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Art Cashin Warns Bulls: "History" Not On Their Side

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yesterday, the venerable Art Cashin had 12 simple words of wisdom for 'traders'. Today he has a more direct warning for those watching the levitation and counting their 'wealth effect' gains...

 

"Unfortunately, history gives us a kind of muted picture of it, that if you have high volume, you get follow-through very easily.

 

If you have low volume and you go into September, we've only had big carry-through a few times,"

 

Hhmm..

*  *  *

Trade (or hedge) accordingly

 

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Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:51 | 5149363 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

in the new normal, the next month is always the best month to own and/or buy more stocks.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:54 | 5149375 power steering
power steering's picture

Yawn. Time for an ebola update. They find that missing plane yet?

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:53 | 5149658 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Ebola has come to the US.  I'm pretty sure I have it.  I put my symptoms into WebMd and it said it was Ebola (#42 on the list of possible diseases).  Or it could be the allergies I get every single year around the beginning of September.  But I'm pretty sure it's Ebola.  It's been nice knowing you all.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:59 | 5149678 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

#42: The answer to life, the universe, and everything...

P.S.: If I were dying of Ebola, I would want to fulfill my dream of seeing the world. I'd get on a plane and fly to as many different cities as I could...

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:13 | 5149776 Headbanger
Wed, 08/27/2014 - 17:00 | 5151193 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

We're gonna miss you, NoDebt.

See you later!

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:57 | 5149391 Dr Strangemember
Dr Strangemember's picture

No way I can drink more than Art... no way!

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:03 | 5149410 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Hey! People have pink skin and red noses for several reasons!

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 14:42 | 5150397 L G Butz PhD
L G Butz PhD's picture

check out Art's liver:

"Enough already, you're killin' me!"

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:12 | 5149461 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Our illustrious executives have decided to switch our 401-k plan to another administrator.  We were informed today that we will have a blackout period, where no transactions or changes can be made, from Sept 26 to October 27.

Let's see:

10/29/1929  Black Tuesday

10/19/1987  Black Monday

09/14-10/11/2008  Largest and ongoing Financial Fraud in History

10/09/2012  Apple Crash

05/06/2010  Flash Crash....the outlier

09/26-10/27/2014  ??  Suggestions?

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:18 | 5149484 power steering
power steering's picture

You should have let me bid on your plan

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:23 | 5149513 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Forgot

10/28/2011  MF Global

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:38 | 5149591 JRobby
JRobby's picture

It always ends bloody. Why would this one be different?

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 14:48 | 5150446 mrdenis
mrdenis's picture

My company did the same thing in the winter of 1988...switched from Merrell to fidelity they went to all cash for 60 days Jan ,Feb ....naturally that was when we had the "new money effect in the market rose 10% ,which we all missed out on .....looking back it probly cost me a pretty sum ..... 

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 15:34 | 5150738 Augustus
Augustus's picture

Switch to 100% PHDG for the month of change over.  It may lag on the upside, but could profit if there is the crash while you are locked it to a position.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:13 | 5149779 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

exactly.

 

what people like him are not accounting for is the fact that this time is different.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 14:12 | 5150157 mpath
mpath's picture

September is usually a good month--may turn out they way. But Woody Dorsey said sentiment is at extremes--and expects a hard turn to hit around the 9th of September. 

http://www.sentimenttiming.com/

 

 

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:55 | 5149364 power steering
power steering's picture

And Rosenberg just went balls in bullish

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:52 | 5149365 q99x2
q99x2's picture

It's software. The FED can do whatever they like with US stock markets. They have been so I don't get what Cashin is saying.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:57 | 5149387 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Hardware too.  HFT computers make this false reality possible.  And a toothless SEC, CFTC and other so-called regulators.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:08 | 5149430 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

They can't print oil or gold though.  So there's that.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:38 | 5149599 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> They can't print oil or gold

Seems like they've printed a bunch of gold to me.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:46 | 5149628 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Fool's gold

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:54 | 5149370 saints51
saints51's picture

illusion=reality

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:55 | 5149377 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Carry Me Through to Old Virginny

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:56 | 5149384 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The fed is still printing and our currency is still dying, no? Then history is not a good guidepost.... at least not the history of this country. 

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:57 | 5149385 saveUSsavers
saveUSsavers's picture

Cashin soldout LONG AGO he's all FLUFF- idiot !

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:44 | 5149622 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Couldn't be more wrong, along with Santelli, he's one of CNBC's greatest (and only) treasure.  

Tells it like it is, never cheerleads, isn't afraid of technicals.  A long, lost great uncle.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:02 | 5149710 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Probably means he's about to kick the bucket like Mark Haines (who I also enjoyed watching sometimes, especially when he was ripping the "business plans" of .com companies apart in the late 90s).

Meanwhile, some sniveling, legalistic lib like Andrew Ross Sorkin.... he'll probably live until he's 150.  He's the one who insisted they put up a chart that showed the difference between fair value and futures price in the morning.  Because, obviously, nobody could ever figure out how to subtract one from the other in their head to get the difference.  I mean, if you can't do simple subtraction in your head (or on a piece of paper if you need to write it down), why the hell would you be watching a channel about trading and investments?  What a tool.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:58 | 5149398 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Markets crash in a day.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:00 | 5149402 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

When this pig finally does crash, it won't be in a day, it will be in the blink of an eye.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:03 | 5149408 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

One morning everyone will wake up, fix their coffee and take a shit, turn on the tube, and there has been a 30% correction because some bank made billions of dollars worth of bad loans.  

Of course this time it will be trillions and likely a 50% correction.

A revert to the mean, if you will, and that mean lies on the bake of the fiat dollar, worth nothing but the paper it is printed on.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:58 | 5150040 hootowl
hootowl's picture

......or less!

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:58 | 5149399 Chippewa Partners
Chippewa Partners's picture

It looks like they will never stop going up until they don't.  Fleckenstein said it best yesterday.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:06 | 5149426 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

When a trader realizes we are witnessing a hyperinflation of a currency, a bond bubble, a stock market bubble, and a repression of precious metals then we can talk about what is going on.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:34 | 5149906 GoatHerder
GoatHerder's picture

Kinda like thinking I could eat at Taco Bell three days in a row with no consequences.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:03 | 5149414 Tjeff1
Tjeff1's picture

Yawn, did ISIS blow up Chicago yet?

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:09 | 5149437 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Rahm needs to relocate his family to Tel Aviv first.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:43 | 5149618 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

N0- we need him in Chicago when ISIS nukes the city. Sad thing is that Rahm will get tipped off beforehand and will likely be in Tel Aviv.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:05 | 5149420 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

I'm not even mad anymore but this feels like the fucking twilight zone.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:11 | 5149442 Jim Shoesesta
Jim Shoesesta's picture

I been "cashin" in the whole bull market since 2009, while Bozo Circus has been calling for the end of the world all over this site. 

Its bull until it aint no more, and nothing changed that yet.  

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:27 | 5149868 GoatHerder
GoatHerder's picture

Bear with me because I have a perfect analogy as I am just following your logic.

When I was in the Army my unit would get very bored in the field. We devised a entertaining game of chance called the box of death. We would find various creatures such as scorpions and spiders and throw them in a box and place bets on who would live before we shook the box. One day we found a toad and placed him in the box and trust me no one bet on the toad. We shook the box and low and behold he was the survivor.

Moral of the story sometimes the frog wins against all odds. Kinda like a black swan with a little slime. 

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:11 | 5149449 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

But history, as much as it pisses me off, seems will be on bulls side today and likely tomorrow as well. No amount of no-QE talk can put a ding in these phony markets upward bias. And it's not surprising with all the present QE flowing in daily with rates at -0- forever or until Armageddon whichever happens first.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:21 | 5149501 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Reality is a fact, the printing press is an illusion of power.

Look around you - it is already falling apart.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:33 | 5149568 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Things are falling apart for whom, the dirt peasants? Top 5% never had it better and from what I can actually see, they're not going to let that end anytime soon.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:11 | 5149451 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

I don't think Art has ever experienced a time such as this when the markets are under complete state control.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:19 | 5149813 CoolClo
CoolClo's picture

"I don't think Art has ever experienced a time such as this when the markets are under complete BANKSTER control."

There, fixed it for you.....

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 14:28 | 5150268 saveUSsavers
saveUSsavers's picture

Cashin WON'T SAY it's under state control, he's a sellout long ago, they fking muzzled him, just enough to breath. Santelli still talks truth.

RETIRE, CASHOUT !

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:22 | 5149495 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Most bulls think they are outsmarting the system and this warning is a bullish signal.  You know that whole wall of worry thing.  No one ever remembers what happens at the top of the wall of worry.  If Japan has taught us one thing, it is that no amount of money can keep stocks up after QE forces them up.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 23:35 | 5152535 maxamus
maxamus's picture

And the bears have been wrong for what, 6 or 7 YEARS now???

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:22 | 5149507 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    You'll know Art is serious when he switches from Jonny Walker black to Jonny Walker red...

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:32 | 5149565 Maplehood
Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:43 | 5149621 pomlad5
pomlad5's picture

that old fuck still alive? I remember him on St. Patrick's day 2009 on CNBC. He was a bull. In June as S&P was up 30% he was telling on fuckin cnbc about a dead cat bounce and a technical correction.......Since than he was warning for correction and crash. Fucking dickhead and fucking UBS pays him well. FUArt fuck you UBS

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:47 | 5149638 JRobby
JRobby's picture

UBS redefines the term "lower than scum"

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:47 | 5149985 Raoul_Luke
Raoul_Luke's picture

Mr. Market will tell us when the bull market is over.  These market prognosticating gas bags on TV are just a bunch of huckster snake oil salesmen.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 18:33 | 5151542 Homer E. Rectus
Homer E. Rectus's picture

The charts would mean more to me if the were better labelled. For instance, what are the black bars representing. I guess it is volumm, still labels would help.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 23:32 | 5152527 maxamus
maxamus's picture

Art Cashin is as big of an idiot as Cramer only in a different way.  Every time he talks he will say "well, it might go up or it might go down, we'll have to see".  He is on the fence more than any politician.

Thu, 08/28/2014 - 04:48 | 5152846 fibonacci's claus
fibonacci's claus's picture

hey bulls.  its like a wet fart you don't want to admit was wet.  and now its dripping down your leg and into your socks.  or maybe its like a bolonga sandwich in a dirty ashtray.  or is it more like a dirty sanchez.  after snowballing your partners partners baby gravy.  i guess pick which ever applies closest to your situation.   love, the bears ( no fibs allowed)

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