This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

The 'Wages-Fuel-Demand' Fallacy

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

In recent months talking heads, disappointed with the lack of economic recovery, have turned their attention to wages. If only wages could grow, they say, there would be more demand for goods and services: without wage growth, economies will continue to stagnate.

It amounts to a non-specific call to stimulate aggregate demand by continuing with or even accelerating the expansion of money supply. The thinking is the same as that behind Bernanke's monetary distribution by helicopter. Unfortunately for these wishful-thinkers the disciplines of the markets cannot be bypassed. If you give everyone more money without a balancing increase in the supply of goods, there is no surer way of stimulating price inflation, collapsing a currency's purchasing power and losing all control of interest rates.

The underlying error is to fail to understand that economising individuals make things in order to be able to buy things. That is the order of events, earn it first and spend it second. No amount of monetary shenanigans can change this basic fact. Instead, expanding the quantity of money will always end up devaluing the wealth and earning-power of ordinary people, the same people that are being encouraged to spend, and destroying genuine economic activity in the process.

This is the reason monetary stimulation never works, except for a short period if and when the public are fooled by the process. Businesses – owned and managed by ordinary people - are not fooled by it any more: they are buying in their equity instead of investing in new production because they know that investing in production doesn't earn a return. This is the logical response by businesses to the destruction of their customers' wealth through currency debasement.

Let me sum up currency debasement with an aphorism:

"You print some money to rob the wealth of ordinary people...

 

to give to the banks to lend to business...

 

to make their products...

 

for customers to buy with money devalued by printing."

It is as ridiculous a circular proposition as perpetual motion, yet central banks never seem to question it. Monetary stimulus fails with every credit cycle when the destruction of wealth is exposed by rising prices. But in this credit cycle the deception was so obvious to the general public that it failed from the outset.

The last five years have seen all beliefs in the manageability of aggregate demand comprehensively demolished by experience. The unfortunate result of this failure is that central bankers now see no alternative to maintaining things as they are, because the financial system has become horribly over-geared and probably wouldn't survive the rise in interest rates a genuine economic recovery entails anyway. Price inflation would almost certainly rise well above the 2% target forcing central banks to raise interest rates, throwing bonds and stocks into a severe bear market, and imperilling government finances. The financial system is simply too highly geared to survive a credit-driven recovery.

Japan, which has accelerated monetary debasement of the yen at an unprecedented rate, finds itself in this trap. If anything, the pace of its economic deterioration is increasing. The explanation is simple and confirms the obvious: monetary debasement impoverishes ordinary people. Far from boosting the economy it is rapidly driving us into a global slump.

The solution is not higher wages.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:05 | 5167483 Publicus
Publicus's picture

Wage is demand. No money no demand, it's as simple as that.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:13 | 5167497 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

right, because people with no wage don't need to eat.

good luck with that.

Go ahead, start outlawing gardens and water collection and watch shit get real overnight.  Several South American countries have tried this and quickly dropped the law. South America still sends a shitload of oil to American refineries, they are major exporters and by definition a creditor nation (energy currency is the only thing that matters now and will be the only thing that matters if the population continues to climb).  Going to be interesting when they decide to keep those resources for themselves.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:26 | 5167589 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

"The solution is not higher wages."

very zen.

saying what the solution is not.

not so easy is to say what the solution is.

the solution is not more printing.

the solution is not more warring.

the solution is not more working.

the solution is not more manufacturing.

the solution is not more international trade.

the solution is not more college education.

the solution is not more precious metal.

the solution is not more water.

the solution is not more interplanetary exploration.

the solution is not more faster computers.

the solution is not depopulation.

the solution is not more health insurance.

the solution is not more pensions.

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:33 | 5167614 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

That which cannot be sustained, won't be, period.  Regardless of what any single species "thinks" or "believes".

same as it ever was...

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:09 | 5167735 zaphod
zaphod's picture

I (and a growing number of people) spend what we need to live, not what we want. As a result every pay increase goes towards increasing savings and not blown on consumerism. 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:21 | 5167791 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

This is one of the main reasons TPTB always want to increase social spending and welfare. Welfare puts money directly into the hands of people who HAVE to immediately spend it; not just because they have immediate needs, but because if they save the money, they become ineligible for further benefits.

Give a responsible person money, and they're likely to save a portion of it. We can't have that...

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:58 | 5167949 Bighorn_100b
Bighorn_100b's picture

Doesn't the military follow that same logic?

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:08 | 5167981 balolalo
balolalo's picture

"not so easy is to say what the solution is."

Yes it is.   

THE SOLUTION IS LESS PEOPLE. LOTS LESS.  

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:13 | 5167998 Matt
Matt's picture

you first.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:40 | 5168350 GaitherJ
GaitherJ's picture

Leave the city or suburbs sometime and tell me there is a population problem. We don't have a population problem we have a city people problem. 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 21:30 | 5169592 Nick Jihad
Nick Jihad's picture

People often forget, that many of the miracles of the modern age, could not happen without a large population. Comptuter chips, optical networks, space satellites - all require a vast capital investment, which in turn depends on vast markets to sell those products into.

People think we could have these wonders, and also have a small population, but I dont' think so.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:44 | 5167890 Apply Force
Apply Force's picture

zaphod - hope you are not "saving" in green tickets or digits that show a balance on a screen.  Reality says tools, land, know-how and energy to make all of that work might be a "saving" - and reality might be a little closer than we'd like to imagine

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:35 | 5168326 PeeramidIdeologies
PeeramidIdeologies's picture

"Tools" is a broad term, but undoubtly one of the best investments one can make!

As for this article, pure bunk.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:48 | 5167906 therover
therover's picture

You ( and I ) as well as all others with that mindset, will be soon branded as traitors. 

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:14 | 5168243 Marco
Marco's picture

Of course almost all of that growing number of people depend on consumerism to get pay at all.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:36 | 5167630 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

"Wage is demand. No money no demand, it's as simple as that."

The EBT is demand.   No EBT, no demand.

And it all comes from the magic money tree.    Or the dwindling supply of workers feeding the 'entitled'.   One of those.    So it's all good.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:30 | 5168308 Marco
Marco's picture

There is no dwindling supply of workers, there is a dwindling need of workers ... part of that is outsourcing, but automation can not be discounted and will continue even if outsourcing does not. We've hit peak consumption, but we've not yet hit peak per worker productivity.

The problem is how to keep a society together without full employment (immigration and cultural differrences in fertility destroying our societies cohesiveness at the same time we are forced to tackle this problem doesn't help).

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 15:21 | 5168496 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

"There is no dwindling supply of workers, there is a dwindling need of workers .."

Ummmm...no.....

 

"http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ravi-balakrishnan-/us-labor-force-where-ha...

"It's not supposed to be this way. As the U.S. economy recovers, hirings increase and people are encouraged to look for jobs again. Instead, the ratio of the adult population with jobs, or looking for one -- what's called the labor force participation rate -- has been falling,..

This represents a 3 percentage point decline since the Great Recession and the lowest rate since 1978...."

Why work?   Barak's gots ya covered yo!

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 16:38 | 5168716 Marco
Marco's picture

Reality cares little for what it's supposed to be ... we have limited land, limited oil and a near infinite capacity for automation. That leads to different outcomes than what huffingtonpost (or libertarians) think is supposed to happen.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 23:10 | 5169911 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Meh, "The surface of a planet is NOT the correct place for an expanding, technological civilization." -- R.A. Wilson

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:13 | 5167753 orez65
orez65's picture

"...not so easy is to say what the solution is."

It is easy:

1. Honest money, gold or silver

2. Consume less than you produce = real capital

3. Invest real capital

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:37 | 5168336 Marco
Marco's picture

"2. Consume less than you produce = real capital"

Let all do this!

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 21:37 | 5169621 Nick Jihad
Nick Jihad's picture

Be assured, you already consume _far_ less than you produce. They're called "taxes".

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:25 | 5167780 rejected
rejected's picture

I would suggest the major part of the solution would be the elimination of debt based money and the debt it has created. Painful? Very,,, but no addiction is easy to throw off.

 

R

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:15 | 5168002 Matt
Matt's picture

You want to have politicians create units of credit at will?

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:20 | 5168267 TheGreatRecovery
TheGreatRecovery's picture

Depopulation is part of the solution.  College education is part of the solution.  Interplanetary exploration is part of the solution.  Working is part of the solution.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:57 | 5167699 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

Publicus says that Wage is demand. Publicus is making a statement of which he knows nothing. 

 

            Maverick

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:02 | 5167702 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Wages are what you earn for what you have produced. To be forced by law to may more for something that is worth less is stealing.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:03 | 5167715 jarana
jarana's picture

Wage is legal claim on produced good and services. No production, demand what the fuck you want. Simple too...

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:58 | 5168187 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Horseshit. No demand, and prices fall.

Tue, 09/02/2014 - 00:54 | 5170108 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

You miss the point...  the root cause of the problem isn't a lack of wages, therefore, increased wages won't fix a problem it didn't cause.

It is like saying an aspirin that eliminates a brain cancer headache is the solution to brain cancer.

No, you have to get rid of the cancer AND THE ELIMINATION OF THE HEADACHE WILL FOLLOW NATURALLY.

The cancer in society is a sociopathic Debt Money Monopoly tyrannical system implemented on top of a chumptocracy.

The chumps need to stop being chumps and then we can address Debt Money Tyrants.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:06 | 5167487 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

More demand you say?  There is already 7+ billion people in the world all competing for a better standard of living and all the energy and resources that make that possible.  There is plenty of demand for real shit.  As for all those useless fucking bullshit financial "products" and bullshit paper promises, not so much.

 

Fuck em.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:32 | 5168081 globozart
globozart's picture

First take the wealth by printing and then give some pennies back. Nice. No, brilliant.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:46 | 5168364 Marco
Marco's picture

When people have nothing to give in exchange which exceeds the production costs of what you're selling they don't provide demand. The labour of most of those 7+ billion people is worth very little.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 18:47 | 5169168 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"The labour of most of those 7+ billion people is worth very little." - doesn't mean that their existance consumes any less resources, that's the point...

"freedom" another word for nothing left to lose...

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:07 | 5167494 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

Gimme something I can use, like, a solution.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:08 | 5167499 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

define the problem first.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:22 | 5167573 espirit
espirit's picture

The problem is that fiat has upset the balance of natural selection by replacing sustainability, as I mentioned on another thread.

Nowhere to go but down, cause Mother Nature is gonna be pissed.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:34 | 5167622 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

You mean, like a system whereby there are real fucking consequences for bad behavior?

 

Gee, that reminds me, have any of Tim Geithner's "arsonists" gone bankrupt and to prison yet?

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:48 | 5167670 Unknown User
Unknown User's picture

The solution is simple. You all know it. Start building infrastructure. Where to get money? Open an infrastructure bank. Deposit zero interest T-Bills and create ten times that amount in zero interest money. Repeat until people are happy. Don’t forget to close the borders and raise tariffs on imports.  Off you go…

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:08 | 5167734 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

"define the problem first"

let's say the problem is that people don't like being hungry or cold or indebted, and that an increasing share of the population is beginning to dislike the two-step of fiat plus war

so the solution is as simple as it is obvious

teach people to take pride in being hungry and poor and homeless and indebted, and outlaw any further discussion of fiat and peace

that strategy has worked for generations and it is certainly our best chance for solving the problem, going forward

hugs,
the kissingers

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:18 | 5167772 Unknown User
Unknown User's picture

For the rest of us, the problem is private fractional reserve central banking that stagnate progress. We can’t take them on because of overwhelming ignorance of the masses. So maybe we can flank them with an infrastructure bank.  Banks are good.  Aren’t they?

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:42 | 5167973 Dr Hackenbush
Dr Hackenbush's picture

I believe the concept of 'state banks' approaches this concept.  in short, create state banks that act as 'mini' federal reserves, that lend at super low interest to local citizens.  If you can't beat them exploit the same rules, for the benefit of the 99%. 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:16 | 5168252 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Solution?  Stop the meddling!

Of course that's wishful thinking, as the very clowns that would have to bring about this reversal in policy are those who benefit most from the status quo.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 16:44 | 5168729 Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture

WRT overwhelming ignorance of the masses,

I read an article where the average IQ is actually lower than 100, includes Americans at 98.

It's really the overwhelming mass of ignorants.  I'm convinced most people are too stupid to understand these articles or these comments.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:28 | 5167816 espirit
espirit's picture

As LoP had formally stated, we must accept that finite resources are 'finite'.

What we cannot sustain must be obtained by other means, thus the creation of usury to obtain something for nothing.

When usury no longer works, resources must be obtained by force until said resources are no longer available.

You can hedge your bet this won't end pretty.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:40 | 5167874 Unknown User
Unknown User's picture

The idea of finite resources was invented by those who own resources.  The reality is that we have infinite resources because we have infinite imagination and therefore ability to create power and resources we need.  Start by building on what we already have, like the Liquid Fluoride Reactor that can produce cheap power and fuel. Most certainly don’t accept ideas that we can’t do this or that.

 

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:49 | 5167901 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

It's good to be optimistic, but, unfortunately, the laws of physics and Nature are what they are.  Quite simply, if you don't have resources, including energy resources, that can be consumed, then you won't actually be able to do shit.  That's why it is so important to invest your current resources wisely.  If bad behavior isn't being punished with real fucking consequences, chances are, resources are being mis-allocated and mal-invested.

There are many technical hurdles to those fusion reactors asshat, gee, maybe if we weren't buidling weapons we could figure that shit out.  Trust me, if those fusion reactors could be brought online tomorrow, there's a corporation out there that would.

Again, same as it ever was.  There will be winners and there will be losers...

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:14 | 5167987 Dr Hackenbush
Dr Hackenbush's picture

many 'laws of physics' state that we shouldn't even be here.  If we truly live in a 'closed loop' then something very imaginative happened, that filled the anthropic container.   

 

*that

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 16:48 | 5168742 Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture

It's amazing how pessimistic you all are about humanity's ability to do the impossible.

Electric light bulb, airplane, space travel, medicine, etc

We can communicate, we are communicating, globally instantaneously.  I could be in Tokyo and you could be in London, and the other reading this could be sitting in Moscow, Beijing, DC, LA, Buenos Aires, Bombay, etc...

Our limitations?  

The only thing science fiction about humanity are our limitations.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 18:25 | 5169091 Dr Hackenbush
Dr Hackenbush's picture

Well, my comment was intended as optimistic, and so were a few other commentators.  I'm one that believes that it's okay to point out problems, but only, if you have a viable solution to offer.  

That said: the difference between the optimist and the pessimist, is simply that the pessimist has more information.  The bigger task then becomes examining the veracity of that information.  Many great inventors were/are pessimist, only with solutions to offer.  

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 18:53 | 5169188 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"humanity's ability to do the impossible." --  I'd argue that sometimes a small collection of humans can do some amazing things, but only if they have the resources and time to do so.

 

To pretend that we live in a biosphere without consequence is just setting oneself up for failure.  the reason why most engineers and innovative people appear the way they do is because they ask why things DON'T WORK.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:30 | 5168302 Unknown User
Unknown User's picture

The LFTR is a type of a fission reactor that was built in the 60th.  We know how to build it.  Besides electricity, it can produce liquid fuels for cars and trucks out of the air.

 

http://youtu.be/uK367T7h6ZY

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:50 | 5168391 Marco
Marco's picture

What we don't know is if it can produce energy at below the cost of water based reactors in commercial use.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 16:45 | 5168734 Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture

Don't knock if you haven't tried it.

What if Edison gave up that easy?

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:49 | 5167911 espirit
espirit's picture

But don't you know that the 'infinite imagination' is being dumbed down by all recognition?

No doubt there are hidden gems that would enhance our survival, although Nature culls what it cannot sustain.

It's quite the quandry, no? 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:16 | 5168249 TheGreatRecovery
TheGreatRecovery's picture

Planet Earth is a finite resource.  Many native Americans understood this.  Many Conquistadors also understood this, which is why they left Spain, which had few resources and almost none for them, and went to the Americas, where they could conquer and take the resources already there.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:48 | 5168385 Marco
Marco's picture

Ahh cornucopians, always ready to push us to the brink a little faster.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:35 | 5167621 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Income inequality.  Go.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:21 | 5168020 Matt
Matt's picture

Globalization is the cure for income inequality. Eventually, 99% of the world's population will have approximately the same level of income.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 23:12 | 5169918 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The petri dish is finite in size.

Tue, 09/02/2014 - 00:58 | 5170113 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

The Debt Money Monopolists are skull f*ing the population of chumps who will, for the most part, defend the skull f*ing being inflicted upon them because they don't **want to** understand the system that oppresses them.

For example, the West invades the Ukraine via a coup and installs a Bankster as the head of the junta government and the chumps think Putin is invading the Ukraine.

I wouldn't believe it if I wasn't actually observing it.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:16 | 5167548 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

Real GNP contraction

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:22 | 5167571 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Real GNP growth requires increasing consumption of real resources.  Good luck with that in a closed system (like the earth's biosphere) with finite resources.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:25 | 5167580 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

How did I know that would be the answer. The solution then is to buy the means of production?

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:31 | 5167606 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Buy?  With What?  It's a fiat world now.

 

Capital and talent will go where they are respected, always have always will.  Some people will live, most will die.

same as it ever was...

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:28 | 5168060 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Still rollin with that water is wet routine?

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:05 | 5167726 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Eliminate the minimum wage, and let the people sell their labor for what they choose to.  

 

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:28 | 5168054 Matt
Matt's picture

Sounds like a great plan towards getting 99% of the population down to $1/day.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 16:15 | 5168656 Shigure
Shigure's picture

Will Work For Free

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SuGRgdJA_c

(2 hours 6 mins)

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:08 | 5167496 Boondocker
Boondocker's picture

So simple to understand but not if you have a phd....

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:09 | 5167500 Gromit
Gromit's picture

This was President Herbert Hoover's policy in the early 30s....

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:36 | 5167626 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Sort of, but the policy was really against his will.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:37 | 5167636 Gromit
Gromit's picture

Mellon didn't like it very much.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:10 | 5167511 intric8
intric8's picture

Raise wages? Why, so they can raise inflation along with it?

Oldest scam in the book.

Which state was it that recently raised minimum wage? I hear everyone is wishing that the law never passed. Staff got axed, benefits were cut and no Christmas parties.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:23 | 5167574 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Off-shoring is a major part of the problem.  Dissassociating productive incomes from the local economy.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:13 | 5167515 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

I was watching a documentary on the Vietnam war. The presence of the U.S. Military in South Vietnam distorted the market and pay. Someone working on the US base made x amount more than outside. So they drove up the prices of everything. Of course when the base left the economy collapsed. imo, this is a microcosm of what is happening in the US today with the Fed Res pumping up all asset prices, but when they exit the price fixing there is going to be a ruinous collapse.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:13 | 5167537 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

They (The Fed) has been price fixing for 100+ years.  What makes you think they will quit now?  do tell.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:26 | 5167586 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

what goes up must come down

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:32 | 5167609 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Right, care to be a little more specific?

Tue, 09/02/2014 - 01:06 | 5170119 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

The exponential debt bubble is nearing its peak ($500k loans to the unemployed was a big hint!) and the bust phase is where the Banksters turn all that fiat into real people's businesses, land, homes, farms, water departments, energy companies, roads, etc...  you get the idea.  If not, go back to the Great Depression and find out how many farmers lost thier land to the bankrupt banks - and that was just a beta test for what is about to go down.

Inequality: Why are the rich getting richer?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzCegQVljdY

Nicole Foss, World Financial Instability Dialogue Nelson New Zealand March 31st 2012
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvWPcSjde3s

[ Episode #75 // Positive Money ]
http://www.extraenvironmentalist.com/2014/03/10/episode-75-positive-mone...

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:10 | 5167518 fishwharf
fishwharf's picture

That may all be true, but I'd still like a raise.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:51 | 5167927 therover
therover's picture

Would you like a 5% raise or a 10% reduction in all costs across the board ? 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:31 | 5168077 Matt
Matt's picture

You have a plan to lower the cost of oil 10%, in real prices, not just nominal? Please share.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:13 | 5168238 TheGreatRecovery
TheGreatRecovery's picture

I have a plan.  First, solar energy.  Next, tax rebates to encourage insulation and other things that save on heating and air conditioning.  Third, smaller houses.  Fourth, fewer children.  All these things lessen demand.  The only way to decrease price is to decrease demand.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 18:42 | 5169150 Matt
Matt's picture

The first comprehensive study of full-life cycle EROEI for semiconductor solar power in sunny, hot dry Southern Spain determined a lifetime return of 2.45 units of energy for each 1 invested, assuming the panels last to average life expectency.

That means you have to use 10 years worth of energy today, to get 1 years worth of energy each year for the next 25 years, and that is under near optimal conditions.

Not saying impossible, but would need a huge solar power farm(s) in the southern deserts and grid upgrades to get that power to the rest of the market.

In order to decrease demand, you must decrease it worldwide. Otherwise, a reduction in consumption here just means more consumption in China.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:10 | 5167519 Jesse
Jesse's picture

This is an odd argument.   It equates higher wages with monetary stimulus.  And then makes its argument against monetary stimulus.

It doesn't take monetary stimulus to generate higher wages, not with corporate profit margins at record levels already.

I like Alasdair, but this is one of the oddest, most self-serving arguments I have read in some time.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:24 | 5167581 exi1ed0ne
exi1ed0ne's picture

 It amounts to a non-specific call to stimulate aggregate demand by continuing with or even accelerating the expansion of money supply.

I agree.  You don't need to print to increase wages, which this entire piece is based off of.  How are we suppose to service any debt if wages keep losing out to inflation?  We have been decreasing in real wages for decades in the race to level out to the global serf economy.

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:36 | 5167629 Jumbie
Jumbie's picture

You're not supposed to fully service debt with dollar wages. Debt exists to collect real Things from the debtor: gold, houses, land, children's lives...

Tue, 09/02/2014 - 01:09 | 5170127 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

When the oligarchs are siphoning off money from the real economy by the trillions, how can all of Main Street get a raise?

Inequality: Why are the rich getting richer?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzCegQVljdY

How to be a Crook
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oHbwdNcHbc

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:28 | 5167598 skipjack
skipjack's picture

Higher wages are only possible organically with higher productivity. Do we have that ? No. Corporate profit margins are high only due to offshoring and staff reductions, which are not actions geared toward increasing productivity.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:10 | 5167520 NoPension
NoPension's picture

There is a limit to the percentage of parasites the host can support.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:12 | 5167524 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

What we need is a good 5cent cigar!

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:26 | 5167584 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

Penny bubble gum would be great.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:15 | 5167538 Jumbie
Jumbie's picture

The minimum wage for management has recently been raised to 300x median. It seems not to have done much for increasing demand. Q.E.D.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:16 | 5167544 Jumbie
Jumbie's picture

Henry Ford really had no clue regarding wages, and bought into this whole fallacy.

The minimum wage for management has recently been raised to 300x median. It seems not to have done much for increasing demand. Q.E.D.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:25 | 5167578 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Exactly, and if you think management today is good at actually getting things done, I have another fairtale for you...

The capital and resouce mis-allocation and mal-investment continues.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:10 | 5168225 TheGreatRecovery
TheGreatRecovery's picture

Henry Ford had a turnover problem.  Building cars by doing the same few things all day long on an assembly line was so much more boring than hand-crafting cars, that he couldn't keep workers.  So he raised their wages.  Supply and demand.  Always, and everywhere, supply and demand.

Tue, 09/02/2014 - 10:11 | 5170857 Jumbie
Jumbie's picture

Hmm

Not sure if people got, or didn't get, <sarcasm>

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:17 | 5167553 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

A thriving economy that is growing has expanding productivity and wages that are declining in the monetary. However, lower monetary wages will purchase more goods and services.

Rising monetary wages, and prices,are evidence of the banksters' theft of the economy's product and labor via "printing."

The "rising wages" non-sense is just another bankster lie to justify their theft.

An American, not US subject.

 

"Save the world, guillotine a bankster."

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:29 | 5167600 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

correct.  The modern banker does not create anything of real value, yet he lives like a fucking king because of his compensation.

 

This is what fundamentally needs to change.  Useless fucking paper-pushers creating nothing of real value, yet being compensated better than the doctor, the engineer, the contractor, the farmer, etc. will eventually destroy the value of that paper as those of us who can engineer and build real shit seek compensation by other means as we reconize the accelatating destruction of our paper and our paper savings.

Fuck em, follow kchrisc's advice and let's start saving the real economy.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:19 | 5167556 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Screw wages. Yellen goin up my FAFSA.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:24 | 5167563 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Must be Labor Day, they'll be over it tomorrow. Don't need money, just credit.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:25 | 5167585 Batman11
Batman11's picture

Economies are much more efficient when a small elite take all the profits and stash them in tax havens.

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:29 | 5167599 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

If only $1.00 was worth what it was 100 years ago. Now I need $22 of them to match purchasing power for today's dollar. Oh yeah and three incomes. So, no demand for wage growth at all. This is what happens when fiat becomes worthless.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:30 | 5167604 Batman11
Batman11's picture

The last five years have seen all beliefs in the manageability of aggregate demand comprehensively demolished by experience.

 

2014 - 2008 = 6 years

 

You must work on wall street.

 

 


Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:37 | 5167610 Batman11
Batman11's picture

The monetary stimulus has been given to bankers to inflate asset prices.

Demand has not been stimulated at all.

Keynes was in favour of spending on infrastructure projects, to employ people and give them wages to increase demand.

Bankers just blow bubbles, which then burst and they lose it all (like 2008, 1929).

 

 

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:40 | 5167640 Batman11
Batman11's picture

The wall street half wits need the 1930s legislation that kept them properly restrained for seven decades.

 

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:00 | 5167705 Raoul_Luke
Raoul_Luke's picture

Then why didn't the WPA, the PwA, the CCC, the TVA, etc. etc. end the Great Depression?

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:00 | 5167941 Apply Force
Apply Force's picture

Perhaps to keep the "great depression" from turning into the "great revolution...?"  No intent to end the depression - just try and continue along.  Kicking the can to maintain BAU never goes out of style

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:38 | 5167637 RobM1981
RobM1981's picture

Freshman economics...

 

Demand is a function of price, income, and utility, BUT...

Price and income must be measured in REAL terms and not simply wages.  "Wealth" is a better descriptor than income.  As has been pointed out here again and again, we are approaching Confederate Dollars in terms of worth. 

Yellen knows this.  Obama doesn't - Obama is and always has been a high functioning dolt - but Yellen knows.  Bernanke knows and knew.  Paulson knows and knew.  Many people know this.

 

They just don't like it.  It doesn't fit with their model of "how to get and obtain power."

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:47 | 5167667 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

What is Macleod going on about?  He heard about supply side and he's trying to play the game but failing.  To a first approximation yes wages fuel demand, nobody denies that, but that doesn't mean you just raise them for no reason.

The problem is our entire cycle is broken due to globalism, raise wages in the US and the money all flows to China, where it stops.  God bless the Chinese for NOT spending it and causing inflation, it is basically their little (big!) gift to the US.  Inflation?  It's all disposable, they could buy Tennessee this year, Wyoming next year, or California if they agree to take over payments.  Our velocity of money is all hosed.  Our rationale for paying wages is hosed, just breathing deserves a middle-class wage, apparently, and being a bankster is worth 10,000 laborers.  If those banksters would just consume 10,000 times the toilet paper and toasters, that would be a good start.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:47 | 5167668 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

the bankster/gawbamant meme has always been inflationary

 

ever thought of a lower tax approach?  of course not - that affirms how useless gawbamant really is.

 

so tell me gawbamant, which pant leg do I put on first?

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:52 | 5167682 Batman11
Batman11's picture

I thought the US had cut taxes for the rich over an extended period of time.

Great for tax havens.

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:32 | 5168068 itstippy
itstippy's picture

The United States Government currently spends about 40% more than it takes in.  I'd like to pay less in taxes too, but I don't see how that would solve the imbalance.

There hasn't been a Federal Budget since the Clinton Administration.  Washington just quit doing the whole budget process because it's too hard and it's bad for getting re-elected.

Instead of a budget, Congress passes Continuing Spending Resolutions and the President signs them into law.  When an "unforeseen" expense comes up, like a $1T war or an $800B stimulus program or rolling out Obamacare, Congress passes an Emergency Funding Bill and the President signs it into law.

These spending measures, passed by Congress and signed by the President, authorize the U.S. Treasury to issue T Bills to cover the 40% gap between spending and revenues.  Somehow the fucktards in Washington have run up a $17T debt in this manner, with no end in sight.  

How, exactly, does cutting taxes solve this dillemma? 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:46 | 5168139 Matt
Matt's picture

It would hasten the collapse. As long as you guys take care of those spent fuel ponds, I say go for it.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:49 | 5167673 Batman11
Batman11's picture

Economies are much more efficient when a small elite take all the profits and stash them in tax havens.

I can't think how more money in workers hands and less in tax havens could stimulate the economy.


Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:49 | 5167675 PoliticalRefuge...
PoliticalRefugeefromCalif.'s picture

True economic vitality requires velocity and an efficient use of money (labor); with the government siphoning off close to fifty percent and growing and with no appreciable benefit to the producers, it's not a matter of if- but when the system collapses.

No system can prosper with a dead short on productivity the size of our federal government provides.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 11:57 | 5167694 Batman11
Batman11's picture

The elite are syphoning off a lot too, look at any graph of GDP vs real wages.

Money taken by the 1% and stuck in tax havens doesn't do much for the velocity of money, at least Governments spend it.

Governments can be voted out, the idiots of wall street can't.

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:06 | 5167731 silverer
silverer's picture

I agree.  One way to debase the currency is to render it ineffective by mismanagement.  When the government controls so much of it, and overspends for a resource or result, that will hurt people tied to a fixed income (I don't mean just retired folks, a person with a paycheck without any kind of decent raise in pay for five years qualifies).  In effect, your money is worth less because the distorted markets expect more if it with less REAL productivity results (or maybe none at all).  What did Solyndra do for y'all?  You have to pay for it, but what did you get for your money?  No results and no productivity is really just like inflation, isn't it?  But don't forget to add the interest.  Now it really stinks, yes?

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:17 | 5167768 Batman11
Batman11's picture

wall street nearly collapsed the system in 2008, no Government has ever come close.

Governments only operate at a national level, it takes multi-national banks to bring down the whole western financial system.

luckily Governments came to the rescue of the financial half wits. 

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:00 | 5167956 PoliticalRefuge...
PoliticalRefugeefromCalif.'s picture

Without a political harlot like Paulson intervening, the banks would have just had to eat their losses in 2008 and we would have probably suffered a sharp but short recession.

To believe that the global central banking system is not symbiotic with the Federal Government and as such the critical link to assuring taxpayers liability for their crimes is not to understand the relationship they share.

..as a result, we now face an even larger economic calamity in the future entirely due to our government stepping in.

 

BTW.. I didn't down vote you.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:28 | 5168059 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

And how could wall st. do all this without full protection and cooperation of government?

It's all a racket, sanctioned by political power.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:57 | 5168417 Batman11
Batman11's picture

Not popular, but merely a statement of the facts.

Though looking at the comments  .....  Wall street does select US politicians via campaign contributions.

 

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:25 | 5167806 barre-de-rire
barre-de-rire's picture

my solution is " fuck you, fuck your system, GTFO of my grass of i fucking kill you "

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:25 | 5167808 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It's called the globization of labor. Labor is cheaper where the cost of living is less. Global competition causes lower wages and more profits. The constant sending of jobs overseas causes large amounts of job applicants applying for less pay.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 12:52 | 5167931 Debugas
Debugas's picture

"If you give everyone more money without a balancing increase in the supply of goods"...

 

The thing is nowadays we can increase supply rather easily

the only thing limiting supply is lack of payable demand

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:02 | 5167966 blindman
blindman's picture

the only solution to a nightmare is to awaken from the dream.
to recognize the illusion for its intrinsic value or
lack of value. that is a personal and emotional thing
but it is not something that will be remedied by any
collective solution.
people work for bank credit and call it wages, then
complain that the bankers credit lacks value or is
insufficient in quantity.
.
the problem is that the illusion of money with no
knowable qualitative standards has been accepted
in the first place. everything derived from this
will have that mark on it and leave the people in
the darkness, just where the banksters want them.
notice the choking quantities being discussed, as
if astronomical quantities could replace, when stolen
by the government and corporate criminals, somehow,
the lack of qualitative foundation, entirely seduced
by the dream and lust for more "money".
.
i agree, citing increased wages as no solution to the
"problem", the author has conflated wages for work with
stealing by the central bankers and all that supports
them in their theft. one might wonder why the initial
scheme and theft of money as debt into existence on such
a grand and destabilizing scale by such an elite and criminal
class is not highlighted as the source of the problem?
.
obviously, when there is so much debt around how can anyone
afford to pay a decent wage for work and services, yet that
same debt is someones asset and it appears it is only good
as collateral to create more debt money, leaving the people
with no economy, only a derivative or virtual nightmare?
.
jubilee every so often and flushing of malinvestments
is essential. the alternative leaves the people in perpetual
ghettos and in darkness of the madmen and their estates of
unreality turned violent . zombies and hungry ghosts in the
streets, planning wars and take downs of the functioning
to leverage the past success of others into future destruction
and debt for the sake of more debt money for their own
empty account, and everyone a soldier or sniper in training,
cradle to grave.
.
4%, 50 years spanish bonds, talk about dreams and deep
markets.
.
TUESDAY, AUGUST 26, 2014

Watershed press conference by top Novorussian officials (MUST SEE!)
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/08/watershed-press-conference-by-...
.
monopolistic debt money men/(militarized system) will destroy
the world to steal it on the cheap, there the international values
of man in 2014, they made their bed to lie in.
.
The West, the greatest cause of War in human history, stands stripped of all Legitimacy — Paul Craig Roberts
August 30, 2014
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/08/30/west-greatest-cause-war-human...
.
all for astronomically fake money. beware the dominant culture
and generation of deluded killer clowns pimping homicide at a distance
as a career path for the youth. what was that statistic?
suicides as the cause of death has surpassed died in combat for
armed forces personnel in amerika.
it is about the fed money friend, good night and good luck.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:08 | 5168215 TheGreatRecovery
TheGreatRecovery's picture

Precisely.  "the author has conflated wages for work with stealing by the central bankers and all that supports them in their theft."

Labor is the gnats.  The owners of the central banks are the camel.  Jesus didn't throw the working people out of the Temple.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:20 | 5168274 besnook
besnook's picture

lol. the only thing worse than a utopian philosopher is one who believes in his utopia. you have what you get and you get what you got. the most enduring and totally forgotten message of all the early philosophers from the zorastrians, through the hindu, sikhs and buddhists, taoists, confuscian and all the rest of the meaning of life philosophies to the abrahamics and all the new philosophers from nietzsche to thoreau is that the nature of man has never changed and will never change except through a critical mass of local philosophy that essentially comes to the same conclusion in whatever didactic it is reasoned through. be good, do good, think good. it is as good as it gets. the great philosophical revelation is that your behavior is the root of the reality writ large globally. at the same time, there is nothing you can do about it except to make your life a testament to goodness.

as the abrahamics so dramatically remind you, you are going to fail at being good because you are human and humans are 100% prone to moral, ethical, and legal errors in judgement. .... all the time. globalize that behavior and you see, like every playground, there are a coupla assholes and coupla people who want to run the whole show. sometimes there is kinetic action. sometimes the kinetic action gets out of control.if you thinkany of that dynamic will ever change then i want some of that mescaline.

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 18:13 | 5169058 blindman
blindman's picture

http://www.peyote.net/legal.html
.
the criminals decide what is criminal
and what is sacred, go figure.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:08 | 5167980 blindman
blindman's picture

the coup of 1913, if not addressed, will be the
country's doom. there is the solution.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 15:47 | 5168581 Theremustbeanot...
Theremustbeanotherway's picture

Money does not create true wealth....it's a zero sum game...

Bankers don't create a f***ing thing, they just re distribute wealth upwards ...socialism for the 0.1%.

 

 

 

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 17:49 | 5168972 PoliticalRefuge...
PoliticalRefugeefromCalif.'s picture

How do you educate the willfully uninformed?, most have never heard of the Federal Reserve, if by chance they do, they think it's some warehouse full of hundred dollar bills.

No the rot is too deep to approach through reason, how are you ever going to convince them of the structural damage done through the suspect 17th. amendment to people who have voted for their own US Senator all their lives and can't see the implications of this travesty?..might as well toss the 19th. in as well 'cause neither are going anywhere.

To explain the method of debt based currency being created just sets off the sounds of crickets, it's just too complicated for the level of intelligence we are surrounded by- same with pointing out the direct link between WWI and where we are today seems childish to the unenlightened- how can you convince them of a coup if they can't see it for what it was?

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 18:25 | 5169094 blindman
blindman's picture

Caravan To Midnight - Episode 110 Capital Kinetics with Greg Morse
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmJKrhWucC0
.
maybe the ice bucket challenge will wake people up
to reality?

Tue, 09/02/2014 - 09:34 | 5170690 blindman
blindman's picture

"I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men." -Woodrow Wilson, after signing the Federal Reserve into existence
...
..

Tue, 09/02/2014 - 10:15 | 5170881 blindman
blindman's picture

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJVlrhWaZhA
.
graham parker "don't ask me questions".
.
Crimson autograph is what we leave behind
Everywhere man set foot
War mongers laughing loud behind a painted face
Throwing tidbits to the crowd then blowing up the place

Hey Lord don't ask me questions
Hey Lord don't ask me questions
Hey Lord don't ask me questions please
Hey Lord don't ask me questions
Hey Lord don't ask me questions
Hey Lord ain't no answer in me

Well I stand up for liberty but can't liberate
Pent up agony I see you take first place
Well who does this treachery I shout with bleeding hand
Is it you or is it me well I never will understand

Hey Lord don't ask me questions
Hey Lord don't ask me questions
Hey Lord don't ask me questions please
Hey Lord don't ask me questions
Hey Lord don't ask me questions
Hey Lord ain't no answer in me

Well I see the thousands screaming rushing for the cliffs
Just like lemmings into the sea, Well well well
Who waves his mighty hand and breaks the precious rules?
Well the same one must understand who wasted all these fools

Hey Lord don't ask me questions
Hey Lord don't ask me questions
Hey Lord don't ask me questions please
Hey Lord don't ask me questions
Hey Lord don't ask me questions
Hey Lord ain't no answer in me

Ain't no answer in me no
Ain't no answer in me
Uh uh uh uh uh uh uh uh uh uh uh uh uh uh

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:30 | 5168024 juujuuuujj
juujuuuujj's picture

Neoliberals who advocate austerity will come up with any twisted argument to bring people back to the stone age.

"Don't expect decent wages, you schmucks, we'll just soak up all the profits, plunder the economy and blame it on you."

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:03 | 5168200 TheGreatRecovery
TheGreatRecovery's picture

Neoliberals do not advocate austerity.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:23 | 5168265 juujuuuujj
juujuuuujj's picture

Not only do they advocate it, austerity is their cure for pretty much everything but the clap. The IMF, Milton Friedman and the Chicago school of economics have (gang-raped), pardon, imposed austerity on pretty much all they've come into contact with.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 17:49 | 5168969 W.M. Worry
W.M. Worry's picture

Won't cure it, no but it will prevent the clap.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 15:43 | 5168566 Theremustbeanot...
Theremustbeanotherway's picture

not for themselves....just everyone else.  Give it up the ...the neoliberalism financialization project of the last thirty years has failed....

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:24 | 5168039 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

"Unfortunately for these wishful-thinkers the disciplines of the markets cannot be bypassed."

No, these diciplines have been negated, on the way to being eliminated all together.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:43 | 5168125 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

Wages to fuel demand is nothing more than a slow thinker's response to the massive printing that has devaluated everything owned in the US. or put another way more bread and circus.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 13:46 | 5168135 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Increase the purchasing power of existing dollars.

The best way to give everyone an invisible raise in wages.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:07 | 5168214 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

I'd happily settle for even stopping the decrease.

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 15:40 | 5168560 Theremustbeanot...
Theremustbeanotherway's picture

Of course this is possible and be done countless times before?!

Mon, 09/01/2014 - 14:22 | 5168278 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

We'll just pay each other to take in each other's wash. There, that'll fix it.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!