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The Morning After: What Happens When A Government Destroys Its Currency
Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,
Imagine this scene:
“Everyone in the country was in shock. People’s net worth had devalued more than 53% overnight.”
“The value in savings accounts dropped in half and neither merchants nor consumers knew how to react because they had never been through something like it before…”
This is how an American business executive described living through Mexico’s devaluation of the peso exactly 38 years ago on September 1, 1976.
Looking back, it was so obvious.
Mexico had a mounting debt, destructive policies, and a woefully unsustainable fixed exchange rate with the US dollar. All the writing was on the wall.
But most people ignored the warning signs and kept their money in pesos.
Mexican President Luis Echevarria even went out on the radio to reassure people that the currency was safe.
Finally, under intense fiscal pressure, the government reached its breaking point. And on August 31, 1976, they made the decision to devalue the peso.
People woke up the next morning on September 1st to a 50%+ decline.
Coincidentally today is also the 75th anniversary of the Nazi invasion of Poland, the event that ultimately dragged the world into war.
Germany had already invaded Austria and Czechoslovakia in the months before.
By May 1939 Hitler had stated very plainly, “the decision remains to attack Poland at the first opportunity.”
Even a week before the invasion, Hitler told his military commanders, “I have prepared . . . my ‘Death’s Head’ formations with orders to kill without pity or mercy all men, women, and children of Polish descent or language.”
Germany had 60 divisions massed on the Polish border ready to invade.
Yet people in Poland were told to keep calm, remain in place, and have confidence in their leaders.
Finally, on August 30, the Polish government ordered a partial mobilization to meet the German threat.
Needless to say, it was too little, too late. Germany invaded only hours later.
This is a familiar story that repeats across history. Despite obvious warning signs, people almost universally allow themselves to ignore reality.
It’s human nature to want to believe that everything is going to be OK. And when our political leaders whisper soothing words of hope and optimism, we take the bait.
Looking back, it was plain as day that Mexico was going to devalue the peso. Everything about the economy and currency was totally unsustainable. Deep down people knew it.
Similarly, it was plain as day that Hitler was going to decimate Poland. And people knew it.
Yet millions allowed their confidence to be misplaced in leaders who assured them that everything was OK.
Are we so different today?
The raw numbers tell us that most banks in Europe are insolvent. Bank in the US are dangerously illiquid.
Most western governments are bankrupt. Pension and social security funds are insolvent.
Financial markets are at precarious valuations. And the dollar is beginning to unravel as the dominant reserve currency.
These are data-driven assertions. And my guess is, deep down, your instincts are also telling you that something is seriously wrong with the system.
Yet we’re all told to keep calm by our leaders. There’s nothing to see here, nothing to worry about.
Looking back, it’s all going to seem so obvious. If a major, global currency crisis hits within the next 12-months, people will think, “duh, how did I not see that coming?”
Unfortunately by then it will be too late.
It takes only a little foresight and planning to insulate yourself from an event that can have disastrous consequences.
If you knew the Mexican peso was at an unsustainable level, why would anyone continue to hold pesos?
Similarly, if all the objective data suggests that the dollar is in store for an epic decline… and that the entire world is on a path to shift away from the dollar, why in the world would any rational person base his entire life savings in dollars?
It takes little effort to actually do something about it. Hold stronger currencies overseas. Own real assets. Move your retirement account abroad where your bankrupt government can’t steal it.
These are common sense steps, just like putting on a seatbelt when you get into a car.
The time to act is now. Why play Russian roulette when the odds are clearly in favor of the house?
Don’t try to time it. Nobody has a crystal ball. It’s irrelevant whether the trend unfolds over weeks, months, or years. It’s pretty clear where this is all headed.
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But it's different this time they said.
Yeah but it's a great way to cut our obscenely high medical costs in a hurry!
Oh wait..
Cryptocurrencies to the rescue.
Damn, that's one ugly bitch.
What is "money"?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSg5yZvnJf8
the people of Cyprus were also fleeced by their president just days before the banks shut down and accounts were stolen. While their government was lying to them and telling them nothing would happen to their bank accounts, the oligarchs and scumbag politicians were moving their money out of the banks in secret. Then they fucked everybody else over.
They got: Corzined
And the vast majority of the American people are destined to get Corzined too one of these days soon.
I just can't see trying to store any type of funds in other countries. Which one(s) do you choose? We have no clue what is safe anywhere right now, and I'm pretty damn sure that nothing will be safe anywhere after the shit hits the fan.
Best thing to do for those of us who don't have access to a G5 jet and armed security gaurds (which is the vast majority of us, of course) is to just hold on to what we have physically and defend it ourselves.
Get out of the banking system. Hold onto cash and precious metals. Stock up on water, food, other essential supplies, medical supplies, camping and fishing gear, guns and ammo, etc. etc. Then just be ready to hunker down for as long as it takes to make it through the reset and all the chaos and maybe you'll come out of it okay on the other side.
"Get out of the banking system. Hold onto cash and precious metals. "
Isn't the cash part of the banking system? Or are you saying that cash will survive an individual bank crash, at least for the first timeframe...?
Think Cyprus. They confiscated large portions of people's accounts with a couple clicks of a mouse. Harder to do if your savings are in the Bank of Folger's.
And what would we devalue against? All other currencies would simply change their exchange rates. Gold? So what, we aren't on a gold standard and the price is set by the market. How does the US actually pull off a devaluation?
BTW savings confiscation is deflationary, making the money more valuable...
Not if they keep printing it to oblivion.
The Yankee dollar will remain king for a long long time. This bubble is about to burst. The DOW has just peaked. Get rid of precious metal...fast.
WTF ????
..you mean this solid zinc and lead coin with no ridges has no value ?????
Who ya gonna call? TRUST BUSTERS!*
evil plan..
I cannot believe I am thinking this.. I am so evil .
Merkel and Yellen in the same bed.
hmm.. what part about "porking" do you not understand ?
gee.... Hillary, are you out there somewhere?
PLEEZE!!! Do not mention Hillary and porking in the same post. ;-/
I suspect that China and/or the rest of the BRIC countries are develiping an asset backed currency to replace the dollar and I think they are very close. When enough markets have developed elsewhere, they are going to take us down. Whats coming for NATO is going to make the great depression look like a cakewalk. Unfortunately, it will probably cascade into a global conflagration. Hunker down and shelter in place until the worst has passed. Movement in the United States will be very limited during the worst phase of the "event".
Recommended preps ASAP.
Of course its deflationary- why else would they be doing it if not to kick the can, pay one more day/week/month's worth of interest on your debt so you can avoid an admitted default on what your government owes?
Greece doesn't have a printing press- the United States does. Rather than risk political and civil unrest ( unless that is what the powers that be want..) why would they all out confiscate accounts unless they had to ( the QE gun has gotten out of hand and run-away inflation is about to begin) ? They can just print mo' money to make the banks solvent again-- just like they did the last time. And when they can't they confiscate accounts so they can look like they aren't printing more money for a time.. they will start with retirement money first - everyone must contribute to MyRA - all 401K and IRA must be held in 100% safe and secure 30 Year govt bonds.. Why do you think their zombie banks are showing record "profits" in markets which are entirely rigged? Because that results in record tax receipts. It kicks the can. It slows the bleed on paper..They are already taking money out of your accounts with each bit of inflation. Every price increase and resultant sales tax. They will walk the tightrope between inflation and deflation as long as they can - because each minute is another minute they spend in luxury and earning the big bucks along with their cronies. Every minute is another minute you get poorer, your wages are worth less and your standard of living drops. Does it matter if they steal from you outright by seizing accounts or by devaluing the money by printing it?
The Pols are arguing about 6% or 8% growth rates in government spending ( 6% growth is a cut you see..) and geometric growth will eventually end this because the rest of the economy - the part that sweats, makes and produces the value that the money is supposed to represent isn't growing at 6% or at 8% and it sin't going to start. At some point, you run out of other people's money. Its Math.
Cash on hand can be a lifesaver when the screws are put to the banking system. Just look at what's been happening in Argentina. That said, it's a short term boon if they change the legal tender notes and offer a cash exchange for new pennies on the old dollars. That's where things of value (like, but not limited to gold and silver) can preserve wealth.
Yes. What is "money" is defined by markets. What is "currency" is defined by governments. Gold is always accepted by central banks to settle accounts (because it's always marketable), but all currencies may not be accepted (when untrusted by markets).
Central banks can always generate more currency (and often do), but can never produce more gold (and never will). The lesson of this self evident difference is periodically inflicted on the general public.
Put simply, the banksters always operate on a gold standard, even though governments do not.
That's bunk, a bankster won't even take gold as colladeral on a loan, they use some funk called a credit score to determine your risk and then lend a certain amount. Pawn shops are more backed by gold than western banksters.
For the US, devaluation is primarily aimed at existing fixed rate debt holders - eg gov't debt such as T bills which would lose that proportion of their value. Think of it as an instant overnight hyperinflation. Even TIPS might be affected depending upon how they define inflation - or how they write the executive order to devalue.
Fed gets to redeem (existing) securities with much cheaper dollars. But good luck selling new bonds.
Among the public, fixed rate mortgage holders would be big winners (unless some clause regarding a devaluation exists).
"How does the US actually pull off a devaluation?" Ummmm by printing copius quantities of US Dollars.
..
Somehow that reminds me of Bitcoin but hey what do I know I'm just one of the sheep
In those days, I did outside sales for a Houston-based wholesaler and was doing a Valley-run; calling on customers from Brownsville up to McAllen. Every merchant located in close proximity to the border kept Pesos to faciliitate business for the many Mexican customers who crossed daily when they wanted goods N/A on the other side, or to save money.
Overnite the rate went from 1:8 to 1:12. 50% loss on the Pesos they held. Not much business done that trip on the border...
Of course Los Mexicanos were fortunate up until then. Their Banco Centrale, if they had one, had not been ripping and running scince 1913 and "inflatione" hadn't been used to plunder La Nacion... Americans were just robbed every day. Especially when gold and silver backed currencies removed from the scene. But... we never had a devaluation! Only every friggin day of our lives!
What is money? Supposed to be a "store of value" that doewn't change. You earned it, paid taxes every inch of the way and then they robbed you by "policy decision" and setting exchange rates for political purposes. I recall an old Andy Hardy movie where Judge Hardy tears off a piece of a $5 bill and gives it to Andy to go to the store. In the 30s, that worked. We just hadn't tumbled by then to the fact that our Central Bankers had been tearing little pieces off our money ever since the Federal Reserve Act came about. I would say enacted, but that was never properly done...
Last trip I took to Mexico in 1985, the Peso was maybe 1:2400. Then Clinton bailed out the NY banks for the Mexican Govt and they returned to 1:8, iirc. That was put on our backs too... America's Citizens, living to pay for everyone else in the world since WW-I, The Big One... Funny how that all coincided w/creation of da fed...
For further reading on the history of money and esp the secret Bailout by Clinton and the Fed of Mexico [to save NYC bankers on the backs of Merikan peeples] read the Secret World of Money by Andrew Gause:
http://www.amazon.com/Secret-World-Money-Andrew-Gause/dp/0965658902/ref=...
It's a thin booklet you can read in one day but a wealth of very readable inifo an facts you will never forget.
As BooMush says, and think of it as another hedge. Your Ben Franklins may shortly become toilet paper, but there may be a range of time where they will still function as a means of exchange (they will still have a face value and may still be accepted by vendors, versus the face value of your debit card when the electronic system is not functioning.) Might still avail you to purchase those last few cans of pinto beans as the superrmarket shelves are getting wiped clean.
My Ben Franklins were minted in 1959, thank you very much.
Wait, 1959? Then those aren't 'Ben Franklins' -- you meant to say 'Rich "Uncle" Pennybags'...
@RaceToTheBottom
as BooMushroon and Gern Blanston said...that was my meaning exactly. Get your dollars out of the system. Because once they take the system down you won't be able to get anything. Maybe they will allow small portions of your cash to be withdrawn....100 bucks a day or something like that. But good luck with that.
There will be panic in the streets...fights and most defintely shootings at ATM's or the stores, etc. And while what's left of your accounts are locked up in the banking system not only will it have been devalued by some percentage, but once what little confidence that was left in the dollar quickly disappears and goods become more scarce, inflation is going to wipe the rest out rather quickly.
So keep as much cash outside the system as you can. Reduce your bank account to just what little you need to pay monthly bills. Start extracting the rest over paycheck or whatever your daily withdrawl amount might be until you can get most of it out.
Because that will be another capital control...they will shrink withdrawl amounts per day or limit which days you can even get anything, etc. etc.
Another good trick might be to convert some of you paper cash into nickels and store them away. The old Kyle Bass trick. Nickels, although not 90% silver, still have a good nickel/copper value and will always be worth at least 5 cents. I think a nicke right now is actually worth more than 6 cents just in nickel/copper melt value but those little suckers might be worth 25 cents melt value or better once the dollar is wiped out and the values of metals shoot to the moon.
So squirrel away a couple hundred bucks in nickels. Like I said...they will always be worth at least the face value, and the metal value could make nickels the next valuable "junk" coinage like what because of pre-1965 silver coins once they stopped minting them. Now a silver dime is worth $1.38 today with silver hovering above 19 bucks right now. And we all know silver is going to be over 100 bucks in the very near future.
http://www.coinflation.com/coins/silver_coin_calculator.html
Another thing to do now...and this depends on your age too, of course....is to stop contributing to a 401k. If you're not within a couple years of retiring right now then my guess is you'll never see that money. It's just a big rip off for anyone else these days to lock their money away in a 401k. I'm 43....I highly doubt I'll ever see that money unless I quit my job right now and cash it in while also paying the penalty and the taxes, etc. Which if I do leave my current job for whatever reason that is exactly what I will do.
The penalty for cashing it in is worth paying now rather than continuing to put my money into it and risk losing it all by devaluation, stock market crash, or government confiscation. All very real possibilities to happen anytime in the near future.
Better just to keep the money from your paycheck and use it towards precious metals and other supplies, etc. At least that's what I'm doing...it's everybody's personal choice of course.
I hate to even bring up the Bitcoin thing...seems to get people all riled up one way or the other. I have no clue if it will be worth it, if the internet will be taken down and block people from using Bitcoins. But I still wanted to try them out a little bit, so I set up a wallet and bought a quarter of a Bitcoin today when the "value" was around 473 bucks per coin. I just wanted to get the hang of the wallet and how to transfer from wallet to wallet. It was only a little over 100 bucks for a quarter Bitcoin, so I figured what the hell. But I don't trust the whole system yet, so I'm in no way advocating putting a lot of our dollars into those at this time.
Hell...it might not be a bad idea to buy a stack of Yuan/Renminbi right about now either if at all possible. The exchange rate is little over 6:1. But with the deals China is making and if they back the Yuan with some percentage of gold, well that exchange rate is definitely going to come down as the dollar falls out of it's place as the world reserve currency.
The Yuan might come into parity with the dollar and even become more valuable in years to come, so buying some now (if that's possible for American? I'm not sure) could be a real good currency play to position out of dollars.
Trouble with the yuan is when the chinese bring out a new series of bills, the old bills are null and void. The chinese might back the yuan with gold but they will issue a new series and void the current.
Thanks for this. I've got some cash in an IRA from a 401k at a previous job. It's in cash now planning on jumping in if things drop out. But I've also thought of cashing out, paying the penalties just to have a reserve of outside-the-bank cash. Buy silver, or whatever temporarily. I just can't decide. It's a big scary step, but also scary to see that cash only existing as numbers on a computer screen. I can seek out and find people recommending both ways, but I just haven't been able to decide yet. I don't want to wait to long, but it would also be nice to have a bunch of cash to jump into something like an index fund when things are at their bottom. I'm decades from retirement...
makes me laugh with your " buy pm "
all you buy is paper & sometimes tungsten bar painted yellow....
there is nothing to fucking buy... why the fuck they slam it down .... just because to prevent everybody to buy physical. they cannot respond to any demand. period.
It is and it isn't. If its in their bank, they have access to it. If its under yiour mattress, they don't have access to it.
This article is about currency devaluation not bailins.
So holding on to cash (currency) IS the problem. Currency will be devalued, whether cash under the mattress or deposit in a bank.
Yea I suspect bailins too. Devalue the currency AND steal people's bank accounts.
And their 401k and pension fund.
Why not? The people are dumb stupid lazy sheep. They won't do anything about it.
lol the fed had already doubled the money supply and halved its value.
want proof look at the exchange rate of the canadian dollar to the usd since qe.
the fed res, stealing silently as its system is designed. enslaving a free people to
debt and capturing all assets through boom and bust it creates...for 100 years.
Got 10 dogecoins that this is the new Phonestar burner account.
Russian roulette? or Federal Reserve roulette???
PAPER SUCKS AND IS SUBJECT TO DEVALUATION AND INFLATIONARY THEFT!!!!!!!! 53% OVERNIGHT!!!!!!!
Therefore, I shall shift my paper US Dollar into ... some other paper!
LOL!!
Thanks Simon!!
Naw dawg, I'll shift mine into silver, gold, lead, and creature comforts. But thanks for your concern.
He simply sees a different level of outcome than you do. At least Simon Black is out there warning people. Good for him. Like all information, use it as you see fit.
just like i said but there is 12 mongoloïd faggot who didn't understood what i wrote. must be nigers from ferguson.
While you have a point, there will always be paper. Even in Germany after Weimar, they still eventually used paper again. The question then is what paper to hold (if any) and where/how to hold it. If you choose to hold zero paper, that's fine, no one would fault you I'm sure.
I agree with those who think there is a window for holding physical USD cash before it goes totally to TP value, and with those who think holding other paper (CAD, AUD, Yuan, etc) might be wise. Along with holding physical assets too, of course.
.
There is no stronger force in the world right now then governments. Because the goverment is willing to point a gun at its citizens to extract money to pay its debts or allow the bankers to play their malicious games with the currency to get to the same end.
The bankers know this, the gov officials know this....it is the people that fail to recognize what drives it. Therefore, you get the response that you see here. People indignant and confused about how a market would go up when things are bad. Becase they have not recognized who is in control here.
It is quite simple if you recognize the bankers have a gun to the head of the government. The gov officials, fearful of losing power/control, will put a gun to the head of their citizens to pay off the bankers. And in our world today, that extraction is driven primarily through inflation and thus the upside down, bad is good for the banker class.
It will only be when the citizens recognize this unholy alliance and that they, the people, are the strongest force will this change. When they get rid of the banker/mafia thugs, their goverment will once again stop oppressing them.....END THE FED!!
Time to complete the vicious circle and the people put a gun to the bankers' heads.
That would make a great cartoon.....BANZAI!
Once that is in place the crucial element will be who pulls the trigger first.
I think John Woo has the copyright on that.
Under a Fascist system, which we have now, the State is placed above everything else. But as that Italian dude who ended up hanging by his thumbs found out, it's the people that give any State its legitimacy. If we all said No at the same time, they're screwed.
Russia/China produce/make everything. US/EU live on phony paper debt. R/C military power is/will increase dramatically while US/EU military power disappears. Currency is a reflection of military/industrial power. Winner Russia/China. US/EU standard of living is trashed. LA will be another Mexico City.
What does Russia make/produce?
mosin nagants' ?
AMMO. Lots and lots of ammo.
They produce oil, gas, and raw materials of course.
but then they're more like a middle eastern resource based economy than any western one. Can anyone name one russian brand consumer item apart from Vodka and AK's?
Consumer items seem to be culturally independent.
RPG's should be made available to everyone worldwide.
http://www.thomaswhite.com/global-perspectives/consumer-goods-sector-in-...
AK-47s.
But, more importantly, the oil & nat gas noted above.
Also amongst the world's largest producers of industrial diamonds, gold, aluminium...the list goes on (unlike the EU list which is next to fuck all, eh Mr Barroso).
Richest country in the world based on natural resources?
With land transport to the two most populous nations on the planet, China and India?
All that wealth transfer without the need for US/UK getting involved and taking their vig?
Oops.
Just about all defense spending is domestic...you know...can't let our weapons technologies outside the US. Hence the constant need for war.
Yes, different, but in the end things will still rhyme with historical precedents. Maybe. The thing that really IS different is the scale of the problems. It's global, ALL already are, or will be, affected one way or another.
"The time to act is now."
More "insider wisdom"...just like BIN articles...
So, Simon...how about telling the "little people" ...."how" to act....and avoid or minimize the coming pitfalls...
Do you think the average bumblefuck 'Mericun knows how to move to a self-directed 401K, or open a FX account....or even have the required margin to do so?
Other than going out and selling the Cutlass to by some 8-karat gold jewelry and a box of 12-guage slugs...beating them with "fear porn" will only guarantee mob mentality and transgression WTSHTF...
Exactly, this site has been saying something terrible is going to happen, for 5 years now. It probably will, but there's a good chance "it" won't happen for 20 years or more! I could well be dead before then.
The people of Mexico survived, somehow. Mexico is not a waste land of moonscape proportions.
So many guest posts.
People before me say ZH has changed and moved on. I'm beginning to see why, if nothing else they probably feel a little betrayed. Feeling that they are clickbait.
At least the site makes you think. But you still have to work out what's true for yourself, which is what it should be.
Exactly, this site has been saying something terrible is going to happen, for 5 years now. It probably will, but there's a good chance "it" won't happen for 20 years or more! I could well be dead before then.
So let's see if I have this correct...
You are fine with the currrent events unfolding? You do not believe that something terrible is happening RIGHT NOW?
Ebola gives you comfort.
The US troops on the ground in Ukraine give you peaceof mind.
The disaster at Fukushima makes you glow in revelry?
The increase in the Money Supply makes your hopes grow in unison.
The Quadirllion Dollar Derivatives Market imbalances gives you a balanced perspective?
Others losing their heads in the Middle East give you the solace that you will keep yours?
The insolvency of the Banks gives you a trust and confidence in the sustainance in the current system?
The Bubble Market in Housing, CURRENTLY, gives you pleasure?
YOU ARE NOTHING MORE THAN A STATIST TROLL.
Yes Mexico is a wasteland of Moonscape proportions. That IS THE FUCKING REASON THAT THEY EMIGRATE TO THE UNITED STATES, ILLEGALLY, IN DROVES.
SO...Why don't you go and AUTOFELLATE since you are evidentially so SPINELESS and are a CONTORTIONIST?
Nobody here is going to suck your dick or the jism that cums out of it. You might as well do it yourself.
Oh and my address is 122223B Woodside Ave., Lakeside, CA, USA.
Let's go hunting sometime, shall we? Let's be pals.
No, allow me to explain, this OP is specifically about "What happens when a government Destroys its currency."
This site has been suggesting a US Dollar collapse is imminent...for 5 years. Many might no doubt insist this has already happened, in September 2008 in the aftermath of Lehmans and that the subsequent behavior of The Fed, buying up anything and everything to mask its collapse. The experience of Detroit is also a good local version of what happened in Mexico, and what is to come in America. Americans have had about as good and as clear a warning as they are going to get!
Yet the Dollar keeps on going, tens of millions in the States and billions worldwide are keeping "the faith." I'm not, neither are you. But whilst The Fed and the Government are without doubt destroying their currency, it is not yet destroyed.
Now on the one hand you want to be pals, yet on the other you are not going to suck my dick. Well, we could be pals if you want, I'm a broad-minded kind of guy. But you are most certainly not going to suck my dick, not on our first date. After that, if you haven't shot yourself in some hysterical fit over the inequality of our hunting skills, I suspect that your latent homosexual feelings for me will gush forth. You think you can handle me redneck?
Simon sounds like he's long the Euro...
mmmmmm... ahhhhhhh....
Hot, hot doomer porn.
Dear Tylers, could we arrange to have the titles of Simon Black articles in red from now on?
Yeah, I generally scan the title and see Mr. Black, then skip it, but every once in a while one slips through.
It's only devalued relative to some other currency.
The Italians are still there.
ha! "russian roulette"
S&P and Dow to the moooooon, hahahahaha. Just kidding, stack high and get ready for war people
But first, it's SeaHawks vs Green Bay...
We can think about this later.
/s
I feel better just reading that.
It's going to be epic. Go Packers.
Signed,
Barry.
"""But most people ignored the warning signs and kept their money in pesos"""
Nowadays the writing has been on the wall for about 20 years but the game keeps going.
The markets can be irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
caveat emptor
And history shows that after everybody is insolvent, the markets go bye-bye. It's all about whether you think in terms of weeks, months, years, decades, centuries...
will never happen. read 50 last pages of '84, you will see the system must be kept as it is work.:
bold sentence is what is happening for us actutally. we are on a global totalitarism world already. wake the fuck up. freedom is a unicorn.
That's the real reason the USG has bought all that ammo. When the collapse comes,revolution will break out across this country and the world.
Be prepare by buying PM's ammo, water,medical supplies ,food etc,in order to weather the coming Storm....
No not revolution. Just anarchy.
A revolution could have prevented all this But "it's not time yet".
Amen
Yellen, Bernanke, Obama, Draghi, Cameron, Carney are honest people. I trust them.
If David Cameron asked me for a fiver and told me he'd pay me back in a week I'd lend him twenty I trust him that much.
Or maybe, after asking, he'd quickly arrive in a world filled with my kneecap crushing his testis .
Testes.
Both-just to be sure.
He does not have (2) balls, so testis may be right.
Bank bail-ins will occur in 2015-16 when the big banks fail.
YOU the depositor will legally lose your deposit.
Of course it will be all legal.
When the lynch mob goes looking it will be too late. They will be in Paraguay and Uruguay.
"When the lynch mob goes looking it will be too late. They will be in Paraguay and Uruguay."
Surely you don't think they have been making friends there?
These kind of people don't have friends...Money always has friends.
Lynch mobs will find them where ever they try to hide.
If they were able to find Josef Mengle, they will be able to find Lloyd Blankfein.
I'm with you, provided we can make in through October.
Nah, they'll just inflate until they can't inflate anymore.
Yes, that'll be in 2015-16. Then what?
q1 2015, max q2 2015.
i can't beleive the world to slide this way for more a year with ukrain conflit on europ. some heavy shit must come before 2016.
I don't understand how your examples apply to the current situation at all. I'm not even sure what situation you are trying to indicate. For example: Mexico devalued its currency by 50%. And as you state they had an official fixed peg to the dollar. Most major economies besides China maintain no official currency peg, so who or what are you talking about?
Also are you intentionally going for a reductio ad hitlerum fallacy? So Germany had 60 divisions on Poland's border and Poland ordered a partial mobilization. What good would a total mobilization have done? The army ultimately didn't collapse until the Soviets invaded.
All I get is "the signs were there but people ignored them. What is the point of this article?
Re: What is the point of this article?
Anti-hopium clicks.
Stick around Juggalo---all of SimonBlack's article are like this one.
I believe the point of this article is as follows:
People are always ready to believe something which is diametrically opposite to what their logical mind tells them as long as it maintains the appearance of an eventual happy end.
The Mexico example applies here since back then it was very evident what's going on, just as it's very evident today and people still wait for a cliffhanger.
The Hitler example applies only partially I guess since I don't really know what is an entire nation supposed to do when they are faced with total annihilation.
Another, possibly hidden point, is that there's still time to do things right instead of waiting for shit to hit the fan, when panic, rage and anarchy will take over. Wouldn't it be just simpler to hang the bankers, strike out debts, bring back the legislation, remove the ability of private people to print money and start over? Of course, if something like that did happen, then more probable than not something would have to be used as basis for the new monetary system. Something like, IDK really, ummm... gold? And which of the world powers don't have much gold in reserve? US and EU countries? Fate, it seems, isn't without a sense of irony.
usually, victims of anihilation have no more the choice to " do " since they no longer "are".
Simon Black never cares for real facts for his flawed arguments. But he is so well meaning in our sense that Tyler keeps him on board...
Poland had many mobilizations with a standing army of some 400-500K against the Reichswehr limited to 100K , thus forever destabilizing the Weimar Republic .
Maybe Poland`s handlers were not so different from those
now driving Ukraine into the abyss ? Provoke neighbors, stay proud and big mouthed but don`t fear the consequences ?
I think the point of the article is that people really do believe "the authorities" at the end of the day. Poland was told they were ready for any. German attack...they had one of the best Air Forces actually. So there was "believability." Same with Mexico and parity with the US dollar. Where was all that 'merican oil back in the 70's (and all the other resources skyrocketing in price.)
This point wasn't made too clear in the article though...which is what happens when all you have left is plagiarism.
A: DIVERSIFY or perish. Keep the following on hand... if you can't afford a farm/ranch in Chile, etc.
Cash (mix of currencies), PM bullion, "Stuff of Life" (water, food, meds, toiletries, fuel...), Arms, etc to last you at least several months, a Disaster Plan and an active Network of Friends. You and your friends need to survive "The worst of it", not the "End of the World" that some "People of questionable intellect, ethics or agenda" keep spouting.
p.s. Simon, it wasn't so long ago that you recommended the Baltic states, Georgia or the Ukraine as "go to places". Point is, the world is too fluid and turbulent to pick THE one place to "run away" to. It reminds me of this British couple who had the same plans, left the UK and moved to... The Falklands, 6 months before troubles started. From the frying pan...
Note to the wise: A "Go To" place is the place you go to JIT (Just In Time), not JTS (Just Too Soon). Kirk out.
Tristan da Cunha.
Napolean's secret is out.
But how do you get there without going through London?
De-diversify or perish. Cash , PMs ,arms, friends all belong
to the same asset class, you got something mixed up here.
Don`t hold paper promises and much less so in far away places.Including passports and title deeds. It is keeping your stash nearby and stay with your tribe for normal folks. For the diaspora type it`s assimilation or dissimilation, if you can`t hide you better run.
Friend, Diversification is used to Mitigate Risk. All risk types and risk timelines, not just financial or monetary risk if TSHTF.
How about if I go with the general ZH timeline ?
Me no risk averse, go in , face risk up front.
Timeless ? Race is timeless, so is gold.
Dilution thereof? Eternal crime. In need of religious excuses. Pray much ? Join some joint of believers.
Friend who, me no had friends in prison nor fight club .
Though value your response highly and your underlying attitude. Not almost always your comments but you are getting better and that what is fight club all about.
There is no where left to take a "flight to safety". Equity bubbles, bond bubbles, HY credit bubbles, ZIRP, Real estate bubbles, currency devaluation (across the board, not just USD). Where do you go to? Stack PM's and watch the market get juiced and pass you by for another 1-5 years???
Edit: Forgot Bail-Ins...the hits keep on coming.
Just to stick with the metaphor, the "morning after" is gonna be a humdinger! Especially when they finally sleep it off, gather themselves, shower, shave, eat the last bowl of Life cereal and realize.... THERE'S NO MORE BOOZE!
Liquor will be great for barter.
Same with cigarettes
Nude pics of celebrities for barter?
Nude celebrities to barter for beer?
A nude BO? I'd need a case of Jack to erase that image.
BYO (Brew your own). The Queen owns Scotland and Ireland!
Historically it always has been. Get your distiller today, for tomorrow you may be one of the few in the nieghborhood with one.
What net worth?
swiss francs?
Well you sure as hell don't want French francs.
or francs cfa
Step 1. 500 oz silver [x]
Step 2. 5 oz gold [x]
Step 3. $10k value of pre collapse dollars in a mix of Yuan, Ruble, Franc and Singapore Dollars [ ] .... (I'm 1/4 of the way there )
Step 4. Grow a big ass garden over the summer and learn how to can pickles , tomatoes and more / have a 3 month food supply to supplement your diet when food cost explodes [x]
Did I miss anything ?
Invest in lots of lead.
And items that would make Piers Morgan get his panties all bunched up.
Over 14 kg of silver? How did you manage to come up with that figure and, more importantly, how do you plan to travel with that much metal strapped to your back?
Tomatoes? Pickles? Horrible choices. You need calories. Invest in quick oats, cows, rabbits, and canned beans.
Did you miss anything. Well, yeah, lots. Guns? Ammo?
How about, build greenhouse. While canning is good, keeping things growing is even better.
You will need protien, If you can't feed your livestock yourself with what you grow. I would suggest mushroom logs and a food dehydrator.
Stay fit and healthy, don't be an addict of any kind (booze, nicotine, meds, drugs) if possible. Should the system shut down for some extended time, some people will have a really hard time (or flat out die) just bcs of that alone. Have trustworthy friends, famliy, neighbors. Keep a low profile, be modest, and lead a happy life best as possible at all times.
Clean water, a tent, some outdoor utilites, a good stack of old newspapers, batteries, flashlights, candles, matches, some basic tools, etc etc. Lots of things that can come in handy that are still useful in normal life too.
One Malatov can send most homes up in flames. Fiber cement products like Hardie Siding are fireproof. Replace siding and overhangs with it. 3M film on all windows to keep shit from being thrown thru them. Reinforced doors and stormdoors. Thermal and IR rifle scopes make a great force multiplyer. Balistic panels can be had in 4x8' sheets. Ripped in half length wise, they can be installed under windows for a safer shooting position. Learn how make boobie traps. Just a few tips off the top of my head.
Potatoes. More calories per square foot than any other food, and not as susceptible to insect pests. Keeps well for half a year or better in cold dark storage (check out Mother Earth News website). The variety matters, so check on storage ability of the different types and what you tend to use them for, and try different types to find what works best in your situation.
Some people say you can grow 100 lbs in a barrel, and I will know in a few weeks if that is so. Not all types grow vertically, so you need to choose types accordingly if you do the barrel method. Bing it.
Potatoes love composted chicken manure.
http://www.curzio.com/N/PotatoProject.htm
Sure did. You need a good looking woman or two. Just saying.
"This is a familiar story that repeats across history. Despite obvious warning signs, people almost universally allow themselves to ignore reality."
Then when they are called "sheeple", they get violently pissed.
Farce
Simon, you make some good points, but this is something that you need to rethink:
1) The USG is making it difficult to not make said funds available for taxation. Borders are irrelevant to the USG.
2) When shit goes south here, it will have or will be going south elsewhere. Your funds will not be safe, because regardless of the USG, borders are irrelevant when it comes to people stealing wealth. As you said regarding timing, nobody has a crystal ball. The same applies to predicting what places will or will not steal the wealth of people who have it stored there, and as a foreigner, you'll garner a lot less sympathy from the locals if it is only your wealth and the wealth of other foreigners that is stolen rather than everybody's wealth. Actually, that's only partially true. We know that there are some places that will, without a doubt, at least attempt to steal it. Aside from those places, what we don't know is what places won't try to steal it.
This is true. Even gold kept in Switzerland has been stolen. Keep your assets under your control.
Also, don't forget that even though you're assets are tecnically out of the government's reach, they will still have you.
How long in the cell before you give them the codes?
The State of Maine, looks good.
Too cold.
Our clowns were trained at Princeton and other high class clown schools.
Clownigarchs.
Clownigarchs! Great !
Upon German "reunification" some down to earth civil rights activists from Eastern Germany proclaimed upon confronted
with the sorry defeated creatures of the formerly all powerful nomenklatura : " And we were scared of these clowns?"
The emperor has no cloth .
Mexican President Luis Echevarria even went out on the radio to reassure people that the currency was safe.
Ah, the dreaded vote of confidence. Probably the single best indicator that you're going to hell in a handbasket.
Yup, get the big fork out
"Mexican President Luis Echevarria even went out on the radio to reassure people that the currency was safe."
Translation: "Don't bail until I have all of mine out and safe."
An American, not US subject.
Echevarria's successor, Lopez Portillo (President 1976-1982), swore he would defend the peso "like a dog." The peso tanked anyway, of course, and hecklers followed him the rest of his life, barking like dogs at every public appearance.
Should have guillotined him.
An American, not US subject.
Regarding the dollar collapse, it's not if, but when. That latter question is the real thing.
I'm pretty sure it's a small minority here that thought the Fed could keep blowing this feather into the air for as long as it has. The Black Swan's imminent arrival is not announced by trumpets that are heard by many.
This thing will keep running until we look down, Wile E Coyote-like, at the ground which is no longer just below us.
More importantly, no one really knows what thoughtful precautions will be as effective as the little umbrella Wile pops out with just before waving goodbye.
"Regarding the dollar collapse..." I don't think there will be a dramatic decline in the US dollar index (which is measured against other fiat currencies, Euro, Swissy, Pound, Yen et al). All those have their own flaw(s). Fiat will continue in some form, but all fiat currencies will eventually collapse against gold at some point. Till then, stack on at bargain prices.
I'm pretty sure Japan and most EU countries will "go Greece" before the US loses reserve status and things fall apart here. At least that's how I'm playing it. That's my warning sign.
Small amount of PMs, food, ammo -- but not stacking like it's an emergency. When the above happens and they start denying it can ever happen here, time to hunker down and be ready for the crisis.
The boat is not leaking, that's the new swimming pool, so everybody get ready to take a bath.