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Oil After US Hegemony

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Via BofAML's Global Commodity Research team,

Oil after US hegemony

Volatility of global oil output has fallen to historic lows...

We recently discussed how a confluence of factors had pushed oil price volatility down in recent years (see “OPEC discord and oil stability”). Macro drivers such as massive monetary easing have helped, but a collapse in global oil production fluctuations to historic lows has been perhaps the key micro dampener of oil price volatility (Chart 2). The elimination of individual OPEC country quotas has led to increased operating flexibility for Saudi, Kuwait, and UEA. This shift has resulted in higher output swings at an individual OPEC country level, but lower vol for the cartel as a whole (Chart 3). In our view, the three swing suppliers have enough operational and financial bandwidth to keep going, and we have previously stated that Brent prices will not fall for long below $100/bbl unless Saudi wants them to.

...even though individual country disruptions skyrocketed

What are the limits of this operating bandwidth should geopolitics worsen? With Saudi theoretical spare capacity at 2.4 million b/d, the scope to accommodate the next major geopolitical event may be limited. In fact, supply disruptions are already at a very high point, as noted in our analysis of OPEC production volatility. Libya and Iran combined add up to 2.2 million b/d of oil supply lost, but many other countries have also failed to increased supply as expected (Chart 4). When looking at supply disruptions historically, we find that we are currently at the highest level since March and before that since the Gulf War of the early 90s (Chart 4). If we dig further and break down this data into violence and nonviolence related oil supply disruptions, we can clearly see how armed conflict has become a major driver of global oil output swings (Chart 5).

Geopolitical energy risk has risen a lot in recent years

From Arab Spring-related uprisings in Libya or Egypt, to a civil war in Syria and now violence in Iraq and the Ukraine, geopolitical tensions have been on the rise across many key energy production and transit countries (Chart 6). This increase in violent conflict has religious, ethnic, cultural, political, or economic roots, among others. Even climate change and the fight for increasingly scarce resources may be leading to more wars and conflict, according to a recent Pentagon report. And looking back in history, wars and conflict such as the Iranian revolution or the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait are easy to spot on a simple oil price series (Chart 7). But not every conflict around the world impacts oil markets in the same way.

...as evidenced by the link between conflict and output

Increased geopolitical risk, measured by combat deaths around the world, does not even correlate particularly well with oil market volatility or even oil price fluctuations (Chart 8). This is partly because not every country has the same importance for the oil market. If we adjust conflict deaths in key areas, the historical relationship between oil production and armed conflict strengthens significantly (Chart 9). After all, as many historical episodes suggest, oil development and distribution systems are hard to keep running when countries are immersed in civil wars or wars with neighboring countries. The recent trend in armed conflict deaths in the Middle East, North Africa, and Eastern Europe is therefore very worrisome, particularly in the light of the limited appetite the Obama Administration has shown to keep American boots on the ground.

US military spending still high, but risk appetite is low

The world remains mostly unipolar from a hard power standpoint (Chart 10) and the US still takes up about 38% of global military spending as of 2013. American defense capabilities cannot be matched by any other nation and no conventional army would risk direct confrontation. But, the American public has shown very limited appetite for foreign military adventures in recent polls. The withdrawal of US ground troops in Iraq and soon Afghanistan, the limited involvement in Libya, and the lack of action in Syria and the Ukraine points to a much more cautious stance on military intervention abroad. Even the recent announced operation to help contain Islamist insurgents in Iraq will not involve US ground troops. Yet, this military retrenchment may not be helping curb global violence. Quite the contrary, a continued decline in US combat deaths in recent years has been mirrored by a rise in combat deaths elsewhere (Chart 11).

American energy independence may bring isolationism...

Perhaps it has become harder to use hard power in the era of Facebook and WikiLeaks. Perhaps the American public or the Obama Administration has lost interest in exercising it. Or perhaps US energy independence has brought American Isolationism back to the fore. Following long and arduous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, public opinion has firmly moved against military action that puts American lives at risk in recent years. Over the decades, different US Administrations have kept different positions on international conflict. Yet many military decisions in US history have been heavily influenced by the most recent prior experience as well as by the state of the economy at the time.

...as the economic case for military conflict has weakened

The American experience in World War I, for instance, resulted in a meaningful reversal of the Wilson doctrine of intervention. Thereafter, the Great Depression of the 1930s, coupled with memories of war casualties, further bolstered the case for isolationism and prompted Congress to initially even reject US participation in the League of Nations. Back then Congress even passed several Neutrality Acts in the run up to World War II, just as geopolitics turned increasingly virulent in both Europe and Asia. Recent US military adventures may have had a similar effect on public opinion. Plus the economic case to spend US tax revenues in military conflicts abroad has weakened after the deepest recession since the 1930s, a sharp decline in US crude oil and refined products net imports from countries outside North America (Chart 13), and a stagnating share of trade in US GDP (Chart 12).

...opening the door to turmoil in oil producing countries...

Against this growing reluctance to intervene, it is important to reiterate that the US still plays a key role in securing global trade and energy supplies for the global community. American military bases around the world are strategically located in nearly 30 countries or territories across six continents, compared to more limited and regional French military deployments in 15 countries, UK military in 10, or Russia also in 10. China, the world’s largest consumer of most commodities, is the only Permanent Member of the UN Security Council without significant military presence abroad. Yet, while there are no official plans to dismantle American presence abroad, the US military budget has been put on a diet (Chart 14). Key allies France and the UK have also seen their military spending decline on the back of deep austerity programs (Chart 15) and ageing populations.

...as regional powers try to fill the void left by the hegemon

Worryingly, as the hegemon retrenches, it has become apparent that other regional and local powers will come to fill the void. Russia’s attempt to increase its influence in Eastern Europe or ISIS’ run on Syria and Iraq are some of the most recent examples. Given the relatively strong link between war casualties in energy producing countries and oil output (Chart 16), we believe oil markets should prepare for more turmoil after US hegemony.

For now, Saudi and the other key swing suppliers within OPEC have the ability to respond to unexpected supply disruptions amounting to about 2 million b/d. But conflict deaths have quadrupled in the last 10 years and the trend is not particularly encouraging.

Following a structural decline in price fluctuations to multi-decade lows, implied volatility in long dated crude oil options at 15% is starting to look cheap (Chart 17).

*  *  *

As they conclude:

US reluctance to use hard power could exacerbate this trend Perhaps it is hard to deploy hard power in the era of Facebook and WikiLeaks. Or maybe US energy independence has brought back American Isolationism. Surely the economic case for war has weakened. Military spending is being cut back. Yet the US plays a key role to secure trade and energy supply for the world. Inevitably, as the superpower retrenches, other regional and local powers will come to fill the void. Russia’s attempt to exert influence on Eastern Europe or ISIS run on Syria and Iraq are recent examples. Following a drop to multi-decade lows, implied vol in long dated oil options at 15% looks cheap. Oil after US hegemony may not be as steady.

 

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Sun, 08/24/2014 - 20:00 | 5138482 Money Squid
Money Squid's picture

Big Oil is supranational, independent of any particular state government.

edit: "Or perhaps US energy independence has brought American Isolationism back to the fore."

who writes this crap? US energy independence ? Pfffffffff.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 20:12 | 5138561 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Anyone that mentions US energy independence as though it were real is either a dupe or a shill. Either way, it skews their analysis away from reality.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 20:31 | 5138623 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

"US reluctance to use hard power ..... brought back American Isolationism.......Military spending is being cut back....... other regional and local powers will come to fill the void. Russia’s attempt to exert influence on Eastern Europe or ISIS run on Syria and Iraq are recent examples........Oil after US hegemony may not be as steady"

Huh, what planet am I living on?

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 22:09 | 5138910 So Close
So Close's picture

I think if you look at this outside of the commidty supercycle lense you are losing some perspective.   And everyone laughed at Jim Rogers when he started his commoodity index fund in 1998.  Look at where just the price of oils has gone since then.  Laugh at wisdom at your own peril.  Now the question is when does it end?

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 23:16 | 5139143 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"Anyone that mentions US energy independence as though it were real is either a dupe or a shill. Either way, it skews their analysis away from reality."

FWIW: I believe in Energy Independence, Soon or later foriegners are simply going to ship oil to the US for US dollars. The US will simply power down and become the next Somalia.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 19:54 | 5138510 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The decline/loss of US hegemony is a process, not an event.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 20:24 | 5138596 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Its a process that could turn into an event CD.

There is a tipping point , what, or when, who knows.

All I do know , is all the pieces will be in place by this years' end.

The MIC is not going to let the USD go quietly into that long goodnight.

We live in interesting times.

 

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 21:07 | 5138729 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

The time stamped events are easier to say in the rear view. For example, the British hegemony went from Waterloo to when exactly? Beginning WWI? Suez crisis?

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 20:28 | 5138613 mendolover
mendolover's picture

Self-inflicted I'm afraid.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 20:12 | 5138558 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

The US only mops up in countries where the IMF (or BIS .. take you pick, all part of the same system of the beast) cannot corrupt the leaders and enslave the country through debt money.

"Take my silver or take my lead." Often attributed to Pablo Escobar, but he was only repeating what he was told from Lord Rothschild.

If "they" actually wanted less conflict instead of more then they would stop enslaving people with debt money and then forcing them to do their bidding. Think about it! Words mean absolutely nothing when the actions clearly state the exact opposite.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 20:15 | 5138568 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

This article gives me a warm feeling and a breeze that seems to rub my asshole the wrong way.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 22:29 | 5138986 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

You must be sensitive to smoke.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 20:17 | 5138572 SemperFudge
SemperFudge's picture

Oil will be at $200 per barrel soon after the end of this decade.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 20:30 | 5138615 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Means there must always be a bunch of production sitting idle, in order to meet demand when war stymies one counties production. If we had world peace oil would be $30 a barrel.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 20:37 | 5138628 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

I've heard it said that the US military is a major consumer of oil.  I've also heard that the world has been storing 20% to 30% of oil production since 2011.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 20:39 | 5138625 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

$25-$30 USD Petrodollar/barrel. Just like during the housing blow up. Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and AIG fuck up. Treasury figurehead Lew the Jew will ask for emergency banking bailout.

Isn't that right chrome dome Yellen?

 

 

 

 

 

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 20:39 | 5138639 highwaytoserfdom
highwaytoserfdom's picture

Isolationist? Hard power? Not going to waste breadth and mention the supply side standards-based Platt reports. Calling for a hard WTF kind of Krugman guns economics you pushing? Don't complain load the barges take delivery. .. future dislocation from physical possible liquidity swan. This story is the second Strangelove irony the other was a Lincoln scholar gushing vote Tolstoy comments Lincoln be remembered more than Julius Caesar, Napoleon in 500 years. Don'T think was good way if you read War and Peace. Percentage dead, over cotton labor andexport, industrial, railroads, military immoral hedgomy ans science killing propaganda.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 20:43 | 5138656 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Let me know when your finished typing under water and come up for a breath of air.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 20:49 | 5138676 skbull44
skbull44's picture

"...US energy independence..."

Are they unaware of Peak Oil and the shale oil/gas bubble?
Obviously!

http://olduvai.ca

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 21:10 | 5138739 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

There is no Peak Oil fucknob, just a war on controlling interest and what low IQ muppets will invest in higher taxation to flip the investment costs on war driven oil pipeline expansion under terrorism threats 

Did you understand that statement? Or are you so scared, a gun barrel is planted in your mouth? You have been lied to for decades. Welcome to reality. 

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 21:15 | 5138751 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Atomizer

I agree.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 21:34 | 5138808 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I appreciate your kind words. Others have to figure this out for themselves. I push my personal views on this site, only because I care. 

We have a great networking site to rant and rave. At the end of the day, we just want to help each other out. Learning is a evolutionary process, we never stop! 

 

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 21:03 | 5138718 balz
balz's picture

"US energy independance"...

Why do Zerohedge publish such crap? The shale bubble is rapidly deflating, with over 80% of wells depleted after 5 years. There is absolutely NO INDEPENDANCE for the US as far as energy is concerned.

This text lost all its credibility when it decided to accept as a fact what is only an illusion. Anbybody with a mind can go and check the figures: US oil producting still in decline from the top, and shale bubble is only a bump on the road to nowhere.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 21:08 | 5138731 edotabin
edotabin's picture

Once oil is no longer bought and sold in $, nuclear, solar and wind will be all the rage.

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 22:04 | 5138914 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

What Reserve Currency is going to repeat the USD fleecing again? Solar, wind and batteries was a dud in the United States. Are you telling us you plan to rip off another set of peasants currency reserve to repeat your same mistakes? Good luck with that. 

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 01:48 | 5139425 edotabin
edotabin's picture

All of a sudden it will become viable and everyone will be urged to support it. Fossil fuels will be very 20th century. I have a feeling they will be pumped big time.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 03:01 | 5139481 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Gold will be raging as well.... thats how you will pay for oil...

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 21:53 | 5138871 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

"Oil after US hegemony may not be as steady."

Gail Tverberg's articles have explained how much of an extreme understatement that is!

Sun, 08/24/2014 - 21:55 | 5138881 RMolineaux
RMolineaux's picture

This item picks up on unstated assumptions that the US must be the military hegemon that provides "stability" to the international oil market.  This is dangerous nonsense.  The US has been the principal agent for instability in the oil markets, starting with our alliance with the medieval monarchy of Saudi Arabia, and the Zionist ambitions of Israel.  These alliances have been the major provocations for the various conflicts that are occurring.  Saudi Arabia's role as the swing producer will become less effective as its own depletion progresses.  The bloated "defence" budget of the US will be the cause of its eventual exclusion from world influence, rather than a source of "stability" as claimed in this item.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 00:50 | 5139345 nah
nah's picture

my prediction is if we see the end of US petrodollar we will see the end of the oil market as we have known it and new energy risk association

.

and a new rise in US industry

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 01:39 | 5139417 teslaberry
teslaberry's picture

you know everything is a matter of timing.

all the peak oil shit, and even the peak 'cheap' oil shit. so many predictions, so many fortunes lost.

the amount of oil able to be pumped out of mother hippie earth goddess can surprise you longer than you can keep your foot out of your mouth about the end of the world being immanenet.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 05:39 | 5139608 Ocean22
Ocean22's picture

Says the man as he pumps 1.38 per liter in Canada. Lol. Yup. No such thing as peak anything. Carry along nothing to see here.

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