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The US Housing 'Recovery' In 1 Chart

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Context is king. Week-in, week-out, we are reassured by whoever the next talking-head is that the recovery-meme is alive-and-well (despite consensus GDP expectations continued to slide for 2014), and that housing is back. The fact that mortage applications inched 0.2% higher on the week (as mortgage rates briefly dropped below 4% for a day - back at 4.20% now) is extrapolated into full recovery when the following chart perhaps provides a little clearer picture of just what has happened in this 'recovery'.

 

 

As Bloomberg's Rich Yamarone notes,

Most of the recent strength in housing and construction has been in the multi-unit category; first time home buyers are dealing with lofty college loan burdens and lackluster real incomes, which makes purchasing a big ticket item like a house difficult.

*  *  *

But don't let the facts (or NAHB's hope) get in the way of perceived reality

 

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Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:07 | 5182756 knukles
knukles's picture

"Stop with the the negative vibes, Moriarty"

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:17 | 5182803 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Housing starts might be one of the few charts that shows the truth about the "economic recovery", despite the fact it's been posted so many times on ZH we're completely sick of seeing it.

Hammered to the floor and staying on the floor.   Tell me that doesn't line up about right with most people's experience.

 

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:22 | 5182835 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

Exactly and tomorrow the headlines read dow jumps gold sinks and the dollar is king again! So tired of the manipulation and the semi truth I just puked

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:31 | 5182866 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

Bossman1967,

I am going to have to warn you before you become very ill of all the coming lies.

We’re finished. We, Americans, don’t have the resources, because we used most of it.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 23:33 | 5183175 Zirpedge
Zirpedge's picture

@Bossman67..."because we used most of it"

Ha ha, seriously? Not because inefficient energy use and technological suppression?

Why are all the new engines and products made worse than ever? Nothing is desigend to last. Lightbulbs, housepaint, every godamn thing.

Forget the broken window fallacy. Why hasn't ZH focused on inefficinet regulations and patent laws that destroy innovation? Which is far worse than covert inflation and onerous taxes to support boondoggles both foreign and domestic.

"beause we used most of it" WTF are you talking about? ZH and tylers step the f up

 

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 07:24 | 5183590 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

Zirpedge: Ha ha, seriously?

Firstly: We did use the best coal (Anthracite) and the most and easiest conventional oil, in America. Fracking is not oil, it’s kerosene.

Secondly: Germany, a very innovating nation. World’s largest in technology and efficiency, that banned US light bulbs, after teen years of renewable innovation, and that 35% of energy comes from renewable, still had to back to coal.

Open pit coal mines, so they can use more and more heavy machineries, to offset the coal decline.

Thirdly: The only reason US fracking, as well as shale gas, are working, it’s because of financial engineering. Oil barrel would have to go to about $137 dollars. Gas prices would have to double from the average $4 dollars we are paying now.

 

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 09:48 | 5184164 newdoobie
newdoobie's picture

You two sound like your arguing about whats worse, a kick in the balls or a punch in the mouth.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 13:39 | 5185458 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

No, we are not!

Zirpedge is leading us to believe that if we can just make those changes, these issues will work itself.

What we are about to face, it something without precedent.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:54 | 5182949 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Fucking Hovnanian CEO was on Cramer chirping about how strong "housing" was and the "recovery" is here.

More than likely multi-unit and retirement home construction, and they're probably leveraged to the hilt.

Death of the middle class, growth of the rentier class; your rent is overdue - SERF!

This country is such a fucking Ponzi scheme, J.H.C. it makes me so mad!

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 22:08 | 5182998 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Most Yutes cannot afford a house, and the ones who can afford it have wised up to the overpriced scam, huge transactions costs, illiquidity, high property taxes, insurance, maintenance, and on and on of owning a house.

Yutes are somewhat wising up to the RE scammers.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 23:25 | 5183152 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

You really shouldn't watch Cramer as he causes severe brain rot, worse even than Barney the dinosaur....

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 00:36 | 5183296 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

There has never benn a better time to buy...and sell for that matter.

Isn't that what they always say?

Not much different than your financial instrument "pusher".

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:17 | 5182814 himaroid
himaroid's picture

WOOF!

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:23 | 5182839 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

Housing?

 

This jig is up since 2007!

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 23:35 | 5183182 Zirpedge
Zirpedge's picture

Shayuddup Gaddafi

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 09:56 | 5184195 Farmer Joe in B...
Farmer Joe in Brooklyn's picture

Really??

I turned $100k into over $450k (plus tax deductions) between 2011 and now (closing on sale of second consecutive purchase in a few weeks).  I am not 1% by any stretch of imagination, but lucky enough to have skin in the game.

It's just musical chairs.... don't want to be the last one standing.....

After this, I'm out.  Will be watching the destruction from my farm in Costa Rica... :)

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 11:43 | 5184817 Skiprrrdog
Skiprrrdog's picture

Well, good because it is all about *you*. As soon as you leave, we will all go back to hanging on our hooks waiting for the next really interesting person to appear,,,

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 22:36 | 5183054 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

Yeah, OddBall,,,do think the bridge will still be there?

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:07 | 5182762 starman
starman's picture

So I'm just wondering, what happens when demand for 30 year mortgage's drop? Which they did with about 38% do to cash and institutional buyers.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:11 | 5182783 evokanivo
evokanivo's picture

Shh you're spoiling Tyler's narrative.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:21 | 5182834 Stormtrooper
Stormtrooper's picture

Shift to 50 year mortgages, similar to Spanish 50 year bonds.  Probably a better chance of getting full payment.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:08 | 5182766 Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

When you have mobile and a car you do not need a house.  You can live in facebook.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:51 | 5182939 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Nah, I don't like Facebook, so I live in Twitter and use public restrooms.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 22:38 | 5183059 toady
toady's picture

For what?

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 23:28 | 5183156 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Bad idea asking that  ;-)

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 00:10 | 5183257 European American
European American's picture

"When you have mobile and a car you do not need a house.  You can live in facebook."

 

Name one poster here at ZH stupid enough to have a facebook account. Just one. 

 

I rest my case.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:09 | 5182768 knukles
knukles's picture

It's Thursday night.  Do you know where your recovery is?

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:13 | 5182789 HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

The recession started in '07. That's 7 years for you folks keeping score at home.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:17 | 5182812 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Depression.  Recession we would have been out of long ago.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 00:44 | 5183304 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Come on! Economic recovery is so yesterday. Now we have Obamacare which is better than money (if you have none) and I think instead of careers and paychecks and Christmas bonuses, we all get gold stars to paste into our Obama scrapbook. Jobs and paychecks remind us too much of ugly competition, where as a gold star, now that is something we can treasure for a lifetime. And depression is just a smile turned upside down, and big pharma has a pill for that, and it also qualifies you for disability...WINNING!

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:20 | 5182823 skank
skank's picture

What's that in dog years?

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:47 | 5182922 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@HulkHogan

You sure it wasn't 2000?

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:59 | 5182967 TulsaTime
TulsaTime's picture

seriously, 2000 to 2007 was no good for anyone not in construction, real-estate, or finance

 

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 22:02 | 5182975 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

MIC did pretty well.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 22:06 | 5182988 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@TulsaTime

How timely.  I was just listening to Eric Clapton and Sheryl Crow doing Livin' on Tulsa Time.  Great song, great handle.  You're right about everything since 2000.  If you haven't been in a Fed-subsidized sector, it's been hard times. 

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:23 | 5182841 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

Just wiped my ass with it

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 00:12 | 5183261 European American
European American's picture

"It's Thursday night.  Do you know where your recovery is?"

 

If you live in Seattle, that would be the Seahawks, ones couch and plenty of junk food.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:22 | 5182837 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The Federal Reserve keeps on giving to the 1% and taking from the 99%. Until there is nothing left to take.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 21:22 | 5182838 fed_depression
fed_depression's picture

Maybe there should only be one question.

Follow the QE to Europe or not? Buy Spain, Italy, Greek or German markets?

Or does it finally stop working soon?

I think one could argue it would be a good idea to buy a few calls in these markets just to speculate with less than a few percent of a portfolio.

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 22:07 | 5182996 yellowsub
yellowsub's picture

It's recovering because that's the new "normal"...

Thu, 09/04/2014 - 22:44 | 5183072 Joe_in_Indiana
Joe_in_Indiana's picture

It's the infamous "Hockey Stick"!

 

Haven't seen it in a while, the blade seems to get longer though.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 05:04 | 5183501 firestarter_916
firestarter_916's picture

Restart the tax credits.

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