Treasury Curve Collapse Signals Multiple Expansion Exuberance Is Over
Thanks to buybacks, multiple expansion has been the driver of equity market strength as non-economic actors know one thing - buying stocks at record highs pays better than 'investing' in Capex or growth. However, the Treasury market's yield curve is sending a message loud and clear that multiple-expansion is due to end. As Wells Fargo's Gina Martin Adams notes, "Index P/E is likely to fall," as the spread between 10Y and 2Y yields compresses. Historical data shows the P/E ratio contracted in seven out of eight periods when the curve flattened since 1975.
As Bloomberg adds, Martin Adams expects the S&P to close 2014 -7.5% from here at 1850 (tied with Deutsche's David Bianco for lowest prediction among 20 strategists).
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