Krugman's Keynesian Crackpottery: Wasteful Spending Is Better Than Nothing!

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider of Alhambra Partners, via David Stockman of Contra Corner blog,

Janet Yellen has essentially confirmed QE’s demise; good riddance. Unfortunately, I don’t think that is the final end of QE in America, just as it hasn’t been the end time after time in Japan (and perhaps now Europe treading down the same ill-received road). What’s interesting is really watching these central bankers talk themselves in circles about why that is. At the start of each program, there is no ambiguity, largely because of both inordinate faith in regressions and rational expectations theory that posits central bankers’ greatest work is in self-fulfilling prophecy – QE only works if you get people to believe in it.

But believing and acting are two separate and distinct functions that follow very different lines even for some of the same reasons. The premise of QE is rather dastardly, going all the way back to IS-LM and Samuelson (who admitted later how ill-suited such an academic framework was for anything outside of a classroom). What matters is the rate of interest next to the natural rate of interest. But in a real world where 0% represents a very real boundary, all that is left if interest rates at zero remain above the “natural” rate is to shift expectations toward “inflation.”

To gain a foothold below the natural interest rate, in IS-LM, is to shift focus to the real interest rate, and thus make the primary variable inflation. But that isn’t what really happens, either, as it is not inflation that moves but inflation expectations – again rational expectations theory. QE debasement seems to conform to what economists model of lay interpretations of inflationary sourcing, so the idea passes cursory logic, though, as Samuelson noted, only in a basic, low-variable and static environment.

The “markets” (or at least mainstream commentary seeking to provide post facto causation) seem preoccupied with “hawkishness” vs. “dovishness” when in fact QE was already on its way out as early as February 2013. When Fed Governor Jeremy Stein openly stated the “reach for yield” conundrum it was an implicit reference to the idea, long denied, that QE has very real costs.

Nevertheless, I want to urge caution here and, again, stress how hard it is to capture everything we’d like. As I said, ideally we would total all of the ways in which a given asset class is financed with short-term claims. Repos constitute one example, but there are others. And, crucially, these short-term claims need not be debt claims. If relatively illiquid junk bonds or leveraged loans are held by open-end investment vehicles such as mutual funds or by exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and if investors in these vehicles seek to withdraw at the first sign of trouble, then this demandable equity will have the same fire-sale-generating properties as short-term debt.18 One is naturally inclined to look at data on short-term debt like repo, given its prominence in the recent crisis. But precisely because it is being more closely monitored, there is the risk that next time around, the short-term claims may take another form.

In other words, less than two months after expanding QE3 to QE4 (UST “buying”) Jeremey Stein was essentially describing the downside of the crowded trade in a system with very narrow, potentially, exits. And while he was right to look for other possible exit bottlenecks, the repo market, despite all its new “monitoring” has not been very encouraging of late.

A few months later, Ben Bernanke began talking taper, referencing repeatedly that the FOMC was seeing recovery in the economy and stressing the improvement in labor. The global dollar disruption caught the Fed unaware, staggered their commitment to the straight-line ending of QE, but did not, ultimately end it. In fact, when in September 2013 the FOMC “shocked” expectations by not tapering the FOMC simply noted it was awaiting “confirmation” that the economy was still on track, as they were undoubtedly intimidated, but ultimately unphased, by the dollar episode and credit market selloff.

That came sometime in October and November, apparently, as the FOMC tapered last December.

That, I think more than anything, clarifies this entrenched trend. Supposedly the economy provided confirmation at the very moment of the worst Christmas shopping season since 2009, a very noticeable inflection in capital goods investing (with companies for “some reason” shifting cash to financialism instead) and what would turn out as a very severe contraction in GDP by Q1 (even though initial expectations and estimates were for a positive number, it was still near-zero and looked pretty bad in its own right initially).

A Federal Reserve policy that is committed to a data-driven approach, as proclaimed repeatedly in the past two years, would have further paused under such observations. Even the vaunted Establishment Survey stumbled in the winter, which had to be very unnerving to anyone actually committed to the data instead of pre-programmed monetary deceleration.

And that is what I think has been ongoing again since at least February 2013. QE is on autopilot to its end, not because of “incoming data” but because of secular stagnation. This is an idea that has infected nearly every facet of central banks since Mario Draghi’s euro promise (and perhaps even before then in a more quiet and reserved fashion). This is certainly been a topic for some time given Japan’s persistent failure, and the longer the US and Europe, indeed the world, goes without recovery the more it looks as if the theory holds consistency with observation.

It should go without saying that I pretty much disagree with nearly everything that Paul Krugman says, writes and thinks, but there is surprisingly enough room to see and observe where we do agree and the implications of that. Writing in the New York Times back in November 2013, Krugman noticed:

We now know that the economic expansion of 2003-2007 was driven by a bubble. You can say the same about the latter part of the 90s expansion; and you can in fact say the same about the later years of the Reagan expansion, which was driven at that point by runaway thrift institutions and a large bubble in commercial real estate.

So far, so good.

But as Larry [Summers] emphasizes, there’s a big problem with the claim that monetary policy has been too loose; where’s the inflation? Where has the overheated economy been visible?

The closed economy theory strikes again, whereby Paul Krugman efficiently describes the symptoms of the problem and then immediately denies the most logical, intuitive and consistent explanation for it because asset bubbles do not conform to the economist’s definition and consideration of inflation?

That is not some trivial distinction, as everything that comes thereafter is corrupted by that blindness. Where this all becomes most relevant (and there is a lot here that is really important, but consumes far too much space, even more than this already long exposition) to “dovishness” vs. “hawkishness” in the current circumstance is the implications for “secular stagnation” in terms of policy. The inability to see the economy as it is causes the Krugmans and Larry Summers of the world to theorize that economic growth “needs” asset bubbles to take place. And part of the reason for that is a downshift in the natural rate of interest, even to the point of being negative on a persistent basis.

Therefore, in the IS-LM worldview, the Fed has no choice but to push interest rates down with the natural rate, causing serial and perpetual bubbles along the way. Instead of seeing financialism as the primary reason for the “declining natural interest rate”, such that it actually exists in any form, they put the cart before the horse, instead remaining unquenchably curious as to why economic potential is mysteriously eroding and thus “needing” asset bubbles. That is where the most comedy is observed, as they try to come up with various reasons for that and even more wild desires for getting out of it.

Krugman again:

This is the kind of environment in which Keynes’s hypothetical policy of burying currency in coalmines and letting the private sector dig it up – or my version, which involves faking a threat from nonexistent space aliens – becomes a good thing; spending is good, and while productive spending is best, unproductive spending is still better than nothing.

Others have posited equally ridiculous ideas, including a distinct “lack of war” in the past few decades as “explaining” why the natural rate of interest may be falling so consistently. That is all pure nonsense as it contours far too closely to short-term thinking at the expense of the long-term, a Keynesian impulse at the heart of far too much folly. What bends lower the productive trajectory of the economy is unproductive spending taken in the name of such short-term consideration. Wasting resources is a net negative, not neutral as Krugman and the monetarists simply assume. They see these resources as otherwise idle, and thus opportunity cost is greater than profitable considerations.

Where monetary policy comes in is that it has the unique ability to allow unproductive spending and investment to remain undiscovered far longer than it should – through exponential debt. You can fund “bad” ideas for a long time when the “reach for yield” reaches itself for extreme levels. You get exactly what the Keynesians want, “several years of much higher employment” and investment, but the net cost is not zero as they imply, it is at the expense of future growth as so much unprofitable waste demands reversion to the mean or a return to productive balance.

This is what Stanley Fischer so conspicuously missed in his speech last week, as the flow of wasted resources is not simply raw materials and labor, but financialism as well.

Currently, even policymakers who are willing to concede that the liquidity trap makes nonsense of conventional notions of policy prudence are busy preparing for the time when normality returns. This means that they are preoccupied with the idea that they must act now to head off future crises.

And so QE is on autopilot to its end, regardless of incoming data. The secular stagnation theory, that I think has been fully absorbed in certainly Yellen’s FOMC, sees little gain from it because, as they assume, the lackluster economy is due to this mysterious decline in the “natural rate of interest.” Therefore QE in the fourth iteration accomplishes far less toward that goal, especially with diminishing impacts on expectations in the real economy, other than create bubbles of activity (“reach for yield”) that always end badly. What Krugman and Summers call for is a massive bubble of biblical proportions that “shocks” the economy out of this mysterious rut, to “push inflation substantially higher, and keep it there.” In other words, Abenomics in America.

While Yellen’s FOMC and Paul Krugman and his acolytes may differ on specific prescriptions, they are very much just different sides of the same coin. To them, an economy is generic activity that must be obtained because the opportunity cost of doing nothing is positive and their view of wasting resources in that paradigm is of zero consequence. That is nonsense, because an economy is the creation of wealth that is axiomatically tied to profitable enterprise, which indisputably is ruined by so much waste.

In the end, secular stagnation might unite orthodoxists and those opposed to them as an observation, but certainly not how and why that may have come about. Japanification is becoming universal, and the more these appeals to generic activity and waste continue, the tighter its “mysterious” grip. For now, though, QE is done (for now) in the US no matter how bad the economy gets.

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Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:08 | 5136947 kowalli
kowalli's picture

ahahah? lol what?

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:10 | 5136958 y3maxx
y3maxx's picture

...To help jumpstart the Economy, the USSA Govt and Banksters should provide free coffins and burial plots for America's Middle Class.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:13 | 5136962 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

WE ARE SO DOOMED!

GAME OVER!

BITCHEZ!

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:17 | 5136970 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

<--Slut

<--Nobel Prize winner

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:47 | 5137041 Manthong
Manthong's picture

“Wasteful Spending Is Better Than Nothing!”

..and that wrinkled, stinking, hunch back, ugly old bar fly that took me home last night was better than nothing, too.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 12:03 | 5137086 Da Yooper
Da Yooper's picture

“Wasteful Spending Is Better Than Nothing!”

 

I have to wonder

 

if these assholes would be saying this

 

IF they were not BENEFITING

 

from the "wasteful" spending

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 12:19 | 5137139 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

Moral equivlent of pond scum. It's fucking amazing how many people sign off that immoral reasoning is somehow preferable and they really really work hard to square that circle. Just the right amount of lieing, when balanced just right, is a beautiful thing for all. It's zen even! 

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 16:08 | 5137774 Truthseeker2
Sun, 08/24/2014 - 12:55 | 5137235 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Krugman IS wasteful spending.

So no, Paul, it's not better than nothing.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 14:10 | 5137402 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

What's fucked is that there is a lot of non wasteful spending that could be done. Which is also why I have been against what the Fed is doing from dsy one. There still isn't enough money in the real economy and probably never will be because they refuse to spend the money where it will do the most good.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 14:48 | 5137510 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

If you hammer a screw long enough it will go partway into the wood.

We are the screw getting hammered, instead of getting $3 Million tax free each.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 16:01 | 5137748 jarana
jarana's picture

“Wasteful Spending Is Better Than Nothing!”

The alternative to expending is saving or investing. (period)

It's impossible to do NOTHING (time passes and you are doing one of the 3 things above with or without your conscience).

So the real question is if one should expend, save or invest.

Wasteful spending is the result of spending when one should save or invest.

This should be understood even by a 7 year old child.

Mr. Nobel Prize, thanks for your contributions to humanity.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:50 | 5137042 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

When you are the cheerleader of an incompatible, dead or dying ideology that has no hope of functioning now or in the future, then yes, the gross misallocation of resources (malinvestment) is better than no investment in that system.  In fact, it is the only thing that keeps the current and corrupt system from crashing (right now, as opposed to later and greater).  If Krugman admitted that his models faileth, then he would spend the last of his days as the discredited, unemployed soothsayer that he is, rather than the expert economic analyst that so many people believe him to be.

 

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:56 | 5137064 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

People stick by incorrect, disproven, dead, and dying ideologies when they make them filthy rich.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 12:01 | 5137081 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

Exactly, and why not?  They are disincentivized to admit anything different.  The marriage of centralized, institutional power and money.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:48 | 5137043 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Idiots.  What would these damn Soviet Central Planners know about the "natural" rate of interest?

How many times do their ridiculous models have to fail?

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:22 | 5136990 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

they already have them so now what? That's the most rediculous article I've read today. talk in circles much?

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 13:03 | 5137258 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 15:32 | 5137625 Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

This is most definitely the viewpoint my children have...

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:11 | 5136961 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Not too bright, Krugman, when we live inside a debt money regime (which you conveniently and oddly never mention) where these debts will have to be serviced.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:15 | 5136966 shouldvekilledthem
shouldvekilledthem's picture

Consume MOAR!

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:20 | 5136979 Fluxite
Fluxite's picture

this is micro analyzing when the problems are macro:

 

There are larger, less indebted, more agressive countries than the USA that are taking over the world trade>

 

Its as simples as that.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:21 | 5136983 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Misallocation of capital is more beneficial than not spending. So, letting the banks continue to loot, is the American economies best chance at recovery.

 

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:21 | 5136985 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Austerity is a term that recently has been given all kinds of negative connotations because it is often painful. Economic growth tends to mask a multitude of problems, in economics austerity refers to cutting spending often by lowering and reducing the amount of benefits and public services.  Austerity policies are often used by governments to try to reduce their deficit spending.

Spending cutbacks are sometimes coupled with increases in taxes in an effort to demonstrate long-term fiscal solvency to creditors.  It is easy to point your finger at measures taken to reduce runaway or wasted spending and blame them for creating a reduced spending spiral but that is unfair. More on how Austerity has been given a bum rap in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/04/austerity-is-being-given-bum-rap....

 

 

 

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:48 | 5137039 chubbar
chubbar's picture

To follow a related train of thought, who is buying the trillion dollars in debt being issued each year by the U.S. gov't deficit spending? It can't be the primary dealers and I think we can all agree that most foreign gov'ts of any size are either in worse shape debt wise and/or are moving away from the dollar.

Is Belgium going to be able to buy a trillion a year in debt securities? If not, and "if" QE stops, what is the mechanism by which the U.S. gov't unloads it's perpetual debt instruments? Or am I missing something here?

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 15:14 | 5137565 daveO
daveO's picture

MYRA's or Luxembourg.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:22 | 5136988 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Lots of broken windows in Napa right now. Can Krugman get a second Nobel Prize?

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:23 | 5136991 Bioscale
Bioscale's picture

A bit off topic. Resistance in Donetsk showing the Ukies soldiers in the streets:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFGiAn_u6c

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 12:17 | 5137135 Bioscale
Bioscale's picture

LiveLeak put it into a better context: parade of POWs of the Germans in Moscow in 1944

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=a87_1408887989

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:23 | 5136994 suteibu
suteibu's picture

Japan is still fighting deflation.

BOJ may ease policy for some time to beat deflation: Kuroda

I suppose one excuse is as good as another.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:59 | 5137074 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture
Business is bad

A sign of Japan’s economic malaise? A shopping street in Shimizu Ward, Shizuoka City, is practically deserted on Sunday morning.

http://www.japantoday.com/category/picture-of-the-day/view/business-is-bad

 

 

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:24 | 5136996 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

By now Krugman should be treated like the troll he is, and just ignored.

He is just an apologist for the elites who pay his salary. Let him howl at the moon and call it cheese for all we care.

An American, not US subject.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:30 | 5137006 wisefool
wisefool's picture

You answered your own question. Elites need appologists to continue the status quo. You can ignore him, but when his masters set policy based on his statements, you will not ignore that. They have both the guns and the judges.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 12:01 | 5137075 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

"They have both the guns and the judges."

One day the people, the American people, on whose production the elites live off of, and bearing guns, will come as judges of they, the treasonous elites.

An American, not US subject.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:24 | 5136997 RacerX
RacerX's picture

Isn't krugman's 15 minutes up already?!

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:59 | 5137069 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

For Krugman 15 minutes = $150K, the going rate for statist-economist whores.

 

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:30 | 5137008 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I feel like Captain Picard on the Star Trek Enterprise and the Universal Translator has just crapped out when I read this shit?

Who cares if Krugman is wrong dicktard! We alread have Krugman you stupid phuck!

SHUT THE PHUCK UP YOU MORON!

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 12:07 | 5137095 whatthecurtains
whatthecurtains's picture

You are more like a fucking Pakled.    

"You're smart... we look for things to make economy grow.  Will you make us grow?"

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 15:23 | 5137602 pakled
pakled's picture

Actually, it's "You're smaaart... "

 

There. Fixed it for ya.

;>

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:40 | 5137016 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

Let me explain it to the morons.

1. QE only works if the money goes to the people first before the banks.

2. QE only works if the people do not have to pay the money back.

... even so, my guess is that people will pay down debt first ... then spend. That is what is natural to people. People only take on debt if they have to.

That is the ONLY way that people will spend the money into the economy. People will NEVER spend the money if all it does is give them a higher debt load. Money that gives the people a higher debt load ONLY benefits the banks and NO ONE else... especially the economy.

Maybe they are not morons. It is just as likely that they are doing it on purpose to kill the country and make it defenseless against the aggression of the banks. That is what banks do. They enslave people and countries. Is is any wonder people resist against the chains? duh! (grumble, grumble ... f'n morons.)

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 11:51 | 5137050 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

This.

=+1

;-)

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 12:02 | 5137084 techstrategy
techstrategy's picture

QE for the people: everyone stops paying their mortgage...  Would probably be the most efficient QE boost.  Fed will soon own all the MBS anyway...

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 12:13 | 5137115 techstrategy
techstrategy's picture

After all, the reduction of estimated loan losses is driving bank earnings and bonuses.  Why can't we get some of that CB free money as well?

To be clear, I really just want the financial sector to have to add value to capture value.  I'd rather see the financial ponzi unwind than QE for the people, but if that is what it will take for the required currency / financial asset versus real asset revaluation, let's get it on and get it over.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 12:06 | 5137091 whatthecurtains
whatthecurtains's picture

The purpose isn't to help the poor or turn the economy around.  It is to tear down the middle class.   You've been fucked by the hopeless changemaker

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 12:07 | 5137093 Hungrypirana
Hungrypirana's picture

The federal government ran a budget deficit of $462 billion for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2014. Add in the off budget accounts; the US Post Office is spending $8 billion in FY 2015 it doesn’t have. State governments are spending approximately $100 billion of G.O. debt proceeds this year.

This amounts to almost $700 billion of fiscal stimulus by year’s end. Moar, moar moar.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 12:38 | 5137166 nakki
nakki's picture

How hard is it to figure out. All QE has done is creat more $$ going into less hands.Then again in 1913 when the idea that a private entity would control the US dollar, the people of this nations fate was sealed. After all, its their money.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 12:32 | 5137173 LetsGetPhysical
LetsGetPhysical's picture

The way you get rid of a troll is to IGNORE it. ZH please stop feeding the troll. I swear Tylers favorite word is Krugman. By constantly calling out his name you are promoting him. He's a jackass.... we get it already. Or is it just a slow news day and you looking for some click-bait. If so, well done sir. 

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 15:04 | 5137545 daveO
daveO's picture

Orwell called it a Hate Session. Those who don't participate should be reported immediately.  

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 12:43 | 5137202 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Yanet Yellen was caught last week stuffing a Bernanke up her Krugman.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 12:46 | 5137214 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

Let me repeat. Inflation is not a problem.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!