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CBO "Revises" Its 2014 GDP Forecast, Hilarity Ensues (As Always)

Tyler Durden's picture


The gross, in fact epic, incompetence of the Congressional Budget Office when it comes to doing its only job, forecasting the future state of the US economy, has previously been extensively documented here (and here and here and here). This incompetence is in the spotlight once again this morning with the CBO's release of its latest forecast revision of its original February 2014 projection.

And while every aspect of the revised projection has changed, in an adverse direction of course, the punchline is the chart below: the CBO's revised projection for 2014 GDP. It's one of those "no comment necessary" visuals.

Surprising? Hardly. After all the CBO is swarming with indoctrinated Keynesian cultists whose only achievement in life is to be wrong about everything (and then to blame the Fed for not "easing enough"). Here is how the CBO "explains" this 50%+ cut in its forecast in just 6 months:

CBO has lowered its projection of real growth of GDP in  2014 from 3.1 percent to 1.5 percent, reflecting the surprising economic weakness in the first half of the year.

Which as other Keynesian talking heads have already made quite clear was due to snow. That's right: over $100 billion in forecast economic growth "evaporated" from the US economy because it... snowed.

The good news? The CBO refuses to forecast the "harsh weather" for the foreseeable future, and has kept all of its 2015 and onward GDP estimates as is. So when things go horribly wrong to the CBO's forecast, which is 100% guaranteed to happen, the CBO can again blame "surprising economic weakness" because, well, everyone else is doing it.

Those who wish to waste their time can find the source here.

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Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:25 | 5149251 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

hey ...its an honest mistake..;-)

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:28 | 5149265 espirit
espirit's picture

How much did these charts cost us?

I mean WTF - lmao.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:32 | 5149280 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Incompetence? Tyler why do you provide cover for blatantly criminal activities?

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:39 | 5149304 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



It's OK.....that's a hell of a lot of pressure to be under.


Mulligans all around.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:42 | 5149321 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Perhaps they could save some money if they didn't use colored charts...

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:53 | 5149660 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture



I will offer to takeover the CBO's job of forecasting GDP for the reasonable sum of just $1 million per year.

I guarantee that (just like the CBO) actual GDP will fall within 100% of my projections.

So, what say you?


Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:13 | 5149782 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

Well this should be great fucking news for the CBO and the rest of the Keynesian Creeps:

There's a verrrrry looooong, cooooold winter a comin'....

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 14:07 | 5150100 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

I have a cost saving measure.  Replace the CBO with a dartbboard of GDP numbers and a drunk frat kid, I guarantee higher accurancy.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:46 | 5149340 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

I believe they're on their 6th mulligan and they still aren't out of the tee box.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:45 | 5149968 mccoyspace
mccoyspace's picture

One and Done, baby. Just look at the chart.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:37 | 5149298 Zirpedge
Zirpedge's picture

GDP  is an obsolete relic of the idustrial age. The post industrial era is beyond producing objects and viewing ourselves as consumers. We are world citizens who need to understand our place in the universe and seek happiness and contentment in the manufactured landscape of central planning.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:40 | 5149315 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

OK, sure.  But the polite thing to do is play along and let the economists feel like they're doing something important.  We all have a role to play in the new world order.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:43 | 5149329 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Excellent post, Al. We are all being vastly impolite...

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:40 | 5149319 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Teats on a boar hog and all that.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:49 | 5149351 Dr Strangemember
Dr Strangemember's picture

Not sure which is worse, the annual Hurricane Predition # or CBO expectations?  Whichever, why bother???

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:52 | 5150010 doctor10
doctor10's picture

In most parts of the USA being so wrong professionally is a pretty quick route to a judge and jury -up on malpractice charges.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 14:55 | 5150496 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Or at least getting permanently fired.  (I don't think we have the political will yet to actually hold lawbreakers accountable to legal punishment - as we've seen plainly with Obama, Holder, and Bush's crop of lovelies, etc.)  And we know how many bills are written on the backs of these awesome CBO estimates, and how many have been in the past (Medicare, Medicaid, on and on...)  Any wonder the USG over $100Tr. in current and future debt liabilities, with these boys and girls counting?

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:26 | 5149254 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

More hockey sticks than the Stanley Cup.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:29 | 5149263 joego1
joego1's picture

CBO "Central Bullshiter Operations"

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:31 | 5149268 Lendo
Lendo's picture

Loving the "LOL!" caption for 2014.  

Thit chart will piss many people off.  Especially the jamokes touting the recovery.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:30 | 5149270 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I don't think there is one institution left in this country that isn't  completly corrupted and fucked up. If a big dumb guy like me from Indian knows where things are headed then surely they know the truth as well. Which can only mean that when it's really bad you have to lie.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:32 | 5149281 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

Do bears still shit in the woods in Indiana too?

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:38 | 5149297 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Sixteen years and I've never seen a bear here. I did see a fine herd of deer this morning and they looked nice and healthy. It's going to be a good harvest this year.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:40 | 5149318 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture


Well, when the show up...pretty sure they will be shitting in the woods. 

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:42 | 5149324 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Or in the yard if the spirit moves them, so to speak.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:58 | 5149697 TuPhat
TuPhat's picture

You probably have bears in the Tetons and the article you posted said they are getting close to Indiana but Texas ain't got no bears and we don't want any.  We'll shoot them faster than we would an alien.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:11 | 5149444 arby63
arby63's picture

Trust only your local gun store, auto repair shop and butcher. Question everything after that.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:19 | 5149485 Dame Ednas Possum
Dame Ednas Possum's picture

Everything is going exactly according to their (TPTB) plan.

Buckle-up for the next great redistribution of wealth up the food-chain.

“In the magical universe there are no coincidences and there are no accidents. Nothing happens unless someone wills it to happen.”

William S. Burroughs

Keep stackin' brethren...and happy boating.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:35 | 5149284 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

With all the pretty red, white and green (and downward GDP revisions), I thought it was an article about Italy. Madonna!!

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:35 | 5149292 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Just wait until it snows again. The we'll really be in trouble.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:38 | 5149301 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

This is terrible!  What if it snows this winter?  What the fuck happens to the economy then?  Damn this weather phenomenon!

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:42 | 5149312 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Farmer's almanac says it's going to be a cold one this year.:




Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:41 | 5149317 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



What? We just got through winter this summer.....where has the time gone?

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 15:00 | 5150534 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Where's the huge economic surge they promised coming out of that? ;)

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:42 | 5149325 Cattender
Cattender's picture

Jesus.. SNOW!?!? OMFG.. that could fuck up Everything for the Entire Year!

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:48 | 5149350 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

It's global warming.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:39 | 5149305 reset71
reset71's picture

Is it just me or do the years start running backward on the chart?  I think the CBO be smokin' the strong stuff while on the job.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:48 | 5149327 IOU
IOU's picture

Time travel predicted in the last chart!

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:45 | 5149336 TomGa
TomGa's picture

But, but, but Ambrose Evans-Pritchard said the US recovery was underway at 3% !


Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:46 | 5149341 Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

Maybe Ambrose might now more fully appreciate Lars point of view of American economic statistics...

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:46 | 5149343 q99x2
q99x2's picture

FRAUD is dangerous not hilarious.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 15:47 | 5150781 JRobby
JRobby's picture

But when everyone knows it's fraud? Heads nod up and down: "that seems more correct, yes". It's fuck total Kabuki, theater of the absurd. Yes comical.


Like brains numbed by novocaine.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:54 | 5149353 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"CBO has lowered its projection of real growth of GDP in 2014 from 3.1 percent to 1.5 percent, reflecting the surprising economic weakness in the first half of the year."

Don't you see the brilliance in this approach?  They have effectively lowered the bar so the MSM can proudly proclaim GDP growth beat this lowered estimate (if it happens).  Further, if GDP growth is not on pace to beat this lowered estimate, the Ministry of Truth can simply reformulate GDP until it does.  Lowering the bar now makes it that much easier for the Ministry of Truth to fudge the data to get GDP over the bar.  Voilà!  The MSM could then declare this to be more evidence that economic growth has reach escape velocity.  Stawks to da moon!


Wed, 08/27/2014 - 15:41 | 5150765 JRobby
JRobby's picture


This truly is a moment in history.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 15:54 | 5150851 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Wait'll they see the surprising economic weakness in the second half of the year----then they gone shit themselves. Reality is a bitch when you been dreamin.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:51 | 5149362 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

If they guess within 5% of reality they all get cigars.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:56 | 5149389 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

If they guess above 5% they get golden parachutes.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 14:58 | 5150523 Phil Free
Phil Free's picture

Otherwise, it's time for golden showers..

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:11 | 5149445 johnjkiii
johnjkiii's picture

Hell, if they get the direction right, the get cigars.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 11:56 | 5149381 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

They are soo good at projections!  Green shoots abound!

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