Common Sense Likely To Silence The Drums Of War

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Ben Tanosborn

Common Sense Likely to Silence the Drums of War

Empire-hawks have had the upper hand in American politics for several decades and, given the shifting economic power taking place in the world, they are now seemingly suicidal, ready to lead us into nuclear holocaust.  Just like Jim Jones did with his followers 36 years ago in Jonestown.  This time, however, the kool-aid is being dispensed by the US mainstream media laced with a different poison: raw propaganda against the Russian Federation and its malefic leader, Vladimir Putin.

The White House, acceding to the war-mongering influence that radiates from the Pentagon, the State Department and Congress, is performing a poorly-written morality play for the world to see, absurdly levying sanctions which will likely affect the leviers (US and EU) as much or more than the intended sanctioned, as Russia answers with quid pro quo economic counter-sanctions. 

Washington may wish to be seen as a white knight defending Ukraine’s territorial integrity; a farce, when in the last year and a half the US has been instrumental in destabilizing that nation with regime change intended to bring the former Soviet republic to the bosom of the West.  The strategy appears motivated not so much by magnanimity, to afford a greater future for a nation which is a true economic basket-case, but to close in to the borders of Russia, economically and militarily.

In a nutshell: keep the Russian bear caged and Putin’s dream of a strong and economically integrated Eurasia unrealized!

Common economic sense, however, is likely to silence the loud drums of war.

Angus Maddison, the late British macro-economist who studied/researched the history of World GDP, claimed that India and China were the biggest economies in the world for almost all of the past 2000 years.  Then the industrial revolution, colonialism and the information revolution entered and changed the mix.

I am well aware of the danger in extrapolating data compiled by the World Bank for a period extending all of a decade, but my curiosity in economics and statistics has won the day.  After some minor subjective geo-political considerations which I anticipate might take place in the next 5 to 10 years, I see the future composition of the World GDP by 2024 as 12 nations claiming 82 percent of the pie and the rest of the world combined accounting for the other 18 percent.  The dozen major economies, with their respective rounded-off share (to the nearest half percent), would line up in this decreasing order: China, 20%; US, 15%; Russia and Brazil, each 7.5%; Japan, 6%; Germany and India, each 5%; Australia and France, each 3.5%; and Canada, Italy and Indonesia, each 3%.  The United Kingdom is likely to submerge into oblivion, no matter how the Scots decide to vote, its two of-age daughters, Australia and Canada, surpassing the mother country’s GDP… in the case of Australia by as much as 25 percent.

Tempted to play with projected GDP figures, for after all it is a nation’s aggregate output that counts – and not the touted per capita figures, one might come up with an Iberian-American economic super-power (a confederation of Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking nations in both the Iberian Peninsula and the Americas) that overall would be second only to China, with approximately 18 percent of the pie.

And, of course, we could also create in the same fashion a Eurasian economic block that would add Turkey, Ukraine and a few other former Soviet republics to the Russian Federation that would make geopolitical sense and combine to over 10 percent of the World GDP.  Those who cannot see Turkey in league with Russia should be reminded of the great Turkish reformer, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, who if alive today might find favor in allying with Putin rather than begging second rate treatment if joining the European Union, while also continuing as a member of an aggressive US-lackey NATO.  An unlikely event, I know… yet, who would have said a century ago that such great statesman and secularist, Atatürk, would come out of Salonika to remake the soul of the Ottoman Empire?

Although the US seems intent in playing the drums of war, perhaps realizing that its economic power is slowly headed for oblivion, to join the likes of Japan and the UK, American firms waving international flags don’t have the appetite for war that neocon elitists in the State Department or star-studded bellicosarians in the halls of the Pentagon have.  Not at all!  And here is where the feared industrial-military complex hopefully falls apart as globalist firms give their overall support to peace as a preferred alternative to the specter of a nuclear holocaust.  Russia doesn’t want any military confrontation, nor does China, nor do American and European corporate entities that see no future in suicide.

Americans need not drink the kool-aid offered by John McCain and his ilk in the Pentagon, Congress or the State Department; nor should they listen to the sad sack windmill-mouthpiece they have enlisted in the White House: Barack Obama.

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q99x2's picture

Ya we won. Back to work bitchez.

uno's picture

when you say back to work you do mean sit on your ass and get your .gov handouts.  That's the American way.

Rootin' for Putin's picture

If you cut every corner, you'll have more time for play!

Its the American Way! -Shary Bobbins
Duffminster's picture

They know this.  Don't be surprised if they don't have another False Flag planned.  They figure if they could pull off 9/11, maybe a new one based on ISIS will be just as easy.

Some even believe ISIS is headed by some wester intelligence setting up just such conditions.  I doubt it but it would not surprise me in the least

Paveway IV's picture

Planned? Fake ISIS IS the false flag. It just went south on them when ISIS discovered how profitable the oil business actually was. 

Up until then, Iraq was going exactly as planned. The Sunni ethnic-cleansing temp, Maliki, has done his job. Israel and the U.S. have no further need for him, so he's history. His replacement (as forseen by CNN and dual-citizen U.S. congressmen) will be an Israeli-friendly Kurd. Either the current president, Jalal Talabani (Kurdish) or some other hand-picked U.S./Israeli Kurdish stooge. Now, what are the chances of that in a country that's 85% non-Kurds?

I'm not anti-Kurdish. In fact, I'm very much in favor of a Kurdish state, as long as it doesn't screw over non-Kurds like the Turkmen, Yazidis, etc. The Kurdish people are salt-of-the-earth, but that's seen far more in Western (Syrian) Kurdistan. Their militias are made up of their neighbors - all races and religions. They fight for their farms and homes, not for more land. It's the Syrian Kurds peshmerga and not Iraqi Kurds peshmerga that are fighting their way into the mountains to rescue the Yazidis and help them get to safety in Syrian Kurdistan. Where's the Iraqi peshmerga? Protecting the leaders in Erbil, of course.

In fact, Massoud Barzani - current leader of the semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan - even objected to the Syrian Kurds delcaring autonomy from Syria earlier this year. You see, some Kurds are just more equal than others. 

Zionophobic? You decide:

Ethnic Kurds were less than 10% of Iraq's population before the Syrian war. They're now maybe 12% counting Syrian refugees. Yazidis, Shabaks, Turkmen and Assyrians are not Kurds. So ever since Israel and the U.S. have been nosing around Kurdish politics (four decades at least), the boundaries of Iraqi Kurdistan kept increasing - usually to include non-Kurdish populations or 'undiscoverd', unpopulated oil-bearing lands. Today, the disputed borders of Iraqi Kurdistan now cover about 17% of Iraq, even though the ethnic Kurdish people readily admit far less than 10% was historically settled by Kurds. Western MSM keeps up the land-grabbing narrative by repeating "...about a fifth of Iraq..." is Kurdish. The current Kurdish-claimed land holds about 33% of Iraqi's known oil reserves. Can you see Israel's parasitic influence here?

20% of Iran's current parliment represent Kurdish parties. Those members are mostly bought and paid for by Israeli or big oil interests. Jalal Talabani, Iraq's 80-year-old  president, is Kurdish. Now can you see Israel's influence? How does just over 10% of Iraqi's population manage to claim a disproportionate share of the country's natural resources, land and government?

Israel wins either way: the Iraqi government is their bitch, and/or an independent Iraqi Kurdistan is their bitch. Maliki was the Sunni exterminator and his services are no longer needed. Israel wants the Northern Iraq's oil and it's time for the corrupt, paid-off Iraqi Kurdish politicians to deliver. If ISIS has gone off-script after that same oil, then Israel will demand thier American dual-citizen congressional bitches send over some fresh meat to clean things up.

Why is everyone on earth trying to prevent Israel from getting what's rightfully theirs: Iraq's oil? I think I read that God gave it to them in the New York Times. 

acetinker's picture

Dayum, Paveway!  Can't think of another time it's been summed up so clearly.  There's another layer, which your words betray.  The debt-money system needs the energy of the middle east to survive.  It has been a clusterfuck from day one.

It will continue to be a clusterfuck until and unless all nations abolish their central banks.  This fkn 'growth meme' is gettin' tired.  I think we'd do just fine with each other working to support each other.  You disagree?

I didn't think you would, just askin'.

acetinker's picture

fkn dupes are starting piss me off.  u don't wanna piss me off!

acetinker's picture

If by Western Intelligence (which is an oxymoron of the highest order), you mean Mossad, then yeah.

Otrader's picture

They're practicing the roof top dance of joy right now.

Duffminster's picture

They know this.  Don't be surprised if they don't have another False Flag planned.  They figure if they could pull off 9/11, maybe a new one based on ISIS will be just as easy.

Some even believe ISIS is headed by some wester intelligence setting up just such conditions.  I doubt it but it would not surprise me in the least

Lost My Shorts's picture

Here is an interesting account, reflecting views of the NYDC establishment but not in the jingoistic terms reserved for the proles:

The New Yorker follows Russia closely, and shows obvious sympathy for the liberal-democratic-westernizing side.  But still some interesting points made:  you can read behind the lines and see how clueless and unengaged Obama has been personally; Russian relations and the vaunted "reset" were managed under Obama by a clueless academic who is also an active, long-term supporter of the liberal-democratic-westernizing side; the "reset" was little more than lip service; Western elites have a strong personal distaste for Putin on top of whatever economic interests are in play.

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

I saw the title of this article and since when did "common sense" stop war? The world is tied to the hip with the US politically and economically. They can not just suddenly get up and leave without consequences. This author is too optimistic.

Supafly's picture

If it becomes the last option, maybe.  We've staged many wars in the last several years with unwilling participants that were weak.  Now we face strong unwilling participants and fatigue of an American population that isn't so easily distracted from their reality any more.  We'll see.  


Keyser's picture

It was reported that US public outrage to the suggestion of entering Syria caused Obama to back down in that instance, so perhaps there is hope... 

SofaPapa's picture

As naive as this sounds, the American Empire, aside from its military and economic capabilities, has also traditionally had a moral and beneficial facade to it.  After WWII for the first 40 years, when people looked around the world, the US was still either the freest or near the top of the list of the freest countries.  Outside of government, people were still relatively left to their devices to rise or fall - within of course the age-old boundaries of the class to which they were born.  It wasn't perfect, and the government was doing all the evil it currently does (Korea, Vietnam, Iran, etc.), but it was good enough to be better than most for its citizens.

That is what has changed, and that is why we are on the downslope from imperial peak now: The United States no longer benefits its citizens any more than any other country, and worse yet, there are now serious DISadvantages to being a US citizen.  Our taxation is insanely intrusive, the government has claimed the right to summarily execute citizens it finds crossing its path, and no one is free anymore to communicate even with their own children without having the government watching over their shoulder.  This is insanity.

In other words, the American dream is increasingly seen (both at home as well as abroad) as a nightmare.  That is why the US is falling.  Military might still needs to be backed up by a story.  People need something to fight for.  What has the US government / MIC / MSM / corporatocracy left behind as an ideal that people are willing to throw their spirits into to defend?

MrPalladium's picture

Remember that at the start of WW1 and WW2 there was far less international trade than there is now. Nations were largely autarchic rasing most of their own food and producing most of their own manufactured goods. Power came from the acquisition of additional land, hence the drive for war as a means of enhancing national power.

In 2014 the advanced economies are far more dependent upon trade with other nations than they were 100 or 80 years ago. Thus limited (conventional) wars against capable opponents are far more destructive to the economic base and to the political power of existing govermental regimes. And tactical and regional nuclear weapons make the political and economic elites of a nation the front line troops lined up for slaughter in the trenches.

The danger, of course is that politics attracts sociopathic schemers and the history of WW1 and WW2 shows just how sociopathic they were and still are. Neverless, sociopaths have a highly developed instinct for survival and I think 21st Century war is out of the question.

SofaPapa's picture

I hope you're right about this.  I've been thinking a lot today about deluded thinking.  The trouble with deluded thinking is that those doing it cannot escape it.  Even if they rationally can see the logical fallacy, the thought process continues anyway.  Ask any addict.  They knew their drug of choice was killing them, but they couldn't let it go.  If that dynamic holds with "power addicts", our species may be eliminated by the small minority of very sick individuals who are drawn to wield power such as this.

Bottom line, are these sociopaths capable of recognizing the reality that they actually can't win a nuclear exchange, or will they start one, under the deluded thought process saying, "well... but if we strike hard enough first,..."?

Our survival hangs on this question.

MrPalladium's picture

Our survival depends upon whether the corporate and commerical interests with world wide operations have control of the politicians. In past wars, you tried to pick the winner and buy its sovereign bonds and local stocks. But nuclear war will make the games played by the Rothchilds in past wars a certain money loser both for international corporations operating in countries on both sides in the war, as well as stock investors who bet that an unscathed winner will emerge.

Bad business and bad bets all around. The question is whioh elites have the power to control the outcomes, commercial elites or NGO elites with ideological agendas.

darkpool2's picture

Correct......nothing, nada, zilch.
I live on and around a piece of dirt that i call home and which provides food , shelter and lifestyle for my family. The rest of the dirt contained within the notianal boundaries of the "country" that i happen to live in, is of little importance. As and when it no longer suits me to be here, i will upstakes and find another piece of dirt. ( of course this all supposes you have worked hard and learned things and accumulated some mobile assets ! )

Down arrow me all you sheep. ;)

Freddie's picture

The USA has been shit since the Civil War for the same european tribal bankster families who own The Fed.  1.1 million Americans murdered during the Civil War for nothing.

Otrader's picture

The USA has been shit since the Civil War for the same european tribal bankster families who own The Fed.  1.1 million Americans murdered during the Civil War for nothing.

In the early days, the tribal bankster family even managed to kill lord Jesus.   Nothing can stand in their evil ways.  in their own backyard stands the Gazans and genocide is somehow justified despite the 50+ year land grab.

August's picture

It's a sad irony that in the 20th century, many American Southrons were tricked into making a deal with the federal devil:  in exchange for getting to kill brown people here and there across the planet, they were only required to 1) cheer the federal flag, and 2) not ask too many questions.

KenShabby's picture

US public outrage? Seriously? I don't believe that for a minute. Everyone I know doesn't know shit about the Syria fiasco and I thought I knew some level-headed people with brains. Turns out they're all a bunch of US media propaganda zombies. They're all gung ho for kicking the shit out that "evil" Putin. If I hear another Hitler analogy I will throw up. It's really disappointing and i've pretty much given up talking to anyone about politics and especially Obama. Fucking zombies to the very last one. We are doomed.

Renfield's picture

When even small words aren't going to work, I find it's more effective to stay quiet, allow the MSM-follower to air their opinion, and then just completely refuse to support or agree with it. You know, give back a little of that passive-aggressive 'tinfoil' treatment. :-) It helps to ask questions concerning the logic or facts of their position, too. If you ask diplomatically, for information, without arguing, it tends to expose that the person has no good answer in a way that even they can see.

Well, sometimes, anyway.

El Vaquero's picture

Most of the people that I regularly associate with are on the same page as I am.  Most are disgusted by the hypocrisy that comes out of DC.  There is hope for the future, but we will see dark times.  Putin could be another Stalin or Hitler for all I know, but thus far, his actions have been consistent with him being a dyed-in-the-wool statist who wants what is best for Russia and what is best for Putin.  I don't trust him, but I'm not going to demonize him without cause, especially not with some of the shit that we've been pulling. 


To the NSA:  Knowing that the US has been up to some very dirty shit, if we get into a thermonuclear war, and I survive, tell your masters that I'll place a majority of the blame on them.  There will be no punishment too great.  Scaphism when there is time, or just staple their peckers to a board, shove a glass rod up it, then vigorously apply a hammer and let infection take them when there is not time.

Otrader's picture

I face the same zombies daily.  It's heart breaking when I hear the words 'but, they have intel on this stuff '


barre-de-rire's picture

don't be wrong, EU  people do not hate USA people.  EU people hate USA .GOVS behavior over the world.


not the same thing, if usa people mass riot & kill every single banker, gov member, even president, i bet my hat about 1 million EU ppl find their way to go usa to help you to clean the system.

WhackoWarner's picture

OBAMA is meaningless. USA does not vote for leaders anymore.  Might as well elect a Kardashian to give fashion tips

TideFighter's picture

In the Wild Wild West, Kimosobee sleep with Tonto, "He has a big stick, believe me!"  

Carpenter1's picture

Yes, common sense has always prevailed over war.

Who is this fool? He needs to pick up a history book for the first time in his life.

Toxicosis's picture

Appears he is a young and naive fool.  Common sense is wholly uncommon.   This is an article written by an author with little clarity of the history of human behavior, ridiculous assertions, a lack of common sense, and an entire vat of magical thinking.  Seems more appropriate you might find this blathering penmanship propagandized at Business Insider rather than Zero Hedge.  However, it is good to see who's asleep or awake round here.

Toxicosis's picture

Sorry I have a retraction, he is an old and naive fool.

Sparkey's picture

Carpenter he didn't say Common sense 'always' prevails over war, but he opines, it could be possible, I think this may be possible this time,,,just maybe of course,,, still, Rex Tillerson and the board of Exxon are staying the course and fufilling their contract in Russia, I take that as saying, the Board of Directors is betting this will blow over like last year's tempests did, Will it? or is this really the big one, the one we've known was coming for a long time as we hoped and prayed sanity would rule once more and we could postpone the Apoclaspe at least until I die of natural causes.

Exxon is betting one way, what are they betting against? Well if wars are fought to supress evil, at least from one side, there is a lot of evil in the world reflected in the posts here on ZH, Pictures of children's bodies with their heads cut off by ISIS, stories of people rounded up and sold in "the" Slave market? (Did you know this existed?), and lots more Equal or worse attrocities not the least of which; Shades of Poland in the 40ties, bound men being shot !n the head on the edge of a mass grave, bodies unceremoniously dumped in the hole

Who unleashed this on the world? and what was their motive? And do we really think this will never come to our neighbor hood!

I suspect the authors of this script grew up in sheltered circumstances where their sense of self worth and privlidge was reinforced daily and their omnipotence was never challenged. People, conditioned this way from birth, can, in the begining, have total confidence they can loose chaos onto the world and control it's out come, and write a script that lets them, not only retain, but increase their wealth and privildges, this is how things start, lots of confidence and a 'good' script, of course, in reality nothing is just what was planned, so good rewrite people are required to adjust the script and achieve the desired outcome, as the performance unfolds things which wern't imagined in the original script seem to appear at  ever greater frequency, and ever greater urgency, for example, The renewed bombing of Iraq, 'Which Pres. Obama says; won't be over soon! is one of those 'unexpected' events I think, what a test for the writers, can they write a script which lets us all be winners or is  Armageddon to be our fate! (It's a great play, lots of, end of seat, knuckle biting action, sometimes you wish it would end so you could go home and rest, then you realize 'You are at home' no escape now

If you are a Praying person pray that God give the writers wisdom, for they truly have all our fates in their hands!



Freddie's picture

Retarded and evil Democrats and liberals voted for this TWICE.  I wish them Ebola.

db51's picture

Drone't bomb me Bro.

logicalman's picture

So, Global Corporatocracy is obviously a good thing and will improve everyones lives! /sarc

uno's picture

anyone see the constant anti-Russia propoganda.  One day there were 10 articles, if you read the comments the people see through it.  I do not even look at the US MSM crap, way too transparent.  I would assume CIA-TV (aka CNN) is at the front.

AssFire's picture

Exactly uno, fake news with nothing factual. When I started reading this I was hoping it would mention this :

The US government has grown strangely quiet on the accusation that it was Russia or her allies that brought down the Malaysian airliner with a Buk anti-aircraft missile," Paul said on his news website on Thursday.

adeptish's picture

The DM is a strange beast, it will show 100 comments on a controversial story yet some comments will have 500 or so up or down arrows. Clear manipulation. I mean, do they even realise their duplicity?

At least DM allows comments. No Australian paper of note allows comments. In Canada all posts are severely monitored (G&M and National Post) and deleted summarily. CNN and USA Today, lol.

The voting format here on ZH is about the best there is. Even if I don't agree with a comment, I get to read it and also get to see what everyone else here thinks about it. 


Freddie's picture

Read Cameron's Wiki.  He is tribe and his family and wife's family have raised money for wars for the Red Shield.  They want war,

jballz's picture

When did common sense ever stop a war machine?

logicalman's picture

Who knows.

Nobody even mentions the wars that didn't happen.

Having said that, I doubt it's a big number.

seek's picture

Just recently, it stopped us from going into Syria. TPTB were pushing it hard and while the media downplayed the public's response, reps were literally getting their phone systems overloaded with negative calls -- bad enough that even rigged elections wouldn't get them through the firestorm.

So it's rare, but it happens, and it looks like Americans in general are getting pretty tired of war, especially these special-interests wars.

shiftless's picture

"So it's rare, but it happens, and it looks like Americans in general are getting pretty tired of war, especially these special-interests wars."

So does that mean the troops are going to lay down their arms and refuse to fight when the big "OMG Russia just nuked New York!" false flag comes?

CheapBastard's picture

I listened to Billiary on the morning shows today. She says we're too pieceful.

Curious Gorge's picture

No, it just means that the cannon fodder that is used, will be that much more displaced from reality. I love my fellow veterans, but man, some of them are not the sharpest tools in the shed. Those that see it for what it is, will be the minority me thinks. 




What do you call two gay Irishmen?


Gerald Fitzpatrick and Patrick Fitzgerald. 


P.S. Don't care if you're gay, it's just a joke. Also, if you're offended, grow a thicker skin. 

Razor_Edge's picture

IN fact it's Patrick Fitzmaurice and Maurice Fitzpatrick.