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145 Years Of Japanese "Growth" And Inflation

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Well into the second year of Abenomics, doubts have risen about the effectiveness of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s approach of boosting economic growth and overcoming deflation via “three arrows” of monetary, fiscal, and structural policy. Yet another set of disappointing data recently released for July has reinforced these doubts. As several key turning points approach before year-end, whether Abenomics will succeed or stumble is at the forefront of most traders' minds (whether they understand that or not). In the interest of some context for just how far Japan has fallen, we present 145 years of growth and XX-flation for the Japanese economy... one might argue that 'lost decade' or two is generous...

 

 

As one former Japanese Economic Policy cabinet member noted,

"I am very concerned [about the widening trade deficit], not about the widening of the trade deficit in itself, but about the fact that this widening is a result of a rising energy import burden. This situation cannot continue forever; we must reform our energy policies.”

 

"Monetary policy is just a placebo – it has no effect on real economic activity and certainly no effect on the longer-term growth path of the Japanese economy."

Yukio Noguchi

 

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

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Wed, 09/03/2014 - 20:44 | 5177885 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

Cosmo Oil Refinery in Japan finally admits, 4 months later, that 765 KG of Uranium was burned into the atmosphere at the oil refinery fire in Japan following the March 11th earthquake and tsunami.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIry2jB9WE4

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 21:02 | 5177947 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

One word of advice for the Japanese: DON'T BOMB PEARL HARBOR NO MORE

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 07:18 | 5178942 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Japan is f@cked and has been f@cked for a very long time.

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2014/09/rising-rates-a-sure-bet/

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 21:12 | 5177968 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

And that's what they admit so the number should be take gram of hexafluoride, I mean a grain of sand. I didn't mean to infer that they were enriching. Oh no.

You accused us of proliferation and we said no, no, no.

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 22:29 | 5178226 bonin006
bonin006's picture

WTF is an oil refinery doing with Uranium?

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 23:08 | 5178342 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

COSMOS is probably the left hand of TEPCO, just a guess, I dunno.

 

In other news;

 

...we have been reduced to using "Cosmic Rays" to locate the (China Syndrome cough) melted cores of the Fukushima Nuclear Fission GE MK007 Death Reaper Power Plants.

Recently, a paper -  published  -  asserted thy melted nuclear cores have been detected near Buck Snort, Tennessee.

 

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS-Cosmic-rays-to-pinpoint-Fukushima-c...

 

 

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 20:44 | 5177886 caustixoid
caustixoid's picture

"we must reform our energy policies" = restart the reactors.   That should make up for an aging population, lack of innovation and overspending.  Sure.

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 20:46 | 5177889 max2205
max2205's picture

Shit hole

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 20:47 | 5177897 suteibu
suteibu's picture

Another "former" central planner complaining about the results without concern for the idiocy of central planning.

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 20:52 | 5177914 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Can't we start this chart after the " Marshal Plan"?

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 21:04 | 5177950 suteibu
suteibu's picture

The chart actually begins while the Japanese economy was under the control of the US and other Western powers.  It wasn't until 1878 that Japan was allowed to make economic decisions for itself.

From the NY Times, January 1, 1880:

Under a treaty made in 1866 with the United States, Great Britain, France, and Holland, Japan is practically deprived from regulating duties on imports and exports, and cannot even regulate her own coasting trade and port charges. All of these matters, so far as they concern the commerce of the treaty powers, being provided for in the treaty.

This was, perhaps, well enough when the treaty in question was made, but Japan has arrived as that state of moral and commercial importance among civilized nations when she should no longer be subjected to tutelage by older nations to whom she granted certain commercial advantages.

For several years the Government of Japan has been endeavoring to induce the treaty powers to abrogate those provisions of the treaty which deprive her of commercial freedom and control of her local commerce, but the jealousy of the treaty powers toward each other has frustrated her efforts in this direction.[...]

Finally, the United States yielded to the request of the Japanese Government, and a treaty was concluded at Washington on July 25, 1878, the first article of which annuls the objectionable provisions of the treaty of 1866, as well as certain objectionable provisions in the treaty of 1878.

In the treaty of 1878 it is declared:  ”That from the time this present convention shall take effect, the United States will recognize the exclusive power and right of the Japanese Government to adjust the Customs tariff and taxes and to establish regulations appertaining to foreign commerce in the open ports of Japan.”

[...] This treaty was negotiated as an act of justice toward Japan [...]

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 22:02 | 5178049 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Actually Sitebu you're completely full of shit!

  Here's why!

 The Marshall Plan (officially the European Recovery Program, ERP) was the American initiative to aid Europe, in which the United States gave $17 billion (approximately $160 billion in 2014 dollars) in economic support to help rebuild European economies after the end of World War II in order to prevent the spread of Soviet Communism.[1] The plan was in operation for four years beginning in April 1948.[2] The goals of the United States were to rebuild war-devastated regions, remove trade barriers, modernize industry, and make Europe prosperous again.[3] The phrase "equivalent of the Marshall Plan" is often used to describe a proposed large-scale rescue program.[4]

 Imagine this! The plan had bipartisan support in Washington, where the Republicans controlled Congress and the Democrats controlled the White House with Harry S. Truman as president.

  Where, in any sort of agreement or doctrine, do you see bilateral support for anything close to that level of understanding?

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 22:12 | 5178187 reader2010
reader2010's picture

But history says that money went directly to the true owners of MIC and Wall Street. 

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 00:19 | 5178543 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 History says it( the money) went to the rebuilding of Western Europe , who in turn was indentured to Wall Street.

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 22:27 | 5178224 suteibu
suteibu's picture

Whoa there, Yen. 

I made no comment either way about the Marshall plan which, to be honest, is irrelevant as regards Japan (the topic of the article).  I was merely commenting on the significance of the chart timeline and pointing out that modern Japan (post 1853 US invasion) has never been independent from the US and other Western powers, including leading up and and during the Pacific War.

Otherwise, what is your beef?

 

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 00:17 | 5178536 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 No beef. You Just went back almost (175) years prior to base your comparisons on. Japan was ruled by emperors in the 1850's'

 Perhaps this will help. I'm tired and need to get up in a few hours. Nothing personal.

A Short History of Japan: From 1850 to the Beginning of World War II

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 00:28 | 5178566 suteibu
suteibu's picture

Japan was ruled by shoguns, primarily the Tokugawa shogunate, throughout the EDO Period from 1603 until the Meiji Restoration of 1868 (after Perry's invasion of 1853 and the treaty of 1854) when the Emperor Meiji was "restored" to power over a united Japan.

Perhaps you should look into a longer version of the history of Japan.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 00:49 | 5178600 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Lets stick to the topic and time frame at hand. I'm always open to learning and love history. The article was 1850-current specific.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 02:55 | 5178738 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

Don't take it personally Suteibu.  Despite the moniker, YC knows less about Japanese history and economics than he does about diction and is wildly incoherent about 95% of the time (witness his shift to Marshall Plan (no relation to Japanese history) out of no where and 1850s emperors)

I'm glad to see someone else recognizes the importance of foriegn economic control to Japanese early modern history.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 08:51 | 5179270 suteibu
suteibu's picture

Yeah, thanks.  I was rather gobsmacked at where that exchange was going.

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 20:56 | 5177923 Odin McHaggis
Odin McHaggis's picture

When the music's over.   Turn out the light.

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 21:10 | 5177966 Unknown Poster
Unknown Poster's picture

1882: BOJ is formed to contain inflation.  Sure.

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 22:55 | 5178307 daveO
daveO's picture

1897, 2:1 yen to dollar - 1946, 360:1 with 317% YoY inflation.  War + central banks = death of currency.

Wed, 09/03/2014 - 21:24 | 5178036 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture
Seinfeld - Kramer tucking Japanese guests in drawers to sleep http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MtsOQz2I09g  / lol 
Thu, 09/04/2014 - 01:04 | 5178621 Notsobadwlad
Notsobadwlad's picture

In a single act, Abe betrayed an entire generation of Japanese and their sacrifice only to benefit of the globalist banks.

Given the odd natuer of the crisis, it makes one wonder whether Fukushima could have been a planned event by very evil forces, forcing Japan's compliance... "Abe".

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 02:59 | 5178742 Debugas
Debugas's picture

printing money is only useful when one has foreign trade surplus

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 06:31 | 5178881 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

When you introduce demographics into the picture we see that Japan is stuck with an aging and shrinking population that is evermore expensive for the government to provide for. Adding to its woes the Fukushima nuclear disaster has shuttered its nuclear power plants and forced the country to import more expensive energy alternatives.

Neither monetary nor fiscal policy will adequately solve Japan's problems. Continuing to run fiscal deficits only means that government debt is pushed onward and upwards leading to a variety of possible scenarios as to the what the end game will be. Simply put, the fundamentals for Japan are lousy. More on the downward path that Japan is on in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/japan-sliding-towards-abyss.html

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!