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Ebola Outbreak Spreads To 6th African Nation: 20 Cases In Senegal
Despite border closures, flight bans, cordoning off the sick (and healthy), and rubber (and live) bullets and tear gas on 'protesters'; the world's worst outbreak of Ebola just keeps spreading, now to a sixth African nation. Just day after Congo (5th nation) reported cases of Ebola, as The BBC reports, Senegal's health minister confirmed the first case of Ebola in his nation yesterday and Bloomberg confirms 20 more people are "under surveillance." Meanwhile, in Guinea a Red Cross official said riots had broken out in the nation's 2nd largest city over rumors that health workers had infected people with the virus; and Nigerians are protesting plans to build isolation units in some local clinics. "contained"
Senegal becomes the 6th African nation with Ebola after Congo, Nigeria, Guinea, Sierra-Leone, and Liberia
As The BBC reports, Senegal had tried to block this...
Senegal had previously closed its border with Guinea in an attempt to halt the spread of Ebola, but the frontier is porous.
It had also banned flights and ships from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone - the three worst-hit countries.
But...
- *EBOLA-INFECTED MAN ENTERED SENEGAL BY CAR FROM GUINEA: MINISTER
Awa Marie Coll Seck told reporters on Friday that a young man from Guinea had travelled to Senegal despite having been infected with the virus.
The man was immediately placed in quarantine, she added.
For now he is 'stable'...
- *EBOLA CASE IN SENEGAL IS STABLE, NO FEVER, MAY RECOVER
But...
- *ABOUT 20 PEOPLE UNDER SURVEILLANCE FOR EBOLA: SENEGAL MINISTER
And...
- *SENEGAL WILL REQUEST EBOLA DRUG VIA WORLD HEALTH ORG.: MINISTER
* * *
In Guinea, a 24-hour curfew has been imposed in the second city, Nzerekore, because of a riot after the main market was sprayed with disinfectant in an attempt to halt the spread of the virus.
The exact cause of the riot is not clear - some people reportedly feared the spray would spread Ebola, while other chanted: "Ebola is a lie". Police responded by firing tear gas.
"A rumor, which was totally false, spread that we had sprayed the market in order to transmit the virus to locals," Traore said. "People revolted and resorted to violence, prompting soldiers to intervene."
The city is the capital of the Forest Region, where the Ebola epidemic has its epicentre - near the town of Gueckedou.
However the BBC's Alhassan Sillah in Guinea says the town has miraculously remained free of Ebola so far.
And Nigerians are not happy...
In Nigeria, meanwhile, some have pushed back against government plans to build isolation units in their neighborhoods, even saying they would sooner burn Ebola centers down than allow them to operate.
In the northern city of Kaduna, hundreds of people on Wednesday protested plans to convert sections of a local clinic into an Ebola treatment center. Many carried signs that said: "No Ebola in our hospital."
* * *
Much worse than expected and is crushing Africa's GDP...
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"It's not ebola."
The WHO data are very likely understated. It did not include, for example, cases in DRC until yesterday, August 29, and as of today it still does not include cases in Senegal. WHO also has admitted that there are “shadow zones” in which it cannot count Ebola cases.
Why would WHO deliberately under-report the scope of the epidemic? Likely because the real data would cause fear and panic. Below are WHO’s data reported by healthmap.org with Month over Month (MoM) increases in parentheses:
Apr-1 72
May-1 135 (+88%)
Jun-1 212 (+57%)
Jul-1 467 (+120%)
Aug-1 729 (+56%)
Aug-29 1,565 (+115%)
Here’s where the data get interesting/scary. If you project a 75% increase in MoM deaths starting in September then the calculation is for 25,688 deaths by January 1, 2015.
If you believe that WHO Is under-reporting the actual situation, and instead apply a 150% increase in MoM deaths then there would be 152,863 deaths by January 1.
By the way, if the MoM increase really is 150% then by June 1, 2015 there would be 14,928,050 deaths. (But there would “only” be 421,624 deaths monthly rate of increase is 75%.)
...Wait till Ebola hits Mexico....then w/ open USSA Borders...3..2...1
No ships (departing), no planes (leaving), no problem.
The WHO, going mobile...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToxymSLzJeM
At some point soon Ebola will burn itself out. But 'counts' will keep going up and become ridiculously inflated as WHO and the usual gang of grifters label anyone with the sniffles as a potential Ebola victim. A fantastic $ amount will be attached to the effort to eradicate Ebola and save all humanity.
See the completely phoney African AIDS epidemic that no one talks about anymore.
Maybe, maybe not, depends if its mutated.
What temp. degrees F do you recommend for burning it out ?
"Ebola is a lie" / "Enola will kill you".
Sounds strangely like red team / blue team shit.
Fly one out to wall st.
US announces cure and vaccine.
It is mutating:
The data show that the virus is rapidly accumulating new mutations as it spreads through people. "We've found over 250 mutations that are changing in real time as we're watching."
While moving through the human population in West Africa, she says, the virus has been collecting mutations about twice as quickly as did while circulating in animals for the last decade or so.
"The more time you give a virus to mutate and the more human-to-human transmission you see," she says, "the more opportunities you give it to fall upon some [mutation] that could make it more easily transmissible or more pathogenic"
"The study also details hundreds of genetic mutations that make the current Ebola outbreak different from any in the past. Some of those changes have the potential to affect the accuracy of diagnostic tests or the effectiveness of vaccines and treatments under development for the disease."
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=227038
Forums
Links to the quoted articles are in the forums, should you care to read them.
It will mutate into something harmless.
How would you know? The only mutations you would hear about are the more lethal ones. The more people infected, the more opportunity to mutate.
Mutations aside if the death rate doubles every month the 3 Billion mark will come in mid 2016
I'll be sure to tune into CNN 2 years from now for the body count.
It wouldn't even require that, Aldous. If just one university student in the US gets ebola from one of the African students re-entering the US [see my post below], billions of USD would be poured instantly into effecting a cure or at the very least some sort of innoculation to prevent contracting it. Just one student, that's all it would take.
Good point. Because AIDS is cured and there are no new cases.
Just for reference, the WHO asked for 430 million (or thereabouts) to fund attempts to control this outbreak, which SOUNDS like a lot of money. But, setting aside whether or not they would be able to accomplish what they claim if given that money, I think the relevant point is that, recently the FED was giving 85 BILLION/month to the fucking banks. So they were (and likely still are, even with 'tapering') giving more to the banks every fucking day the market is open than the WHO is requesting in TOTAL to stop an outbreak that has the potential to create a global pandemic causing death at a level none of us have ever seen.
So for me, if we can give the fucking bankers 1 - 4 billion/day to fund their wealth grab and ostensibly keep the crooked, rigged financial system afloat, I'm willing to take a flyer on 430 million to the WHO to try and stop a global plague.
So if the bankers get money WHO should? False dichotomy.
And WHO will stop the outbreak? And the price tag is $430 million? And WHO, who wanted to leave west African airports open, will spend the money effectively, right?
Oh you're OK with taking a flyer with WHO on this? You writing the check, pal?
So what do you recommend? Do nothing?
I'd take it out of the hands of WHO. They are clearly worse than nothing.
What alternative do you propose?
He just wrote that doing nothing is better than having WHO take care of this.
Actuallly doing nothing is the easiest route.
We need to allow the free market come up with solutions.
There will be an incentive to profit once the elite are infected.
Hell I want to go to Liberia, see it for myself, get infected, and come back since I have the RIGHT TO REENTRY.
If there is one person writing this you can wager that there are at least one hundred others who are thinking the same thing.
When applying the brakes does not work then one can always stomp on the gas and accelerate the process.
Yes. You are doomed.
Approximately 10,000 African students from countries with active ebola are now re-entering the US to attend universities here. I posted a break down of how many students from each country yesterday and its available in a previous thread about Ebola.
These returning students are not being quarantined for the 21 incubation days and are not being subject to airport screening other than the obvious 'fever' precaution.
I am not in favor of completely denying them re-entry into the US to complete their university studies, but I do worry that its perfectly possible that they enter while being symptomatically free but do already have Ebola.
I have no easy answers to offer. We just have to wait and see what develops, if anything.
They have to be willing to stop the outbreak. Those Georgia guide stones aren't just for decoration, the elite want a hell of a lot fewer people to share resources with.
FORWARD SOVIET!
Sorry pal, but once a strain mutates to a 21 day incubation period it is NOT going to burn itself out. Why the hell do you think it's lasted 5 months already?
was just thinking this, but the incubation period is 8-10 days usually or a wider 2-21 days according to some sources.
Also like chickenpox, people are not contagious during the incubation period.
"people are not contagious during the incubation period."
There are thinkers/researchers out there who debate this. Folks are having to throw away a great deal they "thought" they knew. Lab workers, health workers getting infected (and dying) is creating a need to question how it is being transmitted.
After the WHO employee infections (would expect them to have the appropriate training and gear), I've wondered if it was just human error or if the infectiousness and transmission ability of the virus is greater than previously thought. Not a comforting possibility.
I've seen apparent footage of health care workers getting ready to handle people who have Ebola, and the rooms that people with Ebola are being held in. If the footage is correct, workers are getting dressed and undressed in mud huts, and the majority of patients are wallowing around naked on mattresses on the floor in a dorm style room. There's no control being exerted (where possible) over the situation given its gravity.
Ebola is an exotic virus and requires BSL-4 equipment and facilites to contain it properly. But that is so it does not escape into the wild. So long as it cannot spread via casual contact healthcare workers don't need the BSL-4 facility to prevent spread because it is already in the wild. They just need to protect themselves. Everyone else is on their own. This is the difference between research efforts and triage efforts. In theory the best containment during spread of the disease really is a high school gym with cots and anyone can go in but nobody comes out until they are free of symptoms or dead.
On a larger scale you can use the military and police to contain entire neighborhoods or villages. It's hell on earth, but you can do it. You'll have bodies in the streets, uncollected dead, children dying of starvation. But you can contain it that way.
You should put aside the Hollywood version of this, it is irrelevant. There are no heros bravely saving the day, or miracle vaccines cooked up at the last instant by a crusty old scientist who nobody believed. Nope not that way. It' just going to be people trying -- and dying -- and dying by hemorrhagic fever is an ugly business and I suggest you not watch.
Thank you, Cougs :)
"healthcare workers .... just need to protect themselves. "
Yes, if they can, otherwise no sense in being a martyr.
"In theory the best containment during spread of the disease really is a high school gym with cots and anyone can go in but nobody comes out until they are free of symptoms or dead."
Sounds about right.
"On a larger scale you can use the military and police to contain entire neighborhoods or villages."
Yes. And ground all flights and close all ports. No sense in giving Ebola a free ride to India, for example.
This is Africa, people, there is no infrastructure. Robust methods are the best methods when you are dealing with dangerous unknowns. Unicorns and skittles will not be one of the choices.
Thanks cougar, I read your and MIffed's posts with eagerness on this subject. I saw pics from Liberia's West Point district, the city of about 50,000, that has been cordoned off with only health workers and those distributing food and water to the residents going in. That's the official line. Unofficially, guards are being paid off to allow some people to leave and come back without being reported. There are also some houses with front doors facing West Point but the back doors facing out. Some of these houses are functioning as "toll booths" to allow people to leave for a fee. There are pics of dead bodies laying on the street with people either walking over them or around them. Wild dogs are eating some of them.
Liberia has announced its going to unseal West Point claiming humanitarian reasons but obviously trying to restrain movement is pointless and costly. People are also swimming off its coastline and onto other city's beaches.
I agree with your point but we, meaning "donations" being made by every country on earth, would have to cooperate fully to build a containment facility like the gym you mentioned. I think we know where that would end.
Thanks again for your input.
Evidently there is some question regarding contagion during the incubation period. One thought is that the health workers are being contaminated prior to a victim's symptoms presenting. I haven't read/heard of a 8-10 day incubation period, I've just read about 21 days. Now WHO is saying quarantine should be double the 21 days or 42 days, not sure why. In any event the incubation period has definitely lengthened from prior outbreaks, that's a new reality. Essentially, even the experts can't be definite about what's transpiring.
"Evidently there is some question regarding contagion during the incubation period."
Oh, some question about the incubation period among experts, but you've got it nailed, right?
LOL.
Asswipe, I'm just posting what the experts are concluding. Some people are utter morons. You are one of them.
thamnosma said:
"Sorry pal, but once a strain mutates to a 21 day incubation period it is NOT going to burn itself out. "
So which expert were you quoting here?
Guess you forgot to erase the back up server. Your stupid contraditions are still on the site.
Why are you such an arrogant asshole? You don't know up from down, you fucking dipshit.
LOL. And you do? And WHO does? Tried and true methods, my friend. Quarantine. And nothing else.
Why would they be dealing with health workers if they are not symptomatic?
Oh, so you're a virologist, are you? I guess Ebola is going around the world then? Well, we'll see. I hope they save some of that tobacco vaccine for you.
And you are??
The Filoviridae are Containment Level 4 pathogens for a reason. I suggest you carefully re-read the WHO Biosafety Manual (free download from the WHO site)
I'm not making any grandiose claims about my knowledge of the virus unlike numerous posers here. It's becoming apparent there are no 'experts'. And given WHO's recent track record and the history of this epidemic, I have little faith in WHO.
Is the WHO biosafety manual protecting WHO workers in this instance? Have THEY read the manual?
He just wrote that the WHO are doing worse than doing nothing.
Actually I am in agreement with him as the WHO have understated information and present the most skewed optimistic projections..
Just three days ago the WHO said that they'd have this controlled after 20,000 infections? I projected that out using my modeling to be within the next 36 days from today. There is not one chance in hell of that happening.
This reminds me of that scene in the 1956 movie version of Orwell's, "1984", when the crowd cries out, "Ooooh. Big Brother...Save us." It was laughable.
Governments do not save anyone.
You are an epidemiologist. You can model this as well as I can. You can understand the outcome as well as I can. This is a predicament and not a problem. There are no solutions...ESPECIALLY POLITICAL SOLUTIONS.
WHO is a United Nations Government organization which is ruled by politics.
If I were you and I wanted to survive this then I'd seriously get your sailboat ready for Pitcarin Island. Brush up on your navigation skills.
People like him will work to ensure the spread of this pandemic. They will be successful. They believe that the world is overpopulated.
What they fail to realize is that the virus is indiscriminate. It cares not about the skill sets of the victims. It cares not about the Socioeconomic Status of the victims.
For instance very few are qualified to run Nuke Reactors. And if Ebola takes half of them out every single Nuke Reactor in the World melts down. Ebola can care less about that.
He tempts me to take that trip to Africa and return to the USA. I just do not care to survive it. The secondary affects of the resultant infrastructure collapse will kill many more than the primary pandemic.
I do not care to live in such a post modern ecological nightmare. Life will be dismal at best for those whom survive. You can kiss your modern world goodbye.
If this pandemic is not an outright ELE then it certainly will be a regression to neolithism. That is not a World that I want to live in.
Mal-tease-foul-con.
Good troll name.
I'll give you what you crave...
Go revel in some bodily fluids. Throw a Bukakke party. Give a bunch of anonymous blow jobs in a bathroom stall somewhere. Make sure to get your ass kicked first so that you have some open sores. It's the week end, you deserve it.
LOL. Mad bro?
Lets just see how it all plays out, kids. Ebola has broken out many times, killed some people and then disappeared. The disappearing part is a fact. Despite what you think you know about incubation periods and different strains and their importance, it has always died out. The fact is you all know virtually nothing.
But never let a crisis go to waste, right children? AIDs was going to empty out Uganda and eastern Africa. Simple malnutrition was labeled AIDS. Are there any people left in Uganda, pinheads?
"Despite what you think you know about incubation periods and different strains and their importance, it has always died out. "
All swans are white.
Taking previous outbreaks as data, the 'black swan' scenario' is 0 for forever.
Another set of data is the recent performance of WHO, besides this outbreak, there is AIDs in Africa; not a pandemic and H1N1; I guess we didn't all need to get mercury-laced vaccines for that one.
Quite a losing streak for WHO.
I suspect that WHO has a priority that is higher than the public's health.
Previous outbreaks. It depends on what kinda time frame ya wanna look at...
History featuring some pandemics from around the web.
The Antonine Plague from the year 165-180. Five million die from what is now thought to have been smallpox. Thought to have started in what is now Iraq and spread to Rome as soldiers returned home from conquering them.
The Plague of Justinian- In 541, rats on Egyptian grain boats brought what was probably Bubonic Plague to the Easter Roman Empire. Killed approximately 25 million people. Scholars estimate that at one point 5,000 people were dying, per day. Wiped out 40% of Constantinople, and 25% of the eastern Mediterranean.
The Black Death- 1347-1351 Bubonic Plague, World population thought to be 450 Million. Low estimates suggest 75 million deaths, high estimates 200 million deaths. Half of Europe wiped out in 4 years.
The Flu Pandemic of 1918(called Spanish flu incorrectly)- March 1918-1919, influenza broke out in a US military camp in Kansas. Within 6 months the virus had infected 40% of the worldwide population and killing an estimated 50 million people. In the United States, nearly 675,000 people died. Most that died were healthy adults; the highest casualty rates were for those in the 20 – 50 year old age range. Recently, scientists found the virus preserved in the permafrost of Alaska. They are working to resurrect the virus to prevent future outbreaks, but some wonder if they are playing with fire.
HIV/AIDS- Still ongoing. The earliest documented case was in 1959 in the Congo. First recognized as a disease in 1981 when referred to as GRID. In 1982 they renamed it AIDS. As of 2011, 60 million infected, 25 million dead. In 2008 an estimated 1.2 million Americans had HIV, Sub-Saharan Africa was home to 22.9 million cases, with one in five adults infected. About 35.3 million people were believed to have HIV in 2012.
Smallpox- highly contagious disease that is estimated to have killed 300–500 million people during the 20th century. Although the disease was thought to be successfully eradicated in 1979, a few recent cases have popped up, most notably one in a research laboratory that was responsible for smallpox research. The World Health Organization has recommended the destruction of all remaining lab samples of the virus, to date that has not been done. (Is this a good or bad idea, getting rid of it all?)
Cholera Outbreaks- During the 19th century, Cholera outbreaks were responsible for killing tens of millions of people throughout the world. Worldwide, it still affects 3–5 million people every year and is responsible for somewhere around 100,000–130,000 deaths annually.
I was thinking exclusively of Ebola outbreaks. I don't think Ebola will do well in temperate climates.
As for the other outbreaks, yeah it's happened. Not very often. The world didn't get wiped out. If WHO had been around then things wouldn't have turned out any differently, IMHO.
The first world as a whole has a pretty good handle on naturally occurring diseases these days.
On the other hand, the plagues you've cited occur when 'globalizing' forces are acting. Certainly that is the case now. Guess that's why I wanted west African airports sealed for the duration. WHO disagreed and they stayed open.
Oh well. Guess we'll just have to wait and see what WHO does with their $.5 billion.
>>The first world as a whole has a pretty good handle on naturally occurring diseases these days.
Really? Has the first world ever stopped an outbreak of the seasonal flu cold?
Even assuming that they do have a good handle on ebola in the first world this is going to wipe out half to 3/4 of the third world.
I am confident of my own personal ability to handle colds and flus. No vaccine for me.
"that has bad sanitation, crowding and second rate or lower medical care is FUCKED"
Good sanitation is the 80/20 of public health. Any government that has not adequately dealt with that issue in the 21st century isn't worth a damn.
The most dangerous asshats in the world are those that are overconfident in their ability to control the known risks.
I'll take my chances with colds and flu. I don't want any advice from you there. Frankly, it's none of your goddamned business.
In regards to Ebola, the more dangerous asshats are those who are overconfident in the ability to control unknown risks.
Like the known risk that ebola can only transfer via bodily fluids and is only contagious once an infected individual is showing symptoms? Is this why so many medical professionals are getting Ebola despite following the known risk mitigation strategies?
Are any of your statements true?
It does not matter if you think that it will, or will not, do well in temperate climates.
Ebola has not once appeared in a densely populated area previous to this outbreak.
The rates of infection are in remarkable agreement with the exponential modeling.
The Second Derivative, the change of the rate of change, is also in agreement.
This is demonstrating acceleration in the rates of infection.
Have you even taken any time to deal with the MATH?
The Laws of Physics and of Mathematics are UNIVERSAL. They cross over to all disciplines of Scientific study.
You are either someone who desires a neolithic age or a useful tool of those whom do.
One question for you Tom.
Do you still think its hyperbole to say asymptomatic transmission is likely?
There is an incubation period after all.
I believe that there will be some with immunity. Those will be carriers. But they will be few noting the pathogen's virulence. So it is possible. But it is not likely.
Edit...Read Parrotile's response...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-30/ebola-outbreak-spreads-6th-african-nation-20-cases-senegal#comment-5164208
As far as the 'MATH' goes, I stayed at a Holiday Inn ExpressTM last night and I have an advanced degree in mathematics. Your exponential model is naive. It's missing something very important. How do I know? No previous outbreak of Ebola or 99.99% of all pathogens strictly follow an exponential model. If they did, we'd have all been exposed to Ebola already and little 'Tall Tom' might not be here.
Do you remember the great Ebola plague of 1857? I hope not. It never happened.
"...little 'Tall Tom' ..."
Thank you for the ad hominem concession.
I concede nothing, little 'Tall Tom'.
Far worse than that Ms.
Plague was still prevalent in London uptil the Great Fire in 1666 with outbreaks on a regular
basis for each new generation that was not immune. So no mass, mass deaths, but a regular toll
none the less.
I have to agree! It seems the real pandemic here is fear! The very reason why the Federal Reserve felt the need to go bananas and destroy the entire financial system so the U.S. wouldn't implode from the fear of facing a deep recession. Nobody seems to care about anything the media doesn't blow out of proportion and it seems the poster wants everyone to panic over a statistically insignificant disease in a world with a population of 7 billion+. Fear not, the Fed Reserve will happily print trillions more to save you from your fear of getting this rare ailment as it will also help pump up the stock prices of the healthcare industry. So yeah, I do see these pandemic articles of fear as a similar tactic that the CB's used of justifying excessive overreaction to what is an unsavory problem. Care should be taken but inciting fear like this is just as wrong as when the gov't does it to further an agenda like with the WMD's.
I'll accept the downvotes from those already panicked people for this opinion but then you are just justifying this tactic for all the other entities that use it for their purposes good or bad.
The Congo strain is not the same strain and is a seperate outbreak unrelated to the current epeidemic. Given this is the Zaire Strain the fatalities have not been as extensive as previous outbreaks. The longer this puppy is playing in humans the more chance is has to mutate. Must be very frightening for the citizens there. Having lousey governance makes it so much worse.
Having no money sucks big time.
GDP per capita is not an awful predictor of who is going to deal with this thing. I'm sure it won't stick to the lower end of the charts, but right now it is.
I'm not sure they get it yet. I'm still surprised at the number of riots where they burn down clinics or attack care workers thinking these are the source of the disease. Of course, the Western world has benefited from the germ theory of disease for over a century, we shouldn't assume too many others get that part. But it still surprises me.
It would be a triumph of irony if human behavior -- rather than viral behavior -- allowed this to kill more of us than it had any expectation to.
"I'm still surprised at the number of riots where they burn down clinics or attack care workers thinking these are the source of the disease."
When will these crazy negroes learn to trust the white man. You came in peace after all.
Stop being a fucking troll.
The Congo strain is not the same strain and is a seperate outbreak unrelated to the current epeidemic.
If this turns out to be the case then that has just compounded the predicament as the serums will be made strain dependent.
Ebola could never be a threat to the USSA. We have Obamacare to save us!
Forward (over the cliff)!
If this continues until November 1st on trend, people will be good and panicked by then well before the actual figures get bad. Economies tanking, borders closed, the whole shebang.
5000 dead in November and we will be in new territory.
This has the potential to reduce the population of Africa in half by this time next year.
Cases are doubling every 29 days - http://www.geert.io/exponential-growth-of-ebola.html
If that holds, May 2015 will be first month to break 1M new cases; we'll see about 1.5M new cases and 750K fatalities... During the month of May, 2015. Cumulative cases and fatals will be about twice that.
Meanwhile... Patients being shipped to US, UK, and DE. Two patients in the US "recovered" and have been "released". Never-mind that they could be contagious for 2-3 months.
Long: N99 masks
Short: Residential real estate
There is an acceleration of the Doubling Rate as well. I do not know when that was written but my calculations demonstrate that doubling now happens every 12.9 days.
However that Doubling Rate will be slower to decrease. (It will not decrease to zero unless there were an infinite amount of cases possible....which there are not.)
This is to be expected as it is an exponential function.
It will get worse. The thing with Ebola is that it takes a WEEK for even SYMPTOMS to show up. By that time it has already spread to others who in turn each have a WEEK before their symptoms show up.
Then there's another week of debilitating sickness where patients die slow, painful deaths, all while people are coming into contact with them. Combine this with stone age sanitation practices in dense urban areas and...yeah...it's underreported.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/faq-ebola/en/
"They are not contagious during the incubation period."
So...the virus flips a switch and you collapse into a puddle of hemorragic diarrhea?
Exactly.
Assuming (and it is a BIG ask) that there is absolutely NO possibility of cross-infection during the initial incubation phase, then how long is the duration from initial (mild) symptom development, to the "I really need to go to the Hospital / Clinic" level of disability, especially in view of the pretty inadequate level of primary and secondary healthcare in these Countries.
Minutes? Hours? Days??
The reality is that there is very little credible information anywhere on this very important metric. Add in those who (by sheer luck in the Genetic Lottery) will have a less severe course of infection, and we could have a variable "window of contagion", maybe of a reasonable length (days?) which would make contact tracing real fun, especially in a busy Metropolitan area!
There has been no stuides done on cross infection during the incubation phase?
What about the Laboratory Animal studies?
I have some hope that the research shed some light onto this metric. Otherwise how can the World Health Organization make such a claim without substantial evidence? Are the researchers that INCOMPETENT?
I do believe that there will be some "Typhoid Marys" out there, with immunity, and acting as a carrier, a host, a vector. But, by the numbers, these will be very few and the liklihood is diminished due to the lethality of this pathogen.
(Of course their blood may be harvested as a base for a serum, perchance? Furthermore the survivor's blood, perhaps, will have antibodies and also can be used to isolate and manufacture a serum.)
But by the numbers, considering the virulence of Ebola, the lack of empirical evidence of those with immunity during our entire known history of dealing with this nightmare, I believe that those with immunity will be few and far between.
Please clarify. There has been no research into asymptomatic transmission?
Animal studies do not necessarily scale to human studies. Even Primate studies are not directly comparable.
As to Human studies - relatively tiny sample sizes, very poor information on duration of infection (Africa on the whole has very poor health surveillance infrastructure), so the historical data are dubious to say the least. "Clinical Trials" are out of the question on obvious ethical grounds!!!
As to the duration of the "pre-completely-morbid" window of infectivity, seeing as we've got an incubation period ranging from 2 days (WHO original figures) to 21 days, we'd probably be looking at a variable period, depending on the Patient, and depending on the severity of the infection (survive, survive [with permanent injury] or dead).
There has been some relevant info. published in the past, but note that the current outbreak is large, and we already know that genetic adjustment (to the "new host") is taking place, so data from prior outbreaks may only be a rough guide as to what to expect, especially as the number of human - human passages mounts up.
Anyway, these are a good read if only to provide background (in view of all the above provisos!)
http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/196/Supplement_2/S142.full
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2870608/
General info - http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php
and ex. CDC - http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/pdf/fact-sheet.pdf
"Enjoy" (if that's the right word for this!)
Yeah....Enjoy... Right.
Thanks.
To get a bit of insight on this read Return of the Black Death: http://www.amazon.com/Return-Black-Death-Worlds-Greatest/dp/0470090006/r...
Very informative though still controversial.
I'm sort of leaning the other way. We live in a world of false flags and I don't think it's ironic that the World Health Organization issues scary press releases and they says they need a billion dollars.
I'm just a cautious obeserver, but I'm not betting that anyone is under sensationalizing this. Under reporting doesn't sell. Over reporting does whether it's Ebola or a Tropical Storm.
Vegas should be taking odds on this event with time and body count. I'd put money on, a year from now looking back and what a big deal we made of this Ebola outbreak and shaking our heads as WHO and the CDC and a couple Pharmacuitical companies laugh all the way to the bank.
Cynic.
I met a little old black woman with a banjo in a dream last night. She told me to meet her in Colorado cornfield. She calls herself Mamma Abagail......
Obamacare to the rescue when Ebola Hemmorhagic Fever makes its first appearance in the USA. Not!
"Weaponized" it's what is done when you have psychopathic inbred Luciferian goblins running the levers of power.
Meanwhile...the U.S. and Europe allow inbound flights, boats, and people on crutches to stream across the borders unfettered - while sending doctors and aid workers to get infected then fly them back home.
If the Ebola virus were sentient it would emit a hearty "Woo-Hoo!"
Not surprising when the group comprising the 'smartest people in the room' doesn't include any adults.
The fact is that they still don't know which type of Ebola they're fighting is what's really troubling.
Normally, the kill rate is so high that ebola just stops because it runs out of hosts to fast.
The fact that the people can still stravel is the biggest problem where normally it doesn't.
A 3 week incubation period changes the matrix, for sure.
And the way you get sick also.
Secondly: in 2 to 3 months from now, people in Europe and America will start to get the flue. This virus can also help to spead the decease a lot faster.
For one, there's to many people with the symptoms that look like Ebola.
Weakened persons can get it faster.
And all the reasons why flue spreads are nearly the same as ebola's so it seems.
Some fascinating issues here. Could Ebola piggyback onto other viruses?
It get more unseen in the population.
It has the same sympthoms as flue and you can't put everybody who has flue into quarintine so there will be people with ebola but where everybody thinks he has the flue and more days will pass so spreading will go faster and deeper into the population.
European winter, nicely congested mass-transit systems (I'm thinking London Underground during the Rush Hour, or any major EU Transport Hub during peak travel time), along with the CDC saying that a 3 metre or less separation required PPE.
Might never happen, but if it does, "look out below!"
Maybe it will piggyback on pizza.
"Citizen, step away from the calzone and wash your hands."
Maybe it will mutate and the incubation period will increase to 100 years.
"Good thing the cancer got him. He had Ebola"
Or maybe $1 billion will be ponied up to WHO and we'll all just forget about it.
Viruses trade genetic material all the time. That's why they need a new flu vaccine every year, and they're only guessing as to which strain is coming this year.
It's also why the vaccine ends up targetting the wrong flu and is useless.
Someone once famously said "Keep your eye on the ebola"
Your little league coach?
They should build an ice wall around Liberia.
Is that how WHO is spending the money? It's definitely out-of-the-box thinking. I applaud it.
Don't worry, we got it covered. It's a money maker in the long run. :)
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2014/08/us-government-holds-ebola-v...
http://www.google.com/patents/US20120251502
http://www.globalresearch.ca/why-does-the-cdc-own-a-patent-on-ebola-inve...
Don't worry, it's not airborne. /sarc
Once it makes it to the US via the Southern border, we should call it the Obamada Strain.
It's contact, you need lots of people in close quarters, kind of like the people coming over the border then shipped to internments and high density populations all over the country. This is going to end well, esecially for places like LA and Chicago.
I think they're LYING about it not being airborne. It won't be the first time the WHO/CDC/DHHS or doctors have lied to the people. I'm sure this won't be the last. Someone please explain how 270 healthcare workers have come down with the disease using protective equipment and procedures if it's merely contact through unsanitary conditions?
I'm waiting...
I call incompetence, they don't know if its airborne or not. If it is we could have an interesting winter as humans huddle together inside alot more.
Still no confirmation (or denial) of the suspected cases in Delhi. I've never been but Id guess this could spread like wild fire in a densly populated city of 22m with very little in the way of hygeine.
Airborne? You decide.
http://healthmap.org/site/diseasedaily/article/pigs-monkeys-ebola-goes-a...
Yeah, I was going to comment on how bad this gets if it ever makes it to Mumbai or Calcutta, but you beat me to it. Delhi region is just as dense and slum-like.
When you get too many rats in a cage, bad things happen. At some point the parabolic human population growth that began around 1900 had to peak. Couldn't go on forever, nothing in the biological world does. Too much growth too rapidly. Search out a human population growth chart. Looks just about the same as the Fed's balance sheet. Slow steady growth from the time of Christ to 1900. Then straight up. Advances in medicine basically eliminated most childhood deaths as well as maternal deaths during delivery. Of course, there was no change in behavior to compensate for those changes and people continued to have 5-10 kids.
South Asia seems like a perfect cauldron.
Perverts! (I mean the healthcare workers who were getting it. Not sure why it placed the response here)
The Purelle ran out.
New York Times, August 28
MONROVIA, Liberia — Some people are swimming in and out of the Ebola quarantine zone in this seaside capital. One man slips out every day to reach his job at a Western embassy. Another has turned his living room into a tollbooth, charging others to escape through his apartment at the edge of the cordoned area. Countless others have used a different method: bribing their way out with fees that soldiers determine according to a person’s appearance, circumstances and even gender.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/29/world/africa/in-liberias-capital-an-ebola-outbreak-like-no-other.html
ABC News, August 27
Inside the barrier, there is desperation. Behind the gate of a three-story apartment complex, 20 people pleaded with me to share their story. We have nothing to eat, nothing to drink, no medical care, they said. We have children, they told me. They have been told they are under quarantine for 21 days to make sure they don't have Ebola. This makes no sense.
"Please let people know we are here," said a man concerned that his children have nothing to eat. "We only have tea."
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/inside-slum-cut-off-ebola-outbreak/story?id=25149920
ABC News, August 27
…trucks exited West Point loaded with water. "Why is the water coming out?" I asked. "They have raised the prices," Steven told me. "We cannot afford the water. Many can't buy the food."
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/inside-slum-cut-off-ebola-outbreak/story?id=25149920
If they actually wanted those people to stay in the quarantine area they would see they had water and food.
quarantine just got lifted.
party time!
a New York Times link followed by a ABC news link then multiple posts.. guess it's not too early to start drinkin???
There's conditioning going on, no doubt. To what end?
One scenario is that this will lead to a full clamp-down in developed countries after it's first modeled in Africa.
Another scenario is that Ebola is so nasty that it can't be hidden and even the MSM is being forced to report.
I don't get all my info from alternative sources or from MSM sources. To me, the key is to read what's out there. And what's out there paints a pretty grim picture.
Still, a 3-day weekend at hand so drinking is a fine choice.
Cheers!
"I don't get all my info from alternative sources or from MSM sources."
How about local sources?
http://www.liberianobserver.com
Awesome link. The internet fucking rules!
Follow the link. Scroll down to " more headlines"
Knuckles died!
Knuck? You ok?
to reach his job at a Western embassy.
Of course as soon as they get the sniffles those embassy personnel will run home to mama.
New York Times, August 28
“The Conakry outbreaks have been very small, and they haven’t exploded in Freetown,” said Dr. Armand Sprecher, an Ebola expert for Doctors Without Borders here. “So something is different in Monrovia. It’s something in the disease transmission behaviors in Monrovia that has done this. That’s my guess. We’ve never seen this kind of explosion in an urban environment before.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/29/world/africa/in-liberias-capital-an-ebola-outbreak-like-no-other.html
"In Nigeria, meanwhile, some have pushed back against government plans to build isolation units in their neighborhoods, even saying they would sooner burn Ebola centers down than allow them to operate."
Ya, that should stop it from spreading.
I expect they would find more acceptance if the isolation units were built in government buildings - the presidential palace, parliament, the division of motor vehicles, if they have such an entity.
Burning things sounds right.
The irrational behavior of frightened humans is truly scary. "No ebola in our hospitals" really means, "No hospitals for our ebola patients."
Ever see a large crowd really panic ?
I have, and will do almost anything to avoid being in a crowd again.
There are a few things that scare the shit out of me.
1. Ebola
2. Large crowds that are scared/hungry/angry
3. Poisenous snakes
4. Speling
4. Spelling Tests
oops. so sue me
I have as well. Changed my behavior.
There are many here on ZH, and in general, who look at the african citizen's reaction to this disease and see it as ignorant and primitive. With all the riots, escaping patients and mistrust in government and medics, it might well be forgiven. However, if any of you believe that, if this thing ever gets a foothold in the US, our citizenry will act in anymore of an enlightened manner, you are sorely mistaken.
Probably far worse. Africans are very fatalistic , Americans, not so much.
Africans are used as human guinea pig by Western drugs companies, that coupled with a complete lack of education means they're only too willing to believe they can cure AIDs by fucking a 12 year old virgin or get rid of Ebola with their guns.
I can't see 350 pound, out of shape, diabetic Americans doing much.
"Africans are used as human guinea pig by Western drugs companies, that coupled with a complete lack of education means they're only too willing to believe they can cure" the problem by running off the white man and burning down the white man's 'hospitals'.
They are also a lot tougher. Harder life, so fitter population.
It's enlightening to compare my stays in Africa (no-one EVER had any "Allergies" to ANY of the medications we used), with my day-to-day Patients in pampered Australia, where every other chart has an "allergy" on it - usually something trivial, or something that's a known side-effect.
Last week's crop included allergies to Clopidogrel (makes me bleed!!), Aspirin (gives me chest pains, i.e. indigestion!!), and ACE1 inhibitors (makes me cough slightly!!)
If or when Ebola (or something similar) arrives in The West, it'll be very interesting to see how things pan out, and the level of social disruption that ensues.
Hey Doc, can I get a script for oxy? My arm hurts and my rent's due.
Would this be the "Oxy" you're looking for?? - http://www.theguardian.com/society/2011/may/30/oxi-crack-cocaine-south-america
Seems to have something in common with this - http://lightbox.time.com/2013/12/05/the-worlds-deadliest-drug-inside-a-krokodil-cookhouse/
Cheap but deadly - "who would have imagined this"!!
Watching the ignorant savages tout their superiority to the noble savages is entertaining, but not in the least enlightening.
The rubber (of theory) doesn't meet the road (of practice) until ebola becomes personal.
So lets say ebola continues to spread, and at some point in the next year you go out to a restaurant for dinner and drinks and then wake up the next day with a headache and diarrhea (or any other combination of possible ebola symptoms that could also have an entirely coincidental genesis).
At what point do you turn yourself in to whatever Oceania's version of a FEMA camp is? (Knowing full well that regaless of the level of gilding or medical infrastructure in the bridcage-- in a best case scenario, you will be isolated with others suspected of contracting ebola, and thereby exponentially increase your chances of infection in the event you are not already infected...)
(Assuming your answer is anything other than immediately...) What precautions and other measures do you take until the threshold for surrender to authorities is reached?
Which citizens? Americans, or foreigners with US citizenship? I imagine the reaction will be markedly different in Detroit, Ferguson, and Birmingham than, say, Salt Lake City.
Its more about human nature in general. When faced with an invisible enemy that may be residing in even friends and family, especially when confidence in authority positions is at an all time low, people's rationality tends to go right out the window, regardless of national borders.
Which is why so many white people rioted during the Spanish flu outbreak. Oh, wait...
The Mormons are prepared to hunker down and ride out a shitstorm like this. If the walking dead come calling, I imagine they're prepared to deal with that, too.
The Mormons have food stocks. They can isolate themselves. Salt Lake City would be fine under quarantine.
Racist! HATE!!