Previewing Yellen's Jackon Hole "Gobbledygook": Not One Analyst Thinks Yellen Will Say Anything Remotely Hawkish

Tyler Durden's picture

Ahead of Yellen's Jackson Hole speech tomorrow, the sell-side, hypnotized by 6 years of Fed bubble-inflating generosity, refuses to even consider the possibility that the Fed could possibly pull the punch bowl away, and the absolutely unanimous consensus is that despite yesterday's minutes (or perhaps due to, because as the Chinese Department of Truth has taught us, one must first and foremost baffle with BS), Yellen will go uber-dove. So without further ado, here is what the Penguins expect Yellen's "gobbledygook" will reveal tomorrow, and as a reminder, yesterday Citi warned that there is "tremendous" downside risk if Yellen doesn't go "full-dovish".

From Bloomberg:

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi

  • Fed’s July minutes indicate many on FOMC see possible need to change characterization of labor mkt utilization, economist Chris Rupkey wrote
  • Yellen may address FOMC’s changing views as soon as Friday


  • Yellen to “respond in force” to calls for earlier rate increase, justify keeping current guidance, economist William Lee wrote

Credit Suisse

  • Geopolitical tensions with Russia, fighting in Middle East give Yellen and others excuse to delay “more hawkish rhetoric,” research analysts Dana Saporta, Xiao Cui wrote


  • Yellen to repeat view on “undesirable” slack in labor mkt, economist Kevin Logan wrote
  • She’ll reiterate view even after recent unemployment decline


  • Jackson Hole won’t be “game changer,” economists Ward McCarthy, Thomas Simons wrote
  • Fed will not establish time frame for rates liftoff this week

Market Securities

  • Yellen’s tone should remain dovish this week, strategist Christophe Barraud wrote
  • She’s likely to focus on labor mkt slack, explain how it persists despite falling unemployment rate


  • Yellen likely to emphasize plenty of evidence of slack, even with recent improvements in labor mkts, economist Lewis Alexander wrote
  • Not likely to signal policy change


  • Yellen seen as continuing to “swear up and down” that slack remains in labor mkt to justify “holding policy at emergency stance,” economist Stephen Stanley wrote

Renaissance Macro

  • Yellen to reiterate her “lower for longer” and “significant labor market slack” views, economist Neil Dutta wrote


  • Yellen to give dovish “gobbledygook” on Friday, strategist Guy Haselmann wrote
  • Speech will likely discuss labor mkt slack as justification for “uber-accommodation”

Standard Chartered

  • Yellen to cite large slack in Jackson Hole speech, economist Thomas Costerg wrote
  • No hints of imminent policy action are expected

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Who really cares anymore.....  

nope-1004's picture

No one, except the Fed themselves, because they have no tools left other than healines.  They represent the greater Western banking system as a whole by their complete inept policies and bankrupt measures, just like the member banks themselves, who are 100% insolvent.


walküre's picture

Your complacency is your enemy's best friend..

The gold smashdown is a precursor for the coming print fest 2.0 and with bigger and better printers.



knukles's picture

Sounds like a primo valid reason.

Slave's picture

Tyler said gook. That's rayciss.

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Maybe Yellen is not speak Hawkish because is speaking Yiddish...? Is not language of Rothschild family and agent of (mis)fortune?

walküre's picture

Boris is must be more careful with chosing of language and offend not the peoples of origin from chosen.

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Boris is not fearful of bastard offspring of Rothschild legacy.

SuperRay's picture

What's the correlation between jackson hole and gold smack down? 98%

Before he was bitten on the throat and turned into a bloodsucking financialvampiresquid...

nope-1004's picture

Maybe.  We'll see I guess.

ebworthen's picture

Yep, FED works for the banksters, period.  Headline should read:

"Not One Analyst Thinks Yellen Will Say Anything Remotely Intelligible."

drendebe10's picture

"There ain't nuthin uglier than an old white woman."   Fred Sanford,   Sanford and Son.

RattNRoll's picture

Imagine a Glory Hole and she was on the other end.....

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Is this how you say in English, "fugly"...?

813kml's picture

By the look of things, Yellen would fit in on either side.


A-holes in J-Hole

813kml's picture

While economy circles B(lack)-Hole.

Dumpster Fire's picture

all the worlds a stage

JustObserving's picture

If the Fed raises rates, the high debt in America, Federal, Sate, Corporate and Family will crush the current negative real growth into deep depression territory.

Interest rates will remain low for decades. Or until the dollar collapses.  Bernanke would have charged you $250,000 per hour for that bit of info. Though he would omit the dollar collapse part.

lester1's picture

Crazy how we see this, but the people at the FED does not.

walküre's picture

Poker game. You never show your cards until the end. Fed is bluffing.

Lore's picture

You think Yellen is that intelligent? I think she's just a Company Woman, peddling the bafflegab she's been fed all her life. What's disturbing is how the mainstream market still seems deluded.

crazybob369's picture

Every time I see a picture of her she seems to have that deer-in-the-headlights kind of look. Totally in over her head.

Sages wife's picture

Re: poker game

Remember, if you've been in the game for awhile and you don't know who the mark is,'s you.

himaroid's picture

Old yellen desperately needs you to sell your long tbonds. She will try to headfake them out of you in the morning. If you fall for that crap, I will be buying them from you at the discount. She will then come out with some dovish BS later in the day, and I will be laughing all weekend.

economessed's picture

Janet owns it -- of course she's going to read a highly choreographed script full of happy times in a flowery garden filled with soft bunnies.


Itchy and Scratchy's picture

I think she will say, 'I didn't see it coming!'

Kaiser Sousa's picture


Former CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton, who famously blasted high-frequency traders as "cheetahs" when he was a regulator, has gone to work with a leading high-frequency trading association, the group said Thursday.

The switch is a dramatic example of a regulator becoming a paid consultant for an industry he once criticized—and it says as much about how the high-frequency trading industry is changing its approach as it does about Washington's often-criticized revolving door.

Chilton, who left the CFTC earlier this year, joined the law and lobbying firm of DLA Piper as a senior policy advisor in April. On Thursday, the Modern Markets Initiative announced that Chilton and DLA Piper will work with the association's newly appointed CEO Bill Harts on "regulatory and public policy matters."

Bay of Pigs's picture

Yet another example of a govt "regulator" who should be behind bars for not enforcing existing law.

What a sad sack of shit he turned out to be.

JustObserving's picture

If he had not been a piece of shit to begin with, he would never have been employed by the CFTC.

Similarly, the CIA makes sure that the Justices of the Supreme Court can be blackmailed and controlled.  If you are clean, there is no chance you will be nominated to the Supreme Court.

Welcome to the fascist, police state where criminality and venality are virtues

Dungholio's picture

Fuck me, it looks like they can keep this shit up forever.

Dr. Engali's picture

Not forever, certainly longer than thought possible, but they can't keep it up forever.

fonzannoon's picture

at 37yrs old i'm caught in the middle. i am now rooting for them to keep it up for another 15-20 years. i hope that's not too much to ask.

Quus Ant's picture

Not at all, fonz.  You've layed out the root of the problem.  At all costs- peace in my time. 

JustObserving's picture

With all the wars that the US is engaged in, collapse will come sooner than most think or anticipate.  The US already blew $6000 billion on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan fueled by the false flag 9/11 event.  That compares to the $738 billion (in 2011 dollars) blown on the Vietnam war fueled by the Gulf of Tonkin incident that never happened.

The eternal wars for eternal peace and the more than 900 foreign military bases in more than 130 countries will bankrupt the US much sooner than people anticipate.

Quus Ant's picture

Peace for me.  Some Americans are suffering, but many are not.  The rest of the world?  As Nuland would say- Fuck them.  And so the beat goes on.

Lore's picture

Wow. Talk about being part of the problem.

Quus Ant's picture

ha ha.  Did I really need to say that's not my, personal viewpoint?  Peace to you. Lore. :)

Bay of Pigs's picture

Calm down young man. We have moar than enough cheerleaders to deal with without you joining the chorus.   :)

Dr. Engali's picture

I just turned 51 so 10-15 years sound good to me, after that you youngsters are on your own.

fonzannoon's picture

I have seen too many flomax commercials with those 60 year old guys clanging their water bottles and laughing while they drive the convertable along the coast to go play gold. It's looks pleasant.

Dr. Engali's picture

Sometimes they play golf too.

fonzannoon's picture

Haha my bad! by play gold I meant they were shorting it.

CrimsonAvenger's picture

I have a foot in the "blow it up now camp" and "wait 20 years" camp. The big factor for me is having kids: Either do it now so I can protect them, or do it in 20 years so they will have had some time to grow into self-sufficient adults.

DeadFred's picture

LOL. Fifteen to twenty years! You'll be lucky if you have that many months. At least you'll be young and spry when the zombies start chasing you.

Chief Wonder Bread's picture

-- Not forever, certainly longer than thought possible, but they can't keep it up forever.

Some debt-cancelling event (?) has to occur first.