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Will A Hawkish Janet Yellen Be JOLTed By Most Job Openings Since 2001?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Now that even the Fed has admitted the BLS' nonfarm payroll and unemployment rate are meaningless due to the "noise" from a record number of workers dropping out of the labor force, Janet Yellen is left with one fallback "favorite" indicator, the JOLTS survey (Job Openings and Labor Turnover). It is here that something rather unexpected just happened, when moments ago the BLS reported that US employers reported a whopping 4671K job openings in the month of June, beating expectations of a 4.6MM print and well above the downward revised 4,577K in May. This was the highest openings print since February 2001, and one which suddenly puts the "hawkish" Janet Yellen back in play as it suggests that slack in the labor market, at least based on the number of job openings, has not only filled the gap, but it is now overflowing!

 

Another way of showing the delta between hires and quits, and the rising Openings delta. One can only hope the green-lined data is credible.

 

Some more good news: layoffs are declining while quits are rising.

As the BLS reminds us, Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by employees. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. The number of quits has exceeded the number of layoffs and discharges for most of the 12-year JOLTS history. During the latest recession, this relationship changed as layoffs and discharges outnumbered quits from November 2008 through March 2010. In June 2014, there were 2.5 million quits, still below the 2.8 million quits in December 2007, the first month of the recession.

Some other observations from JOLTS:

  • The ratio for health care and social assistance remains above 1.0 throughout the business cycle and for the history of JOLTS. The high ratio suggests a need for workers as evidenced by constant voluntary turnover and few layoffs and discharges.
  • The ratio for manufacturing goes above and below 1.0 across the business cycle, indicating that both quits and layoffs and discharges in the industry depend on the economy.
  • The ratio for construction is below 1.0 for nearly every month in the JOLTS history, indicating that layoffs and discharges are more common than quits in this industry as workers are routinely laid off as projects are completed, and then rehired elsewhere for new projects.

It was not all good news, though, and as the following chart focusing solely on the number of hires shows, the pace of hiring news workers is still woefully low compared to where the level of Payrolls suggest it should be.

Still what JOLTS really shows is that the NFP prints of the past few months was roughly in line as defined by the Net Turnover statistic, which is Hires less Separations. Here, June is said to have experienced 283K new jobs compared to 298K based on the establishment survey, which simply confirms that one series is a seasonally adjusted goalseeked indicator for the other.

 

Then again, since Yellen has no desire to raise rates, we wouldn't be surprised if Yellen were to actually go through our archives in order to reduce the impact of the JOLTS data next (now that the unemployment rate is meaningless) and find the following post: "This Is What Happens When The Bureau Of Labor Statistics Is Caught In A Lie."

It was here where we showed nearly a year ago that JOLTS (and BLS) data for that matter is nothing but a monthly exercise in goalseeked fabrication.To wit:

 

For now however, the question of the day is: will Yellen be JOLTed out of her dovishness based on the latest job openings data?

 

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Tue, 08/12/2014 - 10:53 | 5081765 Proofreder
Proofreder's picture

First post

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 10:56 | 5081777 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

The US is still losing more businesses than are starting, and that is the only indicator that matters in this phony money system.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:00 | 5081812 Gaius Frakkin' ...
Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

Are they including "job openings" on Craigslist now?

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:12 | 5081876 max2205
max2205's picture

This has to be bullshit....

Oh wait this isn't a govt sponsored report is it?

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 12:05 | 5082153 Spigot
Spigot's picture

Not bullshit. It's the result of a 'firing 200k full time workers and putting up ads for 400k part time workers' kind of thing. Fact is that all new job openings since 2009 have been part time, temp jobs.

Obligatory Snark: "If you want your job, you can work three, new part time jobs instead..."

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 18:13 | 5084270 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Part time workers are the new normal courtesy of the 30 hour 0zer0care work week.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 12:06 | 5082161 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

What jobs where and paying what? Jobs have turned crappy and one minimum wage, part-time job looks pretty much like another.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 12:08 | 5082165 WhyDoesItHurtWh...
WhyDoesItHurtWhen iPee's picture

Jolts is a survey and The White Pages is the incredible shrinking book.  Who the fuck are they calling ?  People with home phones ?  Who do you know this year that answered their home phone to do a survey ?

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:35 | 5081992 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Janet has so been set up to hit the pavement.

There is a guest cabin for her on Benny's ranch in Paraguay perhaps?

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 13:24 | 5082540 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

NPR "explained" all this bullcrap just last night!

(The short bullcrap appears on Foxtard News, the longer bullcrap appears on NPR -- guess they believe their audience has a greater attention span for bullcrap?)

Firstly, they featured a so-called "economist" who explained that "economists" were "all mystified" as to why so many American men had "dropped out of the labor force"?

(Always the fault of the American worker, duuuhhh?)

This American Enterprise Institute self-identified "economist" was clueless as to why American males refused to "work" --- evidently he hadn't read any number of economic studies about the four official jobless recoveries (officially the first was 1988 -- 1992, but really there were at least one or two during Reagan's administration).

I read the first study, having learned of it from a Fortune Magazine article in the 1990s, not exactly a staunch supporter of the American worker!

Numerous other such studies have been done explaining that during each jobless recovery, only one-half of those jobs lost (offshored) were ever once again created, and half of those paid much lower salaries, while concurrently more of those jobs were classified as temporary and contractor positions.

This last jobless recovery, beginning in the 2008 period, has been even worse.

Then NPR featured a so-called economist from the Economics Policy Institute (EPI), once a bastion of progressive thought, but ever since they accepted a donation from Peter G. Peterson's Peterson Foundation, the EPI has been quickly going down the drain! 

The EPI stooge concurred with the stink tank, AEI, claiming they were "mystified" as well. (Evidently none of these stooges can locate their very own vaginas, either!)

Of course, there is absolutely no possibility, in Corporate Amerika's official script, that a shrinking jobs base might be connected to American workers unable to find jobs, and spending their very last pennies in pursuit of employment, now could there?

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 12:18 | 5082206 Berspankme
Berspankme's picture

Funny because when I run an ad I get 1000 replies. I pay 11 per hour

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 10:53 | 5081768 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Expect more BLS fudging as an election is approaching (November).

What matters is when will the Harpies and Warlocks of Wall Street tell Janet to pop the current bubble by raising rates.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 10:58 | 5081792 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

and they will......and when granny pops it and a great big stinking bag of gas hits her in her pooch, she'll exclaim......"but nobody could have seen it coming" 

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:14 | 5081889 max2205
max2205's picture

Recovery! Finally!

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 10:58 | 5081801 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

Given how the repubs seem to be pushing the immigration issue now, it seems that the wall street warlords might have bought and paid for them already. If so, it could be time to pop it now to have them take over in november. Maybe that explains the fudged 4 % gdp and all the other good data all of a sudden

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:12 | 5081885 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

I've been expecting it so have been paying off variables.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 10:55 | 5081775 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

who is out there buying Dendreon today? Any takers?

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 10:56 | 5081784 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

I'm too busy trying this Condor of Irons thing.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:16 | 5081901 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

DNDN had been berry berry good to me a few years back. I only wish I had turned around and shorted the pig when Cramer started pumpining it.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 10:56 | 5081780 Tjeff1
Tjeff1's picture

Answer:  NO

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 10:56 | 5081789 SMG
SMG's picture

I just don't believe any statistics from the governement anymore.  The economy has been shrinking for years yet somehow with faked inflation numbers, it's reported as a gain?

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 10:59 | 5081793 Gaius Frakkin' ...
Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

I can confirm this... I finally see a "Help Wanted" sign for baggers at the supermarket. Definitely a chance to jump in there and move up to cashier or stocker. In 7-10 years you may be making enough to break even... before the robots take over.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:15 | 5081894 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

I see a lot of help wanted signs around.  Some people must be pretty comfortable with their .gov money.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 10:59 | 5081794 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

"will Yellen be JOLTed out of her dovishness based on the latest job openings data?"

 

Uhhmmm.... No. Old Yeller will continue to do what fed  heads do, lie, cheat, and print. Those are her only real options. well, those and she can bake us a cookie too.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 10:58 | 5081796 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

More completely made up irrelevant data for algobots to churn the bullshit higher.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:00 | 5081803 Ragmar
Ragmar's picture

Job openings for part-time low pay jobs. No wonder these positions are not being filled.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:00 | 5081804 GOLD AND SILVER...
GOLD AND SILVER NATZI's picture

Posting a job is one thing.  Whether or not the job actually exists are two entirely different things.  Temp agencies are notorious for posting phantom jobs, they do it just to get you to call them to get you into the system.  As well, many corporations post job opportunities (required by law) but have no intention of ever giving interviews as the job has already been filled in house.

I've seen so many examples of this with my own eyes.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:01 | 5081815 Loucleve
Loucleve's picture

great argument for AMNESTY! 

come on people, read through the lines.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:22 | 5081926 Wahine
Wahine's picture

Every Target, Taco Bell and other large chain has "NOW HIRING" vinyl letters stuck to the window next to the hours they are open.  Every commercial truck has a bumper sticker saying they're hiring.  that shit never comes off regardless of whether there are any job openings.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 13:31 | 5082586 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

This banker type told me of his frustrating experience in trying to get a job at a software company called Traveling Software (this was back in the 1990s) and I patiently explained to him that they were never actually hiring, the help wanted ads were to pump up the value of their stock, as they had just laid off 60% of their workforce and were in dire straits.

He just wouldn't believe me . . . .

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:02 | 5081822 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Full or part time? I see a ton of ads for part time.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 16:48 | 5083784 Kelley
Kelley's picture

Grab any three jobs and you, too, can be a member of the working poor!

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:03 | 5081826 viator
viator's picture

And market tanks.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:16 | 5081902 BeerMe
BeerMe's picture

bank profits near record highs

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:04 | 5081831 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

A Black Swan is the only thing that can deflect blame from the trillions wasted by the Keynesians.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:06 | 5081841 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Hawkish? What a joke.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:09 | 5081857 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

i get my jolt from coffee

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:15 | 5081896 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

So many jobs in fact, that people can have multiple jobs, at low hours, low pay, and no benefits.

#RECOVERY!

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 16:47 | 5083765 Kelley
Kelley's picture

Well done! One solitary sentence that describes so much, so well. 

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:22 | 5081935 john milton
john milton's picture

what kind of jobs are they.. burger flipping macine assembly line worker under burger flippers salary

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:28 | 5081961 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

If you wanted to convince stock momos that your company was growing, would you:

 

A) Post scads of job openings on your company website, so that the momos would think, "WOW!  They really must be growing!", and only actually hire when you had to.

B) Only list openings that were real. 

 

But, but companies wouldn't post job openings just to give the illusion of growth, would they?

 

 

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:29 | 5081967 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Yah, a lot of job listings are bogus, like the Lakers advertising for an eight foot forward who will work for minimum wage.  Then they can moan that Americans just won't take the job, so they hire a five foot tall guy from India instead or outsource the entire team to China.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 11:30 | 5081973 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

From our little Indian friends. 

You know the ones that traded their silence for more American IT jobs in return for "steel refabrication" and reuse of a crime scene in NYC 13 years ago....

Now you can auction your skills to the highest bidder.  What a great way to find more H1B1s at a "lower price"?!!!

I'm sure with all the illegals coming across our borders (as potential new voters and military recruits) it's only a matter of time that no citizenship will be required to obtain that 'active' TSCI!!!

http://www.nextgov.com/cio-briefing/wired-workplace/2014/08/forget-tradi...

 

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 12:28 | 5082250 nosoeawe
nosoeawe's picture

With any luck the white haired wmd to the middle-class will get diagnosed with stage 4 cancer today and die before the years up

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 16:33 | 5083671 Kelley
Kelley's picture

By any chance are you an ageist wishing wholesale death on senior citizens?

 

Or are you using sarcasm to express what the BLS and WH are hoping for?

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 12:40 | 5082307 Dead Man Walking
Dead Man Walking's picture

I only know software companies.  Amost every company i work with has a permanent ad running somewhere for developers and sales people, if for no other reason that prospective customers look at that as part of due diligence to make sure you're viable and growing. Usually the positions on teir websites are bogus.  The ones that they have to pay for, such as linked in are more real, though they are often repeated, fishing for candiadates because HR excludes 99% of the candidates.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 12:57 | 5082358 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Everything fixed. Somebody push Janet Yellen to go up my FAFSA.

Tue, 08/12/2014 - 20:42 | 5084901 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

The Central Planners REALLY REALLY love those charts, graphs, models, surveys, indicators, and data, don't they?

Too bad they don't just open their eyes, walk a few streets, talk to ordinary people in ordinary neighbourhoods and ask the simple questions...and arrive at a few commonsense conclusions...

#1: THERE IS NO REAL, NET "GROWTH" OCCURRING.

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