CBO Thinks Millions Of Americans Aren't Going To Sign Up For Obamacare

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Robert Murphy via Mises Canada,

In June the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) updated its forecasts regarding the “individual mandate” component of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as “ObamaCare.” Recall that the individual mandate is the tax levied on Americans who commit the outrage of refraining from buying health insurance. You can click the link for the full list of the (ascending) fine structure, and the list of exemptions. But in this post I want to draw your attention to a shocking table from the CBO report:

CBO on Individual Mandate

Let’s walk through some of these numbers, all of which refer to CBO’s estimates for Calendar Year 2016. (The penalties would actually be assessed in 2017 when these people pay their CY 2016 taxes.) First of all, the “3.9″ at the bottom of the first numerical column says that 3.9 million people will actually pay the relevant penalty to the government. (Earlier in the document CBO explains that some people will not have health insurance, and will not be eligible for an exemption, but may simply evade their legally owed tax payment.)

Keep in mind that this figure includes dependents on behalf of whom others might actually make the payment. For example, if a family of 4 decides to forego health insurance altogether and does not qualify for the poverty exemption, then the person filing income taxes for the family has to pay the penalties because of everybody. But that family would show up as 4 people in the 3.9 million total, not 1 person.

However, one of the notes under the table (not shown above) explains: “Individual penalty payments are classified by the income of the tax-filing unit.” So in our example, if the head of household earns $100,000, while the 5-year-old twins earn $0, then–my understanding is–each of the 4 going into the total calculation would be classified as having an income of $100,000 for the purposes of the above table.

Finally, note that the poverty level is defined in this way: “In 2016, the federal poverty guidelines (commonly referred to as the federal poverty level) are projected to equal about $12,150 for a single person and about $24,750 for a family of four.”

Now that we have an idea of what the table shows, here are some fun facts:

==> In total, the government expects to collect $4.2 billion in one year from individuals because they don’t have health insurance.


==> 1 million people who earn less than twice the poverty level will be fined for not having health insurance in 2016.


==>  This group of people–earning less than twice the poverty level–accounts for 25% of those who will be fined.


==> The government will extract $500 million in penalties from this group. These people are too poor to buy health insurance, remember.


==> Drilling down further, 200,000 people will be fined who earn less than the poverty level. These 200,000 people whom the government says are living below the poverty level will be forced to pay the IRS a total of $100 million in fines just for 2016. They also will not have health insurance, remember.

What is not shown in the above table–though the report itself explains–is that the total number of nonelderly uninsured Americans projected for calendar 2016 is some 30 million. This figure includes illegal immigrants and people who are exempt for various reasons from the mandate.

Isn’t it interesting that the “universal coverage” provided by the “Affordable Care Act” will still yield–according to the government’s own projections–almost 4 million Americans who will prefer to pay an average tax of more than $1,000 to the government for 2016, rather than buying health insurance that year?

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LawsofPhysics's picture

My guess is that the CBO already knows this to be true.

max2205's picture

I'll be damned if I'll ever pay that FSA tax...fuck them!

JRobby's picture

Execute a payment plan next April 15 assuming process to become XPAT is well along

froze25's picture

Is there any news on this?  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-21/next-obamacare-scandal-taxpayer-funded-bailout-insurers   LA Times reports that the "Obama administration has quietly adjusted key provisions of its signature healthcare law to potentially make billions of additional taxpayer dollars available to the insurance industry if companies providing coverage through the Affordable Care Act lose money." In other words, yet another taxpayer funded bailout.

kchrisc's picture

That was the way the insurers wrote Obamacare to be.

An American, not US subject.

Richard Chesler's picture

How appropiate that such corrupt system be named after that POS.


Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

Of course there will be a bunch of politicians who promise to waive the tax indefinitely and pretend to be heroes for it. It's almost like that was planned or something... Meanwhile... add another severely underfunded government program to the list as the world is deciding to ditch the USD. Sounds like a plan for suicide (or success depending on your goals). Have a nice day.

lordylord's picture

"How appropiate that such corrupt system be named after that POS."

It's not Obamacare.  It's the affordable care act.  As you can see, the name is ironic.  Just like the Patriot Act or any other shit bill these traitorous assholes are paid to vote for.

PGR88's picture

Oh, you will pay it.  Do you have a bank account?   The IRS wil put a freeze on it.  Good luck getting any of your money released then.

John_Coltrane's picture

The penalty can only be applied to your tax REFUND!

Solution:  Make sure you owe the IRS so there is no refund!  I do this everyyear even before Obamacare.

The IRS has no means to collect other then through the refund mechanism.  It was the only way even the DEMs could pass this atrocity through congress.   Remember, no refund due, no way to apply the penalty, no enforcement mechanism.  They won't collect even a fraction of their projections as people respond to incentives, so start marking up the dependents on your W4 if you haven't already done so.

By the way anyone stupid enough to "loan" the government interest free money by overpaying their taxes in advance deserves to lose the funds-independent of Obamacare.

666's picture

"CBO Thinks Millions of Americans Aren't Going To Sign Up Fot Obamacare"

Well. whaddya know - they finally got something right! Was it due to the Law of Averages?

The_Dude's picture

Yeah...and millions more that weren't supposed to be included (read "illegals") are now getting covered on your dime.



Quit surfing ZH and get back to work, you Tax Slaves...you got other peoples healthcare to pay for!

WillyGroper's picture

That is because we are now the NAU & the border is now Guatamala.

yrad's picture

So, moar tax revenue for .gov? What idiot thinks this was not the intended outcome?

lordylord's picture

About 50,000,000 who pulled the handle for Obummer didn't.  They thought it would be free.

reset71's picture

Health insurance is free and everyone is covered and Obama is not a bloviating idiot.

Syrin's picture

It's not a bug, it's a feature !!

ebworthen's picture

I'm not buying that shit.

It is unaffordable to begin with, and I'm not paying for someone else's birth control or abortion. 

Besides that it isn't insurance.

Insurance is something affordable you pay in case of a calamity, not an unaffordable calamity in and of itself.

ebworthen's picture

"The Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) requires health plans to cover—at no cost—certain preventive-health services, including prescription birth control. That means that most women who use prescription birth control will get it with no copay at the pharmacy."


"Health insurance companies in California may not refuse to cover the cost of abortions, state insurance officials have ruled in a reversal of policy stemming from the decision by two Catholic universities to drop elective abortions from their employee health plans."


Thanks for the link, I replied before you completed your post.  I don't want to pay for that either.

Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Yea, Anna Gorman really spreads it on thick.

The CuntNewsNetwork is all for it.

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

If I woman cannot afford birth control, which is really not that expensive, what makes her possibly believe having a child would be more economical? Probably because children are cash cows for some that others have to subsidize. We decided not to have an additional child for the simple reason we could not afford it. I guess this isn't an inhibition to others.


WillyGroper's picture

What I fail to understand is why there's no co-pay like any other pharma. Is formulary viagra allowed the same coverage? Seeding of more gender war?

Compared to a kid, BC is cheap, but not so much if you don't have the money. We know it costs the pennies to make. I know an OBGYN that sends his expired samples to India. Said they work fine, but illegal here. 

Our leaders are rabid.

ebworthen's picture

My Sister thought it was outrageous that insurance would pay for ED drugs (Viagra, Cialis) but not for birth control.

The fact that one was so a Man could have intercourse, and the other so a Woman could prevent pregnancy - was completely lost on her (and she's a Doctor).

WillyGroper's picture

Guess it's lost on me too. Women don't get pregnant by themselves (under normal hetero circumstances). Most here bitch about the FSA so I fail to see why BC is such a big deal. If one wants sipher the cost $25 per pill vs $60 per month. Yea, makes perfect sense for all those tax dollars seized. If either med was NOT priced outragously there would be no need for the insurance loop. People could pay OOP.

Birth control can be prescribed for numerous things. Ovarian cysts are one example. 

Both genders need to quit splitting hairs about the dr/patient relationship & MYOB. There's plenty of tax dollars being pilfered. BC/V are nothing more than another hot button topic to divide. 

Fuck the religous grounds argument. 

Syrin's picture

Don't forget sex change operations.   That's covered too now.   Soon we'll all get "free" Chevy Volts !!!

kchrisc's picture

"It is unaffordable to begin with, and I'm not paying for someone else's birth control or abortion. "

With respect, but if your only or main objection is "birth control or abortion," they have already won.

An American, not US subject.


hootowl's picture

But, but,...but, ......who's gonna pay for Ovomit and The Mooch to flip-flop genders after their reign of terror has ended?

RiskyBidness's picture

I will not fucking comply!!  

RiskyBidness's picture

Fuck....I can't afford this shit.....I am too busy BTFD!!

Zeena's picture

Come on folks, it's for the kids! (the illegal immigrant kids, btw, but it's for the CHILDREN!!!!)



Ariadne's picture

WOW. A college graduate figured that out, did they? Better expedite Common Core, stat. They missed one. 

Dr. Engali's picture

Like all other CBO forecasts, they will be shocked,....... shocked! when they have to revise their numbers for the worst.

NOTaREALmerican's picture

As long as I can get unlimited free replacement hips when I'm a OldFart I don't care (git yer hands off my Medicare you hippy libertarian, that's not socialism I'm ENTITLED TO THAT!!!)

PrecipiceWatching's picture

The vast majority of "old farts" are certainly entitled to "free" replacement hips.

Individually, most have paid more than their fair share into a corrupt Collectivist system.


But this simple concept is clearly beyond your fathomable depth, in that you are a perenially angry, obsessed, ignorant, monotonic POS who hates pretty much everything.

youngman's picture

What is the penality for lying on the application..seems millions of people are doing that?????

toady's picture

That is interesting. My accountant (wife) can wring every penny out of the tax code, and it's amazing how low she has driven our reportable income, but even she can't get it low enough for free obamacare. We still pay $88 a month. If anyone is all the way down to free obamacare they're eating beans & rice, drinking nothing but water, and living in a shithole

hootowl's picture

How about just ignoring this OvomitdeathCaremonstrosity.  Grow a pair.  Nullify it by just ignoring it.


Starve The Beast!!!.

toady's picture

Got my mind on my money and my money on my mind.

kchrisc's picture

Mandated healthcare is not in the Constitution and in fact the 10th says:

The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.  

and the 16th. says:

The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration.

So since healthcare is not "income" it cannot be a tax and is since it is not also mandated in the Constitution it is Unconstitutional. Because it is one of my duties not to comply with Unconstitutional laws, I will not be a part of it.

An American,not US subject.


The most powerful weapon the American people have is Rejection.


The system of fraud and theft that has been built up upon the backs of the American people is dependent upon out backs. Withdrew our backs, and the whole thing collapses. This is our greatest weapon.

Quit Paying--put it into food, and precious metals, etc.They stole what ever "debt money" they loaned you in the first place )fractional reserve banking) and soon you won't be able to pay them anyways.

Quit Obeying--If they are in violation of the Constitution then they are not legitimate anyways.

Quit Playing--Quit being a tool for them to use.


The Four Rs
Rejection: Quit paying, quit obeying , quit playing
Revolution: It is inevitable, so prepare, as they are.
Retribution: Is there really any place for these sociopaths and criminals in a
restored civil and Constitutional society?!
Restoration: Restore the Constitutional republic.


Everybodys All American's picture

Impeach the Marxist con man Obama and roll the whole damn thing back.

kchrisc's picture

"Impeach the Marxist con man Obama and roll the whole damn thing back."

With respect, but by observations of Obama's actions, one can determine that he is really working for the banksters and big business, in addition for Israel--he's fascist. I would also go so far as to say that he actually believes nothing. He takes his orders, spouts what he is told to spout and then goes golfing or doing Reggie.

Next, Obama is nothing more than the visible puppet in the DC US Punch and Judy puppet show. The real players and voices are the ones pulling his, and the rest of the DC US' pol and crat strings. I.e. nothing will change if he goes except the face and voice of the puppet they have replace him.

An American, not US subject.

Dr. Engali's picture

Marxist and fascists are the same thing, they both steal your money at the end of a gun barrel.

Everybodys All American's picture

The guy is right out of the Saul Alinsky play book. Anything to fool and create chaos. Obama's father was a Marxist and so is this nut. Whether he uses corporations for his ultimate goals does not make him a fascist in my view. Bare in mind that historically nearly all Marxist leaders have always asked and received universal health care for said country. Once a country owns your health they own you. They own your vote. They own everything eventually. They will tell you what to eat, what to think, what to read, and who to believe. Sounded crazy 6 years ago but look how far we have progressed toward these ends. Do you see the signs? I certainly do. All I ask is people connect the dots which many have begun to do. What do you think he meant by being a transformational president.

sosoome's picture

The "Constitution" LOL. How quaint.

If anyone cared about it, Roberts would long since be impeached for usurping the function of the House.


Inthemix96's picture

KchrisC, says this all the time, and since 2008 I have personally done so.

Reject it, refuse it, do not comply, do not play, and certaintly, do not fucking PAY.

Make yourself as small a target as possible, and withdraw your 'Consent'.  An 'Act', or a 'Statute', are not 'LAW'.

These cunts know we are coming, so stop giving your 'Consent' to something you know is 'Unjust'.

They are terrified of us you know.  Simply put, there are far too many of us to subdue, and they know this.

Tick, fucking Tock


Zeena's picture

Can't happen fast enough.

hootowl's picture

Inthemix;  You got it right.

40 years in the underground economy and still truckin'.  Grow a pair.  Join the underground economy and keep what you earn.


Starve the Beast!!!