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Previewing Yellen's Jackon Hole "Gobbledygook": Not One Analyst Thinks Yellen Will Say Anything Remotely Hawkish

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Ahead of Yellen's Jackson Hole speech tomorrow, the sell-side, hypnotized by 6 years of Fed bubble-inflating generosity, refuses to even consider the possibility that the Fed could possibly pull the punch bowl away, and the absolutely unanimous consensus is that despite yesterday's minutes (or perhaps due to, because as the Chinese Department of Truth has taught us, one must first and foremost baffle with BS), Yellen will go uber-dove. So without further ado, here is what the Penguins expect Yellen's "gobbledygook" will reveal tomorrow, and as a reminder, yesterday Citi warned that there is "tremendous" downside risk if Yellen doesn't go "full-dovish".

From Bloomberg:

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi

  • Fed’s July minutes indicate many on FOMC see possible need to change characterization of labor mkt utilization, economist Chris Rupkey wrote
  • Yellen may address FOMC’s changing views as soon as Friday

Citi

  • Yellen to “respond in force” to calls for earlier rate increase, justify keeping current guidance, economist William Lee wrote

Credit Suisse

  • Geopolitical tensions with Russia, fighting in Middle East give Yellen and others excuse to delay “more hawkish rhetoric,” research analysts Dana Saporta, Xiao Cui wrote

HSBC

  • Yellen to repeat view on “undesirable” slack in labor mkt, economist Kevin Logan wrote
  • She’ll reiterate view even after recent unemployment decline

Jefferies

  • Jackson Hole won’t be “game changer,” economists Ward McCarthy, Thomas Simons wrote
  • Fed will not establish time frame for rates liftoff this week

Market Securities

  • Yellen’s tone should remain dovish this week, strategist Christophe Barraud wrote
  • She’s likely to focus on labor mkt slack, explain how it persists despite falling unemployment rate

Nomura

  • Yellen likely to emphasize plenty of evidence of slack, even with recent improvements in labor mkts, economist Lewis Alexander wrote
  • Not likely to signal policy change

Pierpont

  • Yellen seen as continuing to “swear up and down” that slack remains in labor mkt to justify “holding policy at emergency stance,” economist Stephen Stanley wrote

Renaissance Macro

  • Yellen to reiterate her “lower for longer” and “significant labor market slack” views, economist Neil Dutta wrote

Scotia

  • Yellen to give dovish “gobbledygook” on Friday, strategist Guy Haselmann wrote
  • Speech will likely discuss labor mkt slack as justification for “uber-accommodation”

Standard Chartered

  • Yellen to cite large slack in Jackson Hole speech, economist Thomas Costerg wrote
  • No hints of imminent policy action are expected
 

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Thu, 08/21/2014 - 13:58 | 5125825 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Who really cares anymore.....  

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:07 | 5125858 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

No one, except the Fed themselves, because they have no tools left other than healines.  They represent the greater Western banking system as a whole by their complete inept policies and bankrupt measures, just like the member banks themselves, who are 100% insolvent.

 

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:08 | 5125877 walküre
walküre's picture

Your complacency is your enemy's best friend..

The gold smashdown is a precursor for the coming print fest 2.0 and with bigger and better printers.

 

 

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:12 | 5125894 knukles
knukles's picture

Sounds like a primo valid reason.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:14 | 5125900 Slave
Slave's picture

Tyler said gook. That's rayciss.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:44 | 5126052 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Maybe Yellen is not speak Hawkish because is speaking Yiddish...? Is not language of Rothschild family and agent of (mis)fortune?

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:12 | 5126214 walküre
walküre's picture

Boris is must be more careful with chosing of language and offend not the peoples of origin from chosen.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:23 | 5126285 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Boris is not fearful of bastard offspring of Rothschild legacy.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:32 | 5126345 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

What's the correlation between jackson hole and gold smack down? 98%

Before he was bitten on the throat and turned into a bloodsucking financialvampiresquid...

http://www.321gold.com/fed/greenspan/1966.html

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:15 | 5125904 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Maybe.  We'll see I guess.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:34 | 5125997 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yep, FED works for the banksters, period.  Headline should read:

"Not One Analyst Thinks Yellen Will Say Anything Remotely Intelligible."

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:14 | 5125899 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

"There ain't nuthin uglier than an old white woman."   Fred Sanford,   Sanford and Son.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:26 | 5125956 RattNRoll
RattNRoll's picture

Imagine a Glory Hole and she was on the other end.....

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:45 | 5126062 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Is this how you say in English, "fugly"...?

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:20 | 5126235 813kml
813kml's picture

By the look of things, Yellen would fit in on either side.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:38 | 5126017 ArdentArgent
ArdentArgent's picture

Bring out the Yellen Clamp

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-9oAqal6LU

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 13:58 | 5125829 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

A-holes in J-Hole

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:17 | 5126240 813kml
813kml's picture

While economy circles B(lack)-Hole.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 13:59 | 5125834 Dumpster Fire
Dumpster Fire's picture

all the worlds a stage

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:03 | 5125842 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

If the Fed raises rates, the high debt in America, Federal, Sate, Corporate and Family will crush the current negative real growth into deep depression territory.

Interest rates will remain low for decades. Or until the dollar collapses.  Bernanke would have charged you $250,000 per hour for that bit of info. Though he would omit the dollar collapse part.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:08 | 5125874 lester1
lester1's picture

Crazy how we see this, but the people at the FED does not.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:09 | 5125880 walküre
walküre's picture

Poker game. You never show your cards until the end. Fed is bluffing.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:27 | 5125925 Lore
Lore's picture

You think Yellen is that intelligent? I think she's just a Company Woman, peddling the bafflegab she's been fed all her life. What's disturbing is how the mainstream market still seems deluded.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:05 | 5126183 crazybob369
crazybob369's picture

Every time I see a picture of her she seems to have that deer-in-the-headlights kind of look. Totally in over her head.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:31 | 5126347 Sages wife
Sages wife's picture

Re: poker game

Remember, if you've been in the game for awhile and you don't know who the mark is,...it's you.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:01 | 5125843 himaroid
himaroid's picture

Old yellen desperately needs you to sell your long tbonds. She will try to headfake them out of you in the morning. If you fall for that crap, I will be buying them from you at the discount. She will then come out with some dovish BS later in the day, and I will be laughing all weekend.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:04 | 5125855 economessed
economessed's picture

Janet owns it -- of course she's going to read a highly choreographed script full of happy times in a flowery garden filled with soft bunnies.

 

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:05 | 5125859 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

I think she will say, 'I didn't see it coming!'

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:14 | 5125902 knukles
knukles's picture

See what coming?

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:47 | 5126077 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

Exactly!

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:04 | 5125860 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

"

Former CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton, who famously blasted high-frequency traders as "cheetahs" when he was a regulator, has gone to work with a leading high-frequency trading association, the group said Thursday.

The switch is a dramatic example of a regulator becoming a paid consultant for an industry he once criticized—and it says as much about how the high-frequency trading industry is changing its approach as it does about Washington's often-criticized revolving door.

Chilton, who left the CFTC earlier this year, joined the law and lobbying firm of DLA Piper as a senior policy advisor in April. On Thursday, the Modern Markets Initiative announced that Chilton and DLA Piper will work with the association's newly appointed CEO Bill Harts on "regulatory and public policy matters."

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:09 | 5125883 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yet another example of a govt "regulator" who should be behind bars for not enforcing existing law.

What a sad sack of shit he turned out to be.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:37 | 5126007 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

If he had not been a piece of shit to begin with, he would never have been employed by the CFTC.

Similarly, the CIA makes sure that the Justices of the Supreme Court can be blackmailed and controlled.  If you are clean, there is no chance you will be nominated to the Supreme Court.

Welcome to the fascist, police state where criminality and venality are virtues

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:05 | 5125861 Dungholio
Dungholio's picture

Fuck me, it looks like they can keep this shit up forever.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:13 | 5125893 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Not forever, certainly longer than thought possible, but they can't keep it up forever.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:16 | 5125915 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

at 37yrs old i'm caught in the middle. i am now rooting for them to keep it up for another 15-20 years. i hope that's not too much to ask.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:21 | 5125936 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

Not at all, fonz.  You've layed out the root of the problem.  At all costs- peace in my time. 

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:29 | 5125967 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

With all the wars that the US is engaged in, collapse will come sooner than most think or anticipate.  The US already blew $6000 billion on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan fueled by the false flag 9/11 event.  That compares to the $738 billion (in 2011 dollars) blown on the Vietnam war fueled by the Gulf of Tonkin incident that never happened.

The eternal wars for eternal peace and the more than 900 foreign military bases in more than 130 countries will bankrupt the US much sooner than people anticipate.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:29 | 5125972 Lore
Lore's picture

PEACE?!?  WHERE?

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:33 | 5125978 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

Peace for me.  Some Americans are suffering, but many are not.  The rest of the world?  As Nuland would say- Fuck them.  And so the beat goes on.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:35 | 5126002 Lore
Lore's picture

Wow. Talk about being part of the problem.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:40 | 5126026 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

ha ha.  Did I really need to say that's not my, personal viewpoint?  Peace to you. Lore. :)

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:22 | 5125937 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Calm down young man. We have moar than enough cheerleaders to deal with without you joining the chorus.   :)

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:24 | 5125945 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I just turned 51 so 10-15 years sound good to me, after that you youngsters are on your own.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:26 | 5125961 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I have seen too many flomax commercials with those 60 year old guys clanging their water bottles and laughing while they drive the convertable along the coast to go play gold. It's looks pleasant.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:31 | 5125986 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Sometimes they play golf too.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:35 | 5125998 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Haha my bad! by play gold I meant they were shorting it.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:30 | 5125981 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

I have a foot in the "blow it up now camp" and "wait 20 years" camp. The big factor for me is having kids: Either do it now so I can protect them, or do it in 20 years so they will have had some time to grow into self-sufficient adults.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 16:01 | 5126520 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

LOL. Fifteen to twenty years! You'll be lucky if you have that many months. At least you'll be young and spry when the zombies start chasing you.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:33 | 5125947 Chief Wonder Bread
Chief Wonder Bread's picture

-- Not forever, certainly longer than thought possible, but they can't keep it up forever.

Some debt-cancelling event (?) has to occur first.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:24 | 5125939 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Second law of thermodynamics says no. Soon their farm animals, the American people, will also say no--"no more!"

An American, not US subject.

 

"Reduce entropy, guillotine a bankster."

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:37 | 5126383 Sages wife
Sages wife's picture

Janet Yellen, fluff girl.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:05 | 5125863 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

I am hoping for Yellowstone to blow up and hopefully obliterate all of Jackson Hole as well.

Sacrifices must be made....

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:47 | 5126051 crazybob369
crazybob369's picture

Sorry do disappoint, but if Yellowstone blows it ain't just Jackson Hole that's going to go. We may as well put our collective heads between our legs and kiss our collective asses good bye, because we're all going to die. Nasty way to go too. Inhaling volcanic dust and having it turn into cement inside our lungs. Gasp!! Although, if it takes out that trollish cunt and her court of idiots, it might be worth it.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:54 | 5126114 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

At least you know that it is for a good cause.  I am holding out for the really big one.

We have a better chance of that than the FED relinquishing control....

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:05 | 5125866 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

There are no FED hawks. They've been gone for a very long time.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:10 | 5125882 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Hello my long time friend, its been a while, you know who this is :) I hope you are doing well, I miss the old days at that unmentiond blog we used to frequesnt.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:11 | 5125888 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Aloha braddah! Great to see you again.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:16 | 5125911 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Lol likewise brother, I hope all is well with you in the Islands, no damage I take it?

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:27 | 5125965 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Big Island took a pretty good hit but Maui and rest of the Islands were spared from the two hurricanes.

Im on the mainland now hating life again. Haha...

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:12 | 5125890 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

as one of the few people unfortunate to have cnbc on behind me most of the day, it's incredible to see how shitty everything has become. It's mind blowing BOP. you have zh bailing to report everytime someone farts in ferguson. CNBC has to go the other way (lord knows they can't resort to scare tactics) and they spend most of the day showing idiots dumping buckets of ice water on their heads and cutting to segments showing what their putz reporters do in their private lives. it's fascinatingly awful.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:18 | 5125921 himaroid
himaroid's picture

Lucky thing they have the najarian brothers giving away their "free" book. That's the only advertiser they have.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:30 | 5126328 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Pretty soon CNBS will just start covering spring break and do some greasy reality TV shows like MTV.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:07 | 5125870 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

NAFTA Is 20 Years Old – Here Are 20 Facts That Show How It Is Destroying The Economy

http://www.globalresearch.ca/nafta-is-20-years-old-here-are-20-facts-that-show-how-it-is-destroying-the-economy/5396316

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:47 | 5126071 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Here Are 20 Facts That Show How It Is Destroying The Economy of the Trash Class.  

The US has never cared about the trash tho.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:10 | 5125881 ekm1
ekm1's picture

 

re-post again

 

 

By the time Obama finishes his term in Jan 2017, USD could lose its status already assuming this rate of rejection stays the same or get accelerated.

 

I see no reason for the Rate of USD Rejection slowing down, unless Congress and White House order the Fed to drain dollars from the system and US Military re-starts interventions, which are both vetoed by Obama.

 

So, two options:

- Either USD dies as world currency

- Or Obama falls before his term is over.

 

My bet?

Obama falls before his term is over, if dollars not drained and if he vetoes US Military interventions.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:15 | 5125901 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I agree 100%...it's a re-post.

The USD is not getting rejected. it's getting scarce. Look at South Africa. Hot money leaving, interest rates climbing, property market collapsing, currency tanking. All because they are running low on USD.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:21 | 5125922 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Sorry, Fonz, I look at China, Russia, not some lost country somewhere in the world

 

If USD were not getting rejected, food stamps would have not flourished from 20 something million people to 40 something million in few years

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:26 | 5125951 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The U.S and China are at each others throats over Africa. It's the "A" in BRIC.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:29 | 5125964 ekm1
ekm1's picture

I am simply stating reality Fonz

China is settling 20% of its REAL trade in yuan now, as opposed to 1% in 2009 when QE started

 

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/04/07/redback-rising-how-chinas-r...

 

Projected to be 30% by 2015.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:36 | 5126011 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

So what? Even if that is accurate...so what? Maybe the dollar nudges over in the next decade or so and makes a little room for the Yuan....this could play out over decades. 

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:41 | 5126030 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Which means that USA can no longer just print money to buy stuff from the world by 30% less and growing faster

 

hence more food stamps

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:48 | 5126073 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

we don't need to print more because the world is starving for UST's....which we issue at lower and lower yields.

If people were rejecting the usd we could not issue more food stamps. Hence everyone around here screaming about "the day the ebt cards shut down".

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:49 | 5126090 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Correct.

I cooked some USTs yesterday with olive oil and bacon.

Very tasty.

 

Also, I used USTs as fueld for my car. I no longer use gasoline.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:06 | 5126130 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Too bad, gas keeps getting cheaper in USD

:P

You need to watch this later. You are the first guy and the bernak is the 2nd guy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8G0aqVZC0eU

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 23:47 | 5128517 Farqued Up
Farqued Up's picture

No death spiral is a straight line with a gentle downward slope. I don't know the point where it rolls off the table but I bet it will not look like the slope of a 1 to 12 roof on our houses. It's been on that slope up through Jimmy Carter. Credit Card Ronnie took over and the price of poker went up dramatically.

Since then the slope is steeper and steeper now with ZIRP, Belgian bond purchases. Snowdyke and fellow travelers are juggling 4 balls and are adding a fifth. Gravity will prevail, like the rubber band breaking after pulling it too tightly. I really think things are beyond the pendulum scenario.

RUPTURE ALERT!!

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:15 | 5125905 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

It still has to be replaced by something else.    What other county/countries are going to provide a substitute? 

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:26 | 5125953 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Not it doesn't have to. I've said that several times already.

 

World of 1930s had no reserve currency.

Most trade was bilateral, barter, as it is occurring now.

World is getting deglobalized

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:39 | 5126025 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

world of 1930's had no reserve currency?

http://azizonomics.com/2012/01/04/a-history-of-reserve-currencies-in-one...

According to that chart Britan handed the torch off to us. What happened to Britan's currency when they handed that torch off by the way? Did they hyperinflate?

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:45 | 5126046 ekm1
ekm1's picture

There was no world currency in the 1930s, Fonz. Most world trade was bilateral.

British pound was used somehow in the world at the time, but Britain was almost dead as empire

 

Bretton Woods made USD world currency by agreement due to USA being clear winner of war.

 

The whole point of having world currency is globalization, world trade.

If world trade get fractured like the 1930s, then no need for world currency

 

 

WORLD CURRENCY = GLOBALIZATION

GLOBALIZATION = WORLD CURRENCY

 

Both exist or not exist simultaneously

 

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:50 | 5126100 Unknown Poster
Unknown Poster's picture

Britain defaulted in 1931 when they went off the gold standard. Their high inflation was earlier to pay for WWI.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 23:29 | 5128475 Farqued Up
Farqued Up's picture

The banksters are to Jeff Dunham as Obummer is to Jose Jalapeño, a dumbass with a stick up his smartest organ, his Hershey highway.

He'll do as told.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:11 | 5125887 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Fed "hawks" are only there for a distraction to give the fed an air of legitimacy. They all know that there can never be a meaningful hike in the fed funds. This time next year we will be having the same conversation, provided we haven't been vaporized due to WWIII heating up.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:15 | 5125908 griffey247
griffey247's picture

Come on...Did anyone think they were gonna raise rates before the 2016 election? 

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:18 | 5125920 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

yes, i do think they will.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 23:19 | 5128449 Farqued Up
Farqued Up's picture

Because they are dumb fucks?

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:56 | 5126134 crazybob369
crazybob369's picture

May or June 2015, followed by a market meltdown, followed by panicked QE to infinity (and beyond). You heard it here first.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:16 | 5125909 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

I was a fly-on-the-wall at Jackson Hole and this is what was said by Yellen: "We will keep stealing and calling it 'printing,' and we will keep distracting them with talk of interest rates while we rob them blinder."

An American, not US subject.

 

"Guillotine the Fed!"

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:26 | 5125954 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Not so sure.   My own opinion is the what we (wrongly) call "Keynesianism" (on here) is just a religion (dogma) followed by the intelligentsia,  and - like any religion - as long as the elite prosper from the religion it becomes the official religion and is blindly followed by the intelligentsia who are doing very well enabling the elite.  

When there are so many people involved there can't conscious immorality.    Religion is the packaged bullshit which allow for immoral activities to become moral through the magic of duplicity.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:54 | 5126121 crazybob369
crazybob369's picture

Well said!

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:57 | 5126133 honestann
honestann's picture

Like most religious and political leaders, the intelligentsia predators knows the religion they promote is blatantly false, and explicitly designed to suck their prey dry.  So yes, there is indeed completely conscious widespread immorality.  The predators-that-be who run the racket (oligarchs, politicians, banksters) understand this, the paid-thug predators who enforce these schemes understand this (authorities, officials, cops) understand this, and most (but not all) of the masses who want (and thus support) handouts understand this.

Sadly, the group who understand the least is the clueless sheeple-chimps who try to be honest, ethical, productive and benevolent.  Sadly, a majority of them actually buy the nonsense.

At first, this state of affairs seems crazy and unlikely.  But when you think about it a while, you realize why it makes sense.  Only if you don't understand how utterly, completely, overwhelmingly corrupt the system is would you make the effort required to be honest, ethical, productive and benevolent.  That should be almost obvious.

Anyone who does understand the nature of the system either becomes an active predator (politician, bankster, authority, official, cop, etc), a more passive predator (parasite) who votes for the most egregious handout promising predators in exchange for the chance of receiving those promised handouts.

Those who do invest the time, effort and resources to be honest, ethical, productive and benevolent are mostly clueless (otherwise they wouldn't bother).  The exception is an extremely tiny minority of honest, ethical, productive, benevolent human beings who do understand the racket, decide to remain as they are anyway, but then invest considerable time, effort, attention and actions to find ways to be productive without feeding the predators.  That is increasingly a challenge as time passes, which is why increasing numbers of producers will in fact shrug and chose to live simple frugal lives almost entirely outside the system.  Almost certainly no large-scale Galt's Gulch will be formed, but you can bet that thousands and perhaps even millions of microscopic informal Galt's Gulches will form.  Many already have.  These will be microscopic (mostly the size of one to four families), but most will also involve voluntary interactions and exchanges with other "micro-gulches" (for lack of a better term).

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:21 | 5125932 scubapro
scubapro's picture

 

 

given that 'hawkish'  in todays vernacular is something like "rate will normalize over time",  she will say something hawkish, quickly followed by, "but not right now".     the result will be a 2-3 day reversal of all trends leading intot he meeting; after that we will have to see which items come back to the starting point.    $ probably needs a rest; gold needs a boost, oil back up; stocks 'consolidate', yeilds say 'meh'. 

but really more like this:  "the economy is expanding, moderately, thanks to us; wages are flat and there is some slack so rates will be (airquotes) low, until  some subjective series of statistics comes out that implies 'its not our fault' if things get f'd from here."

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:25 | 5125948 Tjeff1
Tjeff1's picture

And PM's are still down.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:27 | 5125962 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

That's because the DowBuck is the one true currency now.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 23:12 | 5128420 Farqued Up
Farqued Up's picture

Yeah, with Apple's NASDAQ's appendage adding gravy. With the SHTF, I suppose we ought to buy some repair support stocks such as Home Depot and Auto Zone, or their more well run brothers. It's pretty obvious that the new homes and autos sales aren't what they once were, and may be a long dry spell before they come back.

I got it, we need to up the illegals rate of entry to replace us dying boomers. The banksters' ponzis suffer with diminishing demand, why, the mofo may collapse.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:28 | 5125970 RattNRoll
RattNRoll's picture

Should see a jump next week on pm's. I dont see them going down much more. They are below production cost as it is.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:26 | 5125955 hotrod
hotrod's picture

If Japan has never been able to achieve a high interest rate economic turn around then NO WAY does the US have the industry and low debt structrue to do it.  Is the economy really great???  The elections are only months away and I see no one talking about anything economic. It is like immigration, middle east, racial tensions, and Russia are the narratives.  When does ZIRP ruin everyone. An entire money generating engine for millions has been gone for years now. My mother is 83 and her income is half what it used to be because her fixed asset mix of municipals, money market etc. pay nothing when she used to get 8%.  Yet we hear record TAX RECEIPTS are coming into the FED.  Yet the Labor partiicpation rate is at record lows, and people dont have interest income anymore. I guess the high tax receipts reflect the Dow and higher prices of retail goods which we are told does not exist.  If my high priced M&Ms or chip bag get any smaller I'll have to quit.  At least the deficit does not matter anymore. 

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:32 | 5125987 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Sure, but don't forget just how well the top 10% are doing and how not-so-bad the top 20% are doing.    There's no talk on "anything economic" because there nothing wrong.   Over 50% of the population is getting money from the Feds,   the top 20% are doing fine,  the middle is stagnate but getting used to it (and have enough cheap bling to impress the neighbors).

In reality, there's no economic problem other than the Red and Blue Team trading bullshit and the Libertarians being perpetually morally outraged over non-frugality.  

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:35 | 5125999 Hohum
Hohum's picture

I feel much better when I remember that finance is absurd and banks make idiotic decisions continually.  Singing "Don't worry, be happy" helps, too.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:34 | 5126000 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Contact your doctor immediately if a volume-less ramp lasts more than 4 hours

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:38 | 5126016 Calculus99
Calculus99's picture

Hotrod

Was just thinking the same thing about the size of the Mars Bars I buy. If they get any smaller I'm just not prepared to play that game anymore.

Here in the UK I reckon they've shrunk by about 50% over the last 5-10 years. Price, well we all know which direction that has gone, doubled. 

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:42 | 5126037 touchdown
touchdown's picture

Like Greenie or Bendover, she will talk vigilance but print and or ease.  Come on!  Are people really that naive? 

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:47 | 5126070 Hohum
Hohum's picture

touchdown,

 

Yes.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:48 | 5126078 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The last time Wall Street said she was a super Dove she started to cut QE.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:20 | 5126258 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And markets have added 10% since that shocking move.....ZZzzzzzzz

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:50 | 5126098 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Chance the S&P trades past 2000 : 100%

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:52 | 5126102 Rinzler
Rinzler's picture

Please, for the love of all that's holy - never use the words 'Yellen' and 'Hole' in the same sentence again.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:06 | 5126186 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

agreed, yellen and four car garage is more appropriate

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 14:53 | 5126117 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All of them bent over ready to get a Dove bar right up the kornhole from jacksonhole.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:05 | 5126180 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

first off, banks work together - they all get the same memo and drink the same kool-aid (or is it punch?)

 

second, markets control coupon rates - the Fed has influenced rates lower, but taper continues, so unless yellen jacks POMO, Fed bond purchases are fading fast

 

rates may hold - lots of flight to safety coming, but buying Barry's debt may require some rate adjustments - enough to tank this pig of a market

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:18 | 5126247 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All crashes come right at peak euphoria and total concensus that everything's fixed and nothing can go wrong again.....peak 'we got the shit this time'

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:22 | 5126268 Farqued Up
Farqued Up's picture

The hotline to Brussels bond desks is screaming for help. I'll bet that if that Snowdyke takes away the teat, she'll flop them back in the pie hole.

Madoff will be released to become the new Treasury Boss. He'll teach them some REAL tricks, not simply a magician but an Illusionist. He was hatching chain letters for kids' lunch money in the 3rd grade. No different at the Fed, just larger stakes.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:10 | 5126205 TabakLover
TabakLover's picture

People will cite endlessly that if even one person says the market is gonna crash.....it won't. The theory is that, nothing "major" can happen until everyone believes it cannot happen..   NO ONE is saying Yellen might pull a hawk outta her shorts. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:25 | 5126293 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea and last time Yellen went all surprisey and announced tapering QE what did we get....another +300 S&P? More mushrooms please.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 15:22 | 5126276 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just imagine if Yellen again surprises and mentions rate increases imminent....+300 more on the S&P....here eat another mushroom it will all make more sense.

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 16:40 | 5126682 Haager
Haager's picture

Technically, stocks are near the top, pivot on spx is around 2003-2005, So, market plays for dove but expects a more hawkish stance. So, let's surprise the stock-bulls...

Thu, 08/21/2014 - 18:57 | 5127467 esum
esum's picture

what makes the  F E D think they could ever collect the actual debt owed by the ussa? 

who they gonna call, one of the ny 5 families ? 

looking at anythinig "according to the law" is the perfect way to get blindsided.... THERE IS NO LAW... simply the illusion of law.. for the FOLKS... THERE IS NO JUSTICE... again the illusion of same ... for the FOLKS

want proof..... Corzine, the orange man referred to in another article, JP Morgan london whale, Peregrine, the silver fix, the gold fix, DOJ abuse of banks (who may be crooks but are getting extorted, according to another article), killing Khadaffy, ousting Mubarak, Ukraine semi revolt debacle.....Geithner no tax paid, Kerry avoids yacht tax, Hilary keeps 1/2 million dollar necklace (says she will give it back)... bombing syria, not bombing isis... not securing the border, firing 8000 navy chiefs, getting hundreds of genrals to resign... not following the Constitution.. on and on.... 

 

Janet Yellen caould come out topless wearing a mink crotchless thong and pole dance.... it would be as effective as anything she will say... She knows the truth is there is NO USSA RECOVERY.... BUT SHE CANT SAY THAT SO SHE SAYS THERE IS, AND THE FED IS MONITORING THE SITUAION CLOSELY AND CONIDERING ALL APPROPRIATE ACTION, INCLUDING WHEN TO EASE LESS AND RAISE RATES.... WHICH WILL NOT HAPPEN..... CORPS BUY BACK STOCK WITH WORTHLESS DOLLARS, EARNED OR BORROWED... IMPRESS SHAREHOLDERS AND THE BEAT GOES ON... ON EMORE REV ON THE MERRYGOROUND, BUT NO REAL PROGRESS... THE GLOBE IS IN CHAOS, except in obama's tranquil(ized) one, and RACIAL CHAOS IS IN THE WORKS.... TIME TO LET MANSON OUT... 

 

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