Looking at the week ahead, in Europe the focus will likely be on the flash August PMI readings. The readings for the Euro area, Germany and France are due on Thursday. Markets are expecting a modest 0.4pt decline for the Euro area composite PMI but we suspect plenty of focus will be on the flash manufacturing PMI reading for Germany given the softening data momentum over there. The other notable European releases this week also include the Euroarea trade balance today, UK inflation tomorrow, and German PPI on Wednesday. In the US, we will get the NAHB housing market index today, July CPI and housing permits/starts on Tuesday and the Philly Fed survey on Thursday. We will also get the latest FOMC and BoE's meeting minutes on Wednesday. In Asia, the focus will be on China's HSBC flash manufacturing PMI for August on Thursday. Still, all eyes (and minds) will be on Jackson Hole this week.
However, the main event of the week will be Yellen's long awaited speech at the Jackson Hole 3-day symposium taking place August 21-23. The theme of this year's symposium is entitled "Re-Evaluating Labour Market Dynamics" and Yellen is expected to deliver her keynote address on Friday morning US time. Consensus is that she will likely highlight that the alternative measures of labour market slack in evaluating the ongoing significant under-utilisation of labour resources (eg, duration of employment, quit rate in JOLTS data) have yet to normalise relative to 2002-2007 levels. Any sound bite that touches on the debate of cyclical versus structural drivers of labour force participation will also be closely followed. Unlike some of the previous Jackson Hole symposiums, this is probably not one that will serve as a precursor of any monetary policy changes but the tone of Yellen's speech may still have a market impact and set the mood for busier times ahead in September.
Interestingly Mario Draghi will also be attending this time and is expected to deliver a luncheon speech at 12.30pm local time on the same day. Other participants at the symposium also include BoJ’s Governor Mr. Kuroda, Central Bank of Brazil’s Governor Mr. Tombini and BoE’s Deputy Governor Mr. Broadbent.
Summary of the key events:
A detailed breakdown of the week's events from Goldman:
Monday, August 18
- Events: Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey, Speech by Spain’s Deputy Trade Minister Garcia-Legas.
- United States | [MAP 1] NAHB Housing Market Index (Aug): Consensus 53, previous 53
- Thailand | GDP YoY (2Q): GS -0.70%, consensus 0.30% (0.80% qoq), previous -0.60% (-2.10% qoq)
- Nigeria | CPI YoY (Jul): GS 8.40%, consensus 8.40%, previous 8.20%
- Ukraine | Industrial Production MoM (Jul): Previous -1.50% (-5.00% yoy)
- Chile | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (2Q): GS 1.80% (0.00% qoq), consensus 1.85%, previous 2.60% (0.70% qoq)
- Also interesting: [DM] Euro area Trade Balance; UK Rightmove House Prices; Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales; Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports
- [EM] China Property Prices; Hong Kong Unemployment; Czech Republic PPI and Export and Import Price Indexes; Ukraine Retail Trade; Brazil Trade Balance; Chile CA.
Tuesday, August 19
- Events: Portugal IP Report and Monthly Economic Survey; US Congressional Primaries in Alaska and Wyoming.
- United States | CPI MoM (Jul): GS 0.10%, consensus 0.10% (2.00% yoy), previous 0.30% (2.10% yoy)
- United States | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Jul): GS 0.12%, consensus 0.20% (1.90% yoy), previous 0.10% (1.90% yoy)
- United States | Housing Starts MoM (Jul): GS 6.00%, consensus 8.60%, previous -9.30%
- United Kingdom | CPI MoM (Jul): Consensus -0.20% (1.70% yoy), previous 0.20% (1.90%)
- Australia | Minutes from MP Decision
- Israel | Manufacturing Production MoM (Jun): Previous 1.40%
- Also interesting: [DM] US Building Permits; Euro area CA; UK PPI, ONS House Prices and Retail Price Index; Japan Leading and Coincident Indexes, Department Store Sales and Machine Tool Orders; Australia Roy Morgan Consumer Sentiment; New Zealand PPI [EM] Hong Kong Composite Interest Rate; Philippines Balance of Payments and Change in Net Reserves; South Korea PPI; Israel Manufacturing Production; Poland Employment and Average Gross Wages; Russia Unemployment, Real Wages, Retail Sales and Investment Statistics; Argentina Unemployment; Colombia Trade Balance.
Wednesday, August 20
- Events: RBA’s Stevens appears before House of Representatives Economics Committee.
- United States | Minutes from MP Decision
- United Kingdom | Minutes from MP Decision
- Japan | Trade Balance (Jul): GS - ¥619.3, consensus - ¥719.1B, previous (r) -¥823.2B
- Japan | All Industry Activity Index MoM (Jun): Consensus -0.40%, previous 0.60%
- Malaysia | CPI YoY (Jul): Consensus 3.30%, previous 3.30%
- Poland | [MAP 3] Sold Industrial Output YoY (Jul): GS 2.00%, consensus 2.00% (1.70% mom), previous 1.70% (-0.10% mom)
- South Africa | CPI YoY (Jul): GS 6.40%, consensus 6.30%, previous 6.60% (0.30% mom)
- Argentina | [MAP 5] Economic Activity Index YoY (Jun): GS 0.30% (0.70% mom), previous -0.20% (0.50% mom)
- Brazil | IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 MoM (Aug): GS 0.15% (6.50% yoy), previous 0.17% (6.51% yoy)
- Also interesting: [DM] US MBA Mortgage Applications; Canada Wholesale Trade Sales; Euro area Construction Output; Germany PPI; UK CBI Trends Total Orders; Japan Trade Balance; Australia Westpac Leading Index; New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Auction; Singapore Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A [EM] Taiwan CA and Export Orders; Poland PPI.
Thursday, August 21
- Events: Jackson Hole economic symposium in Wyoming ("Re-evaluating Labor Market Dynamics") begins (US Daily, “Jackson Hole Preview”); schedule expected to be posted on the conference website at 8:00PM ET.
- United States | [MAP 4] Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Aug): GS 18.0, consensus 19.8, previous 23.9
- United States | [MAP 2] Existing Home Sales (Jul): Consensus 5.00M, previous 5.04M
- Euro area | [MAP 4] Consumer Confidence (Aug A): Consensus -9.4, previous -8.4
- Norway | GDP QoQ (2Q): Previous 0.30%
- DM | Composite PMI (Aug P): Euro area (consensus 53.4, previous 53.8), France(previous 49.4), Germany (previous 55.7)
- DM | Manufacturing PMI (Aug P): US (consensus 55.7, previous 55.8), Euro area (consensus 51, previous 51.8), France (consensus 47.7, previous 47.8), Germany (consensus 51.5, previous 52.4), Japan (previous 50.5)
- DM | Services PMI (Aug P): Euro area (consensus 53.9, previous 54.2), France (50.5, previous 50.4), Germany (consensus 55.5, previous 56.7)
- China | HSBC China Manufacturing PMI (Aug P): Consensus 51.6, previous 51.7
- Hong Kong | CPI Composite YoY (Jul): Consensus 3.60%, previous 3.60%
- Poland | Minutes from MP Decision: We see some risk the MPC could cut rates in 4Q2014 or early 2015 if downside growth risks materialize and the inflation forecast remains stubbornly low. And even if the MPC does not cut rates, there is a risk of a longer period of unchanged rates. This should keep the front end of the yield curve well anchored, while some sell-off in bonds on lower risk appetite could also add to the steepness of the PLN curve. At the same time, higher risk aversion and some risk of rate cuts could lead to a moderate PLN weakening, reversing the gains fueled by the MPC's reluctance to cut rates.
- Mexico | [MAP 5] Economic Activity IGAE YoY (Jun): Consensus 2.65%, previous 1.41%
- Mexico | [MAP 5] GDP NSA YoY (2Q): GS 1.60%, consensus 1.50%, previous 1.80% (0.30% yoy)
- Also interesting: [DM] US Initial Jobless and Continuing Claims and Leading Index; Denmark Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales; Sweden Unemployment; Switzerland Trade Balance; UK Retail Sales, Public Finances, and Public Sector Net Borrowing; Japan Buying Foreign Bonds and Stocks; Australia Conf. Board Leading Index; New Zealand Job Advertisements; Consumer Confidence and Credit Card Spending [EM] Argentina Consumer Confidence; Brazil Unemployment.
Friday, August 22
- Events: Expected (not officially confirmed) speech by Fed Chair Yellen at Jackson Hole economic symposium.
- Canada | CPI NSA MoM (Jul): Previous 0.10% (2.49% yoy)
- Also interesting: [DM] Canada Retail Sales [EM] Malaysia Foreign Reserves; Philippines Overseas Remittances; Taiwan Unemployment; Argentina Trade Balance; Brazil Foreign Direct Investment, CA and Bi-Weekly CPI; Mexico Unemployment; Chile PPI
Source: Deutsche, BofA, Goldman