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Wall Street's Take On Jackson Hole: "Yellen Was Not Dovish Enough"
Confused by what Janet Yellen said? As it turns out, so is everyone else, where the prevailing sentiment across the sell-side analysts was that Yellen was not dovish enough. Then again, with expectations bordering on Yellen giving the "BTFATH" green light, there is no way she was not going to disappoint...
First, and foremost, we start with the firm whose former employee runs the operational branch, i.e., the New York office, of the Fed, Goldman Sachs:
Goldman (Jan Hatzius):
- We think the tone from Chair Yellen's Jackson Hole speech was broadly balanced, perhaps slightly more so than in past speeches.
- She noted both the more rapid-than-expected pace of recent labor market improvement, as well the still-significant level of labor underutilization.
- She continued to emphasize the "dashboard" approach to assessing the state of the labor market, while at the same time stressing uncertainties in determining exactly how much slack remains in labor markets and how price and wage developments should be interpreted.
And the rest of the sell-side, via Bloomberg:
Barclays (Michael Gapen)
- Don’t see Yellen core views as having changed but rather see shift in tone as “normal evolution” as Fed is closer to achieving dual mandate
- Discussion on wages signals Fed not looking for 3-4% wage growth as precondition to raise rates
- Maintain view first rate hike to come in June 2015
Scotiabank (Guy Haselmann)
- Yellen’s speech “was very balanced,” seemed more ambiguous about how much slack there is in U.S. economy
- “She had more confidence about the amount of slack in the economy before, and today she admitted that it is difficult to gauge. So the speech was a bit less dovish than expectations”
Deutsche Bank (Alan Ruskin)
- Very balanced nature of Yellen speech a disappointment to those who expected her to live up to dovish reputation
- Surprised by more hawkish tone on wages; seemed reluctant to use soft real wages as gauge of labor market slack
- “This was not a speech from a policy maker who was making a strong argument to ‘wait and see the whites of the eyes of inflation’ before reacting”
Brean (Russ Certo)
- Yellen’s speech hints at “tightening faster” rather than later
- “My takeaway is that she used to think there was X% of slack in the labor force,” now has revised her estimates “so we now have less than X%”
GMP (Adrian Miller)
- Yellen “not dovish enough,” bond investors having “modest temper tantrum”
- Nod to troubles measuring slack “could be considered somewhat more hawkish than her previous firmer views”
Capital Economics (Paul Dales)
- Yellen doesn’t seem to have changed view there’s still “significant” slack in labor market
- If FOMC minutes signaled Fed was 2 steps closer to hiking rates, Yellen’s speech could be seen as taking one step back
CRT (Ian Lyngen)
- Yellen seems more comfortable with idea that some of labor market utilization may be structural as well as cyclical
Renaissance Macro (Neil Dutta)
- There’s risk of earlier rate increases, given uncertainty cited by Yellen on conditions that will gave way to rising wages and what that means for inflation
- Even so, markets are very confident that speed, end- point of tightening cycle will be “slow and low” and that Fed will start in mid-to-late 2015
- “In some respects, the markets continue to ignore Yellen”
* * *
The irony, of course, is that all of the above are simply conusing what Yellen said with something totally different, namely the market's reaction to headlines out of the Ukraine. But in the New Normal nothing really matters or makes sense any more.
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Moar Kool-Aid over here please. We want MOAR!
<Don't make me angry. You'll regret it.>
A whole lot of words... saying nothing. What does this mean: "broadly balanced, perhaps slightly more so than in past speeches"? Just what does that mean? It can mean anything or nothing at all.
I see slack. I hear slack, never tasted it though. Hey Slackers - cut me some slack.
There. Can I be Fed ChairMAN?
didn't she wink, and say, 'don't you worry now wall street, mama fed, er belgium, got you some QE coming"....
I bet you 2 Billion Dollars everything will be ok http://www.thedailysheeple.com/a-repeat-of-black-wednesday-soros-bets-2-...
"When you think it's a market, but it's not. It's all wrong". Sung to that 60's jingle for that fake-butter margarine Chiffon "When you think it's butter but it's not" it's Chiffon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLrTPrp-fW8
The art of selling 'nothing' is to convince you it is not only 'something', but something of great value. That way you bypass the question of "Is it real" and proceed directly to "I want".
<Central Banking Salesmanship 101>
Marketing no longer sells the product they sell the experience...
Sell the sizzle, not the steak.
I laughed when I read that word salad too! Bunch of nonsense...then the computers analyze every word like old mystics reading goat entrails.
We want MOAR FREE MONEY you fat slob!
Comply Immediately!!!!!
(this has been a public service announcement from your National Bank Association)
Bubblecult stocks all higher- NFLX now at $475- it's a freakshow
Elsewhere, Glenn Beck decides he's no longer conservative:
http://tinyurl.com/pxakwg3
Glenn Beck knows better than most not to bite the handlers who picked him up in drug rehab and keep his heroin flowin.
Goddamn! Any more 'Dovish' and she'd be a chikadee!
Yellen didn't put out.
Deflated markets.
Now we deal with the angst.
FED needs moar, moar, moar....fluffer.
Maybe get a tag-team going with Christine Leg-arde.
As if none of the above didn't have a per-screening script...
Holy moly, they talk like politicians.
LOL not dovish enough - years and years of trillions gushing out of the huge Fed pipe to the big banks - they are all drunk on QE and floating while the average person is left high and dry
Tripping balls on QE
Golly, it's just like when Greenspan used to say nothing. Can we start calling Janet "The Mystro" yet?
She needs a shroud and a large glowing ball to look into, as she strokes her fingers over it and peers deep inside. She is a perfect fit.
It might stimulate something as the world economy heads into Babylon.
These clowns could make pouring a glass of water like building a hydrogen fuel cell...
Translation; Where's our monetary heroin, we don't care who's ass you have to take it out of Janet!!!
liberals destroying our country also need moar $
http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/the-boys-of-summer-july-s-bigges...
Just the (D)umbasses are destroying the country? Not the (R)etards?
Obama is the MOST CORPORATIST Dem in fking history, WTF are you spoutin, NOT?
It is just the same old Red Team/Blue Team bullshit.
Maybe he will wake the fuck up and understand that THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS.
If he is too lame to see that after the REPUBLICAN LEAD HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES FUNDED OBAMACARE LAST OCTOBER then if he just another lost and deluded Prole.
Maybe he will fuckin' wake up. Maybe.
Get it right next time old Yeller! You know where your bread is buttered.
Sell signal. The rally has officially ended just like in 2008. Bad juju on the street of walls everywhere!
Yellen can't raise rates as much as she can't dictate higher wages.
Mid-term election market crash. It is predictable.
Wrong, no crash without a major false flag first.
take your pick of the CIA created litter
The fed will blame first, no crash (robbery) until it goes viral.
She didn't even tighten her sphinkter!
To me, this is what a loss of CB credibility looks like. No one believes they will raise rates.
Nasdaq thinks she was plenty dovesh-sky
So... you can taper a ponzi? Hmmm. That's why Missouri is the "show me" state. The Fed's now in a state of shome.... Think of it as an Indian Reservation where you don't need an App like Open Table. There's no going "off the reservation" without going off entirely. Cue Economist Mag "money as a technology" meme.
Meanwhile the NASDAQ is climbing again...
Russell up on the day.
S&P and Dow heading back to unchanged.
DavidC
Well, the strength of the DowBuck is based on the full faith and credit of the Federal Reserve.
You can buy a nice car for only 2 DowBucks now.
What can possibly go wrong? Markets (and all analysts) expected a more dovish tone, so Yellen must have misspoken here. That's because the marktets are always right...
I'll reiterate what I wrote yesterday, as it seems to be the case. Not only that, it makes good sense for Yellen to talk diplomatically to the markets while independently pursuing a course of tightening.
I don't think you can put this all on "political leadership" when the politicians are puppets for the banks.
now about those derivatives...
http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/ID/2492785815/
Dr. Engali
You want a false flag. I give you a false flag and a little bit Moar.
V. Putin (remember it's Friday. I got all weekend and I already bought my Puts)
Good luck with that. BTW, no where in my post does it say that I want a false flag. It's justa statement about how the real world works.
It's just like selling AIR.
You need air. The Fed wishes to control air.
Fuck you Central Planning, the gravy train is over. I could of followed suit in acquiring shit at ZIRP. I did the opposite, payed everything in cash. Fuck sticks like yourself have no morals.
The only loser in the game is you. Why? I cut out the banking middle man collecting projected interest payments to white wash ledger bookings.
Raise the interest rate to 7%. Watch the freeloaders howl.
So what Wall St is really irked about is the headlines weren't planned properly for most efficient market skimming....they got caught long I guess.
THEY KNOW NOTHING! NOTHING! (drool)
Too be fleeced and unite .
/sarc
Forbes will print a article about how they lost 70% of American Millionaire's over Federal Reserve decision to increase rates.
/hahahahaahaa, you really cannot make up this shite.
oh for godness sake, this is a woman who lost the plot decades ago. This is sophistry - financial quackery. She has no fucking idea what is going on, or why, or what to do about it.
Just count on Fischer doing what he can to steer the ship into the iceberg in such a way as to help those nearest and dearest to his heart. He is an arch-criminal, and likely calling the shots.
Be nice to have the NSA wire on his ass...
I need to know: What's Joe LaVorgna think?
Raise those Interest Rates to 5% tomorrow.
If you cannot do that I will be happy with a Percentage Point for starts...TODAY.
FED waiting for the Draghi effect, post-effect, and Monday (after this Ukraine weekend). Then FED will dial it in....hopefully sooner than later.
Fuck Wall Street.
Will this make the Jr. bankers salary increase only 24%?