014 - 03:07 | 5072082 hedgiex
hedgiex's picture

PTJ traded in less rigged markets and at times when WS was less desperate to run for the hills although still feeding their greed with still juicy preys. Today, why should anyone bother whether the markets exist for preserving or increasing wealth.

Only lemmings still like to stroll on to landmines of predators.

Sun, 08/10/2014 - 08:16 | 5072304 johnmack
johnmack's picture

LOL, not that i care but being downvoted just proves im not willing to be the alarmist over issues like this. 

What has zerohedge been preparing people for... total world annihilation OR financial crisis of epic proportions. Guess what at no point has a financial crisis lead to the near end of the world. AT NO POINT. Let says USA does a 1990s USSR collapse. Sure people will be pissed and maybe lots of protests will occur but who cares, even in greece protests occurred and things are back to "normal". Its just that now the rich who stored their wealth outside the system are privy to assets so deliciously cheap that they will gorge themselves. So many more billionaires will be created from such a turmoil and this is a bad thing...how, im sorry if i am a pragmatist and not a reductive pessimist. Personally the sociopath in me wants the economy fail and crash hard.  People like me will buy assets for pennies on the dollar...?

to summarize I dont think inflation will occur, a deflation which is really a default in bonds and derivatives will wipe out large chunks of valuations.

I do appreciate the guys who answer me coherently that add to the discussion.

 


 

 

Sun, 08/10/2014 - 11:31 | 5072614 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Nice porn stash bill!

Sun, 08/10/2014 - 19:54 | 5074284 A Cruel Accountant
A Cruel Accountant's picture

This was the best time  to buy right at that moment. I bought and continued buying until  1999

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