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Previewing Yellen's Jackon Hole "Gobbledygook": Not One Analyst Thinks Yellen Will Say Anything Remotely Hawkish
Ahead of Yellen's Jackson Hole speech tomorrow, the sell-side, hypnotized by 6 years of Fed bubble-inflating generosity, refuses to even consider the possibility that the Fed could possibly pull the punch bowl away, and the absolutely unanimous consensus is that despite yesterday's minutes (or perhaps due to, because as the Chinese Department of Truth has taught us, one must first and foremost baffle with BS), Yellen will go uber-dove. So without further ado, here is what the Penguins expect Yellen's "gobbledygook" will reveal tomorrow, and as a reminder, yesterday Citi warned that there is "tremendous" downside risk if Yellen doesn't go "full-dovish".
From Bloomberg:
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi
- Fed’s July minutes indicate many on FOMC see possible need to change characterization of labor mkt utilization, economist Chris Rupkey wrote
- Yellen may address FOMC’s changing views as soon as Friday
Citi
- Yellen to “respond in force” to calls for earlier rate increase, justify keeping current guidance, economist William Lee wrote
Credit Suisse
- Geopolitical tensions with Russia, fighting in Middle East give Yellen and others excuse to delay “more hawkish rhetoric,” research analysts Dana Saporta, Xiao Cui wrote
HSBC
- Yellen to repeat view on “undesirable” slack in labor mkt, economist Kevin Logan wrote
- She’ll reiterate view even after recent unemployment decline
Jefferies
- Jackson Hole won’t be “game changer,” economists Ward McCarthy, Thomas Simons wrote
- Fed will not establish time frame for rates liftoff this week
Market Securities
- Yellen’s tone should remain dovish this week, strategist Christophe Barraud wrote
- She’s likely to focus on labor mkt slack, explain how it persists despite falling unemployment rate
Nomura
- Yellen likely to emphasize plenty of evidence of slack, even with recent improvements in labor mkts, economist Lewis Alexander wrote
- Not likely to signal policy change
Pierpont
- Yellen seen as continuing to “swear up and down” that slack remains in labor mkt to justify “holding policy at emergency stance,” economist Stephen Stanley wrote
Renaissance Macro
- Yellen to reiterate her “lower for longer” and “significant labor market slack” views, economist Neil Dutta wrote
Scotia
- Yellen to give dovish “gobbledygook” on Friday, strategist Guy Haselmann wrote
- Speech will likely discuss labor mkt slack as justification for “uber-accommodation”
Standard Chartered
- Yellen to cite large slack in Jackson Hole speech, economist Thomas Costerg wrote
- No hints of imminent policy action are expected
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Who really cares anymore.....
No one, except the Fed themselves, because they have no tools left other than healines. They represent the greater Western banking system as a whole by their complete inept policies and bankrupt measures, just like the member banks themselves, who are 100% insolvent.
Your complacency is your enemy's best friend..
The gold smashdown is a precursor for the coming print fest 2.0 and with bigger and better printers.
Sounds like a primo valid reason.
Tyler said gook. That's rayciss.
Maybe Yellen is not speak Hawkish because is speaking Yiddish...? Is not language of Rothschild family and agent of (mis)fortune?
Boris is must be more careful with chosing of language and offend not the peoples of origin from chosen.
Boris is not fearful of bastard offspring of Rothschild legacy.
What's the correlation between jackson hole and gold smack down? 98%
Before he was bitten on the throat and turned into a bloodsucking financialvampiresquid...
http://www.321gold.com/fed/greenspan/1966.html
Maybe. We'll see I guess.
Yep, FED works for the banksters, period. Headline should read:
"Not One Analyst Thinks Yellen Will Say Anything Remotely Intelligible."
"There ain't nuthin uglier than an old white woman." Fred Sanford, Sanford and Son.
Imagine a Glory Hole and she was on the other end.....
Is this how you say in English, "fugly"...?
By the look of things, Yellen would fit in on either side.
Bring out the Yellen Clamp
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-9oAqal6LU
A-holes in J-Hole
While economy circles B(lack)-Hole.
all the worlds a stage
If the Fed raises rates, the high debt in America, Federal, Sate, Corporate and Family will crush the current negative real growth into deep depression territory.
Interest rates will remain low for decades. Or until the dollar collapses. Bernanke would have charged you $250,000 per hour for that bit of info. Though he would omit the dollar collapse part.
Crazy how we see this, but the people at the FED does not.
Poker game. You never show your cards until the end. Fed is bluffing.
You think Yellen is that intelligent? I think she's just a Company Woman, peddling the bafflegab she's been fed all her life. What's disturbing is how the mainstream market still seems deluded.
Every time I see a picture of her she seems to have that deer-in-the-headlights kind of look. Totally in over her head.
Re: poker game
Remember, if you've been in the game for awhile and you don't know who the mark is,...it's you.
Old yellen desperately needs you to sell your long tbonds. She will try to headfake them out of you in the morning. If you fall for that crap, I will be buying them from you at the discount. She will then come out with some dovish BS later in the day, and I will be laughing all weekend.
Janet owns it -- of course she's going to read a highly choreographed script full of happy times in a flowery garden filled with soft bunnies.
I think she will say, 'I didn't see it coming!'
See what coming?
Exactly!
"
Former CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton, who famously blasted high-frequency traders as "cheetahs" when he was a regulator, has gone to work with a leading high-frequency trading association, the group said Thursday.
The switch is a dramatic example of a regulator becoming a paid consultant for an industry he once criticized—and it says as much about how the high-frequency trading industry is changing its approach as it does about Washington's often-criticized revolving door.
Chilton, who left the CFTC earlier this year, joined the law and lobbying firm of DLA Piper as a senior policy advisor in April. On Thursday, the Modern Markets Initiative announced that Chilton and DLA Piper will work with the association's newly appointed CEO Bill Harts on "regulatory and public policy matters."
Yet another example of a govt "regulator" who should be behind bars for not enforcing existing law.
What a sad sack of shit he turned out to be.
If he had not been a piece of shit to begin with, he would never have been employed by the CFTC.
Similarly, the CIA makes sure that the Justices of the Supreme Court can be blackmailed and controlled. If you are clean, there is no chance you will be nominated to the Supreme Court.
Welcome to the fascist, police state where criminality and venality are virtues
Fuck me, it looks like they can keep this shit up forever.
Not forever, certainly longer than thought possible, but they can't keep it up forever.
at 37yrs old i'm caught in the middle. i am now rooting for them to keep it up for another 15-20 years. i hope that's not too much to ask.
Not at all, fonz. You've layed out the root of the problem. At all costs- peace in my time.
With all the wars that the US is engaged in, collapse will come sooner than most think or anticipate. The US already blew $6000 billion on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan fueled by the false flag 9/11 event. That compares to the $738 billion (in 2011 dollars) blown on the Vietnam war fueled by the Gulf of Tonkin incident that never happened.
The eternal wars for eternal peace and the more than 900 foreign military bases in more than 130 countries will bankrupt the US much sooner than people anticipate.
PEACE?!? WHERE?
Peace for me. Some Americans are suffering, but many are not. The rest of the world? As Nuland would say- Fuck them. And so the beat goes on.
Wow. Talk about being part of the problem.
ha ha. Did I really need to say that's not my, personal viewpoint? Peace to you. Lore. :)
Calm down young man. We have moar than enough cheerleaders to deal with without you joining the chorus. :)
I just turned 51 so 10-15 years sound good to me, after that you youngsters are on your own.
I have seen too many flomax commercials with those 60 year old guys clanging their water bottles and laughing while they drive the convertable along the coast to go play gold. It's looks pleasant.
Sometimes they play golf too.
Haha my bad! by play gold I meant they were shorting it.
I have a foot in the "blow it up now camp" and "wait 20 years" camp. The big factor for me is having kids: Either do it now so I can protect them, or do it in 20 years so they will have had some time to grow into self-sufficient adults.
LOL. Fifteen to twenty years! You'll be lucky if you have that many months. At least you'll be young and spry when the zombies start chasing you.
-- Not forever, certainly longer than thought possible, but they can't keep it up forever.
Some debt-cancelling event (?) has to occur first.
Second law of thermodynamics says no. Soon their farm animals, the American people, will also say no--"no more!"
An American, not US subject.
"Reduce entropy, guillotine a bankster."
Janet Yellen, fluff girl.
I am hoping for Yellowstone to blow up and hopefully obliterate all of Jackson Hole as well.
Sacrifices must be made....
Sorry do disappoint, but if Yellowstone blows it ain't just Jackson Hole that's going to go. We may as well put our collective heads between our legs and kiss our collective asses good bye, because we're all going to die. Nasty way to go too. Inhaling volcanic dust and having it turn into cement inside our lungs. Gasp!! Although, if it takes out that trollish cunt and her court of idiots, it might be worth it.
At least you know that it is for a good cause. I am holding out for the really big one.
We have a better chance of that than the FED relinquishing control....
There are no FED hawks. They've been gone for a very long time.
Hello my long time friend, its been a while, you know who this is :) I hope you are doing well, I miss the old days at that unmentiond blog we used to frequesnt.
Aloha braddah! Great to see you again.
Lol likewise brother, I hope all is well with you in the Islands, no damage I take it?
Big Island took a pretty good hit but Maui and rest of the Islands were spared from the two hurricanes.
Im on the mainland now hating life again. Haha...
as one of the few people unfortunate to have cnbc on behind me most of the day, it's incredible to see how shitty everything has become. It's mind blowing BOP. you have zh bailing to report everytime someone farts in ferguson. CNBC has to go the other way (lord knows they can't resort to scare tactics) and they spend most of the day showing idiots dumping buckets of ice water on their heads and cutting to segments showing what their putz reporters do in their private lives. it's fascinatingly awful.
Lucky thing they have the najarian brothers giving away their "free" book. That's the only advertiser they have.
Pretty soon CNBS will just start covering spring break and do some greasy reality TV shows like MTV.
NAFTA Is 20 Years Old – Here Are 20 Facts That Show How It Is Destroying The Economy
http://www.globalresearch.ca/nafta-is-20-years-old-here-are-20-facts-that-show-how-it-is-destroying-the-economy/5396316
Here Are 20 Facts That Show How It Is Destroying The Economy of the Trash Class.
The US has never cared about the trash tho.
re-post again
By the time Obama finishes his term in Jan 2017, USD could lose its status already assuming this rate of rejection stays the same or get accelerated.
I see no reason for the Rate of USD Rejection slowing down, unless Congress and White House order the Fed to drain dollars from the system and US Military re-starts interventions, which are both vetoed by Obama.
So, two options:
- Either USD dies as world currency
- Or Obama falls before his term is over.
My bet?
Obama falls before his term is over, if dollars not drained and if he vetoes US Military interventions.
I agree 100%...it's a re-post.
The USD is not getting rejected. it's getting scarce. Look at South Africa. Hot money leaving, interest rates climbing, property market collapsing, currency tanking. All because they are running low on USD.
Sorry, Fonz, I look at China, Russia, not some lost country somewhere in the world
If USD were not getting rejected, food stamps would have not flourished from 20 something million people to 40 something million in few years
The U.S and China are at each others throats over Africa. It's the "A" in BRIC.
I am simply stating reality Fonz
China is settling 20% of its REAL trade in yuan now, as opposed to 1% in 2009 when QE started
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/04/07/redback-rising-how-chinas-r...
Projected to be 30% by 2015.
So what? Even if that is accurate...so what? Maybe the dollar nudges over in the next decade or so and makes a little room for the Yuan....this could play out over decades.
Which means that USA can no longer just print money to buy stuff from the world by 30% less and growing faster
hence more food stamps
we don't need to print more because the world is starving for UST's....which we issue at lower and lower yields.
If people were rejecting the usd we could not issue more food stamps. Hence everyone around here screaming about "the day the ebt cards shut down".
Correct.
I cooked some USTs yesterday with olive oil and bacon.
Very tasty.
Also, I used USTs as fueld for my car. I no longer use gasoline.
Too bad, gas keeps getting cheaper in USD
:P
You need to watch this later. You are the first guy and the bernak is the 2nd guy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8G0aqVZC0eU
No death spiral is a straight line with a gentle downward slope. I don't know the point where it rolls off the table but I bet it will not look like the slope of a 1 to 12 roof on our houses. It's been on that slope up through Jimmy Carter. Credit Card Ronnie took over and the price of poker went up dramatically.
Since then the slope is steeper and steeper now with ZIRP, Belgian bond purchases. Snowdyke and fellow travelers are juggling 4 balls and are adding a fifth. Gravity will prevail, like the rubber band breaking after pulling it too tightly. I really think things are beyond the pendulum scenario.
RUPTURE ALERT!!
It still has to be replaced by something else. What other county/countries are going to provide a substitute?
Not it doesn't have to. I've said that several times already.
World of 1930s had no reserve currency.
Most trade was bilateral, barter, as it is occurring now.
World is getting deglobalized
world of 1930's had no reserve currency?
http://azizonomics.com/2012/01/04/a-history-of-reserve-currencies-in-one...
According to that chart Britan handed the torch off to us. What happened to Britan's currency when they handed that torch off by the way? Did they hyperinflate?
There was no world currency in the 1930s, Fonz. Most world trade was bilateral.
British pound was used somehow in the world at the time, but Britain was almost dead as empire
Bretton Woods made USD world currency by agreement due to USA being clear winner of war.
The whole point of having world currency is globalization, world trade.
If world trade get fractured like the 1930s, then no need for world currency
WORLD CURRENCY = GLOBALIZATION
GLOBALIZATION = WORLD CURRENCY
Both exist or not exist simultaneously
Britain defaulted in 1931 when they went off the gold standard. Their high inflation was earlier to pay for WWI.
The banksters are to Jeff Dunham as Obummer is to Jose Jalapeño, a dumbass with a stick up his smartest organ, his Hershey highway.
He'll do as told.
Fed "hawks" are only there for a distraction to give the fed an air of legitimacy. They all know that there can never be a meaningful hike in the fed funds. This time next year we will be having the same conversation, provided we haven't been vaporized due to WWIII heating up.
Come on...Did anyone think they were gonna raise rates before the 2016 election?
yes, i do think they will.
Because they are dumb fucks?
May or June 2015, followed by a market meltdown, followed by panicked QE to infinity (and beyond). You heard it here first.
I was a fly-on-the-wall at Jackson Hole and this is what was said by Yellen: "We will keep stealing and calling it 'printing,' and we will keep distracting them with talk of interest rates while we rob them blinder."
An American, not US subject.
"Guillotine the Fed!"
Not so sure. My own opinion is the what we (wrongly) call "Keynesianism" (on here) is just a religion (dogma) followed by the intelligentsia, and - like any religion - as long as the elite prosper from the religion it becomes the official religion and is blindly followed by the intelligentsia who are doing very well enabling the elite.
When there are so many people involved there can't conscious immorality. Religion is the packaged bullshit which allow for immoral activities to become moral through the magic of duplicity.
Well said!
Like most religious and political leaders, the intelligentsia predators knows the religion they promote is blatantly false, and explicitly designed to suck their prey dry. So yes, there is indeed completely conscious widespread immorality. The predators-that-be who run the racket (oligarchs, politicians, banksters) understand this, the paid-thug predators who enforce these schemes understand this (authorities, officials, cops) understand this, and most (but not all) of the masses who want (and thus support) handouts understand this.
Sadly, the group who understand the least is the clueless sheeple-chimps who try to be honest, ethical, productive and benevolent. Sadly, a majority of them actually buy the nonsense.
At first, this state of affairs seems crazy and unlikely. But when you think about it a while, you realize why it makes sense. Only if you don't understand how utterly, completely, overwhelmingly corrupt the system is would you make the effort required to be honest, ethical, productive and benevolent. That should be almost obvious.
Anyone who does understand the nature of the system either becomes an active predator (politician, bankster, authority, official, cop, etc), a more passive predator (parasite) who votes for the most egregious handout promising predators in exchange for the chance of receiving those promised handouts.
Those who do invest the time, effort and resources to be honest, ethical, productive and benevolent are mostly clueless (otherwise they wouldn't bother). The exception is an extremely tiny minority of honest, ethical, productive, benevolent human beings who do understand the racket, decide to remain as they are anyway, but then invest considerable time, effort, attention and actions to find ways to be productive without feeding the predators. That is increasingly a challenge as time passes, which is why increasing numbers of producers will in fact shrug and chose to live simple frugal lives almost entirely outside the system. Almost certainly no large-scale Galt's Gulch will be formed, but you can bet that thousands and perhaps even millions of microscopic informal Galt's Gulches will form. Many already have. These will be microscopic (mostly the size of one to four families), but most will also involve voluntary interactions and exchanges with other "micro-gulches" (for lack of a better term).
given that 'hawkish' in todays vernacular is something like "rate will normalize over time", she will say something hawkish, quickly followed by, "but not right now". the result will be a 2-3 day reversal of all trends leading intot he meeting; after that we will have to see which items come back to the starting point. $ probably needs a rest; gold needs a boost, oil back up; stocks 'consolidate', yeilds say 'meh'.
but really more like this: "the economy is expanding, moderately, thanks to us; wages are flat and there is some slack so rates will be (airquotes) low, until some subjective series of statistics comes out that implies 'its not our fault' if things get f'd from here."
And PM's are still down.
That's because the DowBuck is the one true currency now.
Yeah, with Apple's NASDAQ's appendage adding gravy. With the SHTF, I suppose we ought to buy some repair support stocks such as Home Depot and Auto Zone, or their more well run brothers. It's pretty obvious that the new homes and autos sales aren't what they once were, and may be a long dry spell before they come back.
I got it, we need to up the illegals rate of entry to replace us dying boomers. The banksters' ponzis suffer with diminishing demand, why, the mofo may collapse.
Should see a jump next week on pm's. I dont see them going down much more. They are below production cost as it is.
If Japan has never been able to achieve a high interest rate economic turn around then NO WAY does the US have the industry and low debt structrue to do it. Is the economy really great??? The elections are only months away and I see no one talking about anything economic. It is like immigration, middle east, racial tensions, and Russia are the narratives. When does ZIRP ruin everyone. An entire money generating engine for millions has been gone for years now. My mother is 83 and her income is half what it used to be because her fixed asset mix of municipals, money market etc. pay nothing when she used to get 8%. Yet we hear record TAX RECEIPTS are coming into the FED. Yet the Labor partiicpation rate is at record lows, and people dont have interest income anymore. I guess the high tax receipts reflect the Dow and higher prices of retail goods which we are told does not exist. If my high priced M&Ms or chip bag get any smaller I'll have to quit. At least the deficit does not matter anymore.
Sure, but don't forget just how well the top 10% are doing and how not-so-bad the top 20% are doing. There's no talk on "anything economic" because there nothing wrong. Over 50% of the population is getting money from the Feds, the top 20% are doing fine, the middle is stagnate but getting used to it (and have enough cheap bling to impress the neighbors).
In reality, there's no economic problem other than the Red and Blue Team trading bullshit and the Libertarians being perpetually morally outraged over non-frugality.
I feel much better when I remember that finance is absurd and banks make idiotic decisions continually. Singing "Don't worry, be happy" helps, too.
Contact your doctor immediately if a volume-less ramp lasts more than 4 hours
Hotrod
Was just thinking the same thing about the size of the Mars Bars I buy. If they get any smaller I'm just not prepared to play that game anymore.
Here in the UK I reckon they've shrunk by about 50% over the last 5-10 years. Price, well we all know which direction that has gone, doubled.
Like Greenie or Bendover, she will talk vigilance but print and or ease. Come on! Are people really that naive?
touchdown,
Yes.
The last time Wall Street said she was a super Dove she started to cut QE.
And markets have added 10% since that shocking move.....ZZzzzzzzz
Chance the S&P trades past 2000 : 100%
Please, for the love of all that's holy - never use the words 'Yellen' and 'Hole' in the same sentence again.
agreed, yellen and four car garage is more appropriate
All of them bent over ready to get a Dove bar right up the kornhole from jacksonhole.
first off, banks work together - they all get the same memo and drink the same kool-aid (or is it punch?)
second, markets control coupon rates - the Fed has influenced rates lower, but taper continues, so unless yellen jacks POMO, Fed bond purchases are fading fast
rates may hold - lots of flight to safety coming, but buying Barry's debt may require some rate adjustments - enough to tank this pig of a market
All crashes come right at peak euphoria and total concensus that everything's fixed and nothing can go wrong again.....peak 'we got the shit this time'
The hotline to Brussels bond desks is screaming for help. I'll bet that if that Snowdyke takes away the teat, she'll flop them back in the pie hole.
Madoff will be released to become the new Treasury Boss. He'll teach them some REAL tricks, not simply a magician but an Illusionist. He was hatching chain letters for kids' lunch money in the 3rd grade. No different at the Fed, just larger stakes.
People will cite endlessly that if even one person says the market is gonna crash.....it won't. The theory is that, nothing "major" can happen until everyone believes it cannot happen.. NO ONE is saying Yellen might pull a hawk outta her shorts. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Yea and last time Yellen went all surprisey and announced tapering QE what did we get....another +300 S&P? More mushrooms please.
Just imagine if Yellen again surprises and mentions rate increases imminent....+300 more on the S&P....here eat another mushroom it will all make more sense.
Technically, stocks are near the top, pivot on spx is around 2003-2005, So, market plays for dove but expects a more hawkish stance. So, let's surprise the stock-bulls...
what makes the F E D think they could ever collect the actual debt owed by the ussa?
who they gonna call, one of the ny 5 families ?
looking at anythinig "according to the law" is the perfect way to get blindsided.... THERE IS NO LAW... simply the illusion of law.. for the FOLKS... THERE IS NO JUSTICE... again the illusion of same ... for the FOLKS
want proof..... Corzine, the orange man referred to in another article, JP Morgan london whale, Peregrine, the silver fix, the gold fix, DOJ abuse of banks (who may be crooks but are getting extorted, according to another article), killing Khadaffy, ousting Mubarak, Ukraine semi revolt debacle.....Geithner no tax paid, Kerry avoids yacht tax, Hilary keeps 1/2 million dollar necklace (says she will give it back)... bombing syria, not bombing isis... not securing the border, firing 8000 navy chiefs, getting hundreds of genrals to resign... not following the Constitution.. on and on....
Janet Yellen caould come out topless wearing a mink crotchless thong and pole dance.... it would be as effective as anything she will say... She knows the truth is there is NO USSA RECOVERY.... BUT SHE CANT SAY THAT SO SHE SAYS THERE IS, AND THE FED IS MONITORING THE SITUAION CLOSELY AND CONIDERING ALL APPROPRIATE ACTION, INCLUDING WHEN TO EASE LESS AND RAISE RATES.... WHICH WILL NOT HAPPEN..... CORPS BUY BACK STOCK WITH WORTHLESS DOLLARS, EARNED OR BORROWED... IMPRESS SHAREHOLDERS AND THE BEAT GOES ON... ON EMORE REV ON THE MERRYGOROUND, BUT NO REAL PROGRESS... THE GLOBE IS IN CHAOS, except in obama's tranquil(ized) one, and RACIAL CHAOS IS IN THE WORKS.... TIME TO LET MANSON OUT...