This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
What Do Stocks Know?
With global GDP expectations plumbing new depths (at 2.48% consensus for 2014)...
...one could understand why it is that 30Y US Treasury yields are at 16-month lows, that Dr.Copper is tumbling, and crude oil prices slumping.
But apart from the fundamentals of global macro strength, what - at almost record highs - does the US equity market know that every other asset class does not...
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 13772 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
stocks believe in inflation
everything else believes in deflation
stocks are wrong
Print baby, print, and print now !!
stocks know that Belgium is always there for them.
WTF? gh0atrider said to buh Bitcoin not sell Bitcoin!!
http://btc-e.com
Stocks know POMO and when the music stops
15 more years of bull market? This headline got to mean something...
https://twitter.com/venigallas/status/501730829476048896/photo/1
Lol Mohan, good spot.
Does the Fed have 15 more years of printing left in it? They've been doing it since 1913.
15 more years of bull market? This headline got to mean something...
https://twitter.com/venigallas/status/501730829476048896/photo/1
Where's the chart of stock market vs. (endless) FED balance sheet? I suspect that will explain what the market knows.
stocks know that Belgium is always there for them.
...and in a closed system with finite resources and 7+ billion people all competing for a better standard of living and all the resources and energy that makes that possible, deflation is a myth.
and in a closed system of $60 trillion of public market capitalization, based on current prices, and 400 central bank and government-related organizations buying $29 trillion in equities over some period of time, for the dividends, to match liabilities (some are govt pension funds), the markets know they have a marginal buyer of last resort on a massive scale...that was the news from ZH back in May or June I think...tick tick tick...maybe that's it, i dunno...if so question will be what do they want after they own everything...what do you call a political system where the governments and large corporations own the means of production, besides "hybrid"
you call that fascism. or national socialism, take your pick. But i agree, that is the direction we are heading in, if we aren't there already. I try to point that out to everyone i hear say that obama is a marxist or a socialist, but i usually just get blank stares in return. You can think fox news and the rest of the republican talking heads for that, rather intentional or not. probably intentianally being dishonest, since both parties are trying to take us in that direction
Subtlety is un-American, as are clarity of thought and language.
We just grunt and spew angrily.
Oligarchy/fascism, "socialism", by definition means that the people/state control the productive capacity and productive assets.
One of the major differences between socialism and fascism is the centrality of class conflict in the first, and its absence in the latter. In that regard, the US is better described as fascist, since we avoid the acknowledgement of class conflict - replacing it, generally, with race conflict instead, or just insisting it doesn't or shouldn't exist.
One could argue that the lack of nationalism (substituted with internationalism) precludes defining the American system as fascist, but that would be a hard argument to win. I think the vision of American national identity is a global one, with American values and culture dominating all others. The fascists of the 20th century sought global, not national dominance, but failed to achieve it.
In the end, we are looking at an evolved form of totalitarianism that shares qualities of earlier totalitarian systems, but isn't exactly the same. For example, soft power wasn't an element of the Nazi strategy, and we learned from that error.
It is absurd not to realize that the Obama regime operatives are communists. The original poster is correct -- it's a hybrid move for now. Marxist-Leninists in the Soviet Union did all sorts of deals with large corporations (e,g. Occidental Petroleum) and the insiders (party members) controlled all enterprise. In a sense, it was just a giant "generic" corporation. Individuals did not own businesses. Small legal businesses did not exist or if they did they were not allowed to grow and lived under a constant threat of changing rules. All boils down to TOTALITARIANISM. To think that Eric Holder, Valerie Jarrett and Obama himself are not Marxists is to totally delude yourselves. Obama, however, craves the good life -- as all members of the "vanguard" of the proletariat do.
I'd also like to add that many large capitalist enterprises understand very well that they continue to exist ONLY with the blessing of the increasingly socialist central government. A government that now uses myriad rules and regulations to extort, control, or punish those which don't pay homage. Others benefit directly by the social changes the socialist central authorities are creating (health care). The term oligarchy hides or smears over some of these distinctions. The larger the corporation the less they have any desire to oppose a growing central authority. They feed off one another -- the central socialist authority can destroy any competitors, so some will have common interests.
We seem to need a term to describe what is going on and I haven't found one that works for me yet. It's almost like communism for the masses and crony capitalism for the connected. In any case, it's the middle class that is being destroyed, a large "proletariat" replacing it along with the protected glass of connected capitalists and "vanguards".
Inverted Totalitarianism works pretty well.
Corporatism.
And Obama and the Clinton's for example are always putting up this facade about how they're broke paupers while enjoying a lavish lifestyle most other people couldn't even comprehend.
Oligarchy/fascism (there are people behind those corporation).
Marxo-capitalo oligarchy. Whatever. It's all about totalitarian control and anti-freedom.
Japan tried to inflate out of its debt, but as they are finding people will abandon the currency if they try and inflate out of their debt.
So they have a choice: allow the currency to be abandoned and hyper-inflate or deflation and kick the can.
"deflation and kick the can" <-- contradiction.
Name one society/currency that collapsed/died because their purchasing power was too strong.
Nobody's "competing" for anything, dude. Because no one's paychecks are rising.
Not sure of the exact number, but close to 3/4s of the world's people live on $2 a day. They won't be chasing after resources, driving the price up, they will do without, which in their case is devastating. http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=LPjzfGChGlE&feature=player_embedded
Exactly, if you are trying to eat or stay warm, you are in fact still "chasing resources".
So, you're saying that once a person doesn't have a paycheck they don't eat or try to stay warm?
Good luck with that.
nikkei would beg to differ
The nikkei is an index, tell me, what's that priced in again.
If deflation is real, name one society/currency that collapsed/died because their pruchasing power was too stong.
Silver is clearly in the deflation camp right now.... All heil the new silver fix.... What a fraud...
Simply difficult to fathom how silver is trading at 19 bucks. Sure appears to be one helluva long term bargain provided there is even a "long-term".
stocks believe in inflation
everything else believes in deflation
stocks are wrong
Except that deflation means debt-service becomes more impossible with the passing of every day. The greatest debt to service is, of course, the US debt. Deflation also means that the deficit gets bigger with each passing day, as tax receipts collapse; this further aggravates debt-service. Deflation is the thing which cannot be allowed.
Inflation is the thing which can be denied, but which is sought after most earnestly.
Absolutely. Under classic deflation, with currency rising in value, how the hell will the government continue to pay its debts and entitlements. It simply cannot. Imagine interest rates rising to even a modicum of historical valuation? What's left of the mortgage market would disappear.
Short again this AM; sold the Dec. ES @1967.5/ which corresponded to the then high of the day Cash; which was 1978, We'll see how this works out.
Stocks don't know anything. Insiders on the other hand...
Want to see what $1B looks like? Look at last week insider selling.
http://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?or=-10&tv=100000&tc=7&o=-transactionValue
FED software applications.
That its a cool color green on that chart..
What do they know? As long as the printing presses are running in Old Yeller's Basement, the shitshow will go on......
In the absence of a mechanism for true price discovery, the answer is nothing.
stocks know if stocks drop more than 3%, the fed will come to the rescue with 100 trillion in QE if needed. must keep the illusion alive (and money pouring up the ladder).
US stocks know Kevin Henry
Stawcks dont know Jiggy, they are just hearding the avg retail investor in to the market before the collapse.
Yup.
They know that Yellen knows there is no way she gets laid at Jack-ass-son Hole with anything but a dove-in.
They know that somehow, despite the taper, the fed has resumed pumping money.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=BASE&s[1][range]=1yr
Yellen is loading up on SPY/QQQ/DIA/IWM
Since the appointment of Yellen
Short-seller Al’s not been gellin’
The evidence seen:
A smashed Bloomberg screen,
His right foot appears to be swellin’
stocks dont know nothin'...
but i know that they hate Silver in New York.....
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
As a policy tool, Stawks know that the BernankenYellenStein has their back (for now). Stawks, and bawnds are the two 'asset' classes that the fed wants currency to flow into.
They know that Mr. Yellen cannot and will not ever let stocks crash ever again.
Stocks are being used as a flight to quality because the bond market game is over. All your old retarded analysis means nothing because we are in a sovereign debt crisis and its only gotten started.
Think Argentina, Ukraine...
& Gold and Silver pummelled yet again
Obama for a third term!
http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy-policy/2014/08/19/construction-boom-h...
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2014/08/19/us-stocks-futures-up-with-...
Everything seems great. What is with all this fear mongering?
It's not what stocks know; it's what investors know. They know that they cannot create wealth so go with faux wealth instead.
"What do stocks know..." ...and when did they know it...8>d
Stawks don't know anything, they're just a means to control the public at this point.
Don't fight the tape. The guy who is large and in charge is telling you to by for a reason.
Stocks know that if you feed a horse peanut butter, it looks like he's talking.
Stocks know two things, buy the dip and/or buy the all time high. Anything other than that is just "noise..."
Stocks are pricing in the decline by declining trading volume. 10500 shares at 7000 is the same as 7000 share at 10500. The stock market hasn't really moved up for the past 2 years. Real GDP has flatlined.
Makes the PPT's job quite a bit easier... levitation of an absent market... ok, got it, but the scheme is still doomed.
Who was the hedgie that put it bluntly... the indexes are rising but individual stocks are falling. That's been my strategy as well and I haven't made a shit load of money. I'm definitely deflating.
The rich individual investors are selling. Joe Sixpack, momentum traders, and some corporations are buying. 1999 revisited.
i've always wanted to track which opinion will lose you more money - Gartman or Zerohedge. I have a feeling the comparison would make Gartman look like Warren Buffett
Add Peter Schiff to the list.
I think Gartman would, sadly, produce the most gains.
The chase for yield, low interest rates, weak labor market, cheap energy and the backing of the FED. What more do you want as stock holder? Risk? What risk?
Do you go to a Casino and ask the "deck hands" what is behind all this "investing" fever?
When folks have captured so much wealth that to decide on responsible uses would be "too much work" then they just throw it into the ring of gambling options and the biggest is the Equity Markets.
Speculative delirium fueled by great big bags of money owned by the 0.01% all around the world is all that holds up these asset prices.
We all know this. We know that this entire financial market is rigged and that the people at the top are writing the rules the rest of us are supposed to think are just "nature". That the price of things such as the pay for labor vs one's returns from investment dividends are arbitrary and stacked in favor of the investor is supposed to be "just how it turned out". Again, we know better.
So isn't it strange that we don't -ever- question if this system is serving humanity well or not?
Conventional knowledge and wisdom no longer apply to the equity and bond markets. Save yourself the trouble of figuring this out and plan for eventual stagflation and a breakup of the country. The market will never show a negative return again and the FED has more options after QE becomes ineffective. BOJ is already buying and holding equity positions to prop their indexes and the FED will soon follow suit to extend this charade.
Conventional knowledge and wisdom no longer apply to the equity and bond markets. Save yourself the trouble of figuring this out and plan for eventual stagflation and a breakup of the country. The market will never show a negative return again and the FED has more options after QE becomes ineffective. BOJ is already buying and holding equity positions to prop their indexes and the FED will soon follow suit to extend this charade.
True, Bad,
It's the Fed's currency all this is priced in. It will be "worth" whatever they say.