Government Confidence Survey Spikes To 7-Year Highs, Near Record Divergence From UMich Sentiment

Tyler Durden's picture


The Government's Conference Board Consumer Confidence printed an astounding 92.4 - the highest since October 2007 and handily beating expectations of a modest retracement. The headline beat was driven by exuberance in the moment (up from 87.9 to 94.6) as expectations for the future dropped. Plans to buy a home and car rose but major appliances dropped as did expectations for jobs and income. For those in the middle-incomes, things got a lot worse but less-than-$15k and more-than-50k cohorts surged. What is most worrying on an historical basis is the gaping divergence between this government survey and the UMich confidence - near record highs.


Come on...


The "Rich" (Fed) and The "Poor" (Benefits and subprime credit) are exuberant... middle class not so much...


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Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:11 | 5144638 RiskyBidness
RiskyBidness's picture

Are you fuckin kidding me!!  

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:18 | 5144676 IANAE
IANAE's picture

... remember, "Hope is a better choice" (just ask POTUS)

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 14:39 | 5145952 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture



"...less-than-$15k and more-than-50k cohorts surged..."

Well, duh!

If you sit home watching Oprah, collecting Food Stamps, TANF, WIC, MediCaid, SSI and Section 8 Housing; life is just peachy!

Now where's my Obamaphone and free water???!!!

["It's Free! Swipe yo' EBT!!!"] ]


Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:20 | 5144680 PeeramidIdeologies
PeeramidIdeologies's picture

Don't act so surprised, governments the world over are playing their roll perfectly. Just wait till you see what comes next.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:21 | 5144687 chunga
chunga's picture
Miniprod Forecasts Increase Chocolate Ration?
Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:25 | 5144702 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Government cheese in cold storage since 1987 for all!

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 11:34 | 5145009 Dr Strangemember
Dr Strangemember's picture

I just popped a solid bottle of MadDog 20/20 in celebration.  Please, come join me... there's plenty of the good stuff for all!

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:44 | 5144810 Babaloo
Babaloo's picture

Is "Tyler" saying the Conference Board is a government agency?  I don't understand what he's saying when he says "Government Confidence Survey."

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 11:05 | 5144880 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

Elections are coming up.  Time for all "economic indicators" to spike until after the elections.

If Dear Leader Obama says that the economy is booming then it is booming.  The pain that you feel from Dear Leader's economy is not real...

< /s >

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:18 | 5144663 DarthVaderMentor
DarthVaderMentor's picture

George Orwell reminded us that there'd be propaganda days like this. Does this confidence index include the confidence to find lost IRS emails or get their fiction statistics propaganda aligned acoss all propaganda channels? 

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:16 | 5144664 SMC
SMC's picture

The propaganda continues...

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:16 | 5144667 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Keep the BS going.  As the Federal Reserve heads do, Pile the government stat  BS higher and Deeper (PhDs). 

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:20 | 5144681 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Told you. Yellen was goin up my FAFSA.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:21 | 5144682 clade7
clade7's picture

Wonderful News!  As a small business owner 'middle classer'  I thought my personal confidence downtrend was the result of the depressing effects of alcohol!

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:35 | 5144766 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Speaking of the middle classes, I am totally confident about this: the American middle class is an endangered species on its way to join the dodo bird.

I'm almost as confident that alcohol consumption will rise as the USSA becomes more and more like the USSR. Cheers!

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:23 | 5144694 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Interesting oscillations. Looks like the government has been successful in dampening the amplitude, but the frequency will be the downer. Compressing.

Next coalescing is going to be a doozy. Sometimes things fall doen and take a long time to get back up.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:23 | 5144695 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

just figure out how mnay ES, DOW and NDX points 2 more handles down on the VIX will be, month end/month start coming so look out above!

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:24 | 5144699 thegreygrater
thegreygrater's picture

And pigs fly.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:26 | 5144700 TabakLover
TabakLover's picture

When do we start getiing SOMA rations?

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:24 | 5144703 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

This shit cracks me up. The country is falling apart, the world is laughing at us, yet they try to tell us that confidence are at seven year highs. One can almost smell their desperation for people to believe this bullshit.  

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:28 | 5144726 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Never underestimate just how stupid the average Joe is, Dr. They'll believe anything....absolutely anything.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:52 | 5144832 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Yeah, go and take that subprime auto loan or home loan with a 540 FICO score.

If you have a car and a title visit Titlemax and get bent over by another legal  loan shark.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 11:54 | 5145104 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

So that smell isn't Teen Spirit?

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:28 | 5144725 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

just listened to the b-berg radio interview with conference board prez Lynn something, what a fucking Obama ball licking lying cunt... 

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:31 | 5144737 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Raise rates today, why not I'm convinced....

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:36 | 5144764 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture


A govt survey consists of braindead civil servants at the water cooler saying:

. . . "yo, man, you feelin' conf'dant t'day, yo?"

. . . "shit, 'bout wut, man?"

. . . "dunno.  'bout keepin' yo 120k/yr job & shit, man."

. . . "fuck yeah, man!  we got 'bama in da whyte howse, man! brutha don't fire no brutha, man!"

. . . "oh yeah, man.  dat mean conf'dance is fuckin' up, man.  shiiiit."

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 11:10 | 5144901 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

Whoa...  I heard that EXACT conversation between some wealthy gubmint employees just the other day.  They were on their four hour lunch hour at the time.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:38 | 5144784 passenger_pidgin
passenger_pidgin's picture

What is most worrying on an historical basis is the gaping divergence between this government survey and the UMich confidence - near record highs.

Don't worry.  Within a few years, the U Mich will post confidence numbers just as absurdly high.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:43 | 5144805 josephpetronyc
josephpetronyc's picture

just by looking at the graft this could og on for 3-4 years

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:55 | 5144850 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

and this of course would explain another perfectly time ramp in the Fraud markets in the last hour of trading in London....

again, like almost every fucking day.....

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:55 | 5144854 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture



Conference Board is corporate-funded, not Government.


That said, I wonder if their statistics are being biased the same way the official Unemployment Rate data are.  If people get the Survey in the mail and have given up looking for work do they give up filling out surveys as well?


The Conference Board survey showed "Jobs Plentiful" rising from 15.6% to 18.2% (Jobs Hard to Get was flat at 30.6%) which historically implies a lower Unemplyment Rate.  But since the falling Unemployment Rate is bogus then this makes the Confidence Survey look bad too.  Is it possible the sample set is becoming tilted / biased by labor force dropouts??



Tue, 08/26/2014 - 10:57 | 5144862 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture




I contacted Conference Board 6 months ago and asked if they had Historical data on % Respondents to their surveys and they said no.  Whatever.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 11:49 | 5145064 Loucleve
Loucleve's picture

they keep forgetting to survey those 92 million that have Dropped out of the Labor Force.

sneaky devils.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 11:44 | 5145040 jacship
jacship's picture

Ann Arbor MI.  always did live in another treehugging Utopian World

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 11:59 | 5145135 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Well then...

There you have it.

I'm going all in on Mortgage Backed Securities.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 12:16 | 5145255 thethirdcoast
thethirdcoast's picture

As a Michigan alum, I just want to apologize to everyone here on ZH.

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 12:41 | 5145410 sbenard
sbenard's picture

It's all of Obama's legions of leeching lemmings -- his collectivist cousins -- that are so confident!

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 14:40 | 5145985 KansasCrude
KansasCrude's picture

Its all part of the Potemkin Village props so the FED can do whatever it wants to.  Stat after Stat that has no relation to reality ginned up to justify whatever......a Parallel un-reality.

Courtesy of those who know best! 

Tue, 08/26/2014 - 20:49 | 5147319 RMolineaux
RMolineaux's picture

The Conference Board is not a government agency.  It is an independent NGO funded by large corporations.

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