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Sanctions Costs: German Exports To Russia Collapse, "Risk 50,000 Jobs"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just a month ago, Germany's powerful business lobby threw its weight behind tougher sanctions against Russia (dropping its previous objections). It appears they are now regretting that decision. As The Federation of German Industry (BDI) reports today, exports to Russia in H1 2014 dropped 15.5% from 2013 and "may drop by as much as 25% - posing a risk to 50,000 German jobs." We are sure, as Zee Germans look across the pond at the S&P 500 hitting record highs, BDI's conviction that Russia's action must face significant consequences may just fall apart again.

 

Just 3 weeks ago, Germany’s powerful business lobby has dropped its opposition to tougher sanctions against Russia ahead of today’s crunch EU ambassador meeting in Brussels.

BDI chief Ulrich Grillo said sanctions could would come at a “painful” cost to European business, and to German exporters, but that the game had changed with Russia.

 

“The BDI and I personally have become convinced that the behaviour of the Russian government in the Ukrainian conflict of secession must have noticeable consequences for Moscow, ”

And now... (as Bloomberg notes),

Export of German-made machine spare parts in particular hit by sanctions due to possible dual-use nature of goods, BDI industry group’s East European Committee said today in e-mailed statement.

 

Sanctions also impacting German exports to states linked to Russia via excise agreements: 1H exports to Belarus drop 21%

 

2014 German exports to Russia may drop by as much as 25%, pose risk to 50,000 German jobs

*  *  *
Of course, this should come as no surprise... Is it time to ink that gas-for-land deal?

 

*  *  *

As Reuters reports,

German exports to Russia plunged in the first half of 2014, led by a sharp fall in car and machinery shipments, amid an escalating standoff between the West and Moscow over Ukraine.

 

The value of German shipments to Russia fell 15.5 percent to 15.3 billion euros in the first six months of the year, data from the Statistics Office showed. That was a sharper drop than in the first quarter of the year, when exports to Russia dropped by 13 percent.

 

German factories making cars and car parts saw the value of goods sent to Russia slump 24.4 percent, while the fall in machinery exports was 18.7 percent.

 

Exports of cars and car parts make up around a fifth of German exports to Russia and the industry could get a further battering in the coming months if, as a media reports suggest, Russia tightens retaliatory sanctions against Western nations to include a ban on car imports.

And the most ironic...

German imports from Russia climbed by 2.1 percent to around 20.3 billion euros in the first half of the year, driven by an increase in German purchases of coke and refined petroleum products.

 

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Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:05 | 5142052 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

This should be good for stocks. 

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:08 | 5142059 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

When is Germany going to break with our dear leader when they realize they are the ones getting screwed by sanctions?

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:16 | 5142094 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Nothing like cutting off your nose to spite your face... 

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:19 | 5142104 Publicus
Publicus's picture

Checkmate!

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:29 | 5142153 TungstenBars
TungstenBars's picture

That's what that rat meant by "Fuck the EU"

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:53 | 5142260 uno
uno's picture

"Fuck Germany" --- Federal Reserve concerning Gernamy gold

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:57 | 5142267 knukles
knukles's picture

"I don't want you to talk, Mr Bond, I want you to die"
     -Goldfinger (theory of cutting your nuts off in spite of....)

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 19:10 | 5142519 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Uber Haussemarkt!

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 19:15 | 5142537 Bingo Hammer
Bingo Hammer's picture

"Checkmate!"???

Nah, not by a long shot. I think the whole situation is a long way from that part of the game (& Publicus, I think that's the 5th time you've said the same innane thing on ZH threads...sorry it had to be said)

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 19:58 | 5142697 max2205
max2205's picture

War is for profits....Sanctions is for losers

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:18 | 5142095 the phantom
the phantom's picture

Achhh, meine arschloch!!!!

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:27 | 5142139 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

There was some world leader talking about boomerangs not too long ago. Can't recall exactly who that was though....

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:33 | 5142161 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

Vampyroteuthis ...

Your answer is NEVER.

Germany is a European subsidiary of US corporatocracy!

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:49 | 5142235 11b40
11b40's picture

I think you are wrong, but we will soon know.  Either Merkel bends, or her party will get replaced in the next election.  The Germans are a fairly pragmatic people, and with every passing day more of them realize they are the ones getting screwed.....as do more of their EU neighbors.

Autumn comes early in industrial Europe.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 18:46 | 5142447 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

11b40,

That 'Never' is open for question, of course!

Anyway, the post below should shed some light on this matter.

By Dubaibanker

Germany is already on the 'other' side. 

Bosch and Siemens have issued yuan bonds instead of EUR. This was perhaps the first German bond this year.

Germany will open the first hospital EVER, 100% foreign owned in China. http://www.chinamoneynetwork.com/2014/07/23/shanghai-ftz-to-welcome-mainlands-first-foreign-owned-hospital

Chinese are even supporting the German football team. As they said, China has 100m German fans which is more than the entire population of Germany :)

http://www.dw.de/chinas-football-fans-stayed-true-to-germany-in-world-cu...

Merkel just returned from China and she signed some agreements on auto and aviation like 2 new VW plants in China and buying 123 helicopters as well as financial cooperation. A new silk road is already under formation. : http://thediplomat.com/2014/07/china-and-germanys-special-relationship/

Frankfurt was just selected a yuan trading hub, even prior to London or Geneva, which says a lot.

There is no BRICS. BRICS is a joke.

There is only China which is important in the BRICS. The rest are all passengers, and India is the worst and should be thrown out before it splits the rest or causes its own decline to influence the others.

High level financial agreements have already been started after the recent trip this month between Germany and China: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/2014-07/08/content_17669307.htm

Air China and Lufthansa signed a deal too with potentially a JV in the future: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lufthansa-air-china-deal-paves-way-to-j...

German trade is already more than EUR 67bn last year.

France may piggy back along with Germany else France has no chance because it is becoming weaker every year. Although China has signed some deals earlier this year with French companies. The unemployment and leftist issues are too much in France plus their banks are weak except for BNP.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-23/putin-recalls-state-duma-vacation-planning-something-ukraine-situation#comment-4993822

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 01:50 | 5143785 king leon
king leon's picture

Germany is already on the 'other' side.

China's special relationship  is with Russia, China knows that the US is in the process of picking off countries in it's quest for world domination, now it's the turn of Russia for special treatment .China and Russia are strong together but if Russia were to fall then China is finished that is why BRICS is a big weapon to use against the West. China will welcome trade with Germany but nothing gets in the way of self preservation.    

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 03:53 | 5143874 Oracle 911
Oracle 911's picture

Yep, the BRICS is mainly about the survival of its members.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 18:38 | 5142416 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Germany cannot do anything about what is happening to them because America owns Germany as they are under our total control since  WW11, if we want all thier money we will take it ,they are just a slave colony.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 02:46 | 5143827 Pinstripe
Pinstripe's picture

As long Germany remains US occupied? Never.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:09 | 5142060 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Dupe

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:08 | 5142062 thethirdcoast
thethirdcoast's picture

BTFD!

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:10 | 5142067 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

Karma is a....

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 03:44 | 5143871 Oracle 911
Oracle 911's picture

...Merkel, definitively Merkel.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:11 | 5142068 Truffle_Shuffle
Truffle_Shuffle's picture

Quick...we must prop the drop!

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:13 | 5142077 souljaboy
souljaboy's picture

50,000? Is that a lot?

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:17 | 5142100 kowalli
kowalli's picture

multiplay by family members and etc...

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:37 | 5142178 KickIce
KickIce's picture

One is a lot if you're the one getting axed.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:38 | 5142180 FuzzyDunlop21
FuzzyDunlop21's picture

Its about equal to one Dow Chemical

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:42 | 5142198 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

"Let us give this another year before we reach a verdict."

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:15 | 5142082 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Someone linked this on another post; it is worth the watch. 

Interview with Sergei Glaziev - Advisor to President Putin:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cikvqdMRTTA

(I muted it and read the subtitles.)

Yes, he discusses American hegemony.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 19:30 | 5142596 acetinker
acetinker's picture

It saddens me that NO ONE in American politics inspires me with a sense of intelligent, contemplative and outright forthrightness as does Mr. Glaziev.  For that matter, same goes for Putin and Lavrov.  These men say what they mean, and mean what they say.

In contrast, our politicians have mastered the art of saying many words (stringing together sound-bite worthy platitudes) without conveying a single coherent thought.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 20:46 | 5142875 TungstenBars
TungstenBars's picture

I doubt most Americans could follow, or even understand, what those true leaders are saying. Americans have been devolved into only understanding emotionally packed short catch phrases. Anything with a remote sense of logic or analysis is far too high above their heads. 

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 06:55 | 5144037 acetinker
acetinker's picture

dup

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 06:56 | 5144040 acetinker
acetinker's picture

It's not that they lack the mental capacity, TB- although in some cases I have to agree.  What's frustrating is the number of people who are perfectly capable, but don't want to know.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:23 | 5142121 tony wilson
tony wilson's picture

good

how many usa bases in germany

is ramstein base not as big as a small town with cinema drive movies,dunken donuts and macca d.

 

the fucking ball less krauts gave the insane sataninic state of israerl 5 fucking nuclear submarines for free, still paying the rabbi compensation for rothschild hitler

for fuck sake these krauts are fucking slaves.

 

apart from that german engineering and optics are suberb

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:24 | 5142130 kowalli
kowalli's picture

how many usa bases in germany - 3

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:44 | 5142205 tony wilson
tony wilson's picture

how many german bases in usa usa?

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 18:39 | 5142417 kowalli
kowalli's picture

0

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:29 | 5142152 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

General Jack D. Ripper: Were you ever a prisoner of war?

Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: Well... yes I was, matter of fact, Jack. I was.

General Jack D. Ripper: Did they torture you?

Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: Uh, yes they did. I was tortured by the Japanese. Jack, if you must know; not a pretty story.

General Jack D. Ripper: Well, what happened?

Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: Oh, well, I don't know, Jack, difficult to think of under these conditions; but, well... what happened was they got me on the old Rangoon-Ichinawa railway. I was laying train lines for the bloody Japanese puff-puff's.

General Jack D. Ripper: No, I mean when they tortured you. Did you talk?

Group Capt. Lionel Mandrake: Ah, oh, no... well, I don't think they wanted me to talk really. I don't think they wanted me to say anything. It was just their way of having a bit of fun, the swines. Strange thing is they make such bloody good cameras.

 

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:30 | 5142154 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

Their porn has a certain funk to it too.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:49 | 5142233 tony wilson
tony wilson's picture

herr merkel hot hot pool porn

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sv-0XjrBVT0

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:50 | 5142240 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

God, I am not sure I want to click on the link...

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:51 | 5142249 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

Oh, for the love of God....

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 18:45 | 5142446 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Get Captain Ahab, stat.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:26 | 5142141 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Hey Merkel,  who'z yer daddy?

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:27 | 5142143 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Time to get the queen in a headlock.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:28 | 5142146 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

"If it weren't for Unintended Consequences, I'd have no consequences at all"

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:28 | 5142147 HamRove
HamRove's picture

I thought Germany went "all in" on sanctions because they liked getting bent over a desk, then penetrated and crapped on.

Isn't that a German thing? 

self degradation is a German pastime if I'm not mistaken 

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:30 | 5142155 Fuku Ben
Fuku Ben's picture

Global collapse on schedule and progressing nicely

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:33 | 5142163 trader1
trader1's picture

they knew sanctions would only be temporary.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:45 | 5142212 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

After reading that piece above, We can only wait with great angst the 911 outing.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:48 | 5142227 Oldrepublic
Oldrepublic's picture

It is time for the Germans to reread this post from the Saker

You wanna be Uncle Sam's bitch? Pay the price!
Mon, 08/25/2014 - 17:55 | 5142263 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

How many Russian jobs will be lost?

 

Germany is now the American punchbag for Russian sanctions.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 18:03 | 5142282 JamesBond
JamesBond's picture

And the effect on Germany's economy if all US bases were to close?

 

 

jb

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 18:05 | 5142286 Duc888
Duc888's picture

Germany will ditch the EU and join forces with Brics.

 

Nooooland : "Fuck the EU"

EU is USA's bitch

 

Bidens son is gonna find himself over there thumbing his flaccid member.

 

Easy to figure it out.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 18:06 | 5142290 Duc888
Duc888's picture

Jamesbond: "And the effect on Germany's economy if all US bases were to close?"

 

Short term pain, long term gain.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 18:20 | 5142344 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

The bad thing for Germany is that Russia is seeking out new sources for some of the specialized German products. If those sources offer value to Russia then Germany may never get those sales (jobs) back!

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 18:21 | 5142350 whyami
whyami's picture

It doesn't need a lot of intellegance to figure out the consequencies of any sanctions. Apparently the U.S. and EU are ruled by a bunch of twits!

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 18:26 | 5142365 luckystars
luckystars's picture

Germany has been a vassal State since they lost the war.

US military bases and all, nothing they can do or say.

poor Germany

 

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 22:34 | 5143318 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Must really piss them off seeing the kind of masters we elect for them every four years.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 18:33 | 5142395 jacship
jacship's picture

How's that CREASEFIRE going Anglia

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 18:49 | 5142452 smacker
smacker's picture

Tyler: "Sanctions Costs: German Exports To Russia Collapse..."

I love these in-your-face headlines. Tyler should publish a book of 'em just to cause annoyance and embarrassment to the political class who plod on regardless, wrecking their own economies and societies. Never before in the life of man has there been a class of loons so committed to destroying everything.

Is it not the case that virtually ALL international crises and wars are caused by politicians?

Is it not the case that if ALL politicians were wiped out, the world would be a much more peaceful place where people would liaise with each other, trading, buying/selling for mutual benefit??

We must surely be getting to the point of "peak politicans".

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 18:56 | 5142478 limacon
limacon's picture

Germany is unstable due to incomplete re-unification .
Old East Germany might well secede if things get tough.

See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2014/05/belarus-and-european-instability.html

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 03:17 | 5143854 RazvanM
RazvanM's picture

Yeah, the East Germany should secede from Capitalist Germany, get into the Eurasian Union and be free again. The Peasants and Workers in Eastern Germany should fight the chains of exploiters. There will be voluntaries to help it win the struggle against capitalism.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 20:10 | 5142514 10mm
10mm's picture

Boomerang choppin heads off besides ISIS.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 19:29 | 5142598 Rootin' for Putin
Rootin' for Putin's picture

I laugh when the obvious becomes apparent to the oblivious.

EU suckers.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 19:31 | 5142602 den_by
den_by's picture

The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia.

Otto von Bismarck

 

Do not expect that once taking advantage of Russia's weakness, you will receive dividends forever. Russian has always come for their money. And when they come - do not rely on an agreement signed by you, you are supposed to justify. They are not worth the paper it is written. Therefore, with the Russian is to play fair, or do not play. 
- Otto von Bismarck

Germans should have listened 

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 19:50 | 5142667 Mike Masr
Mike Masr's picture

Boomerangs are a bitch!

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 19:59 | 5142707 starman
starman's picture

Whole Europe is fucked! I repeat fucked! 

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 20:40 | 5142856 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Russia is the biggest single market in terms of potential sales. Of course the Russia market is growing and expanding and the real payout will come in the years ahead. Germany knows that, only Russia provides Germany with a almost guaranteed growing demand. Russia has the potential to be the next big consumer in Europe. But now, that is over. Russia has turned to other nations. Argentina has said they are ready to step up food production and export, Brazil opened dozens of new meat and food processing planting, hiring tens of thousands of workers just to fill the new Russian demand. Nuland said Fucke the EU, and so She has!

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 20:47 | 5142878 Herdee
Herdee's picture

I can imagine all the top brass of political leaders in Washington now laying back and all of them having a few drinks and laughing their stupid asses off at the dumb-ass Europeans for falling for the sanctions bullshit."Your either for us or against us".The U.S. jerk-off politicians don't give a flying-fuck about Europe because the U.S. doesn't trade with them.It's a NATO agenda you dummies,with the U.S. leading the cold war charge into the future.Like Victoria Nuland said,"you know,fuck the EU".How goddamn stupid are they in Brussels anyways?The U.S. spent 5 billion in there the last few years in order to bribe and pay-off all the neo-nazi goose steppers.

Mon, 08/25/2014 - 22:32 | 5143308 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Germans. They have a habit of fucking themselves.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 01:05 | 5143731 king leon
king leon's picture

Obama's "BITCH" will be out on her fucking ass if Russia hits back with another round of hard hitting sanctions against Germany. 

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 01:14 | 5143749 iceCube
iceCube's picture

"German exports collapse"??? Seriously? The drop in exports to Russia is a mere EUR 2.7 bil, roughly the equivalent of Volkswagen's revenues of 3 days! For a country that exports some EUR 1.2 trillion a year, a drop of 2.7 bil is not exactly life-threatening.  

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 03:23 | 5143857 Jano
Jano's picture

Yes, it is 02%.

But in terms of unemployed it is AT LEAST 50k.

50k unemployed in Germany is a rise by 1%.

A rise by 1% in unemployment is a rise of 5% for the Ministry of social affairs. This will impy of rising the taxes, higher taxes will damage the export competitivnes. This is a spiral , iceCube. You destabilize a running system, if you change the parameters only in one way, with   no option to tune also in other way.

Your math is wrong 1% of export does not equal to 1% of gov. budget, or free capital to invest.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 11:25 | 5144950 iceCube
iceCube's picture

I never mentioned anything about a government budget! What are you smoking? What a silly way to forecast a rise in unemployment - the same was said when the Sovjet Union collapsed and the Zzermans were afraid of zillions of cheap workers flooding the country. Every time the unions negotiate an increase in wages - unemployment is seen rising. Now that the Krauts are cutting down on their defense technology exports - unemployment! Switch off nuclear plants - unemployment! Jeez, an economy is supposed to be able to handle a drop in sales of such ridiculously small proportions.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 03:10 | 5143849 RazvanM
RazvanM's picture

The Nazi Germany deserves what it gets because it supports the Ukie Nazi in their indiscriminate killing of innocent Russian peasants and workers.

Look at the face in this article: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/26/world/europe/russia-ukraine.html. This is the face of a <strong>murderer</strong>. Thanks to heroic Russian volunteers that help their brothers in Ukraine to shake the chains of ukie oligarchs. Hope that the same happens soon in Amerika. The revolution has begun. The stupid fat americans need to be teach a lesson.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 03:26 | 5143859 Jano
Jano's picture

Germany is occupied since 70 years by zionist jews of USA.

Germany is not a free country, they even have no constitiution, only something, what is called Grundgesetz.

Jews can do with Germany, what they want, as everybody can see.

Germany will pay until 2099 to zionist jews and only after 2099, it will be released.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 05:18 | 5143936 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

What's with the one random junk on everyone in this thread?

some kid got lost to his facebook forum?

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 06:30 | 5144002 RazvanM
RazvanM's picture

Maybe somebody got lost on this forum: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28934213. It happends all the time for people to get lost.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:41 | 5144799 rbblum
rbblum's picture

US geo-politics is a basket case . . . siding with Ukranian politicians having Nazi tendencies . . . hysterically dictating to Russia how to play nice in their very own sandbox . . . and, whining incessantly to Europe as to how they must play on their playground . . . all the while the US is having a political breakdown . . . in the rough of a barren golf course . . . void of truth, justice and the American way.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!