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The US Housing 'Recovery' In 1 Chart
Context is king. Week-in, week-out, we are reassured by whoever the next talking-head is that the recovery-meme is alive-and-well (despite consensus GDP expectations continued to slide for 2014), and that housing is back. The fact that mortage applications inched 0.2% higher on the week (as mortgage rates briefly dropped below 4% for a day - back at 4.20% now) is extrapolated into full recovery when the following chart perhaps provides a little clearer picture of just what has happened in this 'recovery'.
As Bloomberg's Rich Yamarone notes,
Most of the recent strength in housing and construction has been in the multi-unit category; first time home buyers are dealing with lofty college loan burdens and lackluster real incomes, which makes purchasing a big ticket item like a house difficult.
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But don't let the facts (or NAHB's hope) get in the way of perceived reality
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"Stop with the the negative vibes, Moriarty"
Housing starts might be one of the few charts that shows the truth about the "economic recovery", despite the fact it's been posted so many times on ZH we're completely sick of seeing it.
Hammered to the floor and staying on the floor. Tell me that doesn't line up about right with most people's experience.
Exactly and tomorrow the headlines read dow jumps gold sinks and the dollar is king again! So tired of the manipulation and the semi truth I just puked
Bossman1967,
I am going to have to warn you before you become very ill of all the coming lies.
We’re finished. We, Americans, don’t have the resources, because we used most of it.
@Bossman67..."because we used most of it"
Ha ha, seriously? Not because inefficient energy use and technological suppression?
Why are all the new engines and products made worse than ever? Nothing is desigend to last. Lightbulbs, housepaint, every godamn thing.
Forget the broken window fallacy. Why hasn't ZH focused on inefficinet regulations and patent laws that destroy innovation? Which is far worse than covert inflation and onerous taxes to support boondoggles both foreign and domestic.
"beause we used most of it" WTF are you talking about? ZH and tylers step the f up
Zirpedge: Ha ha, seriously?
Firstly: We did use the best coal (Anthracite) and the most and easiest conventional oil, in America. Fracking is not oil, it’s kerosene.
Secondly: Germany, a very innovating nation. World’s largest in technology and efficiency, that banned US light bulbs, after teen years of renewable innovation, and that 35% of energy comes from renewable, still had to back to coal.
Open pit coal mines, so they can use more and more heavy machineries, to offset the coal decline.
Thirdly: The only reason US fracking, as well as shale gas, are working, it’s because of financial engineering. Oil barrel would have to go to about $137 dollars. Gas prices would have to double from the average $4 dollars we are paying now.
You two sound like your arguing about whats worse, a kick in the balls or a punch in the mouth.
No, we are not!
Zirpedge is leading us to believe that if we can just make those changes, these issues will work itself.
What we are about to face, it something without precedent.
Fucking Hovnanian CEO was on Cramer chirping about how strong "housing" was and the "recovery" is here.
More than likely multi-unit and retirement home construction, and they're probably leveraged to the hilt.
Death of the middle class, growth of the rentier class; your rent is overdue - SERF!
This country is such a fucking Ponzi scheme, J.H.C. it makes me so mad!
Most Yutes cannot afford a house, and the ones who can afford it have wised up to the overpriced scam, huge transactions costs, illiquidity, high property taxes, insurance, maintenance, and on and on of owning a house.
Yutes are somewhat wising up to the RE scammers.
You really shouldn't watch Cramer as he causes severe brain rot, worse even than Barney the dinosaur....
There has never benn a better time to buy...and sell for that matter.
Isn't that what they always say?
Not much different than your financial instrument "pusher".
WOOF!
Housing?
This jig is up since 2007!
Shayuddup Gaddafi
Really??
I turned $100k into over $450k (plus tax deductions) between 2011 and now (closing on sale of second consecutive purchase in a few weeks). I am not 1% by any stretch of imagination, but lucky enough to have skin in the game.
It's just musical chairs.... don't want to be the last one standing.....
After this, I'm out. Will be watching the destruction from my farm in Costa Rica... :)
Well, good because it is all about *you*. As soon as you leave, we will all go back to hanging on our hooks waiting for the next really interesting person to appear,,,
Yeah, OddBall,,,do think the bridge will still be there?
So I'm just wondering, what happens when demand for 30 year mortgage's drop? Which they did with about 38% do to cash and institutional buyers.
Shh you're spoiling Tyler's narrative.
Shift to 50 year mortgages, similar to Spanish 50 year bonds. Probably a better chance of getting full payment.
When you have mobile and a car you do not need a house. You can live in facebook.
Nah, I don't like Facebook, so I live in Twitter and use public restrooms.
For what?
Bad idea asking that ;-)
"When you have mobile and a car you do not need a house. You can live in facebook."
Name one poster here at ZH stupid enough to have a facebook account. Just one.
I rest my case.
It's Thursday night. Do you know where your recovery is?
The recession started in '07. That's 7 years for you folks keeping score at home.
Depression. Recession we would have been out of long ago.
Come on! Economic recovery is so yesterday. Now we have Obamacare which is better than money (if you have none) and I think instead of careers and paychecks and Christmas bonuses, we all get gold stars to paste into our Obama scrapbook. Jobs and paychecks remind us too much of ugly competition, where as a gold star, now that is something we can treasure for a lifetime. And depression is just a smile turned upside down, and big pharma has a pill for that, and it also qualifies you for disability...WINNING!
What's that in dog years?
@HulkHogan
You sure it wasn't 2000?
seriously, 2000 to 2007 was no good for anyone not in construction, real-estate, or finance
MIC did pretty well.
@TulsaTime
How timely. I was just listening to Eric Clapton and Sheryl Crow doing Livin' on Tulsa Time. Great song, great handle. You're right about everything since 2000. If you haven't been in a Fed-subsidized sector, it's been hard times.
Just wiped my ass with it
"It's Thursday night. Do you know where your recovery is?"
If you live in Seattle, that would be the Seahawks, ones couch and plenty of junk food.
The Federal Reserve keeps on giving to the 1% and taking from the 99%. Until there is nothing left to take.
Maybe there should only be one question.
Follow the QE to Europe or not? Buy Spain, Italy, Greek or German markets?
Or does it finally stop working soon?
I think one could argue it would be a good idea to buy a few calls in these markets just to speculate with less than a few percent of a portfolio.
It's recovering because that's the new "normal"...
It's the infamous "Hockey Stick"!
Haven't seen it in a while, the blade seems to get longer though.
Restart the tax credits.