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Here Come The Q3 GDP Downgrades...
Following the significantly weaker-than-expected spending data, the sell-side has begun its inglorious downgrades of the exuberant hockey-stick growth expectations they all extrapolated off Q1 lows... Goldman cut from +3.3% to +3.1% and Barclays slashed Q3 GDP expectations from +2.7% to a mere +2.2%.
Via Goldman,
BOTTOM LINE: The July personal spending numbers were softer than expected, while personal income and the PCE price index were close to expectations. We reduced our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by two-tenths to +3.1%.
MAIN POINTS:
1. Personal income rose 0.2% in July (vs. consensus +0.3%). The core wages and salaries component increased 0.2% as well. Personal spending was considerably weaker than expected, falling 0.1% (vs. consensus +0.2%). Real spending declined 0.2% on the month. Softness was fairly broad based, evident in durable goods (-0.6%), nondurable goods (-0.2%), and services (-0.1%). Real electricity and gas utilities spending fell 7%, subtracting about a tenth off of the headline, likely due to unseasonably cool summer weather. As a result of income growing more quickly than spending, the personal saving rate moved up three-tenths to 5.7%, the highest level since late 2012. Both the headline and core PCE price index rose 0.1% on a rounded basis, in line with consensus expectations. Over the past year, the headline PCE price index increased 1.6% and the core PCE price index increased 1.5%, a still-subdued pace relative to the Fed's 2.0% target.
2. We reduced our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by two-tenths to +3.1%.
Via Barclays,
U.S. 3Q Tracking GDP Lowered to 2.2% From 2.7% at Barclays
Data on July consumer spending suggests “much softer start” to 3Q, Michael Gapen, economist at Barclays, writes in note.
Adjusted for inflation, spending last month below 2Q average
* * *
So much for 2% GDP growth this year...
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Right before the midterm elections? I'd go on the high side, first print. Later revised to 1.6, after the elections.
Exactly. Stupid fucking sheep.
Add in 10% inflation and we are at -7.8% GDP. Winning bitchez!
I was gonna say 7% or so, for -4%, but you beat me to it. Who knows what it really is, but we all know it's at least 3x what they say, and has been for the better part of a decade.
Wishful thinking
After the elections, revised to -2.3%
PS Christmas is on, please spend well into deficit to keep up a good front.
Well piss in my hat! Lets just hope it gets cold and snowy for the Q4 excuses!
the worst is always behind us!
winter ended last March!!
Good news for people who love bad news!
Putin's fault..... or Isis. Good time as any for a false flag and continuity of government.
Doc, follow me on this one.
The economy is permanently damaged since the 2008 financial melt-down/recession (recent study says 70% of people believe this, the other 30% responded 'wut?')
So damaged that not even Obama, in all his magnificence, could turn it around. And if he couldn't, obviously, nobody could.
Therefore, Bush's fault.
I think it makes perfect sense. And I'm smart. I've almost solved the Rubick's Cube I got in 1983.
Dam yu am smart. I only git won colur.
No joke there - you can almost 'feel' something brewing...
I thought that "brewing" feeling was the hot dog I had at the golf course yesterday.
usa production of bullshit IPOs is off the chart!
But... NPR just told me the economy was, like, really neat!
So is that tasty herbal tea washing down 3 Xanax
Who gives a fuck? All US economic data is fake to begin with. What is the point in correcting fake data to generate more fake data? Gives something for CNBS to talk about and keeps corrupt economists employed?
And in many states this includes back to school sales.
Congressional Budget Office is now forecasting the US gdp to do no better than 1.5% for the foreseeable future. Probably true if Obama and Fed policies are allowed to continue unabated.
Hello people Cars sales down check, housing sales down check, retail sales down check, recession in 1 2 3 check!
QE stops so GPD drops. Simple as that. If ECB pumps GDP gets revised upwards.
The word "recession" has been banned. Didn't you get the memo?
I would say: Here Come The Q3 GDP Downgrades again ...