Key Events In The Coming Week

The US may be closed on Monday, but after a summer lull that has seen trading volumes plunge to CYNKian lows, activity is set to come back with a bang (if only for the sake of banks' flow desk revenue) with both a key ECB decision due later this week, as well as the August Nonfarm Payrolls print set for Friday. Among the other events, in the US we have the ISM manufacturing on Tuesday, with markets expecting a broadly unchanged reading of 57.0 for August although prices paid are expecting to decline modestly. Then it is ADP on Thursday (a day later than usual) ahead of Payrolls Friday. The Payrolls print is again one of those "most important ever" number since it comes ahead of the the September 16-17 FOMC meeting and on the heels of the moderation of several key data series (retail sales, personal consumption, inflation). Consensus expects a +225K number and this time it is unclear if a big miss will be great news for stocks or finally bad, as 5 years into ZIRP the US economy should be roaring on all cylinders and not sputtering every other month invoking "hopes" of even more central bank intervention.

Goldman lays out full preview of this week's events:

Monday, September 1

Events: US Labor Day holiday (US markets closed).

• Germany | GDP SA QoQ (2Q F): Consensus -0.20%, previous -0.20% (0.80% yoy, NSA)
• DMs | PMI Manufacturing: Euro area (consensus 50.8, previous 50.8), Denmark (previous 50.7), France (previous 46.5), Germany (previous 52), Italy (previous 51.9), Norway (previous 50.6), Spain (previous 53.9), Sweden (previous 55.2), Switzerland (previous 54.3), United Kingdom (consensus 55.2, previous 55.4), Japan (previous 52.4)
• EMs | PMI Manufacturing: China (GS 51.7, consensus 51.2, previous 51.7), China HSBC (consensus 50.3, previous 50.3), Hungary (previous 56.7), India (previous 53), Indonesia (previous 52.7), South Korea (previous 49.3), Taiwan (previous 55.8), Czech Republic (previous 56.5), Hungary (previous 56.7), Poland (consensus 48.9, previous 49.4), Russia (previous 51), South Africa (previous 45.9), Turkey (previous 48.5), Brazil (previous 49.1), Mexico (previous 51.5)
• Indonesia | CPI YoY (Aug): GS 4.00%, consensus 4.15% (0.30% mom), previous 4.53% (0.93% yoy)
• Thailand | CPI NSA MoM (Aug): Consensus 0.05% (2.25% yoy), previous -0.08% (2.16% yoy)
• Chile | Minutes from MP Decision
• Peru | CPI MoM (Aug): GS 0.20% (3.00% yoy), consensus 0.30% (3.10% yoy), previous 0.43% (3.33%)
• Also interesting: [DM] United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals and Money Supply; Japan Capital Spending and Vehicle Sales; Australia TD Securities Inflation, Business Indicators, RPData House Prices, Commodity Index, TD Securities Inflation and AiG Perf of Mfg Index; New Zealand Overseas Trade Indexes [EM] China Property Prices; Indonesia Consumer Confidence; Trade Balance in Indonesia, South Korea and Brazil; Argentina Tax Collection; Mexico Remittances and IMEF Manufacturing Index.

Tuesday, September 2

Events: Speech by ECB’s Knot and Mexico’s President Nieto (State of the Nation).

• United States | [MAP 5] ISM Manufacturing (Aug): GS 57.0, consensus 57.0, previous 57.1
• Switzerland | GDP QoQ (2Q): Consensus 0.50% (1.80% yoy), previous 0.50% (2.00% yoy)
• Australia | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (cash rate 2.50%, in line with consensus). Markets will be focused on how the RBA has interpreted key developments since the lengthy parliamentary testimony on 20 August. In particular, we will be looking for any weakening in the RBA’s resolve given further material falls in the iron ore price, resilience in the AUD, and the weak read-through of recent partial data for 2Q2014 GDP.
• DMs | PMI: Canada (previous 54.3), UK (61.4, previous 62.4); Singapore (previous 51.5)
• Hong Kong | HSBC Hong Kong PMI (Aug): Previous 50.4
• South Korea | CPI YoY (Aug): GS 1.50%, consensus 1.60% (0.30% mom), previous 1.60% (0.10% mom)
• Brazil | [MAP 4] Industrial Production YoY (Jul): GS (0.50% mom sa), previous -6.90% (-1.40% mom)
• Also interesting: [DM] US Construction Spending; Euro area PPI; Spain Unemployment; Sweden CA; Japan Total Cash Wages, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending and Monetary Base; Australia CA and Building Approvals; New Zealand Commodity Price Index [EM] Hungary Trade Balance; Romania PPI and Retail Sales; Colombia Exports.

Wednesday, September 3

Events: Speeches by ECB’s Lautenschlaeger and RBA’s Stevens, US Federal Reserve Beige Book.

• United States | Factory Orders (Jul): GS 12.6%, consensus 11.00%, previous 1.10%
• Canada | MP Decision
• Euro area | [MAP 5] GDP SA QoQ (2Q P): Consensus 0.00%, previous 0.00% (0.70% yoy)
• Australia | [MAP 5] GDP SA QoQ (2Q): GS 0.00%, consensus 0.30% (3.00% yoy), previous 1.10% (3.50% yoy)
• DMs | PMI (Services): Euro area (previous 53.5), France (previous 51.1), Germany (previous 56.4), Italy (previous 52.8), Spain (previous 56.2), Sweden (previous 60.1), United Kingdom (consensus 58.2, previous 59.1), Japan (previous 50.4)
• DMs | PMI (Composite): Euro area (previous 52.8), France (previous 50), Germany (previous 54.9), Italy (previous 53.1), Spain (previous 55.7), United Kingdom (previous 58.8), Japan (previous 50.2)
• EMs | PMI (Services): China (previous 50), India (previous 52.2), Russia (previous 49.7), Brazil (previous 50.2)
• EMs | PMI (Composite): China (previous 51.6), India (previous 53), Russia (previous 51.3), South Africa (previous 46.4), Brazil (previous 49.3)
• Hungary | [MAP 5] GDP NSA YoY (2Q F): Previous 3.90% (0.80% qoq)
• Poland | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (base rate at 2.50%, in line with consensus) and unchanged since the easing cycle ended in July 2013. Though in line with consensus, this is more hawkish than the forwards, which are pricing in a cut of roughly 25bp next week. Although macro conditions could justify cuts, we think the MPC is not yet convinced that the Polish economy would benefit from easing.
• Romania | GDP QoQ (2Q P): Previous -1.00% (1.20% yoy)
• Turkey | CPI YoY (Aug): GS 9.00%, consensus 9.40% (0.00% mom), previous 9.32% (0.45% mom)
• Brazil | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (Selic rate at 11.00%, in line with consensus) and for the Copom to reiterate a broadly neutral bias going forward given the still challenging inflation dynamics despite a weak growth environment.
• Also interesting: [DM] US MBA Mortgage Applications, ISM New York and Vehicle Sales; Euro area Retail Sales; Japan Factory Orders and Vehicle Sales; Singapore Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A; New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Auction and Value of Building Work [EM] Hungary Retail Sales; Turkey PPI; Argentina Vehicle Sales.

Thursday, September 4

Events: Speech by ECB’s Draghi, ECB’s Paret, ECB’s Nuoy, BOJ’s Kuroda, Fed’s Powell, Fed’s Mester, and Fed’s Kocherlakota, NATO Summit.

• United States | [MAP 3] ADP Employment Change (Aug): GS 220K, consensus 225K, previous 218K
• United States | [MAP 2] Trade Balance (Jul): GS -$42.9B, consensus -$42.4B, previous -$41.5B
• United States | [MAP 1] Construction Spending MoM (Jul): GS 0.50%, consensus 0.80%, previous -1.80%
• United States | Unit Labor Costs (2Q F): Consensus 0.60%, previous 0.60%
• United States | Markit US Composite PMI (Aug F): Previous 58.8
• United States | Markit US Services PMI (Aug F): Previous 58.5
• Euro area | MP Decision
• Germany | Markit Germany Construction PMI (Aug): Previous 48.2
• Sweden | MP Decision
• United Kingdom | Bank of England Bank Rate: Consensus 0.50%, previous 0.50%
• United Kingdom | BOE Asset Purchase Target (Sep): Consensus 375B, previous 375B
• Japan | MP Decision: We expect the BOJ to maintain the current quantitative easing scheme at the BOJ policy meeting on September 3-4. We will be focusing on the BOJ’s economic assessment in the wake of July activity data, which were a major disappointment contrary to the BOJ’s expectation for recovery.
• South Korea | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (2Q F): Previous 3.60% (0.60% qoq)
• Also interesting: [DM] US Initial Jobless and Continuing Claims; Canada International Merchandise Trade; France Unemployment; Germany Factory Orders; Australia Trade Balance and Retail Sales; New Zealand House Prices [EM] Czech Retail Sales; Brazil Vehicle Production and Commodity Price Index; Colombia PPI.

Friday, September 5

• United States | [MAP 5] Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug): GS 240K, consensus 225K, previous 209K
• United States | [MAP 5] Unemployment Rate (Aug): GS 6.10%, consensus 6.10%, previous 6.20%
• United States | Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Aug): GS 0.20%, consensus 0.20%, previous 0.00% (2.00% yoy)
• Germany | Industrial Production SA MoM (Jul): Consensus 0.50%, previous 0.30% (-0.50% yoy)
• Sweden | Industrial Production MoM (Jul): Previous 1.00% (-1.10% yoy)
• Philippines | CPI NSA MoM (Aug): Previous 0.60% (4.90% yoy)
• Taiwan | CPI YoY (Aug): Consensus 1.80%, previous 1.75%
• Thailand | Mfg Production Index ISIC NSA YoY (Jul): Consensus -3.70%, previous -6.60%
• Hungary | [MAP 4] Industrial Production WDA YoY (Jul P): Previous 11.30% (5.70% mom)
• Ukraine | CPI MoM (Aug): Previous 0.40% (12.60% yoy)
• Brazil | IBGE Inflation IPCA MoM (Aug): GS 0.25% (6.51% yoy), consensus 0.23%, previous 0.01% (6.50% yoy)
• Chile | [MAP 5] Economic Activity YoY (Jul): GS 0.50%, previous (r) 1.10% (-0.80% mom)
• Colombia | CPI MoM (Aug): GS 0.10% (2.90% yoy), consensus 0.12% (2.93% yoy), previous 0.15% (2.89% yoy)
• Mexico | MP Decision: We expect rates on hold (overnight rate at 3.00%, in line with consensus) and the MPC to reiterate the broadly neutral bias going forward.
• Also interesting: [DM] Canada Unemployment; France Consumer Confidence; Japan Leading Indicator and Coincident Index [EM] Hong Kong Money Supply; Malaysia Trade Balance; Philippines Bank Lending; Thailand Capacity Utilization; Foreign Reserves in Hong Kong, Philippines and Taiwan; Hungary Real Wages; Nigeria Trade Balance; Romania Wage Statistics; Mexico Consumer Confidence.

Comments

[hairInTheSoup]

<- draghi announces (he had germany agree for) QE

<- draghi confirms there won't be QE in EU

[Rouge Trader]

Will he or will he not?

[Cthonic]

And in the political bullshit department, portions of the BoA settlement will go to ACORN-like groups.

http://www.judicialwatch.org/blog/2014/08/doj-give-leftist-groups-cut-b-...

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/082714-715046-holders-bank-of-a...

"According to the list provided by Justice, those groups include come of the most radical bank shakedown organizations in the country, including:

• La Raza, which pressures banks to expand their credit box to qualify more low-income Latino immigrants for home loans;

• National Community Reinvestment Coalition, Washington's most aggressive lobbyist for the disastrous Community Reinvestment Act;

• Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America, whose director calls himself a "bank terrorist;"

• Operation Hope, a South Central Los Angeles group that's pressuring banks to make "dignity mortgages" for deadbeats.

Worse, one group eligible for BofA slush funds is a spin-off of Acorn Housing's branch in New York.

It's now rebranded as Mutual Housing Association of New York, or MHANY. HUD lists MHANY's contact as Ismene Speliotis, who previously served as New York director of Acorn Housing."

[AdvancingTime]

Timing a market top is difficult. Last labor day I wrote the article below. It is appropriate because it is about money the main thing so many people trade their labor for. Again, I offer it up with some minor updates. Many people work hard for their money and even harder to save a bit of it but are lulled into complacency when it comes to protecting it.

One of the saddest thing to witness is someone who has worked so hard loose all their money when an investment turns south. This reminds me of the story about how many people describe going bankrupt, slowly at first then quickly at the end. This market has far exceeded the upside expectations of many bulls while the economy has languished and in many respects failed to regain all the ground lost since 2007. The question I put forth below is, are we reaching the turning point?

 http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/09/the-turning-point-may-be-soon-upo...