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Canada Releases Atrocious Jobs Data; Then Revises It Above The Highest Estimate Following Public Outcry

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A week ago, Canada released a jobs number that was a simply put a disaster: instead of creating the 20,000 jobs analysts had expected, the country's Statistics bureau reported that a tiny 200 had been added in the month of July, following a drop of 9,400K the month before. This promptly led to screams of pain and howls of bloody murder - after all the data is clearly not allowed to show negative trends: as the Globe and Mail reported, National Bank chief economist Stéfane Marion was among the more optimistic forecasters, with an expectation that July will actually show a net gain of 30,000 jobs and who immediately took offense with the report.  "That was mind-boggling,” he said. “These are numbers we don’t see outside recessions. I just don’t believe we’re in a recession, so therefore I would expect the full-time employment numbers to be [higher].”

And sure enough, since one can't possibly have a recession in a centrally-planned world, just hours after the release, and following the outcry from the cognitive dissonance, Statistics Canada yielded to pressure for a correction and promptly admitted it had made a mistake and was forced to correct its report. However instead of pulling a laughable ISM "seasonal adjustment glitch" excuse, the agency said it failed to count workers who should have been categorized as full-time employees, even though it clearly did count most full-time employees. Just not those that were critical to keep the illusion going.

Which is why this morning it was take two for the Canada jobs print, which was as follows: In July, Canada employment increased 41.7K in July according to Statistics Canada's second attempt, from -9.4K in prior month. This was about 41K higher than the previous "erroneous" print, and double the original estimate: high enough to make everyone happy. In fact, it was so high, it surpassed the highest range of the forecast, which topped out at 41.4K based on 20 economists.

The biggest variable was in the net change in full time employment, which dropped by -18.1K in July from 33.5K in prior month. This compared to an original print of -59.7K in the "erroneous" number. Offsetting the weak, if revised, full-time jobs number was part time employment which rose 59.9K in July from -43.0K in prior month. Obamacare now in Canada too? The good news, this was "less" than the original part-time report of +60.0K.

Other revisions:

  • Private employment increased 54.6K in July from -21.0K in prior month; private employment was originally reported as +26.3K
  • Public employment increased 24.2K in July from -11.9K in prior month; public employment was originally reported as +3.2K
  • Self employment fell 37K in July from 23.4K in prior month; self employment was originally reported as -29.2K

In other words, Canada mysterioualy had a swing of over 67K self-employed jobs in the month. Congratulations.

And so on. The bottom line: it is increasingly becoming the case that "unpleasant" official economic numbers are released, they show ugly "recessionary" data, and are subsequently revised much higher to stem the public outcry as analysts scream "bloody recession." Rinse, repeat... At least until the revisions can no longer mask the actual truth of the underlying data.

As for Canada Statistics, it was confident this wholesale, and very laughable error, was an "isolated incident." At least until next time.

 

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Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:11 | 5096806 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

It's not Canada's fault that they put the "+" and "-" keys right next to each other.

After all, as everyone knows, clubbing seals makes your fingers fat.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:14 | 5096824 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

I met a Canadian once. Fingers like bratwurst. Its amazing they get anything done.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:18 | 5096849 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

that was one of the funniest things i have ever read. thank you.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:24 | 5096884 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

Who gives a fuck about Canada anyways?  It is nothing more than a second rate puppet state of the USSA.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:27 | 5096903 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Just don't piss us off or we may do something drastic like invade and burn down the White House. Maybe we'll recall all our comedians. We know Amerikans have no fucking sense of humor.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:34 | 5096944 813kml
813kml's picture

You can take back the Bieber but leave Trebek alone.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:46 | 5097017 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

I thought all the Canadians bought those cheap merikan houses and moved south of the border, eh?

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:52 | 5097069 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

I always wondered when they'd just start drawing the charts they wanted.  I guess now we know.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 10:02 | 5097118 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

Yep, as I said, a second rate extension of the USSA.

BTW, do you know why Canadians always say Eh?  It's short for Asshole.

Welcome to Canada, EH?

Nice to meet you, EH?

We love Americans, EH?

 

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 11:03 | 5097615 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Unfortunately, the current government under Steven Harper is exactly that.  American sycophant and lackey is the only way to describe him.  It is funny that people in Canada joke about the Conservative party being dominated by the old Alberta Reform Party and it is true.  The funny thing about a political base in Calgary is that its money comes from American oil companies... so here we have a guy whose power base is from an area dominated by American oligarchs and is a lackey of the American government (read: oligarchs)... go figure.

Oh and... elections don't matter in Canada any more than they do in the 'States...

The other voting 'options' are no better.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 12:10 | 5098070 Ozy_mandias
Ozy_mandias's picture

LL your comment doesn't really make sense. Are you implying that every time a Canadian says 'eh' they are calling themselves an asshole? Or that they are calling every person they are addressing an asshole? Just need to clarify eh?

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:24 | 5096885 Slave
Slave's picture

I bet the women like it.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 10:41 | 5097422 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

I'm generally a genetic disaster but am gifted with nice fingers of all things. My dalliance with 10 pin bowling helped harpoon that for my left hand regrettably.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 11:02 | 5097612 mt paul
mt paul's picture

you only need so many

artificial inseminators

 

for the beaver population 

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 10:22 | 5097302 onthesquare
onthesquare's picture

If the model does not fit the data;  change the data

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 13:12 | 5098409 Toburk
Toburk's picture

Two years ago they changed their methodology, but it didn't accomodate the way teachers are "layed off" for two months a year.

 

They literally forgot to acount for the teachers (for both public and private schools) going on summer break again, and thus not showing up on the payrolls. Exact same thing happened last year.

 

 

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:11 | 5096815 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Fudgin' 'er a bit up der too, eh?

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:42 | 5096965 813kml
813kml's picture

The numbers are a bit loonie, but it's good to see the Canucks have finally embraced modern statistics.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:47 | 5097027 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

They recalculated the numbers after deciding that Canadian mercenaries working for the Kiev Yatzis should be counted as "employed".

https://pp.vk.me/c619321/v619321108/12356/PKTJR89f3aw.jpg

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:49 | 5097050 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

They also goosed their GNP up by including the weapons they are sending to the Ukraine on behalf of the USSA, paid by the dumbass taxpayers of Canuckistan.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:56 | 5097107 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Nah, our numbers are inflated due to our outrageous housing market. "It IS different here". The implosion, when not if it happens, will truly be amazing. Our government is getting ready by preparing bail-in laws. When that happens I will strongly look at removing all my money from Canadian Banks. Pity eh?

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:59 | 5097128 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

Only for the suckers who will have money in Canuck banks.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 10:15 | 5097253 Debt-Penitent
Debt-Penitent's picture

However instead of pulling a laughable ISM "seasonal adjustment glitch" excuse, the agency said it failed to count workers who should have been categorized as full-time employees...

 

"You want a revision?  We'll give you a revision to show it's been totally REVISED".

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:13 | 5096818 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

TPTB think the peasants are morons.........sadly, they are correct.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:14 | 5096823 JailBank
JailBank's picture

"I don't believe we are in a receesion." HAHAHA this dude is going to just imagine it away. If I don't open my eyes the monsters can't get me.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:19 | 5096859 Wait What
Wait What's picture

exactly my thoughts. the global political class is in such a delusional state right now, when reality finally intrudes they are going to shit themselves something fierce.

"no one could have seen it coming"

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 11:07 | 5097643 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

That asshole knows it is coming, if he doesn't he's a fucking moronic asshole.

They will all cry, " no one could have seen it coming" so they can keep their jobs robbing the people blind on the way down and the way back up.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 11:35 | 5097846 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

Technically he is right, we aren't in a recession. We are in a world wide depression ....
Recession, we should be so lucky.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:14 | 5096826 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

It doesn't feeel like we are in a recession, so these numbers must be wrong.

I gotta get one of these economist jobs

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:20 | 5096862 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

As for me, I don't feel fat and old, so I must have a pretty good shot with those hotties at the bar. I'll let you know how that works out.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:29 | 5096918 813kml
813kml's picture

That's the spirit, in the new normal everyone is a perfect 10.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:16 | 5096832 SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

American immitation, such an HONOR. s/

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:15 | 5096835 danpos
danpos's picture

How hard is it for them to just release positive numbers the first time?  C'mon guys.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:17 | 5096839 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

"In other words, Canada mysterioualy had a swing of over 67K self-employed jobs in the month."

 

I see, pan handling is now considered self-employed. I wonder how mach the GDP data will be revised now.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:29 | 5096913 813kml
813kml's picture

I imagine panhandling is a very seasonal job in the Great White North.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:59 | 5097136 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

So is working as a fisherman for 10 weeks, and then enjoying 42 weeks of unemployment.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 11:08 | 5097653 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Those days are mostly gone... because there are no fish.

How'd that happen...?

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 12:13 | 5098096 sixsigma cygnus...
sixsigma cygnusatratus's picture

Chocolate rations were also increased from 30 grams to 25 grams per week.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:18 | 5096842 RacerX
RacerX's picture

Just another day in bizarro-world.. Eh?

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:18 | 5096850 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

 

O fascist pricks,

we stand on guard for thee

 

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:20 | 5096851 Dubaibanker
Dubaibanker's picture

Jobs or no jobs, Canada has had a 7% approx unemployment rate for the longest time.

Canada's saving grace is the 250k approx new immigrants that are allowed to enter Canada every year for the past 10-20 years. This keeps the population growing and brings new money, aside from foreigners buying the real estate that tempers any massive declines or volatility. Banks have dramatically expanded into the US and for the first time ever have more branches in US than in Canada for TD etc. BMO and RBC are also very large in US than they were 10 years ago.

Canada also has a low foreign debt. Even debt securitization is controlled and taxes have infact been cut in order to improve Canada's competitiveness over the past decade. 

I don't believe, a dramatic real estate crash like the US or Spain can occur, so let us hope for the best, despite CMHC and others warning of a slowdown or a correction.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?list=UUngq92xrmmsfEgGdfAJ6giQ&v=clXaUhFTus8

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:56 | 5097102 Latina Lover
Latina Lover's picture

Did you include the millions of canadians living permanently on social assistance or welfare? Notice they are not considered unemployed by the Canadian Government. Also, you might want to include provincial debts when calculating Canadas foreign debt.  In spite of his nationality, I did permit myself to have a Canadian friend once who explained that the purpose of Canada is to transfer money from the english canucks to the French.  Personally, I think this is good social policy since the french girls are much better looking than the pasty, hairy legged fat feminist english gals.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:18 | 5096853 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

The cons probably threatened somebody's child.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:19 | 5096858 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

pick a number, any number, for god's sake

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:20 | 5096863 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Just keep your eyes on my swinging watch

Its a recovery, a recovery, a recovery

(waving fingers in front of your eyes) 

A recovery , a recovery, a recovery

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:19 | 5096864 tuttisaluti
tuttisaluti's picture

tyler, what happen to the us net tic flow   minus 153,5 B

 

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:21 | 5096872 pauhana
pauhana's picture

Pick a number - any number  .  .  .  . 

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:27 | 5096897 general ambivalent
general ambivalent's picture

Haha, John Baird's such an asshole. He must have had Mike Duffy importing cocaine with his Colombian mistress. Lots of jobs there, I guess.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:27 | 5096907 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The laughable part will be 'Canada's bulletproof banks' balance sheets when housing slides there. Housing is outrageously overvalued there. Their fall will make the US housing price drop look quite small.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:46 | 5097014 The Shape
The Shape's picture

I dunno how much pain the banks will be in. They palm all their dogshit mortgages off to be insured by the government.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:52 | 5097078 SumTing Wong
SumTing Wong's picture

So how do we get to short the paper or take CDS on it? Come on, we can help the economy by making fiat off the stupidity of others. Then we can exchange it for money when several of the people need fiat to pay something off. 

Yes, we can short the banks on the TSX, but there has to be a way to make more fiatscos than that.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 13:53 | 5098674 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

In speaking with various Canadians, I've noticed that some of them get it, and some of them don't...just like in the US.  Among those who don't, some get very defensive if you challenge their preconceptions...just like in the US. 

Can't Happen Here by Rainbow:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0El3Dqk0wfU

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 09:30 | 5101650 Martian Moon
Martian Moon's picture

Had a Canadian banker tell me this week that they no longer lend on equity

I did a double take

He then said all big Canadian banks had agreed to this new policy about 2 years ago at a confab in Basel

Is there some BIS policy I never of?

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:28 | 5096910 Herdee
Herdee's picture

Prime Minister Stephen Harper who is educated as a Keynesian two-bit BA economy student from Calgary,drastically cut the budget for the Government Department called Statistics Canada.This data is extremely important for numerous reasons.If you want data that has accuracy to it,don't look for it from Departments that have been gutted.Even former employees and economists spoke out against the cutbacks.Harper,after spending unknown amounts in the tens of billions(maybe even more) on the war in Afghanistan has been doing everything to try to keep his promise of a balanced budget before the next election.Trouble is,the Government passed a special law under National Security to hide and fudge the amounts spent in Afgan-Land so taxpayers won't find out about all the money they blew helping the American Empire out in a dead end war against a stupid cannabis plant.They tell the general public the true enemy are a bunch of guys living in caves that were responsible for 911.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:38 | 5096916 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

"Fixed" never gets old.

Dare I say the Central Bankers look as if they are now gearing up a deflation case to "Justify" and ramp up MOAR Ponzi free money Economics.

Metals Oil Natgas Grains ..... "Just look at the deflation", clearly MOar Liquidity is needed.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 10:42 | 5097433 StandardDeviant
StandardDeviant's picture

The sad part is that Harper was, for five years (1997-2002), the leader of the National Citizens' Coalition, one of the few organizations in Canada which promotes free markets, laissez-faire policies, smaller government, and so on.  I was delighted to see him elected as Prime Minister.

But the results, while probably not as bad as what would undoubtedly have happened had the Liberals gotten in (or worse), have been disappointing, to put it mildly.  The NCC's slogan, "More freedom through less government", seems to have been entirely forgotten, particularly when it comes to participation in big-government abuses such as Five Eyes.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 11:14 | 5097701 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Harper is, and always was a fascist pig.  The libertarian 'leanings' were theatre.

the only time Canada had a "decent" government is when it was under minority government because the slimeballs didn't have a free run of the place.  Imho all government should be "minority" government so that they can't play at (or actually become) dictatorship.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:36 | 5096960 skbull44
skbull44's picture

Lies, damned lies, and statistics. -Mark Twain

http://olduvai.ca

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:56 | 5097104 SumTing Wong
SumTing Wong's picture

Actually it was Disraeli.

My favorite...

Some individuals use statistics as a drunk man uses lamp-posts — for support rather than for illumination.

Variously attributed to Lang or Housmann.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:36 | 5096964 homebody
homebody's picture

At least there is still one job that we Canadians can adjust for real - that of Prime Minister.  If he/she looses a house vote on a major bill (finacial bill) the Prime Minister must step down and an election is called.  I believe this is the rule in a nut shell but I stand to be corrected on some details.  Don't you wish this was the policy in the USSA. 

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:38 | 5096984 steelrules
steelrules's picture

It's called a non-confidence motion / vote.

http://canadaonline.about.com/cs/parliament/g/nonconfidence.htm

 

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 11:15 | 5097713 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

And it never happens in a majority government situation (unless the party falls to shit with infighting).

 

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:36 | 5096966 steelrules
steelrules's picture

This just shows the government is in the back pocket of the banks, no different than south of the 49th.

 

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:40 | 5096988 The Shape
The Shape's picture

I'm all for fake stats if this is what leads to them jacking rates and blowing up their ridiculous housing market. And you're next Australia.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 10:44 | 5097453 StandardDeviant
StandardDeviant's picture

Yes, please.  Let's start with Vancouver, shall we?

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:48 | 5097033 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Canada? Oh ya, I forgot aboot them. What the hell has been going on up there for the last 5 years?

 

Canadians are so easy to bug.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:59 | 5097135 SumTing Wong
SumTing Wong's picture

"We love Canada...it's America Jr." -Homer J. Simpson

Canada, the tophat on the USA.

Or when I was up there when the rate was 70 cents CAD to the USD, someone reported there were 50,000 people at an event, to which  I said...oh, the equivalent of about 35K Americans.

Yes, I deserve to be downvoted for each of these. And my Canadian friends give me a lot of shit about the stupidity here in America. I'm more likely to make fun of the fat asses in Wal-Mart than Canadians in general...Canadians are wonderful people, even if they do watch too much ice hockey.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 11:17 | 5097727 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Funny 'cause its true.

The 35k Americans comment got a belly snort. 

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 12:45 | 5098262 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Good post but it's actually 70 US cents to the Canadian dollar. As low as 63 cents and as high as 110 cents. Now it's 92 US cents to buy one Canuck loonie.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:51 | 5097067 SilverRoofer
SilverRoofer's picture

Looks like canada could use some cheap south american labor.us should send all illeagals north

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 09:58 | 5097120 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

bullshit deluxe

 

ONWARD!!!!!!!!!!!!

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 10:02 | 5097144 homebody
homebody's picture

5 years?  Have we been trying to deliver oil to the US by pipeline that long?  We must be far more radical than your curent suppliers.  If Keystone is such a risk - perhaps the pipeline can be built with a double wall - I can not see this as a major cost increase compared to the route accquision and the political costs for gaining approval.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 10:11 | 5097222 22winmag
22winmag's picture

Canada = America

 

The people who want to get Quebec the fuck out of Canada have the right idea.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 10:14 | 5097248 Smiley
Smiley's picture

Bullish:  Rainbows and Unicorns.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 10:44 | 5097444 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

No one graduating in Canada these days will ever do math again. Really they would rather die than add numbers. Cash registers tell them the change to make and since the Govt removed the penny from circulation the smallest digit now is 5, what to do with 3s now? Imagine the panic when young office workers are told add the hires and subtract the quits and fired workers. Theres is no APP for that.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 11:10 | 5097668 chinaboy
chinaboy's picture

lie (garbage) in, lie (garbage) out.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 11:18 | 5097732 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

If you like your old statistics you can keep your old statistics.

Who cares, they're all bullshit anyway.

 

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 11:41 | 5097895 SMC
SMC's picture

Yet another imaginary "victory" of optics over substance. ROFL.

The will have to conjure more imaginary wealth to provide imaginary substance to their imaginary claims.

Fri, 08/15/2014 - 18:45 | 5100088 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

I was talking to the Economist that the Harper Government uses to shill on Stats CAN fudged numbers and he told me he thought that one of Stats Can's statisticians went rouge and that's why the numbers were so low. Today I heard the same Economist on talk radio saying

exactly what the Harper Government wanted him to say and there was no mention of the 'rouge' statistician. They make shit up as they go along and all the negative comments about CANADA here on Z/H are essentially true. Our Equilibrium Economists are just as shitty as the American Equilibrium Economists without a doubt. Clearly, we are fucked just as the Yanks are fucked. The shilling for dollars is out-of-hand and getting worse by the week now.

Sat, 08/16/2014 - 09:38 | 5101660 Martian Moon
Martian Moon's picture

this news is double good

Sun, 08/17/2014 - 20:41 | 5106636 SweetDoug
SweetDoug's picture

'

'

'

And nobody thought to check this alarming number before it came out?!

 

And nobody was fired after it was fixed?!

 

That's because it was the right number the first time.

 

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