Obviously Not A Bubble

Tyler Durden's picture

Just two charts...

Via John Hussman... no bubble, no consequences...


and Via NewEdge's Brad Wishak... realized volatility has only been lower once since 2006...


*  *  *

Risk vs reward?

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Al Huxley's picture

Stop pumping the 'we're in a bubble' story Hussman.  Jesus, you were harping on this back in January - how'd that work out?

Pareto's picture

It's a bubble until it isn't.....then I guess it is, or, will be, or.......not.......fuck it.  forget what i just said.  the contrarian contrarian doesn't make sense to me anymore.  doubt it ever did.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

The best way to not be a mark is to not play. 

pods's picture

This might not be a bubble, this might be "it."

Good thing the FED still has all the tools it needs to deal with a contraction.

We have QE oozing out of every orfice like an Ebola patient.  When this one pops so does the dollah.


Dr. Richard Head's picture

Looks like a six year cycle of the floor falling out...

Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

But, but, but.... Now we all understand. It's a trampoline. Let's have some leveraged fun bitchez!

NoDebt's picture

This thing's done such a fucking moon shot even a nasty 2008-style correction might not take us below 2007 highs.

Edit:  The minute I posted that I immediately had a feeling I may live to regret saying it.  Knock on wood.  Anyone seen my lucky rabbit's foot?

pods's picture

This is going to end like it did for Robert Downey Jr. in Less than Zero.

Crazy Shade of Winter indeed. 

Suzanna Hoffs was hot though. Those eyes.


I MISS KUDLOW's picture

IF we are forming the head of a massive head and shoulders pattern the stock market and the stock traders are in for a LONG 10 years if not 20

Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

It's OK to call a top, just make it well reasoned. I know it's hard to do with all the CB induced free money injected into the market but I think your 'merican market has another 600 S&P point to go before a significant reversal...

Bastiat's picture


You were right -- it is like a trampoline -- only last time you came down you met the rebound of 300lb Uncle Benny after he jumped on from the roof. 

Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Oh you didn't know? I thought you would know by now. They feed us well here. I'm roughly 150 kilo.....

indygo55's picture

I have an annunity for $100k and in the prospectus it says they can invest from time to time in derivitives. Do you think I should hang on to the $1650 a month payout or dump it and buy gold and silver?



TVP's picture

Dump it, invest 50% in gold/silver/platinum/palladium, 50% in foreign currency accounts.


They have some CD accounts with decent interest rates for currencies other than the dollar.   


I won't name names, but do some research, and you might be surprised.

Drunk In Church's picture

We've finally reached the peak.  The DOW ain't going much higher than 17,000.  The question is when will it pop?  For instance, if gas creeps over 4 dollars a gallon across the nation, will Yellen finally raise rates?  Then the whole house of cards comes falling down.

Redneck Hippy's picture

Gas is going the other way, at least in TN.  If the price of gas drops below $3.00 a gallon, will Yellen lower rates?

A. Doesn't matter.  Rates are in the hands of the Chinese, Japanese and Mario Draghi.  As long as European rates are low,  he BOJ is buying every JGB that is not nailed down, and China keeps printing yuan, rates stay low, regardless of Ms. Yellen.  The Fed is out of the game.

Taku's picture

Trillion dollar Draghi. TDD! TDD! ...

eclectic syncretist's picture

You know what this shit is?  I'll tell you what this shit is.  It's the MFin' central bankster version of "Flight of Icarus" playing out in real life, and those dumbass bitches are so obsessed with taking it right into the sun that it won't be long before it all goes "poof", and the illusion of free lunches forever is dispelled, and all the sins have to be paid for.  That's what this shit is.

reset71's picture

Spend a couple hundred bucks to get a couple different opinions from real retirement financial advisors.  Try to find advisers that aren't selling products.  Some might try to get you to use (spend money) on their retirement products, but it will probably be better than listening to some ZHer's whim.   Get a second and third opinion about your annuity, but only get out of your annuity if you are paying way too much in fees.  

It is not bad to be diversified, i.e. have an annuity, a house, social security, a 401K or IRA, index funds, precious metals, etc.  

If anything, do not move all into precious metals!  If you can move a portion into PMs then go for it.  5% is normal, 10% is reasonable, a bit more is being agressive.

A financial reset may take place, but it doesn't have to.  This dieing empire may writhe for decades before a collapse, or it might fall appart tomorrow.  A new energy technology might herald in a century of growth and prosperity.  You never know.  Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

Don't bet on the biggest calamity in history taking place in your lifetime, although it might.  Work on building your financial stability in a calm and paced manner.  Do not make rash decisions!

If we actually end up needing physical PM's in the future for survival, things are going to be FUBARed. A shotgun and a cook book on unorthodox meat might come in more handy.  Sure buy a bit for an emergency, just in case, and stack when you can, but don't be rash.  That is my two bits.

Liquid Courage's picture

Just an aside ... the minute I heard pimps and shills on TV (pre-internet days) refer to financial plans, annuities etc. as "products" ... I knew we were screwed.

OK, carry on with playtime, kiddies.

Anca1's picture

Single-handedly the best advice that can be given.  WE don't know, so be prepared for whatever.  My side of it is to prepare for everything and lean more towards what you think will happen.  Good luck and cheers!

Seer's picture

"Suzanna Hoffs was hot though. Those eyes."

I have this image of Rosie Perez in White Men Can't Jump burned into my cranium! (http://www.strangecosmos.com/content/item/105681.html))

stant's picture

No but it will be full retard like in tropic thunder

demoses's picture

Maybe the FED finally found a ballon that can just take all the hot air and expand to oblivion?

Trucker Glock's picture

BREAKING NEWS:  Study Finds FED Responsible for Climate Change

Will no longer be referred to as man-made, rather reptile-made.  Fucking vipers.

Redneck Hippy's picture

FED also engineered the ebola virus.  Bad news, it prints itself.  Sorry about that, Liberia.

All Risk No Reward's picture

For those who believe the anthropogenic global warming doctrine, this is absolutely true as long as you include the entire Debt Money Monopoly class - the people who run the institutions that the Fed serves.

Money (debt; money **is** debt, folks) growth is directly correlated to human energy growth...  energy is directly related to CO2, or so the orthodoxy claims.

Therefore, the Debt Money Monopoly is responsible for the climate change they claim is caused by human activity (they finance - they don't ever seem to mention this, suckas!) and they have the unmitigated gall to demand we pay them taxes (debt receipts leaving the debt behind to impoverish the masses!) for what they caused but they blame on us.

Then again, not one in 1000 people who believe the propaganda understands this truth....  ignorance is bliss...  until it isn't.

PS - debt money isn't printed from nothing... it is printed based on society's (everyone ex the Debt Money Monopoly complex) obligation to pay literally inextinguishable debt.

That last part is extremely important and almost always overlooked by people who grasp on to the false alternative narrative financed by the Debt Money Monopoly through back channels.

Headbanger's picture

Al... Relax dude...

Cause it really is a bubble this time.

orez65's picture

Dear Headbanger:

Your Avatar is the grossest one that I've ever seen!!

Can you, at least, stop it before it loses its face? Just let it bleed a little!

Seer's picture

Always a simple enough test:

Can it continue forever?

 Yes: NOT a bubble

 No: IS a bubble

Pretty hard to find ANYTHING that is NOT a bubble.  As such that only leaves the question of duration....

Redneck Hippy's picture


Duration is key.

To buy or sell, that is the question.  Whether tis better to endure the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, etc.

sdmjake's picture

Yes, but Bloomberg said this is a "rational bubble"...

(apply #sarc here)



Stormtrooper's picture

Nope, wasn't a bubble in 2000, wasn't a bubble in 2007, not a bubble now.  No crash coming (God, some people are so blind!) /s

lasvegaspersona's picture

Clearly the Fed will/can do a Volker and pump rates over 20%...easy peasy...

...sure it will destroy the country and the world economy but I think that is the plan...or what I thought I heard the Bernackle say...

Ness.'s picture

The only honest thing we got from Bernanke was this quote ... "No rate normalization during my lifetime."


Learn it.  Know it.  Live it.  ~ Brad Hamilton




KnuckleDragger-X's picture

His lifetime? That can be easily fixed.

sdmjake's picture

This situation more aptly lends itself to Spicolli-isms:

"It's a way of looking at that wave and saying,'Hey bud, Let's party!' "


"My Dad's a TV repairman, he has the ultimate set of tools, I can fix it"


"That's my skull. I'm so wasted"


Lets Buy The Dip's picture

haha like and ebola patient. I like that. :-)

its all about teh jobs on friday....they will fudge those  numbers too. 

thanks tony great as always.

Batwing pattern on the DJIA too. => http://bit.ly/1fMcakI

Its about teh jobs numbers on friday, but that could be a whole run on teh algos too, set up for next week. that patern 100up 30 down and then 90-100 up could be playing out. That means we could be higher alot higher in the next few months. Xmas rally too maybe ?

Redneck Hippy's picture

A corollary:  If you look around the table, and you can't decide who is the mark, you're the mark.

Zirpedge's picture

+1 Al. 

One needs to be blind to not see the upside potential of the world war, famine and viral epidemics that dominate the news lately. My local economy is booming and all I see is green shoots everywhere I look for opportunities. 

Dame Ednas Possum's picture

Define 'booming'?

Sales in agents orange, white and blue were booming during the Vietnam war...doesn't make it good for all the malformed babies.

Napalm made good margin too.

What's your town profiting from?

FEMA coffins?

Or perhaps sand wedges for idiotic, lying despotic puppets?

FFS differentiate yourself from TPTB so you can maintain a modicum of self-respect.

walküre's picture

He's building strip malls in Ferguson

mt paul's picture

any new cigar stores

in the malls...

Zirpedge's picture

Support your local indian smoke shop baby girl.

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

no one in so called "power" positions makes any noise about "audit the FED"..nada nothing..w/o any real oversight by the elected congress (don't blame me says the congress  we did nothing wrong) card is always ready for congress to use. much like war powers (hey we never ok'd that) card.

SO Feds control of markets is unchallenged, policy of greenspan aka bernake aka yellen continues, the markets are for now bullet proof..so invest with them or stay out of the game.

spending less than you make can't hurt. keeping your equity out of markets that you know are fed controlled can't hurt.

Notice fast food workers are marching for more pay..keep an eye on that, some of the eyes wide shut crowd might just see somthin wrong with our nations wealth rip offs..greed and self interest can be a short cut to change and congress just might join them if it saves their skins. (long shot)

dead hobo's picture

No, it's not a bubble.


It's a sharp stick in the eye.

pods's picture

Funny but it doesn't feel like it's in my eye.

Seer's picture

Hang in there, pods, FEMA is working on it!