• Capitalist Exploits
    09/20/2014 - 11:12
    There is no perfect system or place on our blue planet, so spare me your pious lectures about poverty in the 3rd world until, say, you've fixed your own f***ing Detroit!
  • Marc To Market
    09/20/2014 - 17:02
    The world may be a big conspiracy and civilization as we know it may end soon, but if you care what the dollar may do next week, take a look at this post.

Goldman's Special Purpose Tentacle Revealed In Europe's Latest Bank Failure

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The day that Banco Espirito Santo finally crashed and was liquidated nationalized under the weight of its countless criminal "inside the family" fund transfers, money losing loans, and off balance sheet activities, we pointed out to something amusing: the Goldman trail. Because not only was it revealed that in mid-July, two weeks before the Portuguese bank conglomerate failed, Goldman had invested several hundred million into the broken business, but that all through 2014, Goldman had done its best to drag the muppets down with it.

Recall from January 14, 2014 where Goldman said:

Buy BES: Winner at home, recovering abroad

 

In our view, BES is (1) optimally positioned to gain from Portugal’s banking market evolution and (2) likely to benefit from improving margins in Angola. With the stock trading at a 29% discount to peers’ 2015E P/TBV and with 28% upside to our 12m target price of €1.55, we upgrade BES to Buy.

 

* * *

 

Positioning: Looking beyond the crisis – BES best placed

 

Resilience to asset quality deterioration determined banks’ ability to withstand the effects of the economic and financial crisis. Those effects, however, have their cause in macroeconomic imbalances that led Portugal to ask for financial assistance from the EU/IMF. Addressing those causes will determine the future shape of the Portuguese banking market and the relative positioning of the banks. In this context, we develop a theoretical (and severe) scenario to assess relative positioning in a deleveraging economy: under this scenario, we estimate that Portuguese banks would need to delever by a further €35 bn domestic loans (or 15%) by 2020 to partially reverse the imbalances that contributed to the crisis. This is a top-end assumption and depends heavily on the country’s future macroeconomic performance. In this negative scenario, we show that BES would be best positioned to gain from a “race to the bottom”. Our estimate is harsh, but we still believe that it is a good proxy for the underlying trends in the lending market. In this context, even under more benign scenarios, BES is best placed.

Goldman had BES at a Buy until, well, just before the default.

The crashing stock price rose briefly on July 23 after it was revealed that such "deep value investors" as Baupost and quant algos as D.E.Shaw, but most importantly, Goldman, had become substantial holders of the BES common, with Goldman controlling just under 3% of the equity. Surely if anyone would have done their due diligence it would be Seth Clarman, David Shaw and the Squid. Well, ten days later it became abundantly clear that not only had nobody done any homework, but that the investors were merely piggybacking on each other, hoping that the "other guy" had actually analyzed the situation.

But while Baupost and DE Shaw, hedge funds which have deep-distrssed investing pockets, are logical buyers of a pre-bankruptcy stock and can assess the risks of a full wipe-out, why did Goldman feel compelled to chase a falling knife?

As Bloomberg reported on July 23, Goldman Sachs said today that it “entered into positions in Banco Espirito Santo by virtue of its facilitation of client transactions,” according to an e-mail sent to Bloomberg News. "This purchase passes on some security to the market and can open the door for other institutional investors," said Juan Dieste, a trader at Orey iTrade in Lisbon.

Turns out as usual there was much more to the story, and - not unexpectedly - the squid had its tentacles all over Europe's latest bank failure.

As the WSJ reported this morning, in addition to all the previously documented tentacles, Goldman had one more money-sucking contingency when it comes to the heretofore Portuguese cookie jar: it turns out that "through a Luxembourg financing vehicle created by Goldman, Banco Espírito Santo received $835 million in July, according to a prospectus reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, a time when it was nearly impossible for the troubled lender to borrow directly in the capital markets... The transaction with Goldman is the latest instance of a Wall Street firm helping finance the Espírito Santo empire via off-balance-sheet vehicles before its demise. Portuguese regulators, for example, are investigating special-purpose vehicles, administered by Credit Suisse Group AG, that bought debt from Espírito Santo companies, the Journal reported last month."

So what: just another insolvent Europen bank funding itself entirely off the books with the help of the world's most opportunistic banks (one wonders how many trillions in such SPVs are currently floating around Europe funding the banking sector's €1+ trillion non-performing loan deficiencies, but that is a topic for another day). But unlike the "plain vanilla" Spivs of the first credit bubble, the complexity of this one was truly impressive:

At least some of that money was earmarked for an unusual destination: helping finance a refinery-construction project that a troubled Chinese company was running for Venezuela's state oil company. That oil company was a major creditor of companies in the Espírito Santo group. The previously unreported Goldman deal offered a fleeting respite for Portugal's second-largest bank, which was struggling with a cash crunch and a month later was bailed out and broken up by the Portuguese central bank.

 

The latest twist in the Espírito Santo saga started last September, when Venezuela's state oil company, PDVSA Petroleo SA, known as PDVSA, awarded an $834 million contract to a Chinese company named Wison Engineering Services Co.

 

The contract, awarded just days after Chinese police detained Wison's controlling shareholder in an oil-industry corruption crackdown, was to help build an oil refinery in Puerto la Cruz on Venezuela's coast. It marked the biggest such contract in Latin America for a Chinese company and a rare international foray for Wison.

 

Banco Espírito Santo at the time had a substantial presence in Venezuela. It had opened a Caracas branch in January 2012, part of an ambitious global growth strategy, and served as banker to the Venezuelan government and PdVSA on multiple projects. A Banco Espírito Santo marketing presentation this year touted Venezuela as "an important market," noting the large community of Portuguese expatriates there.

 

PDVSA, meanwhile, held significant sums of Espírito Santo debt, making it one of the family-owned conglomerate's largest creditors, according to a person familiar with the relationship.

So a Chinese criminal entity investing in Venezuela, using money from a soon to be insolvent Portuguese bank that wouldn't be around in one year's time. And who ties it all together? Why the bank that was telling its clients to invest in the insolvent Portuguese bank all along.

Then things accelerated: in May, Banco Espírito Santo approached Goldman to set up a special-purpose vehicle named Oak Finance Luxembourg SA. Banco Espírito Santo wanted to use the vehicle to raise dollar-denominated funding, which was growing scarce due to the bank's financial troubles, according to the person familiar with the relationship.

On July 3, locked out of bond markets and bleeding cash, Banco Espírito Santo borrowed $835 million from Oak Finance, according to the prospectus. The borrowed funds were for purposes including trade financing for Wison Engineering on PDVSA's Deep Conversion Project, according to the loan agreement included in the Oak Finance prospectus.

The problem is that at just about that time, a Chinese crackdown on Wison's controlling shareholder Hua Bangsong, about to be arrested on bribery charges, meant that the key player was about to drop out of the picture. Somewhat symmetrically, Wison announced on July 21 that the investigation casts doubt on its ability to stay in business, noting last week that it is in default on some of its bank obligations.

By this time, however, Goldman was furiously spinning the damage control machine, seeking to offload as much risk as possible knowing that the end is insight.

The same day that Banco Espírito Santo tapped the Oak Finance loan, Oak Finance issued $785 million of debt with annual interest rates of up to 3.5%. Goldman, which served as arranger and dealer for the transaction, bought the debt and hoped to sell it at a profit to outside investors.

What Goldman did not anticipate is how quickly the situation would spin out of control: "At first, the arrangement appeared lucrative for Goldman. It stood to collect fees from Oak Finance that "will be materially higher than the fees and/or commissions typically charged in vanilla bond transactions," according to the prospectus. But Banco Espírito Santo's financial difficulties made it hard for Goldman to attract buyers. During July, customers and creditors of the Portuguese lender yanked €3.35 billion ($4.4 billion) of funds, leaving the bank with "a severe liquidity shortfall," according to Portugal's central bank. The bank's shares plunged 80% before its Aug. 3 bailout.

So what did Goldman do to make it seem it was in control? It invested a token amount in the BES equity for one simple reason:  to offload as much of its SPV exposure to clueless invesotrs, as fast as possible. Because after all, why would Goldman be buying a chunk of the bank if it didn't expect it to survive.

Well, it didn't, but the whole point was to give just this impression, and in the fog of confusion, to dump as much of the 3.5% yielding paper to yield starved managers experiencing career risk and "Fear Of Missing Out", and glutted with other people's money.

Sadly it failed, and this time around Goldman's double down bluff blew up in its face, with the 200 West bank suffering losses on both its SPV exposure and its equity investment. To be sure, not total losses:

Goldman eventually sold a slug of the Oak Finance debt, at a loss, to hedge funds that specialize in distressed debt, according to a person familiar with the market activity. Goldman is still holding some of the debt, which has lost value, this person said.

 

The fate of the Oak Finance debt is unclear. The sole collateral on the bonds is Oak Finance's $835 million loan to Banco Espírito Santo. Despite the bank's collapse, that loan is supposed to be repaid. It was among the liabilities transferred to Novo Banco, the "good bank" that Portugal carved out of Banco Espírito Santo when it was bailed out in August, according to Moody's Investors Service.

Perhaps the take home message here is that in the New Normal, a truly distressed security yields a tiny 3.5%.

Or maybe, the lessons is that if Goldman is involved, someone will always end up suffering massive losses.

No matter what the lesson may be, if there even is one, here is what years of "macroprudential policies" have yielded:

  • Off balance sheet vehicles?  Check
  • Conflicted bank "research" recommending muppets buy stock while soliciting banking fees from same stock?  Check
  • Hoping to sell debt on to muppets?  Check
  • Chinese corruption? Check
  • State bailout of failed bank? Check

And that ladies and gentlemen, is precisely how the New differs from the Old Normal. Oh wait...

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Mon, 09/01/2014 - 15:33 | 5168529 y3maxx
y3maxx's picture

...F*ck Goldman, and F*ck Golfer in Chief

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 15:36 | 5168542 rehypothecator
rehypothecator's picture

What remains unexplained is how The Vampire Squid still has any clients at all.  

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 15:40 | 5168564 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

Those are not clients, those are muppets.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 16:38 | 5168714 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Goldman eventually sold a slug of the Oak Finance debt, at a loss, to hedge funds that specialize in distressed debt


The fed?

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 17:36 | 5168910 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

Hope you're wrong. I'm afraid you're right.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 18:28 | 5169105 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

A Bang(on)song for Goldman Sachs:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yge311sFhC8

 

Jump, You Fuckers.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 20:54 | 5169481 Dugald
Dugald's picture

 

What remains unexplained is how The Vampire Squid still has any clients at all.

Make allowance for the vast army of fuckwits in the speculative arena....

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 15:37 | 5168536 knukles
knukles's picture

Thank you Tyler.  I needed a reminder of the stark reality of the Wizard's machinations and finagling behind the curtains.  Ah, but loaning to loan the borrower more loans so as to repay the loans from the other one and same borrower in the guise of another same borrowers different borrowings, to borrow a phrase form an astute borrower of borrowed phraseology.

it's no wonder why the CBs of the world have proactively unleashed a veritable tsunami of free liquidity across the globe...

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 17:15 | 5168831 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Anyone with their eyes open HAS to know that the whole financial system makes smoke and mirrors look good, and the level of corruption in banking makes the Mob look like sunday-school teachers.

Paper promises backed by paper promises backed by paper promises backed by paper promises.............

Backed by assets rehypothecated 20, 30, 40 times.

It's time for banksters 'liquidity, to be flowing in the gutters.

 

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 15:35 | 5168541 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Any Oakmark in that "oak"?

Know there was a lot of brouhaha and umbrage when they set up their distressed debt fund a few years back.

I mean seriously...."Howard Marks is a dope"? These folks are becoming the same type of clueless all the time now.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 15:42 | 5168562 BadKiTTy
BadKiTTy's picture

I dont think anything shocks me anymore.  It is like looking constantly at death and destruction - in the end it just becomes 'what it is'.

What would shock me would be; prison for the top financial criminals, stock prices based on fundamentals, house prices based on growth in wages, politicians making decisions which are good for the people (and off the corporate payroll), news organisations reporting news instead of state PR.....

Not in my lifetime.... 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 15:46 | 5168575 OC Sure
OC Sure's picture

Macroprudential policies "required" because of microrecklessness. If microprudential, no macroprudential necessary. 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 15:58 | 5168613 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

I never realized that doing god's work would create so many conflicts of interest.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 16:05 | 5168624 schatzi
schatzi's picture

 

The most glaring issue in this good article are the 3.5%.

 

It underlines the fundamental flaw of trying to kickstart an economy by destroying the interest rate.

The interest rate is the central key to the financial markets. It represents the cost of risk - or reward for risk via an aggregate valuation by all market participants. It therefore is the only reliable gatekeeper, or controller of prudent financial activity. You fuck with that and you WILL have mayhem - sooner than later.

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 16:08 | 5168634 gmak
gmak's picture

Couldn't have happened to a nicer squid.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 17:16 | 5168842 logicalman
logicalman's picture

You don't think the Squid actually lost anything, do you?

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 16:23 | 5168655 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

"Banco Espirito Santo" = "Bank Of The Holy Spirit"

 

Goldman: Not only "Doing God's Work", but "Doing God's Banking" as well... and screwing Him in the process.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 17:13 | 5168828 Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

It's not nice too screw the Almightly,just ask Adam and Eve.....

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 17:17 | 5168845 logicalman
logicalman's picture

I thought they screwed each other, or else there'd be no one around.

If you believe the fairy-story that is.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 16:19 | 5168672 CPL
CPL's picture

Goldman Sachs.

<UnLUckY Seven Times!>

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 16:23 | 5168687 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Everyone’s favourite tentacled monster.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 16:44 | 5168699 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Thru Divine Revelation -

 I hereby dedicate St. Muppet to be the patron saint of Goldman clients.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 18:28 | 5169103 knukles
knukles's picture

"St. Muppet"
That's serious funny

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 16:40 | 5168719 laidbear
laidbear's picture

Why would even 1 investor buy 1 of these bonds at 3.5?  They can't be so starved for yield they would invest in this.  Now I'm starting to think they ARE that stupid.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 17:37 | 5168921 BlindMonkey
BlindMonkey's picture

One word: Negative Deposit Interest

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 16:03 | 5176977 Kprime
Kprime's picture

you must be from the Federal Reserve, if you think that is one word.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 16:40 | 5168721 anonnn
anonnn's picture

Just another fraud; another Improvised Accounting Device.

The IAD is just another bypass of justice.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 17:02 | 5168795 LibertarianMenace
LibertarianMenace's picture

Privatise the note issue while restricting the Primary Stealers to participate using only their FRNs. These games, along with the Stealers, would cease to exist. Now that would be doing the Lord's work.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 17:10 | 5168818 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

A lying cheater cheats the other lying cheater? Time to send out the nail guns or shitgums. Is there any bank that is not built on sand with the tide coming in?

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 17:12 | 5168826 shanearthur
shanearthur's picture

I can't help but read this story and compare such chaos to rioters during a riot. People do crazy sh!t during riots because they know the system's broken down. These financial titans appears to know the riot is near so f#ck it, might as well start acting crazy and get mine while I can.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 18:25 | 5169089 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Goldman Nutsacks strikes again!!!

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 18:28 | 5169100 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Three signs of real trouble in your mail:

  1. A delinquency notice for $50,000 in back taxes and penalties from the IRS.
  2. A dead fish from a Mafia hit man.
  3. A “Thank You” note from Lloyd Blankfein.
Mon, 09/01/2014 - 19:43 | 5169310 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

Should read :

1.Chinese Criminal Petroleum mafia,CHECK.

2.Anything to do with Venezuela NOWADAYS,CHECK.

3.Anything to do with Goldman Sachs,CHECK.

What gripes me is 40 years ago people would shaking their heads at this stuff.Not now though....

You can't make this shit up....

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 19:45 | 5169313 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

Makes a nice break from all the Gaza shit and the Ukraine...

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 19:53 | 5169335 fibonacci's claus
fibonacci&#039;s claus's picture

basal III bonds.   BUY BUY BUY. 

Tue, 09/02/2014 - 01:41 | 5170172 hedgiex
hedgiex's picture

Good investigation. Not a surprise. Just the beginning of cannabilism among the top 1%. Newton Law of Modern Finance has to prevail where the apex has to be 01.% when the preys in the 99% are diminishing.

 

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 16:01 | 5176968 Kprime
Kprime's picture

Willie Sutton.

Tue, 09/02/2014 - 08:51 | 5170561 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Again the authorities are acting primarily to prop up governments as well as the economy by saving the financial system. It is important to remember these authorities are politicians and bureaucrats that want increased power and influence, and guess what, they may have hit the jackpot.

Those in power have joined with the banks to create the "Financial-Political Complex" that promotes the current financial policy and supports banks that are "to big to fail". More on this unholy union in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-financial-political-complex.h...

Tue, 09/02/2014 - 09:06 | 5170600 damicol
damicol's picture

In doing gods work the only activity that I haven't heard anything about the squid being involved in is fucking little boys. I'm sure to hear that they didn't miss this important aspect of gods work in due course perhaps catholic news will run a story 

 

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