Pending Home Sales Drop YoY For 10th Month In A Row

Tyler Durden's picture

Pending Home Sales fell 2.7% year-over-year making this the 10th month of falling YoY sales. This print beat expectations of a 3.5% decline but last month's data was revised lower to a 4.7% decline. MoM sales jumped 3.3% but the series has been extremely noisy in the last 6 months as the Northeast saw a seasonally-adjusted gain of 6.2% MoM (and Midwest fell 0.4%).


Pending Home Sales down YoY 10th Month in a row...


Midwest fell as Northeast surged...


Chart: Bloomberg

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Dr Strangemember's picture

Slow motion train wreck!  Toot toot!!

junction's picture

I wonder what mortgage brokers do when they can no longer write mortgages. 

slightlyskeptical's picture

I know two:

One is unemployed and on food stamps

The other is selling real estate but can't get any mortgages approved for his customers. His net worth went from over $10 million in 2007 to below zero in 2014.



Headbanger's picture

Who gives a flying fuckashit what those leaches do now!

philipat's picture

Kitco Headline "US Pending Home Sales Rise by 3.3% in July". Now, is Kitco so fucking stupid not to understand that SEASONALITY is all important in home sales, so the YOY comparison is all that matters? Or does Kitco have an agenda? I can't understand a Gold Company that is constantly trying to undermine Gold. Unless, of course, they are part of the paper Boyz scam, like Christian?

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Pending versus completed, the pending number always sounds good...

CheapBastard's picture

"Dad, my grades are pending ... but ... I can ass-sure you, they're all A+"

CHX's picture

Actually, the train has already hit and we're just witnessing a slow death of the patient... The difference is really just semantics as the outcome is pretty much carved in stone already.

CH1's picture

Bullish, I tell you!


KnuckleDragger-X's picture

you forgot to add the IT at the end of bullish... :-)

Australian Economist's picture

Liesman Math Question.


Q: What is the average of -2 and 4?


A: (4 + (-2)) / 2 = 3



Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

What do you expect from a liar with a degree in English?

Liesman is an exactly case study of "it's not what you know, but who you know" or in his specific case "it's not what you know, but who's dick you suck"

IANAE's picture

... and that's not even hard maths... well, at least not hard for most. After all, the answer is - has to be - 3, right?

Australian Economist's picture

You would be right if we were actually dealing with reality, but it is August so seasonally adjust that to +3.

Australian Economist's picture

Interesting point, but the real question is who would want their dick sucked by Liesman? Whoever that is, is probably just a frontman for someone else who doesn't want to expose themselves.



Dr Strangemember's picture

Man!  All this dick sucking talk is making me hungry!

Dr Strangemember's picture

Ummmmmm, hey, it's not a lie if he really believes it.  Enjoy your day.  : )

NoDebt's picture

I believe his degree is in Journalism.  He has no degree of any kind in Economics (although he plays an expert economist on TV).

I have more bona fides in Economics than he does, and I'm not exactly the brightest bulb on the Christmas Tree.

clade7's picture

Speaking of dick sucking and Liesman...His hobby is 'Fly fishing'  He's even got the vest!  He's what you call a 'vivid' fly fisherman, he can even unbutton a pair of Levi 501's with his teeth! 

Cthonic's picture

Tracking the fall in thirty year jumbo and jumbo refi rates.

Tsar Pointless's picture

Such pessimism. Here's EconoDay's rosier take on this report.

More and more indications of improvement are coming out of the housing sector, now led by a very strong 3.3 percent rise in the pending home sales index to 105.9. The gain is well above top-end expectations.

Regional data show convincing gains led by the Northeast at 6.2 percent in the month followed by the South, at 4.2 percent, and the West at 4.0 percent. The Midwest is the only region in the minus column, and only at 0.4 percent.

Home sales are getting a boost from new supply coming into the market and a slowing in price appreciation. An improving jobs market and still low mortgage rates are also important pluses. Today's report points squarely at further gains ahead for final sales of existing homes. The Dow is moving off opening lows following the report.

C'mon, everybody. Don't worry, be happy!

insanelysane's picture

Sales are up in the Northeast but it is because banks got a memo from .gov.DEM stating that elections are in November, play ball or be prosecuted.

Dr Strangemember's picture

Hey everybody, my realtor just told me that TODAY was the BEST day to buy real estate!  I was also told that the NAR echoes that sentiment!  Wow, this is awesome news!!!!!!

youngman's picture

I think housing will never go back to the boom times of least I hope is does not....that would mean the government will have to be buying the homes for the people who cannot and should not own one...but the government is dumb and probably will do this...

starman's picture

Youngman I grew up in socialism for 21 years came to the states been here 30 years. I am back where I started in socialism. 

The change has been done in the US.  From here on renters will outweigh owners two to one . The America you've grew up in is gone forever.

ejmoosa's picture

2007 was artificially stimulated.


In theory we could top those days.   But that would mean a complete unwinding of economic stranglehold the US government has implemented upon our economy.  But that isn't going to happen.


We have great potential, but the Federal leash keeps us in place.

Dr. Engali's picture

Home sale growth is going on in the northeast. Looks like people are getting as close to the printers as possible, that and the only sector of the eCONomy that's growing... the government sector.

NoDebt's picture

There's never a recession in DC.

I have a client down there recently bought a house in a nice VA suburb of DC.  Their little ranch house is barely bigger than my own and on a lot less land.  They paid $900K.

Dr. Engali's picture

Crazy. At least we know where the bubble is.

B190769Sonny's picture

Go to Zillow and do your own research.   Their data is far more accurate than anything I have found.  Example:  Single Family and Condo Inventory for the 50 largest metro areas in Jan 2014 was 658,860.   Aug 2014 is 853,511.  Prices have remainded steady during that same period.  

Dr Strangemember's picture

No need show facts to those that think "this time is different".  They'll soon see for themselves... the hard way.  

"government engineered anything = government fail everything"

CheapBastard's picture

Go to almost ANY area on zillow and you'll see literally hundreds of houses and condos for sale ... it's incredible amount of known inventory and you can imagine the 13+ million of unknown, off the record so far, inventory; namely, house occupants who have stopped paying their mortgages but the banks have dragged their feet in foreclosing on them.

orangegeek's picture

interest rate hike scare - buyers trying to lock in now

X86BSD's picture

Prices are so totally out of touch with reality. The wife and I are looking at land to build our forever home on with our own hands. We can't afford pre built homes. The prices are just insane. Literally madness. We can build our home ourselves far cheaper and it will be laid out the way we want. I honestly don't know how anyone can afford a home today. Other than a mortgage you'll never pay off before you die. But then why not rent since that's what you're doing?

Bunga Bunga's picture

Just the weather, can go only up from here. Real estate never goes down. Buy before it's too late.

UndergroundPost's picture

We just had a few days of Monsoon rain in the dry, dusty Arizona desert and my backyard is full of green shoots! I'm pretty sure that if I just let these shoots grow, I'll have a backyard full of beautiful, fruitful and economically rewarding trees - maybe some orange, apple and pear trees, or maybe even some vegetables & herbs will sprout up. Dammit, I might even get a few oaks or tall timber pines from these little green shooters, so I can add a new wing to my house, build a boat or maybe even there will be enough wood to start a new homes construction biz. Thank you Bernanke and Yeller for teaching me about green shoots! Its good to be rich! Wait, hold on. My 4 year old son is saying something. Can't quite understand him since I'm drunk with green shoots punch. "They're what?" I have to yell at him because the little sucker is insistent that I look a little closer at all these 'lil shooters. He's saying they're all weeds. I don't believe him. Yes its true that we don't have oaks and timber in the desert - but things are a changin' aren't they with all that global climate change warming stuff. Maybe there really is a forest popping up in my back yard! WHO THE HELL ARE YOU TO TELL ME THAT MY DREAM PLANTS DON'T GROW IN THE DESERT? Doesn't matter, even if they are only weeds as my 4 year old figured out, I'm sure I can get rich off those too - after all, they are green shoots...and green shoots equal real recovery, then growth, then not-so-excessive exuberance, then bank-silly riches. Where is that little shit anyway - time for him to shut up and take a nap.

ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

It wasn't that subprime lenders caused the problem, especially conceptually,  it was the way these loans were packaged and resold. 

Subprime lenders were allowed to access housing that was "Aspirational" instead of as an alternatative to the rent they were already paying. 

fibonacci's claus's picture

Why does govt lie about everything?  When do I get to revise my numbers a quadrillion times and still not tell the truth.  I was just going over my student loans.  The govt has this truth in lending law.  Well, it seems someone embezzled $100,000.  My school won't answer my emails and phone calls anymore.  Is that a sign of guilt?  The govt tells me I have truth in lending yet they don't know where that money went.  I didn't get it.  If I apply this 100k to my cost of education it looks like the inflation rate on education is more like 30 percent, not the 10-15 you read about in the papers.  I have a feeling that if I persue this I will find that the govt and the school made 100k disappear.  Probly should just let it go right?

Truth in lending is to the affordable care act as the 1,2,3,4,5... amendments are to ?

Justice is to a fair trial as ?  

My father and his father and his father fought WWII for what???