India, Pakistan Intensify Shooting Across Border; Iran Downs Israel Drone; ISIS Seizes Military Airport

Tyler Durden's picture

Since in the New Normal no geopolitical events appear to have any adverse impact on risk and asset prices (because the central banks are always there to protect investors should the market "plunge" by say 5%) with general newsflow completely irrelevant on what has been a straight line up in the S&P since the announcement of QE4 in December 2012, one might as well see how much further geopolitical events can be pushed further before it all crashes.

In other words, time for this weekend's geopolitical update.

Overnight both Pakistan and Iran have done their best to add to the geopolitical instability, which has already englufed Ukraine, and half the middle-east and north Africa, when on one hand Indian and Pakistani troops intensified firing across the border over the weekend killing at least four, an Indian official said on Sunday, straining ties between the arch rivals who recently called off top-level diplomatic talks. On the other moments ago news broke that Iran had shot down an Israeli spy drone heading for Iran's Natanz nuclear enrichment facility.

Taking these one at a time.

First, Reuters reports that lime last week India said its foreign secretary would not meet with her Pakistani counterpart as scheduled on Monday because of plans by Pakistan to consult separatists from the border state of Jammu and Kashmir ahead of the meeting.

The cancellation dashed any hopes of near-term peace deliberations, chances of which had risen after Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif attended the inauguration of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi about three months ago.


The Himalayan region of Kashmir has been a bone of contention between India and Pakistan since both countries became independent in 1947. They have fought three wars and came close to a fourth in 2001 and there have been regular clashes on the Line of Control that divides Indian- and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir.


Giving ammunition to hawks on both the sides against resuming talks, firing across the border has picked up.


According to India's Defence Ministry, there have been 70 ceasefire violations by Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir since Modi took over.

Naturally, both sides accused each other: "Pakistani troops violated ceasefire again today and restored to heavy firing targeting 22 Border Security Force (BSF) posts," BSF Inspector General for Jammu frontier, Rakesh Sharma, told Reuters. Sharma said two people were killed on Saturday and four were injured, including a BSF man. "We gave them befitting reply causing equal casualties on their side," he said. On the other hand, Pakistani military sources said on Saturday night that in July and August BSF had committed 23 ceasefire violations by resorting to unprovoked firing. Pakistani media reported on Sunday that three people were killed and 11 injured in "unprovoked firing" by Indian troops.

The fact the cross-border violence has resumed just as Pakistan is facing its own internal political crisis, with the movement of Imran Khan seeking to destabilize the Sharif government and lead to a political overhaul (in the process throwin some choice words America's way), will hardly facilitate a prompt de-escalation of hostilities.

In other news, Iran said it had shot down an Israeli spy drone that was heading for its Natanz nuclear enrichment site, Iranian media reported. "The downed aircraft was of the stealth, radar-evasive type and it intended to penetrate the off-limits nuclear area in Natanz ... but was targeted by a ground-to-air missile before it managed to enter the area," state news agency ISNA said, citing a statement by Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

Israel's desire to halt Iran's nuclear enrichment process has been ongoing for years, and was the reason for the first infamous "Red Line" comment made several years ago at the UN by Israel's Netanyahu. Iran and six world powers are trying to negotiate an end to the standoff which has led to damaging economic sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic.

Israel, widely assumed to have the Middle East's only atomic arsenal, demands Iran be stripped of all nuclear technologies, something Tehran rules out and which most foreign diplomats deem unrealistic.


Iran has accused Israel and its allies in the West of assassinating its nuclear scientists and attacking its nuclear sites with computer viruses. Israel has always declined comment on such accusations and on Sunday its military said it did not comment on foreign reports.


The Revolutionary Guards said of the drone incursion: "This wily act further exposed the Zionist regime's adventurous temperament and added yet another black page to a record filled with crime and mischief."


If confirmed, an aircraft built by Israel's state-owned Aerospace Industries known as the Heron, or the more powerful Heron TP, is likely to have been involved for such a long-range mission. Military commanders in Israel have described both as a possible means of monitoring Iran and other countries.

Of course, Iran could be merely pulling an Ukraine and making it all up just to make Israel's foreign standing appear incompetent in the global arena, although it will have to work very hard for it to attain "America incompetence" status.

Finally, Al Jazeera reported that Islamic State fighters have seized the Tabqa military air base, the last stronghold of the Syrian army in Raqqa province, a monitoring group said. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said clashes were still taking place on the outskirts of the airport on Sunday, but the facility was under the group's control and strewn with bodies of "dozens" of soldiers.

Syrian state television, meanwhile, reported the "evacuation" of the airport, citing a military source. "After heavy fighting by the forces defending the Tabqa airport, our forces implemented a regrouping operation after the evacuation of the airport," state television said in a breaking news alert.


It added that army troops were launching "precision strikes" against "terrorist groups in the area, inflicting heavy losses".


Regime forces had repelled three previous attacks on the base. Warplanes backed forces on the ground and carried out six new raids on Sunday on different targets.


The air base is one of the most significant government military facilities in the area, containing several warplane squadrons, helicopters, tanks, artillery and ammunition.


Rami Abdel Rahman, director of the Britain-based Observatory, said the fighters had also seized several checkpoints, hanging up at one the head of a soldier who had been killed in the fighting and decapitated.

And speaking of ISIS, the "Junior Varsity" al-Qaeda has once again managed to unite not only the US and Syria (which was bomed by the former fore several years giving rise to ISIS in the first place), but also Iran and Iraq, with the former sending "hundreds of troops into Iraq to join battel against the Islamic State."

Hundreds of soldiers crossed the border on Friday in a joint operation with Kurdish Peshmerga forces to take back Jalawla in Diyala province, an official Kurdish source who asked not to be identified told Al Jazeera. He said the Iranian forces retreated back across the border early on Saturday.


Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham dismissed the reports of any Iranian military presence in Iraq.


According to the official IRNA news agency, she said Tehran "has a close watch on field developments in Iraq sensitively with regards to mutual cooperation and international commitments and takes into consideration cooperation with the Iraqi government".

Wrapping up the ISIS coverage, also over the weekend, Qatar, the state long suspected, and confirmed, of funding not only Syrian rebels but also ISIS, spoke up rejecting "accusations of giving financial support to fighters of the Islamic State group who have seized large swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria, and condemned their "barbaric" murder of a US journalist."

Foreign Minister Khaled al-Attiyah's comments on Saturday came a day after the German government apologised for remarks by a minister accusing Qatar of financing the self-declared jihadists. Attiyah described the comments as ill-informed.


"Qatar does not support extremist groups, including [the Islamic State], in any way. We are repelled by their views, their violent methods and their ambitions," he said in a statement released in London.


"The vision of extremist groups for the region is one that we have not, nor will ever, support in any way."

The best news: Obama is heading back to DC from his well-deserved 2-week vacation, and is sure to make all of these geopolitical troubles promptly go away.

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laomei's picture

Ah, so now they have half a billion usd and an airforce.

X.inf.capt's picture



i'll bet somebody's making alot of money right now!

kaiserhoff's picture

I'm sure Barry will get in his 18 holes,

  so it's all good.

GetZeeGold's picture



India, Pakistan Intensify Shooting Across Border; Iran Downs Israel Drone; ISIS Seizes Military Airport


Damn neighbor's cat just did his business on my lawn....I'm breakin out the rockets bitchez!

exi1ed0ne's picture

Iran shoots down a spy drone from a hostile country in Iranian airspace, and they are the ones adding to world instability?!?  Holy shit my brain is exploding from the stupid.

Xibalba's picture

When the market rallies on this kind of news, you know it's all going according to plan...

The Big Ching-aso's picture

An Indian and a Pakistani taxi cab driver get in a car accident. They start screaming at each other with......

"Speak English! I can't understand a word you're saying!"

Lea's picture

Actually, that's not true. In all likehood, they will both speak Urdu.

robertocarlos's picture

Oh come on. I took a cab and the driver kept telling me he was "sick". It took him saying it 3 times before I got it.

JohninMK's picture

If it happened they will parade the wreckage, just as last time. Maybe some of the drone survives.

Another success for the S300?

Bananamerican's picture

India, Pakistan, Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria and Qatar
I love the Q-PIIIIS updates!

the phantom's picture

You'll never know if it was the S-300 officially.  Lets see if Iran shows any proof.

Headbanger's picture

Nahhh.. It's amazing what a Mosin 91/30 can do after it's bedded and barrel corked!

Mesquite's picture

To state the obvious: S-300 would be way overkill (and expensive) for a stupid drone...

123dobryden's picture

the point  is as drone reaches that mountain his price go up quickly

Savyindallas's picture

Well - in a way yes. If they would just submit to slavery and servitude and domination to the banksters like we Americans have done  - then in a way there would be more stability. Maybe being slaves isn't something for us to fear and get all excited about. Millions of American Sheeple seem not to mind. Life in the matrix is not so bad  -if we behave, they'll give us our daily fix of sex , drugs and Rock N'Roll  -at least those of us they don't kill off. And so what if the masters want us to sexually share our daughters and wives with them. marry a fat, ugly girl, and they won't bother you. Just behave and we will get our reward in heaven.

AlaricBalth's picture

"President Obama has been trying to create a more cooperative climate which can help reverse the present trend. He has already "lowered the temperature in the world", in the words of former Peace Prize Laureate Desmond Tutu...The U.S.A. is now paying its bills to the U.N. It is joining various committees, and acceding to important conventions. International standards are again respected. Torture is forbidden; the President is doing what he can to close Guantanamo. Human rights and international law are guiding principles. This is why this year's Laureate has earned the praise of the leaders of international institutions. New opportunities have been created."

2009 Nobel Peace Prize Presentation Speech

In one word: FAIL

Rusty Shorts's picture

Yeah, new opportunities...


German general to be assigned as U.S. Army Europe's new chief of staff

espirit's picture

Islamic state fighters in Syria.

Today, ISIS is our buddy.

What a shitshow.  Must be back to collect a US paycheck.

Harbanger's picture

They took out the Bozo troll which took out all the comments beneath him.

Watch Bird 1's picture

surely they'll have their own central bank any day now.

willwork4food's picture

Obama is headed back to DC? Now we're really up the creek.

max2205's picture

Couple of wars ECT in S America would make it a trifecta

Fidel Castrol's picture

of course every american "expert" will now hit the airwaves and bloviate on this. such experts couldn't name more than 5 cities in pakistan or india of course.

laomei's picture

You see, the problem here is that the US is busy pissing away trillions and tearing the US to shreds trying to kill an idea.  That's all it is when it comes down to it.  ISIS/ISIL/IS was perfectly content chilling out in their little region attracting recruits to build something they want.  Then the US had to go and stick its dick in the hornets nest again... pissing them off and shifting the focus back to the us.  And oops, guess what, no one has to "sneak in" when it's easier to recruit and supply.  With the only way to counter it being even more insane cops and a police state... which works just as well as any attack as it destroys the US.

Harbanger's picture

The idea of building an Islamic Caliphate is not new, they're only ceasing the opportunity.  As things collapse something else usually extremism rushes in, whether in the middle east or here in the west.  History is loaded with examples.

QQQBall's picture

ceasing the opportunity... now there is an interesting slip

Harbanger's picture

Not a slip.  Barry is very aware of what's going on.

ebear's picture

Damn, I wish people would seize and resist these sin tax errors.

roadhazard's picture

And not one word about America being involved. I like it.

FieldingMellish's picture

You forgot that the Tripoli Airport is now also in militia hands. Oil output of Libya now down to 500K b/d from 1.4m last year.

Dubaibanker's picture

You got here first though Tylers missed it in the headlines.

World keeps getting stranger by the day.

Some militants captured the Tripoli airport and later on some other 'militants' or the euphemism 'unknown jets' attacked the airport.

Wonder what friendly country those 'unknown jets' belonged to? 

Unidentified jets attack targets in Tripoli
thethirdcoast's picture

Word on the street is either France or Algeria.

I wonder where this bad boy is parked right now:

LostandFound's picture

What a shit show! Moar War to cap off an already disgraceful and desperate 2014.

tony wilson's picture

operation gladio

the rabbi cannot have folks like modi talking peace.

sas style shoot both sides let the locals do the rest.

classic david sterling and frank kitson low level military operations.

works every time.


capture of the Tabqa military air base makes sense isis will be attacking bases like this to take out super strong syrian integrated air defense systems.

maybe trying to destroy s300 systems.

softening up for covert israeli,uk and official us bombing within syria the cover is isis the real target assad

is it not clear yet who isis are working for : )


syrian shock and awe incoming init

Minge's picture

Dude!  I have underestimated you.  You actually went back and dug up Gladio? 

The sheer effort you put into self-affirmation of your psychosis is nothing short of amazing.

Silendo Libertatem Servo.

acetinker's picture

Ya' might preserve peace by remaining silent; such as when my wife says something utterly sheep-like.  Freedom, on the other hand, requires much diligence and effort.

djsmps's picture

Obama should be nice and rested and ready to deal with some fund raising.

StormShadow's picture

Well, right after some Reggie Love anyway

Bossman1967's picture

all this was predicted so where is the collapse already?

bid the soldiers shoot's picture

"She'll be comin' round the moutain when she comes..."

americanspirit's picture

The nuclear arsenals of both countries are in responsible hands. Nothing can go wrong.

StormShadow's picture

Go wrong...go wrong...go wrong

Laddie's picture

China has taken over a part of India earlier this week. Wonder how that is working out.

As far as Iran, they have had Mossad assassins killing their nuclear scientists, sabotaging, with possible radiation releases, their nuclear facilities. Yet the "VOICE OF WORLD OPINION" as expressed through the West is SILENT. Yet Israel engages in genocide against the Palestinian people and AMERICA is SILENT.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seems to me to be a better man, a more decent and honest and honorable man than our last dozen presidents that much is clear.

And Ahmadinejad was FOR the people of Iran, UNLIKE the last few dozen presidents America has had.

acetinker's picture

Ahmadinejad moved freely (and humbly) among his people, seeing no need for bodyguards.  This is how a leader behaves.

In contrast, the ones were supposed to trust need legions of security personnel.  This is how tyrants behave.

acetinker's picture

Hey knuks, thanks for the junk!  I know you don't like me, apparently b'cos I live in Georgia but guess what?  Most of what you say, I agree with.  No shit.  Now seriously, do you disagree with what I wrote, or are you just being a shithead 'cos you don't like me?  It's an honest question.

agent default's picture

So it's a done deal.  Gold is set for a crash tomorrow.