It's Never Different This Time - CNBC Interviews Paul Tudor Jones After The Close On Black Monday

Tyler Durden's picture

"This is a market that has been seriously overvalued for some time," exclaims Paul Tudor Jones,"and what we are seeing today is the piercing of the bubble..." adding that "Wall Street was uniformly unprepared for this kind of a drop."

Of course Bill Griffeth asks should we buy this dip... Tudor Jones replies - so ironically -

"we should see massive Federal Reserve and Government intervention in the FX and debt markets to stem what has unquestionably been a panic."

But Tudor-Jones cautions:

"prudent investors should use any rally to scale back into short-term Treasuries."

The legendary trader goes on to explain he is trading fear as investors fear deflation and disinflation and warns

"every American needs to get their house in order, needs to be conservative in their investments, the next few years will be about capital preservation."

Wise words for record highs...

 

 

h/t @_gammalicious

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fockewulf190's picture

Phyzz.  Hard assets.  Food.  Water.  Power.  Shelter.  Guns.   And a very low profile.  God and prayers for the believers, and good luck for the rest of you.

138's picture

The three B's, beans, bullets and bullion!

Save_America1st's picture

killer intro music.  sounds to businessy and markety. 

Pladizow's picture

Periods of Decline

 

S&P 500

 

Gold

 

Gold Stocks*

 

Jul 15, 1975 - Sep 16, 1975

 

 

-14.10%

 

 

-10.80%

 

 

-26.10%

 

 

Sep 21, 1976 - Mar 6, 1978

 

 

-19.40%

 

 

53.80%

 

 

31.30%

 

 

Sep 12, 1978 - Nov 14, 1978

 

 

-13.60%

 

 

1.40%

 

 

-10.10%

 

 

Oct 5, 1979 - Nov 7, 1979

 

 

-10.20%

 

 

2.60%

 

 

-10.60%

 

 

Feb 13, 1980 - Mar 27, 1980

 

 

-17.10%

 

 

-30.40%

 

 

-27.60%

 

 

Nov 28, 1980 - Aug 12, 1982

 

 

-27.10%

 

 

-46.00%

 

 

-65.20%

 

 

Oct 10, 1983 - Jul 24, 1984

 

 

-14.40%

 

 

-15.60%

 

 

-17.60%

 

 

Aug 25, 1987 - Dec 4, 1987

 

 

-33.50%

 

 

6.20%

 

 

-21.30%

 

 

Jul 16, 1990 - Oct 11, 1990

 

 

-19.90%

 

 

6.80%

 

 

-17.30%

 

 

Jul 17, 1998 - Aug 31, 1998

 

 

-19.30%

 

 

-5.00%

 

 

-32.90%

 

 

Jul 16, 1999 - Oct 15, 1999

 

 

-12.10%

 

 

23.50%

 

 

38.70%

 

 

Mar 27, 2000 - Oct 9, 2002

 

 

-49.00%

 

 

12.40%

 

 

67.70%

 

 

Nov 27, 2002 - Mar 11, 2003

 

 

-14.70%

 

 

9.70%

 

 

0.60%

 

 

Oct 9, 2007 - Mar 9, 2009

 

 

-56.80%

 

 

25.50%

 

 

-30.80%

 

 

Apr 23, 2010 - Jul 2, 2010

 

 

-16.00%

 

 

5.40%

 

 

2.40%

 

 

May 10, 2011 - Oct 3, 2011

 

 

-19.00%

 

 

9.40%

 

 

-3.90%

 

 

* Barron's Gold Mining Index used through 1990; HUI to present

 

 

aVileRat's picture

A fucking horrible post which gave no material information, and from Barrons no less.

Which is why I'm replying and tucking this nugget (gold pun, ha!) below it:

1987 was caused because

1. After a 40% run in the YTD, market strength reversed nearly half the year gains when irrational selling was met on mostly good jobs/economic strength/second quarter's.

2. Mega deals which were focused on high yield recaps, or tax holes (green mail) to juice ROE's via activism or market abritrage were the focus for 80% of wall st. returns and interest.

3. Many investors were not stock selecting but instead chose to write or follow indexing products via speculation on insurance protection, or puchasing auto-balancing mutal fund index products (hi Fidelity!)

4. Because green mail was more tax effective over constant stream dividends, every corpration was going to basically go tax-zero, and a zealous President did not like corporate America en-masse voting to "leave America" (tax system)

5. Japan, suffering their own stupid debt binge wanted to go even higher on the debt pile (they did) and export dump (they did) which forced the US Congress to threaten to devalue and open a new trade war.

6. Events of 4 & 5 led to a massive panic sell, which triggered 3. and because 4 led most M&A interest to collapse, the Arb's who were the only guys making money on wall st. speculating on deal mania started to sell, causing 3. to snowball which triggered portfolio programs to sell harder to keep their programmed NAV weights.

7. It all blew up.

Now compare & contrast to today.

Exam time, what is China doing and how are people telling you to get exposure into China ? What is the US threatening to do, should players not cease their currency nuking at the expense of US exports (and tech. valuations ? ), what has the market retraced to ? How did the market respond to 8/10 S&P and Russel corp's meeting or beating their sell side expectations in July ?

If we use a little reflexive thought, if we know Yellen knows, what we know; will she go the same way as the Fed of 1987, will the Treasury dept. allow Obama to block the tax inversion and risk a total market blowdown given over 90% of current surviving hedge & mutual fund speculators are long social media/ tech / biotech right now ? Deals that all depend on juicy tax and ROCE arbs in lieu of negative free cash flow's  and 100x value paper ?

Bonus question:

Compare and contrast The Bank of England in 1993 and the BOE of 2014. Now look at how did Singapore come down with a case of the "asian flu".

 

 

power steering's picture

I'm guessing that your career as a fruit bat pimp is near an end?

Save_America1st's picture

@138

That's also the name of one of my top aggregate sites for all things beans, bullets and bullion.  Great site...updates every minute with new posts and just goes on and on and on. 

http://bulletsbeansandbullion.blogspot.com/

Bossman1967's picture

check check and stack . let's not forget about family and god yall.

Rootin' for Putin's picture

Wait, Bullion?  Ive been buying up all the Bouillon i could find!   I wondered why everyone else here didnt have as many ounces as me.  Now what do i do?

power steering's picture

 beans, bullets and bullion!   

 

Ahh The combination yields a fart fiesta!....Love the beef bullion

SHEEPFUKKER's picture

God invented circuit breakers for downside protection....nothing to worry about here. //

JLee2027's picture

It's hardly a market if it cannot rise or fall naturally.

stacking12321's picture

naturally?

if i may quote love & rockets:

"You cannot go against nature
Because when you do
Go against nature
It's part of nature too"

Cattender's picture

of course it's Different this time Because those Fucking Assholes printed up so MUCH FUCKING $$$!!!!!!

Toronto Kid's picture

I had to deal with a natural gas leak at the house last night.  And as I'm sitting in the car, half a block away, while waiting for the gas man to arrive, it struck me - I grabbed damn little as I booked it out of the house.

Phyzz.

Two changes of clothes, not including pants.

Brush for the hair.

Work laptop.

Wallet.

Hard drive.

And I wasn't going back into the house for anything else.  Before this I thought I would do a staged evacuation - get X amount of stuff out the door before booking it somewhere else.  In reality, if I could buy it elsewhere I wasn't interested in tossing it into the car.  This included toothbrush and toothpaste.  Now I know I will give it all up in an instant in favour of relocating somewhere safer and I will move damn quickly if I have to.

If your area requires the access to guns if tshtf, you might want to think about walking away from everything in favour of relocating to somewhere safer.

Now I have to go and reconfigure the GO bag, and perhaps permanently move it into the car.

booboo's picture

You have hair, be thankful.

Bendromeda Strain's picture

If your area requires the access to guns if tshtf

You think you can boogie off to some place where they won't be needed, if not useful?

Toronto Kid's picture

I think living in a community of good people who respect law and order trumps the need for a gun.  I am going on the no man is an island philosophy. 

But I am astonished at how willing I am to leave it all behind, and how instinctive a decision it is for me.  If staying and fighting it out is your default position, then mad props to you.

I have preps if I have to shelter in place, I just don't value them.  I just didn't know I didn't value them until last night. 

The_Dude's picture

Common culture with like minded people that are willing to defend each other.....quickly being destroyed everywhere here in the US....good luck to you there

MrSteve's picture

Sure you got down voted by some jerks, there's always at least two jerks on ZH.....the wisdom of relocating if you need to pack heat now is just smart planning. If you need to carry now, how much danger will you and loved ones be in "later"? The smart answer is way too much danger, for the low cost of moving to safer ground now. Survival isn't about anything but 100% safekeeping for every one who is important to you. If you plan now, you won't have to walk away, you can sell out at a discount to some miscreat down voters from ZH.

Just sayin'

Curiously_Crazy's picture

I think the downvotes were for the bloody hairbrush. If ones priorities include it, it shows where priorities really lay, and being prepared for a SHTF scenario is not one of them. Just a guess though.

good man's picture

My last pay check was $9500 working 12 hours a week online. My sisters friend has been averaging 15k for months now and she works about 20 hours a week. I can't believe how easy it was once I tried it out. This is what I do... http://goo.gl/bhiamE

Winston Churchill's picture

Hide in plain sight.

booboo's picture

I have a shopping cart and a vagabond outffit. I'm thinking if the stasis^ry to cuff and stuff me I can shit myself, cops are funny about putting a smelly dude in their ride.

q99x2's picture

"we should see massive Federal Reserve and Government intervention in the FX and debt markets to stem what has unquestionably been a panic."

It is controlled by Brussels and software at the FED so what is the big deal. It's their software. They obviously know how to use it.

You BTFD and stop all that nay-saying.

Joebloinvestor's picture

The Fed will repump the stock market, make a few cronies richer, then sieze assets.

ebworthen's picture

1987 crash S&P at 225.

S&P true valuation 2014 = 666.

In order to keep the Ponzi going after 1987 they had to repeal Glass-Steagall, get rid of defined pension plans and move the sheeple into 401K's/I.R.A.'s, and move risk onto the public treasury and off of bank balance sheets.

The "War on Terror" was the add-on after the dot-com bubble popped, must-keep-M.I.C.-humming and churning.

Ignoring the rule-of-law, violating the social contract, and shredding the Constitution has been the add-on after 2008.

Seasmoke's picture

Nice Stache Bill !!!!!

buzzsaw99's picture

i certainly hope he isn't referring to clownbux as capital

edifice's picture

Over 25 years ago, who cares? There actually was a market, then. Today, it's Fed Bubble Land. Always goes up.

Stanley Lord's picture

Just for the record: Paul Jones is one of the good guys on Wall Street.

Freddie's picture

+1

Non-tribesman.

Ray Dalio is another good guy along with maybe Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, James Chanos plus Jim Grant.

I wonder how many here remember FNN?  It was out of So California.  It was a cable show.  John Bollinger was a cameraman there and also a surfer.

debtor of last resort's picture

PPT teams 14 to 21, report immediately. And get the Norwegian state pension fund on the phone.

Crash won't happen bitchez. Distrust in fiat will. We have a few more years to stack / prepare.

Lokking4AnEdge's picture

I still remember from my good old days...Paul Tudor Jones was a Cotton futures trader...made a good name to himself as a very smart trader....

Atomizer's picture

Come monday, the CNBS clan will be coughing up hairballs.

Bossman1967's picture

any idea if the correction has started after Fridays rebel rouser so confused but prepared and actually ready set go

trader1's picture

tyler, are you signalling for a panic crash on monday, 11 aug 2014?

Ness.'s picture

We've already had a 9/11.  

Maybe 8/11 is next.

yogibear's picture

"Well see massive government and Federal intervention"

Haven't  he been having this already? For the last 5 years?

We have had rates at essentually 0 for years now.

 

The Econ Ideal's picture

LOL...someone should remake this video into a modern comedic interpretation and cast the comedian from Reno 911...

(P.S. Bill did end up right on his first call though - the market dipped and sped higher, courtesy of Fed easing and the "redefinition" of all gov't stats)

Agent P's picture

FNN.....CNBC didn't exist until 1989.

Atomizer's picture

Can you imagine the phone calls Oh shit; we have a retarded glance at the market today. Can you visualize the following ticker in 1989? It was quick and resourceful, bring it back. Fuck the deadbeats that cannot speed read. Swiftness is necessary.

smcapmachine's picture

You should have been buying everything in sight at Dow 1700. You'd be very rich today.

Atomizer's picture

I'm already rich, don't buy at the top. You make more money during a correction. Cattle the investment herd, then slaughter for profit.

Blows a kiss.

YesWeKahn's picture

wasn't AIG a dow component?

Atomizer's picture

I love old videos. Thanks Tyler. Market Ticker poster listed a SPX chart, we know.

ShortTheUS's picture

The fact thta Bill Griffeth is relegated to one hour a day is sad... Like good cheese, he's gotten better with age and should definetely have more hosting duties than he does now (and that PBS show doesn't count)

cpnscarlet's picture

What are those fractions on the ticker all about???

Seriously -

Just goes to show that reasonable, prudent analysis can be just as dead wrong as using a Ouija board. Even more so now that all that is in the markets is a decision by the FED the night/week/month before.

Mercantilist's picture

Not to bash PTJ, who happened to be in the hedge fund business at the right time, he was dead wrong about his bear market hypothisis - stocks went up so much from that time that today it looks more like a correction than a crash.  And, I was on the floor of the CME that day, so I can speak to this - I remmebr the FED needed to bail out local Chicago banks and First Options almost went under (they closed their doors the day after the crash).  

This is a different story - but a great look at history....hell, coper traded down to like 50cents after the crash - prices we will never see again.

johnmack's picture

im sorry did the world end after black monday? no

will there be another crash yeah sure why not.

will world come to an end no

honestly everyone needs to chill out and take a breather. My take on preparing for crashes is that human beings never learn but we always "tend' (please note the quote) to fix things...sloppily but eventually. so why not make bank from knowing that idiocy keeps repeating itself.