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The Fall Is Golden For Bullion Bulls
September is the hottest month of the year for gold prices, rising on average 3% over the past 20 years. As the yellow metal tests hovers off 2-month-lows, Bloomberg notes that "Indian jewelers and dealers will be stocking up in the coming weeks," ahead of the festival period, which runs from late August to October (andis followed by the wedding season) when bullion is bought for part of the bridal trousseau or in jewelry form as gifts from relatives. As GoldCore's Mark O'Byrne notes, "a lot of traders are aware of this trend towards seasonal strength... They tend to buy and that creates momentum."
Chart: Bloomberg
Some color on the week's Precious Metals Trading from Alasdair Macleod of GoldMoney,
The pattern of trading in precious metals changed for the better this week. After London's bank holiday on Monday, for the first time in a long time the market opened in London's pre-market with higher prices. This indicated Asian or Middle-Eastern physical demand was returning to the market. Predictably, prices drifted lower during London hours as paper trading took over, and all the gains were more or less lost by close of play on Comex in New York.
It was a similar story on Wednesday. Yesterday, (Thursday) started the same way, but this time the move gained more traction; but volumes remain pitifully low, in common with open interest. Today this pattern was not repeated with gold kicking off unchanged on overnight levels. However, gold is up $15 on the week and feels more firmly based.
Measured by deliveries on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Chinese demand is increasing, with last week's figure rising to 46 tonnes, having increased every week in August. So far this year over 1,200 tonnes have been delivered, and the extension of trading and therefore potential demand into the Free Trade Zone is due to kick off in September.
The chart of the gold price and open interest on Comex is shown below.

August is a notoriously poor trading month, with traders in the northern hemisphere on holiday, or at least not thinking about markets. September is wake-up time, and statistically the best month for gold. Will this be the pattern this year?
Trading in silver continues to be healthier, even if the price performance has been disappointing, with the gold/silver ratio rising to 66 from 63 earlier in the month. Open interest had its first significant fall on Wednesday, when the price rose marginally. This suggests that on balance there is some bear closing in futures. The action is shown in our next chart.

Could this be a harbinger of better times? Quite likely: being mostly an industrial metal, there is some evidence that commercial users are locking in low prices by holding futures positions. Bear in mind that two years ago, users probably estimated silver prices at $35+ in their business plans, so current prices for them are too good to miss.
Quick side-note: palladium continues to power ahead, having made all-time highs consistently in recent months to challenge $900 this week.
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"palladium continues to power ahead"
If that is so, it certainly isn't due to increased industrial production of electronics and catalytic converters.
November event all at once,,,,,until then who gives a rats azz if it's 1486 or 1150' it's all in the nikkei head and shoulders and the stock Sotheby's which predicted the end game in the 08 collapse, Nasdaq bubble an 80's collapse 11 months to the day,,,,,,,see u all in November,,,,,,deflationary collapse equals hyperinflation bitchez
Thats right. I didnt think about that.
Um, I hate to point this out but August is the third best month........just not in 2014? The most promising sign for PM's is that Shanghai's silver inventory is all but gone. Hopefully, the Chinese will start buying on Comex and LBMA. And stand for delivery. If so, things could start to get quite interesting quite quickly.
PS. Palladium suppliers: South Africa (When not striking) and Russia (When not sanctioned). Hmmm......................
Unfortunately, until TPTB's "control" slips again...
The price of Gold will continue to be capped.
The gold market is just too small - and they have too much power.
thats right these DIRTBAGS are stocking up, and screwing the little guy over. WHile keeping the price low.
But maybe the market has gone up too much, and about to stall and give gold a bit of a run -> http://bit.ly/1fMcakI
These are some intersting charts.....but I have heard there are a few guys on youtube tellling the truth about gold in gold vaults, and that would make you cringe if you knew the truth and trouble being caused there.
these DIRTBAGS are stocking up
Yep, they and the ChiComs, who are buying as a hedge for when they finally kiss-off their US Dollar debt.
Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world - Alan Greenspan, Testimony before US House Banking Committee, May 1999
Yiu can call it what you want, but there are many events that have the world shaking. The politicians lie about unemployment statistics while debt froths out of control. Socities are collapsing, Ferguson and the French government, but the media portays these acts as noise.
The financial events are nuanced unless to a trained eye. Fiat currency pays dues and the dues abound like doves at a Prince concert. Yellen but before her the dovish Bernanke kept Greenspan policies that drove markets wild - left, firght down and sideways. This while universities paid teachers absurd sums to spit this theoretic bullshit.
The events line up. Yes they sure do.
@ I MISS KUDLOW > I Don't!
Supply side theories aside, it is a needed commodity indeed.
If the Fed keeps printing, Golds going to fly
If China keeps buying, Golds going to fly
If the Arab spring keeps happening, Golds going to fly
If the Syrian crisis keeps happening, Golds going to fly
If the Ukrainian crisis keeps going , Golds going to fly
If ISIS keeps happining, Golds going to fly.
If Hammas and the IDF keep fighting Golds going to fly
But but no , it'll be the Indian festival season
Sorry, but Gold is going to get smashed,poleaxed,tatooed and monkeyhammered.
Gold goes up when TF metals site closes and Zero Hedge longs stop Jizzying over each other.
The gold cheer leading on ZH is unscientific and over the top. I'm sure it grabs lots of eye balls though
As the fall being 'golden', LOL. For nearly ten years, every day was golden. That's what a bull market looks like.
I suspect the reason for gold's bull market and its end will never surface on ZH. Plenty of guesses.
Gold? What's gold? Oh...wait. That's the stuff that used to be money before the internet...right? My grandpa once gave me some coins that were....no I think that was silver. Lousy stuff. Turned my hands grey. Some wacko must have come up with the crazy thought of that being good for money.
Thank Grid for Bitcoin. That will always be.....oh wait...the lights just flickered....now I'm going to have to right this post again. Darn volatile memory. Hey! Where's my Bitcoin wallet???!!!! Son-of-a ....there goes the lights again.....
It will go up or down depending on what JP Morgan & co. wants it to do, doesn't matter what month it is.
gold will break $1100 this fall. Multi year Bear trend intact and continuing. see you in triple digits
I agree.. dollar strength vs every other shitty currency, commodity complex continues to dump.. no reason to be long gold at this point
Too many things are on the brink of having the wheels fall off to dismiss gold going forward. The financial authorities seem to be using a lttle too much bailing wire and duct tape to deal with non stop issues in the banking world. Falling commodity prices reflect a general slowing of the economy. How many people will no longer be able to service their debt as things slow? In a credit based money system the financials can easily become insolvent as the economy declines. Physical gold, privately held; remains one of the few means of reducing exposure to the financial sector.
Unless of course you are ok with another round of Fed bailouts.
Too bad you're not James Turk. Anyhting he says about PMs, the exact opposite has happened since 2011.
...and by "multi year bear trend" you mean ass fucking manipulation. Every mine will shutter at 1100. It's horseshit and you know it.
I hear the Gold manipulators are planning to ban the Indian festival season. Those bastards !
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-13/cftc-investigating-london-gold-...
Nah, Indian weddings are just going to start celebrating and paying dowries with GLD shares and futures contracts. Until they're straightened out by the WGC and Jeffery Christian, and realize that there's no demand for gold.
since sep. 2011, every sep. the au price had started big drop until december.
What's that sound? Whistling past the P/M yard...
Buy physical, Buy Physical```~~~~
No offence fellas, I bought some xag this weekend.
I really like the xag chart/ It's lagged XAU.
I have Sept 20 SLV $18.50 calls. I hope I don't get wiped out like so many times in the past.
Nice work! ;-)
Donating money to the option writers - that's charitable of you, but I think by this point they're probably doing ok, you might want to keep that cash for yourself or just buy some bullion.
bullion does not give me100%. return in slw options in two month......TWICE this year.
The Silver chart looks good ????
Has Silk Road reopened ? Yer it looks good if you invert it.
ah gold, the zh version of hopium. crackheads.
A proactive gold bug named Vijay
had sovereigns sewn into his PJ’s
“It’s there just in case
they blow us to Space”
. . . his wife has them listed on eBay
My Ask remains @ $10,000USD.
Gold, bitchez.
The Indians and Pakis I work with breath gold in the Fall. I heard some already talking about whether to buy bars or the Perth Mint 24k 2015 Goats. I can only imagine how many gold 2014 horse coins they bought.
Aren't they shouldn't at each other right now?
"The War in the Clouds" or something like that?
There is some cycle driven upward pressure in gold price coming.
Gold Cycle Model Chart
the same song and dance buy it to protect your ass ets and when and if it's time to use we can hope to use it then. this up and down bullshit stories are and will be manipulated till the end. unlimited paper gold can and will be printed
I don't see gold going below 1200, most likely direction over the next year or two is upwards, Sept is often a real good month, fall/winter is best time.... although it was lousy last year. miners are depressed as hell right now. Lots of people hate gold, especially lately, so it could be a real good time to pick some gold, or miners if you want better leverage and aren't afraid of everything and the kitchen sink being sucked down in the big plunge that could hit any day.
InOtherWords, They can't short gold fast enough against the devaluing dollar for the price to fall below $1200/oz.
Porn charts for gold perma-bulls and gold shills. But potentially useful for front-running.
Many of us who hold significant PM bullion have become rather jaded -- given the Gold-QE decoupling we've seen since Oct. 2012. Odds are we bought at >$1500 and are holding it out of a combination of Tradition, Chronic-Worry and sheer libertarian Stubbornness (Told-you-so, Schadenfreude and hopes of a Windfall). Guilty as charged.
As I've said many times in the last year and a half... The Sideways market will continue and be channel-bound -- until TPTB decide otherwise. Stack or speculate accordingly.
Spock to Kirk!
El Capitan' I'm givin Er all she's got. The usdx is up 4% in 8 weeks!
I love your posts and respect them. The $ is going to slide.
A more interesting theory is that gold will rise with the dollar...
Disabled mind, XAU is priced in $. The reserve currency thing. That's why "Dennis Dingmn" buys gold vs Yen and Euro.
When he cashes in , the trade is net $ positive. Hypothetically...
Okay Mr, know it all/ Here's the usdx daily chart with Fibi's (drawn) for your convenience.
http://i.imgur.com/o10PWbN.png
It boils down to the all-in mining cost; the cost of extraction and refinement - which averages around $1200/oz in the industry.
The physical POG cannot go below that or more accurately, cannot stay below that point for long. That would be a total abortion and any market pushing that shit would be abandoned faster than a Liberian streetwalker with a hacking cough.
In point of actual fact, that abandonment is already happening.
All you and I can do is trade with this knowledge - that the PM market is an abortion in the West and you trade paper at your own risk - but that $1180-1200 is a fairly safe point of entry.
As for physical, I say buy as much as you can at these levels without borrowing, without margin, without leverage and at your leisure. Be in no rush. Eventually you will be happy you did.
Jmvho.
This is a dull and inactive thread. All the excitement has been bled out of the PM trade. So, who's left?
"Money is transferred from the impatient to the patient."
My understanding is that 'respected analysts' in the financial community feel that miners are currently priced on the assumption that gold will not fall further - ie, 'respected analysts' expect that, if demand continues to be high, but price continues to be low, the miners' share prices will drop, presumably because they'll be producing at a loss until they go bankrupt. But hey what can ya do? There's a huge demand - these guys can't just stop producing, but the price keeps dropping so even though they have to produce they just can't make a buck.
Too bad that same dynamic doesn't work in oil - eg, we need a fucking TON of oil but don't want to pay more than 20 bucks a barrel, so the oil companies are just going to have to take it on the fucking chin.
Frack Gold!
Have two years of stored food. Better yet, fill your spare room with good whiskey in glass bottles ( lasts longer with no evaporation ) Talk about a killer barter good! Who wants to bet I can trade a fifth of good whiskey for some fine puzzy? Do not forget condoms either.
Down arrow me you freaking gold zombies :-)
When is Gold heading to $50k+ an ounce again??
I'm still waiting...
Bernanke sentenced Gold and Silver to a Federal Pound Me in the Ass Prison. When the Paper Ponzi scheme collapses he will most likely share the same fate as the warden in Shawshank. The last thing that will go through his head, other than the bullet, is to wonder how the hell Gold and Silver ever got the best of him.
How many of those last 20 years were the CBs naked shorting metals against their outright purchases of index futures?
Gold is an insurance policy .... I hope the US Dollar holds up , but china and russia want to smash it down....I hope they do not...
If everyone knows that demand increases in the fall, how is this good for the future market price of gold? Astute investors would have bought ahead of this known event, thus eliminating any 'surprise' gains from something that apparently happens annually. The gold price is stuck right now and even wars, ebola, Russian/Chinese buying, and the plague of Obama and the Fed can't move it. Don't know what can.