Ebola Devastates West Africa: Revenues Down; Markets Not Functioning; Projects Canceled; GDP Plunges 4%

Tyler Durden's picture

In all of its infinite wisdom, the "market", which stopped reacting to newsflow or discounting the future some time after the Fed officially announced it would centrally-plan it indefinitely, decided that just like the trade war against Russia is irrelevant only to find itself a week ago with Europe staring at the abyss of a triple-dip recession, so it decided that the worst Ebola outbreak in history is a non-event, even though it has put virtually all of western Africa on indefinite lockdown, and as Reuters reports, is "causing enormous damage to West African economies and  draining budgetary resources." In fact the damage from Ebola to Africa is already so acute, it is expected that economic growth in the region will plunge by up to 4 percent as foreign businessmen leave and projects are canceled, according to the African Development Bank president said.

"Revenues are down, foreign exchange levels are down, markets are not functioning, airlines are not coming in, projects are being canceled, business people have left - that is very, very damaging," African Development Bank (AfDB) chief Donald Kaberuka said in an interview late on Tuesday.

"The numbers I have had vary from one percent to four percent of GDP. That is a lot in a country with a GDP of US$6 billion," Kaberuka said, when asked to quantify the impact.

That's ok, surely the Central Bank of Nigeria will just print some "growth" to offset the 4% GDP plunge. Oh wait, wrong continent for such moronic drivel. Here businesses actually have to, well, "business" in order to generate cash flow and to grow, and where printing prosperity and wealth out of thin air is still a novel concept.

And while all the world's central banks can push the CTRL-P button and mask the simple fact that global trade is crumbling around the world, which despite the happy all time high stock market facade, is getting dragged down ever deeper into currency and trade wars...

... sooner or later the reality that globalization is rapidly unwinding will finally come to the surface. And while the sudden stop of the German economy in the aftermath of the Russian sanctions may not be the stick the breaks the camel's back, said stick may be, appropriately enough, in the continent much more preferred by camels.

Here is what else is going on:

As transport companies suspend services, cutting off the region, governments and economists have warned that the worst outbreak of the hemorrhagic Ebola fever on record could crush the fragile economic gains made in Sierra Leone and Liberia following a decade of civil war in the 1990s.

Air France, the French network of Air France-KLM said on Wednesday it has suspended its flights to Sierra Leone following advice from the French government. France did not recommend suspending flights to Nigeria and Guinea.


Liberia has already said that it would have to lower its 2014 growth forecast, without giving a new one.

Sierra Leone Deputy Minister of Mineral Resources Abdul Ignosis Koroma also told Reuters that the government would miss its target of exporting $200 million in diamonds this year because of the Ebola outbreak, versus $186 million last year.


"There is no way the government can reach this amount since the districts where diamonds are mined are not Ebola-free, especially the main diamondiferous region Kono," Koroma said. Miners, he added, are too afraid to go to alluvial diamonds pits in the country's Ebola-striken east.

But while nobody cares about the cataclysm the locals find themselves in because clearly, they are  "out of sight", one firm that will be furious is De Beers: "Diamond trade had also been stopped by tough border controls to curb the spread of the virus."  Which means the world's billionaires will have to spend more on bling, and we can't have that.

Actually we jest: nobody cares about Africa - it is on its own.

The AfDB this week donated $60 million toward essential supplies to help train medical workers and purchase supplies to fight the outbreak, which has already killed more than 1,400 people, mostly in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia.

Sadly Africa needs hundreds of millions more,  money which it doesn't have... money which represents several minutes of the Fed's daily market manipulating POMO liquidity injection.

And since it won't get it, the epidemic could soon lead to an all out economic depression in west Africa: "Kaberuka described the health care systems of the affected countries as "overloaded". He said he hoped the donation would stop money being diverted away from other programs such as the education and agriculture, thereby reducing the long-term damage from the outbreak."

"We need to begin now to plan what could happen next when Ebola is beaten," he said.

Sure, but let's get there first, and also let's hope that the epidemic, which shows zero signs of abating, doesn't lead to another slashing of GDP other places: places which the general ice-bucket challenge-obsessed public actually does care about. Because printing antibodies is not one of the Fed's "shotgun approach" specialties.

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_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

And this is just the beginning...

AlaricBalth's picture
Bankers Devastate United States: Revenues Down; Markets Not Functioning; Hidden Inflation; GDP propped up by central planners; Zombie Bankers devouring middle class... 
Publicus's picture

Nature's victory over human continues unabated.

wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Whats the ticker of the biotech stock that is going to make the cure??  That should be up another 32000% this year.

kliguy38's picture

you really have no idea how bad this chit could get here.....WTF do you think will be bagging groceries...who will be bringing food in.....no ERs in hospitals will open.......and on and on

quasimodo's picture

You assume that there will be groceries to be bagged.

Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

You assume that there will be groceries to be bagged.

More than half of the food in the US comes from outside the country. This could be more of a reality than one expects.

NeoRandian's picture

We can grow in America enough corn to keep the world fat and diabetic forever. Americans will just have to do without their imported darjeeling tea and forbidden rice.

kaiserhoff's picture

4% hell.  They will be lucky if it's only 40%.   West Africa won't be much on its own.

Ya'll can fight over my share of the Ebola-bananas.

p00k1e's picture

Oranges come from Africa too.  I’ve purchased them from Kroger.  African oranges are dryer than U.S. oranges. 

willwork4food's picture

More importantly, COCOA BEANS come from the Ivory Coast. Think chocolate. How can their GDP be so low when candy has been through the freakin' roof?

derekiz's picture

Tekmira Pharmaceuticals - TKMR

Canadian company with the only possible cure.

Currently in trials but ahead of everyone else.

Do your own DD.

Matt's picture

Mapp is the company whose product has been used in humans - ZMapp is the product:

"ZMappTM is the result of a collaboration between Mapp Biopharmaceutical, Inc. and LeafBio (San Diego, CA), Defyrus Inc. (Toronto, Canada), the U.S. government and the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC)."

TeethVillage88s's picture

Good time for a hostile take over.

FED or CTCC could buy the whole African Continent one piece at a time for less than a $1 Trillion USD.

Then you start the process of phasing the Chinese Leases or Rights out.

Sudden Debt's picture

Just look at how people in a chinese subway react when somebody looks sick:



NeoRandian's picture

Bullish. Everything there will be much more valuable once everyone there is dead.

Theta_Burn's picture

When the dead and dying number in the 10's of thousands, not even Hollywood could script this horror.

Its gonna suck...

Sudden Debt's picture

Flight personel just got the right to refuse to board on planes to Africa if they don't want to while holding full pay.
This came after airlines tried to force the personel to continue flying on africa.

kaiserhoff's picture

Common sense of ordinary people is finally getting some traction.


Peak Finance's picture

Ummm, you sure about this?

That's ok, surely the Central Bank of Nigeria will just print some "growth" to offset the 4% GDP plunge. Oh wait, wrong continent for such moronic drivel. Here businesses actually have to, well, "business" in order to generate cash flow and to grow, and where printing prosperity and wealth out of thin air is still a novel concept.

Forgot about the Zim dollar that fast?  

reset71's picture

I was thinking the same thing.

SemperFudge's picture

Right. Nigeria could debase its currency like anyone else could. But I think even the most money-printingest of countries would be more concerned with solving an epidemic heath crisis than printing more money, which doesn't do any good anyway if everyone is dying. 

rwe2late's picture

Not to worry,

US bio-war professionals have been keeping a close eye on developments,

from the very beginning of the outbreak,

and even before it started.

The research program, occurring in Sierra Leone, the Republic of Guinea, and Liberia—said to be the epicenter of the 2014 Ebola outbreak—has the announced purpose, among others, of detecting the future use of fever-viruses as bioweapons.


dasein211's picture

It's mutated. The WHO has to know. That's why the evacuation from the Sierra Leone lab an how one of the epidemiologists got it without coming in direct contact with infected patients.

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

The continent's immune system is rejecting AFRICOM.

Urban Redneck's picture

It would be nice if the referenced paper had actually been published. However, neither the referenced source (http://www.sciencemag.org/) nor http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=Goba%20A%5Bauth%5D has anything newer by Dr. Goba than the paper which demonstrated that ebola has existed (undetected) in West Africa for years.

ibtimes... 'nuf said.

cougar_w's picture

Can't rule out that someone studying ebola got caught stupid. It certainly has been catching a lot of hospital workers, as we now know.

Doesn't mean much in the big picture.

camaro68ss's picture

The beginning of the "it's not Ebola" virus with a 90% kill rate

SilverRhino's picture

It's Lupus ....

.... with a 55% kill rate.

armageddon addahere's picture

You mean "I Can't Believe It's Not Ebola"?

NEOSERF's picture

Wait til it mutates and jumps into the air...World War Z...

Sudden Debt's picture

Even worse! What if there's a shortage of diamonds?
How will we get laid at newyear?

SilverRhino's picture

<Completely tasteless joke>

Dude, she's getting a roofie.

</Dell guy's creepy voice>

</completely tasteless joke>


Theta_Burn's picture

Have a "don't have ebola" hat on?

Matt's picture

De Beers has massive stores of diamonds, the scarcity of diamonds is artificial. Also, there are artificial diamonds that are flawless, or can be coloured as desired.

armageddon addahere's picture

Don't worry, the DeBeers cartel has a 100 year stockpile of diamonds, held off the market to keep prices up.

NoDecaf's picture

They should ask Ebola patients if they would like to participate in the ice bucket challenge to raise some money for ALS and to show that Ebola is nothing to worry about.

trader1's picture

the disease is spreading more than it should because the diagnostic test kits have quality issues.

short of a vaccine ready to manufacture and distribute, a precautionary solution to contain the spread of ebola is to quarantine anyone suspected of coming into contact with ebola-infected patients for at least 21 days.  

shit is gettin' real...

FREETOWN, Aug 27 (Reuters) - A British nurse infected with Ebola may have caught the deadly virus after playing with a one-year-old boy whose mother had died in a treatment centre but who himself had initially tested negative for the disease, a medical colleague said.

William Pooley, 29, the first Briton to contract the virus, was flown back to Britain from Sierra Leone at the weekend and is receiving the experimental drug ZMapp in a London hospital in an attempt to save his life.

Close to 1,500 people have so far died across Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone in the worst epidemic in the disease's 38-year history. Symptoms of the highly-contagious virus include vomiting and bleeding from the eyes and ears.

During his time as a volunteer at a clinic in remote eastern Sierra Leone, Pooley developed a bond with a baby boy named Sellu Borbor thought to have caught the virus from his mother's breast milk, according to his supervisor Finda Josephine Sellu.

Like other health workers, Pooley initially took precautions handling the infant since his mother was diagnosed with the virus and later died. But he played with him freely after the baby tested negative for the disease, she said.

"Pooley and some other nurses fell in love with the boy and would play with him in their free time," Sellu told Reuters.

Borbor was tested again after he developed a fever and tested positive for Ebola the second time around. He died on August 24 -- the same day that Pooley was diagnosed.


Miffed Microbiologist's picture

This report doesn't mention the initial testing methodology. This is important. Most rapid screening is specific but not but not very sensitive. Our flu screen only catches about 60% of cases but is vastly cheaper than PCR so it is utilized first. If negative, we reflex to PCR which can detect a few copies/ml. I am assuming they are using the cheaper method, possibly an ELISA, which is giving people false security.

Considering this little boy was not showing symptoms when the nurses were playing with him and I assume they were not sharing vast amounts of bodily fluids, this kind of places the CDC and the WHOs statement of transmission into question.


trader1's picture

i just finished watching contagion for the first time right before that post.

i'm not a miffed microbiologist, so your word is more qualified than mine on the subject matter ;-)

although, i'm starting to wonder how many more false negatives are still out there infecting the people around them.


lagos is still a big unknown after sawyer came into town infecting people.  and now the schools are closed until october (they were supposed to begin the coming week).

the other day, india flew back home over 100 of their people from countries with ebola outbreaks.


wee-weed up's picture



the other day, india flew back home over 100 of their people from countries with ebola outbreaks.

Now that was fukin' brilliant!

kaiserhoff's picture

Good catch, Miffed.

Reality intrudes.  So much for the theory that children don't get Ebola.  One of the early Marburg cases was a ten year old Danish boy. 

ceilidh_trail's picture

The first documented case in this current outbreak is thought to have been a toddler who then infected other family members.