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Mosul's Damn Dam
Via Scotiabank's Guy Haselmann,
Last week, the barbaric Islamic State (IS) seized the vitally important Mosul dam, dramatically impacting tactical options against them and potentially changing the future of the Middle East.
When the US coalition forces invaded Iraq in 2003, military intelligence developed invasion scenarios. One scenario included Iraqi forces placing detonation charges at the vitally important dam. If US forces were able to safely secure the dam, then they had a contingency plan to operate it and ensure critically important maintenance. The US quickly discovered the necessity for $27 million worth of frantically urgent repairs.
Since the dam was completed in the mid-1980’s it has required continuous (daily) maintenance, because it was built on top of gypsum, a soft mineral which dissolves when in contact with water. More than 50,000 tons of materials have been injected into the dam since 1986. The ‘sink hole’ type of cavities that constantly form have to be expeditiously plugged with “grout”, a liquefied mixture of cement and other additives.
A dam break does not require sabotage. Maintenance failure has the same result.
In December of 2006, the US Army Corp of Engineers (USACE) detailed a comprehensive report on the dam’s structure. The report called it, “the most dangerous dam in the world”, stating that even water pressure could buckle the flimsy foundation.
The Mosel dam is the fourth largest in terms of reservoir capacity in the Middle East with a capacity of 3 trillion gallons or 11.1 billion cubic meters. It is a key component of Iraq’s power grid and source of water for irrigation. It is located 31 miles north of the city of Mosul whose population is 1.7 million and 200 miles north of Bagdad. A dam collapse would release the 360 feet high waterline and reach Mosul in 2 hours.
A USACE official wrote a report in 2011 that was published in Water Power magazine estimating that dam failure could lead to as many as 500,000 civilian deaths.
In 2007, General Petraeus wrote a letter to the Iraqi PM warning of the safety concerns in the report and the consequences should the dam fail. In paraphrasing the USACE report, his letter said that “despite continuous grouting… the safety of the dam cannot be assured”. He went on to say that “…an instantaneous failure….could result in a flood wave 65 feet deep at the city of Mosul... and produce flooding all the way to Baghdad”.
President Obama recently authorized limited airstrikes in Iraq against IS. He said they were to prevent a humanitarian crisis and to protect American lives and assets in Erbil and Baghdad. He determined that there was risk of ‘genocide’ of the tens of thousands of Yazidis people trapped by IS in the mountains, as well as, risks to the consulate and American workers there, should Erbil be toppled. There is still hope on both fronts.
However, the greatest foreign policy failure to date in trying to prevent a potential ‘genocide’ is arguably allowing IS to take over the dam in the first place. The US has always known the importance of the dam. Furthermore, just as we had the ability to get Bin Laden at Tora Bora and failed to act, US officials knew that the IS leadership was assembled in one place and decided not to take them out.
David Kotok discussed some of the serious implications that the takeover of the dam has for the region and the significant strategic impact it will have on military options going forward. The bottom line is as he states, “We confront a high probability of an adverse outcome regardless of the actions of the combatants on both sides. There is no easy (way) out”.
I wholeheartedly agree with Mr. Kotok and his concluding remark that “this is a situation fraught with danger and risk”. Market implications could potentially be great. This situation bears close watching.
Cash is king with optionality.
“Deep into that darkness peering, long I stood there, wondering, fearing, doubting, dreaming dreams no mortal ever dared to dream before.” – Edgar Allan Poe
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Didn't Charlton Heston do this movie already?
Yeah, but Russel Crowe wasn't happy with the ark that he built, so he did a remake.
The real question of the day
Does the US embassy in Fagdad
Have flood insurance ?????
It wasn't a hurricane, it was a flood. Sorry about your luck New Orleans.
The Iraq's have a dream, which could turn into a nightmare. Where have I heard that before?
Why is it that we have no problem sending our drones to bomb people in 50 countries, but they couldn't let the video game nerds take out ISIS months ago?
Gypsum, huh?
Well now, Iraq is just a plethora of essential minerals and oils available for exploitation.
/snark
Now that the PM is gone they will get what they want and ISIS will blow the damn. Wish this would all play out the news is up and down so tomorrow all will be good dow up 300 gold up 50. Silver down 1$ due to this new exchange. Ukraine is invaded by Rusia by Friday at 5:00 so tje market forgets by Monday lets see how I do
.
Can someone give Obama the No Balls Prize?
The real question of the day
Does the US embassy in Fagdad
Have flood insurance ?????
Didn't Larry Silverstein buy that embassy just six months ago?
( for those who've read my posts before, yes, it's true, I just can't get over 9\11... ;) )
Another real question: Does it have a landing pad on the roof?
Think the relevant film was called "The Dam Busters"
A (planned?) accident waiting to happen, almost as stupid as building a nuclear reactor on a known fault line...
Not IS. the barbaric Islamic State is BIS.
I take it Noah is building that ark. Fast.
Divert water to Vegas....problem solved.
Noah didn't build that ark.
BHO
Nope those refugees are doing it Nd he marines gonna steal it
Is there a web cam on that sucker
It'll be like Mt St Hellen blowing
if hoover dam breaks watch out Vega. - oh nevermind
I've always got to chuckle at this biblical story but silently fret at how many adult human beings believe it. So, are descendent from Adam and Eve or Noah and his wife?
There were eight people on the ark, Noah's kids and their wives. so if they all had kids who fucked their first cousins This would account for the humans of today. Except the asisans. Where did the Asians come from. The Jews were black and Jesus was Arab and I assume Noah was white so that covers everyone but the Asians.
Also where did he find elephants in judea, or tree frogs.
Yeah it is terrifying that there are adults who believe this shit. And they can vote.
Book: What are we up to, sweetheart?
River Tam: Fixing your Bible.
Book: I, um...
[alarmed]
Book: What?
River Tam: Bible's broken. Contradictions, false logistics - doesn't make sense.
[she's marked up the bible, crossed out passages and torn out pages]
Book: No, no. You-you-you can't...
River Tam: So we'll integrate non-progressional evolution theory with God's creation of Eden. Eleven inherent metaphoric parallels already there. Eleven. Important number. Prime number. One goes into the house of eleven eleven times, but always comes out one. Noah's ark is a problem.
Book: Really?
River Tam: We'll have to call it early quantum state phenomenon. Only way to fit 5000 species of mammal on the same boat.
[rips out page]
I miss that show, but can't have examples of anti-heroes rebelling against the Gov't can we?
+1 for Firefly, can't believe it's been 12 years
I have a map of its location on mount Arafat for sale ?
+1. You have fallen victim to the drive by down voters who give you a red for talking shit(sounded like an honest assessment to me) about their silly religion, but no one bothers to explain how you are wrong or how it would work. "It makes sense if you don't think about it"
Every time I make a comment about how religion is nothing but a means of control I get the same thing. If these people were so sure of the benevolence of their magical sky fairy you'd think they'd at least bother defending him.
Because that is why you guys never give up trying. You want to believe that this awesome universe is just some accidental thing. But deep in your hearts you know better. I understand the angst. I believe God makes himself known to everyone. Trying to deny him the rest of your life will make you go Robin Williams. Go ahead and thank God when you enjoy a nice breeze and a beautiful sunset, you will feel much better.
P.S. You can't put me or especially God in a box. I can say FUCK all I want and still get to heaven.
" I can say FUCK all I want and still get to heaven."
Hahahaha - is that a piss take?
"But deep in your hearts you know better".
This is where we diverge himaroid. What the heck has the origin of the universe got to do with your heart? You don't think with your heart, your heart just pumps blood, you think with your brain. To an atheist sunshine, for example, is result of the fusion of two hydrogen atoms into a helium atom and releasing a prodigious amout of energy in the form of photons. To you, sunshine if a hug from god. We're talking on two different planes.
I personally don't give a shit if the universe was an accident or was created by god. Who the hell am I to have an opinion on this. All I care is an honest and objective investigation for all its futility, but hey, we're a curious ape. Your god exists in your mind and is to you what you are to your children. The great invisble grey bearded skyman is the cosmin father, someone you can metaphorically turn to when you feel sad or scared or uncertain. Wonderful, don't have any objection, the only objection I have is claiming this has anything to do with the external reality we call the universe.
Bow your head to those atoms when you say that. You guys sure are evangelical in your efforts. No convert here.
Don't you feel ashamed or belittled to even propose that spending eternity in deference to some superior being is a good thing. Your use of words "bow your head" is so utterly evocative of your primordial desire to worship a king. Look, I know once brain washed it's very hard to undo, but when I point out to you the primitiveness of your use of words let alone complete belief system, does this not spark some dim and distant light of truth?
"...evangelical in your efforts."
Pot, meet kettle... kettle, pot.
Don't lose site of this simple fact GC. We are all programmed from birth with information from our parents, teachers and men is dresses, frocks and robes. It's worthy of mulling this point for a long time. This is why science has emerged as a means to bypass this pre-programming. Science isn't perfect by any stretch of the imagination but does offer a way to investigate the world independent of an individuals up-bringing. So regardless of your belief in the great invisible grey bearded skyman the speed of light measured in one laboratory on one side of the world will be the same as another laboratory on the opposite side of the world. If by reading the bible you have some bizarre interpretation of what you think the speed of light should be, great, you are free to measure it, but your measurement goes up for peer review.
In the end, insofar as the origin of the universe no one knows, no one will ever know, this is an indefinably beautiful characteristic of life. I suspect if we knew we'd be bitterly disappointed and disenchanted with the answer and probably still wouldn't be satisfied. One thing I am certain of though is that the current version of theistic belief is laughably wrong. For some reason this universe has the ability to subject the human being to some deviously sick ironies. But if it was possib;e to know that 99% of the stories regarding jesus christ have been fabricated and that all these thousands of years and billions of people have been wrong, just as the millions of predecessors to our culture have been wrong, what a Monty Pythonesk swan song of the human race.
Ah, the down votes. There's something very powerful in highlighting the truth. The truth being the whole Noah collecting two of every animal on the face of the earth and putting them in a big boat is so patently stupid that I doubt it was ever intended to be anything but a Hollywood type script inserted into the bible to break the monotony of all the killing, smiting, stoning, burning and begatting. Anyone down voting has to take a long hard look at their state of mind and realise they are actually the first of the sheeple, long before MSM converted the average citizen into a non-thinking automaton.
I wonder if the creationists who claim the earth is 6000 years old and that we all descended from Adam and Eve (despite everyone being wiped out in the great flood so therefore we all must have descended from Noah but that is one of the many stupidities overlooked and never spoken about) have run the numbers over the likelihood of being able to produce 7 billion people in 6000 years given a 9 month gestation, a massive historical infant mortality, a much lower average life span than today and a reproductive time frame for the average female of say 20 years (if that ! ! !). It's not possible people, it takes many hundreds of thousands of years to create the mess we have, even humans aren't so bad as to be able to create this mess in 6000 years.
You see, you gullible lot have been programmed with this nonsense and have never objectively just stood back and looked at the cold, hard, facts and to be frank, the utter dumbness of biblical claims. You're too far in to be able to say now "yeh, it is pretty stupid" because you have to save face. Just like the Fed will have to double down again and again and again because they do not want their world view exposed to be false. You're no different. Your world view, as it is based on the bible is false. End of story.
Despite me disagreeing vociferously with your world view I do give you asll credit for perusing a website like ZH that does at least expose you to alternative views. It'd be interesting to know of anyone who has had the guts to relinquish their monotheistic views after exposure to these threads.
But...but...the Ark has been found! There's even a souvenir shop close to it!
http://www.sunnyskyz.com/good-news/470/Noah-s-Ark-Has-Been-Found-Why-Are...
( /s... Snopes debunked it: http://www.snopes.com/religion/noahsark.asp )
Hahahaha, even if a cloud appears in the sky that vaguely resembles a face, thesists (god love them) claim it's jesus. This is horribly banal stuff and demonstrates just how rooted humans are in primitive thinking.
Everyone believes in something, oh Scientific one...I believe I'll have another beer! Try catching up on yer reading: "The Tao of Physics," for example.
The old testy is Jewish mythology, written by a Jew in praise of Jews. You can find the same everywhere around the world. Like mercan ceptionalism. It's all fucking bullshit.
It'll be an uphill battle to undo the brain washing. Theism has had a 2000 year head start, give or take, and many billions of hours of repeating the same diatribe over and over again. Mind you, education (science, maths, history, humanities, ethics, english, politics) has worked wonders in a phenomenally short period of time.
There was a Jew AND an Arab on board?! ...did they get along? ...just curious.
They were until the Arab blocked the head.
Ahhhh, to be a pig on Noah's ark. You'd be the only creature who didn't have to sleep with one eye open.
Not sure, but reading and writing came from Iraq.
cnbs says it's bullish
Given this statement "However, the greatest foreign policy failure to date in trying to prevent a potential ‘genocide’ is arguably allowing IS to take over the dam in the first place. The US has always known the importance of the dam. Furthermore, just as we had the ability to get Bin Laden at Tora Bora and failed to act, US officials knew that the IS leadership was assembled in one place and decided not to take them out."
that makes me think all is not what it seems.
It is exactly what it seems. This is a proxy army funded by uncle mic to launch a proxy war against the Shia crescent and fracture the Middle East forever so it can be easily mNaged by the oil companies.
Unbelievable they can get away with it. Sad these atrocities are being committed by our covert agenda.
But I do like my gasoline so I'll just eat my Big Mac and shut the fuck up now.
It's tempting to thnk so - but Occam's razor suggests it is more unintended and unimagined consequences of our previous foregin policy fuck-ups. We were trying to fight a proxy war in Syria to topple Assad - but the people we were arming had other plans. What a shocker. Nothing like that's ever happened before. it's not like we were ever arming Osama Bin Laden, or Saddam Hussein.
I am sure this dude has a few points wrong, but he mostly has it right. Most critically, how have these mongoloids managed to not kill a single American, nor even try, let alone jews. Scrape that across Occam's razor. SImplest answer is they are not allowed to. Some fuckin jihadis...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEuJ5v3AbJg
I's no accident.
I am sure this dude has a few points wrong, but he mostly has it right. Most critically, how have these mongoloids managed to not kill a single American, nor even try, let alone jews. Scrape that across Occam's razor. SImplest answer is they are not allowed to. Some fuckin jihadis...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEuJ5v3AbJg
I's no accident.
The dam doesn't threaten any oil fields, does it? Well, then, no problem.
bet IS have some US submarines, they seem to have everything else
and if the Dam breaks, they'll be exposed.
Do they have the Star of David painted on the conning tower?
I feel bad for the Iraqis who will be deprived of water when it is revealed that they live in Greater Israel and the water and oil is not for them.
An American citizen, not a citizen of “Dual.”
It's almost like they wanted this to happen. Develop a big enough crisis and of course we MUST do something. After all, we are America the exceptional.
They are the Enema! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKofnVkUwBA
And don't forget power generation.Nasty area with no air cooling.
This issue is all BS.Bush bombed flat water plants,sewerage,electric substations,everything necessary for society to function.
Then there was an embargo on food and medicine for ten years that even the europeans were objecting to.
The primary question becomes: "Were these religious minorities better off under the old system?"
To ask the question is to answer it.
Can they live without Starbucks and McDonalds and Walmart?
The Russians built the dam so if it fails, the USA and the MSM can blame it on Putin. More sanctions against the evil Russkies.... Yeah baby.
Except for
ignoring all the criminal US activities which brought about the current situation,
presuming a relevant motivation for US actions is preventing "genocide",
bemoaning not having made even more drone assassinations as a preventative solution,
and suggesting that the principal "risks" posed by the current situation "going forward"
are to US military "options", "market" volatility,
and whatever may "change" from his imagined Middle East "future"
... the article is pretty much dead on.
.
So the rags built a giant dam on top of friggin' drywall, with three trillion gallons of water behind it.
The entire Tigris valley is Darwin's waiting room.
The dams and reservoirs built in the ME & AfPak are no-bid contracts by Morrison & Knudsen, Becktel, Foster Wheeler, Brown & Root, GE (Turbines), etel.
All engineering is done by US Army Corp. of Engineering *(without borders) **(USACE)
& ***Engineers without borders-- USA ?
http://www.ewb.usa.org/ ?NGO?
That explains it, they are fucked.
correction on link: http://ewb.usa.org/
:-(
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kajaki_Dam Ps. These are dams and reservoirs built by american no-bid contractors in Afghanistan? Below:
http://www.potiori.com/List_of_dams_and_reservoirs_in_Afghanistan.html
This is a comprehensive list of Dams and Reservoirs built in Iraq:
http://www.potiori.com/List_of_dams_and_reservoirs_in_Iraq.html
Per Wikipedia:
Construction on the Mosul Dam began in 1980 by a German-Italian consortium that was led by Hochtief Aktiengesellschaft.
@ rwe2late
i stand corrected :-) you are correct?
during the mosul (1980-86) dam construction in northern (syrian and turkish border) iraq. the american's [& british/ french) couldn't afford the risk of having a ussa contractor on iraqi soil (*with a full blown war going on and american/british/french, working both sides of the conflict?) territory. why? the iraqi's started an eight 9/1980 - 8/1988) year war with iran. it devastated iran and their population. the kurdish territory was not involved in the conquering sides. the war ended in a cease fire with no clear-cut victor declared on either sides-- just as the korean war ended with only the 38th parallel line reestablished in 6/1960 - 7/1953
this is the only reason the german's and italian's got the contract
jmo
Oh come on....it's one thing to counter the MSM story - and remove the sugar coating. It's quite another to be simply alarmist! There are enough real serrious issues that are happening TODAY than to present some worrisome issues that may happen at some time in the future....
I wonder if the PLCs that control the dam's valves will be Stuxnetted and blamed on ISIS.
ISIS just waiting for Orders from their handlers.
My Dam Blown Prediction: Day 3, and counting
AC
Isn't Mosul their town these days?
Blowing up stuff, dams included, and blaming others.
ISIS is Just Us.
Levees Blown Say Eyewitnesses - Media Ignores ThemI want to start seeing random Iraqis just kind of wandering up to shit and "claiming it on behalf of the this-that-or-the-other brotherhood".
Maybe pose menacingly.
some people say that the levees simply failed, and that the incidental 'explosion' sounds were those of electrical transformers exploding. you never know though; the 'government' - being comprised of 'humans' - is fairly capable of anything foul.
read up on OPERATION NORTHWOODS.....and i would not rule it out----corrupt scum run our government both Dems and Republican
Del Shannon - Runaway (Rare Stereo Version)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziLagAgoPCE (2:20)
oBUMMER weasel fucker and crew were too busy bothering the TEA Party. HaHa. Now they are surrounded.
No matter what crazy arab does what crazy harm to other crazy arabs in any crazy arab country, the US in some way will be the scapegoat. Somehow this is what the central bankers want.
How many dams and other pieces of critical infrastructure, if given the same inspection by the Corps of Engineers, would require the same? Why are we spending billions to repair infrastructure in Iraq, while our own crumbles?
"Shock and Awe" already destroyed the dam??
Sounds to me like a pretext for an invasion.
The Ottomans are coming.
The damn dam, ISIS and Iraq are not America’s f***ing problem. If the people who live there won’t fight for their freedom, let them be beheaded. Not one more American should die over there. We can offer them food and military supplies, but NO troops and no bombs. Let China help them, or Russia…we are exceptional in only one way, how incredibly stupid we are. The sheeple just go along with whatever fairy tales the government puts out, and mainstream media is just the Voice of the Government.
We are $18T in debt from 12 years of war and not one bit safer. We gave Iraq at least $1T and their army ran away. ISIS is able to fund themselves and Iraq has plenty of oil, let the Iranians fight for themselves and we stay out. The Kurds seem reasonable, but they were crushed quickly in a fight with ISIS. F*** them all! Fight or die, that’s it.
When we finish pulling out of Afghanistan, their government will fall to the Taliban in 6 mo or less, and Karzai will flee the country with all our $$. We will offer him and his entourage asylum, of course.
TPTB will offer him safety, in exchange for our money.
If Iraq decided to accept other currencies for their oil, than Iraq is our problem.
US has exported more dollars than whatever we actually produced for too many years. The financial engineered facade which support this relentless dollar export has started to crack since 2009 and is still spreading. The only thing that is holding this cracked wall is the continuous support, via usage of the dollar, from the rest of the world. Our GDP hasn't grown fast enough to support the dollar for too many years and is too late to play catch up.
Any country contemplating abandonment of the dollar must face turmoil and chaos or the petrol dollar will collapse. ISIS is not only taking away the oil which Iraq would sell in yuan or ruble, it's also a warning to the Saudis to not even think about anything but the dollar.
It wouldn't be politically correct for anyone to put a finger in the dyke.
If Obomba had supported Assad instead of ISIS none of this would have happened...
Mosul Baghdad US ISIS boom
Mosul Baghdad US ISIS boom
Mosul Baghdad US ISIS boom
And they swam and they swam
right over the dam
History will judge the US invasion and conquest of Iraq as one of modern history's major fuck ups. I can still see Bush and the media army of liars, all screaming self defense and demanding war. I recall Americans with flags and yellow ribbons all over their cars. Millions glued to CNN watching American smart bombs destroy thousands. The we all cheered and waited for the already planned victory Parade in New York city. It nearly came off, but when Sunnis began fighting back and the parade marchers couldn't get leave from combat to march, then reality set in. Media hype kept war fever high and plenty of flags and demands that we support the troops answered any question about what this war was all about.
We got what we should have known was coming. But media and politicians feed a brainless public lies and the public feel right in line. Now this same gang screams for war on Russia. And once again, a majority of Americans now see Russia as a direct threat to our way of life. Here we fucking go again. Sheep never learn.
All true, except this time does not feel the same to me. Even if the public is still fooled to the same degree, the world is in a much shakier place. Realization pending. (Wiley C.)
The invasion was not a problem and was very successful.
The problem came with the hubris of "nation building", trying to convert an Islamic state to democracy.
All Bush had to do was leave the Iraqi military intact, appoint a new head honcho and make clear he'd go the same way as Saddam but faster if he didn't behave and the US could have largely withdrawn.
Sure the new guy would have been brutal. That is what it takes to run an Islamic country and keep it stable.
That would have saved hundreds of billions, saved hundreds of thousands of lives and got a better outcome.
Never mind, the US government always knows best.
now heres a thought: why not have left Saddam Hussein in and have saved Billions of dollars, millions of lives and the country would be intact and stable in the first place?
Saddam Hussein had to be rid of since he was going to sell his oil in euro. Bush was protecting the petrol dollar status from the encroaching euro.
Do you really believe the Europeans were mad at Bush over the Iraqi people or Saddam Hussein? When Qaddafi decided to sell Libya's oil in gold back Dinar, these same Europeans had no concern over the same BS international laws which they claimed Bush had violated regarding Iraq.
I'm not defending Bush since he did screw up for not installing another puppet in Iraq. But those who blamed Bush were no angels.
When this dam blows.... that's when I will BTFD!
Did a jew just buy that dam (couple of months?)?
So... buy HAL? They're probably gonna get called in to fix it.
The risk to American personnel in Erbil refers not to the dozen or so people at the consulate (who could be evacuated on a single flight) but to the hundreds in Erbil working for U.S. and other foreign oil companies.