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The Bond Market Explained for Mohamed El-Erian

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By EconMatters

 

Business Media Rock Star

 

On Thursday Mohamed A. El-Erian was on CNBC`s Halftime Report and he said something that a lot of people have been saying regarding the bond market, and it needs to be cleared up, because the amount of poor understanding regarding the bond market by people who make their living, i.e., are in the financial market business is astounding. It is even more mind blowing given that Mohamed A. El-Erian actually worked at a Bond Firm in PIMCO, and helped manage Harvard` s endowment in the past.

 


Just Mirrors What Everybody Else Says

 

He reiterated what many have said, and I will paraphrase that the Bond Market and Stock Market are telling you two different stories about the economy. This is just flat out wrong, and shows a poor understanding of what has been going on in the Bond Market ever since QE and zero percentinterest rates became the default central bank policy. And frankly it is a mistake that should never be made by someone who worked at PIMCO, a firm that specializes in bonds for goodness sake! I know his role was mainly to represent PIMCO and go on Television, and create exposure for the firm, but he has access to the best minds of the industry every day, and he is completely clueless when it comes to such an important distinction regarding the bond market. Moreover, since many people make this same mistake I thought I would clear this false notion up once and for all regarding bonds.

 

 

The Bond Market Basics Explained

 

 

Here goes the Bond Market just like the Stock Market is a long oriented market, what that means is that right now we are in a Bull Market for Bonds, i.e., price is going up. When I say long oriented, this is with regard to price and not yield, long oriented refers to the fact that many of the participants are long only, they don`t short bonds, they don`t short bond futures, they only invest from the long side of the market, i.e., they only buy bonds, so by default they are long price and not yield.

 

 

Long-Oriented Market: Pension Funds, Insurance Firms, 401k Money, Bond Funds


 

 

This is similar to the Stock Market as 401k money doesn`t short the stock market or the bond market.  Generally speaking, investors either designate money to go into bond funds or stock funds from the long side. The same could be said for many insurance companies, pension plans etc. they only buy bonds. Just as the majority of the stock market participants have a bias or predilection to play from the long side of the market, the same can be said for the bond market. 

 

Bond Vigilantes have been “Bought Out”!

 

The days of the ‘bond vigilantes’ dyed a long time ago in the united states, they were prevalent in the European Mess a couple years ago before Mario Draghi gave an implicit backstop that killed this vigilante movement. So by nature the bond market is a long biased market, and investors are loving the bull run in bonds, just like the bull run in stocks, and throughout this loose monetary experiment, bonds and stocks have spent the majority of the time both being in full bull market mode, it is because of the liquidity provided by ZIRP & QE Infinity where the Fed is outright buying bonds. 

 

Focus on Price, and Not Yield

 

So the fundamental mistake is to think in terms of a low yield telling you anything about the economy, as it is price that you should be focusing on.  And for the same reason that stocks are near all-time highs is the same exact reason bonds are near all-time highs in price. Lots of liquidity to buy assets, all assets whether it is commodities, stocks or bonds. To repeat -- stocks and bonds are not telling you two different things, they are telling you the exact same thing: There is a bunch of cheap money sloshing around the financial system Thanks ZIRP and QE Infinity

[As an aside, sure the German 10-Year yield is lower because Europe is struggling right now and it started going lower when investors tried to front run European QE as a possibility, however whether the German Bund is 1% or 1.3%, it is also primarily low in yield for the same exact reason that all bond yields are low, Global ZIRP by Central Banks creating massive liquidity in the financial system, i.e., borrow cheap and buy anything resembling an asset, as there is more liquidity than there are assets to purchase! This is one sign that you have a destructive Global Monetary Policy by Central Banks that incentivizes poor and inefficient capital allocation strategies by financial players.]

 

ZIRP Equals Bull Market for All Assets!

 

 

Basically, since the beginning of ZIRP both stocks and bonds have been in a bull market, and have had a considerable headwind at their backs pushing “PRICES” up! ZIRP for the most part has rendered the old relationship of Bonds and Stocks being ‘opposing’ markets obsolete, i.e., when things are bad in the economy the bond market is in bull mode, and when things are good then the stock market is in bull mode, there is some of this relationship on the margin, but not like in pre-ZIRP days! In other words the Federal Reserve has completely destroyed this relationship through ZIRP and QE, and it is one of my major criticisms of the program, the Fed should not be involved in financial markets, this is not their purview!

 

It`s all about making money!

 

So the only thing the bond market is telling you, Mohamed A. El-Erian, is that thanks to ZIRP there are a lot of investors thinking they can make money being long bonds, just like stocks, whether it is for the yield arbitrage carry of zero percent borrowing, or the price appreciation because so many people are pre-disposed to be long bonds, and there is just so much liquidity in the system and too few assets period whether they are stocks, bonds, commodities or rare artwork, in the end it is all about making money. 

 

The bond market is long because they think they can make money, they don`t give a rat`s ass about Europe`s economy or geo-political concerns, only so as it helps their current already long disposition. [Sure Geo-political concerns have some investors truly seeking safety, but more than anything hedge funds are front running this tendency, and crowding into the trade, but whether the 10-year is 2.40% or 2.6% is really minor relative to why it is below 3% yield in a 2.5% GDP growth environment, and this is a result of ZIRP and an abundance of cheap money with a need to be put to work chasing returns. If you cancel ZIRP overnight the 10-year yield wakes up the next day at 4% even with any geo-political concerns! Think of it this way, what was the 10-year yield in the Iraq war during the first Bush presidency with a normal monetary policy? It`s not like the economy was growing drastically better during this stretch versus now, the major difference is then there was a ‘normal’ fed funds rate, and it is essentially zero, and in an ‘abnormal’ mode!]

 

Think of it this way, no matter how much one is predisposed to buy bonds, with a normalized fed funds rate, pick what it should be in a 2.5% growth economy, but it sure the heck isn`t zero percent or 25 basis points, let`s just say a fed funds rate of 2.5% which is still extraordinarily low, well obviously the 10-year cannot trade with a yield of 2.5% yield because investors would be losing money when you factor in the inflation rate, they just wouldn`t make that trade, and the 10-year yield would probably conservatively be somewhere in the neighborhood of 5.5 to 6% yield, so you can see it all starts with the Fed Funds Rate! And having a ZIRP Rate in a non-recession era environment is just bizarre central bank policy, and has no economic validity behind it. In short it is just creating massive bubbles in markets like bonds, and the ‘normalization’ process or exit is just a recipe for disaster – it is insane, irresponsible central bank policy! 

 

Investors have been primarily long the bond market since ZIRP began, and only get out when the GDP numbers, or inflation reports, or the employment numbers get real hot, and they need to protect their massive profits! 

 

Pull Up a 7-Year Chart for Bonds & Stocks – they tell the same ZIRP Story!

 

This is what has been going on in the bond market for the last 7 years! This isn`t a new phenomenon, to have low yields and high prices! The business media made the same mistake that El-Erian made by focusing on the yield, i.e., a low yield means the outlook is bad; whereas the business media should focus on Price like the actual market participants, high price means a bull market for bonds just like stocks, and keep being long until the Bull Run ends! In short both markets are telling the same exact story, tons of liquidity because of ZIRP, and why they probably will be both telling the same exact story when the liquidity dries up, sell, sell, sell!

 

Stocks & Bonds both in Bear Market when ZIRP Ends!

 

We are already seeing the QE tapering start to de-juice the oil markets, my guess is that bond yields start to rise and stocks start to sell off as QE ends altogether, remember there is still QE money coming into markets every month through October! And once there is no QE backstop, and interest rate rises are just around the corner, March 2015 by my best guess, bond yields and stock declines will be saying the same exact story again, no more liquidity in the form of ZIRP, run for the exits, and they will both be in bear markets! 

 

When the Levee Breaks: Planned or Forced Normalization Process?

 

The bond market is such a crowded trade from the long side with 7 years of ZIRP behind it, that when it breaks, i.e., yields start climbing as interest rates rise, the velocity of yield rises is going to spook the stock market, and there is no ‘safe haven’ for them to hide out in, not even Gold in a rising interest rate environment. This is what scares the hell out of the Federal Reserve, and why they keep stalling, and trying to push the inevitable down the road by moving employment and inflation targets.

The problem with this strategy is they make the ‘exit’ far worse, they exacerbate the problem because instead of raising the fed funds rate by 25 basis points at a time, they will be forced by external factors getting out of control to raise the fed funds rate by 50 basis points at a time and maybe even a 100 basis points at a time, if the inflation numbers on the wage side really start spiking, which based upon economic theory is in the cards. 

 

Everything has ‘Costs’ associated with them!

 

So a ‘normalization’ of the fed funds rate that happens in a shorter period versus gradually rising the rate which they could start doing right now is just another indication that utter incompetence and sheer irresponsibility resides at one of the most important institutions from a power perspective in the Federal Reserve, and the US needs to start recruiting different types of individuals for the Federal Reserve. 

 

As from the Greenspan Era through the Yellen era, these Fed members are just not qualified for the job, given their policy decisions and performance over this Central Bank Era. It is so irresponsible that it borderlines on ‘criminal stupidity’, creating bubble after bubble in the economy and asset prices, and never running the model out to its conclusion when the unintended consequences of extreme policy measures come into play. The Federal Reserve needs members who have actual market experience trading products, and understand market dynamics within the framework of broader economic theory.

 

The Federal Reserve in Denial Mode

 

If you routinely do stupid and irresponsible things with regard to extreme monetary policies, why should you be surprised when financial markets do extreme things when you remove extreme monetary policy? The incompetence at the Federal Reserve right now is just off the charts, and nobody seems to be paying attention because Financial Markets are too busy getting fat at the ZIRP trough!

 

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Sat, 08/16/2014 - 18:21 | 5103152 Arthur
Arthur's picture

Yes we all know that sooner or later things will go BOOM and any who is shorting the market at that time will get rich.

The challenge is figuring out when.  When someone knows please advise your fellow Zerohedger's.

Even if there is a 25% correction tommorrow you would have been better off going all in three years ago and taking the hit.

 

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 10:41 | 5101859 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

as someone said below "yields do matter", yes, fundamentally, it is imperative that those who are actually creating real products of real value know what the current cost of capital is.

The artificial suppression of interest rates means capital is being desrespected and capital and talent will always go were they are respected.

"full faith and credit"

tick tock motherfuckers.

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 10:38 | 5101847 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Econmatters was all about the Fed "saving the markets" and now this useless paper-pushing douchbag is joining what many of us have been saying for years?

Gee, thanks Captain Obvious.  Glad this fuck isn't managing any of my wealth.

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 09:32 | 5101654 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

During the "boom times" when asset values are going up lots of people think they are getting rich. In inflationary times government also does well as tax revenues grow. Not only does government get to spend the money they print, the side effects of inflation on taxes are good for government, though bad for their subjects.

By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. said John Maynard Keynes. As the central banks print like crazy to control interest rates on bonds they devalue the currency.

While there are not many Bond Vigilantes there are many Currency Vigilantes. Changes in the value of a currency directly affect "buying power" and the value of assets. Inflation, deflation, what is something worth? More on this subject in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/02/when-will-inflation-strike_1.html

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 08:52 | 5101614 himaroid
himaroid's picture

Gotta love getting some money every month from the assholes at the U.S. Treasury. Recoup.

If you think yields are low now, what do you think will happen when the true state of the national and world economies are realized by the crowd. The yield on the ten year will go negative in a flight to "safety". That will be the time to cash out the gains on bonds and convert to precious. Just before the fed goes Zimbabwe.

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 08:07 | 5101549 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

As far as El-Erian he has more of a clue than Gross. Gross is an overpaid idiot.

I agree with the author that bond and stock "market" prices are not correlated but yet there is/was a connection. Both can move together during times of true economic growth/contraction or during times of monetary "accomodation" plus gubbermint deficit spending which mimicks economic growth for a time but really just pushes out the day of reckoning and adds to financial inequality and price inflation.

Beyond that this piece demonstrates a profound ignorance of market mechanisms, logic, conclusions, assumptions, and overall strategy imo. I would point out some of the more glaring examples but I don't have time. Instead I will leave it to you to revise and resubmit at a later date.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/bonds/bonds3.asp

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 07:14 | 5101507 HpDeskjet
HpDeskjet's picture

This guy keeps on promoting his short treausuries position time after time after time and is loosing money on it rapidly. 2-3 months ago a similar piece where 2,45% was "the entry point of a lifetime to short bonds". We are 2.35 now dumbass...

I will repeat it once more: End of QE = sell risky assets. Not bonds... For now macro economic numbers dont matter like they havent mattered for 5 years now (or more).

Im looking forward to your new piece when 10y treasuries < 2%, somewhere in the coming months

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 08:39 | 5101594 himaroid
himaroid's picture

The new piece will be his high jump obituary.

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 02:25 | 5101290 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

Bonds are for Fags. Capish? stack and watch the paper monkies slowly eat each other alive. Enabling the ponzi is all bond purchases do. Rememer what priciples are?

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 00:24 | 5101126 knukles
knukles's picture

Seems to me, that the Bond Vigilantes this time around have been the folks who in a highly contrarian manner, correctly with the public information available, weighed the evidence and have participated nicely in the ownership of longer term debt obligations.
That is not to say that trend will continue nor be curtailed... I'm making no forecast.
I am merely stating that the Vigilantes this time around are properly discounting a terrible Global Economic Future and Pervasively Expansionary Central Bank Policies with the Context of a Liquidity Trap.

The Vigilantes Are Those Espousing the Current Economic Condition of a Liquidity Trap and thereby Pleading, Screaming, Demanding to no avail, that the system be reformed, for the current conditions are non-monetary in nature.

It is as difficult for many to comprehend as is the fact that Einstein's correct statement of c, the speed of light being constant was dismissed as he assumed a convenient and conflicting assumption that one began moving, c does not remain constant.  If you were to jump off Earth and speed up to 93,000 mp/s (half of the rule of 186,000 mp/s), light wound unfortunately for Einstein, still be coming and going away from you at.... 186,000 mp/s.  That's why it's a constant.  That's the New, Modern position in the realm of Quantum Mechanics. 

 

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 02:02 | 5101254 Eirik Magnus Larssen
Eirik Magnus Larssen's picture

El-Erian literally is Mensa material. The author of this blog overreaches if he believes he can teach this man anything on how bond markets function.

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 08:38 | 5101592 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

He has a great moustache ,in any case.

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 06:57 | 5101488 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

His point is simply that unlike in the past when you could look at yields and extract information about the economy, you can no longer do that. There is no economy acting on yields, only CBs

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 07:36 | 5101524 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

You are correct. Wish I had read your post prior to wasting my time reading the article.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 23:25 | 5101002 Bilderberg Member
Bilderberg Member's picture

Actually the real plan is to devalue the dollar through zero interest rates. Not collapse the greenback but devalue it about 1.5 - 2% a year for the next 20 years.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 23:05 | 5100949 whidbey-2
whidbey-2's picture

A serious problem with no known fix, that does not involve pain for everyone alive today.  In the end it will have worldwide affects and the capacity of nation states to survive the ordeal is in serious doubt.  We may be about to start civilization over again.  The Obama reset for civiliztion and economies is near.

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 10:17 | 5101776 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

 Both people and governments have lived beyond their means by taking on debt they cannot repay. Over the last several decades we have created entitlement societies built on the back of the industrial revolution, technological advantages, capital accumulated from the colonial era, and the domination of global finances. Promises were made on the assumption that the advantages we enjoyed would continue.

Ever greater prosperity and entitlements were to be sustained through debt financed consumption growth. In that eerie fantasy world, debt fueled consumption was to be the catalyst to bring about evermore growth. Now reality has begun to come into focus and it is becoming apparent that this is unsustainable. The entitlements and promises that have piled up have become overwhelming. More on why this system will fail in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/08/modern-monetary-theory-is-wrong-d...

 

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 22:31 | 5100860 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

"The days of the ‘bond vigilantes’ dyed a long time ago in the united states,"    What color were they dyed?

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 22:55 | 5100926 Crawdaddy
Crawdaddy's picture

Died in the wool, stillborn, from which we infer their mothers were possibly sheep. Or killed by a murderous sheep.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 18:56 | 5100125 verum quod lies
verum quod lies's picture

The bonds market explained for EconMatters:

Blah, blah, blah, ... contrary to your tortured ramblings yields do matter. Once more, there is a direct and inverse relationship between bond prices and yields. Therefore, if bond prices matter then yields matter; and, yes, we all agree that QE/money printing or whatever it is being called are in large part to blame. Death to the Fed.

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 08:36 | 5101589 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

The speed with which you drive between NYC and Philadelphia is irrelevant. The key parameter is the time taken for the trip.
/sarc off

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 00:52 | 5101169 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Yeah perrty much. I mean loe and behold if the economy grows at two percent and that's where the ten year is headed!

Or "we can baffle them with bullshit" of course.

Persistently low yields are a precursor for deflation and default. My money is on Russia and Poopie Pants. He's just not gonna get there from here.

Quite honestly I don't know what comes after President Putin. I'm not sure I want to find out either.

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