This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Ebola Outbreak Evolving "In Alarming Ways," WHO Warns 20,000 Could Be Infected
More than 20,000 people may be infected with the Ebola virus before the outbreak in West Africa is controlled, warns the World Health Organization. As we noted previously, they believe the costs to fight this epidemic will be $490 million (higher than the previous $430 million estimate) as Bloomberg reports the WHO roadmap released today warns "The 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak continues to evolve in alarming ways." So far, the virus has infected more than 3,000 people, making it the biggest outbreak ever, and has killed more than 1,550. It’s on a pace to cause more deaths than all previous outbreaks combined.
More than 20,000 people may be infected with the Ebola virus before the outbreak in West Africa is controlled and curbing the epidemic will cost at least $490 million, according to a World Health Organization plan.
The number of people falling ill is accelerating, with more than 40 percent of the infections happening in the past 21 days, the Geneva-based United Nations agency said in an e-mailed statement today. In some areas, the number of cases may be two to four times higher than reported, the WHO said in a separate document, a so-called road map that lays out the plan to deal with the situation.
“The 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak continues to evolve in alarming ways,” the WHO said in the road map released today. Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone are “struggling to control the escalating outbreak against a backdrop of severely compromised health systems, significant deficits in capacity and rampant fear.”
...
The WHO’s cost estimate is up from $430 million in a draft of the road map reported by Bloomberg News this week.
* * *
One potential trajectory of the outbreak based on current growth...
h/t Reginald B
* * *
Lastly, we noted yesterday that Africa GDP was estimated to drop 4% on the 3,000 infected cases so far... one can only imagine the carnage to the nations' economies if the cases hit 20,000...
»
- 18265 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
By 'Alarming" do you mean right on schedule?
Nature is scoring victory after victory.
Whatever adjectives are necessary...
They're asking for $490MM because they realized they're going to get the $430MM and no one will bat an eye at the additional $60MM. Besides, this is just the first tranche. Always nice to start with a higer base when you're feeding at the trough.
Dick Cheney is in the Ebola Bucks line somewhere. Probably most of that money is going to him already.
...using Birinyi's French curve?
Mmmmm, the amount of money the WHO wants to waste... err.... use fighting the problem climbed from $430 million to $490 million. I expect we will hit the billion dollar mark soon enough.
What? Like Dinty Moore without the carrots?
28 Days Later was one of the better zombie flicks. Ebola affects the brain in a matter similar to rabies, according to Preston's book. The virus eats away the higher cognitave functions, while the primitive, reptilian functions remain.
Ebola is most frightening as it reminds us that despite all our god like powers we as a species have accrued in our quest of domination of the planet, we can still be reduced to a quivering, aching, foul tempered mass of cytoplasm in a matter of days by an invisible monster. It challenges our notion of domination and control. It brings home the truth that we are not special.
And yes, Dinty Moore is certainly Ebola sludge.
Did you say Reptilian? Me likey!!!!
20K, that's about 2 months away.
Unless they already have a plan to end it in 2 months, that number will be more like 4M
I've discovered the cure for Ebola.
Stop breathing.
It's definitely the scariest shit I've read about. One of the only things that, I told my wife, if I ever catch, just put me out of my misery. The fucked up part would be finding ways to off yourself that wouldn't spread the disease to family and friends. A gunshot wound to the head would be the last thing to do to keep those around me safe. May have to go the robin williams route.
"A gunshot wound to the head would be the last thing to do to keep those around me safe."
There are a few variables there. I'm thinking a 12ga to the head on the back 20 acres is neater than a .22 to the head at the family dinner. You could focus on the positive too. Think of who you could press your cheeks up against in case of sudden projectile bloody intestinal blowouts.
entrance or exit?
Did they say $490 million? Why so modest? We can print lots more. Give them twice that and please, Mortimer none of those pictures anymore!
Thi$ is by far the wor$t Ebola outbreak in hi$tory. The WHO doe$n't have the manpower re$ource$ to $top it from $preading and can't maintain an effective $ecurity perimeter around the infected area$. WHO need$ a$$i$tance now!
Gee...they shoulda just dumped a big bucket of ice water on his head.
That seems to be the cure for everything these days...but at the same time it's producing more retards than ebola produces bloody deaths.
Black vomit? That's RACIST.
THAT'S MORE THAN 20.000 DOLLAR PER VICTIM!!!
TWENTY THOUSAND!!!
DO YOU KNOW HOW MUCH THAT IS FOR AFRICANS?!??!?
THAT WOULD BE LIKE 2 MILLION PER PERSON IN AMERICA!!!
yes but how much is it per panicked bastard that doesn't want to get ebola?
What a stupid remark ( see above Dick Chaney comment)
Am I reading this correctly????
"More than 20,000 people may be infected with the Ebola virus before the outbreak in West Africa is controlled"
Am I missing something, or have they found a cure for ebola? I mean, they're claiming "before the outbreak in West Africa is controlled."
Controlled?
Nope.
You didn't miss a damned thing.
The official meme remains "Give us more money (with which tio do fuck all what, I may ask?) and we can contain this Leviathian"
Nope Strange, you didn't miss a damned thing
It comes down to "Never let a crisis go to waste even if it kills millions"
Cordon Sanitare, anyone?
Oh, I knew they understood French.
Time tested, mom approved
Knukles? What are you doing here? I thought you died from a major rectal bleedout yesterday as was reported? nice recovery man!
Someone's gonna make a killing on this..pun intended.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/first-human-trials...
"...and has killed more than 1,550."
Yeah? Big deal.
Here's a preventable disease that will kill more Africans than that in just the next 24 hours:
http://www.who.int/malaria/media/world_malaria_report_2013/en/
When it's out of control after 1000 deaths, it will be epic, and exponentially, at 20.000.
Or do bugs stop eating after 20.000 victims? "Could reach 20.000, confucius say".
Exactly. Somebody needs to explain why an epidemic that is "out of control" at 2000+ infections could be more controlable once it has spread to 10x that number.
At a rate of doubling at every TWENTY DAYS it will take 60 Days before 24,000 are infected.
So WHO believes that they can control this in 60 days?
DO NOT COUNT ON THIS. THEY ARE CRAZY. They understand Exponential Math. They are LYING ASSHOLES AGAIN.
My wife just made an excel chart based upon the WHO data that looks pretty much like the above posted trend chart. The data points fit the projected trendline at around 90% - which she said might be the best fit she's ever seen for real world data.
This outbreak has shown no sign of slowing down - or in the mortality rate dropping.
That's because the data are a lie. If it looks to good to be true (e.g., the "goodness of fit" appears unusually accurate) it probably is. More goal seeked data.
Because you can't handle the truth (off the fucking chart!).
My wife and I both agree that the reported data undercounts actual infections/deaths - but if you were trying to purposefully present manipulated data to calm folks down - why in the world would you use numbers to demonstrate an exponential growth rate?
Why? See my comment below. Perhaps the truth is even worse?
Hm. Maybe it's because I view exponential functions a bit differently than the herd - but all I need to know to be VERY concerned is:
1. Death rate higher than Spanish Flu? (>2.5%) Check. This strain of Ebola is over 50%.
2. Transmissible by casual contact or close proximity? Check. In fact, this strain seems to bypass at least low-level protective equipment. Not good.
3. Long incubation period? Check. 2-21 days - and the survivors are potentially contagious for months. This is really not good.
4. Exponential infection rate? Check.
For me, the actual curve/doubling rate is just a factor to judge the spread and effect of potential mutations/attenuations.
I agree that we don't know the current extent of infections/deaths (I'm assuming 3-10x higher than reported) but once confirmed cases exceed 10k - I just don't see much hope in containment after that.
Yes, please give me some more down arrows. Because:
In an action plan to deal with the outbreak, the WHO said that "the actual number of cases may be 2-4 fold higher than that currently reported" in some areas.
Source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28966258
And how many areas aren't counted at all? Congo isn't in the WHO data at this point.
I am sorry. This is very sad.
I hope for the best on this.
It is not looking good...at all.
This is why it never should have been brought here. The oceans would be natural containment. I have no word for the incredible stupidity of all of this. That anyone has any belief this is remotely containable given those in charge, may I suggest a book written by a young woman named Mary Shelley.
Miffed;-)
Frankenstein?
PS - Green for all the good info you bring here.
I always think of Frankenstein as a good person who became human from Dean Koonz's book.
Hey could happen.
The Last Man, by Mary Shelley.
Written, 1826.
Ok, that surprised me. So much for thinking I'm so subtle and clever.
Miffed;-)
They mean if we give them the money, they'll stop flying infected people out of africa to their home countries.
Time to short airlines guys!!!!
you are right about that! going all in, short ebola airlines ASAP
Nice... and if it gets really bad, short the homebuilders too. Because, you know... won't be much demand if there are fewer "buyers".
Airlines? A good place to start. Quickly followed by restaurants (pick high PE like CMG) and shopping mall owners (like SPG). From there, if we see real exposure in the West, feel free to short the SPX down 40%+.
Of course, we've seen enough bear traps in the last 4 years that your best bet may to sit this one out 'cause we're going to SPX 2500 by January.
What's that DIY Salad Bar restaurant called??? Sweet Onions? Sweet Carrots? Sweet Beefstakes? Well anyway, that's a good one to short too. All it takes is one simple sneeze on the potato salad...
The problem with shorting any of this is counter party risk...
As in, your counter party could be Ebola-d before you get paid what you think you are owed.
Who manufactures that Soylent Green, I'd like too short them too, please.
These guys manaufacture Soylent Green... http://www.soylent.me/
OMFG.
"By 'Alarming" do you mean right on schedule?"
I'm more concerned about their use of the word "Evolving"
Annnnnnd... reported yesterday, some 600 possibly infected folks flew from Shitholeoley in deepest darkest Africa to Delhi and Mumbai.
Nice.... crowds are feasts for this stuff....
We appear to now be playing the bonus round thanks to the hiding of heads in holes, ain't no problem, everything's under control, apparent use of West Africa as a petri dish for hemorrhagic fever experiments and vaccines.
Booyah!
I don't know if 'booyah' is appropriate. Did Cramer say Ebloa is going to the moon?
May your mother be attacked by a yak.
200 Indians returning to their country EVERY DAY from Liberia, and 200 citizens also returning to each of their 10 or 20 other countries from Liberia EVERY DAY, sounds to me like the recipe for worldwide Ebola
Sounds like the plan for...
Add to that that Ebola has jumped species
Dogs eating contaminated flesh become carriers
India is to Ebola what a deep frier is to KFC Chicken. India would be done and the rest of the world would follow.
Ah, exponential growth rates!
With conditions like this in areas, fucken A
http://www.chinasmack.com/2010/pictures/filthy-india-photos-chinese-netizen-reactions.html
Momma earth's patience starting to ware thin...
Those pics were vile. Taking India off my bucket list.
In India you could commit murder and dump the body in the river. Nobody would ever notice.
Well that settles it. I'm NOT going to India this year for vacation. Perhaps a nicer, cleaner envirnment like, hell after that even Furguson looks better.
Nice link. I found this gem of a Chinese commenter's view on American settlements and law enforcement:
Within two meters? You mean within sight of. And raising your hands won't stop them.
Yep, spent 5 months there back in 2005, most God forsaken place on the planet. That said given the living conditions and lack of sanitation, those people have immune systems that are almost impossible to beat, Ebola probably shits itself and dies once introduced to that microbaterium universe.
Yes Knuks, I think nmewn is due for a nice plate of black crow. I have quite a few I could donate.
Miffed;-)
Hey Miiffed, what is your spin? I always check for your posts and Cougar's on these Ebola scares.
You cannot imagine how many of us do!...sincerely, thank you for your service!
Yep....I wish my cousin at Emory wasn't bound by HIPPA. She's and epidemiologist.
Do you guys want the complicated or simple version? I could do both but one is certainly more brief than the other and I'm guessing all of you would know what the verbiage of the brief one would be. The longer more complex one would explain the shorter if you really care to know.
Miffed;-)
Executive summary type, Miffed, with a few potential scenarios. Back of the envelope type possibilities. As always, we all appreciate your input. Thank you.
Let me anticipate - are the words "completely fucked" involved?
I was hoping for a bit more upbeat .." Eat, Drink & Screw your brains out, for tomorrow you melt."
Lol, considering that is Mr Miffed's answer to all things unpleasant in life I am well versed in that tactic. I have come to be in complete agreement in his approach and heartily recommend it! ;-)
As to the short version, yes citxmech I am leaning to that. We may be in the possible containment situation in this country now and if proper decisions are made NOW, I think we may dodge a bullet. I have no comment for Africa if these numbers are truly reflective to what is going on in the field. As with any case, those with money will have the best chance if they move to higher ground in this tsunami. However, if those with cash are infected, they will be the most likely candidates to infect the rest of the world as they stampede out.
Now for the longer version.
I have decided to not venture out on other sites to hear any other opinions. I want facts not conjecture. I believe Hannibal Lecter is instrumental in providing my approach "First principles, Clarice. Simplicity. Read Marcus Aurelius. Of each particular thing ask: what is it in itself? What is its nature? What does he do, the man you seek?" So my focus has been trying to understand how this virus works. Only until we understand it will we know what to do. Mount a defense or run? The following is a condensed version of what I have found in several technical journals. Journal of Virology, Journal of Infectious Diseases and Journal of immunology. I know there is a lot of technical jargon. Please bear with me.
Ebola does have a novel mechanism of enhancement: multiple IgG antibodies bind to GP epitopes in close proximity, allowing the binding of C1 to the Fc region of the antibodies. This complex binds C1q ligands on the cell surface and stabilizes the interaction between the virus and its receptor, increasing the likelihood of viral attachment. THIS IS KEY. This virus is using our own immune response against us!!
C1q ligands have been identified on many cell types, including the monocytes/macrophages and endothelial cells that are preferentially targeted by this hemorrhagic virus. Therefore, while antibodies normally protect the body, this virus is able to use them for faster and easier attachment to target cells.
In addition being an essential cofactor for the viral RNA polymerase complex, VP35 has been identified as an inhibitor of multiple components of the interferon ( IFN) pathways. These are a family of cytokines produced in response to viral infection that exert antiviral, cell growth-inhibitory and immunoregulatory activities. Upon viral infection, the IFN response can be triggered by sensors such as retinoic acid-inducible gene I (RIG-I) protein and the melanoma differentiation-associated gene 5 (MDA-5) protein that recognize dsRNA or ribonucleoprotein complexes.However, VP35 is able to disrupt this pathway just as it begins by competing with RIG-1 for the binding of dsRNA. So, Ebola is very efficient in nullifying an immune response early and quickly in initial infection.
The entry mechanism of Ebola virus doesn't appear to be well understood. Many enveloped viruses, Ebola virus included, rely upon endocytosis to infect cells. Several distinct endocytic mechanisms exist in mammalian cells, and can be distinguished by the type of cargo they carry as well as the proteins involved in their regulation. However, all mechanisms ultimately transport virions through successive endocytic vesicles until a compartment with adequate conditions, low pH in the case of Ebola, is reached.Upon membrane fusion, the capsid moves into the cell cytoplasm at a site where replication proceeds optimally.Previous studies to clarify the entry mechanism of Ebola have produced conflicting results, with involvement of clathrin-mediated endocytosis, caveolin-mediated endocytosis and a Rho GTPase-dependent pathway that may suggest macropinocytosis all being implicated. However, all of these experiments were performed using retrovirus-based pseudotypes in which GP is coated onto the surface of a retrovirus capsid containing a recombinant genome. This removes the need to work in a biosafety level four laboratory, but suffers from non-ideal biochemical characteristics. Only recently have experiments been performed with wild-type Ebola virus Zaire that demonstrate that cellular entry involves uptake by a macropinocytosis-like mechanism. So when the body tries to defend itself, this virus USES THE DEFENSE to gain entry to our cells!! This explains a lot. Especially when the use of passive immunity ( transfusing serum from a person recovered from Ebola) has been spotty in efficacy.
Knowing this I don't think therapies like ZMAPP will work unless given VERY early in infection, way before symptoms are expressed.
My conclusion? If this comes here in any serious way the only answer is RUN.
Note to parrotile. Would you consider marrying a microbiologist whose passport will not buy her residency at Pitcairn? Mr Miffed would be most grateful if you could find him a prospective mate if needed. We have access to a boat that would get us there. We are both low maintenance and great company if that is an inducement.
Miffed;-)
Thank you Miffed. Honestly I understood about 50% of the medical info, I'll have to give it to my beautiful wife who's a BSN. But you got me thinking, just to stir up the pot a little- Ebola only works in a low Ph blood envirnment? Really? So does Cancer and a lot of other nasty things. Could simple things like Essiac, mushrooms or consuming baking soda help the care givers immune system?
Yes, that peaked my interest as well. I thought of the movie Andromeda strain where the only survivors were the baby and old man who drank sterno. Both represented the high and low ends on the ph scale. If this were a viable therapy I am concerned the ph necessary to arrest replication may be incompatible with human life. We have an extremely narrow ph range that we can tolerate, 7.42 being about optimal.
Miffed;-)
"Could simple things like Essiac, mushrooms or consuming baking soda help the care givers immune system?"
Probably not. Note that it is the pH of an INTRACELLULAR compartment that is part of the viruse's replication machinery. Such things are gererally under the control of staunch homeostasis mechanisms. It's doubtful that consuming baking soda and other such attempts to influence the pH of an intracellular compartment would have any impact.
Probalby not? I respect your opinion but I would disagree. I've heard prostate cancer survivors refusing chemo and only consuming baking soda. Have you done research on Essiac? Mushrooms? They are all natural remedies. I would not let them touch me with chemo. They can take that shit and shove it.
MM, you kill me....lol (sorry, it's the rum....)
Great detail, tho. Thanks.
Funny, I typed out all that after a double martini. I really think I function better drunk. Why my work won't consider this is beyond me.Silly, stuffy women all. ;-)
Miffed;-)
Nice summary again, MM. Thanks. I read your previous post on mechanisms a lot of which was repeated here. I've been very lazy about looking into this so I appreciate your informative summaries all the more.
@IridiumRebel
Try Samuel Milham, retired epidemiologist and author of "Dirty Electricy".
I found him not only responsive but incredibly nice.
He also gets how our world works having been squeezed out of a job because they didn't like his results & had his occupational disease probability website censored.
Are you serious??? Did not see that little news snippet. I think the Ganges looks like hell on earth now, imagine what it will look like once ebola strikes.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/City/Delhi/Flight-from-Ebola-Fingers-...
One Indian and five others in quarantine. This article makes it sound like they plan to isolate over 100:
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/maharashtra/bmc-on-alert-after-re...
Good God.
India.
I feel like I am in the beginning of a really bad "B" movie.
The Indian way of dealing with subprime?
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bangalore/Realtor-loses-testicle...
goes under the category of shit you can't make up
As irony will have it, they're treating the Ebola patients at that same hospital. Hug a realtor today!
Eunuch Realty Corp, "We Fuck Nobody"
^ hit that link above..
70-year-old rapes 2-year-old infant; police to file chargesheet within 3 days
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/jaipur/70-year-old-rapes-2-year-...
Red, because that is messed up.
They would run out of water like California.
Are you serious Knukles? Holy shit.
Yes, big news here, Knux.
Almost every airport worker was wearing protective gear of some kind, even people passing through.
Some were detained, but only those showing symptoms, as I understand it. The rest were let go.
I am not sure it is 'airborne' yet; however, it appears to be very highly potent in its infectious capability. Simply touching the skin of someone can apparently infect you.
Obviously all of the returning patients should have been quarantined until the bug is figured out.
I am glad I flew in the day before to this location from a remote part of the country. However, this could get out of control very fast. I have loaded up on masks and decom equipment from the job site.
*****
I have a co-worker (former partner) in a central African country now. I have not heard from him although I have emailed him .
The one thing folks need to understand is that "airborne" has a very specific definition. Even if this variety of Ebola isn't technically airborne - it wouldn't mean that you couldn't be infected by someone sneezing a few feet away from you.
See the difference between "Droplet Transmission" and "Airborne Transmission" below:
Transmission-Based PrecautionsThere are three types of transmission-based precautions: contact precautions (for diseases spread by direct or indirect contact), droplet precautions (for diseases spread by large particles in the air), and airborne precautions (for diseases spread by small particles in the air). Each type of precautions has some unique prevention steps that should be taken, but all have standard precautions as their foundation.
Contact Precautions
Droplet Precautions
Airborne Precautions
http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/surveillance/hai/StandardPrecau...
Thank you for the explanation in general but most particularly about droplet precautions. I don't think enough people who supposedly are charged with 'containing' Ebola are taking that part very seriously.
WHO, CBO, and Wall Street economists/strategists should all work together given their superior forecasting abilities.
They can't control this with 3000 infected, do they plan flamethrower treatment at 20,000?
No way you can isolate 20,000 people outside of killing them. Cat's out of the bag, horses out of the barn, and that light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train.
given the incubation, there could be 1000 people right now in NYC currently infected, and "no one" knows.....
i am long mass graves and shovels.
Margin up on Stewart Enterprises. An absolute ebola homerun play!
I expect Cramer will jump on my bandwagon in a few weeks. You'll see.
No way to isolate? The fine folks of West Point (Liberia) might disagree. News black out now, but they deserve the full attention of all.
There are actually news reports coming out of that place. Tersee.com has just about real-time info on this Ebola topic. Heartbreaking and terrifying situation for all.
this was the first tersee link
http://news.yahoo.com/look-inside-slum-cut-off-ebola-outbreak-234048992....
zero comments link to kid rant at right.... 900 comments
Fucked doesn't begin to explain what most people are....
Well, FEMA after all does have 1,000,000+ plastic disposable coffins as seen on videos over the years an "Conspiracy" web sites.
Oh, and somebody does have a billion hollow-point rounds.
Oh and tPtB have frequently made noises about culling the herd
And, lemme see, one of the W African countries originally hosting the outbreak asked the US military to halt their "experiments"
And, oh my, "they' have yet (although some have stopped but not all) to halt all flights between the highly infected areas to DENSELY populated areas...
And some little research company in SoCal just happens to have a vaccine antidote for this mutation of the virus, meaning that they already had a live strand or two of said virus so they could make the vaccine.....
Well fuck me, a little green man from Mars might just look at this and say it was pre-planned.
Georgia Guide-stones, anybody?
Shit! Those were fuckin coffins? I thought they were some sort of 'green roof' plant boxes to curb global warming!
What's the company with the vaccine?
SCI
Wow! I hadn't thought of that. I had always thought they would shoot everyone after having us dig the trenches a la Nazi Germany just for economic reasons. No, you'd want individual coffins to contain the infectious agent and keep the ground water untainted. Sad, I can take no joy the puzzle pieces are finally fitting together.
Miffed;-)
I know nothing but I will lob this alternative explanation into the mix:
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/debunked-fema-coffins-plastic-grave-lin...
That's interesting. Here's something else to ponder. Rachel Maddow on MSNBC had a snippet on the very "coffins" we speak of. This clip "was" on youtube, but has since been scrubbed. Wonder why? It's getting very difficult to tell truth from fiction.
Here's another example: This book was recommended to me today by the friend that sent the refractometer to the back to eden creator. In researching the author who's a Vet & has done autopsies on folks, I ran across this, which in turn led me to look up the author of that article, to find this , then this and finally this.
All I can say is WTF, whata rabbit hole! I will err on the side of the vet who's minimum knowledge is within the realm of 5 species with the knowledge of animal husbandry and the importance of mineralizing your livestock.
Smoothed new case rate (does not include DRC outbreak data):
28 Aug 14 - 69/day
22 Aug 14 - 59/day
20 Aug 14 - 54/day
19 Aug 14 - 46/day
15 Aug 14 - 54/day
13 Aug 14 - 40/day
11 Aug 14 - 37/day
08 Aug 14 - 54/day
06 Aug 14 - 55/day
04 Aug 14 - 57/day
02 Aug 14 - 43/day
29 Jul 14 - 38/day
27 Jul 14 - 23/day
23 Jul 14 - 12/day
17 Jul 14 - 10/day
Morbidity: 54%
Partial: 5.5% per day
(28 Aug release contains data through 26 Aug).
http://www.afro.who.int/en/clusters-a-programmes/dpc/epidemic-a-pandemic-alert-and-response/outbreak-news.html
reposted from earlier thread
Doctors w/o Boarders responds to WHO 20K estimate as optimistic.
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2014/08/msf-responds-to-the-who-new-e...
As for the economic impact of 4% of GDP that is wildly optimistic.
Port Harcourt Nigiria's oil hub. Has booked 2 new cases as of today!
We get 11% of our crude from Nigeria
http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2014/08/ebola-in-nigeria-more-on-the-...
17 days Apapa to Houston
Don't worry, be hopey!!
http://olduvai.ca
If they hit 60k in 15 weeks I'll be worried. But that chart looks like hyperbole at the moment.
Chart projects to years end. 60,000 by xmas.
Happy new year.
Don't they celebrate xmas in October in W. Africa?
Good point, not only that, nobody will notice if you shit bloody diarrohea on Santas lap at the mall...on account of he wears a red suit and all...making lemonade here...
Excellent point, Clade!!!!
It's not hyperbole it's exponential as in hyperbolic and completly plausible.
June 30 deaths 400
July 30 deaths 800
August 30 deaths 1600(you'll see)
Yeah. And then. like I said, I'll be worried.
Silly wabbit. The chart is NOT hyperbole because, if anything, we'll not know the real numbers ever. There are numerous "goat paths" throughout all these African countries that are travelled freely without showing a passport. They (the people) will move around and not be properly counted, especially in the more rural areas.
There is ONLY one way to stop this virus and that is to cordone off about seven African countries; no movement in and no movement out, until it burns itself out. Recall, they have Never seen multiple patients with ebola...ever before...in the large cities like Lagos. Recall, only fity percent of those living in Lagos (Nigeria the most westernized of the African countries, except for perhaps South Africa) have running water, and that water isn't necessarly "clean" water.
CDC ran a cute little computer program a few years ago (disguised, of course) for the gamer community. They wanted to see what would happen in a "zombie game" with a cordoned off area. Course it was a melee with all kinds of people breaking out until the borders of the cordoned off area fell completely.
Now our friends in England have decided that they can do experiments outside of a controlled laboratory: http://news.yahoo.com/wanted-60-volunteers-test-ebola-vaccine-middle-eng...
Guy wants sixty volunteers to test the ebola "vaccine." Course it is supposed to be a vaccine without any live virus (chortle) but factor in the nature-wants-to-win thingy and that sucker could come roaring back to life in one of those sixty and we are off to the races.
First principle of life: Never trust anyone. 2nd principle of life: Never ever trust the head of the CDC. Tom FRieden is the idjat head of the CDC. Not long ago he said something (can't find the exact quote but this is accurate) like, "well we don't do that kind of thing anymore" as he was addressing cordoning off the areas that have ebola.
Now when the head of the CDC is so stupid that he applies politically correct attitudes towards the most lethal virus on the planet, he should be fired, not immediately, but yesterday would be too soon.
A CDC which has allowed in leprosy patients to the US, who then refuse to show up for treatment because of the "stigma" is a CDC that is too stupid to be giving advice to Africa about ebola. And which is a CDC that allows gay males to continue to have random sex even as 50,000 NEW Aids cases strains our health care system each year along with all the other (drug-reisstant gonnorhea) stds that gays are particularly prone to getting from each other.
Ya know the thing about viruses like this to be feared? They got nothing to do but crop up in new and frightening ways. LIke the American missionary who was "cured" except that you shouldn't have sex for two months because maybe you could pass it on. Or if that's the case Then why can't it crop up again in the saliva or sweat. Interestingly enough, malaria is like that too. You think it's gone and then it comes back again and again. Something about these bugs cured in the crucible of African heat. They just don't stop.
Now go watch 28 Days Later or Outbreak.
Which chart goes more parabolic - ebola cases or the Argentinian Peso to the USD?
I guess this number is better than so many, since it has no other method of transmission it will surely be contained to those countries.
there's a pretty good podcast called stuff you should know that has a pretty good intro to ebola on their podcast: http://www.stuffyoushouldknow.com/podcasts/how-ebola-works/
and an article on a similar podcast's website - http://health.howstuffworks.com/diseases-conditions/infectious/ebola.htm
THX!
If we kill the criminal bankers, there would be more than enough money to send aids. That's like 1 day of printing.
What the hell do they need all that money for? Robots with shovels?
Personal protective esquipment, disposable, non-reusable, by the hundreds of thousands
food for the quarantined, to end this will require a LOT of quarantined, hungry people
transportation for the many medical aid workers from around the world to come, work, quarantine themselves, then go home, repeat
frenzied and accelerated work on vaccine production
1 bil won't touch this...15 weeks from now starts Christmas holidays, we'll be lucky if by then it's only 60K
You only need half the food to feed the quaranteened after 3 weeks. I don't think their appetite is strong to begin with.
Bullish for Lipton's soup pouches and Mr. Christie's crackers
Because the water is safe. No prob.
The WHO wants to build an ice wall around west Africa.
This could get serious. Seriously.
20K? Either the WHO is:
1. Lying cause it's getting serious, or
2. Telling the truth cause they know it's outta control and know lying will make them look like assholes.
2 is not possible, they dont give a shit about what public opinion thinks.
The Sahara reporter news broke the story before the Nigerian government made the announcement yesterday of how one of the original guys - Sawyer's - contacts made it to Port Harcourt, Nigeria. He was treated by a doctor who died last Friday. The doctor ran a hospital and treated this contact in a hotel secretly. The doctor's wife is now in quarantine - suspected of also having Ebola
This shit is getting real folks ... like REAL real..
Yeah, saw that earlier today..that fucker Sawyer was like the Johnny Appleseed of death!
Thanks for that heads-up.
So a doctor, who was treating a diplomat that contracted Ebola from Patrick Sawyer, died on Friday.
His wife is sick, likely from Ebola, and under observation.
The diplomat is, for some reason, still alive.
EDIT: And an additional 70 people, all secondary contacts, are currently under observation while the doctor's hospital has been closed and the hotel which was used for treatment also is closed.
This confirms the virus is (i) highly virulent, and (ii) capable of spreading itself into urban areas. In case you still weren't quite sure.
And as for secondary contacts all being identified, the WHO stated earlier this week that they are grossly under-staffed for contact tracing. In one location they've successfully identified 200 of an estimated 2,000 contacts.
If WHO is stating "20,000" cases then they know that is coming. The goal currently is to manage this in a way that tbe public doesn't come unhinged right now. Imagine Ferguson, MO playing out in every city as the FSA decides there's no downside. Actually, the lack of violence (aside from Mr. Brown) will make Fergie look like a walk in the park.
Contact tracing's dubious anyway. So one of these guys gets up in the morning, in NYC or Mumbai, or London feeling shitty, about 21 days after returning from Africa, but hops on the subway or the bus or whatever anyway, sneezes a couple of times, wipes his nose, grabs the door or the seat or whatever to keep from falling, rides the elevator and sneezes again, then later that day feels so bad he checks into the hospital and gets quarantined. I wonder how the 'contact tracing' works in this scenario?
clade7..
"...the Johnny Appleseed of Death."
Hhahahahahah lol lol lol 55555555
100k up arrows for that quip! The msm says Sawyer and his Liberia wifey lived in Minnesota. They never mention the town...do some digging...they hail from COON RAPIDS, Minnesota! Can't make this shite up! Anyone have the skinny on why Minnesota decided to embrace Africa? What, they were tired of hot-looking Scandanvian women ans wanted to breed in some OB....outrageous bootay?
20K, yeah right, try 20M (or more)
It's comical that it's spreading at this rate and they somehow seem confident that 20,000 will be the terminal number.
Hahahahahah... maybe, maybe not, but to make that prediction at this point is beyond laugable....
What to Look for if the Psychopathic Cabal is Behind the West African Ebola Epidemic
http://winteractionables.com/?p=14112
What I really want to know is: What does the CDC say about all of this? /s
"they believe the costs to fight this epidemic will be $490 million (higher than the previous $430 million estimate) as Bloomberg reports"
I think this says it all. I'm still not drinking the corpse runoff Koolaide just to be safe.