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"The Train Wreck Is Coming," David Stockman Warns, "All Hell Will Break Loose"
Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,
Transcript of David Stockman Interview on King World News
Eric King: “David, the man who is counsel to big money around the world, Michael Belkin, just spoke with KWN and issued a dire warning for the financial markets. I just wondered how you see things at this point with the Dow recently tumbling and everything that is happening across the globe? What should we expect?”
Stockman: “Well, the watchword at this point is stay out of harm’s way. We are headed into a perfect storm of policy failures. This is not simply a failure by the Fed, which has inflated this massive bubble and painted itself into a corner with no clue how to get out, but we are also seeing an absolute failure of American world dominance….
Our foreign policy is collapsing everywhere and yet the Washington war party keeps wanting to do more of the same. This confrontation with Putin is utterly out of hand and unnecessary. Now we have a trade war going that is going to ricochet through an already fragile European economy.
We hear today that Obama is considering going back into Iraq. What is he thinking? If you layer that on top of an already fragile financial bubble that is waiting to burst, I think we are in a zone of extreme danger. It’s hard to predict whether this will be the big, destructive bear market that inevitably has to come, or simply just another dip that encourages the robots and the trained seals on Wall Street to buy for another move higher. But one of these times we are going to have a big failure and I don’t think it’s too far down the road.
If you look at the stock market it has gone nearly straight up for the last 64 months. If you look at the chart of the S&P 500 you can see that year after year the dips get shallower and more infrequent and that is not a healthy chart. That is a sign of a market that is not discounting the actual real world future, but simply trading the word clouds and the liquidity that is being injected by not only our central bank, but central banks around the world.
The difficulty is that I don’t believe this central bank ‘act’ can be kept up. We have had such tremendous expansions of balance sheets that even the central bankers are now beginning to second guess themselves, become divided among themselves, and begin to worry about how they get out of the corner they have painted themselves into.
So those are the factors that will ultimately cause a major collapse. It’s just a question of when the black swan comes flying in, or when the confidence in this whole central banking illusion finally breaks down in the markets.”
Eric King: “Michael Belkin also told KWN that the Fed doesn’t understand the leverage they have created. Their easy money policy and money printing funnels into all kinds of hedge funds in mid-town Manhattan and according to Belkin, ‘they leverage up the wazoo in al these weird, arcane derivatives.’ He warned a great deleveraging is coming that is going to feed on itself.”
Stockman: “Yes. I think the whole global financial system is booby trapped with both visible and hidden leverage. The problem with the Fed, and Yellen in particular, is that they are looking at a very narrow set of indicators. For instance, the nominal balance sheets of the big banks.
But the biggest source of leverage in the economy today is the whole area of structured finance and options trading of one type or another. These Wall Street mechanisms are inherently leveraged; and the market has been coiled up like a spring everywhere owing to the endless bid funded by that massive leverage. Well, on the way up this forces assets values to continue to inflate and rise. But on the way down, when these positions are liquidated, the adjustment can become very violent in the other direction.”
Eric King: “It sounds like we have a train wreck in front of us.”
Stockman: “Train wreck is a pretty good term to describe what is coming. But this train wreck isn’t simply going to hit a wall out of the blue. Actually, it has been forming and accumulating and expanding for many years now, and yet it has simply been ignored, particularly by the financial markets which have ridden this bubble to these extreme and historic heights.
But when you take the balance sheet of the Fed from $900 billion to $4.5 trillion in less than 70 months, and when that pattern is replicated around the world, that is a train wreck in slow motion. The only issue is, when does it hit the wall? The answer to that question is it’s not very far down the road, and I can promise you that is when all hell is going to break loose.”
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Moochelle and Hitlery get married and run for Prez & VP in 2016. Whore-ward!
How about....
President dissolves Congress.
Myra account contributions mandatory.
Door to door searches for 'contraband' (firearms and PMs included) on a normal basis (read everyday).
WW3 actually starts.
Just to name a few...?
Stock market crash.
Government theft of retirement accounts, but it'll be done for "our own good" to protect us from those evil financial advisors/Wall Street/whatever boogie man they name.
QEULTRA®
Death of the dollar
Probably in about that order, barring a global pandemic or WWIII or some other bullshit that could happen or not. Whatever the path we take, events are going to start happening on a more and more compressed time frame. Though the theft and QEULTRA® could easily overlap. We've waited nearly 6 years since Lehman not believing that shit could go on this long, and when shit does start to go south, even those who know what's coming are going to be surprised, in large part because this shitshow has gone on for so long in Wile E. Coyote mode as to be unbelievable.
That's my timeline too
thats what im waiting for too, the market plunge and retirement account grab. there is just too much money in peoples retirement accounts and pensions for the govs to pass up. It could potentially put off the need for more QE. They will sell it as 'protecting average middle class working people from the predations of wall street' or some such nonsense, and it will be mandatory for 10/20/30% of your 401k/IRA/pension to invested in "the safety and security of USTs, backed by the full faith and credit of the US government". In that manner, making people pile trillions into long term us gov debt would keep yeilds nice and low, maybe not needing the fed to intervene. Obviously this won't work forever, but none of this will. But that, in my mind, will be the tipping point
Right, and during the initial stock market crash, UST yeilds will likely go down as investors take a flight into "safety." It is when that effect wears off that the government theft will happen. I see more QE as a means to try to save our financial system as the derivatives start to come unwound and shadow banking in general starts to fly apart. I see two different processes, one public and one private, happening. Possibly one after the other, or possibly simultaneously.
Of course, all of that is dependant on external forces (Read: China, Russia, etc...) not exerting too much influence. Russia is trying to do to us what we did to the USSR: Take an already doomed system and try to push it over the edge even faster. They might very well be successful. Now, if we can just avoid the thermonuclear exchange in the process...
Moochelle, declaring his rule, after pulling off his wig and dropping his skirt while his pump is on the neck of his former lover. I think that would be pretty close to full retard.
price fixing, rationing, ban on precious metals. gun confiscation, bans on body armor etc...
When the lawbreaking (by the government) loses all pretense of legitimacy. In other words, law by decree. This is starting to show up already, but it'll be really over the top stuff -- seizure of bank balances (like Cyrpress), hasty bans (gold, firearms, ammo, likely medicines, and education in "dark arts" like gardening and self-reliance skills), capital controls, travel controls (ironically the US will likely have one-way borders where people can get in but not out) and of course, outright censorship. If the internet isn't shut down, I could still see a DHS takeover of the DNS system with a BS national security excuse, which would let them control 99% of what people see.
The big flag will be nationalization of one form or another of state-level assets, like state national guard units to preclude them being used by the states -- or even for them to be used against the states. Likely some sort of executive order giving the TSA or TSA-like entity local police powers, or the reverse, using the DHS to nationalize local police. There have been lots of stories about how badly the Feds want a national police force. However it's accomplished that will be one of the bigger warning signs.
That's if everying goes to TPTB plan to retain power. It's entirely possible we see something happen more rapidly where they can't move fast enough -- the core part of the USSR fell apart in just 5 months. If the US fell in a similar way, all the executive declarations of power could happen, but the implementation of them wouldn't stand a chance as it's doubtful police (especially in the western states) would agree to become federalized and turn against local governments in such a short time span.
Dmitry Orlov seems a propos here. This is from 2006, "Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US". Very educational and well worth the short time to read the entire thing on the site:
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2006-12-04/closing-collapse-gap-ussr-w...
"Continuing with our list of superpower similarities, many of the problems that sunk the Soviet Union are now endangering the United States as well. Such as a huge, well-equipped, very expensive military, with no clear mission, bogged down in fighting Muslim insurgents. Such as energy shortfalls linked to peaking oil production. Such as a persistently unfavorable trade balance, resulting in runaway foreign debt. Add to that a delusional self-image, an inflexible ideology, and an unresponsive political system.
"An economic collapse is amazing to observe, and very interesting if described accurately and in detail. A general description tends to fall short of the mark, but let me try. An economic arrangement can continue for quite some time after it becomes untenable, through sheer inertia. But at some point a tide of broken promises and invalidated assumptions sweeps it all out to sea. One such untenable arrangement rests on the notion that it is possible to perpetually borrow more and more money from abroad, to pay for more and more energy imports, while the price of these imports continues to double every few years. Free money with which to buy energy equals free energy, and free energy does not occur in nature. This must therefore be a transient condition. When the flow of energy snaps back toward equilibrium, much of the US economy will be forced to shut down.
"I've described what happened to Russia in some detail in one of my articles, which is available on SurvivingPeakOil.com. I don't see why what happens to the United States should be entirely dissimilar, at least in general terms. The specifics will be different, and we will get to them in a moment. We should certainly expect shortages of fuel, food, medicine, and countless consumer items, outages of electricity, gas, and water, breakdowns in transportation systems and other infrastructure, hyperinflation, widespread shutdowns and mass layoffs, along with a lot of despair, confusion, violence, and lawlessness. We definitely should not expect any grand rescue plans, innovative technology programs, or miracles of social cohesion."
Tyler, how about an ORLOV article sometime, waddayasay?
Stockman is correct, but it might take a few more years for a full blown crash to happen.
And thus we have war.
I know it isn't good form to be isolationist, but by golly I'm tired of blowing things up ... including American service men and women ... in foreign places.
When the markets starts to crash, you can bet your ass there will be WOAR.
Does this mean Long on Caskets and Yellow Ribbon? Just askin
I don't think it "start's to crash". There will be NO time to react. I think it will crash so quickly that only those who expected and prepared for it will survive; both financially, and, sadly, literally. What follows will not be "war", but revolution.
"expected and prepared"
AKA...to "Buffet the Market" or the "Soros Technique".
We always have war. That is everlasting.
It’s just a question of when the black swan comes flying in, or when the confidence in this whole central banking illusion finally breaks down in the markets
Why can't the algorithms simply be programmed for unshakable confidence? For human participants, why not just pay them to be confident?
Seems to me that any meaningful break in confidence has to come from the plebs, and that would be confidence in things like air conditioning, Big Macs, Walmart, and pickup trucks.
...or a hiccup in the EBT.
Precisely.
Only when the bread and/or circuses stop, will there be a meaningful confidence problem. Until then, party on, at the level and in the manner allowed by one's station in life.
Serial junker at work.
Which brings into question "Is JPMC TBTF because they manage the EBT accounts?"
I get amused with all the hand-wringing 'round here over the "mega-powerful-entitled-poor-people" voting themselves crazy privileges, which carries a core of truth, but glosses over the meaningful truth that none of this happens unless it protects or benefits the patrician class.
Damn Son, you've got a hater.
And it ain't me.
Agreed, but I think few of us hand wring over their handouts rather the set of behaviours facilitated and encouraged by the hand outs. Remember when at Jellystone don't feed Yogi it makes him dependant and dangerous..
Yogi is dangerous to who? Not to J.P. Morgan.
Take the lunch bucket away and you will find out real quick.. No, not to JP morgan Yogi is far too ignorant by design to even know of JP Morgan..
Spastica Rex,
There are some truht to what you are saying.
There's a reason why he is REX (king)
It's for the kids
Report: NY owes schools $5.9Bhttp://www.wgrz.com/story/news/education/2014/08/07/report-new-york-shor...
It hits the wall when they stop printing. No sooner, no later. There is no reason why they can't slowly turn 4.5 trillion into 45 trillion and then 450 trillion. It is not the printing that causes confidence to fail. It is the sudden shift and/or stop that kills things. Just like jumping off a cliff
My bet the event will take place in 2015. If it happens sooner, the better. Time to purge the parasites.
Double post. Maintenance screen shot. Tyler, can you bring back Marla smoking in the cave. Meditation??? Something. Can't remember. Ha ha ha.
1 Quadrillion or bust!
AEROSMITH - Train Kept A Rollin' ,1974
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxXI2BPRzaA
X
The thing I'm amazed at, is how the fight with Putin started like 10 minutes after the closing ceremony at the Olympics.
Same with the WorldCup. Israel started pounding Gaza right after and let's not forget BRICS bank and the warning shot to the world with MH17.
It's all on the elite's timetable. Check the global schedule for elite economic and political conventions. If their calendar is clear, then there's time for war.
They will print to infinity. Don't look at the stock market. They won't let that go down ever.
They can't let it go down.
Pension funds ... retirement ... ever wonder what happens when they get a negative 40% return when they are expected to make at least 8-10%. What happens to retirement benefits?
These guys haven't prevented a crash, they'd made it decades longer while they make themselves solvent. The trouble of course is that more debt doesn't make you solvent.
Which is why they're sweating the "credit" issue.
Nowhere else can they pay pension funds contracted interest ~AND~ make hefty bonuses for themselves.
Storm is arising. Lowering (or raising) FICO scores to bait new players is a dead end.
Surely there can't be all that many greater fools left.
Oh, hang on a sec......
The funniest words in English, French or German, are "pension" and "retirement."
"Save a human, guillotine a bankster."
So in retirement we can buy our joint pain ointment for $60,000,000 a tube, no problem.
You really think the central banks are going to be able to keep this charade afloat for decades? Not in a million years do they have the knowledge for that kind of control. They really don't know what they are doing now, or understand the effects of what they are doing, any more than Ben knew when subprime was "contained". They know no more now than they did then. They blindly opened up the country's credit card and have blown through it's limits and more. They understand nothing of the long term consequences of what they have done. No clue. You can't engineer an incredibly complex decades long charade of the entire market with the complete lack of understanding and seat of the pants operations going on at the central banks. It will blow up. No doubt.
If Putin wanted to, he could kick that first domino over today.. but he doesn't- he's gotta do a little local house cleaning and get the Germ...erh, Europeans in line first.
The end of the US petro-dollar will not be easy. Russia and China it's the only way to win.
The train has already hit the wall. the box cars are slowly piling up behind the engine, the bankers & elites are in the last few cars drinking & partying, it is when those cars suddenly come in to contact with the cars directly in front of them that the realization will be recognized.
The train hasn't hit the wall just yet. It has speeded up and is now running faster than the track speed limit so it is bouncing around a bit heading for the tight curve.
The banksters are indeed in the last car but they have a speed of light connection to the front of the engine and will depart gracefully in their helicopter, currently on the roof with the rotors turning, half a nanosecond after the train jumps the track and the market takes the turn down. Their PMs are already on a boat out of town.
The money quote....when you take the balance sheet of the Fed from $900 billion to $4.5 trillion in less than 70 months, and when that pattern is replicated around the world, that is a train wreck in slow motion.
I personally believe that, like in 1929, the banksters are planning to get off the train and then loot more wealth from the wreckage.
"Got guillotine?"
No guillotine, but I have a mean machete.
Forward (over the cliff)!
Back then tho' if you didn't work, you'd starve.
Here in the nanny goat state starving today isn't an option easily comprehended, and the "loot" is rehypothecated bullshit.
No guillotines. That's al quada, ISIS type tactics. Cruel and Unusual punishment bars such activity. I say surgically remove their sex organs to make sure they cannot reproduce, subject them to waterboarding to extract confessions (The Supremes and the Gov have cleared this as Constitutional) and then parachute them all into Mosul to help clean up the ISIS problem they created. Monitor their activity, and then take them out in a clean and humane manner with drone strikes once their mission has been fulfilled. This too has been deemed Constitutionally permissible by the Supremes and both political parties in our Gov.
.."get off the train and then loot more wealth from the wreckage"..
..think of it as a combination Heimlich/Cornhole manuver.. " looks like a stuck chicken bone"
-"maybe ya better put a little ice on it"..
This year is the start of the collapse, who knows when the momentum will pick up speed and hit the tipping point. The train is running and Yellen is driving with no brakes.
If we still had real markets conveying information about supply and demand, then a classic crash (selling panic, plunging prices, etc.) would be likely. But given the utterly corrupted nature of global markets today, I think a "full stop" scenario is more likely. We'll wake up one morning to find no-bid, no-offer, and no way to buy, sell, or quote prices. The MSM will say the markets are "closed," but it would be more accurate to say that the market doesn't exist, and hasn't for some time.
Driving that train,
...high on QE
Aw, Man! Now you got that thing stuck in my head!
http://www.metrolyrics.com/casey-jones-lyrics-grateful-dead.html
Not funny putting the NSA's phone number in your bio, phone sex with the operator was a one-way f*ckin'.
frogs in a pot
so boring to wait days after days the woar...
stop tryin to save failing system & finish it so we can kill each others and enjoying the back to the futur after 10 years of off grid.
all that electronic banking crap is not smart, off grid will be just fun to see reality of the bailing out from some army group to others fridges.
yipikayee mother fucker !
Janet Yellen is so ugly... she'd make a train take a dirt road!
Makes you wonder what bred her!
The devil and some unknown type of dog -it's hard to tell -but I'm no expert in this field.
Maybe Kate Upton should get the top job at the FED? That would make a difference?
a hatful of assholes is a thing of beauty in comparison
.."a hatful of assholes is a thing of beauty in comparison "..
I've had to stop eating oatmeal..
well if all this doom and gloom that we have all been reading about from all these websites from alex jones to breitbart to yes zerohedge et al is going to happen why oesn t it hurry up and frickin well happen !!! .
we ve been waiting fir over r two years now but all these savants never tell us WHEN but only that IT WILL ............SOMEDAY .
As will the dead rise up from the Mount of Olives and Christ and the Antichrist fight it out at Armageddon in the final battke of good vs evil ......SOMEDAY !!!!
...... IN FACT I WISH IT WOULD HAPPEN BEFORE 11SEP 2014 COZ I VE GOT the mother of all shorts on the s and p 500 expiry WHICH AT THE MOMENT IS SHIWING A FRICKIN HUMUNGOUS LOSS !!!
Not that soon. Ive half a cow to pick up from the butcher Nov 22nd. After that, the world can end. Free range beef...yummy. Ill stuff one of my free range chickens with a filet wrapped in bacon. I need to eat.
Ya gonna jerk that beef, or just hope that your freezer keeps working? (Not a /sarc.)
A lot of us have been impressed / depressed with the Feds' ability to keep the balls in the air for this long.
Most folks who see what's coming seem to have underestimated the central banks' resourcefulness, creativity, and treachery.
That small thumbnail photo of the train at start of this article is a picture of the famous Montparnasse derailment in Paris in October 1895. Look at the photo on the internet.
I'm glad to finally read an article off KWN that is not about "SILVER AND GOLD ABOUT TO EXPLODE!!!!!"
Now...about trains and such....
Savoy Brown "Hell Bound Train"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlqqeobOJvg
Central Banksters can only dance on the head of a pin for so long and then they will get tired. Runaway freight trains
don't eventually stop until they crash. The Hegelian Spiral
initiated by the dissolution of Glass-Steagall is the real freight train wreck about to happen and it cannot be stopped. Central Banksters know that this train wreck cannot be stopped or even mitigated effectively and that explains why they are ignoring the obvious that all of us are pointing out every day. The theater of the absurd is in play here IMHO. The talking heads don't have brains and the people that do have brains are stepping back and wondering how to take cover before SHTF. This most certainly cannot continue on indefinitely either. One cannot move to the bush and hope to survive without being able to hunt big game
and most don't know square one about survival except real hunters and fishermen. In brief, we are all doomed to mass starvation and disease through a lack of electricity and running fresh water. Survivalists may understand the theories of survival but when they actually put theory to practice they will fail and die en masse. This event will be extreme for the world and few will survive in structured enclaves. I figure the SHTF in 2015 for sure.
I have held Stockman's opinions for a long time, since 2006 really. I was gratified to see 2008 burst on the scene, it was obvious a bubble was gonna blow sky high, that is why I baled out of all stocks in the 2006 time frame. But imagine my surprise when the Fed and Government, followed by the ECB, BoE and other central banks took 2008 as a cue to go into the markets whole hog and design an entirely new form of world capitalism, or should I say destroyed world capitalism. Since 2008 I have believed this giant lie of recovery would explode with double the force of 2008. Well, I was wrong! Year after year after year the money printers WIN, they win big, they juice markets to unheard of highs, money flows from the wealth effect out into the 1% economy and the top earners have never in human history won this big, NEVER!
So here I am again, certain that this ocean of printed money and unlimited leverage will explode. Will it? I was sure it would blow 3 years ago. Nothing but new record highs. The West prints unlimited money and buys giant war machines and spy apparatus with the money. They spread instability and regime change all over, foment civil wars, pay terrorists like Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Fund a nazi minority in west Ukraine to use a 10% support level to capture an entire nation which quickly feel into a civil war so awful that many battles are on a World War scale.
I believe this liar economy, money printinf economy, financialized fraud economy, must collapse. But having learned the power of the money printers, I will file Stockman's statements in the "Maybe, Someday" file and sit back and watch markets soar to new highs. Unfucking-believeable!
With all respect, that's a nasty side effect of being too sure of something (like complex dynamic systems), what you're describing. Stay humble!
Right now I'm thinking it will likely blow before end of 2015, and if they make it through 2015, they will ducttape it to past the 2016 elections as well.
But absolute outer range end for me is before 2020.
Shadowstats' John Williams has a while ago committed himself it will happen before end of 2014 - it might start then but I find it highly unlikely the main fireworks will happen this year anymore.
I was pretty sure it was going to blow soon after 2008, but nope. Then I was pretty sure it was going to blow about a year ago on debt limit grounds - but nope, Congress abandoned the line and we steamrolled right past it. Greece and the Euro? Nope. So now we have de-dollarization and Ebola, not to mention an invasion of the US over the collapsed southern border. Will *that* do it? I dunno. If Ebola starts killing tens of millions on every contintent that would probably do it.
Barring catastropic actions, I don't see an economic collapse as such for some years, more a continuing slide.
Bears are wrong most of the time, but when they start capitulating in mass, watch out!
This Bear has been wrong ... in perpetuity
Even a broken clock is correct twice each day.
Occasional bearish articles are a sign they are going to push the markets higher.
It doesn't crash until they all agree that it won't crash.
+100. I got out of stocks almost totally but only after 40% of my pension was blown away in 2008. Thanks fucking useless 'fund managers' who still got their percentage. When they advised me to stay in stocks after that loss I almost throttled them. Had I only listened...
I've been saying for about four years that the stock market must collapse but, as Jack Burton says, it just goes on and on. Then again, on a long enough timeline....
<<the stock market must collapse but, as Jack Burton says, it just goes on and on. Then again, on a long enough timeline....>>
But it is collapsing:
"If once public opinion is convinced that the increase in the quantity of money will continue and never come to an end, and that consequently the prices of all commodities and services will not cease to rise, everybody becomes eager to buy as much as possible and to restrict his cash holding to a minimum size. For under these circumstances the regular costs incurred by holding cash are increased by the losses caused by the progressive fall in purchasing power. The advantages of holding cash must be paid for by sacrifices which are deemed unreasonably burdensome. This phenomenon was, in the great European inflations of the 'twenties, called flight into real goods (Flucht in die Sachwerte) or crack-up boom (Katastrophenhausse). Everybody is anxious to swap his money against "real" goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them." ([Ludwig von Mises. "8. The Anticipation of Expected Changes in Purchasing Power" from the online version of Human Action. Referenced 2010-06-26.] [my emphasis]
http://wiki.mises.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
This is why they have to try for a 'controlled collapse'. Won't happen that way, of course. But this is a loss of confidence in full-faith-'n-credit. This market that never goes down, is IMHO the beginning of the crack-up boom. Everyone knows the prices are fake - even the worst moron knows that all-time high after all-time high cannot be a result of productivity, and can only be printing. So, they feel it isn't ever going to go down long enough to STAY. That is attitude is a symptom of the crack-up boom.
The only crash TPTB can engineer big enough to save the credibility of their funny-money, is a crash too big for them to control. Either way, I think we are nearing the end of this currency's road no matter what the 'price' of the stock market is. 'Always goes up', if true, will eventually kill your market.
monty burns. me too. but - it burns me too - and i'm not a monty. WHAT THE FED HAS DONE SHOULD BE ILLEGAL!
i had no idea that the ability to simply print money was allowed. and not a small amount - trillions. illegal. it is NOT capitalism.
i lost out on a lot of 'gain' in the stock market, have been all cash (and pm's) since 2008 - (when i sold at the top and did not get wiped out).
i hope to one day meet bernake somewhere.
all the fucking god damn mother fucking liars in the government, the fed, the media. the economy is NOT well. pumping 80 billion a month (most people have no idea how much money that is) into the banks for 3 years - is complete ADMISSIONS of failure.
i know how it plays out. i don't know when. going to be a lot more people walking to the supermarket, and nope, not a flat panel in everyroom.
It is amazing how long complete, over-the-top insanity can continue when the vast majority of human beings are brainwashed sheeple-chimps.
But, eventually the misdirection of resources and efforts creates such rot in physical systems that they do finally start to collapse. And some folks get tired of being endlessly screwed over, even if they did side with the predators-that-be, and get some benefits from doing so.
Oh, the crash will come.
Admittedly the approach to the "inevitable crash" has looked very much like a real world case of the Zeno Paradox. But... it only looks that way. Near the end, events move faster and faster, and get crazier and crazier. That will happen. And indeed, it does feel like that final phase has just started.
The crash took longer than expected, but cannot be avoided.
But realize, the stock market can BOOM... even "hyper-boom" in nominal (dollar/point) measures even as the system collapses. That is, in fact, the plan, and what always happens when hyperinflation takes off. Stocks rise like crazy, yet only 1/2 or 1/4 as fast as the value of the currency falls. Then all the wise guys with stocks pay monster taxes on their nominal gains, which are actually losses. But most of them will probably still be too stupid to realize they've been fleeced.
PS: The interesting question to contemplate is this. Are human beings at this point in history so utterly, totally, completely and absolutely clueless and braindamaged that they accept yet another fiat currency after the collapse? Will people really believe the central banksters when they claim, "Oh, we are resposible folks" after they blow up the economy of the entire planet. Sadly, I expect so. I believe humans are terminally brain damaged at this point in history, having been destroyed by public education and mainstream media (and parents who accept these craven, diabolical, predatory "authorities").
Crashes are always hard to predict. The Fed has done a good job of propping this housing and stock market up to new highs...as unpossible as it seems. However, this merely means the crash will be that much more painful fo rhtose who don't get bailed out again....meaning, the private sector Middle Class.
You mean it's a "bullet train" that will hit the wall?
.
My prediction is that the economy is going to collapse before financial markets unlike in 2007-2009. I don't trust Stoclman: he works for the Peterson Foundation.
If the economy collapses while financial markets are still at all time highs I can't even begin to envision the eventual speed and magnitude of the resulting financial market collapse following.
too many gold bugs on here. while when an 'event' (it will painted as a single action) occurs concurrent with a massive decline in risk assets,gold and silver will be bid at first, then liquidated with everything else to pay margin and debt and be sold as collteral to pay more failing debt. down first, then when the current QE shenanigans are outdown by a decimal place, gold/silver and perhaps other real assets will indeed climb dramatically, but why endure a 40% decline and then make 5x, if you wait till the decline it will feel like your purchasing power is up 10x!
trade is and will be for a long time (as US military has no shadow of an equal) in $.
let the down votes commence, bugs!
The blind man never sees a shadow.
Or the plunger left behind in the toilet!
Well, Mr Cocksure Wall St Speak, the USD will be to blame for the next Larger Cataclysm of markets and economies of scale will further leave the USD behind to trade in Petro, other currency and maybe even PMs. The 42 floor swan dive by power lunch faggots who grade the world in minutes will be revisited.
Margin debt at record highs in Feb. and Jun.
Margin call = Forced sale at any price.
Articles are starting to appear about how brokerage firms are getting around the 50% margin with offering 'Portfolio Margins."
Is the first bubble to burst the margin debt bubble?
We are headed into a perfect storm of policy failures. This is not simply a failure by the Fed, which has inflated this massive bubble and painted itself into a corner with no clue how to get out, but we are also seeing an absolute failure of American world dominance….
And that's the best news that the rest of the World could have, because the U.S. lost it's place "at the front of the line" when they walked away from Bretton Woods and devalued the U.S. dollars 42 years and counting through war and theft of energy.
Fixed it for ya David!
And ultimately the trainwreck will be good for the 99% as it might get the parasites off our backs, if only temporarily.
This time will be different, since all fiat holders will lose.
WHEN?
Snooooorrrrrreeeee.
I have been hearing this kind of talk since I started reading the Harry Browne books in the early '80s. Browne died in '06, by the way, before any crash came to pass.
The American quality of life and the standard of living have been steadily declining since Wall St and the Shadow Gov't(CIA/NSA) began their stealth hijack of the country in the mid '70s. Meanwhile, we boiling frogs meekly accept the spiritually empty consumer culture and downward mobility which is shoved down our throats.
What do we do about it?: Buy AU & AG and otherwise sit on our hands.
<<What do we do about it?: Buy AU & AG and otherwise sit on our hands.>>
Well, some people also pull out of the official 'recorded' economy...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Fju9o8BVJ8
Good thing each taxpayer in this country only owes a bit over a million dollars on the unfunded liabilities dumped on us by our "representatives" so far. This should be easy to sort out. Just ask any politician who thinks they understand economics. I think I was born about twenty years too late...
Somebody always pulls the unfunded liabilities bullshit out of their ass.
Think defaultomania, capital stranglehold, militarization of Boston post Marathon bombing...and have fun dieting.
If you predict anything long enough it is bound to happen.
Having said that, i will never forget the time my wife and were on a once in a lfetime tour through Europe and we were taken into a casino. At one of the rouette tables red had been rolled 7 times straight and I new in my intuitive heart that ths was going to go on. I made a bet with a fellow traveller that it would continue like that for at least five more times. Well, red came up sixteen times in a row before black appeared.
I guess the moral of the story is that insane things happen and they can keep happening. Good luck to those that ignored the doomsayers so far but be very afraid. That's all be afraid. Fear is the beginning of wisdom.
Bet 2 dollars. Now you would have 4,8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2046 4096 8192 16,384 32,768 65,556 131,112 - nothing. Damn I never know when to stop.
Stockman is 100% correct as usual, but in CNBC bubble world, he's "wrong" as long as Jim Cramer & Friends can scream and rant and rave the market higher, higher, higher still. It's all about emotion now.
In other news, is Tony Stewart guilty of murder or was it a tragic NASCAR accident:
http://tinyurl.com/k6wgur7
Involuntary manslaughter but it's NASCAR so no charges. It's kind of like punching a guy and he dies. You didn't mean to hit him so hard.
Apparently Stewart had a car in front of him, and the guy he ran over was wearing black and standing on a dimly lit track. I think we can give Stewart the benefit of the doubt on this one.
At 20 years old, I can understand the testosterone rush, but his negligence on the track ended up causing him his life.
Out of his vehicle, dressed in Black, in the dark, his out of control temper flaring...what could go wrong.....KABOOM......Darwin Strikes Again. Only hope for mankind is that none of his spawn are out there to pass on to future generations. RIP.
I hate zerohedge. I wanted to borrow some fiat script to buy a cool car and ZH keeps telling me don't do it.
I hear ya. Get plugged back into the matrix and all.
How is the American mob doing in this economy? Any body here from the Cosa Nostra? What is their take on current events?
Well I'm in much better physical shape than I was 5 years ago so bring it on M'Fers.
Slow Train Comin'
I had a woman, down in Alabama....she was a backwoods girl but she sure was realistic
When You Gonna Wake Up?
In the home of the brave, Jefferson's turning over in his grave
Poor David Stockman; a revered crackpot.
"Repent! The end is near.." Somehow this sounds too much as what I hear from the crazies on the corner on a regular basis
Train Wreck? Nah. Not if you can you invest in ISIS! They are doing quite well and now own a dam they got for free and which they can use to sell power production and water. They seem very well organized with dedicated and highly motivated staff that any CEO could only be jealous of. No union issues at all. They collect “taxes” from areas under their control and this appears to be a good profit center too. Create a ticker symbol to trade it. Maybe just use ISIS on the Nasdaq?
The American oligarchs in the MIC would buy in and send shares soaring. They would sell them more military hardware, especially surface to air missile systems to take care of those pesky drones and protect their assets from destruction from above. The future is now.
Greened for snarking like a pro. Hard to believe you're new around here.
It's true that Fed policy is now completely in theoretical territory. They fear deflation because it means the debt cannot be maintained. So they inflate with no thought of those that live hand to mouth. But we aren't seeing inflation where they want it because QE is only circling amongst wall street. Their solution: inflate more. The optimal ratio for a mature economy like the US 4% nominal GDP, 3% growth and 1% inflation. When they can't get the growth they reverse this which is the situation we find ourselves in. Anything short of this means the debt is not sustainable. Of course there are many, many factors but this is a core driving force.
So why isn't it working? Simply because the Fed does NOT know what they're doing. They are flying by the seat of their pants. People do not fit into the perfectly planned Keynesian equation. Do this for this response. Push this button to get this result. People just don't fit into economic theory.
Any extra money is going to pay down debt which blows the Feds policy out of the water and is evident in the velocity of money. It has fallen off a cliff.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V/
No velocity means no economy.
SPOT F'n ON!
Stockman isn't saying anything that ZH hasn't been telling us for years. A little late to the game David but better late than never, maybe if you had read, or perhaps you ARE reading ZH, you would have known about this at an earlier time.
How come the head of the Federal Reserve is always Jewish?
Stanley Fischer: A Dual U.S./Israeli Citizen and Pro-Israel Activist as Vice-Chair of the Fed
January 5, 2014
It's not like he found out yesterday. He's been on this for a long time. Give the guy some credit. He was genuine enough to repent his errant economic ways.
I'll put my money on the big asteroid that won't be seen untill it is a million miles away. It will hit earth and cause the Yellowstone caldera to erupt which join in causing the next ice age and bring about the Planet of the Squirrels.
What actually happens is that it does not replace production and trade with formulas and crazy role of Exchanges.
It's insanity I have 1 kilogram of gold and sell ten papers saying that they're worth a pound of gold.
The exchange would be between 1 pound of gold and paper money or other property.
My relatives produce soybeans and corn in Parana state, are fed up with Monsanto trying to encroach on their products.
Are people who immigrated from Poland to Brazil plant, each season the best beans are selected for the next crop (usually children - sons or nephews as I do this service, supervised, we are trained from childhood to identify a good seed) .
All this -creio culture in Europe is equal to - can get lost with the prohibition of imports of goods hortifutigrangeiros by Russia.
You have no idea what is killing the small producer who lives in desolate places.
That they supply much of Europe (which without them would starve) are.
Today I see people raising goats in an apartment in Greece, I abandoned villages in Spain (the Spanish government encouraging farmers - Brazilians - descendants of Spaniards to come back and work culture), see southern Italy because they are demonized - chucros farmers and without culture.
Even Germany and France have glaring distinctions between urban and rural.
The Russian Government has given much more than a shot in the face with that of European ban.
As the Saker said: - If you want to be a bitch US, assume the costs.
And it costs!
If you produce screws, bolts eat, have a good dentist.
A year is twelve months is a very long time even more crop this year will not be sold, the winter is, will lead farmers to seek cities.
The next crop will not be planted because there is no money to produce nenm people.
I get sick when I hear it all comes down to oil, it is not.
What keeps people alive are water, food and coal (or wood).
Moisturizer, sugar and heat.
The thing is simple.
Break the chain of production of food and you will have a bankrupt country.
Or in war.
Sweet dreams Europe, you were already!
hehe.
And I'm paying Monsanto $ $75.00/acre in seed tech fees here in the US while you leaches in South American steal the technology without fear of legal proceedings and seizure of your farms or personal property. Identifying those good seeds that you've been trained to do since childhood? lmfao. and all of it is Roundup Ready Technology paid for by mostly US farmers. Freeloaders?
Sucker.
Turn your black soil grey.
I have been completely snookered by the central banks and Governments abandoning all law to push this can down the road for such a long time period. Did anyone anticipate that this house of cards would still be holding together since the bottom in 2009?
I certainly did not expect the level of criminal activity that has been and still is being permitted.
Guilty. I thought we'd be on the other side, and feeling much better about our future, by now. No sarcasm, I really did think (in '09) that it'd be mostly over by the next USian election.
No one knows how this whole scenario will unfold. There are too many moving parts, and I could justify almost any prediction except the one that says we don't have a collapse. Deflation? Sure, if ebola breaks out and millions die, and resources are no longer relatively scarce. Inflation? absolutely. that probabliity is alot higher than deflation? Gold confiscation? They might try, but that would require death squads. Death squads? They're probably already being identified by DHS. Civil war? That's close to inflation, in terms of probability. Well, back to enjoying this beautiful day, which is really all that matters these days.
What's interesting to me is that hyperinflation seems to me often to be preceded by a deflationary event, which shows on a hyperinflation chart as that little dip, that little bump down just before the big whoosh up. Here, for example, are some hyperinflation charts and on some you can see that little dip down first:
http://www.learncfds.com/First-Billionnaire-Trader-Thanks-to-Zimbabwe-In...
http://www.cato.org/blog/venezuelas-house-cards
http://www.nowandfutures.com/weimar.html
WHERE IN THE FLYING FUCK IS CASEY JONES WHEN YOU NEED HIS ASS?
In the future it will suck unbelievably to be someone who can not produce something of value to your neighbor or local community.
If you spent the last 30 years skimming off of others your daughters ass will be up for sale on the local street corner.
I hope for your sake she is an incredibly hot slut.
Bring
it
on.
Did they say it can't go down in 2008 or 1987 or 1929?
The big boys win BIG on the downside too. They make currency all ways round. Don't be fooled that the market HAS to go up.
Did they say it can't go down in 2008 or 1987 or 1929?
The big boys win BIG on the downside too. They make currency all ways round. Don't be fooled that the market HAS to go up.
Soz double post, how fuck knows!!!
“the Fed… has painted itself into a corner with no clue how to get out”.
So true.
Now, the question is, “Does anyone want to make FR bureaucrats and their string pullers accountable for what they have done?”
If it is to be done, we certainly shouldn’t expect existing forums of redress (legislatures, courts, media) to provide any meaningful redress. After all, they didn’t aid and abet it so they would be prosecuted for their crimes.
We must, instead, rely on the only historically-proven method that has ever brought effective redress: the same method American Founders used.
Of thousands of slave uprisings in man’s long story, only three have employed this method and each set in motion eras of stunning achievement and advances in the cause of liberty: Athens (year -508), England (1620-1650) and America.
By this method, English rebels brought down judges and tax-collectors, a bishop and kings who thot they could impose taxes without those taxed and who promoted the “divine right of kings”.
A major problem here, there’s hardly an American today who is even aware of this method – apart from those who have read my writings; this, despite all my efforts to distribute my knowledge (an introduction).
It won’t be quick and it won’t be easy: unprecedented adventures never are.
Clesthenes: There are many more examples that your three:The Mamelukes in Egypt were slaves, they rebelled in the 13 century, conquered the resident Caliph's forces and governed Egypt till Napoleon invaded and conquered Egypt .
The slaves rebelled many times in Haiti and eventually won their independence.
The slaves of the Spartans, the helots, rebelled and became part of the citizenry in the years before Christ.
"Stunning achievement and advance" is a matter of taste.
I am sure I could find many more examples if I put my mind to it
oudinot,
Thanks for your reply; of course, I demur, at least partly.
Where, for example, are their contributions to the advancement of liberty; I mean, for all men, not just the bandit class. Practically speaking Egypt, since the year -1300 (at least) "has been a mass of rotting slaves, freely available to any chance coqueror, and wanted by none" a verdict occassioned by policies of Christians and Romans.
Haiti is another example of rotting slaves.
And where is the Golden Age of Sparta? They were, you know, right next door to Athens.
Yes, "stunning achievement and advance" is "a matter of taste"; actually, a matter of whether your cause is liberty or tyranny.
Better come soon. My Puts keep expiring worthless.
My pockets are stuffed with gold, I am ready to help the people rebuild after the kleptocrats have met the guillotine.
"Losers triple down." - Bob's Dad
Assume the position...
We may soon be forced to face our economic Armageddon. The forces that have driven stock markets ever-higher and upward may be beginning to wane. Many markets became distorted years ago when QE and super low interest rates hit the economy in an effort to lessen many of the missteps of recent years.
This has been more helpful in holding up the underlying value of assets and derivatives it now appears than helping to repair a wounded economy. QE has up to now stopped an implosion of derivatives including the resulting contagion and shock that would have spread throughout the financial system. Unfortunately the economy has not fared as well as these asset prices and in many ways these policies have harmed Main Street. More on this subject in the article below,
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/facing-our-economic-armageddon.ht...
NO TIMELINE OR CAUSE AND EFFECT LIST OF SPECIFICALLY WHAT HE IS TALKING ABOUT, THEREFORE MEANINGLESS AND MORE OF THE SAME GLOOM AND DOOM SAYING. LYNDON LAROUCHE SPECIALIZED IN IMMINENT FINANCIAL COLLAPSE CRYING WOLF, HE WAS WRONG OVER AND OVER AGAIN. HOW IS STOCKMAN DIFFERENT??
BECAUSE OF THIS: Supply and demand
America's ass is being kicked in the propaganda war, probaby the same one you are in...your intentions are bad. Fleeing the America, isolating her is taking place and though the maestro would prefer you think it is "the enemy," it is in fact, the plan to destroy america, cut her up and buy her at bottom dollar.
Paul C. Roberts with Greg Hunter (today) Fleeing from the US dollar (topic - 55 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lPeeGT8uVI
You had me at CAPS LOCK