Government Confidence Survey Spikes To 7-Year Highs, Near Record Divergence From UMich Sentiment

Tyler Durden's picture

The Government's Conference Board Consumer Confidence printed an astounding 92.4 - the highest since October 2007 and handily beating expectations of a modest retracement. The headline beat was driven by exuberance in the moment (up from 87.9 to 94.6) as expectations for the future dropped. Plans to buy a home and car rose but major appliances dropped as did expectations for jobs and income. For those in the middle-incomes, things got a lot worse but less-than-$15k and more-than-50k cohorts surged. What is most worrying on an historical basis is the gaping divergence between this government survey and the UMich confidence - near record highs.


Come on...


The "Rich" (Fed) and The "Poor" (Benefits and subprime credit) are exuberant... middle class not so much...


Charts: Bloomberg

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RiskyBidness's picture

Are you fuckin kidding me!!  

IANAE's picture

... remember, "Hope is a better choice" (just ask POTUS)

Pool Shark's picture



"...less-than-$15k and more-than-50k cohorts surged..."

Well, duh!

If you sit home watching Oprah, collecting Food Stamps, TANF, WIC, MediCaid, SSI and Section 8 Housing; life is just peachy!

Now where's my Obamaphone and free water???!!!

["It's Free! Swipe yo' EBT!!!"] ]


PeeramidIdeologies's picture

Don't act so surprised, governments the world over are playing their roll perfectly. Just wait till you see what comes next.

chunga's picture
Miniprod Forecasts Increase Chocolate Ration?
JRobby's picture

Government cheese in cold storage since 1987 for all!

Dr Strangemember's picture

I just popped a solid bottle of MadDog 20/20 in celebration.  Please, come join me... there's plenty of the good stuff for all!

Babaloo's picture

Is "Tyler" saying the Conference Board is a government agency?  I don't understand what he's saying when he says "Government Confidence Survey."

Creepy A. Cracker's picture

Elections are coming up.  Time for all "economic indicators" to spike until after the elections.

If Dear Leader Obama says that the economy is booming then it is booming.  The pain that you feel from Dear Leader's economy is not real...

< /s >

DarthVaderMentor's picture

George Orwell reminded us that there'd be propaganda days like this. Does this confidence index include the confidence to find lost IRS emails or get their fiction statistics propaganda aligned acoss all propaganda channels? 

SMC's picture

The propaganda continues...

yogibear's picture

Keep the BS going.  As the Federal Reserve heads do, Pile the government stat  BS higher and Deeper (PhDs). 

q99x2's picture

Told you. Yellen was goin up my FAFSA.

clade7's picture

Wonderful News!  As a small business owner 'middle classer'  I thought my personal confidence downtrend was the result of the depressing effects of alcohol!

GeezerGeek's picture

Speaking of the middle classes, I am totally confident about this: the American middle class is an endangered species on its way to join the dodo bird.

I'm almost as confident that alcohol consumption will rise as the USSA becomes more and more like the USSR. Cheers!

BandGap's picture

Interesting oscillations. Looks like the government has been successful in dampening the amplitude, but the frequency will be the downer. Compressing.

Next coalescing is going to be a doozy. Sometimes things fall doen and take a long time to get back up.

spastic_colon's picture

just figure out how mnay ES, DOW and NDX points 2 more handles down on the VIX will be, month end/month start coming so look out above!

TabakLover's picture

When do we start getiing SOMA rations?

Dr. Engali's picture

This shit cracks me up. The country is falling apart, the world is laughing at us, yet they try to tell us that confidence are at seven year highs. One can almost smell their desperation for people to believe this bullshit.  

Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Never underestimate just how stupid the average Joe is, Dr. They'll believe anything....absolutely anything.

yogibear's picture

Yeah, go and take that subprime auto loan or home loan with a 540 FICO score.

If you have a car and a title visit Titlemax and get bent over by another legal  loan shark.

shovelhead's picture

So that smell isn't Teen Spirit?

Squid Viscous's picture

just listened to the b-berg radio interview with conference board prez Lynn something, what a fucking Obama ball licking lying cunt... 

Bill of Rights's picture

Raise rates today, why not I'm convinced....

Smegley Wanxalot's picture


A govt survey consists of braindead civil servants at the water cooler saying:

. . . "yo, man, you feelin' conf'dant t'day, yo?"

. . . "shit, 'bout wut, man?"

. . . "dunno.  'bout keepin' yo 120k/yr job & shit, man."

. . . "fuck yeah, man!  we got 'bama in da whyte howse, man! brutha don't fire no brutha, man!"

. . . "oh yeah, man.  dat mean conf'dance is fuckin' up, man.  shiiiit."

Creepy A. Cracker's picture

Whoa...  I heard that EXACT conversation between some wealthy gubmint employees just the other day.  They were on their four hour lunch hour at the time.

passenger_pidgin's picture

What is most worrying on an historical basis is the gaping divergence between this government survey and the UMich confidence - near record highs.

Don't worry.  Within a few years, the U Mich will post confidence numbers just as absurdly high.

josephpetronyc's picture

just by looking at the graft this could og on for 3-4 years

Kaiser Sousa's picture

and this of course would explain another perfectly time ramp in the Fraud markets in the last hour of trading in London....

again, like almost every fucking day.....

taketheredpill's picture



Conference Board is corporate-funded, not Government.


That said, I wonder if their statistics are being biased the same way the official Unemployment Rate data are.  If people get the Survey in the mail and have given up looking for work do they give up filling out surveys as well?


The Conference Board survey showed "Jobs Plentiful" rising from 15.6% to 18.2% (Jobs Hard to Get was flat at 30.6%) which historically implies a lower Unemplyment Rate.  But since the falling Unemployment Rate is bogus then this makes the Confidence Survey look bad too.  Is it possible the sample set is becoming tilted / biased by labor force dropouts??



taketheredpill's picture




I contacted Conference Board 6 months ago and asked if they had Historical data on % Respondents to their surveys and they said no.  Whatever.

Loucleve's picture

they keep forgetting to survey those 92 million that have Dropped out of the Labor Force.

sneaky devils.

jacship's picture

Ann Arbor MI.  always did live in another treehugging Utopian World

shovelhead's picture

Well then...

There you have it.

I'm going all in on Mortgage Backed Securities.

thethirdcoast's picture

As a Michigan alum, I just want to apologize to everyone here on ZH.

sbenard's picture

It's all of Obama's legions of leeching lemmings -- his collectivist cousins -- that are so confident!

KansasCrude's picture

Its all part of the Potemkin Village props so the FED can do whatever it wants to.  Stat after Stat that has no relation to reality ginned up to justify whatever......a Parallel un-reality.

Courtesy of those who know best! 

RMolineaux's picture

The Conference Board is not a government agency.  It is an independent NGO funded by large corporations.