Previewing Yellen's Jackon Hole "Gobbledygook": Not One Analyst Thinks Yellen Will Say Anything Remotely Hawkish

Tyler Durden's picture


Ahead of Yellen's Jackson Hole speech tomorrow, the sell-side, hypnotized by 6 years of Fed bubble-inflating generosity, refuses to even consider the possibility that the Fed could possibly pull the punch bowl away, and the absolutely unanimous consensus is that despite yesterday's minutes (or perhaps due to, because as the Chinese Department of Truth has taught us, one must first and foremost baffle with BS), Yellen will go uber-dove. So without further ado, here is what the Penguins expect Yellen's "gobbledygook" will reveal tomorrow, and as a reminder, yesterday Citi warned that there is "tremendous" downside risk if Yellen doesn't go "full-dovish".

From Bloomberg:

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi

  • Fed’s July minutes indicate many on FOMC see possible need to change characterization of labor mkt utilization, economist Chris Rupkey wrote
  • Yellen may address FOMC’s changing views as soon as Friday


  • Yellen to “respond in force” to calls for earlier rate increase, justify keeping current guidance, economist William Lee wrote

Credit Suisse

  • Geopolitical tensions with Russia, fighting in Middle East give Yellen and others excuse to delay “more hawkish rhetoric,” research analysts Dana Saporta, Xiao Cui wrote


  • Yellen to repeat view on “undesirable” slack in labor mkt, economist Kevin Logan wrote
  • She’ll reiterate view even after recent unemployment decline


  • Jackson Hole won’t be “game changer,” economists Ward McCarthy, Thomas Simons wrote
  • Fed will not establish time frame for rates liftoff this week

Market Securities

  • Yellen’s tone should remain dovish this week, strategist Christophe Barraud wrote
  • She’s likely to focus on labor mkt slack, explain how it persists despite falling unemployment rate


  • Yellen likely to emphasize plenty of evidence of slack, even with recent improvements in labor mkts, economist Lewis Alexander wrote
  • Not likely to signal policy change


  • Yellen seen as continuing to “swear up and down” that slack remains in labor mkt to justify “holding policy at emergency stance,” economist Stephen Stanley wrote

Renaissance Macro

  • Yellen to reiterate her “lower for longer” and “significant labor market slack” views, economist Neil Dutta wrote


  • Yellen to give dovish “gobbledygook” on Friday, strategist Guy Haselmann wrote
  • Speech will likely discuss labor mkt slack as justification for “uber-accommodation”

Standard Chartered

  • Yellen to cite large slack in Jackson Hole speech, economist Thomas Costerg wrote
  • No hints of imminent policy action are expected
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Thu, 08/21/2014 - 13:58 | 5125825 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Who really cares anymore.....  

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:07 | 5125858 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

No one, except the Fed themselves, because they have no tools left other than healines.  They represent the greater Western banking system as a whole by their complete inept policies and bankrupt measures, just like the member banks themselves, who are 100% insolvent.


Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:08 | 5125877 walküre
walküre's picture

Your complacency is your enemy's best friend..

The gold smashdown is a precursor for the coming print fest 2.0 and with bigger and better printers.



Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:12 | 5125894 knukles
knukles's picture

Sounds like a primo valid reason.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:14 | 5125900 Slave
Slave's picture

Tyler said gook. That's rayciss.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:44 | 5126052 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Maybe Yellen is not speak Hawkish because is speaking Yiddish...? Is not language of Rothschild family and agent of (mis)fortune?

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:12 | 5126214 walküre
walküre's picture

Boris is must be more careful with chosing of language and offend not the peoples of origin from chosen.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:23 | 5126285 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Boris is not fearful of bastard offspring of Rothschild legacy.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:32 | 5126345 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

What's the correlation between jackson hole and gold smack down? 98%

Before he was bitten on the throat and turned into a bloodsucking financialvampiresquid...

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:15 | 5125904 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Maybe.  We'll see I guess.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:34 | 5125997 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yep, FED works for the banksters, period.  Headline should read:

"Not One Analyst Thinks Yellen Will Say Anything Remotely Intelligible."

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:14 | 5125899 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

"There ain't nuthin uglier than an old white woman."   Fred Sanford,   Sanford and Son.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:26 | 5125956 RattNRoll
RattNRoll's picture

Imagine a Glory Hole and she was on the other end.....

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:45 | 5126062 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Is this how you say in English, "fugly"...?

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:20 | 5126235 813kml
813kml's picture

By the look of things, Yellen would fit in on either side.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:38 | 5126017 ArdentArgent
ArdentArgent's picture

Bring out the Yellen Clamp

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 13:58 | 5125829 SHEEPFUKKER

A-holes in J-Hole

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:17 | 5126240 813kml
813kml's picture

While economy circles B(lack)-Hole.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 13:59 | 5125834 Dumpster Fire
Dumpster Fire's picture

all the worlds a stage

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:03 | 5125842 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

If the Fed raises rates, the high debt in America, Federal, Sate, Corporate and Family will crush the current negative real growth into deep depression territory.

Interest rates will remain low for decades. Or until the dollar collapses.  Bernanke would have charged you $250,000 per hour for that bit of info. Though he would omit the dollar collapse part.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:08 | 5125874 lester1
lester1's picture

Crazy how we see this, but the people at the FED does not.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:09 | 5125880 walküre
walküre's picture

Poker game. You never show your cards until the end. Fed is bluffing.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:27 | 5125925 Lore
Lore's picture

You think Yellen is that intelligent? I think she's just a Company Woman, peddling the bafflegab she's been fed all her life. What's disturbing is how the mainstream market still seems deluded.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:05 | 5126183 crazybob369
crazybob369's picture

Every time I see a picture of her she seems to have that deer-in-the-headlights kind of look. Totally in over her head.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:31 | 5126347 Sages wife
Sages wife's picture

Re: poker game

Remember, if you've been in the game for awhile and you don't know who the mark is,'s you.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:01 | 5125843 himaroid
himaroid's picture

Old yellen desperately needs you to sell your long tbonds. She will try to headfake them out of you in the morning. If you fall for that crap, I will be buying them from you at the discount. She will then come out with some dovish BS later in the day, and I will be laughing all weekend.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:04 | 5125855 economessed
economessed's picture

Janet owns it -- of course she's going to read a highly choreographed script full of happy times in a flowery garden filled with soft bunnies.


Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:05 | 5125859 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

I think she will say, 'I didn't see it coming!'

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:14 | 5125902 knukles
knukles's picture

See what coming?

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:47 | 5126077 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture


Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:04 | 5125860 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture


Former CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton, who famously blasted high-frequency traders as "cheetahs" when he was a regulator, has gone to work with a leading high-frequency trading association, the group said Thursday.

The switch is a dramatic example of a regulator becoming a paid consultant for an industry he once criticized—and it says as much about how the high-frequency trading industry is changing its approach as it does about Washington's often-criticized revolving door.

Chilton, who left the CFTC earlier this year, joined the law and lobbying firm of DLA Piper as a senior policy advisor in April. On Thursday, the Modern Markets Initiative announced that Chilton and DLA Piper will work with the association's newly appointed CEO Bill Harts on "regulatory and public policy matters."

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:09 | 5125883 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yet another example of a govt "regulator" who should be behind bars for not enforcing existing law.

What a sad sack of shit he turned out to be.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:37 | 5126007 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

If he had not been a piece of shit to begin with, he would never have been employed by the CFTC.

Similarly, the CIA makes sure that the Justices of the Supreme Court can be blackmailed and controlled.  If you are clean, there is no chance you will be nominated to the Supreme Court.

Welcome to the fascist, police state where criminality and venality are virtues

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:05 | 5125861 Dungholio
Dungholio's picture

Fuck me, it looks like they can keep this shit up forever.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:13 | 5125893 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Not forever, certainly longer than thought possible, but they can't keep it up forever.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:16 | 5125915 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

at 37yrs old i'm caught in the middle. i am now rooting for them to keep it up for another 15-20 years. i hope that's not too much to ask.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:21 | 5125936 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

Not at all, fonz.  You've layed out the root of the problem.  At all costs- peace in my time. 

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:29 | 5125967 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

With all the wars that the US is engaged in, collapse will come sooner than most think or anticipate.  The US already blew $6000 billion on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan fueled by the false flag 9/11 event.  That compares to the $738 billion (in 2011 dollars) blown on the Vietnam war fueled by the Gulf of Tonkin incident that never happened.

The eternal wars for eternal peace and the more than 900 foreign military bases in more than 130 countries will bankrupt the US much sooner than people anticipate.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:29 | 5125972 Lore
Lore's picture


Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:33 | 5125978 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

Peace for me.  Some Americans are suffering, but many are not.  The rest of the world?  As Nuland would say- Fuck them.  And so the beat goes on.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:35 | 5126002 Lore
Lore's picture

Wow. Talk about being part of the problem.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:40 | 5126026 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

ha ha.  Did I really need to say that's not my, personal viewpoint?  Peace to you. Lore. :)

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:22 | 5125937 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Calm down young man. We have moar than enough cheerleaders to deal with without you joining the chorus.   :)

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:24 | 5125945 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I just turned 51 so 10-15 years sound good to me, after that you youngsters are on your own.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:26 | 5125961 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I have seen too many flomax commercials with those 60 year old guys clanging their water bottles and laughing while they drive the convertable along the coast to go play gold. It's looks pleasant.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:31 | 5125986 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Sometimes they play golf too.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:35 | 5125998 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Haha my bad! by play gold I meant they were shorting it.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:30 | 5125981 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

I have a foot in the "blow it up now camp" and "wait 20 years" camp. The big factor for me is having kids: Either do it now so I can protect them, or do it in 20 years so they will have had some time to grow into self-sufficient adults.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 16:01 | 5126520 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

LOL. Fifteen to twenty years! You'll be lucky if you have that many months. At least you'll be young and spry when the zombies start chasing you.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:33 | 5125947 Chief Wonder Bread
Chief Wonder Bread's picture

-- Not forever, certainly longer than thought possible, but they can't keep it up forever.

Some debt-cancelling event (?) has to occur first.

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