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Scottish Independence 'Yes' Vote Is A "High Risk" Event, Citi Warns

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A "Yes" vote for Scottish independence represents a "high risk" event according to Citi's Michael Saunders. With the so-called 'neverendum' now less than a month away, Citi continues to highlight three particular concerns if Scotland does vote for independence: Scotland’s relatively weak fiscal position, Scotland’s large banking system and uncertainties over the currency arrangements of an independent Scotland. The Scottish Government seems to be seeking a policy of "sterlingisation" - which even their economic advisors judge "is not likely to be a long-term solution." For now a "no" vote is most likely, however, even if the Scottish referendum does not pass, the UK political landscape is likely to remain in a state of flux.

 

Via Citi,

The referendum on Scottish independence will be held on September 18 this year, with a simple Yes/No vote on the question “Should Scotland be an independent country?” A simple majority of eligible votes will suffice to win. All parties involved have agreed to accept the result as binding. In the event of a “yes” vote, there will be negotiations between the UK and Scottish governments over the details for Scotland’s independence, with any actual move to independence probably taking place during 2016-19.

The potential problems that might face Scotland if it becomes independent have come into sharper focus.

First, the relative weakness of Scotland’s fiscal position is clearer. We judged back in March that the fiscal deficit of an independent Scotland (as a share of GDP) would be 2-3 percent of GDP above the UK average in coming years. This reflects Scotland’s relatively high level of public spending per head and the diminishing offset from oil and gas tax revenues, which are trending down amidst falling output and rising production costs. Data since then highlight this issue. Profits (ie revenues less operating costs and capital costs) from oil and gas production in Scotland (including a geographic split of oil and gas) have fallen from £14.0bn in 2011 to £7.2bn in 2013.

 

 

In turn, Scotland’s aggregate tax revenues (including a geographic share of oil and gas tax revenues) fell by 2.1% in 2013 after a 2.0% drop in 2012, with oil and gas tax revenues down 37% YoY in 2013 after a 24% drop in 2012. Scotland’s oil and gas tax revenues in 2013 totaled just £4.4bn (3.0% of Scotland’s nominal GDP), down from £9.2bn in 2011 and the lowest as a share of Scotland’s nominal GDP since 1999. Aggregate UK receipts of Petroleum Revenue Tax fell a further 42% YoY in January-July this year, although data for receipts of oil-related Corporation Tax (which recently have been larger than PRT) are not yet available.

 

Second, the referendum campaign has not dispelled uncertainties over Scotland’s possible currency policy. The SNP’s stated aim is to seek a formal currency union with the rest of the UK, while taking over a proportion of the UK national debt (either the population or GDP share, it would make little difference).

 

However, the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems have all ruled out a currency union. This point has been strengthened by the recent report from the UK Parliament’s Scottish Affairs Committee, which concluded that “a currency union between the continuing UK and a separate Scotland would not work well for either country. Scotland would be tied to an exchange rate which became less and less suitable for its economy, and heavily constrained in its economic policy. Without a banking and fiscal union, and the political union which is essential to sustain it, such a currency union would be unstable.”

 

The SNP does seem to have a Plan B, which is an informal policy of “sterlingisation” — whereby an independent Scotland would unilaterally adopt sterling as its currency without a formal currency union with the UK — while not accepting any obligation for Scotland’s share of the UK national debt. As SNP leader Alex Salmond recently argued: “There is literally nothing anyone can do to stop an independent Scotland using sterling, which is an internationally tradeable currency... Assets and liabilities go hand in hand, and no one would expect Scotland to pick up a share of the debt if we were being denied a share of the assets.”

 

However, sterlingisation would have considerable disadvantages for Scotland in our view, in that an independent Scotland would have no say in the monetary policy of the rest of the UK (rUK). In addition, while the BoE does regular sterling operations with a wide range of banks in respect of their UK business, Scotland’s banking system would have no guaranteed access to a lender of last resort facility or provider of emergency liquidity. The BoE’s adoption of a formal mission statement (“Promoting the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability”) makes it clear that the BoE’s responsibilities are limited to the economic and financial stability of the UK. The BoE is not responsible for the monetary and financial stability of any country (including an independent Scotland) that is pursuing a sterlingisation policy (although it might have to offset the effects on the rUK of any Scottish-related instability).

 

The experience of EMU crisis countries in recent years - until Draghi’s “whatever it takes” commitment made it clear that the ECB would seek to ensure financial stability in the periphery - highlights the possible dangers that could face an independent Scotland pursuing sterlingisation. Indeed, the Scottish government’s own Fiscal Commission has suggested that sterlingisation is unlikely to be a durable framework: “International evidence suggests that informal monetary unions tend to be adopted by transition economies or small territories with a special relationsip with a larger trading partner (e.g. between the UK and Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man). Advanced economies of a significant scale tend not to operate in such a monetary framework. Though an option in the short-term, it is not likely to be a long-term solution.”4 The National Institute recently reached the same conclusion, arguing that sterlingisation probably would not be viable for long, especially given Scotland’s large banking sector5. In our view, it is astonishing that the Scottish government, in seeking independence, has reached this stage without a clear plan for an issue as basic as its currency and monetary policy setup.

 

Third, there continue to be uncertainties over the large Scottish banking system, with assets in excess of 1000% (one thousand per cent) of Scotland’s annual GDP and including large businesses in the rest of the UK. If these businesses remain Scottish-based, then the potential costs if the Scottish government has to provide a bail-out or deposit guarantee insurance could threaten Scotland’s fiscal position. However, as the National Institute warns, regulatory pressures might force these banks to re-domicile to the UK: “the Prudential Regulatory Authority is likely to require a systemically important bank carrying out its business in sterling to be based in the UK… The regulatory and commercial interests both suggest that at least the two government part-owned banks would redomicile into the rest of the UK.” Of course, if those banks were to relocate to the UK to gain a more secure fiscal backstop, Scotland’s economy and labour market would probably suffer.

Perhaps in light of these issues, the latest Scottish Social Attitudes survey shows that while a large majority of Scots still believe independence would lead to increased pride in their country, there are growing worries that independence would reduce Scotland’s voice in the world, harm the economy, increase income inequality, reduce the safety of bank deposits and harm peoples own financial position. The SSA survey suggests that the preferred option among Scottish voters is for increased devolution within the UK rather than independence outside the UK.

Opinion Polls Still Point to a “No” Vote

Although there is considerable variation among individual polls, we have not changed our base case scenario that a "yes" vote for Scottish independence remains a low probability, high risk event.
 

But What if... Some Possible Implications Of a “Yes” Vote

Nevertheless, even if a ”yes” vote looks unlikely at present, it is not impossible. In our view, a “yes” vote would have several key implications:

Bad for UK growth. Uncertainties over the economic prospects, policies and currency arrangements of an independent Scotland probably would hit growth in both Scotland and the rest of the UK (rUK), raising the incentive for firms to “wait and see” or to expand elsewhere. Exports to Scotland account for roughly 4% of GDP for the rUK and Scotland would immediately be the rUK’s second biggest trading partner, slightly behind the US and slightly above Germany. Moreover, many banks and businesses have sizeable cross-border exposures between Scotland and rUK, and some firms may seek to limit such exposure as a hedge against the possible breakup of sterlingisation (if that is the policy adopted).

 

Bad for mainstream UK political parties, good for the anti-EU vote. Once independence happens, Scottish MPs would no longer attend or vote at the Westminster parliament. This would disproportionately hurt both Labour and the Lib Dems: Scotland accounts for 9% of seats at the Westminster parliament (59 out of 650 seats in 2010), but accounts for 16% of Labour seats, and 19% of Lib Dem seats. Conversely, only one out of the 306 Conservative MPs elected in 2010 is from a Scottish seat. However, although the maths of a postindependence Parliament would favour the Conservatives, we believe a “yes” vote would also badly hurt the personal position of PM Cameron, by making him the PM “who lost the UK”. The key winner in UK political terms would probably be UKIP: this reflects the damage to the three main Westminster parties, the evidence that voters are prepared to reject the establishment and vote for radical change, and also the extent to which the themes in the Scottish referendum debate — a choice between membership of a larger bloc or independence — are likely to have echoes in any future EU referendum. A secondary winner might be London Mayor Boris Johnson, who seems to be positioning himself as the radical outsider as candidate to succeed Cameron as Conservative party leader.

 

Uncertainties are likely to drag on for a while. The Scottish government has said that in the event of a “yes” vote, it would aim to complete negotiations quickly and for Scotland to become independent in March 201611, ahead of the Scottish parliament elections scheduled for May 2016. In practice, the process might well take longer, especially given the interruption of the UK general election in May 2015 and possibility that the election might change the UK government. Indeed, given that Labour has now moved slightly ahead of the SNP in voting intentions for the Scottish parliament in recent YouGov polls, one can imagine scenarios under which negotiations on Scottish independence have to be completed after May 2016 under a Labour-led Scottish government (which opposed independence), a Labour-led rUK government and with a Johnson-led Conservative party in opposition that is moving towards advocating EU exit.

 

BoE on the alert: BoE Governor Carney noted in his Inflation Report press conference that the BoE would be ready to act if Scotland-related uncertainties escalate: “we also have responsibilities, as you know, for financial stability in the United Kingdom and we will continue to discharge those responsibilities until they change... Uncertainty about the currency arrangements could raise financial stability issues. We will, as you would expect us to have contingency plans for various possibilities”.

*  *  *

With a “no” vote, the UK would still face rising political uncertainties. The UK political landscape is in a state of extreme flux, with the enduring Scottish independence movement, the rise of UKIP as a political force and resultant change in UK party political dynamics, the moderate-to-high probability of a change of government in the 2015 elections and uncertainties over post-election fiscal policy, plus the non-negligible risk of a referendum on UK exit from the EU in 2017-18 or so. Even if the “no” camp prevails in September, we do not foresee a return to the pre-referendum political status quo in the UK. In our view, the outlook for UK political risks will remain elevated well beyond the referendum, and we suspect these UK political risks are underpriced in markets.

More broadly, "Referendum Risk" is one of the more powerful manifestations of what we have termed Vox Populi risk, the Crimea being a particularly powerful, if extreme, example. In particular, what happens in Scotland will be particularly closely watched in Spain, which is facing a referendum on Catalan independence. Latent independence movements elsewhere, such as Belgium, could also be influenced by the outcome in Scotland. We regard the revival of local/national concerns, from Scotland to Spain and beyond, as part of continuing anti-establishment sentiment and a backlash against globalisation. And the UK experience (with growing support for UKIP alongside faster economic growth) raises the issue that economic recovery alone may not be enough to reverse the rise in anti-elite, anti-establishment sentiment.

 

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Sat, 08/23/2014 - 15:41 | 5134834 Da Yooper
Da Yooper's picture

If they vote yes

 

just think of all the US financial aid it would qualify for

 

that alone should give Scotland's bankers a never ending hard on

 

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 15:45 | 5134855 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Let's hear it for Freeeee-Duuumb!

USA!  USA!  USA!

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 15:53 | 5134879 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

It'll be a sheep fucking good time!!!

 

 

RIPS

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:19 | 5134934 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

< Yes

< No   (But if you throw in some good-looking sheep it's a done deal)

“Should Scotland be an independent country with free haggis and whiskey for all?"

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:20 | 5134961 knukles
knukles's picture

The Scots invented scotch, haggis and television.
What could be better than that?

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:24 | 5134973 Jstanley011
Jstanley011's picture

And scotch tape, don't forget the scotch tape. And bagpipes, don't forget the uh... nevermind...

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 18:16 | 5135247 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

A vote for moving to a smaller political subdivision is NOT a vote for freedom, but it is a move in the right direction.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 19:33 | 5135436 jarana
jarana's picture

Good one.

But one should walk on eggshells here.

Nationalism is a double-edged sword. It's good if, as you say, takes people to a less powerful government, or releases people from tyranny. But nationalism is prone to end in colectivism, specially when some "racial", "historical" or stuff like that are in play, deviating the focus from the individual (the only "social" fact that realy exists).

I was born in the Basque Country. Nationalism and independentism against Spain is strong there, and not all that glitters is gold in "heroic" nationalisms against "the invader". At the same time, decentraliced economies and societies with "overlaped" and plural identities are better places for freedom in my view.

Anyway, the way you refer to it, "a smaller political subdivision", makes me believe that none of the considerations above apply to you. So just digressing...

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 20:22 | 5135567 espirit
espirit's picture

Profits are dropping below output, which in the past has run parallel.

Methinks someones' skimming...

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:26 | 5134977 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

The gay Scotsman, walking through the jungle, was hoping for a monsoon.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:27 | 5134980 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

I went to Edinburgh University back in the early 90s and spent most of my time at Grayfriers Bobby , they know how to drink , unlike England the pubs stay open to 2 am , so did not see many morning classes but had great fun.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 19:08 | 5135385 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Finally! Mel Gibson can be seen in public in more than just Thailand!

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:21 | 5134967 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

Wait until Scotland starts trading oil for gold.

Major ISIS problems coming to Edinburgh.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:02 | 5135087 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Stop it, Pinto. Stop the politically correct hidden terms. It's called a "Muslim Problem". And on this side of the pond, we can still, (at least for now), say it. Edinburg has a Muslim problem. So does Londonstan, Parisstan, Brusselsstan, Berlinstan and Copenhagenstan, (not to mention Malmo, Vienna and most of Italy).

Islam is facism. It's the cult of booty. It's about who is the strongest man and how long can he hold power. Everything else is permissible, from murder, to rape, looting, extortion and deceit. Because that is exactly what the "Prophet" did, and he is still today the epitome of how Muslim men should behave, (at least according to the Qur'an and the ahaditha(s).

Your daddy, or your granddaddy or even his daddy fought facism. Theirs was cloaked in national socialism. Now it's our turn and ours wears the cloak of situational theology. Just as your forefathers wanted no part of their fight, (but did it anyway because it had to be done), the time is coming when all of us will have to step up. The sooner we wrap our brains around that reality the sooner we can end it, because if we don't stop it, we will have to either surrender, convert or die. Those are the only choices we will have.

Just remember this: Good Muslims=kills infidels; Bad Muslims=have infidel friends. And yes, that's in the Qur'an too.

Qur'an (5:51) - "O you who believe! do not take the Jews and the Christians for friends; they are friends of each other; and whoever amongst you takes them for a friend, then surely he is one of them; surely Allah does not guide the unjust people."

Qur'an (5:80) - "You will see many of them befriending those who disbelieve; certainly evil is that which their souls have sent before for them, that Allah became displeased with them and in chastisement shall they abide."  Those Muslims who befriend unbelievers will abide in hell.

Qur'an (3:28) - "Let not the believers Take for friends or helpers Unbelievers rather than believers: if any do that, in nothing will there be help from Allah: except by way of precaution, that ye may Guard yourselves from them..."  This last part means that the Muslim is allowed to feign friendship if it is of benefit.  Renowned scholar Ibn Kathir states that "believers are allowed to show friendship outwardly, but never inwardly."

 

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:04 | 5135098 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

Radicalized muslims like ISIS only seem to get US / NATO funding & training when they are at or near oil producing countries.

 

 

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 02:03 | 5136358 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

Have you ever met or talked with a Muslim? Just curious. As mentioned in another thread, I have some progressive friends who are deathly afraid and prejudiced against what they call "radical muslims" and yet they have never known a muslim, much less a radical one.

If there are radical muslims, then I suspect that they have the same sociopathic disease that affects the US government and technocrats worldwide. Does that make them sane or insane?

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 10:10 | 5136806 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

The term "radical Muslim" is a misnomer. Nidal Malik Hasan, former US Army medical doctor and psychiatrist, was not considered a "radical Muslim" right up to the day he murdered 13 of his fellow servemen. And that's the rub. Islam allows something called Taqiyya. It's basically a Mulligan to lie to non-Muslims. There are no non-radical Muslims. There are just Muslims who have not "radicalized", as it were. Members of the cult of Mohammad, however benign in appearance, worship at the altar of the concept that murder, rape, extortion, theft and brutality are acceptable means to either force others to believe, deprive them of half of their possessions or, if all else fails, kill them. I know that implying that the "US government and technocrats worldwide" do the same comes off glib, but I don't see either engaging in what ISIS is doing or what Islam teaches. Well, not at least not yet. That said, it's still very early in the game.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 13:47 | 5137340 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Yes remember they are human beings not animals. These problems ultimately root from within humans and as such people are the root problem and the solution. The ideology, religion is just a way that problem manifests itself as. Remember these things are human created ideas and such.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 14:43 | 5137501 strangewalk
strangewalk's picture

I knew a couple of Pakistani guys in Hong Kong who hated Americans, Christians and Jews...they tolerated me but told me to be careful--lots of Muslims in Hong Kong. Then, a Muslim clerk at a 7-11 store told me there should be an overthrow of the US government for allowing people to buy beer and wine, he was serious. Another Muslim guy with his own little store said that if a Jew came in he would kill him. Some friends of mine talked about having lunch at the Holiday Inn in Riyadh...at the request of other patrons the waiters had to put room dividers all around their table so the Muslims wouldn't become despoiled. 

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:12 | 5135108 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

"Islam is facism. It's the cult of booty. It's about who is the strongest man and how long can he hold power. Everything else is permissible, from murder, to rape, looting, extortion and deceit."

It is also the default operating system the entire planet has been operating on for pretty much the past several thousand years...

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 19:48 | 5135474 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Nonsense. You confuse facism with capitalism. Islam has turned facism into a religion. It prohibits discussion and dissent. Capitalism is an all-volunteer endeavor. Nobody holds a gun to your head and forces you to do business, (except the US government lately).

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 14:48 | 5137512 strangewalk
strangewalk's picture

Are you kidding? How about all those pagan worshippers in Latin America who were saved by the Church?

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 19:26 | 5135427 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

There might also be written some where that people who deal in FIAT can never be your friend.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 19:49 | 5135476 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

Speaking of situation theology, I like the Cult of Booty part

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 10:14 | 5136818 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

 

 

 

Oh...

Helll...

YES!!!!!

http://youtu.be/SvPwRPxe1h0

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 13:47 | 5137339 Lord Wakefield
Lord Wakefield's picture

An eye opening book on the use of Pedoephilia amd sexual explotation by IslamoFacists in UK society. Pretty much applies to most European cities.

http://lawandfreedomfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Easy-Meat-...

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:39 | 5135031 adeptish
adeptish's picture

Whiskey is Irish.

Whisky is Scottish.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:58 | 5135085 css1971
css1971's picture

You ... realise that you are talking about an accident of spelling. The word is the same, means the same and comes from the same origin.

Scots and Irish whiskies are made in almost exactly the same way.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 19:21 | 5135409 August
August's picture

And let's not even talk about wódka.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:48 | 5135061 Democratic koolaid
Democratic koolaid's picture

Scotland makes $4 billion annualy from whisky alone...

http://reidfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Whisky-and-the-Scottish-Economy-BiGGAR-Economics-Nov12.pdf

The modern world was created by the Scottish and it now needs Scotlands to be free to save it.

 

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 03:34 | 5136441 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Molon Labe!

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 15:42 | 5134841 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Just another nation for the Rothschild banksters to milk and kill.

An American, not US subject.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 18:09 | 5135229 DetectiveStern
DetectiveStern's picture

Rather live in an Idenpendent Scotland than a United Kingdom...

 

...An Englishman.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 21:39 | 5135749 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Guillotine the Rothschild central banksters and you won't have to move.

Ditto the American people.

An American, not US subject.

 

"Guillotine the Fed!"

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 13:53 | 5137363 Lord Wakefield
Lord Wakefield's picture

It won't be an independent Scotland. An "Independence" with-in the EU will mean a steady erosion of power from Edinburgh to Brussels over the next generation. While at the same time using the GBP be a lackey to BOE and under the Euro to the ECB. Alex Samond is a opportunist shister who relies on romantic nationalism to fulfil his own egotistical need for power. 

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 15:45 | 5134845 Coletrane
Coletrane's picture

freedom and independence neccessitate responsibility and hard work.

 few people in today's world are courageous enough to make the leap.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 15:57 | 5134893 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

I disagree. Many people are.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:21 | 5134966 knukles
knukles's picture

Oh yeah?  Well my many is bigger than your many.
Nah na na na nah na

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 01:52 | 5136335 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

Yes, I have a small many ... but it make up for it by not lasting very long.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:47 | 5135191 rbg81
rbg81's picture

Actually, I'm kind of envious.  Wish that California would secede from the Union.  Even better, I wish we could vote to expel her.  Let the Libs get their death-wish when Mexico takes it over.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 15:50 | 5134862 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Och aye, but will HRH, QE II finally have to pay fucking taxes for her monstrous estate (Balmoral) in Scotland?

In Scots Pounds or in Gold?  Or will Scotland get another Tour from "Ben Doon and Phil McCracken"?

Scotty!?

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:01 | 5134901 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Not likely because while they may become an independent country they will remain a monarchy with the Queen as their head of state. This is the same situation as they had before their union with England in 1707 as the crowns were united 100 years earlier under James the I (VI) in 1603.

Bankruptcy forced them into union the first time and will likely again after a few decades of "independence".

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:58 | 5135210 wintermute
wintermute's picture

Scotland will never be independent until it becomes a republic.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 19:16 | 5135400 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

What's wrong with Queen?

Hell of a lot cheaper to hand out titles than to bail out Goldman Sachs that's fer sure.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 15:51 | 5134863 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

A. Scotland goes independent.
B. Scotland does an Iceland
C. Scotland immendiately becomes a target for ISIS

It would certainly expose ISIS for the false flag it is... and who is pulling its strings.

Go Scotland!!

(The problem is that it no longer matters how people vote, or who counts the vote, only who announces the vote ... and the captive MSM will be instructed to not allow a decision for independence to be announced.)

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:41 | 5135023 Democratic koolaid
Democratic koolaid's picture

The sterlng was Scotlands first.  The bank of England was founded by a Scotsman.

 

Most importantly do you all realy think the British Empire would have become "the empire the sun never set apon" without Scotlands participation? England should f-off and let Scotland be free from their decretum and destructive policys.   

Let Scotia brew their own Koolaid.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 15:50 | 5134873 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

Golf courses and a lot of sheep.  A super-power in the making.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 15:54 | 5134878 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

And oil. It could however signal a return to Silicon Glen with the right tax incentives... not having to carry the weight of parasitic banks and UK government.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:00 | 5134907 Coke and Hookers
Coke and Hookers's picture

I will gladly accept Scottish Kronur for my services.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:26 | 5135150 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

With a climate only slightly better than Icelands.

If you thought English weather sucks, try Scotland for a reference yardstick.

What going to happen to the RN SLBM base at Garelockhead, and the USN one at Holy loch ?

But I fondly remember getting my car head butted by a drunken Glaswegian falling out

of a pub.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 15:53 | 5134882 Perimetr
Perimetr's picture

Call in the IMF!

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:02 | 5134911 localspaced
localspaced's picture

I don't think they'll vote yes. But maybe they should and take the opportunity to take a new direction. These forecasts are just based on everything else remaining the same, but it won't. And it's not like the UK's future is any rosier, with it's debt, foreign entanglements and the entire country used to support the city and its rotten banks.

Citi is worried they may not able to bail out failing banks.. I think that's a good thing.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:06 | 5134919 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

If a "yes" vote could cause even a hint of irritation to the bankers, it will never happen. The idea of democracy is beautiful, but it doesn't actually exist in reality. Fucking loved Braveheart though!

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 18:10 | 5135231 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

'democracy is beautiful'. So mob rule is desirable, then? 

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 01:59 | 5136343 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

Only when compared to unelected technocrat rule... err and rule by living corposes such as David Rockefeller, George Soros and Henry Kissinger.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:07 | 5134921 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Cyprus was a bankers template. Scotland maybe a peoples template.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:10 | 5134928 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Fuck it, all they have to do is issue a currency backed by a basket of single malts.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:17 | 5134952 Jstanley011
Jstanley011's picture

THEY CAN TAKE OUR LIVES, BUT THEY WILL NEVER TAKE OUR FREEDOM!!!

What??? We'll have to go off the dole???!!!

NEVERMIND...

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:48 | 5135062 css1971
css1971's picture

Irvine Welsh pretty much hit the nail on the head.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqgkZDbe4Xk

 

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:23 | 5134968 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Well if the polling numbers are not skewed from all accounts this referendum doesn't look like it will pass but you never know considering geopolitical issues. Some geo or otherwise political hemorrhoid could flare up that swings this thing if it happens close enough to voting time.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:26 | 5134979 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

I know it is wikipedia but it is one stop reading for polling numbers sourced from various Scottish opinion polls.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independe...

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:46 | 5135057 Seahorse
Seahorse's picture

If a 'yes' vote was possible, the referendum wouldn't be allowed. It's just theatre.  

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:23 | 5134970 himaroid
himaroid's picture

Russia, now Scotland. What's up with these uppity honkys?

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:25 | 5134976 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Jail the banksters. Free yourself. May you be filled with the Holy Spirit. Govern yourself with Open Source Software. Use crypto-currencies backed by each individual citizen. Feed the geese. Tote that bar. Don't think drink. And wear some fucking pants for Chrissakes.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:27 | 5134984 sheikurbootie
sheikurbootie's picture

Scotland has far too many slugs on the dole to be "independent".  The poor will riot in the streets when the checks stop.  Scotland is too small and reliant on England to survive independently.  Total chaos.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 19:27 | 5135428 Pendolino
Pendolino's picture

We have less 'slugs' on the dole per head of population than the rest of the UK. According to the BBC news website...

14 May 2014

Unemployment in Scotland fell by 18,000 to 178,000 between January and March while employment reached its highest level since records began in 1992, according to official figures.

The jobless rate was 6.4%, which was below the average of 6.8% for the whole of the UK.

 

And there haven't been riots in Scotland since the poll tax riots back in the 80s. Unlike the 5 days of rioting in 2011 in London, Birmingham, Manchester and Bristol that left 5 dead, 186 injured, over 3000 arrests and £200 million in property damage.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:29 | 5134997 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Really? I mean, if they vote "yes" then that is high risk. But the risk that they vote "yes" is low risk. I just don't see it, too many people too deeply connected to England. Too many immigrants who are not scots and seeking Englands protection and welfare. I give it very low probability.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 18:10 | 5135204 piratepiet
piratepiet's picture

 

 

"I just don't see it,..."

Let me provide you with a lens through which to see it, Jack.

US is in decline ( yes, it is ), Europe growing ever more powerful.  The UK does not know where to turn.  East, towards its traditional ally, or West, towards continental Europe, that is so much closer geographically and seems to be regaining its status as a real power centre. 

It used to be the only major cleavage I was able to discern in the UK a few years ago, the cleavage between the pro-Europeans and anti-Europeans.  Now that cleavage seems to align itself with another cleavage, the age-old Scottish-English divide.  When several cleavages align, that gap becomes harder to bridge.  The Scots are generally pro-European, the English less so.  So in effect : the US and EU are tearing the UK apart.  

According to this theory : the more the UK drifts away from Europe, the more likely it is to split. 

 

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 18:12 | 5135236 piratepiet
piratepiet's picture

East and West should be reversed of course, sorry ( UK not the only one being confused )

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 18:15 | 5135246 falconflight
falconflight's picture

There's plenty of secessionist sentiments on the Continent; two quickly come to mind, Catalonia of Spain and in Belgium between the Flemish and I can't recall the other ethnicity..starts w/ a "W."  The Checks (SP) split, Yugoslavia obviously, and I believe that even Venice is rumbling about leaving Italy.  

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 18:21 | 5135264 piratepiet
piratepiet's picture

yes, true.  Does that invalidate what I wrote above ? 

In Europe itself too, the reality of the European Union is in my opinion one of the root causes of these secessionist movements gathering strength.  Have a guess how that could be. 

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:34 | 5135001 smacker
smacker's picture

Whatever the polls say and whatever the vested interests say, Scotland will not vote for independence. I've said this for a long time and nothing has happened to change my mind.

Reason? "People rarely bite the hand that feeds them."

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:43 | 5135046 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

People rarely bite the hand that feeds them.

And you win the prize of the day for that statement. That is how they enslave your ass once you can't feed yourself or limit the type fish you are allowed to fish for if they don't control the fishing polls.

They got you fucked over 5 ways to Sunday unless you open up the pond to competition so you don't have to fish for or eat their fish if you don't want even if you do know how to fish.

I hope people are starting to understand why centralized money is slavery. Not that you can't have centralized money but it has to only be one of the fish in the whole ecosystem not the only fish. That applys locally, regionally, nationally and globally.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:05 | 5135101 smacker
smacker's picture

Indeed. But as css1971 rightly says, Scotland is a nation of moochers.

They are overwhelmingly on the Left of politics, living off the back of England. They love having their lives ordered for them by government just so long as they get a welfare cheque. It's the Scots who go into the army in large numbers and get put on the front line. They're dispensible.

Apart from all that, Alex Salmond is a socialist buffoon who hasn't got a clue how to run a bath tap, let alone a country.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:31 | 5135157 css1971
css1971's picture

Actually the SNP are closer to classical liberal than socialist in viewpoint. Which is why they want independence. However they have to advertise their more socialist type policies to attempt to attract the majority of Scots voters.

You are absolutely right about the army. A large proportion of the British Army are Scots, and infact that photo of the ginger ISIS fighter was likely a British army special forces "advisor". Though I don't think dispensible means what you think it means.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:53 | 5135198 smacker
smacker's picture

"expendable" is the word I intended to use.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 18:50 | 5135335 Seahorse
Seahorse's picture

das gingist!

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:35 | 5135015 css1971
css1971's picture

Scotland is not going to vote yes. Scotland is a pitiful caricature of a nation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scNLfr1EP08

70 years of socialism has turned the country into a nation of moochers. Any/all talented scots or those with a bit of personal drive leave just as soon as they can.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:53 | 5135073 Seahorse
Seahorse's picture

True, and the better-off people that are left in Scotland are most against independence. They will get the tax bill for what is an East German sized public sector. 

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 18:08 | 5135227 falconflight
falconflight's picture

+1  If Scotland had to recreate all of the socially webbing, uh netting afforded by the UK, it will likely have to go full Communist; the People own everything.  Last polling that I saw earlier this month still has the noes up by about 15 points.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:38 | 5135022 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

The worst salesmanship for an arguement is using a banker.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:39 | 5135026 p00k1e
p00k1e's picture

Adam Smith was Scottish.

Don't the Scottish men were thongs or something?

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:40 | 5135033 cornflakesdisease
cornflakesdisease's picture

If they don;t have an independant central bank and their own currency, they're not free.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:46 | 5135055 CHX
CHX's picture

<<< FREEEEDOM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

<<< FREEEEDooooooohh.....     Beeeeeee..............?

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 16:53 | 5135072 adeptish
adeptish's picture

"Hey, you, get off of my cloud..." Mick Jagger

"Hey, McLeod, get off of my ewe..." Random Scotsman

 

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:00 | 5135088 Lea
Lea's picture

Want to bet they'll vote yes? or that the Brit government will back up on the referendum idea?

"If a 'yes' vote was possible, the referendum wouldn't be allowed. It's just theatre." said one person. They might have gone over-confident because of positive polls, but polls can be treacherous... which they hadn't figured out yet when they accepted the referendum idea. Since Nigel Farage got unexpected high results, they've grown anxious.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:00 | 5135090 Flybyknight
Flybyknight's picture

If Obama Abbott and now the bankers are against independance then  I am for it.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:12 | 5135116 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Unlike most ballot issues in America, the Scots kept the question short and simple. In America the lawyers would have twisted the language such that you couldn't tell whether to vote yes or no. Despite what the article says, the Scots have to realize that they are sending more money to the UK than they are getting back - and it will only get worse in the future. I expect to see a similar question on some state ballots in the US future.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:12 | 5135119 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

It dont work like that. Freedom like that? come on ffs

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:27 | 5135151 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

I highly advice the great Scottish people to join the ABF, the Anti-Bolshevik federation and stand with those who oppose the global Gaza that the New Bolsheviks have in store for us all.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:31 | 5135155 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

You wanna know what I think they should do?

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:38 | 5135167 craus
craus's picture

Scots don't have the ball sack to vote for independence.

I only hope I could wager on it. Easy money for me.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:41 | 5135175 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

Bad for the Scots

Bad for the banksters

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:43 | 5135180 vyeung
vyeung's picture

Is there a reason why all the noise is made by the banksters????

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 17:45 | 5135185 Thirtyseven
Thirtyseven's picture

Hopefully Scotland would be willing to keep the Pakis out lest their culture be destroyed, and also refrain from giving power over it's banking system to the you-know-whos...

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 14:06 | 5137393 Lord Wakefield
Lord Wakefield's picture

Not going to happen. Salmond has said on several occasions that Scotland needs immigration to survive. 

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 18:09 | 5135230 jacship
jacship's picture

SNP leader Alex Salmond recently argued: “There is literally nothing anyone can do to stop an independent Scotland using sterling, which is an internationally tradeable currency... Assets and liabilities go hand in hand, and no one would expect Scotland to pick up a share of the debt if we were being denied a share of the assets.”

Scotty: When can we get a plan like that for the states.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 18:46 | 5135320 John Wilmot
John Wilmot's picture

I hope they vote for independence.

Every time a new country is born, the odds of there being a free country somewhere in the world increase slightly.

Next up, Veneto and Catalonia!

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 18:51 | 5135336 piratepiet
piratepiet's picture

Give me an example of a free country. 

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 19:45 | 5135462 August
August's picture

Vermont, for a while.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 19:47 | 5135469 piratepiet
piratepiet's picture

Vermont, when it still was Vert Mont, french for green mountain ?

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 00:13 | 5136171 Farqued Up
Farqued Up's picture

Any government + Free Country = Oxymoron

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 13:38 | 5137326 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

Pennsylvania for a while.

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 18:56 | 5135347 adr
adr's picture

Perhaps the people of Scotland see the growing muslim and welfare problem, realizing that if something isn't done their numbers will grow so large that nothing will ever be able to be done in the future.

Like the welfare problem in the USA. Without a total revolution and race war the USA will never be able to go back. The welfare voting block is too large to overcome.

The world's different races will soon be at war with each other. 

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 19:09 | 5135388 MKD
MKD's picture

If you want to know if scotland will be become indepedant.just check out the odds

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independen...

best odds for independance is 9/2

against independance is 1/7

therefore very unlikely to vote for independance

next topic

Sat, 08/23/2014 - 20:39 | 5135603 Paigow
Paigow's picture

Hey you get offa McLeod!

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 00:10 | 5136163 Farqued Up
Farqued Up's picture

Unhook your ass from everyone, Scotland, some things are more important than listening to banks' opinions. Turn and run, you can still opt for the Euro as a currency, just decouple from the island kingdom Death Star.

In fact, I would refurbish Hadrian's wall to block England's failed immigration projects from coming up to your house. That is a ticking time bomb.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 00:19 | 5136181 talisman
talisman's picture

If Scots want to differentiate themselves
from their sheep, they will vote YES.

It is  the only possible way, remote
that it is, to cease being a vassal state
of England, which is nothing more than
a puppet state of US, which in turn is now
a total puppet state of Israel/AIPAC.
The uncontestable proof of this
is the US/zioNazi coup of Ukraine.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 07:52 | 5136586 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

what an example to the rest of the world, if yes wins, but the NWO will never allow it..they have counted the vote and NO by 2% 50 TO 52, WHAT 102% VOTED?  just ignore the math the MSM - WILL.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 08:24 | 5136623 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

As the Yes vote gathers ground, more of these suits are coming out to denounce a nation who represent a risk to their tax dodging corporate empires.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 09:36 | 5136724 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

 If Scotland wants independence then so be it, but sorting out the political and economic ties with the rest of the UK, may be difficult. Scotland has to be allowed to stand on its own two feet without the rest of the UK financially and economically supporting it. The Euro proves that more than one sovereign country cannot easily use the same currency. Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Italy and Spain have discovered that you cannot have full independence and share a currency.

Other problems exist other than the effect on the pound. If the UK Government is to agreeable to a separation, will Wales and Northern Ireland move towards independence? That might encourage similar movements in Catalonia, Belgium, Northern League in Italy, Basques, Cornish, and among the Poles.  More on the issues surrounding this issue in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/06/british-pound-and-independant-sco...

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 09:47 | 5136742 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

What is happening in Ukraine and the unrest in many areas in the world brings into focus the many conflicts that develop when a region decides to change governments often outside the recognized democratic system of voting. In some cases even after an overwhelming vote such as in Crimea the whole process is called into question.

Unfortunately the American civil war did not resolve the issue of succession forever and definitely was not a template for a solution that should be used in countries across the planet. Bottom-line many in politics are slow to give up control and this will not change. I do not think Obama needs to weigh in on this or threaten Scottland with sanctions at this time.(sarcasm)  More on the subject of sovereign borders in the article below

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/03/the-issue-of-sovereign-borders.html

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 05:49 | 5139617 onmail
onmail's picture

Thumbs up to Scotland Yes.
Britain has become only a parrot sitting on the shoulder of Pirate Chief America.
Like a Jackal friend of a Lion , it eats the leftovers after the Lion (USA) makes a killing such as WMD of Iraq killing a million people + more counting now.
British East India company caused death of 10 million people in India 150 years ago and also other atrocities.
Britain is the no. 1 in accumulating black money mostly war spoils.
Time for Britain is up.
Shall I say GTH.

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