US Manufacturing PMI Surges To Over 4-Year High, Biggest Beat On Record

Tyler Durden's picture

Following July's drop in US Manufacturing PMI (and biggest miss in 11 months), August's Flash print hit 58.0 - its highest since April 2010, beating expectations of 55.7 and up from the 55.8 July final print. With China (biggest PMI miss on record) and Europe (13-month low PMI) both disappointing, the world needed some help and the US 'soft' survey offered it up in spades... Production levels surged, employment rose at the fastest pace since March 2013, and new orders picked up once again. This was the biggest beat on record - well above even the highest economist's estimate. Mission Accomplished...

Biggest beat on record - well above even the highest economist's estimate.


To April 2010 highs...


Well above even the highest economist estimate...


Highlights from the report:

  • Manufacturing PMI rebounds sharply from July’s three-month low
  • Output and new orders both rise at faster rates
  • New export business increases at steepest pace for three years
  • Employment growth accelerates to strongest since March 2013

And as Markit concludes:

“Overall, with job hiring gathering momentum and input buying expanding at the sharpest pace for at least seven years, it seems US manufacturers are increasingly confident that the recovery is firmly back on track and are gearing up for a sustained rebound in production schedules over the months ahead.”

So job done Fed, or will Yellen continue pointing out all those weaknesses we first observed in 2010 (part-time jobs, no wage growth) as the alibi for the Fed to continue pumping stocks to higher record highs before it is content that it's job here is done? More color tomorrow when Yellen speaks.

Charts: Bloomberg and Markit

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Aknownymouse's picture

Time to raise rates. Get to work Mr Chairman Yellen

BKbroiler's picture

getting harder and harder to be a doomer...

AynRandFan's picture

Yup, with the Dems in control, all you need is borrowed time, borrowing on time, and a complicit Fed printing money.

BKbroiler's picture

I'm pretty sure the Fed is going to run their scam regardless of which team is in office.   Republicans do favors for the rich, Democrats do favors for the poor, both at the expense of the middle class. 

Save_America1st's picture

what is America producing these days?  Record amounts of guns and ammo (and subsequent sales of) which has most likely become our most successful industry over the last 6 years.

I'd sure like to know just what other manufacturing is occuring that's worthwhile.  Seems like we do best at producing sheep-tards in the schools and fat asses for the FSA at record numbers these days.

Sure....GM can crank out shitty cars by the millions...but channel stuffing them in lots all over the country isn't exactly a sign of a successful business model for GM or the country. 

BKbroiler's picture

Call me crazy, but I don't have a problem with us being the #1 arms manufacturer and dealer.  Some countries are really good at building bridges and making cars, we're good at blowing shit up.  

Old man gotta be the old man, fish gotta be the fish. Gotta be what you are in this world.

Save_America1st's picture

oh believe me...the reason I mentioned arms and ammo manufacturing is because I'm one of their biggest customers! haha

But other than that, I can see nothing worthwhile.  If they're trying to consider makes Apple iDiot phones an actual "American" made product just because R&D is based in the U.S. then they're smoking some seriously potent ganja from the Mile High City.

But I wouldn't put it past them to lie about numbers like that....they lie and manipulate every other major economic indicator as well as every market, so why in the hell should any of us believe this number today????? 

I call bullshit on all of it.

BKbroiler's picture

I'm one of their biggest customers! haha   +1

I hear ya, me too.  Except here in the city I'm required to personally petition Governor Cuomo for each round I purchase, have it approved by city council, and fire it off under the supervision of a certified nanny state official, who will make sure I don't recycle the casings as that could be interpreted as self-sufficiency, which has been outlawed in all 5 boroughs.

BrosephStiglitz's picture

So.. everyone's PMIs are going up despite the creditor-debtor loop coming unhinged?  Smells like war is on the horizon boys.

XRAYD's picture

All those cars!  Beep Beep!

LawsofPhysics's picture

You see that 51-58 "trend" Janet?  That is what those of us who produce real goods and services call compressing margins.

Go ahead, raise rates.

tick tock

BKbroiler's picture

I hope they do raise rates, and soon.  House prices will go down and those of us who save money instead of borrowing it can grab cash deals.  Let's get Volcker on this asap, 17%!

wonderatitall's picture

lies, all lies! there are no...i mean recovery for everyone in time to elect the next batch of democrat criminals

sharonsj's picture

As opposed to the next batch of Republican criminals?  At least the Dems are not looneytunes about women and birth control.

RiskyBidness's picture

Just when you think it cant get any more rediculous.......Unreal!!  

Jim Shoesesta's picture

BUY GOLD, the end is near!  


Bay of Pigs's picture

Yeah, and inflation is "well contained" below 2% too.

madbraz's picture

Markit = bankers

youngman's picture

Well if you learned Econ 101 in College..this means growth..growth means inflation...inflation means PMs should be going up in price....NOT ANYMORE....econ 101 is dead...its whatever the FED wants now....

RaceToTheBottom's picture

Apparently  you now need a PHD and a Nobel Prize to understand Economics....

juggalo1's picture

New high on the S&P.  ZH doomers gnash their teeth in rage.

toros's picture

Are they counting Face Book page views as exports?

KansasCrude's picture

OMG I am on the floor laughing this headline needs to join Checks in the Mail, and I won't cum in your mouth......The desperation has surpassed the reeks zone.

As a Purchasing Professional since 1980 I am so embarrassed at the complicity of my trade....somewhere there are a bunch of whores playing with numbers.....

Hohum's picture

Why complain?  The credit/debt still flows.  Things will be fine until they aren't  Hope endures.

Tenshin Headache's picture

Philly Fed 28, expected was 19.5

SanfordandSon's picture

Elections just be round da corner, illementary...

AynRandFan's picture

The oil sector is booming.

KansasCrude's picture

ARF fixed it for you don't know if you were sarc or not

The oil sector WAS booming. 

Even before the engineered price crash the profits were deceiving to not....Train Wreck and BTW U.S. crude inventories declined again this week.  I think thats like 7 of the last 8 weeks.  Unless propane is what everyone is using to power there cars the reality is different from preceptions.

Quinvarius's picture

The second the Money Velocity stops dropping, and either levels or rises, we will be in deep inflationary shit.  It is figured with the last step being a division by the quantity of money.  So it will always drop when printing outpaces spending.  And we did a lot of printing.  If it starts hitting the economy and showing up in Velocity, the meaning of it will be far worse than it looks on the chart.

BKbroiler's picture

I don't know man, you called a top on here over a month ago...

"I think the market will start to crash tomorrow" 7/14/14

If inflation was on the horizon, gold and oil would be going up.  Instead it's going down because the dollar is crushing all other currencies.  I'm no econ PHD, but a strong dollar means lower prices on most goods since we import so much, so deflation looks a lot more likely than inflation.  

Monty Burns's picture

What do you call an economist with a forecast?  Wrong.

Even though I respect ZH it's also been wrong, seeing every bit of bad data as the start of the apocalypse.  Yet things always rebound.  Been going on for years.  How long can this insanity last?

juggalo1's picture

The funny part is that this is really good data, and they still see it as bad.  Because the numbers are all lies.  LIES I tell you.

GodHelpAmerica's picture

Quite a few guys, I can't remember their names, mentioned that the manipulation of the data would go into hyper-drive in the second half--it appears they will be correct.

These morons at the fed really need to consider the implications of the chasm that exists between reality and the macro data, which is being perceived by a growing number of people. This is a confidence-based system, and their desperate attempts to prop it up, are gradually undermining that confidence. We have numerous asset bubbles out there at the moment, and all are being supported by a bubble in fed confidence. When the bubble in fed confidence implodes, the dollar and all other REAL asset prices will immediately follow, but probably not a second sooner, barring an exogenous black-swan type event.


starman's picture

Well Target's 62% revenue loss must be do to empty shelfs so they need more stuff! Get it?  

Also now that Walmart "promised" all check out tellers will be operating people will be swarming to buy and spend! 

Or not!  

thethirdcoast's picture

I work at a firm that does light electronics manufacturing in Western NY, and we are looking at a terrible FY15.


This tells me TPTB are not even trying to pretend anymore.

Stumpy4516's picture

Just lies to help the Dem politicians in upcoming elections, and it is only the start.  The dirty tricks that will be played have barely begun.  The IRS type abuse will be more brutal and direct.  The attempted preemptive strike against Perry is just the beginning (I believe they are afraid of him running for Pres.).

One of the reasons they are so afraid is due to them raising the acceptable level of political abuse through all the govt agencies including Dept of Justice and NSA/FBI etc..  Not so much fun if it is used against them.  But if the Repubs retake control the Dems will suddenly become active antiwar activist and demonize the repubs for doing the same things Obama did, Greenpeace will become active within the US boundaries and so on (PINK will march).

Not that I like Perry, did he not try to pass state legislation that would force school girls to be injected with the so called HPV vaccine?  Not sure how he avoids that blunder when on the national scene and not just Texas.  And if the repubs do retake, they will raise the level of acceptable abuse even higher.

This time the NSA type information will be accessed by the ruling party to further political party agendas.

Conax's picture

Everything's all better. Now you can vote for me, your incumbent democrat, with confidence.

When I snap my fingers you will wake up, feeling relaxed and happy.

1, 2, 3..

RaceToTheBottom's picture

I would have thought the graph would have been more smoothed.  

sharonsj's picture

How do you have new orders both plunging and rising steeply at the same time?  You can't.  Geez, they can't even get their lies straight.

Monty Burns's picture

You'll find out when they issue the revised numbers.