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Get Back To Work Mr. Hollande; French Jobseekers Surge To Record High

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Despite all the 'promises' French joblessness has risen every month since April 2011... July's jump is the 2nd biggest sinmce April 2013 and at 3.424 million is a fresh record high. One can only hope (though good luck with that) that the new cabinet - same as the old cabinet - will turn things around. With 80% of French people believing that Hollande cannot fix the economy, we suspect things get worse before better...

 

 

French ministers are piling the pressure on Draghi to do something...

  • *VALLS SAYS NEW FRENCH GOVT STANDS FOR ECONOMIC CLAIRITY
  • *VALLS ECB NEEDS TO GO FURTHER IN FIGHTING INFLATION
  • *VALLS SAYS NEW FRENCH GOVT STANDS FOR ECONOMIC CLAIRITY
  • *VALLS SAYS LOW INFLATION THREATENS EUROPEAN PROJECT

Charts: Bloomberg

*  *  *

The French reshuffle (via SocGen)

The cabinet reshuffle announced by French PM Valls was small and in line with our expectations. This is clearly a centerleft cabinet comprised of like-minded politicians, without the leftwing ‘rebels’. Memb rs of the new government should be more in sync with President Hollande’s economic choices this time around. This is embodied by the appointment of Mr Macron as Minister of Economy and Industry.

We continue to believe that the government will maintain a stable majority at the National Assembly despite the rebel politicians. The first test of this will come with the confidence vote, probably on Friday. In April, PM Valls gained an overhelming majority in his first confidence vote. But this time, the ruling majority may be weakened, although the Fifth Republic, founded in 1958, can still function. The odds of the government falling are very small. Indeed, such an event would trigger a general election, which would be political suicide for most Socialist lawmakers and their allies.

A center-left cabinet of like-minded politicians

The cabinet reshuffle was small, with most ministers keeping their jobs, notably Mr Sapin as Finance Minister, Mr Fabius as Foreign Minister and Mrs Royal as Minister of Energy and Ecology. The rebels, Mr Montebourg, Minister of Economy and Industry, Mr Hamon, Minister of Education and Mrs Filipetti, Minister of Culture, did not retain their positions, as expected.

The two main appointments concern Mrs Vallaud-Belkacem as Minister of Education and Mr Macron as Minister of Economy and Industry. Mrs Vallaud-Belkacem, 37, is a bright politician born in Morocco. This is the first time a woman has been appointed as the Minister of Education, an important post. Mr Macron, 36, was the Deputy General Secretary of the Elysée from 2012 to 2014 in charge of economic policy and is known to be very close to President Hollande. He was a former banker and embodies the center-left line, a supply-side driven economic policy. He is well versed in structural reform, having participated in the Attali Commission in 2008. Put simply, he represents the antithesis of Mr Montebourg, and there is no doubt that Mr Sapin and Mr Macron are on the same page.

Overall, we believe that the cabinet reshuffle will help reduce policy uncertainty at the domestic level. The message related to Mr Hollande’s economic programme was muddied by conflicting statements made by several of his government ministers in the past, by Mr Montebourg in particular. The hope is that the new and more compact government will help restore confidence among economic agents and investors.

A weakened majority, but the Fifth Republic is still functioning and remains stable

The question is whether the departure of leftwing rebels Mr Montebourg and Mr Hamon will cost the parliamentary majority. We think not. This should be confirmed fairly quickly with the confidence vote later this week (probably on Friday). The government needs a majority of 289 sea s (out of 577) at the National Assembly to run the country. In April’s confidence vote, PM Valls received 306 votes, although 11 Socialist members abstained. This suggests that the government has sufficient room to manoeuvre despite the potential for new defections. In particular, the Socialists and the Center-Left (Parti Radical de Gauche) represent 308 seats, while most Green MEPs (about 10 out of 17) could continue to vote in favour of the ruling coalition.

The Fifth Republic, established by General de Gaulle in 1958, has proven very stable indeed. No PM has ever been thrown out by Parliament. All cabinet reshuffles have been decided by the president. The main reason for this lies in France’s Dissolution Weapon: the President can dissolve the Assembly whenever he wants. Against the current backdrop, a genera election would doubtless lead to a crushing defeat of the Socialist party and would be political suicide for most Socialist politicians. This is why we believe a no confidence vote is very unlikely. Moreover, the ruling party has a very powerful weapon if it wants to pass bills that could be challenged by rebel politicians: Article 49.3, which the Hollande administration has yet to use. Article 49.3, known as "the responsibility commitment", allows the government to push through any bill without subjecting it to a vote. For the bill to be rejected, a no confidence vote would be required, but in that case, the government would fall, and this has not happened since the creation of the First Republic in 1958.

 

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Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:11 | 5149454 Dr Strangemember
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The unemployed job seeker numbers will only increase with each African immigrant that is granted entry into France.  Why is this even a story???????

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:34 | 5149571 Fíréan
Fíréan's picture

 Why is this even a story???????

It's a distraction for the average American (usa) reader here. Time for a bit of "socialst" bashing,  as they believe the government of the country and the president to be of said political persuasion. And ever since the French first pointed out that 9/11 was a false flag ( just about the day after it happened, and later proved to be right ) France has become a target for of ridicule for the USA media, now they have a "socialist" President. \Why not Spain or Portugal or Greece, or the Netherlands, or any other Euro country ?

It won't make a shits worth of difference to the average reader because they are not French and they won't have anything to do about it, and not many French people read this blog ( see the statistics, if they can be trusted)  but will push the right buttons for a brief moment of titillation and self righteousness, and brting you back tomorrow for more clicks.  These articles come around in cycles, ffill-ins with nothing much new to add.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:38 | 5149602 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Please, pretty much every engineer that's worth a shit has pointed out the problems with the "official" 911 storyline.

Unfortunately, most are on government contracts, directly or indirectly, so they STFU.

 

 

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:41 | 5149608 Dr Strangemember
Dr Strangemember's picture

All I can say is, "Shit is Fucked Up and Shit".

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:43 | 5149616 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Just once I would like to see video footage of a plane hitting the pentagon.  There are and were security cameras all over that building, this should be an easy thing.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:07 | 5149740 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

so lemme get this straight...France and the other Euro-losers haven't figured out how to lie about their unemployment statistics to make them look good month after month just like our own government losers do? 

I mean, how else are they supposed to convince millions of unemployed, desperate, starving, and homeless people that everything is okay and that everybody really do have jobs!??? 

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:42 | 5149612 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

Re-Post but still valid:

The reason the french economy is fucked is because 60% of the french economy is public sector. It is a parasite hanging around the kneck of the private sector. Because of the high taxes and red tape , costs , penalties , it's impossible for anybody to start a small business , anybody arrogant enough to create a new business is taxed and red taped out of existance within a few years. All the french young people who want to create new startups are moving to the UK , where instead of being treated like criminals they are welcomed and get invested in.  Fuck trying to start any business in France , they think if you want to start a business , create new employment and train young people they think you are some kind of criminal and dump 2000 pages of french employment law in front of you. Who the fuck would want to invest in that kind of climate ? It's one step away from all out communism. Until that is stopped then france will continue to go downhill , blaming the foreigners all the way when instead it is the failed socilialst system which has failed.  France has the potential to be a wonderful place for new business , it has all the qualities of being one of the best places in the world , the mountains , the wine , the food , the oceans , beaches , it has everything , but for some reason they want a socailist parasitic system and everything given for free , at the expense of private entrerpise and people who want to create new business and new employment.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/french-pub-fined-9000-af...

https://www.facebook.com/toi.auss.soutien.maman.lapin

 

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:48 | 5149634 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Please, wake the fuck up.  The public/private line does not exist anymore.  Bailouts for everyone!  I know plenty of "private" businesses that are 100% dependent upon fat government contracts.  It's like this all over the fucking planet.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 16:06 | 5150877 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

They are not private businesses if they are 100% dependent on sucking the tit of the state are they ? That is not Capitalism. They are corrupt and they should , and will be eventually bankrupted . Balance needs to be found between the private and public sectors , they are not the same and never will be.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:59 | 5149698 Fíréan
Fíréan's picture

Please, pretty much every engineer that's worth a shit has pointed out the problems with the "official" 911 storyline.

Precisely, yet took some time for them, and the general public of the usa, to come around and speak up in public, while those of other nationalities who did so were made the point of ridicule and accused of being conspiracy theorist.( we have good rmemories and long time reader) . The msm still pushes the official story. Meanwhile "France"  became the butt of ridcule and continues to do so (it would appear) .

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:12 | 5149772 LawsofPhysics
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what part of everyone is on the dole don't you understand?

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 14:26 | 5150251 Fíréan
Fíréan's picture

What ever you read about it, what ever you understand about it ,what ever you know about it, you wont be doing anyhting about it, ( unless it's a personnal issue) ; it's all noise on the internet. Thirteen years since 2001, six years since the financial collapse and the too big to fail syndrome of 2008+,illegal mortgage foreclosure, financial fraudcross the world, the endless war on everybody.  Change goverrnments,, change presidents; read about it, comment on it, then mvoving on to the next story . . .  come back and read it all again tomorrow. maybe some new spice to the soup, but for the most part it's another story on a blog ( and you can't a change a thing about it),  no matter how serious it is to those people who are on the wrong end of the bad news.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:01 | 5149696 barre-de-rire
barre-de-rire's picture

whatever you think about france it still has the possibility like many EU countries to  screw the whole system.

 

US is nothing without EU. EU is nothing without US.

anti europ feeling is rising on EU... some serious stuff to come.

 

as french i attest reshuffle is total puppet move to show they are moving while in fact they just cannot, because nothing can fucking be done to change the fact that era of mass working is OVER.

as long any .gov in trouble will insist saying word " growth " no need to stay & wait. they just dont get  how the world is mutating.

 

go ask foxconn, they will explain to you what is in the box for the next 5 years to force maintain of economy by compensating loose of reel market  by swaping human labor with robotic one.

 

2030 : 100% ebt card in usa.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:38 | 5149594 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

They'e  re-arranged the deck chairs and now for an uplifting tune from the band. Oh by the way, ignore the iceberg ahead, it's no problem.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 18:28 | 5151526 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"Get Back To Work Mr. Hollande; French Jobseekers Surge To Record High"

 

Tyler,

 

Seems to me that Hollande has been very busy, The busier he gets, the higher the unemployment rate will be in France.

Mr Hollande needs a long vacation on Remulak along with Bozo. My understanding is that Remulak as a interesting golf course, that I am sure Barry will find exciting

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coneheads

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:16 | 5149479 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Yeah,  try to find a hotel room in Alsace next week.    The top 20% in France are doing great.   Just like here.  

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:22 | 5149504 aleph0
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The top 20% are the Government + Civil Servants

 

... same everywhere.

 

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:24 | 5149511 NOTaREALmerican
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Nobody else?

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:27 | 5149536 Madcow
Madcow's picture

The French Government has everything under control - the plan is to simply bring in more immigrants - so that after a few years of people running around chopping each other's heads off - the number of job applicants will be substantially lower - problem solved !

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:31 | 5149555 josephpetronyc
josephpetronyc's picture

here it comes, here it comes, here comes hyour 19th 29  breakdnow, and nothing you do is going to help , its only going to to make matter worse  ah ooohh ah oooooh ooh

 

sorry Mick

 

 

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:32 | 5149563 coulous
coulous's picture

Bad enough to send CAC40 3% higher in Three days on no volum

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:37 | 5149588 Jason T
Jason T's picture

some went to go live in some valley and labor on their own account ..something about nobody to loot their labor anymore.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:38 | 5149598 Dr Strangemember
Dr Strangemember's picture

France is considered an Islamist country these days, no?  

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:48 | 5149637 drm4
drm4's picture

Well, it's the first North African city on the Paris-Dakar route, as the joke used to go!

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 12:45 | 5149624 peter4805
peter4805's picture

I just don't understand it. This story must be fake. Rising unemployment just isn't posible in a sociaist utopia like France.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 15:42 | 5150764 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

well you can bank on a socialist 'things getting worse' ...and then you can throw away the 'before they get better' bit

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:05 | 5149694 novictim
novictim's picture

Not so fast.  Take the longer view and you will see the real pattern.

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2011/08/9-unemployment-rates-are-normal-for....

My above link fails to address the association of globalization with unemployment but the graph on that page is useful.  Try to think for yourself.

Check out that graph of French unemployment going back to 1970.  Consider that the rising rate of unemployment corresponds very nicely with the world wide obsession to "Open UP Markets". 

Recall the obsession with French companies in Indochina.

Recall President Nixon and his Ping-Pong diplomacy and his granting of Most Favored Nation Trading Status to China.

So Free Trade is the job killer as the efficiency it creates comes at the expense of jobs.  Is that bad?  No, not on its own. 

We are FAR FAR wealthier today as a result of the tremendous free trade and production efficiencies but the bad thing is how we have shared this prosperity.

As in, we have NOT shared this resulting prosperity.  The growth of wealth inequality tracks perfectly with the rising rate of unemployment. 

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:16 | 5149785 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"We are FAR FAR wealthier"  -  only if debt does not matter, liabilities don't matter, and you use substantial mark to fantasy accounting methods.  It all depends on how you define value.  There is value in food security, trustworthy friends and family, and freedom to go and do as you please, despite what's in anyone's bank account.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:23 | 5149825 Raoul_Luke
Raoul_Luke's picture

Correlation is not causation.  It also charts to the end of Bretton Woods.  Free foreign trade isn't the problem here, we've been doing that since the days of Marco Polo.  It's the bugger your neighbor system of serial leap frogging currency devaluations that has ruined the developed economies and driven up wealth inequality.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:01 | 5149707 SoDamnMad
SoDamnMad's picture

Wait until the cries to go back to the franc get louder. He who bails from the Euro shall live.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:37 | 5149929 jubber
jubber's picture

CAC ...UP 10Y ATL  funny that

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:43 | 5149961 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

Formerly, politicians identified themselves with more or less relevant political brands (liberalism, conservatism, socialist, Democrat, Republican, etc.)
But nowadays, the need for political sponsorship is primary, and greatly outweighs any need for popular backing. Popularity is typically gained by messaging according to poll results, and media advertising. Many political ads downplay any political affiliation, and only promote generalities like peace, love, justice, jobs, etc (aka motherhood and apple pie). The political brand is regarded as just another public relations buzzword, irrelevant to all except perhaps secondary issues.

Those key (often international) sponsors generally share a set of beliefs concerning their power, their assumed rights, their perceived threats, and long-term goals.

To better recognize the politics,
we need to better recognize what a NEO prefix has evolved to describe in modern political terminology.

NEO-conservatives are fake conservatives.
NEO-liberals are fake liberals.
Hollande, the fake socialist, might best be identified as a NEO-socialist.
 
The critical prefix "NEO" indicates the true core ideology,
the word prefixed indicating merely the politics deceitfully advertised while seeking popular support.

What is that core sponsored ideology?
The NEO core ideology embraces  the goal of a global empire, managed by and for  an elite oligarchy and their also-to-be-privileged underlings.
Major established means toward achieving that goal are:
establishing  national police state forces subordinate to a global police force (NATO)
military interventions to control resources,
secretive unaccountable public and private government, institutions, and organizations,
and the autocratic supra-national corporate control of  food, water, media, finances,  etc.
Underpinning the ideology is a belief that the NEO goal represents the "best of all possible worlds" and is therefore "realistic". Hence, employing "any means necessary" to overcome "unrealistic" resistance is justified as necessary "realism".

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 13:45 | 5149966 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

"we suspect things get worse before better..."

I think he meant to say that "things will get worse before they get worse"

Until I see the painful but cleansing actions of a free market at work I hold little hope of any nation's ills being overcome.

The greater the interference of governments both legislatively, bureaucratically and monetarily the less the likelihood of any improvement.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 14:16 | 5150182 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

Elect a BIGGER socialist, that will fix everything.

 

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 14:18 | 5150197 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

That is true because a bigger socialist will simply speed up the collapse of an already broken system.

Wed, 08/27/2014 - 14:37 | 5150361 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

But over all, that should be good for new highs in EU markets and new lows on EU sov. debt. SuperMario will fix it, we do not need Hollande and his new gov at all, only the 2 and 3 stars michelin restaurants need him and his entourage.

Thu, 08/28/2014 - 04:42 | 5152844 fibonacci's claus
fibonacci's claus's picture

the big secret nobodys talking about:  christine lagarde is really Hollande's older transexual brother. 

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