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All Eyes On Jackson Hole: Key Events In The Coming Week

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Looking at the week ahead, in Europe the focus will likely be on the flash August PMI readings. The readings for the Euro area, Germany and France are due on Thursday.  Markets are expecting a modest 0.4pt decline for the Euro area composite PMI but we suspect plenty of focus will be on the flash manufacturing PMI reading for Germany given the softening data momentum over there. The other notable European releases this week also include the Euroarea trade balance today, UK inflation tomorrow, and German PPI on Wednesday. In the US, we will get the NAHB housing market index today, July CPI and housing permits/starts on Tuesday and the Philly Fed survey on Thursday. We will also get the latest FOMC and BoE's meeting minutes on Wednesday. In Asia, the focus will be on China's HSBC flash manufacturing PMI for August on Thursday. Still, all eyes (and minds) will be on Jackson Hole this week.

However, the main event of the week will be Yellen's long awaited speech at the Jackson Hole 3-day symposium taking place August 21-23. The theme of this year's symposium is entitled "Re-Evaluating Labour Market Dynamics" and Yellen is expected to deliver her keynote address on Friday morning US time. Consensus is that she will likely highlight that the alternative measures of labour market slack in evaluating the ongoing significant under-utilisation of labour resources (eg, duration of employment, quit rate in JOLTS data) have yet to normalise relative to 2002-2007 levels. Any sound bite that touches on the debate of cyclical versus structural drivers of labour force participation will also be closely followed. Unlike some of the previous Jackson Hole symposiums, this is probably not one that will serve as a precursor of any monetary policy changes but the tone of Yellen's speech may still have a market impact and set the mood for busier times ahead in September.

Interestingly Mario Draghi will also be attending this time and is expected to deliver a luncheon speech at 12.30pm local time on the same day. Other participants at the symposium also include BoJ’s Governor Mr. Kuroda, Central Bank of Brazil’s Governor Mr. Tombini and BoE’s Deputy Governor Mr. Broadbent.

Summary of the key events:

A detailed breakdown of the week's events from Goldman:

Monday, August 18

  • Events: Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey, Speech by Spain’s Deputy Trade Minister Garcia-Legas.
  • United States | [MAP 1] NAHB Housing Market Index (Aug): Consensus 53, previous 53
  • Thailand | GDP YoY (2Q): GS -0.70%, consensus 0.30% (0.80% qoq), previous -0.60% (-2.10% qoq)
  • Nigeria | CPI YoY (Jul): GS 8.40%, consensus 8.40%, previous 8.20%
  • Ukraine | Industrial Production MoM (Jul): Previous -1.50% (-5.00% yoy)
  • Chile | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (2Q): GS 1.80% (0.00% qoq), consensus 1.85%, previous 2.60% (0.70% qoq)
  • Also interesting: [DM] Euro area Trade Balance; UK Rightmove House Prices; Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales; Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports
  • [EM] China Property Prices; Hong Kong Unemployment; Czech Republic PPI and Export and Import Price Indexes; Ukraine Retail Trade; Brazil Trade Balance; Chile CA.

Tuesday, August 19

  • Events: Portugal IP Report and Monthly Economic Survey; US Congressional Primaries in Alaska and Wyoming.
  • United States | CPI MoM (Jul): GS 0.10%, consensus 0.10% (2.00% yoy), previous 0.30% (2.10% yoy)
  • United States | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Jul): GS 0.12%, consensus 0.20% (1.90% yoy), previous 0.10% (1.90% yoy)
  • United States | Housing Starts MoM (Jul): GS 6.00%, consensus 8.60%, previous -9.30%
  • United Kingdom | CPI MoM (Jul): Consensus -0.20% (1.70% yoy), previous 0.20% (1.90%)
  • Australia | Minutes from MP Decision
  • Israel | Manufacturing Production MoM (Jun): Previous 1.40%
  • Also interesting: [DM] US Building Permits; Euro area CA; UK PPI, ONS House Prices and Retail Price Index; Japan Leading and Coincident Indexes, Department Store Sales and Machine Tool Orders; Australia Roy Morgan Consumer Sentiment; New Zealand PPI [EM] Hong Kong Composite Interest Rate; Philippines Balance of Payments and Change in Net Reserves; South Korea PPI; Israel Manufacturing Production; Poland Employment and Average Gross Wages; Russia Unemployment, Real Wages, Retail Sales and Investment Statistics; Argentina Unemployment; Colombia Trade Balance.

Wednesday, August 20

  • Events: RBA’s Stevens appears before House of Representatives Economics Committee.
  • United States | Minutes from MP Decision
  • United Kingdom | Minutes from MP Decision
  • Japan | Trade Balance (Jul): GS - ¥619.3, consensus - ¥719.1B, previous (r) -¥823.2B
  • Japan | All Industry Activity Index MoM (Jun): Consensus -0.40%, previous 0.60%
  • Malaysia | CPI YoY (Jul): Consensus 3.30%, previous 3.30%
  • Poland | [MAP 3] Sold Industrial Output YoY (Jul): GS 2.00%, consensus 2.00% (1.70% mom), previous 1.70% (-0.10% mom)
  • South Africa | CPI YoY (Jul): GS 6.40%, consensus 6.30%, previous 6.60% (0.30% mom)
  • Argentina | [MAP 5] Economic Activity Index YoY (Jun): GS 0.30% (0.70% mom), previous -0.20% (0.50% mom)
  • Brazil | IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 MoM (Aug): GS 0.15% (6.50% yoy), previous 0.17% (6.51% yoy)
  • Also interesting: [DM] US MBA Mortgage Applications; Canada Wholesale Trade Sales; Euro area Construction Output; Germany PPI; UK CBI Trends Total Orders; Japan Trade Balance; Australia Westpac Leading Index; New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Auction; Singapore Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A [EM] Taiwan CA and Export Orders; Poland PPI.

Thursday, August 21

  • Events: Jackson Hole economic symposium in Wyoming ("Re-evaluating Labor Market Dynamics") begins (US Daily, “Jackson Hole Preview”); schedule expected to be posted on the conference website at 8:00PM ET.
  • United States | [MAP 4] Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Aug): GS 18.0, consensus 19.8, previous 23.9
  • United States | [MAP 2] Existing Home Sales (Jul): Consensus 5.00M, previous 5.04M
  • Euro area | [MAP 4] Consumer Confidence (Aug A): Consensus -9.4, previous -8.4
  • Norway | GDP QoQ (2Q): Previous 0.30%
  • DM | Composite PMI (Aug P): Euro area (consensus 53.4, previous 53.8), France(previous 49.4), Germany (previous 55.7)
  • DM | Manufacturing PMI (Aug P): US (consensus 55.7, previous 55.8), Euro area (consensus 51, previous 51.8), France (consensus 47.7, previous 47.8), Germany (consensus 51.5, previous 52.4), Japan (previous 50.5)
  • DM | Services PMI (Aug P): Euro area (consensus 53.9, previous 54.2), France (50.5, previous 50.4), Germany (consensus 55.5, previous 56.7)
  • China | HSBC China Manufacturing PMI (Aug P): Consensus 51.6, previous 51.7
  • Hong Kong | CPI Composite YoY (Jul): Consensus 3.60%, previous 3.60%
  • Poland | Minutes from MP Decision: We see some risk the MPC could cut rates in 4Q2014 or early 2015 if downside growth risks materialize and the inflation forecast remains stubbornly low. And even if the MPC does not cut rates, there is a risk of a longer period of unchanged rates. This should keep the front end of the yield curve well anchored, while some sell-off in bonds on lower risk appetite could also add to the steepness of the PLN curve. At the same time, higher risk aversion and some risk of rate cuts could lead to a moderate PLN weakening, reversing the gains fueled by the MPC's reluctance to cut rates.
  • Mexico | [MAP 5] Economic Activity IGAE YoY (Jun): Consensus 2.65%, previous 1.41%
  • Mexico | [MAP 5] GDP NSA YoY (2Q): GS 1.60%, consensus 1.50%, previous 1.80% (0.30% yoy)
  • Also interesting: [DM] US Initial Jobless and Continuing Claims and Leading Index; Denmark Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales; Sweden Unemployment; Switzerland Trade Balance; UK Retail Sales, Public Finances, and Public Sector Net Borrowing; Japan Buying Foreign Bonds and Stocks; Australia Conf. Board Leading Index; New Zealand Job Advertisements; Consumer Confidence and Credit Card Spending [EM] Argentina Consumer Confidence; Brazil Unemployment.

Friday, August 22

  • Events: Expected (not officially confirmed) speech by Fed Chair Yellen at Jackson Hole economic symposium.
  • Canada | CPI NSA MoM (Jul): Previous 0.10% (2.49% yoy)
  • Also interesting: [DM] Canada Retail Sales [EM] Malaysia Foreign Reserves; Philippines Overseas Remittances; Taiwan Unemployment; Argentina Trade Balance; Brazil Foreign Direct Investment, CA and Bi-Weekly CPI; Mexico Unemployment; Chile PPI

Source: Deutsche, BofA, Goldman

 

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Mon, 08/18/2014 - 08:12 | 5107982 PR Guy
PR Guy's picture

 

 

Whose hole did you say we have to keep an eye on? This lady sure seems to be worried about holes.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LT0_FzwKvD8

 

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 08:12 | 5107991 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Send in the IMF to pull the puppet strings.

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 08:37 | 5108060 Arius
Arius's picture

lately it seems if you bet against what ZH is forecasting you might win ... it was rather different before....

 

be careful when they say nothing to excpect ... just sayin'

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 09:09 | 5108181 philipat
philipat's picture

Jackson Hole. Ass Holes. Yada Yada Yada. It's all total BS.

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 08:18 | 5108008 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

You would see more truth, honesty and integrity keeping your eyes on Sam Jackson's Hole.

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 08:13 | 5107989 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The economic/financial bread and circus train is moving to Jackson Hole this week. Follow along dear children. As long as we remain mesmerized by the money meme its power over us is complete.

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 08:13 | 5107992 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Another round of stimulus?  Sure, I will agree to this if these criminals agree to stop suppressing interest rates.

Deal?

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 08:13 | 5107994 DavidC
DavidC's picture

And, presumably, completely unrelated that the NASDAQ is back nudging all time highs.

What's keeping S&P and Dow from all time highs? (sarc off)

DavidC

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 08:20 | 5108010 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Vampires don't put blood back into their victims.  Any discussion of the labor market or economy by bankers amounts to a panic over where the next meal is coming from.

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 08:20 | 5108012 aleph0
aleph0's picture

Hopefully the day will come when there are NO FED MEETINGs.

Ridiculous Banking Cartel Dog & Pony Show that keeps the likes of CNBS in business.

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 08:24 | 5108022 Bioscale
Bioscale's picture

I bet there is going to come ..... more money printing! Belgium is already expecting more $$$ billions in US gov debt to buy.

I wonder what  else  the bankster fucks have to discuss..

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 08:31 | 5108041 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

I can't watch that disgusting, lying Ponzi Munchkin.

I'll wait to read her lies.

What has the Fed done for the average guy?  Fuck all.

Great times for corporations like Cisco, who borrow at near zero interest and buy back their own stock thereby inflating share prices.  Yet Cisco lays off 8% of their workforce.  Nice one, Janet.

And savers who don't want to put their hard-earned money into the Wall Street casino are rewarded with .1% interest.  Nice one, Janet.

This Keynesian $4.5 Trillion failed experiment will have to be bailed out by the taxpayers, eventually.

Death to all banksters.

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 08:34 | 5108056 Bioscale
Bioscale's picture

The savers who don't play wallstreet buy gold, unless they have been brainwashed. But there aren't many left, the debt is the king and the keynesians/banksters know that.

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 08:52 | 5108107 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The problem is that the real cost of maintaining all those keynesian programs, like the debt, has been and is increasing exponentially. (yes eventually real food and fuel has to be delivered and that has a real cost)

they also know this and this is why some banksters have slipped lately and gotten a bit too "truthy".

Let me be clear;  there is no political, fiscal, economic or monetary solution to resource scarcity.  never has been and never will be.

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 09:08 | 5108179 Eeyores Enigma
Eeyores Enigma's picture

Janet's or latoya's?

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 09:41 | 5108310 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"Jackson Hole".  Sounds either naughty or racist.

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 10:38 | 5108598 boattrash
boattrash's picture

Might we get lucky? Will any of the eyes be peering through fine optics, mounted atop a .50 Cal?

Bankster Eradication Task Force, where are you?

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 10:58 | 5108701 boattrash
boattrash's picture

My apologies to the fine people here at ZH, it seems Central Banksters energize some of my darkest thoughts.

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 10:56 | 5108685 q99x2
q99x2's picture

All eyes are on Janet Yellen as she goes up my FAFSA.

Mon, 08/18/2014 - 11:08 | 5108733 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Jackson Hole is beautiful enough to match the unrealistic blathering of a bunch of people crippled by group think.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!