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16 Stunning Quotes From Global Health Officials On The Ebola Epidemic
Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,
Ebola continues to spread an an exponential rate. According to the World Health Organization, 40 percent of all Ebola cases have happened in just the last three weeks. At this point, the official numbers tell us that approximately 3,967 people have gotten the virus in Africa and more than 2,105 people have died.
That is quite alarming, but the real problem will arise if this disease continues to spread at an exponential pace. One team of researchers has used computer modeling to project that the number of Ebola cases will reach 10,000 by September 24th if current trends continue. And if the spread of Ebola does not slow down, we could be dealing with 100,000 cases by December. Even the WHO is admitting that the number of cases is likely to grow to 20,000 before too much longer, and global health officials are now starting to use apocalyptic language to describe this outbreak.
For people in the western world that have never seen anything like this other than in the movies, it can be difficult to grasp just how horrible this epidemic truly is. In the areas of west Africa where Ebola is spreading, fear and panic are everywhere, food shortages are becoming a serious problem and there have been reports of dead bodies rotting in the streets. People are avoiding hospitals and clinics because of paranoia about the fact that so many health workers have contracted the disease. According to the World Health Organization, more than 240 health workers have gotten the virus so far and more than 120 of them have perished.
We have never seen anything like this in any of our lifetimes, and the scary part is that this might only be just the beginning.
The following are 16 apocalyptic quotes from global health officials about this horrific Ebola epidemic...
#1 Dr. Tom Frieden, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: "It is the world’s first Ebola epidemic, and it’s spiraling out of control. It’s bad now, and it’s going to get worse in the very near future. There is still a window of opportunity to tamp it down, but that window is closing. We really have to act now."
#2 Dr. Joanne Liu, the international president of Doctors Without Borders: "Riots are breaking out. Isolation centres are overwhelmed. Health workers on the frontline are becoming infected and are dying in shocking numbers."
#3 David Nabarro, senior United Nations system coordinator for Ebola disease: "This outbreak is moving ahead of efforts to control it."
#4 Dr. Bruce Aylward, WHO's assistant director-general for emergency operations: "This far outstrips any historic Ebola outbreak in numbers. The largest outbreak in the past was about 400 cases."
#5 Margaret Chan, the head of the World Health Organization: "...we hope to stop the transmission in six to nine months".
#6 Dr. Daniel Bausch, associate professor in the department of Tropical Medicine at Tulane University: "You have a very dangerous virus in three of the countries in the world that are least equipped to deal with it. The scale of this outbreak has just outstripped the resources. That’s why it’s become so big."
#7 Gayle Smith, senior director at the National Security Council: "This is not an African disease. This is a virus that is a threat to all humanity."
#8 Dr. Tom Frieden, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: "The level of outbreak is beyond anything we’ve seen—or even imagined."
#9 Vincent Martin, head of an FAO unit in Dakar: "This is different than every other Ebola situation we've ever had. It's spreading widely, throughout entire countries, through multiple countries, in cities and very fast."
#10 Dr. Richard Besser, health and medical editor for ABC News: "Emergency rooms are closed, many hospital wards are as well leaving people who are sick with heart disease, trauma, pregnancy complications, pneumonia, malaria and all the everyday health emergencies with nowhere to go."
#11 Bukar Tijani, the UN Food and Agricultural Organization regional representative for Africa: "Access to food has become a pressing concern for many people in the three affected countries and their neighbours."
#12 Keiji Fukuda, the WHO's assistant director-general for health security: "People are hungry in these communities. They don't know how they are going to get food."
#13 Dr. Daniel Bausch, associate professor in the department of Tropical Medicine at Tulane University: "This is for sure the worst situation I've ever seen."
#14 Dr. Tom Frieden, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: "I could not possibly overstate the need for an urgent response."
#15 Official WHO statement: "Staff at the outbreak sites see evidence that the numbers of reported cases and deaths vastly underestimate the magnitude of the outbreak."
#16 Dr. Joanne Liu, the international president of Doctors Without Borders: "It is impossible to keep up with the sheer number of infected people pouring into facilities. In Sierra Leone, infectious bodies are rotting in the streets."
Despite all of these warnings, a lot of people in the western world are not too concerned about this epidemic because they have faith that our advanced technology will prevent a widespread Ebola outbreak in the United States and Europe.
But I wouldn't be so certain about that.
So far, the most promising experimental Ebola drug seems to be ZMapp. In clinical trials, it has been doing very well on monkeys.
However, it hasn't turned out to be a silver bullet for humans so far. Two out of the seven people that have received ZMapp have died, and as CBS News recently explained, current supplies are exhausted and it takes a really long time to make more of this stuff...
ZMapp’s maker, Mapp Biopharmaceutical Inc., of San Diego, has said the small supply of the drug is now exhausted and that it will take several months to make more. The drug is grown in tobacco plants and was developed with U.S. government support.
Kobinger said it takes about a month to make 20 to 40 doses at a Kentucky plant where the drug is being produced. Officials have said they are looking at other facilities and other ways to ramp up production, and Kobinger said there were plans for a clinical trial to test ZMapp in people early next year.
The cold, hard truth is that Ebola is a brutally efficient killer for which we do not have a cure at the moment.
And what makes things even more complicated is that a different strain of Ebola is now spreading in the Democratic Republic of Congo. A treatment that works for one strain of Ebola may not work on another strain.
So let us hope and pray that Ebola does not reach the United States.
If it does, it could potentially spread like wildfire.
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#17 Dr. Regina Benjamin, President Obama's first appointed Surgeon General of the United States of America: "WHO? WHO brought lunch? WHO be grabbin' all the thighs and biscuits?"
#18 Rahm Emanuel, Mayor of Chicago: No big deal. We lose that many in gang shootings every weekend.
Most Drudge and ZH posters: No big deal. Scientists. What do they know. Probably got a grant.
19. Under the California desert and subsidized by the taxpayers' money, someone had finally invented a chain letter that really worked. A very lethal chain letter.
Stephen King, The Stand
Runners, report to your nearest FEMA Camp of Salvation. If you don't have it yet, you will...
(running through the room with scissors & my hair on fire)
Lookout! Ebola Squirrels!!!
Ebola will put an end to scarcity once and for all.
Try to look on the brightside. Ebola isn't that bad. It beats dying of Alzheimer's.
Yeah but I'd rather die in bed with a 25 year old stripper when I'm 95...
Sign me up...
Damn African diseases.
No. No white men give diseases to everyone else! I learned that at school.
How else did we conquor the world?
ANd here I thought it was the White folks being significantly ahead of most the rest of the world on the evolutionary bell curve. Ive always found it amazinf how far behind Africans have been in terms of modern society. I mean, they still havent figured out how to farm. According to Darwinism, they should be extinct by now.
20) Dr. Karl-Heinze Baxter, Chief Biological Officer Deutschehospital: "Speaking philosophically, humans have had a pretty good run. We survived the Black Plague, the 1919 Flu, a couple World Wars..... but this is an entirely different animal. Is it time to grab your ankles? Yes. Yes it is."
So what your telling me is that I shouldn't have given my parents in law that free vacation trip with the "meet the local" to Nigeria after all?
No, you shouldn't have. That trip was reserved for your in-laws.
The World Health Organization has also decided to include "probable" and "suspected" cases and deaths in their statistics. So, basically anytime someone dies unexpectedly they become a candidate for inclusion into WHO numbers.
Hey, perhaps the WHO numbers are way way under reported. How would I know. But perhaps all the "scientists" who make their livings off of government money have an incentive to exagerate. Do you think doctors are to noble for this? lol....not today my friends. Maybe 50 years ago. Not today.
There you go! Bravo.
Scientists you say?...lol.
////
Lemme pick another pus filled scab while I'm at it. It was week before last I bet someone (cougar knows who, I suspect) that by Labor Day ebola deaths would 30k.
No pandemic.
How about you go test the bodies and give us a real count?
People who simply die unexpectedly don't become candidates for inclusion into WHO numbers, otherwise the WHO numbers would have been far higher, as the total count so far is in line with annual deaths from other hemorrhagic fevers active in the region. WHO bases its count on on official numbers reported by the Ministries of Health, which are understaffed and underfunded, and not too keen to go into into field counting and cleaning up every potentially infected corpse. Most of the "scientists" who make their livings off of government money are happily hiding in their ivory towers far from any significant immediate risk of infection, and ability to directly manipulate the MoHs' counts.
.
In short- a relative few cases of Lassa fever, Yellow fever, or even Malaria could be mixed in the counts (not estimates) forwarded to the WHO, but these numbers would be dwarfed by sick and dead with no access to medical care or MoH bean counters.
WHO didn't have enough money to fight Ebola at the Early stages,
so now it will cost much more to fight Ebola in the middle stages.
But medical personnel exhaustion and deaths and panic are negative indicators
and the region is heading toward self protective isolationism,
yet while medical personnel possible Ebola carriers are rotated in and out of the Ebola region,
but the End stages threat of world wide Ebola pandemic is increasing,
with international travel of Ebola infected persons not yet showing symptoms,
and as the Western world intentionally brings Ebola patients into the Western world.
We Could Have Stopped This Ebola Outbreak http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/09/05/we_could_have_stopped_t...
But there is hope,
Anti-bodies from Ebola survivors may be the best current treatment for the sick.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/blood-transfusions-from-surviv...
Spoken like a true moron.
Ebola ebola ebola mm hey!
Ebola Ebola Ebola MM HEY!!!!
This is our new daily encantation we say upon waking. Does it do any good? Who knows, but it definitely starts the day with a healthy dose of gallows humor.
WHO brought my putter?
Ever had a shit day, then have something make you smile? I just did.
Thank you, hedgeless!
Ebola: Civilians Barred from Military Hospitals, Lagos Hospitals Reject Patients
Sept. 05 - The [Nigerian] military has secretly ordered its health care workers to stop attending to civilians at its hospitals across the country.
Source: http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/ebola-civilians-barred-from-military-hospitals-lagos-hospitals-reject-patients/188221/
Confused about airborne vs. aerosol transmission? Good info here:
Ebola virus may be spread by droplets, but not by an airborne route: what that means
It’s important to pass a message that is correct, but also to ensure distrust does not result from a public reading apparently contradictory literature. Such distrust and real concern have been rampant among a hyperactive #ebola social media. Simple, clear phrases like “ebolaviruses cannot be caught from around a corner” may help uncomplicate the communication lines. [Emphasis added]
Whether propelled by sneezing, coughing, talking, splashing, flushing or some other process, aerosols (an over-arching term) include a range of particle sizes.
Those droplets larger than 5-10 millionths of a meter (a micron [µm], about 1/10 the width of a human hair), fall to the ground within seconds or impact on another surface, without evaporating (see Figure).
The smaller droplets that remain suspended in the air evaporate very quickly (< 1/10 sec in dry air), leaving behind particles consisting of proteins, salts and other things left after the water is removed, including suspended viruses and bacteria.
These leftovers, which may be more like a gel, depending on the humidity, are called droplet nuclei. They can remain airborne for hours and, if unimpeded, travel wherever the wind blows them. Coughs, sneezes and toilet flushes generate both droplets and droplet nuclei.
Droplets smaller than 5-10µm almost always dry fast enough to form droplet nuclei without falling to the ground, and it is usual for scientists to refer to these as being in the airborne size range.
It is only the droplet nuclei that are capable of riding the air currents through a hospital, shopping centre or office building.
Source: http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com/2014/08/ebola-virus-may-be-spread-by-droplets.html
Not entirely true, although technically true.
The sedimentation rate data are all derived from still-air experiments (using such technology as the Andreasen Pipette, for estimation of sedimentation rates of size-dispersed aerosol suspensions - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0032591086800614 ).
In the "real world", the locations you mention all have air currents, and it takes very little energy (i.e. airstream velocity) to maintain suspension of 10 micron particles. In the hustle and bustle of a busy Hospital / Shopping Mall / Indoor Entertainment Area, such particles would easily remain suspended for a very long time (maybe indefinitely), especially since their density (i.e. particle mass) is not that great.
How do we know this to be the case? Simple. Look at the Particle Size Ranges measured by "Cleanroom" Particle counters - e.g. the one we use - the MetOne 3400 http://www.particle.com/met-one-air-particle-counters/portable/met-one-3400 Note the 10 micron range . . . . . Note also that other models sample up to 25 microns.
These are all "airborne" particles, so don't be too reassured by the "no airborne transmission" meme.
Thanks. I'm really just trying to bring some info to ZH before someone starts in (again) with what they "feel" is really happening. With zero evidence and even less training and/or research.
How is the weaponized version transmitted?
Alea and Parrot...
NICE!
Some smart motherfuckers, here!
Merci beaucoup.
On the bright side- most facilities in West Africa don't have central forced air.
On the no so bright side- they do have toilets, which are very good at aerosolizing the "non-airborne"
Something to consider- they do have plenty of room air conditioners and swamp chillers in West Africa. While the sterilization focus at healthcare facilities *appears* to have been on application of disinfectants to surfaces, surfaces wouldn't necessarily account for some of the more horrific tales of staff decimation, but room air conditioners and swamp chillers can provide a comfortable home for just about any bacteria or virus with both hot and cold parts and a steady supply of moisture, combined with a fan motor which will largely render meaningless the results of any still-air experiments...
But westerners, who have an abundance of central forced air (and an epidemic of MRSA among other things in healthcare facilities), can rest assured that the little HEPA sticker on their air filters will always protect them, despite the fact that many viruses tend to be smaller than the physical openings on the filter membranes. Perhaps they skipped Brownian math and just take the 99 (or whatever percent) figure at face value without stopping to ponder why it is anything other than 100% and what the implications of that
Ultraviolet light. 100% kill rate for bacteria and virus. Used for operating theaters all over the world until 'health concerns' stopped the use of UV on tissue. UV sources are an excellent addition to your survival package - along with some education on how to use it. Very important of course.
Don't forget about the cleansing effects of ozone.
An ozone generator does a real number on pathogens and scents.
Airborne is a airborne does, seems to be the best way to think of it. Something to be aware of, the transmissability of ebola remains a very scary wildcard. I still don't have a good feel for it. The Congo thing had me worried for a day or two.
My "feel" comment wasn't directed at you btw. Hope you didn't take it that way. I was thinking about an "airborne" comment from earlier in the week.
Yeah I got that part. No worries.
Everyone knows my "feelings" are special /s
Your scared now? Check this out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqcHG7QUK9k
I've got a lot worse than that to worry about, if I were the type to worry, which I ain't.
Just tell me where we are on the fucking hockey stick, OK
The hockey stick is now so far up our ass, its foot is coming out of our mouth.
That would be an awesome scene for a Canadian slasher flick.
We won't find the government funds to ramp up the zmapp production. But wer're going to keep paying millions of leeches to do fuck all aside from eating out our substance.
"The world is ending" is always followed by "Give me money and I can fix it"
Although no solutions are ever found corrupt scientitsts pursuaded by politicians and bribery get rich.
The think the last "we can save the world" number I heard was $600 million though I'm sure we're over a billion now.
$430 million was the ransom two weeks ago
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-25/who-seeks-430-million-for-coord...
Are the polar bears dead or cities floating away yet? There are so many manufactured crisis' I can't even keep track anymore where one scam ends and the other begins. It's one impregnable chain of corruption.
Well you are certainly hoping and praying that is the case, aren't you?
I hear you
So many opportunites to make a killing it's difficult to decide sometimes. I was thinking about getting into climate science research. Banking is pretty much shot anyways and I hear the chicks are easy to nail.
Yeah, do what every other government agency does. Make up a bunch of shit and then ask for money to solve it. It's the only way to make money anymore.
"corrupt scientitsts pursuaded by politicians and bribery get rich."
Get over yourself.
Up looks like we caught one on the defensive.
Never. Always on the attack.
If (and maybe when) the "problem escalates", the tune will change very rapidly.
Something called "self-preservation".
Oh yes this is very true. We have to pay attention to fast-moving things. Most people have a very rudimentary understanding of biology and spread of disease -- essentially, none understanding at all -- and a fast-moving thing can take them by surprise. This is why I de-lurk and try to educate folks, though it is mostly a waste of time.
I figure maybe some day these few scattered lessons will help someone understand their situation.
Damn. I guess I picked a bad week to quit Crystal Meth.
There's more money in treatment than in cure. If you cure it - then it's done! Much better to just make the disease manageable.
No No No. You don't get it.
CREATE some bullshit disease/disorder like ADHD (because what kid isn't hyperactive?) So you created the problem and get this, you solve the hyperactivity with an amphetamine like Ritalin. Because we all know that prescribing an amphetamine to someone with gratuitous amounts of energy is a sure fire way to "help them" calm down.
Your kid doesn't have a learning disability they're thinking about banging their teacher.
You see how this works?
There is no cure or vaccine, and no real treatment either, and then the doctors and nurses mostly die. So I don't know who you think is profiting here.
"assesses the most promising strategies towards the future development of a pan-filovirus medical countermeasure."
I win. Again. As usual. Because I know shit from Shinola.
"I win. Again. As usual"
You remind me of my grandson who imagines that loudly proclaiming he's right means he is actually right. Not! If wishes were fishes... Grow up and present some credible evidence to support your contentions.
BTW, I also don't like the type of hype you quoted, but that don't mean the BioCyrst idea is wrong or unworkable. The mechanism is very interesting. Experimental evidence supports the efficacy of BCX4430. I downloaded the papers and read them. You should do the same, particularly before you go off in such a half-cocked manner. Er... Did you claim to be a scientist?
i've often up-arrowed you. I hope you will show better judgement in this particular case.
Cougar reminds me of a child as well. He throws temper tantrums,
stomps his feet, and loudly proclaims how he is always right. This signifies a deep seated inferiority complex and most likely a lack of real education. Compensating for his insecurity and lack of knowledge is representative of a very weak ego IMHO. ZMapp has a significant curative property that is showing a 50% success rate in a treatment setting. Cougar ignores reality and empirical facts in favour of his ignorance and an ego boost at the expense of knowledge and discourse. Someone should insist that he goes to bed after Gilligan's Island is over and the street lights come on. He should not be permitted to stay up with the adults after 9:00pm.
Very well put, Master of Universe! I think you nailed Cougar's psychology. Many thanks.
Keep trying, a decade from now you'll be where I was a decade ago.
"I'm the King of the castle and you are the dirty rascal" is a central
theme in the ego bound world you live in, Cougar. You are going to bed when the street lights turn on and that's final. When you learn how to act like an adult, and accept differing opinions, we will let you stay up
past Gilligan's Island and the normal bed time hour at dusk. If you behave yourself, and put all your toys away, as well as promise to brush your teeth, and stop annoying the cat, we will let you stay up with the adults until the late night news is over. This is the ultimatum
you should have been given when you were growing up. Unfortunately, your parents neglected to sanction you when you were younger, and we at Z/H know better than they did when it comes to socialization of children. Now be a good boy and learn to play nice with the other kids in the playground.
Best CURRENTLY AVAILABLE treatment is Anti-bodies from Ebola survivors.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/blood-transfusions-from-surviv...
You've been watching "Mission Impossible" again.
Scientists are evil, go fuck yourself. Come out of the cave and live. The worst day in the world, is better than the best day in your cave.
There isn't much integrity or ethics at the intersection of science and finance. Not all scientists traverse the intersection, but waaaaay too many for my tastes.
#5 Margaret Chan, the head of the World Health Organization: "...we hope to stop the transmission in six to nine months".
She says that based on what? Last I heard, hope was not a plan.
Same random number generator that churns out Obama's economic numbers - or anything for that matter. It's green as to reduce it's carbon footprint, it's powered by unicorns on rainhow treadmills (comes from the same source that powers green Tesla cars)
Unicorn?, as in a eunuch with a horn? ---
no wonder there aren't any left!
I think Chen had the BLS crunch the numbers.
What she means is that like with all the past mega-diseases in 6-9 months the fearmongering will wear off and they'll have to come up with a new scary disease.
"That is quite alarming, but the real problem will arise if this disease continues to spread at an exponential pace. "
No the real problem will arise if ebola figures out how to travel. Right now it cannot get very far outside west Africa. That might change, but it hasn't changed yet. Until it does change talk of exponential growth should be carefully couched in terms of a small area of a large continent, within which it will burn itself out sooner than later.
The cat is in favor of watchfulness. It is not in favor of melodramatic nonsense.
More:
"Despite all of these warnings, a lot of people in the western world are not too concerned about this epidemic because they have faith that our advanced technology will prevent a widespread Ebola outbreak in the United States and Europe."
Whoever wrote this piece is kinda stupid. People are not too worried simply because ebola obviously cannot travel very fast very far. The instant that incipient reality changes people everywhere are going to freak the fuck completely out. I certainly will be. A fast moving ebola showing up in a Paris suburb would be a disaster ... but until then it's an African problem and we should focus on keeping it an African problem while we can.
It's a good thing that sick people don't get on airplanes. Oh, wait...
That has nothing to do with it. Ebola is still limited in how well it can spread human-to-human. If it was as mobile as influenza we would have had 500,000 infected a month ago.
It is bad enough, we don't need to act like it is worse than that. And since it is limited we can fight it where it is but that means seeing that as a solution and not throwing up our hands and walking away because it is already spreading outside of Africa, which to my knowledge it is not.
Good points, Cougar. If primates were the preferred host for Ebola, there would be fewer of us, and life would be a lot less fun.
The worst part of this cycle of infections is the numbers are getting large enough to make that particularly nasty mutation much more likely.
Yeah.
It's all under a kind of rough geographical control -- until it isn't.
Things like this happen when they happen, we don't get a memo.
Strange... I didn't get that memo.
Will people please start copying me on this stuff? God sent me here to straighten this shit out and I can't do a damn thing if you don't keep me posted.
>> It is bad enough, we don't need to act like it is worse than that. And since it is limited we can fight it where it is but that means seeing that as a solution and not throwing up our hands and walking away because it is already spreading outside of Africa, which to my knowledge it is not.
Not YET.
The problem would be the dissemination of undetected "infected and infectious" cases in Metropolitan or Urban populations. Public Transport centres (rail / air / road (i.e. bus)) could easily assist propagation, and owing to high throughput, contact tracing would be difficult.
Consider that those most likely to use such infrastructure are those in the workforce. So there's a good case to anticipate preferential spread within this key group of individuals, which would be of especial concern, since high morbidity (and mortality) rates in the "provider" set could (would??) lead to service shortfalls. Then, by reasonable extension (and in view of the current penchant for minimalist employment), it might not take a particularly "big hit" on a major Western population to result in a considerable degree of "collateral difficulties".
Note that the WHO was predicting that Pandemic Influenza (5% mortality) would have been "catastrophic" for the West (during the last H5N1 outbreak), so it boggles the mind to think of the consequences (illness, death, and blind panic) arising even a "best case attenuated" version of Ebola (or whatever).
This is the problem that "everyone" ignores. It is not just the "headline" death rate, but the very invisible (but very important) consequence of losing these people. Whilst "No-one is Irreplaceable", replacing the real key players (not the 0.1%) could be extremely difficult.
As speculation went, that was better than most.
It is always the undetected cases that matter. WHO was saying last week that "shadow zone" cases where going to be a big problem.
The way it would work in the US is similar. If ebola is spreading human-to-human in a realiable way (seems to be doing just fine) you could have a sub-critical rate of infection that just keeps rolling along. Not really getting out of hand, not really going away either. Killing lots of people nobody cares about not enough for anyone to put 2+2 together. Just moving and killing and moving on.
And then one day, hitting just the right mutation that makes it spread like crazy, and you have something you were not ready for eating people alive.
That's not even alarmist. That's just how this shit works.
Not speculation according to our Epidemiologist colleagues.
Predicting exactly what the outcome of a "novel" infection will be is difficult, on a comparable scale to accurate long-range weather forecasting. No matter how accurate the available data (and there's plenty of hard evidence to suggest at least some degree of under-reporting), the output of the various computer models we have access to does vary, ranging from "borderline innocuous" to "beyond the capacity of our peacetime health system", especially looking at longer-term scenarios (6 months - 1 year).
Our incident planning is guided by their predictive modelling and we have to be prepared for a significant event, or rather have plans in place to manage such an event. As to whether we would be able to manage any significant outbreak (in view of the "Panic Effect"), I suppose we'll have to wait and see.
Then, there's this - http://motherboard.vice.com/en_uk/read/a-2006-mathematical-model-shows-how-ebola-could-wipe-us-out Scaremongering? Check the credentials of the model's designer, and pay particular attention to the conditions that result in a transition from an essentially linear model, to an "extinction for all hosts across a greater geographical distribution" scenario.
The only real problem/difference in the model that Bar-Yam came up with is that this particular outbreak started in several different locations and his model only shows one location as "ground-zero". Would really like to see him rework his model taking that into consideration and see how it affects the outcome.
Scince you seem to be well versed in diseases I figure you are as good to ask as anyone: Are there traits or genes that can make people immune to influenza? I ask because neither I nor my 2 brothers have ever had the flu, and between the 3 of us there are 100 years of life. I worked in a pharmacy and interacted with sick individuals for years, and both of THem have significant others who work in hospitals (one an anestheticist and the other works in trauma). ALL 3 WIVES/GIRLFRIENDS HAVE HAD THE FLU (SORRY FOR THE CAPS, STUPID PHONE).
Do you have type A blood? People with type A blood are most resistant to influenza. I too have never had it and never get vaccinated.
It's hard to say "no" to an observation like that. But I can also say that if there was someone with a general all-purpose immunity to influenza I think there would be about 200 major pharmaceutical companies would want a shot at understanding how that was possible.
Influenza is the shit. I mean it is nearly perfect as a pathogen. But it's not that common amoung healthy people with normal habits, and immunizations are free or cheap, so it's not usually a big deal.
Probably you and yours know how to take care of yourself and avoid exposure. Maybe you have enough low-level drive-by exposure all the time to have just enough immunity to ward it off if you do become exposed. Even that sounds like a reach even to me.
Well enjoy your good fortune. FWIW, I'm 55 and never had the flu that I know. No idea why. Just one of those things. Though now I've said it I suppose i'll get it next month.
Things and cougar. thank you both for replying. it is something I have always been curious about, especially as relates to my own medical history....i got chicken pox as a child and have had the "stomach bug" on 4 occasions. those are the only times ive been sick in my 35 years. Some blood cultures i had in relation to a small spot on my face came back with a diagnosis of discoid lupus, but the follow ups the next year were all negative for the same "markers." Since its an autoimmune disease where your body ends up mistakenly attacking healthy cells, i often wonder if my immune system is just hyperactive. I dont want to become a lab experiment, but it would be interesting if certain people roaming around carry genetic variations that confer a "rapid response" detection of foreign invaders that allow for creation of antibodies even before the invader can gain a foothold.
A percentage of the population of Northern European descent carry a mutation CCR-55 that renders those with 2 copies of the gene immune to both plague and apparently HIV.
Something else for me to research if i can make the time. at some point our family last name was changed from gustavson
Oh it will travel :
"The probability of seeing at least one imported case of Ebola in the U.S. is as high as 18 percent by late September, researchers reported Tuesday in the journal PLOS Currents: Outbreaks. That's compared with less than 5 percent right now.."
There's a 25 to 28 percent chance that an Ebola case will turn up in the U.K. by late September. Belgium, France and Germany will have lower risk.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2014/09/04/345767439/a-few-ebola-c...
I read it, it's good work:
"Results indicate that the short-term (3 and 6 weeks) probability of international spread outside the African region is small, but not negligible. The extension of the outbreak is more likely occurring in African countries, increasing the risk of international dissemination on a longer time scale."
So exactly what I've been saying for a while now.
See guys, it's not hard to figure. I've done enough population modelling to get the same general outcome running a model in my head.
The problems start when ebola gets into many more countries with large populations and many international connections. Hasn't happened yet but it might. We find it in east Africa, or Egypt, or it jumps to India, then yes absolutely we have a new game. Still not a global disaster (I still don't see a pathway for that) but vastly more interesting.
Their model had ebola jumping to the UK and UAE, and Ghana is going to have a hard time. That was really interesting, I was expecting maybe France instead. Well that's why we have models. What is critical (as they mention) is secondary spread. In that case UK is a real international threat. The irony might be that they contain this round of ebola to Africa only to have it pop up in the UK 6 months later, and from there start to move in unexpected ways.
" Still not a global disaster (I still don't see a pathway for that)"
Do you care to explain why? I don't see why the same basic process won't repeat here, with small outbreaks, quarantine attempts, broken quarantines. If the authorities make quarantines seem punitive, that may lead to total chaos.
Do you believe it to be airborne? If so, what about air travel - that's how it came to Nigeria, where sawyer infected everyone who attended to him. If not, why not?
When I mentioned that I don't see a pathway, it means I can't connect the dots between the outbreak in Africa and something similar happening in the US. It's hard to explain -- see these are multivariate problems. Lot's a variables. Huge interaction matrices. But the funny thing is you can sort of look at it from a distance and without even running it through a computer you can get a first order approximation. For example, I had ebola jumping into France because it made sense to me, while a real model run hundreds of times had it jumping instead to the UK. Okay, that's fine, I was pretty close.
How do I do that? I can't even tell you. Instincts, experience, ninja mad skillz, I don't know. But I "run the numbers" as I like to say and I look for a way for the numbers to create a path linking the US (and all that it is, and it is not Africa, whatever you think) to Africa, and the link is really low probability. Sure it could happen, but I don't expect it to.
I don't know what all is the deal with ebola in the current outbreak. We're seeing some things going on that amount to circumstantial evidence, but you can't run with that. And of course it is changing slowly into new strains as it meets additional hosts. No telling where that is headed. It could get bad, but it doesn't have to, nothing forces that to happen.
I wish I could explain. I can't. But tell you what as soon as something really bad happens and I find out, all the dots might start to connect all the sudden, all kinds of doors start to open at high probability, and the lid comes off right now -- and I'll know. I just will know. And I'll say something and I'll explain what has changed, same way I was quick to point out that healthcare workers suddenly falling sick and dying was a serious big ringing bell for me.
I guess if they hold back information, I'm blown. The engines needs information. Well let's hope the info sieves are leaky, we need to watch this one. I seriously do not trust TPTB to tell us plainly what the foosh is going on.
The Black death traveled only 5 miles a day, yet it took out 40-50% of the population in Europe. Ebola can move a lot quicker than that. It's waiting for an opportunity, and I doubt it will have to wait very long. Lots of chinese and indians work in Africa and they are running away in droves. It's not hard to imagine someone taking it home especially when airline screening amounts to only looking for someone with acute symptoms.
Wrong about Ebola not getting out of Africa.
The idiot Western Governments have tried a few times already to spread Ebola in the Western world by bringing Ebola patients into the Western world.
Further, unless there is a 100 percent prohibition on travel from Africa,
it is only a matter of time before someone infected with Ebola travels on his or her own initiative to the Western world, knowingly or unknowingly spreadng the Ebola virus in the Western world.
And considering that the new Ebola virus may be intentionally created as a biological weapon,
World wide pandemic of Ebola may be the Satanic NWO Global Depopulation plan initiated now.
Some of that was fine. Yeah, only a matter of time. We get it. But no, ebola has not got out of Africa, not in the wild anyway, and that is all that matters.
But the rest of that was twisted bullshit.
On the whole you have promise and might add something of value here, but drop the pretense at being in on the fix because you aren't.
I guess I'm a bit slow.
1. The disease killed the top two researchers in Africa.
2. WHO officials have gotten it.
3. When Sawyer landed in Nigeria they knew he was sick, and took every precaution - space suit central, not bleach and dish gloves, and the head doctor and everyone else who attended him (seven people?) all got it. Now Nigeria has its own outbreak.
4. I see zero attempt to keep anyone with this disease out of any western country (racism?). If Sawyer isn't an immunologist and just someone with family in Britain, and he feels OK in Nigeria and when he lands in Britain.... I don't get it. It's kicking the ass of everyone it comes across, including the best, brightest, and most prepared. Why exactly won't this go global?
Through the 6 degrees of seperation I personally know of several Altruists heading to Africa (if they arent there already) not to mention the influx of African students that come here for University studies in America and Canada. Then you have the importation of coffee, chocolate, and certain fruits. As well as the imprtation of Africans through adoption channels. I really dont see how we are going to stop this from getting here without toatlly shutting down Africa and burning it all with fire. Its the only way to be sure. Otherwise, we are just playing a dangerous game of roulette.
See the "Georgia Guidestones" plan for Depopulation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Guidestones
Author said to be R.C. Christian,
a variation on the name Christian Rosencreutz,
or Christian Rose Cross,
supposed founder of Rosicrucianism,
forerunner of Speculative Freemasonry,
the Jewish-Christian pseudo-religon of the New World Order.
Forerunner of Joseph Smith with the magic spectacles founder of Mormonism
which is a hybrid of Christianity and Speculative Freemasonry.
This says you're correct.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2014/09/04/345767439/a-few-ebola-cases-likely-in-u-s-air-traffic-analysis-shows
Stay away from people leaking bodily fluids and don't forget to wash your hands when you prepare monkey for dinner
You'll be alright
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/engineer-under-observation-for-...
Shit.
Kali Ma Shakti de!
Take a look at this.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2014/09/04/345767439/a-few-ebola-cases-likely-in-u-s-air-traffic-analysis-shows
I am certain NATO could come up with a military solution to this problem if they really wanted to. They can fix anything.
So the latest American to be flown back to the U.S. is Dr. Rick Sacra (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ebola-infected-u-s-doctor-rick-sacra-arrives...), the guy who went to Liberia to replace Dr. Kent Brantly. So how long could he have been there before being infected? Not very long at all.
He specifically did NOT go back to treat Ebola patients; he went to deliver babies ("Sacra delivered babies at the hospital, and was not involved in the treatment of Ebola patients.") Well, of course babies and their mothers can have Ebola. But this guy had to have been using the very best protective stuff available.
If a highly experienced doctor, who went out to replace another doctor who caught Ebola, catches it almost immediately while not treating Ebola patients, this is an extremely communicable disease. I think that Western medical staff here who deal with it here are laboring under an illusion of safety; whatever safety measures they are presently taking are likely not enough.
Yeah this kind of thing makes my head spin.
Was the mother known to be in the incubation period? Was she showing symptoms? Did we already know ebola can spread during delivery, or is this not typical? Where did she have contact with a known infected? Was anyone a survivor of ebola? If there is no known infected in her environment then how did she contact ebola?
I'd be all over something like this. I mean tearing down the place all over it. There are just too many unknowns right now and they need to get a handle on it.
An infected mother's fetus will get the disease and be spontaneously aborted, usually killing the mother and making one hell of a mess for anyone trying to treat her. Fort Detrick has known this at least since Reston (early nineties). It was part of their screening for who could handle this shit.
The lack of communication among agencies is staggering, and dangerous.
Yuk. What a nightmare.
Primate model (reston)? Not always comparable with human (as we found out decades ago via Thalidomide).
Also, which trimester? A late third trimester maternal infection would usally not lead to abortion, rather death in utero. That opens an entirely new level of hazard - the Obs / Gyn people are very keen to do an emergency caesarean to keep mum alive, and if we don't know Mum's exposure history there could be a big risk to everyone, from the Theatre Porters upwards.
Actually not a primate model, and nothing to do with Reston. It was in their protocals for who could go INTO the building at Reston.
Ebola may or may not be new, but hemorragic fever is not. Lassa and Marburg are variants. There was one in Bolivia, three in the old Soviet Union... The Army has lots of experience with this and serves as a joint forces facility. I'm not a biologist like cougar. I know just enough to read the papers and the history.
Fascinating stuff. Ever wonder who would want to work in an Ebola building in Reston VA? Answer: no one. It was vacant for years, torn down, and replaced by a new building used for... a DAY CARE CENTER! Sweet Jesus.
Childbirth typically involves blood all over the place. The babies he was delivering were the difficult cases (that's why he went out;there was no-one to deliver the babies whose birth, w/o Western medicine, would kill the mother and/or the kid). Who would go to a hospital to give birth in Africa, even w/o Ebola? Only someone desperate; someone who knows that they are in such bad shape that if they do it at home they will die. With Ebola all over the place, you'd really have to be desperate to go to the hospital to give birth. So maybe one of the pregnant women was infected. But who knows, he could have caught it in a million different ways; not even from a patient he was working on.
Good luck with trying to trace the cause; trying to would be a great way to get infected.
Insects are doing their job very well. Wonder how many droplets a flie can carry while travelling from sweat to the cookie jar.
Did he contract Ebola from a patient that was asymptomatic, or did he contract it from another patient/hospital staff whose symptoms were so mild that full expression of the illness hadn't happened yet? You're right, we all should be all over this one, and I'm hoping the doctors treating him now are going to go over his patient/hospital staff contact list with a fine tooth comb which will trigger more research at the site where he contracted it. Of all the high-profile patients so far, this one has me most frightened.
You can't get ebola if you kill an Islamic militant.
You can't get Ebola if you live alone on an Island with no visitors.
Monkeyz and Batz, bitchez.
Invest in air defence to ward off any stray fruit bats??
Or make certain it's a "Fruit-Bat Free Zone"!!
Halleluiah
That is funny!
I was wondering where the Ebola updates were on this site lately.
Fridays and Mondays, generally.
Seems they usually wait until I have some spare cycles so I can rampage at will.
Border policies act as accelerators of plagues . This has happened before
Ad nauseam , but Greed wins every time .
See http://andreswhy.blogspot.com/2009/04/hadrian-and-critical-plague-mass.html
Is it true, that if you've had it, you are immune to getting it again?
A lot of diseases work that way. Problems start when a disease mutates into something new enough that it can hop over existing immunity. Flu does that every year, as does the common cold. Ebola, maybe less so, but who really knows at this point.
That's what makes most of the fruit-batty conspiracy theorists so entertaining- they seem to think some secret cabal has braniacs smart enough to come up with an ebola vaccine, yet dumb enough to think the original vaccine will necessarily still be effective after the chickens come to roost hundreds of thousands of genetic mutations later...
The Chinese and Russians are at least deploying little green men in biohazard suits with whatever their own virologists had on ice... It does raise some interesting questions about the actual origins of certain US and Canadian products...
Damn it, how did that tinfoil hat get on my head...
If a very similar virus again, probably yes,
but if somewhat different, like variations in Flu viruses,
probably uncertain immunity,
until more knowledge is gained by experience.
Yes, but parts of your brain, liver, kidneys, and other organs are destroyed. You may have a weakened immune system to other diseases if you survive.
Ya the NWO is experimenting with different strains. They have various forms of ebola that work on different genetic ethnicities but they haven't all been tested in the field yet.
BTFED Buy The Fucking Ebola Dip M'Fers.
You collapse your left lung in.
You puke your right brain out.
You do the hokey eboly
And you shake yourself about.
Probably not enough data on mortality rate for different ethnic groups
infected by the current strain of Ebola virus.
Knukies 5 Star Sickshit of the Day Award
That just encourages bad poetry.
Something like system testing in real time. Maybe it will be the vector of three strains that produces a particular set. NATURE did it not us.
Now, how to establish the three in real time? Well, one set started here, one over there. Then Venn diagram it.
thats a little better zh.
startin to get a lil chubby
but we need more death more horror.
NATO "spearhead" heading for east ukie?
Ok so then this is worse than the swine flu, right?
No. Well -- unless you are travelling in west Africa. But otherwise no.
"The cold, hard truth is that Ebola is a brutally efficient killer for which we do not have a cure at the moment".
I thought that the US military is the world's most efficient killer
US leads in volume, not efficiency. Moar profit.
not so sure about
"efficient',
but prolific or profuse
for certain.
Lets see,
Global economic crash
Mass unemployment
Starvation
Militarized police (PLEASE STAY IN YOUR HOMES, YOUR CIVIL RIGHTS HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED)
Ebola
ISIS
Russians
.... hmmmm, of those which one would you rather die from?
Why isn't alcohol poisoning on the list?
And sunshine, sunshine causes melanoma and should be avoided at all costs.
LOL
Deflationary.
We got this covered, we have TSA ball gropers in all airports and our borders are secure. You people are all alarmists.