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Obviously Not A Bubble
Just two charts...
Via John Hussman... no bubble, no consequences...
and Via NewEdge's Brad Wishak... realized volatility has only been lower once since 2006...
* * *
Risk vs reward?
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Stop pumping the 'we're in a bubble' story Hussman. Jesus, you were harping on this back in January - how'd that work out?
It's a bubble until it isn't.....then I guess it is, or, will be, or.......not.......fuck it. forget what i just said. the contrarian contrarian doesn't make sense to me anymore. doubt it ever did.
The best way to not be a mark is to not play.
This might not be a bubble, this might be "it."
Good thing the FED still has all the tools it needs to deal with a contraction.
We have QE oozing out of every orfice like an Ebola patient. When this one pops so does the dollah.
pods
Looks like a six year cycle of the floor falling out...
But, but, but.... Now we all understand. It's a trampoline. Let's have some leveraged fun bitchez!
This thing's done such a fucking moon shot even a nasty 2008-style correction might not take us below 2007 highs.
Edit: The minute I posted that I immediately had a feeling I may live to regret saying it. Knock on wood. Anyone seen my lucky rabbit's foot?
This is going to end like it did for Robert Downey Jr. in Less than Zero.
Crazy Shade of Winter indeed.
Suzanna Hoffs was hot though. Those eyes.
pods
IF we are forming the head of a massive head and shoulders pattern the stock market and the stock traders are in for a LONG 10 years if not 20
It's OK to call a top, just make it well reasoned. I know it's hard to do with all the CB induced free money injected into the market but I think your 'merican market has another 600 S&P point to go before a significant reversal...
You were right -- it is like a trampoline -- only last time you came down you met the rebound of 300lb Uncle Benny after he jumped on from the roof.
Oh you didn't know? I thought you would know by now. They feed us well here. I'm roughly 150 kilo.....
I have an annunity for $100k and in the prospectus it says they can invest from time to time in derivitives. Do you think I should hang on to the $1650 a month payout or dump it and buy gold and silver?
Dump it, invest 50% in gold/silver/platinum/palladium, 50% in foreign currency accounts.
They have some CD accounts with decent interest rates for currencies other than the dollar.
I won't name names, but do some research, and you might be surprised.
We've finally reached the peak. The DOW ain't going much higher than 17,000. The question is when will it pop? For instance, if gas creeps over 4 dollars a gallon across the nation, will Yellen finally raise rates? Then the whole house of cards comes falling down.
Gas is going the other way, at least in TN. If the price of gas drops below $3.00 a gallon, will Yellen lower rates?
A. Doesn't matter. Rates are in the hands of the Chinese, Japanese and Mario Draghi. As long as European rates are low, he BOJ is buying every JGB that is not nailed down, and China keeps printing yuan, rates stay low, regardless of Ms. Yellen. The Fed is out of the game.
Trillion dollar Draghi. TDD! TDD! ...
You know what this shit is? I'll tell you what this shit is. It's the MFin' central bankster version of "Flight of Icarus" playing out in real life, and those dumbass bitches are so obsessed with taking it right into the sun that it won't be long before it all goes "poof", and the illusion of free lunches forever is dispelled, and all the sins have to be paid for. That's what this shit is.
Spend a couple hundred bucks to get a couple different opinions from real retirement financial advisors. Try to find advisers that aren't selling products. Some might try to get you to use (spend money) on their retirement products, but it will probably be better than listening to some ZHer's whim. Get a second and third opinion about your annuity, but only get out of your annuity if you are paying way too much in fees.
It is not bad to be diversified, i.e. have an annuity, a house, social security, a 401K or IRA, index funds, precious metals, etc.
If anything, do not move all into precious metals! If you can move a portion into PMs then go for it. 5% is normal, 10% is reasonable, a bit more is being agressive.
A financial reset may take place, but it doesn't have to. This dieing empire may writhe for decades before a collapse, or it might fall appart tomorrow. A new energy technology might herald in a century of growth and prosperity. You never know. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
Don't bet on the biggest calamity in history taking place in your lifetime, although it might. Work on building your financial stability in a calm and paced manner. Do not make rash decisions!
If we actually end up needing physical PM's in the future for survival, things are going to be FUBARed. A shotgun and a cook book on unorthodox meat might come in more handy. Sure buy a bit for an emergency, just in case, and stack when you can, but don't be rash. That is my two bits.
Just an aside ... the minute I heard pimps and shills on TV (pre-internet days) refer to financial plans, annuities etc. as "products" ... I knew we were screwed.
OK, carry on with playtime, kiddies.
Single-handedly the best advice that can be given. WE don't know, so be prepared for whatever. My side of it is to prepare for everything and lean more towards what you think will happen. Good luck and cheers!
"Suzanna Hoffs was hot though. Those eyes."
I have this image of Rosie Perez in White Men Can't Jump burned into my cranium! (http://www.strangecosmos.com/content/item/105681.html))
No but it will be full retard like in tropic thunder
Maybe the FED finally found a ballon that can just take all the hot air and expand to oblivion?
BREAKING NEWS: Study Finds FED Responsible for Climate Change
Will no longer be referred to as man-made, rather reptile-made. Fucking vipers.
FED also engineered the ebola virus. Bad news, it prints itself. Sorry about that, Liberia.
For those who believe the anthropogenic global warming doctrine, this is absolutely true as long as you include the entire Debt Money Monopoly class - the people who run the institutions that the Fed serves.
Money (debt; money **is** debt, folks) growth is directly correlated to human energy growth... energy is directly related to CO2, or so the orthodoxy claims.
Therefore, the Debt Money Monopoly is responsible for the climate change they claim is caused by human activity (they finance - they don't ever seem to mention this, suckas!) and they have the unmitigated gall to demand we pay them taxes (debt receipts leaving the debt behind to impoverish the masses!) for what they caused but they blame on us.
Then again, not one in 1000 people who believe the propaganda understands this truth.... ignorance is bliss... until it isn't.
PS - debt money isn't printed from nothing... it is printed based on society's (everyone ex the Debt Money Monopoly complex) obligation to pay literally inextinguishable debt.
That last part is extremely important and almost always overlooked by people who grasp on to the false alternative narrative financed by the Debt Money Monopoly through back channels.
Al... Relax dude...
Cause it really is a bubble this time.
Dear Headbanger:
Your Avatar is the grossest one that I've ever seen!!
Can you, at least, stop it before it loses its face? Just let it bleed a little!
Always a simple enough test:
Can it continue forever?
Yes: NOT a bubble
No: IS a bubble
Pretty hard to find ANYTHING that is NOT a bubble. As such that only leaves the question of duration....
Agree.
Duration is key.
To buy or sell, that is the question. Whether tis better to endure the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, etc.
Yes, but Bloomberg said this is a "rational bubble"...
(apply #sarc here)
Nope, wasn't a bubble in 2000, wasn't a bubble in 2007, not a bubble now. No crash coming (God, some people are so blind!) /s
Clearly the Fed will/can do a Volker and pump rates over 20%...easy peasy...
...sure it will destroy the country and the world economy but I think that is the plan...or what I thought I heard the Bernackle say...
The only honest thing we got from Bernanke was this quote ... "No rate normalization during my lifetime."
Learn it. Know it. Live it. ~ Brad Hamilton
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-17/bernanke-shocker-no-rate-normal...
His lifetime? That can be easily fixed.
This situation more aptly lends itself to Spicolli-isms:
"It's a way of looking at that wave and saying,'Hey bud, Let's party!' "
-or-
"My Dad's a TV repairman, he has the ultimate set of tools, I can fix it"
-or-
"That's my skull. I'm so wasted"
haha like and ebola patient. I like that. :-)
its all about teh jobs on friday....they will fudge those numbers too.
thanks tony great as always.
Batwing pattern on the DJIA too. => http://bit.ly/1fMcakI
Its about teh jobs numbers on friday, but that could be a whole run on teh algos too, set up for next week. that patern 100up 30 down and then 90-100 up could be playing out. That means we could be higher alot higher in the next few months. Xmas rally too maybe ?
WOPR concurs
A corollary: If you look around the table, and you can't decide who is the mark, you're the mark.
+1 Al.
One needs to be blind to not see the upside potential of the world war, famine and viral epidemics that dominate the news lately. My local economy is booming and all I see is green shoots everywhere I look for opportunities.
Define 'booming'?
Sales in agents orange, white and blue were booming during the Vietnam war...doesn't make it good for all the malformed babies.
Napalm made good margin too.
What's your town profiting from?
FEMA coffins?
Or perhaps sand wedges for idiotic, lying despotic puppets?
FFS differentiate yourself from TPTB so you can maintain a modicum of self-respect.
He's building strip malls in Ferguson
any new cigar stores
in the malls...
I miss Tobacco Bowl.
:(
Support your local indian smoke shop baby girl.
no one in so called "power" positions makes any noise about "audit the FED"..nada nothing..w/o any real oversight by the elected congress (don't blame me says the congress we did nothing wrong) card is always ready for congress to use. much like war powers (hey we never ok'd that) card.
SO Feds control of markets is unchallenged, policy of greenspan aka bernake aka yellen continues, the markets are for now bullet proof..so invest with them or stay out of the game.
spending less than you make can't hurt. keeping your equity out of markets that you know are fed controlled can't hurt.
Notice fast food workers are marching for more pay..keep an eye on that, some of the eyes wide shut crowd might just see somthin wrong with our nations wealth rip offs..greed and self interest can be a short cut to change and congress just might join them if it saves their skins. (long shot)
No, it's not a bubble.
It's a sharp stick in the eye.
Funny but it doesn't feel like it's in my eye.
Hang in there, pods, FEMA is working on it!
It got bigger...the BUBBLE that is.
Similar to the inevitable consequence...it's getting bigger too.
Let me know if this needs to be written in crayons and bigger letters...perhaps with a narrative from Big Bird...
Do it!
I remember watching a movie with my kids, not even Big Bird liked living with the Dodo Birds.
Great, now we can expect to have crayons banned, not to mention Big Bird outfits...
I think yours is a legitimate question. ZH and others post this, but it hasn't turned out.
Everyone should just be careful what they read and how that affects their behavior.
But, BUT... Knee-jerking is so much more exciting! Emotions always put a nice edge on things...
See what happens when you forget a sarc tag ?
Oohhhh...so you're the apologist for the genii incapable of using a sarc tag.
Puts you in a very special category...here have a dinner fork with a cork Ruprec...
Note: this comment stands for your pre-edited version.
I like people who don't use /sarc tags in their posts. You either get it or you don't, is my feeling.
Good point...the body language is obvious.
You might notice his avatar is facepalming. Like you said, it's obvious.
I think Al has the best avatar on the board, other than mine, of course. It fits his posting style perfectly. And I'm pretty sure that guy in the picture is having a deep, soul-crushing revelation. Like "My God, what have I done? I've ruined everything!"
Not to knock your avatar or anything, but Al's is not only great, but the person behind it does an exemplary job of matching his/her words with the avatar's namesake. I believe that the real Al Huxley would be pleased...
And back to the /s tags on this and other sites- Deadpan delivery is dead.
Long live deadpan delivery.
Agreed. Al's an integrated package and his game is tight. That's why I always read his posts when I come across them.
Don't forget, the Weimar stock market went up 500,000%.
The only trouble was inflation went up by 1,000,000%
Just sit tight. You ain't seen nothing yet!
If that's not an endorsement for buying more stawks, I don't know what is.
LONG "paper" (and ink)!
long TP
It's now a bigger bubble. the longer it goes, the less its going to work out for anyone.
Sooner or later the Stock Buybacks are going to tapper off. Companies have been on a borrowing binge to pay for their stock repurchases:
http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-buybacks-and-stock-prices-2014-8
"Another big source of cash for buybacks, however, has been debt. [C]ompanies have been borrowing like mad in recent years. And they have been using lots of the cash they borrow to buy back their stock. As corporations have borrowed more and more money, the level of corporate debt relative to the size of the economy has continued to increase. [T]his ratio is now at its highest level ever — even higher than it was in 2007, before the last debt-fueled economic implosion. Importantly, corporate net debt — the amount of debt that corporations are carrying minus the cash they have on hand (green line below) — is also at its highest level ever as a percent of the economy. "
That said It appears from the following article, Corp Stock repurchases increased:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-reasons-why-stock-buybacks-are-boomin...
"July had $55 billion in new buybacks announced, the most since April’s $56 billion total, according to TrimTabs data. That comes after worries about a drop in repurchase announcements in June. Buybacks announced so far in 2014 total about $300 billion, so this year is unlikely to top last year’s total of $669 billion, while also remaining less than the all-time record hit in 2007."
To me the notion of buy-backs has the look and feel of trying to exit the Wall Street casino. I once worked for a great (internationally recognized) company that was privately owned, which then went public, with the subsequent shake-ups (which did not threaten my position), in which case I can see why one might want to detach from the Wall Street "squid."
Sadly, benevolent actions are going to run into falling demand (less people able to afford stuff). I suppose that I'd rather step up and shut down a company than hand it over to a bunch of Wall Street sharks. But, that's just my opinion...
"To me the notion of buy-backs has the look and feel of trying to exit the Wall Street casino."
Probably not. The most likely use is so that employees (mainly executives) can cash out their stock options. Companies that want to go private do so without disclosing share buybacks in order to keep the price of the stock from jumping higher, making it more expensive to make the company private.
Share Holders like stock buybacks and generally support the board. Its sort of like handing out free stuff to voters so they keep on re-electing them. Its also much easier for the Board to please the stockholder with buybacks then it is to increase revenue. Making the company more profit takes effort. On the other hand Borrowing money for buybacks is very easy.
CISCO sends share prices up with buybacks and lays off 8% of workforce.
How's that for helping out the little guy, Janet?
So you're saying we're not in a bubble then? I don't believe that.
Brave New World
Revisited
Wow.. it is defferent this time.
No Woman no cry
It isn't a bubble. It's simply the greatest opportunity to make money ... ever.
Thanks ... but no thanks. I'm too busy hoarding.
Yeah bubbles are round shaped i seem to remember
...so keep piling in until it goes bubble shaped is my tip
Lol...
Punting my last leveraged investment (condo). Flipping second consective condo purchase in Brooklyn in less than 4 years. Made $425,000 (net of all fees) on $100,000 initial invested capital. Not even including the ~$30,000 or so in tax deductions.
Bubble...??
Of course not. Totally sustainable.
My question is what will the "consequence" look like this time in terms of S&P? Based on yesterday's story, it looks like there will be Cypress-style haircuts/bail-ins in Canada.
According to several sources, Einstein never said "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results." so I think we're okay!
http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2014/03/9-albert-einstein-quotes-that-are-totally-fake/
Ever hear of the parable of the Bug and the Windshield?
Tylers just jelly they didn't see the tripling of the S&P since 2009. Instead they went for gold... oops! Next stop for the yellow metal looks like 3 digits.
900 bucks is the call.
We'll see.
Silver looks like a bargain here. US Steel has had a huge rally as well. "Not good for peace."
Please remind me how much silver in a cruise missle? I seem to remember reading 5 lbs (2.25 Kg) somewhere.
I thought I had seen it written that its equal to a monster box or around 500 ounces but that is a helluva lot of silver so don't take my word for it
You will be too late to get out. And too late to get in.
eyes wide shut.
Land, running water (creek), animals, 200ft well w/hand pump, guns, silver, wood, shelter. Wild berries, walnuts, and some seeds for grow....flowers. I think Im good, even got my Berky water filter recently. Long 40 acres and a mule, bitchez.
Hey! Quit snooping around my place! :-)
Actually, extraction from my well is a bit easier (40'): I have a non-recognized water flow, which keeps me from being on the enviro watch list. Any my "mule" is my tractor...
so you also noticed that you can't hand pump water up from 200 feet...
Havent noticed, thanks for the heads up though.
http://www.survivalunlimited.com/waterpumps/sppricelist.htm
Simplepump.Have one going on 6 years...good pump and .....simple!
Megaphone Pattern Bitches.
Hey, who snuck that little grey down-arrow onto the chart? Erase that, post-haste!
Saying that your market is in a "bubble" implies that there is a market for true price discovery.
There isn't. So just stop being silly.
The market kept pulling us back but now we've reached escape velocity. To infinity and beyond! We're going plaid and all that rot.
Holy shit NSA! Get out of my business and stop messing with the private messages from the ladies.
market top is being formed...it's oh so quiet until...
a big one is coming, but i don't know if it's the big one.
the key question: will the circuit breakers trip at a level whereupon a new and improved system can emerge from the ashes of the current one's failure?
buy 'em!
I'm going long molotov cocktails.
I'm long squiggley lines.
I've read conflicting statements as to the size of the City Russia is attacking...500-800,000. What news I have read that has been confirmed by other sources says "they're digging in like its World War I."
I imagine it is called "Operation Trident" for a reason as well...land, sea and air...also a nuclear reference in that.
Kiev is a long way...from anywhere.
The population will be a lot lower when they are done with the attack.
Of course the statements are conflicting, Russia ISN'T attacking, in which case the "sources" can make up whatever the fuck they want.
Dont forget a blow torch, most people forget the blow torch.
Hey, what happened to the Fed mandat of price stability? I guess the new mandate is to bait the masses with higher prices before pulling the rug out?
Oh Abby, Abby, Abby Cohen. You are pissing off the revolution!
This is part of obviously a larger trend. Sure it will go down but get in and stay in and wait for the next even bigger bubble. The market loves bubbles as they create the buying opportunities. BTFD and buy it all the way down. Market prices in decline indicates people losing money and when people lose money someone else finds it. This is fleecing, harvesting, shaking down the muppets. Too bad everyone can't do it. Easy money, no moral conundrum there.
It's a bubble when the fucking thing goes parabolic in the short term and everybody trips over themselves to get in with whatever last pennies they have. This is just a slow grind bull market. Of course it has no rhyme or reason, when has that ever mattered in the market?
Is it ok to say, "slow grind" and "bull" in the same sentence on this forum?
But Al, if you step back there's no doubting that this is ALL parabolic: http://www.resilience.org/stories/2008-06-24/olduvai-theory-and-catastro...
I DO believe that it has a reason, and that reason is that of keeping "growth" "in there" such that all the pensions and whatnot don't contract and take out massive amounts of contracts. There is NO reason when comparing to the past, but when viewing in the context of NOW, with the lack of growth (and TPTB are more than aware that we're at the end of a super-cycle), the actions make perfect sense. Mind you, in the long-run it does nothing, but, as Daniel Quinn puts it (in the movie What a Way To Go"):
Well - QE has been dropping. We can just crank it back up to 11 right? Problem = solved.
Aim high! Go for 12!
"Pop goes the weasel cuz the weasel goes pop?"
It's not a bubble until it pops.........and then it's not a bubble anymore.
I'm going to keep shorting everything like I have been since 2008 on ZH advice.
For being here 37 weeks you sure seem to not be paying attention. Most posters, at least not hte paid shills, have said shorting means getting shartted. Ain't worth it with the leverage and monetary machinations the Fed is supplying.
<sarc on> no doubt, or you're speaking in tongues.
Clearly you have difficulties thinking with your own brain. Too bad about that.
The info here, which you have to read between the lines (just like one does from info put out by TPTB), really does give good inputs as to how one should "invest" for the future. Anyone looking for short-term gains deserves al the failures that such will bring...
glossolalia,
You're taking investment advice from an internet news forum?
Are you just slightly retarded, or a full-blown drooln' winkee?
glossolia:
You are doing the right thing! Click below for more advice:
http://www.glossolia.ng
as long as corporate profits continue to rise
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP
and corporate stock buyback surges
http://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/buyback/buyback_6.18.14
trend should continue
But
tick tock tick tock tick tock .....
The Public Be Suckered
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1223928
I don't imagine that there's a genuinely connected speculator (the term, "investors", has been removed from the OED, Merriam's and Webster's and is no longer considered a word in Scrabble) that got in early 2008 and continued to average up, that hasn't also offset a goodly portion of the risk of a black swan with portfolio insurance.
That in itself is a major stumbling block to a severe decline. We are talking paper assets here, no longer tethered to antediluvian concepts like P/E, Sales, ROI, EBITDA, and market share.
Comparisons of one chart to another, if only speculating were that simple, to make Latte money, is useless.
Until one day it actually works.
In the end they'll just do what they do with banks they can't save. Two markets; one for good equities and one for shit equities.
Those who are with us, and those that aren't (FEMA camp)...
How to position yourself as a "smart person who knows the future":
1. take a chart of something (e.g. a price or index)
2. find a pattern in the chart
3. say something vague but ominous
Never point out that you were wrong in the past or that your scare tactics are designed to make people send you money so you can take your fees to "manage". And NEVER point out your sub-optimal returns.
Past performance does not equal future results, nuff' said.
That's what Hussman's investors whimper to themselves when they get their account statements. But oddly enough, Hussman himself is essentially saying/writing that the future *will* look like the past.
IT'S JUST NOISE!!
This time it is different because
... because this time is really different. Got it? Buy stocks now.
This fucking market is an example of a bubble in the same way the WTC towers were examples of spontaneous building collapse - it's not even a market, it's a movie about the market, and being long or short is like betting on how the fucking movie's going to end where the guy taking the other side of the bet is the one who made the fucking movie.
You're describing the scenario regarding TIPS where the government issuing them gets to define "inflation"
Just more vaporub....
Bubbles are for pessimists.
Fuck these muppets.
Guys, get over it. There is no way they will ever let this correction happen while Obama is in the white house. They will print Trillions upon Trillions and hand it out by the EBT truckload.
His policies have to succeed no matter how bad they fail.
Becuase the next guy or gal will let it fall on his or her watch.
These fucking squids have taken over the whole of Vichey DC.
Burn motherfucker Burn
3rd time is the charm comrades! It's different this time. It is, really.
Left out some data. Between 1985 and 1999 stock market rose 250 percent. Between 2000 and 2014 it went up 55 percent. What bubble? We aren't even close to be a bubble we have another 200 percent to go.
Target S&P 500 - 3571 by 2024.
Problem is diversification of markets. All capitol needs to be allocated to USA Markets and away from the rest of the world.
Stocks are cheap, PE of 100+ is the new normal. The FED can just print wealth. Enjoy!
An ounce of gold is still an ounce of gold. I sleep better than I ever did with any paper "investment".
Can someone explain the dollar almost at 84?
This is the same diarhetic dribble we've been hearing for five years. Sure, these fucktards will eventually be correct, but until then they are helping you lose money.
A bubble is only a bubble at the moment that it pops. Until then, it is an investment opportunity.
It is not a bubble. It is WWIII. Numerous fronts are being fought. Nobody has been brought to justice on the side of the NWO and millions have been killed on the people's side.
BTFATH. Don't fight the FED. It works if you work it. YeeeeeeHaaaaaaa bitchez, Obama is going to fucking protect you.