Key highlights in the coming week: US Durable Goods, Michigan Conf., Services PMI, PCE, and CPI in Euro area and Japan. Broken down by day: Monday - US Services PMI, New Home Sales (Consensus 4.7%); Singapore CPI; Tuesday - US Durable Goods (consensus 7.5%) and Consumer Confidence; Wednesday - Germany GfK Consumer Confidence; Thursday - US GDP 2Q (2nd est., expect 3.70%, below consensus) and Personal Consumption; Euro area Confidence; CPI in Germany and Spain; Friday - US Michigan Conf. (consensus 80.1), PCE (consensus 0.10%), Chicago PMI; Core CPI in Euro area and Japan (consensus 2.30%). Additionally, with a long weekend in the US coming up, expect volumes into the close of the week to slump below even recent near-record lows observed recently as the CYNKing of the S&P 500 goes into overdrive.
And the daily breakdown from Goldman Sachs:
Monday, August 25
- Events: US states congressional primary elections, Danish Finance Ministry Statement Release, Portugal Budget Report.
- United States | Markit US Services PMI (Aug P): Consensus 57.0, previous 60.8
- United States | New Home Sales MoM (Jul): GS 3.00%, consensus 4.70%, previous -8.10%
- United States | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (Aug): Consensus 13, previous 12.7
- Singapore | CPI NSA MoM (Jul): Consensus 0.40% (2.00% yoy), previous -0.70% (1.80% yoy)
- Taiwan | [MAP 4] Industrial Production YoY (Jul): Consensus 4.90%, previous 8.63%
- Israel | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (at 0.50%, in line with consensus) and do not expect any unconventional policy measures. Market pricing points to a 30% probability of a rate cut over the following three months. We believe the tone of the statement will remain dovish and highlight the soft July CPI print and the recent decline in inflation expectations. Regarding more 'hawkish' points, it will be interesting to see whether the Bank discusses the recent pick-up in credit growth and the development in financial stability risks.
- Peru | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (2Q): GS 1.50%, consensus 1.80%, previous 4.80%
- Also interesting: [DM] US Markit Composite PMI; Germany IFO Expectations; Spain PPI [EM] Hong Kong Trade Balance; India CA; Taiwan Money Supply; Czech Republic Consumer Confidence; Israel Unemployment; Brazil Trade Balance and Consumer Confidence; Mexico CA and Retail Sales.
Tuesday, August 26
- United States | Durable Goods Orders (Jul): GS 23.60%, consensus 7.60%, previous (r) 1.70%
- United States | [MAP 4] Durables Ex Transportation (Jul): GS 1.00%, consensus 0.50%, previous (r) 1.90%
- United States | [MAP 3] Consumer Confidence Index (Aug): GS 88.5, consensus 88.5, previous 90.9
- United States | [MAP 1] Richmond Fed Manufact. Index (Aug): Consensus 8, previous 7
- Singapore | [MAP 5] Industrial Production YoY (Jul): Consensus 3.70% (2.40% mom), previous 0.40% (-0.10% mom)
- Hungary | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (at 2.10%, in line with consensus), with the base rate unchanged for the first time after a two-year-long easing cycle, which reduced the base rate by a cumulative 490bp. The MPC signaled an end of the easing cycle after the latest, 20bp cut in July. At that time, the MPC said that policy rates were low enough to stimulate growth and ensure the return of inflation to the target in the medium term.
- South Africa | GDP YoY (2Q): Consensus 1.20%, previous 1.60% (-0.60% qoq)
- Also interesting: [DM] US FHFA House Price Index and S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index; Sweden PPI; Japan PPI and Small Business Confidence; New Zealand Trade Balance [EM] Philippines Trade Balance; Poland Retail Sales and Unemployment; Brazil Total Outstanding Loans.
Wednesday, August 27
- Germany | GfK Consumer Confidence (Sep): Consensus 9, previous 9
- Turkey | MP Decision: We expect a 25bp cut in the benchmark repo rate (to 8.00%, above consensus 7.88%) and in the overnight borrowing rate to 7.25% (below consensus 7.50%). We do not, however, expect any change to the overnight lending rate (in line with consensus). The language will probably be balanced but still leave the door open to further easing. The risk to our forecast would be on the downside ('on hold'), should market conditions deteriorate further in the run-up to the MPC meeting.
- Also interesting: [DM] US MBA Mortgage Applications; Italy Consumer Confidence; Norway Unemployment; Sweden Trade Balance and Economic Tendency Survey; Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator; Australia Construction Work Done; New Zealand Food Price Index [EM] Taiwan Leading Index; Hungary Unemployment; Mexico Trade Balance.
Thursday, August 28
- Events: Speeches by ECB’s Liikanen, Poland Central Bank’s Belka.
- United States | [MAP 4] GDP Annualized QoQ (2Q S): GS 3.70%, consensus 3.90%, previous 4.00%
- United States | Personal Consumption (2Q S): GS 2.40%, consensus 2.40%, previous 2.50%
- United States | [MAP 2] Pending Home Sales MoM (Jul): Consensus 0.50%, previous -1.10% (-4.50% yoy)
- Euro area | [MAP 4] Consumer Confidence (Aug F): Previous -10
- Euro area | [MAP 4] Business Climate Indicator (Aug): Previous 0.17
- Germany | CPI EU Harmonized MoM (Aug P): Consensus 0.00% (0.80% yoy), previous 0.30% (0.80% yoy)
- Spain | GDP QoQ (2Q F): Previous 0.60% (1.20%)
- Spain | CPI EU Harmonised YoY (Aug P): Previous -0.40%
- Philippines | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (2Q): Consensus 6.10% (2.20% qoq), previous 5.70% (1.20% qoq)
- Also interesting: [DM] US Jobless and Continuing Claims and Kansas Fed Manf. Activity; Canada Current Account; Euro area Money Supply and Economic and Industrial Confidence; Denmark Unemployment; Germany Unemployment; Italy Retail Sales, Business Confidence and Hourly Wages; Sweden Retail Sales; UK CBI Reported Sales; Australia Private Capital Expenditure [EM] China Industrial Profits; Hong Kong Retail Sales; South Korea CA; Thailand Capacity Utilization and Manufacturing Production Index; Hungary PPI; South Africa PPI; Turkey Consumer Confidence; Brazil Budget Balance.
Friday, August 29
- United States | [MAP 4] Chicago Purchasing Manager (Aug): GS 57.0, consensus 56.5, previous 52.6
- United States | [MAP 1] Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Aug F): GS 80.3, consensus 80.1, previous 79.2
- United States | [MAP 1] Personal Spending (Jul): GS 0.10%, consensus 0.20%, previous 0.40%
- United States | PCE Deflator MoM (Jul): GS 0.10%, consensus 0.10% (1.60% yoy), previous 0.20% (1.60% yoy)
- Canada | [MAP 5] Quarterly GDP Annualized (2Q): Consensus 2.60% (0.20% mom), previous 1.20% (0.40% mom, 2.30% yoy)
- Canada | Consumer Price Index (Jul): Consensus 125.9, previous 125.9
- Euro area | CPI Core YoY (Aug A): Consensus 0.80%, previous 0.80%
- Italy | CPI EU Harmonized MoM (Aug P): Previous -2.10% (0.00% yoy)
- Italy | GDP WDA QoQ (2Q F): Previous -0.20% (-0.30% yoy)
- Japan | Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY (Jul): GS 2.30%, consensus 2.30%, previous 2.30%
- Japan | Industrial Production MoM (Jul P): GS 0.80%, consensus 1.00% (-0.10% yoy), previous -3.40% (3.10% yoy)
- India | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (2Q): GS 5.30%, previous 4.60%
- South Korea | [MAP 5] Industrial Production YoY (Jul): GS (0.00% mom s.a.), consensus 1.80% (0.20% mom), previous 0.60% (2.90% yoy)
- Czech Republic | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (2Q P): Previous 2.60% (0.00% qoq)
- Poland | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (2Q F): Previous 3.20% (0.60% qoq)
- Argentina | [MAP 4] Industrial Production YoY (Jul): Previous -0.30% (2.10% mom)
- Brazil | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (2Q): GS 0.10%, consensus -0.30% (-0.40% qoq), previous 1.90% (0.20% qoq)
- Chile | [MAP 4] Manufacturing Index YoY (Jul): GS -2.00%, previous -0.70%
- Colombia | MP Decision: We expect a 25bp hike (in the Overnight Lending Rate to 4.50%, in line with consensus). This hike would be the fifth consecutive rate hike, and we expect the policy statement to signal a pause in the tightening cycle. The July minutes showed that the MPC is somewhat divided with respect to the cyclical position of the economy and the appropriate stance of monetary policy.
- Also interesting: [DM] Euro area Unemployment; Denmark GDP; France PPI; Norway Unemployment; Spain CA and Retail Sales; UK GfK Consumer Confidence and Hometrack Housing Survey; Japan Housing Starts, Construction Orders, Vehicle Production, Jobless Rate, Overall Household Spending and Retail Trade; Australia Private Credit; New Zealand Building Permits, ANZ Business Confidence and Credit Growth [EM] South Korea Business Survey; Thailand Trade Balance; South Africa Trade Balance and Private Sector Credit; Turkey Trade Balance; Argentina Construction Activity; Brazil Fiscal Balance; Chile Unemployment, Retail Sales and Copper Production; Colombia Unemployment; Mexico Unemployment and Bank Lending.
Source: BofA, Goldman Sachs