BofAML Warns "Start Looking For An S&P Top"

Tyler Durden's picture


"It's time to start look for a top in the S&P500," are the cautious words that BofAML's Macneil Curry begins his latest note, adding that this corrections will pressure 10Y yields to new cycle lows.


Via BofAML,

Start looking for an S&P500 top.

Its time to start look for a top in the S&P500. Into 1952/56, worst case 1958/68 we look for a top and resumption of the larger downtrend towards 1887/1865 (14m channel and 200d avg).

10yr yields at risk of resuming their larger downtrend. 

This should put significant pressure on US 10yr Treasury yields to resume their larger bull trend for 2.33%/2.29% (retracement and 6m channel support).

*  *  *
A break of 1928 in the S&P500 says the downtrend has resumed, while Treasury bulls need a close 2.4109%/2.406% to say that the correction is over.  

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Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:13 | 5088483 Bryan
Bryan's picture

OK that's the signal.  Look for a new all-time high soon.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:16 | 5088505 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Ugh! Beat me by one nano-second.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:17 | 5088515 power steering
power steering's picture


Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:22 | 5088546 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

A solid break of the 125 day SMA is the nasty to watch for now:

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:25 | 5088562 S.M.T.U.Q.I.
S.M.T.U.Q.I.'s picture


Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:35 | 5088630 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

just leveraged up with NFLX and Faceplant. should be a bonanza

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:37 | 5088644 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

I got a new one since BTFD is getting old BTFDT

Buy the Fucking Down Tick

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:37 | 5088647 S.M.T.U.Q.I.
S.M.T.U.Q.I.'s picture

Don't buy the stocks when they are really high buy them when they are low then when they go high you sell them to make the most money.  It is easy to do, most people try to buy them when they are to high and sell them low.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 19:48 | 5089916 neidermeyer
neidermeyer's picture

I wouldn't sell until GS puts out BUY guidance on BONDS to the muppets.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:23 | 5088551 S.M.T.U.Q.I.
S.M.T.U.Q.I.'s picture

Every time anybody says something is true the opposite is always what ends up being true every time.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:26 | 5088569 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

You mean like Obozo is an American citizen !?

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:32 | 5088608 S.M.T.U.Q.I.
S.M.T.U.Q.I.'s picture

Obozoma needs to be run over like by Tony Steward did.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:36 | 5088625 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

yes, but the homo's only adventure is onto a golf course, would be tough to clip him just right at 10 mph, maybe jousting style?

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:35 | 5088634 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Golf balls move at 140 mph off the tee...


Wed, 08/13/2014 - 16:54 | 5089037 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

but he always tees off first, and then has his balls washed...

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:28 | 5088581 Bryan
Bryan's picture

Sharp minds think alike, Dr. Engali.  ;-)

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:34 | 5088624 geotrader
geotrader's picture

nano, nano

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:53 | 5088723 Bloppy
Bloppy's picture

Exactly. No one is heeding ANY warnings. Pure madness.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:13 | 5088492 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Well that settles it, we are going higher. BTFD.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:18 | 5088522 himaroid
himaroid's picture

Phwew! I almost jumped on long tbonds hard! Close call.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:15 | 5088495 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

By stawks! Short BoAML!

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:16 | 5088517 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Must be a coincidence -- there was a guy early last year also looking for a top.  Wonder if he ever found it . . .

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:18 | 5088525 q99x2
q99x2's picture

This article sure seems hilarious after 4 years of reading ZH.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:20 | 5088537 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Are the printing presses still running?  No top until they stop.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 16:01 | 5088539 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

Where were they at the last top ... besides buyin' the toxic CD paper from Goldman?

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:20 | 5088540 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Two things that I'm positive will never be found:

1) Bigfoot (Sorry, Bobo)

2) A top in the S&P

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:29 | 5088576 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

{Conversation between two space aliens: }

“Humans sure are strange creatures – they spend their entire college years trying to find a nice bottom.”

“Yes, and when they get older, they become obsessed with elusive tops! “

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:22 | 5088552 Boston
Boston's picture

This should put significant pressure on US 10yr Treasury yields to resume their larger bull trend for 2.33%/2.29% (retracement and 6m channel support).

So he's reversing his call from a few weeks ago---that 10yr yields are headed back up? If so, this exactly what I said when I disagreed with him at that time; I said that if the S&P drops by ~100 points, then there's no way this yield doesn't also drop. The actual result--the S&P dropped by almost 100 points and the 10yr touched a 2014 low yield of 2.36%.


A break of 1928 in the S&P500 says the downtrend has resumed, while Treasury bulls need a close 2.4109%/2.406% to say that the correction is over.

2.4109%/2.406% just happened today...a few hours ago.


Wed, 08/13/2014 - 16:06 | 5088781 himaroid
himaroid's picture

Fokkers are becoming desperate and sloppy.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:28 | 5088568 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Approaching a historic turn in U.S. monetary policy, Janet Yellen has staked her tenure as chair of the Federal Reserve on a simple principle: she'd rather fight inflation than another economic downturn.

(Reuters) - In a series of quarter-million-dollar dinners with wealthy private investors, Ben Bernanke has been clearer than he ever was as chairman of the Federal Reserve on his expectations that easy-money policies and below-normal interest rates are here for a long time to come, according to some of those in attendance.


As long as the free money flows, there will be no "top".  Muppet line forms to the right...

Thu, 08/14/2014 - 06:43 | 5091293 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Regardless of what you name it the "Federal Reserve Nightmare" or the "Yellen conundrum", the box Ben Bernanke made when he painted both himself and the Federal Reserve in a corner remains. Bernanke has by passing the chairmanship to Yellen escaped from the QE trap but left the rest of us fully in its grasp.

With a policy of loose and cheap money  and an inflation target of just 2% the Federal Reserve  continues to please those gambling that not fighting the Fed guarantees profits.

As many Americans are forced to pay higher food, gasoline, and health insurance premiums, I wish someone would let the Fed know we have already passed their target. Any thought that inflation is not higher has come from the false illusion brought from lower payments on things like auto loans and mortgages, this is a one off and will not continue. Trouble lurks ahead. More on this subject in the article below.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:27 | 5088580 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Good job Macneil Curry - and much thanks for working together with yellen to juice this beast to its current levels.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:30 | 5088582 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

what kind of silver spoon fuck is named "MacNeil" - almost as pretentious as "Whitney"

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:29 | 5088590 tommylicious
tommylicious's picture

Buy 'em!

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:31 | 5088600 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Truthfully, the charts are showing this market to go back to test the highs near 2000. It is almost a perfect patttern. Check out his 125 MA chart. Not sure how he came to his conclusions when looking at this.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:31 | 5088606 rayban
rayban's picture

I concur, mainly because I'm loaded with puts.

Thu, 08/14/2014 - 12:54 | 5092883 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Why why waste your time with puts? They expire. UVXY, HVU (tsx) do not.
on a very short term basis: 241.623= SPY x HVU1/13.039 so 13.03 inverse to the market.
On a longer-term basis since 2013 sep, 264.71 = SPY x HVU1/10.55 so 10.55 inverse to market.


Wed, 08/13/2014 - 15:52 | 5088720 Ewtman
Wed, 08/13/2014 - 17:52 | 5089341 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

here's a link so you can go fuck your sister:

wait for it...


Thu, 08/14/2014 - 12:47 | 5092847 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Elliot waves don't work. Can't predict, can't back-test, no math.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 16:05 | 5088776 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

new high over 2000 coming

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 16:18 | 5088865 Chippewa Partners
Chippewa Partners's picture

It's summer.  Retail is slow.  Let's generate some commish.

GC's babeeeeeee..........the customer doesn't have a yacht and never will.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 17:03 | 5089093 Spungo
Spungo's picture

What do you call a trader looking for an S&P top? A homosexual.

Wed, 08/13/2014 - 19:52 | 5089930 dragoneyes74
dragoneyes74's picture

The 4hr RSI divergence bottom on the NQ selloff before options expiration worked again.  But the easy part is over.  Now the market has to prove itself.  I was thinking IF the ES does rollover it would happen around the 1955 area.  The other spot to watch is if we climb all the way to the highs and do one of those poke through reversals.  If it stays strong, then it's the same movie once again.  Shortnado 6: The Squeeze to New Highs.   We definitely seem to be reacting more than ever to the geopolitical headlines, so I wouldn't rule out either way.  I have no idea, so I'll step aside.  

Gold has formed a triangle within a triangle within a triangle and it's trading right in the middle.  I'm convinced when this goes it will be a big move.  I'm just not certain on the direction.  From a monetary policy POV nothing is in the pipeline for a sustained move upward.  And the Commercials are clearly selling the rallies, but with the geopolitical tensions escalating, a fear trade rally is certainly possible, and once it gets going we could run into a prolonged wait for that interest rate rise next spring, especially if the data worsens and provides an additional bid for gold.  I'm convinced if we breakout to the upside we're looking at a $200+ move. But the same goes for the downside.  There's been several short-term trades playing the range of $1320 and $1280, but there's not much to do in the middle.  It will run out of room in Sept or Oct.  It will be worth the wait.    


Thu, 08/14/2014 - 12:44 | 5092827 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture


4500/oz coming reliably but not for a while. All upside from here, however. +/- 4%

Thu, 08/14/2014 - 06:39 | 5091291 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

 What do stock markets around the world have in common with "girls gone wild" the video of college girls on spring break? The answer is both are crazy out of control. We have grown very complacent as money around the world has continued to flow into intangibles and promises.

Currently the market is all a twitter and locked in a "greed and stupidity loop." The loop can be explained as follows, stocks are rising so why get out, not getting out is causing the stocks to rise. When stocks do pullback it is a buying opportunity. Yes, we are indeed experiencing a double down and let it ride mentality. I don't have to explain the greed part. More about this subject in the article below.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!