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Homebuilder Sentiment Jumps to Highest Since January As Midwest Hits Record High
Despite almost record-low mortgage apps and plunging sales, homebuilders remain as optimistic as ever that no matter what is ahead - stagnant wages, rising rates, or FNMA's outlook deteriorating - everything will be fine in housing.NAHB sentiment printed 55, beating 53 expectations on the back of an explosion of hope in the Midwest to record highs (as South and West tumbled). The 'outlook' - the real hope - surged to its highest in a year - just short of this cycle's highs in hope.
Yep makes sense...
Perfect sense...
And The Midwest sentiment has now hit a record high...
Charts: Bloomberg
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there's a trade in there somewhere. wow.
It was the Midwest's turn to be sentimentally hopeful.
What a fucking kool-aid convention.
People are still building things? I thought that shit only happened in China?
I'm seeing a lot of house starts down here in S Florida.
With so much land up for sale, and not moving, it looks like the builders are
throwing the dice and praying.
Here in California, house prices (courtesy Obama and his Fed) are back up in bubble territory.
How does a young family afford a typical "starter home" for $375,000?
A good chunk of house purchasers are Investment Funds and wealthy Chinese (in China) trying to get funds out of China.
They pay top dollar, cash, and convert into rentals.
Rents high too.
Lumber mills here all seem to be going full tilt. Someone is buying it all.
Of course the homebuilders are ecstatic in the midwest....you see all the potential re-development coming in Missouri??
Talking their own book,that's all
Dp
Print print print print till you're outta ink!!! Forward!!!
The joke's on you because modern printers don't use ink. They use toner! Haha! FED FOR LIFE BITCHEZ
Your behind, we use bits and bytes now.....
The graph is a perfect representation of our predicament: hope versus reality in an ever growing divergence.
just another meaningless propaganda moron indicator...
wow, the DJIdiotA is up almost 150 points....
on what????
Fuck off.....
They are up on better drugs than we can get. I wonder what the street price of hopium is?
they're just rational : with SP500 at ATH, housing will improve. Any minute now. It must be. Let the countdown begin : 5...4...3...2...1...0 (and let's start counting again, as apparently they've done that for 2 years now...)
The Midwest sentiment is at a record high? I would really like to know where they're building these homes, because There is not much activity going on around here.
Rumors of a large housing develpment project starting up real soon just north of St. Louis. The client is some government agency...FEMI?, FEMU?, FEMO?....something like that. Word is it's going to be big!
Ferguson, MO.
Makes sense.
West Michigan keeps moving. Not a hot pace, but steady.
Where, GR or Kalamazoo?
There's a little activity around Grand Rapids where things were never as bad as on the east side of the state.
Just about every builder in Southeastern Michigan has a house up and an approved site plan for a couple more, but they are all talking to the same buyer.
They'll all tell you "it's getting better" but there's a always forlorn and wistful tone attached to it that causes you to think it's more a mantra than an opinion.
South East Michigan too.
I'm thinking them damn frackers are tired of living in their trucks.
Right in my backyard, Maryland, the land of Federal jobs. In the last year in Gamber, Maryland, I have seen 8 houses with 4 more in progress go up next to my property. They are not going to stop me from shooting the wood chucks that are digging up my lawn.
Having built homes for homebuilders in Indiana for 30+ years, i can tell you that these are some of the most fanatically dedicated kool-aid drinking optimists that God ever put breath into.
They are all salesmen. Do we really expect any salesman to publicly express pessimism? I have never met one. There could be a meteor five miles from earth and they would be telling us "there has never been a better time to buy".
Good, more new homes eventually going to auction. Anything to keep the game going.
When all cash foreigners dry up and hedgearsewholes start unloading rentals look out below. Sooner the better!
This is the area where I feel we can return at least directionally towards something more rational. We all now equities could vaporize within days but when? And how do we know when? They can play footsie with the digits on computers and rig that shit for a long time. Nonetheless, my point being it is more controllable at least for the time being.
Yellen can't create jobs, income, and demand for housing above and beyond the laundering of easy money and the BlackRock type stuff which is exiting stage left. On a national scale real estate could just get absolutely torched it's so far out of whack with reality. Amazing prices have held up for this long.
A great many things need to change, from ZIRP to QE to investor driven tax policy to trade policy and immigration policy, before anything approaching "rational" comes to the housing market and to the US Economy.
Be patient and encourage the home builders to recklessly build and blow billions.
Go to new home sites and get the traffic going.
A year or 2 later when all these builders fold, buy these homes on the cheap in auctions.
Nah, the spoils always go to the bankers. How many are they still sitting on from the last pop? The public only gets the bargain by accident.
Sentiment, sounds like hopium the new special sauce.
Fed balance sheet expanded $21.8 billion last week?
http://bloomberg.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=461008&cust=bloomberg-us&year=2014&lid=0&prev=/byweek.asp#top
What taper???
They should be optimistc
Supply of new homes is low compared to demand
If you have some of that Fed cash and you don't want a moneypit, you'll pay a premium for new construction
Construction has been accelerating; apartments and single family reno's in Charlotte and elsewhere. I think it is due to QE tapering and everyone who didn't get in on the party is looking of that easy money. Let's see what happens after QE ends and the remaining money drains from the pipeline.
developers> grow or die
cancer> grow or die
These homebuilding folks are the biggest kool aid drinkers around....One of my buds grew up in Hutchinson KS. and was back for a visit a week ago for a family get together. Hutch has a diversified economy. Food, Salt, Energy Tech, and Rural Ag. Dillons a Kroger Sub HQ there and a Dillon is CEO and largest shareholder of Kroger all support the town of +42K and it plays bigger as it is regional draw about 50 miles NW of Wichita. Also home to Smithsonian Space Museum worth a visit for that alone. Buddy is a regular Zero Hedge reader and shared the headline of the Hutch paper while he was back. That headline was ONE new home built in 2014 thru end of July. Worst year in history of the town.....
How these guys can remain so optimistic must be chemically enhanced. Its brutal and inspite of the fact that real estate is a major revenue source for local papers even they have recently began to hint at reality....it sucks out there.
I for one welcome my new Chinese overlords. They work harder, complain less and dress better than your average mart-kart riding slob on foodstamps or the abundance of tatted up Mexican gangbanging thugs slangin' crack on the corner.
It's as if desperation breeds extreme optimism. The proper reaction is to treat this like when Jim Cramer screams, "Buy!" on the stock of any given turd of a company.
The other take one could have on this is that someone is trying to manipulate the public.
Kinda like those stats that say home prices are rising!! Yahooo, Right!
And then you learn that it is just the statistics one naturally gets when low and middle-class income folks can no longer afford to buy. (leaving just the high end home sales to pump up the numbers).
Wiki:
Headquartered in Washington, D.C., NAHB's mission is: "to enhance the climate for housing and the building industry".
So, NAHB is a propaganda organization who's job it is to sell the investment community on building stocks/building product stocks.
Climate enhanced! Time to declare Victory!
Ohhhh...I seeee...sentiment has improved! Wow...how exciting!
So are builders actually building more homes? No.
Getting near tangibles time in the cycle again, maybe?
homebuilders got a lot on their side, stockholders stuffed with Congresspersons, unlimited cheap labor, ZIRP, bureaucratically limited competition, they literally surf America's klepto bureaucratic home loan fraud wave to profits, they even limited their liability so they can literally build disposable homes which are designed to disintegrate about 5 years after their liability disintegrates.
Unlimited mass immigration doesn't hurt either.