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Can Europe Survive Without Russian Gas?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The western world has placed many sanctions on Russia and its economy. However, Russia holds major leverage over Europe; it has oil and Europe needs it (and may just do a 'deal').

 

 

Source: Visual Capitalist

As Saxo Bank notes,

Tensions rise in Eastern Europe, as the western world hits Russia with new sanctions. Late last month, President Obama and the European Union imposed sanctions in hopes of deterring President Putin from further aggression and putting an end to his support of Ukrainian separatists.

 

The aim of previous sanctions was to focus on specific individuals and businesses, while the newest ones are aimed at major pillars of the Russian economy. The oil industry is a major target, as Russia has become the world’s largest oil producer and it accounts for a large portion of the Russian economy.

 

However, the sanctions against Russia do not target the country’s natural gas sector or its state-owned Gazprom, as about one-third of Europe’s gas supplies come from Russia. Last year, Gazprom exported 162 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe.

 

The escalations in oil sanctions have the potential for major price hikes for Europe, especially since the winter season approaches, which is the peak gas consumption period. If Russia cuts off gas to Europe, then many nations will be scrambling to find alternative gas suppliers and it will inevitably drive up prices.

 

Also, President Putin signed a $20 billion oil deal with Iran to mitigate western oil sanctions. The deal will see the two nations cooperate on the production and sale of oil, and Russia will help develop Iran’s energy infrastructure and equipment.

 

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Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:24 | 5085112 Cattender
Cattender's picture

i doubt it...

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:26 | 5085122 philipat
philipat's picture

That Russian tank driver looks more like Obozo (Without the ears)...........

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:28 | 5085127 CH1
CH1's picture

Obviously, the answer is no... or something very close to no.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:30 | 5085145 Publicus
Publicus's picture

It's really easy, demand for payment in Ruble and the Euro will turn worthless.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:37 | 5085164 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

Until alternate energy technologies (think Tesla) are finally released to the hoi polloi, Russia will be a dominant supplier of nat gas and oil to Europe for years to come.

 

The only reason Russian energy is a problem for Europe is because the USSA does not want to lose its grip over the old continent, thus the need to bully, threaten and create false threats. Europe does not need the USSA, and neither does Russia.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:41 | 5085203 knukles
knukles's picture

Love the propaganda cartoon.  merMel holding the valve, threatening to shut off the gas because Vlad is threatening her with a tank.

Hah ha ha ha
Ass backwards.... should be Vlad threatening her with a tank while slowly turning the screw.

Fucking Perceptions Management

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 22:22 | 5085393 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

I thought the Czech Republic and Slovakia were both above 90% yet no listing.  Does that mean that they can reverse flows and get it from other sources?

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 01:01 | 5085840 Keyser
Keyser's picture

I hate to admit it, but the US has become quite impotent in the last 6 years, which is the image portrayed by it's leader... If the EU circumvents the sanctions on Russia, it's the end of US hegemony... The drumbeat is getting louder...

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 01:25 | 5085883 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

If Europe is want more Russian Gas, Boris is recommending eat more cabbage roll in daily dietary.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 05:07 | 5086146 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Euroweenies tend to end up with what their stupid Leftist politics deserve.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 05:57 | 5086177 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

this myth of socialist europe seems to be very widespread and important to a certain narrative

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 09:14 | 5086647 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

When is a myth not a myth? You are a socialist in the broad sense of the word.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 09:25 | 5086701 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Uncle Remus, humans are socialists in the broad sense of the word. And by writing replies on a blog, we are socializing

in fact, we are usually born in a communist environment, from our baby perspective: no say, all provided for

and then we usually progress to a socialist environment: our educational stage

if you want to call me a socialist, I'd prefer a more pointed example. (btw, I was raised in a fascist household and I'm a small entrepreneur)

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 09:52 | 5086832 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Let me rephrase then - statist.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 10:04 | 5086906 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

in the Webster's definition as an advocate of statism, i.e. the "concentration of economic controls and planning in the hands of a highly centralized government often extending to government ownership of industry"? hardly so. in fact, I'm usually recognized as the opposite of that. In my book, the state has only one goal: the avoidance of the "Tragedy of the Commons". i.e. it has to be kept out of everything that can be done better by private means... excluding force, if possible

nevertheless, yes, the state should be caring for the common good(s). so this makes me a non-anarchist. I'm sympathetic to anarchist criticism, though

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 10:49 | 5087159 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Well, Webster isn't controlling the meaning of words in the public narrative now is he.

Obfuscate and misdirect at your leisure Ghordo, it will not change the outcome. And it's reasonable to say that none of us will care for it.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 11:56 | 5087511 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Uncle Remus, come on. You bring a word in a language that is not by far my first. From a country where "liberal" seems to mean "socialist"

I'm a centrist, here. And if you look it up, you'll see that even in Europe Centrism means slightly different things in different countries. So perhaps I should say I'm a moderate. I'm old, I have been shot a few times in my life, I fear death slightly less than ignominy, and last time I visited the US it was 30 years ago

Meanwhile, who is your avatar? Or, how would you describe yourself, politically? (My guess is anarchist, but what flavour?)

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 01:58 | 5085955 teslaberry
teslaberry's picture

there are 2 overall visions for the future . 

 

one where war prevails---spearheaded by u.s. agitation ( or the illuminati banksters or secret natzi's if that's who you believe is in control but i dont'. )

 

the other is where , due to a cooperative agreement between europe , russia and china----peace 'breaks out'. 

 

now, looking at the history of conflict since ww2, many people would say---that we had 'peace' since world war 2 because the cold war never went hot. if that 'is' peace, then we're most definitely headed for war. 

 

but if that perspectiv'ism' on peace is just a readjustment of the general view that we had bi-hegemonic cold war replaced by hegemonic war only to push forward towards a major financial impasse for the hegemonic u.s.-------then the possibilty of 'peace' breaking out as a result of the 'failure' of the hegemon to be able to agitate more global war [ because after all it not only requires false flags but LOTS OF MONEY to agitate a war ]. ======goes up , because 'peace' is simply russian and china winning, because their strategy is to prevent agitation by the hegemon until the hegemon has internal civil disturbance. 

 

some people say 'peace breaking out' really just means a political implosion of the united states akin to that of the soviet union; which could ALSO be a situation in which the bankster natzi's get to dictate down the united states under a new world order led by the BIS , the FED brussels and the shanghai cooperation council participating in the new SDR on much more advantageous terms. 

 

either way---american peasantry are fucked.   but i'm not so sure they fare better under peace than war. it's really hard to say. peace is war and war is peace , or maybe.....everything is war, and you just rather deal with a war on your own terms than on someone elses'. 

 

eaither way-------i wrote my above thesis to emphasize that it will NOT be europe that determines the outcomes of war or peace, it will be the incumbent superpower of the united states , with u.k. as runt superpower coming to terms with the russo sino axis with india playing the runt for them. 

if there is any X factor it is more likely the defection or lack of cohesion amongst the emirati. who seem to be at play between iran and saudi arabia. 

 

europe remain the primary golden goose hostages in a conflict like this. with france simply living the self deception about somehow being as 'independent' as the u.k. in this conflict because she has nukes and a few defense contractors remaining in business that will soon be on their last legs as they are outcompeted by the chinese. 

 

eu's circumvention of sanctions wouldnt' be due to their defection from u.s. hegemony, it will be because russia checkmated the u.s. that the e.u. is left with no other choice should it defect from u.s. hegmony. 

 

could that be teh breakout of peace? i doubt it. the u.s. holds a major trump card and could send the e.u. economy into a ditch overnight if it felt that would be necessary to agitate a fast war.  the e.u.'s weakness is not necessarily a problem for the u.s. UNLESS the german's find a way to maintain economic intertia . should the e.u. break apart, germany's economy will be haead over heels screwed. as the e.u. after all was a trap for the occupied german subjects. with a weak post e.u. germany STILL occupied by u.s. troops , it would be easier than ever for the u.s. u.k. intelligence services to sew dischord. 

as progressive as the germans may find themselves, and as much as you'd like to believe the german public is capable of steering their leadership through democratic means towarsd a 'breakout' of peace. that remains a dubious possibilty so long as the u.s. occupies their country. 

 

when those protesters agitate for and get the u.s. to withdraw troops, i will take the possibility of peace breaking out more seriously. 

 

 

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:43 | 5085215 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

You don't understand, grip or no grip Russia has alot of natural resources that the other parts of europe just don't have.  So yea they have a grip but is it any different from the US having it's grip on the Western world. 

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 22:00 | 5085306 RECISION
RECISION's picture

I reckon Russia should declare a sort of Monroe Doctrine for europe - tell the USA to Fuck off and stick to its own hemisphere.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 23:22 | 5085583 strannick
strannick's picture

The USA has nothing to offer but derivative debt and Military death. The sooner it takes Ron Pauls advice and reads its Constitution and fucks off out of Europes face, the better the world will be. But it's CIA and Bankers will never allow that, And the Mainstream Media tells the world America's evil is for its own good.

America ruins the world to rule it

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 02:01 | 5085958 teslaberry
teslaberry's picture

same as ghengis khan and all other empires. after the rule is created, over time there remain fewer and fewer peasantry to tax. 

 

then the game changes...that's history. resources don't make you the king, they simply help you obtain leverage if you are able to ue them properly. i'm not sure russia can take over europe in just a few political-economic  episodes simply because she can shut off the gas. 

 

if you shut off that gas---you also lose political cred, which is where the american state-departemtn steps in to ratchet up the war talk and possibly to give the necwessary support to pro-war groups and false flaggerts.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 22:09 | 5085344 IndianaJohn
IndianaJohn's picture

Buck Johnson, -- yes it is different; the US grip can't heat your house or your powerplant.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:38 | 5085178 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Raise the prices and demand payment in gold.

 

 

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:43 | 5085217 knukles
knukles's picture

Or rubles.  Take either one quoted in gold and by golly, the whole Western Edifice comes a crashin' down.... Because West ain't got enuf gold or rubles.  Am I the only guy who sees this coming?

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 09:15 | 5086657 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Sounds like a great time to start a newsletter with a paywall knuks.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:40 | 5085200 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Putin is playing chess, he won't demand that.  He will wait and see if we continue to be jack asses and stop trying to provoke Russia into a war.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:37 | 5085179 813kml
813kml's picture

US will give EU a nice dutch oven to ease the chills.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:47 | 5085233 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

Germany has those old ovens we could crank back up. Yes I know but had to say it in bad taste

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 09:17 | 5086666 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Ironically, arbeit macht frei.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:44 | 5085223 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

So know we are going to bomb Iran Russia, china Isis and Syria am I missing anyone oh ya the rest of the briks.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:28 | 5085136 db51
db51's picture

Freeze you stupid assholes.   Your idol Barry Butt Boy Obama was complaining because it was too fucking cold at Martha's Vineyard.   I doubt if he's worrying about his gas getting turned off.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:29 | 5085140 TungstenBars
TungstenBars's picture

Can someone please explain why many western European countries are America's lapdogs, even when following the US hurts them so much? What is this hold the US has on western continental europe?

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:34 | 5085167 db51
db51's picture

a bunch of libtard Europeans. The EU is as fucked up as Hogan's Goat.   The French - The Royal Family - and they drive on the wrong side of the fucking road.  I rest my case. 

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 04:13 | 5086097 Divine
Divine's picture

The british people drive on the wrong side. Not many other countries do that in Europe.

 

You need to get out of that shithole you call USA and see some world.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:56 | 5085278 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

We have all their gold.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 04:54 | 5086137 Reptil
Reptil's picture

yup

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 03:12 | 5086038 douglas
douglas's picture

Why do you think the NSA spies not just on our own public figures (Senators, Congressmen, Supreme Court Justices, etc...) but also on the the heads of state of both unfriendly and friendly governments (Angela Merkel is the perfect example).  Almost everyone has ¨things¨ they would at least prefer to remain private, in some cases this is more than enough to go against the interest of your constituents and support the interests of the US government - after all, ¨It´s better to shoot yourself in the foot that to have the NSA shoot you in the back¨. 

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 06:53 | 5086242 FrustratedLogician
FrustratedLogician's picture

I could speculate but if someone believes it is all about money they are delusional.

Firstly, I bet that once you have enough money to not worry about it, like Putin or EU boneheads or Zbigniew then next step that matters is legacy you leave. I hate to say it but in my opinion we observe the new world order elderly(David Rockefeller, Queen of England and Zbigniew and so many more) who want to see their ambitions fulfilled. In "Tragedy and Hope" elite ambitions are laid out in the open and this is what they've been doing for centuries. What else can you do when you own trillions, can buy whatever you want? You get bored and want to conquer the world in your sick elitist mind. Why are some people satisfied with a house, garden and being in nature and others want to achieve their way even if whole world is destroyed? So, fire is fuelled not by money but by genuine ambitions of some families to run the world. And then we can move to control.

Money is obviously a factor but don't forget blackmail, Also, what in the world did elite do with trillions stolen from various countries? Buy more yachts? Of course not lol. Invest in research? Obviously. What will trillions invested yield? We don't know. When you look at UFOs flying around then you start questioning where the money went. Do you want to own and preserve your wealth and power? Have an army to do that for you. Or superior tech. That is what I would do. What is the use of power if you can't defend it against everyone? So, my speculation is this: someone has powerful tech in space and if you don't do what we say, you get this and this fried. What can you do against that?

Thu, 08/14/2014 - 14:58 | 5093543 TheRedScourge
TheRedScourge's picture

None of them like to lift up a gun. All the US has to do is continue to stir up hornet's nests and their services will always be required.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:31 | 5085151 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

So this is where Germany pivots east, according to Mr. Willie.

oh the drama.

 

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:43 | 5085212 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Gas or Gold. Gas or Gold ????

Of course if Germans know their Gold is gone for good, the choice is an easy one. 

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 06:06 | 5086185 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Mr. Willie does not understand modern German political sentiment

60% of Germans just lately were polled stating that they want Germany on the back seat of all decisions. Never alone, never leading, always contributing

Germany might pivot east, in fact would for sure, if this would be part of a concerted european move

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 09:53 | 5086682 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

You cannot heat your home or run a factory on political sentiment. I echo Nuland on this one as I suspect Germany will as well. I'm guessing you're not German then.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:33 | 5085160 q99x2
q99x2's picture

There you have it. The onset of Fall is when Russia takes Ukraine back.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:43 | 5085209 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

With respect, what makes you think that Russia wishes to incorporate a bankrupt, backward Ukraine? Imagine if the USA annexed Mexico and central america, and  then decided to extend social welfare benefits to all.  The result would be an economic catastrophe for the US.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:50 | 5085247 db51
db51's picture

uh....according to my calculations, the US has already done just that.   and our Stock Market is SOARING!

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:50 | 5085248 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Good for votes, though.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:54 | 5085273 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

" Imagine if the USA annexed Mexico and central america, and then decided to extend social welfare benefits to all. The result would be an economic catastrophe for the US."

Uhhmmmmm....... Isn't that effectively what we are doing now?

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 09:23 | 5086687 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Seems to me Mexico and central America are doing all the annexing here of late. And the US taxpayer is footing the bill.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:33 | 5085162 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Nine...Nine...Nine

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:48 | 5085240 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

Sis six six

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:35 | 5085169 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Without natural gas from Russia Europe will grind to a halt. While still trying to recover from a recession Europe would face fuel shortages and a massive spike in the price of natural gas.

 In reality America has few military options in Russia's backyard unless it has the backing of a full and enthusiastic NATO and that is very unlikely.  Europe has reason to be unexcited about a possible long and expensive conflict. If an actual ground attack were to occur few see the Russians as likely to rollover as other armies have when America approaches. More on this subject in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/07/putin-holds-all-cards.html

 

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:45 | 5085226 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

Could anyone actually imagine the eurowimps fighting and dying to save the Ukraine for Shell oil?

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 06:09 | 5086188 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

don't ever say eurowimp to a Polish mercenary or one of our darling fascists or neo-nazis. in fact, this "eurowimp" meme is a bit tired. rhymes with surrendering monkeys

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 09:25 | 5086702 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Get back to us when the empire collapses and the attendant nuclear umbrella that goes with it.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 14:35 | 5088271 piratepiet
piratepiet's picture

 

 

Do you honestly think Europe needs the US nuclear umbrella ? 

How long would it take Germany to develop a nuclear weapon ?  I believe they consider both Japan and Germany virtual nuclear powers. 

Are France and UK nuclear powers ?  Although I have to admit that both nations managed a collision between their respective nuclear submarines, while they each had only one at the time; maybe not really confidence inspiring. 

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 02:55 | 5086012 California Nigh...
California Nightmares's picture

What scares me the most is that among Obama's nitwit crew members there is a Bucky Turgidson eager to catch Putin with his pants down - that is, to launch a preemptive nuclear war in hope of eliminating, once and for all,  our perceived rivals in the world. 

This is no joke. The neocons have long held such delusional notions. And they hold key positions in the Zero Admin,, in State, and in the DOD.

 

I deem them to be a bigger danger to the nation than the bankers. 

 

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:45 | 5085220 GooseShtepping Moron
GooseShtepping Moron's picture

Someday the title of this post will appear in a Geico commercial.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:48 | 5085241 Nage42
Nage42's picture

Germany doesn't have a problem if they leave the EU, denounce NATO as a US-driven hammer executing US-driven policies, and gets with the countries that are actually trying to build stuff, rather than "get free shit."

I'm just saying... Germany has a choice, it doesn't have to be WWI with the archduke again...

 

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:51 | 5085255 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

It would be good to know if Germany was still an occupied country or not.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 22:05 | 5085328 Escapedgoat
Escapedgoat's picture

USA                MILITARY PERSONNEL IN GERMAY 120 THOUSANDS    PLUS  MILITARY BASES

GHERMAN        MILITARY PERSONNEL IN USA             ZERO               NO   MILITARY BASES

 

Well!!!!!!!!!!!!..................... whadya  you think mate?

 

 

 

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 22:10 | 5085349 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Checkmate?

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 23:07 | 5085545 WhyWait
WhyWait's picture

No match militarily.  But if the German people are united and ready to pay the price they can drive the US bases out.  Gandhi time!

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 14:40 | 5088296 piratepiet
piratepiet's picture

Can you provide a source for the 120 000 number ? I believe it to be inflated.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 22:16 | 5085374 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

There have been people who've been wondering how Germany is going to jump for awhile and since it's becoming obvious that since the EU is just using them for a piggy bank this would be a good excuse to jump ship. Of course France would set a new worlds record for brick shitting if they left.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:50 | 5085245 Aussie V
Aussie V's picture

Poland is now "freaking out" because it has had it's apple export business halted by Russia as a payback for sanctions.

The Polish Foreign Minister is doing an appeal via video to Americans to lobby the US Government to allow, what he calls, "Polish Freedom Apples" into the US market.

Surely, these Governments knew the potential loss in sales when they jumped on the US Sanctions train??? The way they're acting seems they didn't honestly think they were going to lose anything. Fucktards!

Poland are also now lobbying the UN on the grounds that Russia has crossed the ATO agreement. As well, the EU is attempting to persuade Brazil, and Argentina not to take the incredible advantage they now have by filling Russia's food needs because of the EU sanctions.

They are acting like whinging little children.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 00:52 | 5085834 Freddie
Freddie's picture

The Poles are incredibly stupid.  They have mercenaries and other BS going on in the Ukraine.  They F'ed over Russia and then act like victims when Russia stopped buying their food.

Latin America including Brazil and Argentina plus others said they will gladly sell Russia fruit and other food.   Stupid Poles.

These lying criminals in the EU< WTO, UN et al pushing free trade.  Russia exercises free trade and decides they do not want to buy stuff from murderers involved with the scum Kiev Junta.  LOL! 

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 07:30 | 5086312 FlyingDutchman
FlyingDutchman's picture

Add Egypt to the list as of this morning.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 02:11 | 5085969 vincenze
vincenze's picture

Poland employs a million Ukrainians to pick their apples for poverty wages like $400 per month. These Ukrainians are mostly from the west of the Ukraine and extremely anti-Russian.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 08:15 | 5086407 FrustratedLogician
FrustratedLogician's picture

Same in Lithuania. Also they lie to us about effect on our economy. Our country was very vocal about sanctions and now we got hit to the mouth. Fine! The less we whore for USSA, the more options we would have. You have no idea how intense propaganda on Russia is here. It includes everything: from how Putin did not restore Russia's economy to why Putin's daughters doesn't live with their father. I'm happy to say that the camp against US is getting bigger.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:52 | 5085256 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

Gazprom and Rosneft = a fire sale right now.  300 % profit in 1-2 is a lock when this thing cools down.

I own, both, consider the positions the cornerstone of my speculative account (my gambling money).

Just add some patience, stir and put on a low flame.

Wiser heads shall prevail, they are not going to WWIII over this thing.  Putin won the game five months ago.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:54 | 5085275 db51
db51's picture

Polish Fucking Freedom Apples....omg....where do they come up with this shit.   Last shitty slogan like that was "Yes We Can"!

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 21:59 | 5085291 KCCO
KCCO's picture

Can Russia survive without selling there gas to Europe?

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 22:03 | 5085320 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Russia can and will survive easily. They've got Med. access and also access to Eastern Asia routes via China and South China sea.

  Russia will do just fine, and it's equity markets are under valued. it's taken me almost (2) months to find my way in, and I converted usd to yuan to make it happen.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 22:14 | 5085364 Space Animatoltipap
Space Animatoltipap's picture

Easily since they have a lot more breath than the totally spolied, megalomane, blind and weak Westerners. Waging war against Russia is also not possible because "boots on the ground" without any lasting morality and fighting spirit is always a lost game.

The lousy Western governments are simply lost. One thing may save them and that is to go nuclear. But to try that against a nuclear armed Russia is not really smart. The US government is a blind pitbull only. And "Brussels" its pitiful puppy.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 22:15 | 5085368 dust to dust
dust to dust's picture

 The Sun is migrating to the Southern Hemisphere. Now what? OH the chill in the air. Good luck Baltic States.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 04:51 | 5086132 TweedleDeeDooDah
TweedleDeeDooDah's picture

Hmmm, this will be online by the start of winter:
http://www.lei.lt/energy-security-conference/index_files/Masiulis.pdf

Coincidence? Besides, in a pinch, Baltic countries, as EU/NATO partners, can always count on the US to provide LNG at it's discount rate

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 22:18 | 5085377 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

Are the Winters warm in Europe?

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 04:34 | 5086117 Divine
Divine's picture

Winter's can be damn cold here, but the biggest problem is shit quality buildings in (banana) southern europe. The houses are not insulated so all heat just leaves the houses.

In the north the houses are much more heat effecient.

 

ZH has been only talking about natural gas but Russia is much more than that to most eastern european countries.

Finland imports 71% of its total energy from Russia.

 

  • coal92 % (4,8 milj. t),
  • raw oil75 % (9,1 milj. t),
  • oil distills 82 % (2,2 milj. t),
  • other oils 82 % (0,6 milj. t),
  • natural gas 100 % (4 300 milj. m3),
  • methanol 100 % (0,4 milj. t),
  • Fissile material for nuke plants 19 % (13tU) ja
  • Electricity 67 % (10 200 GWh)

 

So I would say Europe can survive without Russian gas, but will die without any russian energy.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 06:18 | 5086198 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"shit quality buildings in (banana) southern europe"

may I remind you that buildings in southern europe don't even really need heating for survival? I lived in several houses in southern europe during winter that did not even have heating. Sure, it's not the most confortable thing to do for a few week of the year, but for sure not life threatening

you guys seem to have forgotten that Europe was heavily populated before certain amenities were easily available

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 22:19 | 5085382 Joe Tierney
Joe Tierney's picture

There's a HUGE CORRECTION coming - a geopolitical correction - for the euros.

 

Events are going to do an acute and strategic level-set on the euros, and when it's done, the U.S. is going to be isolated to an extent unprecedented in the last 100 years.

 

Russia is happily dancing off to make import/export deals with Asia and Latin America while Europe burns - and it will burn as a result of Russia's sanctions against it, which will push the precarious euros over the edge of the self-made / U.S.-made precipice they've been dangling over since 2008.

 

Rest assured that the euros can't endure the present destructive situation more than a few weeks more, getting into the time of year when they're all going to freeze their mangey butts off if they piss Russia off any more. The level-set is imminent.

 

Unprecedented U.S. isolation is imminent.

 

So picture OhBanger flicking his Bic next to the bomb fuse and the surprised look on his face when the damn fuse gets lit and cannot be put out. He'll stand there with his mug pressed against the bomb casing in disbelief, even when the damn thing blows up in his face.

 

He's soon going to find out how very shallow euro loyalty really is. Russia is very effectively wising them up, via hard lessons - though it is unbelievable how damn stupid they've been up until now.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 22:41 | 5085466 besnook
besnook's picture

it doesn't matter what happens to europe. it matters what happens to germany only. they have just put out a feeler oped to guage the reaction for a split from the usa into the arms of the multipolar brics. i bet this split from the usa idea was hatched with putin when he met with merkel at the world cup, the perfect cover for an "unofficial" meeting. if germany secedes from the usa, the usa is finished. the gas issue may provide the catalyst.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 07:03 | 5086253 smacker
smacker's picture

Given all the agro going on at the moment, it suggests you're right about this.

The only thing that surprises me is that Putin's been incredibly restrained in the face of relentless lies, verbal abuse and sanctions thrown at Russia by the USG, UKG, EU, France and others.

I assume the only reason for this is that his gas/oil earn a lot of revenues, so he won't turn the taps off unless things get worse. But turn them off he will if/when the USG pushes him over the edge, and I don't think we are very far away from that. Then of course the West will turn up the lies and propaganda to Goebbels ear-shattering level to justify some sort of military action.

We will have to wait and see if Russa has done a deal with Merkel for Germany to join BRICS. I'd be amazed but who knows.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 22:24 | 5085405 german Wunderkind
german Wunderkind's picture

sure we can... ust trow those idiots in eastern europe under the bus, they are just retarded, had problems with russia for 400 years and still fall for the oldest trick in the book. it will hurt central europe a bit, but we dont need all the gas we use. a winter without isnt a death sentence for any important country in europe.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 23:02 | 5085532 Joe Tierney
Joe Tierney's picture

You need a reality check

 

Germany's economy is in trouble - and without even a portion of Russia's gas your economy will go into cardiac arrest. Imagine the civil strife and disorder that would result!

 

Thankfully, Germany's business and political leaders aren't as clueless as you are on the matter. They know they're married to Russia for the foreseeable future - they just need to start acting like it. And they soon will.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 22:37 | 5085454 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

Somehow I think Ukraine must be somewhere in the mix????????

Guess not anymore...

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 23:41 | 5085614 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Ukraine and Europe are trying to imagine some sort of lala land. I just read that the powerplants  in Ukraine are down to 10% coal capacity because the mines are in the donbass region. And they are advising everyone to by electric heaters for winter? They dont have hot water now. Ever try to live with a woman who has frozen busted pipes and can.t wash her hair and has to chip ice out of a bucket to wash and no electricity? They are waving happy flags now,  but will storm the Bastille come October.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 22:38 | 5085457 frankly scarlet
frankly scarlet's picture

Humm, where could a gas pipeline to europe originate from that doesn't have Gasprom as owner/manager? Nigeria must have some and the middle east is loaded should chaos there ever subside. Russia will find new customers while the vassal states of europe should be able to find new suppliers, all this in good time.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 22:48 | 5085492 metaStable
metaStable's picture

Can Europe Survive Without Russian Gas?

Sure. A few thousand taco bells should do it.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 23:14 | 5085572 ramacers
ramacers's picture

hell no. germany decides where all this goes, and one can bet they see that gone gold as bill paid in full, 120k troops or not.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 01:02 | 5085845 DeliciousSteak
DeliciousSteak's picture

Meh. Germany can always do bilateral deals with Russia if it doesn't like the stance the rest of Europe has on the issue. The infrastructure is there to supply all Russian exports to Germany through the Nord Stream. Which would then put Brussels right where it's supposed to be; individual governments have control over their own foreign policy - but at the same time it would be a shocking result for the federalists. In truth Russia has much more to lose by "cutting" the gas than Europe, especially now that they're expanding east and need to appear as a reliable supplier.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 06:59 | 5086248 Seer
Seer's picture

Europe is BROKE.  Did you miss that Ukraine, which is a fringe of Europe, wasn't able to pay its energy bills?

China, for now at least, is going to be a viable PAYING customer.

Though direct consumption might not be as high as many believe it to be (as suggested by the data in this article), ANY reduction in consumption is going to kill the Growth Ponzi, and without the Grow Ponzi Europe's exports, what there is (biggest hit on Germany, which is why They "get it"), take a big dive (on top of the dive already encountered).

"especially now that they're expanding east and need to appear as a reliable supplier."

I don't believe that this is even in question.  What's in question, as I noted above, is whether Europe can be seen as a reliable purchaser! (the propaganda has been all about blaming the supplier, not the "addict")

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 23:23 | 5085605 Circle of DNA
Circle of DNA's picture

conchita wurst will keep them warm

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 00:58 | 5085837 flyonmywall
flyonmywall's picture

If the Europeans do not find Realpolitik, then Realpolitik will find the Europeans, once again.

von Rochau came up with the term, and Bismark perfected it to a fine art, with an encore by Putin.

Drop the sanctions and get gas so you don't freeze to death, or listen to Washington and freeze to death. That's what's called Realpolitik.

It gets mighty cold on the Oder-Niesse line in the winter.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 07:05 | 5086255 Seer
Seer's picture

I think that in the longer-term Europe is going to experience freezing.  Most European countries are (just like the US) broke.  Putin/Russia understands this and that's why they're shifting their market Eastward: OPEC is too coupled to the petro-dollar system to break early, BUT, break they will, in which things will get interesting for those OPEC countries in that they'll likely be looking at having to drastically drop their pricing in order to compete for the consumers of Russian energy (which also makes things difficult for Russia).

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 01:19 | 5085869 viedoklis_lv
viedoklis_lv's picture

Yes, we have in Latvia gas pipe line from Russia, it's there from USSR time and it's connected to neighbors. So - should we destroye it and not use it? Of course not. But we don't see any disaster there. Lithuania already building it's liquid gas terminal and will be shiping from other countries, same in other states. And if Russia thinks to cut of gas right now - than we have gas reserves for 2 years. No problems to make transition to liquid gas. Why it was not done before? Because there was no economic and political reason to do that - now there is.
That's all folks!

 

By the way - Europe set santions to Iran, and Europe can lift them if necessary.

Iran Says Ready To Supply Natural Gas To Europe

http://www.rferl.org/content/iran-says-ready-to-supply-natural-gas-to-eu...

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 04:48 | 5086130 basho
basho's picture

"Lithuania already building it's liquid gas terminal and will be shiping from other countries,"

i'd be intereted in knowing the price difference /mcm between lng and piped gas.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/08/uk-qatar-lng-asia-idUKBRE9A708Z...

seems to be more expensive

"By the way - Europe set santions to Iran, and Europe can lift them if necessary."

not unless the amis let EU do it lol

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 04:53 | 5086136 TweedleDeeDooDah
TweedleDeeDooDah's picture

Depends on the country...
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142412788732361160457839644135...

And the foreign policy "discount".

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 07:18 | 5086274 Seer
Seer's picture

Latvia is a full card-carrying member of NATO.  I'm thinking that Russia is going to ramp up retaliations against ALL/ANY NATO countries.

Are those 2-years worth of gas reserves nationalized?  That is, if market pricing shoots up how likely is that gas going to stay in Latvia for internal use only?

"No problems to make transition to liquid gas."

Only if you discount the highly probable events that increased wars and further downturns to nearly all economies (esp to small-ish countries like Latvia).

From http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-17522134

More than a quarter of the population is Russian-speaking and the rights of this section of society have been a thorny issue since independence. Government reforms introduced in 2004 to restrict the use of the Russian language in schools remain controversial.

Legislation on citizenship was toughened up in 2006. Candidates who fail a Latvian language test three times will be denied citizenship. People without citizenship are entitled neither to vote nor to obtain an EU passport.

Seems that very thing was tried on Ukraine and was the catalyst/final straw for all the seperatists there.

More from that article:

Latvia's economy grew by 50% between 2004 and 2007 but the global financial crisis of 2008-9 hit the country hard, and the former Baltic tiger endured one of the worst recessions in the EU.

The social turmoil triggered by the financial crisis led to the fall of the Godmanis government in February 2009. By January 2010, unemployment had soared to 20%, prompting fears of further political instability.

Deep public spending cuts introduced by the subsequent Dombrovskis government led to discontent at home, but impressed international lenders enough to earn Latvia an IMF/European Union 7.5bn euro ($10bn) bailout.

This has helped Latvia's economic recovery, and it returned to growth in 2011. By late 2012, its economic revival was the EU's strongest. The country joined the eurozone at the start of 2014, despite the unpopularity of the move.

Despite a relatively successful economic transition, unemployment remains persistently high, and in recent years many young Latvians have left the country to seek opportunities abroad. Between 2000 and 2011, the population fell by about 13%.

So, did Latvia, in the face of a world-wide economic downturn, pay back that $10bn loan? are they still the bankers' bitch?  If the "young" are leaving then Latvia's future is clearly not there...

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 01:24 | 5085881 viedoklis_lv
viedoklis_lv's picture

Could Russia survive without EU as a client?

 

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 02:00 | 5085957 vincenze
vincenze's picture

Russia has survived when it was the USSR. What is different this time?

Now it has more friends than at that time.
It can buy 3 Chinese-made cars for the price of one German-made one.

 

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 02:24 | 5085978 viedoklis_lv
viedoklis_lv's picture

Than - russians survived, but not USSR regime.

Now - russians will survive, but not Putin regime.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 02:31 | 5085984 vincenze
vincenze's picture

Capitalist Putin's regime against Socialist European regime.

Don't forget that Putin is very flexible being a semi-dictator.
Europe can't stop giving food stamps to its citizens, Putin can in 5 minutes.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 02:58 | 5086017 viedoklis_lv
viedoklis_lv's picture

Oligarch capitalism in Russia can activate riots, and there are no foodstamps here, they are in US.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 07:24 | 5086287 Seer
Seer's picture

Should be "Then," anyway...

Yes, not sure why you were down-voted as your comments are factually accurate.  I suspect that people sense the emotional tone in your delivery.

"Regimes," people, persist because of resources.  Russia has resources, as does Canada and the US: all three are countries that I have as my top three; play the extreme of "isolationist" and these are the only countries that could continue to present some semblance of "status quo" for some time, though eventually this cannot be continued.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 03:44 | 5085887 fel.temp.reparatio
fel.temp.reparatio's picture

http://journal-neo.org/2014/07/30/the-atlantic-axis-and-the-making-of-a-...

A quote from a NATO admiral from the early 80s (you could probably substitute German-Soviet for European-Soviet below):

"...the US and UK never would allow European-Soviet relations to develop to such a degree that they would challenge the US/UK's political, economic or military primacy and hegemony on the European continent. Such a development will be prevented by all necessary means, if necessary by provoking a war in central Europe."

Seems the 20th century Soviet Union and the 21st century Russian Federation are viewed the same... as a threat.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 07:25 | 5086289 Seer
Seer's picture

Excellent reference!

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 01:31 | 5085925 giggler321
giggler321's picture

the info graphic is wrong.  it gives the impression that the UK is OK because it does not pay Russia for its gas.  it makes it then like an unconnected system. we do ship gas from France and are directly connected in as much as where we buy from, buys from Russia. when prices rise it will effect us all.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 02:27 | 5085981 talisman
talisman's picture

the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project will revolutionize the ability of Iran to market its gas and oil without the constraint of Western sanctions.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 03:08 | 5086032 onmail
onmail's picture

America intends to deprive Europe of the Russian Gas & Oil and at the same time supply from its own companies in the puppet regimes of middle-east.

In other words, America wants to suck up life blood of Europe & Russia maybe aiming to breakup Russia further and grab its petro reserves.

While at the same time causing killings of countless human beings everywhere.

This is Vampirism at its worst.

But look , who controls America - The Israeli bankers. 

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 09:14 | 5086648 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Sure they do.

This is a propaganda line straight from Russian Channel 1.

The fact is that despite the Russian rhetoric that has Russians believing they are in danger of imminent invasion, there are simply no troops in Europe to do that.  They simply don't exist.

Not anywhere. 

Furthermore, the US has the strongest military in the West.  It has THREE BRIGADES of combat troops on the entire continent of Europe each of which is led by a Colonel. One is a Tank Brigade. One is a Mechanized Infantry Brigade.  And one is an Airborne Brigade.

That is almost enough force to take over one medium sized city.  It is less than  1/10th of the troops that were in Afghanistan alone.   And it is less than 1/15th the troops that were in Iraq.

How is that a credible military threat to an entire continent?  Or to a country the size of Russia?

Schizophrenia is required to understand it.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 03:11 | 5086037 barre-de-rire
barre-de-rire's picture

fucking idiot chart " survive - europ - gaz, and the red list : ukraine tahiland south corea, netherland india.... only netherland is in europ.... omg,  kind of information like honkong in brazilia.

 

you are very mental tyler sometimes.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 06:45 | 5086232 Mabussur
Mabussur's picture

Your posts (all of them) are worthless and poorly formatted. Please refrain from wasting our collective bandwidth with your shitposts.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 08:29 | 5086446 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

Yes viedoklis, Ordering that there be less of something that is in demand AND that you cannot charge more for it ensures that there will be MUCH less of it. 

But you will get booed for saying this obvious truth here at ZH:

Wed, 08/06/2014 - 12:19 | 5054406

Mi Naem


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*PUTIN BANS FOOD IMPORTS FROM COUNTRIES SANCTIONING RUSSIA: IFX"

"PUTIN ORDERS GOVT TO PREVENT ACCELERATED GROWTH OF FOOD PRICES"

So Putin orders lower food supply + Putin orders suppressed food prices

= Putin orders food shortages. 

That could get interesting. 

 

Responses included:

basho


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how did u get to this. lol

"= Putin orders food shortages."

 

and

 

Jano


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Pls. read also the russian sources (damned, you can't, of), you could read there, that the imports of fruits and vegetables, some 8% of the total market, from Poland will be compensated by imports from Turkey (in today's news for example). This is just one example.

And yes, due to the Ukrainian war there are no imports from Ua and the russian farmers are extremly happy, earning the money of their life, as they stated in the news...

European food chains import their stuff anyhow from North Africa.

 

And

 

NOTaREALmerican


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You are confusing the meaning of those orders.   Obama is the Marxist and does stuff like that all the time.  Putin is a Free-Enterprise loving Libertarian; which is why Russia has done so well in the last decade.    That's just the MSM trying to turn you against the REAL side that loves liberty.  

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 09:06 | 5086601 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

You are hilarious!

I got a real laugh from your critical expose of OBVIOUS hypocrisy regarding Putin and the Russians.

Proclaiming Putin a Libertarian and a price-fixer simultaneously!  Indeed!

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 09:36 | 5086768 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

You did not read very carefully GC. 

The "Libertarian" assertion, while hilarious indeed, was not my quote.  It was one of the handful of lame responses to my clear observation of the obvious in the first section of the quotations. 

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 04:28 | 5086110 basho
basho's picture

the saxobank graphics are really dumb.

what valve is merkel turning. must be a beer tap.

and Putin is sitting in a 'gas-tank'

hilarious horses**t

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 04:46 | 5086127 TweedleDeeDooDah
TweedleDeeDooDah's picture

It's odd that the graphic shows Lithuania at 100% reliant on Russian gas, yet before the calendar day of winter this year rolls around, the Klaipeda LNG terminal, which can hold enough gas for the country to last an entire year will be online.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 07:30 | 5086308 Seer
Seer's picture

So, if you build the STORAGE the enegy will automatically populate it?  Good to know!

BTW - Ukraine has a pipeline with an "endless" supply running through it, yet, they still had problems um... paying for that energy, even at discounted pricing!

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 04:54 | 5086138 random999
random999's picture

Ya ya can always dig up those coal reserves..

In parts of europe gas is not even on the energy map. Sure it will hurt a little to quite a few countries, but talking about survival?

Might have to introduce gas rations just like some yankies and chinese do with water. Might be a healthy lesson for all those people who seem to live beyond the moon..

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 06:49 | 5086239 Lea
Lea's picture

The systematic inversion becomes enormously irritating. To make it a reflection of reality, the tanks should be on the Nato side (Merkel) and Putin should hold the gas valve.

So, as lies are crazy-making in the long run, invert the characters in the first image, if only to retain your sanity.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 09:02 | 5086584 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

How do you figure?

Western European militaries are almost non-existent and the US has only three brigades (a brigade is about 3,000 fighting troops) in all of Europe.

 

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 07:22 | 5086282 qian liao
qian liao's picture

beauty of is that american and european and japanese gas creates inflation that kills everyone in the long run.  at least runnian gas is cxlean burning and keeps us warm in the winder.  american and japanese european gas in the form of QE creates nuclear winter.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 07:31 | 5086313 Seer
Seer's picture

Huh?

Who is "we?"

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 08:32 | 5086461 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

A lack Russian gas will effect the entire production chain in Europe.....talking about this country and that exposure to Russian gas is beside the point..

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 08:34 | 5086471 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

The UK is trying to wreck central and eastern europe so that that Spain , France Ireland etc can restart their local scarcity engines.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 08:42 | 5086479 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Time to move ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%A1laga

Málaga enjoys a subtropicalmediterranean climate. It has one of the warmest winters in Europe, with average temperatures of 17 °C (62.6 °F) during the day and 7–8 °C (45–46 °F) at night in the period from December through February. The summer season lasts about eight months, from April to November, although in the remaining four months temperatures sometimes reach around 20 °C (68.0 °F).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%A1laga_Metro

 

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 08:57 | 5086563 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

How interesting to watch us come full circle:

So it IS about energy after all?

"Can Europe Survive without Russian Gas?"

Without parsing what exactly is meant by the term 'Europe' I can give a solid answer:

Unless Nabucco were to be rapidly built, and the middle east stabilized to allow gulf energy greater access to Europe, the answer is NO.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 09:52 | 5086836 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Its not about energy .........its about creating scarcity.

Scarcity cannot be made to work on the entire Euro continent.

I.e. - the gaff cannot become a entrepot on this scale.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!