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3 Important Gold Charts - Transparent Holdings Fall As Bullion Goes East To Russia and China
3 Important Gold Charts - Transparent Holdings Fall As Bullion Goes East To Russia and China
Chart 1: Changes in Holdings (millions of oz) vs Gold Price
Nick Laird of www.ShareLynx.com has compiled some great new charts on the transparency of public gold holdings over time. The charts were emailed to us Monday night. Sharelynx.com is one of the internet’s most comprehensive sources for market related charts and is well worth the subscription. The charts are very illuminating and provide great insight into how gold has shifted between non public sources and public sources over the last 10-12 years. Below we reproduce some of Nick’s charts and some GoldCore commentary on the trends that we find most interesting.
In his charts, Nick has defined transparent gold holdings as “Total Published Repositories, Mutual Funds and ETFs”, and the gold holdings in millions of ounces are derived from these sources. The data therefore covers known private holdings of gold but excludes both the holdings of central banks, the official sector, and holdings in private ownership including for example GoldCore Secure Storage holdings.
The first chart shows a long term view of transparent gold holdings since 1970. As the gold bull market began in the late 1990s, the amount of gold held in transparent holdings rose sharply and displays a very high correlation with the rising gold price.
Chart 2: Total Ounces by Source 2004-2014
While there would obviously be some data issues in collecting gold holdings data from periods such as the 1970s and 1980s, more importantly, there was a very limited choice of accessible gold vehicles and the futures markets were in their infancy. It was only since the early 2000s that the choice of gold vehicles, and therefore high quality holdings information, became available.
Beginning in 2001, when only a few millions ounces of private gold holdings could be tracked through publically available sources, the amount of gold held in public repositories exploded as the gold price rose, reaching 20 million ounces in 2006, 50 million ounces by 2009, and over 100 million ounces by the beginning of 2013.
Interestingly, as the gold price peaked in 2011, the amount of gold flowing into ETFs, mutual funds and other public repositories kept increasing and only peaked In January 2013 as the gold price began its fall from $1,700/oz through to $1,300/oz.
Chart 2 shows a ten year view from 2004 to 2014 and drills down into the sources that make up the transparent gold holdings totals.
These sources include everything from COMEX and the GLD ETF to the iShares ETF and the Central Fund of Canada, and also publically available data on some of the smaller ETFs and online gold retailers.
While the holdings represented by the futures exchange did grow over the 2000s, their growth was quite stable. By far the largest growth in trackable gold holdings was in the GLD and the other large ETFs such as the ETF Securities and iShares products.
Gold holdings in GLD grew consistently from 2005 to 2009, but then rocketed up from 2009 to 2011 before stabilising until the end of 2013. As has been documented elsewhere, there was then a huge outflow from GLD. The trend in the other ETFs is similar although on a smaller scale.
Chart 3: Total Weight (millions of oz) vs Total Value
Chart 3 compares total weight of gold held to total value in US dollars of those holdings. The key takeaway from this chart is that, again, as the price of gold rose, there was a huge mobilisation of gold out of non publicly tracked sources into vehicles and on to exchanges where it could be publically tracked. This mobilisation of gold at its peak was somewhere between 90 million and 100 million ounces (2800 tonnes - 3100 tonnes).
The question is where did all this gold come from? Some would obviously have been from new mine supply, some probably from central bank sales, and some from dis-hoarding out of private hoards. Although HNW investors were more likely to have been buying gold in the years immediately preceding the global financial crisis and almost certainly were buying during the financial crisis.
An equally important question is that now that the public repositories have lost 30 million ounces in under 2 years, where has all that gold gone?
It would be realistic to assume that some has gone to China and the Far East since there has been evidence of such flows. Equally its possible that some of the gold that has disappeared from the ETFs and other products and sources has again gone back into private hands or else is being accumulated by the official sector such as emerging market central banks such as the Russian central bank and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).
We discussed this, hacking of the CME, JP Morgan and financial exchanges, ‘peak gold’, Russian gold buying and producing and Russia and China's plans for gold in a short interview at the weekend:
View here
MARKET UPDATE
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,277.75, EUR 974.42 and GBP 773.27 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,287.25, EUR 979.34 and GBP 774.47 per ounce.
Yesterday’s PM fix was USD 1,286.50, EUR 979.44 and GBP 773.84 per ounce.
The US markets were closed for a national holiday yesterday.
Gold in Singapore fell by $10 in illiquid trading prior to further falls in London which saw gold fall to $1,270/oz. Silver slipped $0.30 or 1.55% to $19.17 per ounce in London trading. Platinum is down 0.35% to $1,420 after falling from $1,426. Palladium failed to hold above the key $900 level and fell 2% today to $890 from $909 yesterday.
Despite ongoing significant geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and elsewhere, gold has been pushed lower and was 1.6% lower today to $1,270/oz. Silver, likewise, has followed gold lower. This looks like a final wash out as the price falls today have become headline news and sentiment is appalling.
As the old adage goes never catch a falling knife and buyers should hold out for a day or two of gains or a weekly higher close. However, given the fundamentals a real opportunity is set to presnt itself - potentially the last great buying opportunity of this phase of the bull market.
Prudent money is allocating to gold bullion in the realisation that, as the witch in Macbeth muttered, "something wicked this way comes".
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mmm HHmmmm.
Sometimes they's calls a breadknife a slingblade.
http://flic.kr/p/oBXbBw
Okay, so you’ve got a pile of gold. What will you do when the American Schutzstaffel, er, the DHS, beats down your door?
That’s right you’ll stand aside while they take it; then you’ll pack one bag for each member of your family and climb into to a cattle car that will take you to the northern reaches of Canada or Alaska. Of course, it will be in the dead of winter, and the cattle car unheated.
Isn’t there something better to do… like learn lessons of prior ages when men took matters into their hands… and reasonably pushed back against tyrants?
You see, Americans have the power to correct any grievance that could be named… and they choose not to use that power. There are three main reasons for this failure… (full article)
And then there are questions concerning several major factors that will influence gold’s price, and that no one else seems to be aware of: “cash equivalents” of companies and wealthy individuals, Mortgage Backed Securities, foreign-held US Treasuries, among others… $11,000… $22,000 (if half Ft Knox gold is “missing”)? You’ll need to study this article.
Look up gold leasing. I have x tons and lease it on paper to ETF1,ETF2,ETF3... for time periods I keep the gold. As each lease ends total gold changes.
Search it on ZH gold receivables.
So, is there a point? Sounds like the question is "where did the gold come from and where did the gold go to"? But who cares? What would you do if you found out? What difference does it make? What's the point?
where did ya come from
where did ya go
where did ya come from
goldeneye joe
In others words BTFD
yeah rght
that worked well.....
Disclosure I own a shitload of these metal doorstops......
They just sit there and lose purchasing power. But they will save my family and I when the army comes ot take us to the gas chambers....
That my friends is the real story. This currency nonsense has cost you all dearly....
I can take years getting in or out of a position in anything, you sound very impatient
gold and silver pumpers are no better than ISIS, The Squid, JPM, etc
The only diff is they get airtime here
Why would you want to sell into a declining fiat price of a hard asset?
May as well hold onto what you have and keep buying into the weakness.
Interesting, but completely meaningless IMHO. A decline in ~35M ounces is the equivalent of ~ 1100 metric tonnes of gold that the public coughed up IN RESPONSE to an already declining gold price. This is not the cause, it's the effect. The cause was the previous rise that couldn't be serviced anymore, and a further rise in the gold price was just not allowed. The smash was a paper gold operation, and somebody made tonnes of fiat (and phyzz). Could Mr. Sharelynx make a graph of how much paper gold was traded over time? It would make these numbers look TINY. MICROSCOPIC. Stack on.
No comment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eWOtsiIso8
How much total gold really???
Silver too.
Shadows I say.
Hard to believe any chart or report nowadays.
Jimi Hendrix "Castles Made of Sand"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMGYAkUtKQw
We shall see.
There's something happening here, what it is ain't exactly clear.
Wikipedia says that ANNUAL PRODUCTION of gold is in the range 2800 tons.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_gold_production
That's the same amount these charts claim to map.
Then it says there should be bout 171,000 tons floating (!) around somewhere.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold
So either these charts are bogus, or else ALL GOLD DISAPPEARS AFTER ONE YEAR!
cuz I got it all
Can I be your pool boy?
Whenever I walk into my LCS, here in Phoenix,
I wonder where are all the millionaires? AU & AG is on sale,
and yet, and yet, Not ONE Mega Millionaire (Phoenix Sun, Cardinal, Nascar star, Diamondback, etc)
is emptying the store with a few 100K, not here or anywhere.
Nuts, right?
Most people are momentum traders and will only react to fear or greed. I am a gold broker in AZ and we have plenty of clients that are putting very large postions into gold and silver. The millionares that are hedging are the type that do not flaunt money. In fact I would never know they had millions unless we were setting up the trades for them.
The rich and famous like me (jus' kidd'in) watch the charts day'n night. OMG! PM's are gettin'in MONKEY HAMMERED AGAIN! (no surprise) TIME TO BACK UP THE TRUCK! I go to "comparegoldprices" and/or, "comparesilverprices.com". I find out whats on sale on what I want to replace in my stack that I keep tragically loosing. I place my order on line. About two weeks later, my postman rings my bell to sign for a registered delivery.
Thats why you never see me or my fellow rich and famous at the LCS and, NO ONE ELSE DOES EITHER.
Then I go down to the moorage and set out on a usually unfortunate boat trip again.
Wash, Rinse. Repeat.
I just bought 10 more oz of AG today..........but not in AZ.
All will be revealed in the fullness of time!
Sorry, some kind of computer malfunction occurred when I tried to post something.
Am I missing something or should we not really give a toss about these tables until the fraudulent ETFs collapse.
How can it be a gold chart if most of what it represents is pure nonsense fraudulent toilet paper?
One day, the only important question regarding Ag & Au will be 'do you have any, or not'
Comparing something tangible with paper promises or digits on hard-drives is pointless.
Currencies are only as valuable as what you can get exchange 'em for.
As an example - you are hungry and you have a block-chain written down (you were sensible enough to keep a hard copy)
The other guy has food.
That's likely called starvation.
If you can show a small piece of shiny yellow metal, your chances of eating will be much higher.
In the decades long turmoil to follow the crash of the $, all us posters will be dead or raving loons. Just wait until Fucookoo really kicks in. Large blocks of radiated fungus and mildew will start growing over the fruited plains of California.
I’d guess only one FEMA Zones may survive long-term.
Yes, I was thinking about it. Reasons for expecting a spike in Gold Value OR a Drop in Strength of USD & ability to buy imported goods:
- Markets are changing, there will be major gold hub in Asia, other kinds of Asian hubs will be important like the Trade between China & Russia which might look like a half dozen pipelines and a new Silk Road
- And your SHTF scenario, Social Collapse, Financial Collapse
- But mostly power is shifting away from US Markets & Petro Dollar... China has too many people for the old paradigm to persist exactly as we designed it with US as Supreme
- Technology is both good & Risky Unknown which is available to even the poorest countries as even Ecuador is producing Drones for International Market
Credit crisis for households would look like Austerity... hard to say what people will do.
Credit = giving someone else power over you.
Why I avoid it as best I can.
I'll be the first to admit I don't completely understand the precious metal markets but what I do know is every Indian, Paki and Chinese I work with devotes from 2% to 8% of their after tax incomes to the stuff. A lawyer I met at a show devotes 20% of every months check to the glistening Perth Mint coins and bars.
Wow, sounds like testimony to me... I'm not really informed.
repost... since I am struggling with this.
My mind is going back and forth looking at the Financial Bubble like Dow Jones Index and Derivatives... and the Gold Chart which has never been higher than $2000.
It looks like if you were in USA, India or China you could have bought gold for $500 an Ounce back in 2003-2004. Gold is getting more expensive to mine, but poor people are still doing it on the cheap in South America. Supply problem maybe if 500 tons or 1000 tons is not available (it is like 2000 tons sold to Asia each year?)
So, linearly I can see gold continue slow climb. But it topped out a few years back and declined due to the "Fixing". Still there is no guarantee that US Government will allow huge gains and everyone uses dollars, Yuan, Euros or some currency right now NOT Gold. I want gold for my holdings since our enemies are gathering gold for any possible change in Global Reserve Currency partly to poor stewardship of USD... and also gold is a base for reserves in trade & banking.
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-r...
From link: "The magnitude of this credit (debt) bubble is staggering, over forty-nine (49) times larger than the 1929 stock market crash. Look at the 1929 crash way off to the left there. It’s almost minuscule."
The Financial & Debt Bubbles are completely different animals from the Gold Market.
Money & Credit has high Utility. Everyone needs money, water, food, shelter, transportation, energy... and maybe EBT cards & Welfare Payments.
Money is said to be key to progress in all societies (credit & Debt are the same thing except you Enslave yourself)
AVG UK Household Debt is like $200K British Pounds. USA is not that different. So we are partly enslaved within a Fascist Banking & Government System it appears. The British Empire is the model for Global Trade that we all have taken on today: China, Russia, EU, UK, USA.
- Debt Bubble
- Financial Cycle Bubble(Credit)
- Stock Market Bubble
- Central Bank Bubble
- Federal Budget Bubble
- US Executive Compensation Bubble
- US Subsidies, Corporate Welfare Bubble
- USD Bubble(Credit)
We are juggling all of this and saying: Gas & Oil is the new Gold, it is the energy the leads to progress in our society. BUT I notice US War seems to be centered on "LAND" which contains either Oil/Gas or Opium & Cocaine
The goal of wars always has either riches or markets or both.
- 2002 seems to be the start of a WAR Bubble
- Considering the long list of Bubbles above, the US Must Exercise Power globally to continue to prove it is a Superpower
- So perhaps War ends at the same time as the US Bubble provided no one else has money or energy to try to invade the USA or Strike the USA with other weapons
IF TPTB want USA to continue as a country it is now positioning assets
- Increasing Migration of all kinds
- Using Mergers, take overs, LBO, Credit to buy up companies, intellectual property, real estate, debt within the USA
- Creating New Derivatives based on Auto Loans & Credit Card Debt
- Influencing International Treaties to favor property rights of Bankers, Debt Holders, Holding Companies OVER the rights of Bankrupt Individuals
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/ROWFDN... ($3.16 Foreign Investment USA)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GPDI ($2.69 Private Domestic Investment)
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/intinv/iip_glance.htm
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/intinv/iip_glance.htm ($26 Trillion foreign compared to $22 for US) (This is very interesting as Big Banks are growing strongly, but the number of total us banks is dramatically decreasing, like someone is gaming the system, Commercial Banks in the U.S. - FRED - St. Louis Fed)
Considering the Actions of the FBI & DOJ since 2001, it seems clear there has been a coup in the USA pulled off by influencing the US Congress & Legislation... The Root being Money
What is the worst thing we have to fear? Being Enslaved as a Nation after a Dollar Collapse or Financial Collapse.
What is the best approach to defending a 3 week supply of food from a horde of 4,000?
Defense against “a horde of 4,000?”
Forget the 4,000… you have to worry about the horde of 12. That’s all it will take.
Here’s how. One of them tosses a brick thru your cabin window. You go on battle alert… your adrenaline is pumping… nothing happens… 1 hour… 2 hours.
Then a pebble lands on your western-facing roof… you, again, go on battle alert… nothing happens… for two hours.
This procedure is repeated 24, 48, 72 hours. The question is, ‘How long can you go without sleep?’
Keep asking yourself this question; and you’ll realize they don’t have to fire a shot; they just wait for you to fall asleep from exhaustion. Then guess what they’ll do?
There is a better way, a historically-proven way; here’s an intro.
What is the best approach to defending a 3 week supply of food from a horde of 4,000?
Rocket Propelled Grenades with Shrapnel Warheads to establish a perimeter. Then you set up Minefields within the Intermediate Perimeter. Then you can use Semiauto or automatic Rifle Fire for Short Range.
Of course if someone is that good to get inside, up, close, and personal, then you can use Handguns.
I have outlined in my posts on Zerohedge, links to Youtube Videos on the Fabrication of Makeshift Landmines (With a little imagination the Terminal Cornucopia devices can be modified.) I have also included links as how to make High Power Rocket Engines.
Hopefully you have paid attention.
That horde of 4000 will seek softer targets.
Best approach stick your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye. A hungry person will stop at nothing. Best thing to do is picture yourself as one of the 4,000 what would you do to get to you. Pray my brother is all I can say
1000 miles of open ocean
Gatling Gun... or maybe fortified shooting positions, concrete bunkers, your choice of semi-auto.
Interesting idea, semi-autonomous drones outfitted with high capacity gatling gun kits. .357 caliber?
The Benelli M2 Tactical is what I read HH suggest the other day. Tried one out and they are definitely a nice reliable gun.
Well, I guess you always have to look at Maintenance of any gun... is it hard, difficult, can you do the maintenance in the field?
US Army gave this up as a Doctrine. Who knows why. Russian Tanks were still rolling in Afghanistan after like 20 years... they had few problems with dust & sand... low maintenance... like a dream.
Now you look at modern, silly putty, USA... they make the same mistake as the Russians. Hm. Invest hundreds of Billions of Rubles or Dollars into a war in Afghanistan (or Irac)... and what?
They forget how expensive Logistics is when you are over 600 miles from the Land of USA... and how many ships or airplanes you need to launch an invasion... and how impossible it is to maintain the funding and structure to move supplies and weapons from the USA to a war zone. Well they defeated the USSR, but did the same thing in Afghanistan and (unbelievably) expanded to full out war in Iraq.
So... Bankers appear to be advocating war for the destruction of USA. WAR is destructive & Foolish on the Budget side as we did this to the Russians. So why try it with dumb, fat, brain dead, American Kids?
It is a set up.
Bankers continue with Ratings, Financial Ratings, Credit, Business Model Approval,.. all to foment war and to Create Crisis.
Problem: The Crisis is US Constitution & US Solvency.
Get a Clue. Learn what Integrity Means. It means conservative accounting, conservative Ratings, Standard Financial Instruments, Standardized Land Zoning, and it means... Getting Money out of Politics... so that people matter and success of people matters, and middle class matters, and Human Rights Matters, and US Individual Rights Matter.
But look, They know the truth.
Since when has "sentiment" ever stopped TPTB to screw with us?
TPTB is fighting for their lives. Their holy USD is being attacked from a number of enemies. If they think it would work, they would try to drive prices down much much further but not unless they could control the market by confiscating gold or making gold ownership illegal.
All eyes on Russia and China now. New gas deals are just the beginning of the end for the Petro Dollar.
I'm interested by both your post and the first post's use of the word 'enemies'.
By your use you are seeming to suggest that TPTB are your allies and the true soverign gold bug states are the 'enemies'
Very ironic.
For me...my enemy's enemey is...? Sure as hell not my 'enemy'
Dear Dame, rest assured that TPTB are certainly not my allies. I'd have to be a masochist to consider otherwise. Their daily reaping does not give me pleasure. I'm a bit of a sadist though when it comes to letting my imaginations run wild.
The idea that one day maybe there could be a truly free market again where TPTB gets thrown into the dungeons of old European castles and left to rot in their own feces makes me grin from ear to ear.
Yep - gold is being pushed lower by the "gold fix". In spite of dramatically rising geopolitical tensions. Gotta keep the dollar house-of-cards going while more pressure is exerted on Russia, that disobedient leader of the anti-petrodollar axis.
Hold out for at least a four-story building before trading 1 OZ of shiny gold.
If the big question is where has all that gold gone so important then why not ask the simple question: "Where did those gold holdings come from?"
Plus, Gold always gets "Da treatment" ahead of periods where strength is expected (September, Ukraine. ISIS etc.) so that if it does rise it can do so from a lower base, hence preserving the caps under any circumstances. It would be nice to see both Russia and China fight back by palying the same "Not for profit" game and establishing enormous long positions on Comex and LBMA, then standing for delivery. That would shake up the paper games quite quickly....Actually, Silver would the place to start because Shanghai needs the physical anyway and its a much smaller market to corner.
Chart 2 could be Bigger. I can't read it. Looks like Canadian Mint has the largest increase and holdings of Gold????
But nice that someone put this together with charts. Maybe need a legend for chart 2.
If you hold your dollars in a bank you risk them being devalued and/or stolen (inflation and bailin's).
If you hold gold in your home (or somewhere only you know) you risk it being devalued or stolen.
Honestly, in say five years, which do you think has a higher risk of being devalued/stolen?
Case closed.
Yup..., this rocketship is getting ready to leave the station.
To the moon..., etc., etc.
Only a matter of time now..., when, not if.
Yup..., I'm gonna be rich....
You'll see..., the Great Pumpkin will be here, and you'll be sorry...
I'm glad I've given that one up. I look at the coins I have as insurance. Just like with life insurance, I don't look to them for future happiness.
anyday, now... it's gonna start - my real life.
and anyday, now: everything is gonna be all right...
anyday, now: life's gonna get real good.
and somehow: life'll be like i sed it would
anyday, now - mark my word!
anyday, now - i will be heard!
anyday, now - my ship will finally come in...
anyday, now: i'm gonna jump right in.
and anyday, now: my destiny will begin.
and until then i'll just be here
wasting my time...
but, don't you worry,
i'll be just fine:
anyday, now - mark my word!
anyday, now - i will be heard!
anyday, now - my ship will
finally come in...
-- Bif Naked, "Any Day Now"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7M_zAgMK02U