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53 Million Temps: All You Need To Know About The "Jobs Recovery"
After years of ignoring the obvious, the Federal Reserve has been finally forced to admit that the labor force participation rate matters, and in fact has started to point it out as a clear negative when it comes to Yellen's "dashboard" of thresholds which will allow the Fed to raise rates (for the obvious reason that the Fed is desperate to delay ZIRP as long as possible and is now highlighting all that is wrong with the economy, contrary to Obama who is still focusing on all the rigged greatness of the US recovery) and to do so is going through Zero Hedge archives to note all those things which everyone had ignored for years and which we have pointed out as structural failures of the so-called recovery.
So while we are happy to oblige the Fed with our tens of thousands of articles summarizing what is broken with the US economy thanks to, well, the Fed, here is another one: one which the Fed can use next year when the time to hike rates has come and gone, and when the Fed is once again scratching its head what to blame it on.
The chart below shows the civilian employment to population ratio: a convenient indicator of the real state of the US labor market which does away with the labor force entirely, and the associated rhetoric of why it may or may not be plunging, and merely focuses on two simple things: total population and the total civilian population of the US. One thing is clear: the ratio crashed when the depression started and has flatlined since. Which, incidentally, may be all you, and the Fed, needs to know about the recovery.
But wait, it gets worse, because according to the WSJ, roughly one in three U.S. workers is now a freelancer.
Wait, how many?
Fifty-three million Americans, or 34% of the nation’s workforce, qualify as freelancers, according to a new report from the Freelancers Union, a nonprofit organization, and Elance-oDesk Inc., a company that provides platforms for freelancers to find work. These individuals include independent contractors, temps, and moonlighters, among others.
So 53 million, let's call them, temps? That is probably the most stunning number we have seen in years, and flips the entire premise of a "job recovery" on its head.
The experience of work has fractured in recent years, said Fabio Rosati, chief executive of Elance-oDesk. Layoffs that accompanied the recession forced many individuals to forge a living from short-term gigs, while online marketplaces such as Elance, TaskRabbit and Uber emerged to match independent workers with companies or individuals in need of labor. Plus, the rise of mobile technologies allow more people to work when and where they choose.
Or not work, considering there is no contract tying them to a job.
Independent workers “don’t have the workforce protections that have developed over the last 80 years. They are simply on their own,” said Robert Reich, the Secretary of Labor under President Bill Clinton and now a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. An accurate census would help policymakers determine how to fill gaps, he said.
Counting the number of contingent workers has not been a high priority in Washington, DC over the last couple of decades. The number “is likely to be large and growing and there is no political advantage in signaling that fact,” Mr. Reich said.
The punchline:
Companies, eager to lower payroll costs and take advantage of a more flexible workforce, are relying more on contingent labor. According to the National Employment Law Project, temp jobs now constitute an all-time high of 2% of all positions in the U.S., or 2.8 million.
So the Fed is trying to boost wages and generate demand-pull inflation at a time when some 53 million US workers, or a third of total, are "freelancers", which is a polite way of saying part-time workers and "moonlighters."
Well.... good luck!
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"Officially", yes. Capital and talent are still going where they are respected and there is plenty of economic activity out there, it's just increasingly more off the official ledger.
same as it ever was.
Zandi said he didn't believe it. I don't believe Zandi. Mrs K doesn't believe me. And my golf buds don't believe my handicap. So we're all square with the disbelief shit, right?
sounds like my life too......
Sell those 53 million on an adjustable rate mortgage and we will have come full circle!
Temps are easily disposable when you need to shed cost VERY FAST...and we all know the real economy can fold like a house of cards at any moment now.
Temps should find extra time to give back to the community. I have a feeling that alot of the malcontents here are unemployed and unmotivated to find a way to contribute to society. Those that don't agree with the president should become community organizers and walk a mile in President Obama's shoes. Selective Services is looking for regional managers. https://www.sss.gov/default.htm Or you could become active in a local food bank or any number of charitable organizations. Or we could all sit around and play sky is falling and cry about things we can't control, boo hoo.
As the complexity, risk and costs of hiring a potential long term employee rise...the number who will be employed will fall. It is not complicated.
Giving free time away is not a virtue when the whole reason you have free time is because of job loss or moving down the economic ladder.
It would be easy to walk a mile in Obama's shoes...which are generally golf shoes.
As the complexity, risk and costs of hiring a potential long term employee rise...the number who will be employed will fall. It is not complicated.
Yeah, nothing to do with the gamblers tanking the economy in 2008 lol. It's all dem rega-lations holdin' back deh job crea-tin!!
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/z-bls4.png
Alot of negativity here, why all the downvotes malcontents?
James, so you think gambling and risk taking is bad? Maybe you should take the easy route, get on welfare and food stamps like the rest of the lazy Americans.
I happen to love gambling personally, but I don't do it by illegally risking (stealing?) other peoples money and then demand a bailout when I massivley fuck up lest the whole world economy collapse into chaos - as by design.
Can we stop using the word 'illegal' already. For fuck's sake, things are either (un)lawful or (im)moral. Legality is a noose dressed as a bandanna.
Freelancing, circa 2014. Here, based on personal experience, is about how it works. Gubmint contractor X sees your resume online, calls you up. It goes well, they want to hire you on hourly basis for 1-2 year project.
BUT. They won't be the employer, they have outsourced that to company Y. You'll have an X business card, but you get your paychecks from Y. X tells you to call company Y, which will take 'a small %' for handling payroll, etc. You call Y, an 'outsourcing' firm. Y asks what you need to make. You say you got $x/hr on your last gig. He says he can do that. Hold it - what about that 'small percentage'? You ask Y what he will bill you out to X at per hour. He won't say! So you cannot figure out how much he is taking. Basically, X lets Y get whatever he can. If you as contractor don't just roll over and accede, Y will get back to X and tell them he isn't comfortable with you. And then you are toast, outta work, and then Y will roll the next candidate. Y will pay the next contractor $60/hour and bill him out to X and $125/hour, making a huge spread for every hour contractor works. Y gets 10, 50, 100 of these contractors working under this arrangement, gets rich in a hurry. I'd guess Y is probably kicking a bit back to X for allowing him to get away with this.
The whole effing arrangement is a disaster and a disgrace. I'll tell you one thing, there are some 'outsourcers' out there getting plenty rich, and there is a lot of sleaze. And a lot of unhappy contractors.
Dude, my buddy worked for a company that contracted for Metro PCS, Sprint, etc. to do antenna installations and testing, etc. He got paid $30/hr. The company was charging the telecoms $3000/hr. Takes roughly five people, two on-site, and three off-site, to do an install. All of 'em bill at $30. One manager bills at $50. Everyone but the owners and the manager is a temp. The rest of the $2800 likely goes toward yachts, bitchez, and McMansions.
Shaaa-zaamm! Obozo's 6th Annual Summer of Recovery worked!
That's exactly what lawfirms do. They charge $125/hr. for paralegals but only pay them $25-$40/hr. Then they bill you for the associates at $200-$300 per hour, but only pay them $100 per hr.
http://www.grammarphobia.com/blog/2013/07/illegal-unlawful.html
https://english.stackexchange.com/questions/33045/what-is-the-difference...
James, with an attitude like that, you may not be MF Global material.
So, James, you would assert that if labor and risk get more difficult, more expensive and riskier, the market will respond inversely and do more?
This would be the leftist wet dream.
So, James, you would assert that if labor and risk get more difficult, more expensive and riskier, the market will respond inversely and do more?
Risk tends to be expensive, ask your local bank for a business loan and you'll see they agree with me...when lending money.
Employment corresponds largely to demand and localization.
If your product is in demand and you can manufacture it successfully in bangladesh your workforce isn't going ot cost much. If your product is in demand but you must hire locals in US&A your workforce is going to cost a lot more...but silver lining! If you can make that local workforce more 'flexible' you can slowly get them down to parity with mexico etc. Temp workforce is one of the great ways this is currently being accomplished.
And since someone may chime in with "but automation!!!" Yes, automation is coming no matter what, and it has nothing to do with labour prices. No matter how much you charge (including nothing) you will never be more effective at performing the identical tasks as my $20 calculator or any number of 'free' online ones. This is how it will be for most jobs at some point..
This is all outside of the clusterfuck financial meltodwn in 2008.
High risk is expensive, low risk is less expensive. That is the market.
The question is how much real labor costs in America versus Bangladesh and what value they can provide at what cost. If your method of production and labor can only produce $10/hr of labor then you cannot pay $15, plus benefits, plus regulatory costs plus taxes. Bangladesh has to be not just a little cheaper but a whole lot cheaper because the materials have to be put in containers, thru docks, on ships, across oceans, off ships, back thru docks and onto trains and trucks. This would include tariffs and import quotas, as well. Made in the USA or locally requires pretty much only trucks and trains and no tarrifs. Local labor starts with many advantages, not to mention language, property rights, etc. This is why foreign workers have to be really cheap in order to compete. Even China is now losing out to others in the low cost production world.
The 2008 meltdown was a financial, Fed and government policy induced meltdown. Our long term production problems are government problems by and large.
Bangladesh has to be not just a little cheaper but a whole lot cheaper because the materials have to be put in containers, thru docks, on ships, across oceans, off ships, back thru docks and onto trains and trucks. This would include tariffs and import quotas, as well.
In the abstract I'm sure this is persuasive, but looking at specific cases it's a lot more complex. Look at auto manufacturing for instance. In Germany auto workers take home hrly ~67.00$ in US&A ~33.00$ in Mexico ~$4.00. The same companies who got bailed out by uncle sam are now investing heavily in mexico.
Anyone claiming that auto (and lots of other) manufacturing has been moved to mexico not because of the low labour costs (which are supposedly largely nullified by the various factors you supply - interestingly US has another trade agreement on the horizon to deal with the tariffs you seem to hold in high regard) but because uncle sam has been up to too much regulation fuckery and can no longer compete... well, the facts don't add up.
GM said last week that it will invest $691 million to boost its Mexican assembly lines.
To some, particularly the United Auto Workers union and many of its 1 million active and retired members, the trend confirms dire predictions of U.S. industrial decline brought on by the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement. Although U.S. assembly lines have recovered some jobs since the federal bailout, the industry’s long-term labor pull is southward to Mexico, where organized labor is feeble and rock-bottom wages are the rule.
Michigan-based parts giant Delphi isone of Mexico’s largest private employers, with more than 50 plants and 50,000 employees.
The Big Three are stronger and more competitive globally because they locate some production in Mexico and source parts from there as well, he said.
Lol, guess that's the secret sauce behind daimler ag as well!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/with-mexican-auto-manuf...
Interesting read, an article highly critical of where Germany is moving with its labour reforms. Somewhat comical when compared with US&A.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/german-labor-reforms-create...
James..yes, it is the regulations more than you know.
Have you tried paying about 20-30 cents on the dollar utilizing employees, because that is what it roughly costs in order to comply with the regulations (and taxes) and still try to compete against individuals/businesses those that do not care about our laws and regulations? Until you do, you will not understand the mess the government behemoth has created. They have made those paying the freight, the middle class workers and small businesses, non-competitive against those that scoff at the laws/regulations they create. This would be the cash workers, illegal workers, mis-classified workers and overseas manufacturers. And what do you think the government' solution is...of course, more freaking laws!
I worked as a temp (well paid one) for 3 years. Not knowing if you have a job the next day is nerve racking. The day I quit my boss' look on his face is one not to be forgotten. I thought you were going to stick it out till I hire you full time. Yeah, you told me that well over two years ago jackass.
There comes a time where you have no choice but to leave. And once you leave, you'll wonder why you waited so long and didn't do it sooner.
I left my last "job" in 2010 and have no desire ever to return. My income is up, my time is mine and my office is down the hall from my bedroom. Life is rich and full and the notion that the 53 million (or so) "temp" workers are a sign that things are terrible may also be a departure from reality. If anything, I'd posit that a class of independent contractors makes for a happier, healthier and, in my case at least, more productive work force.
Agreed in theory. Unfortunately too many are tied to a mortgage and lack mobility.
Curious thing....
Has anyone else noticed how sweet the cashiers now are at McDonald's. Starbucks... everywhere you shop?
I can imagine the boss telling the part timers, "You wanna keep this job, you gotta kiss the customers' asses and kiss 'em good! And SMILE!"
Employees sense how easily they can be replaced by others more eager.
Million DOllar Bonus!
Are we there Yet??
Global Thermonuclear War, Continental Epidemic, OR Nationwide Enslavement? Debt is Good, Debt is Money, Derivatives don't require regulation and are stimulative to the Great Economy. /S
Or you could find something other than the leftist endevours you listed. Join a tea party. Volunteer to answer the phone for an election campaign. Volunteer to watch ballot counting. Adopt a mile of highway to clean up (bonus - you get your name on a sign). Find a disabled person and mow his/her lawn for free.
Or enjoy your time on the couch because it sure as hell ain't gonna last much longer. Your choice.
My last three contracts for Permanent positions were written such that I can be terminated without cause, anytime. I think the rules for "temps" and "permanent" have coalesced. In fact, a job I had two years ago let a dozen Mangers/Directors/VPs go in a cost saving move in the matter of two weeks. All legit.
It's not the classification, it's the shift in how businesses are looking at things these days - survival mode.
All jobs now require you to sign something saying you understand that you can be fired at any moment for no reason at all.
This is the "new normal"....the next "normal" will be slave labor camps, where anyone can be put to death at any moment for no reason at all.
Oh wait, NDAA 2012...
Employment at will means you as the employee can up and leave wihtout saying anything either.
Not saying the "you can be fired at any moment" deal is acceptable, but there is your side of the coin, as well as theirs, not that it helps you at all as an employee tryna make some dough and make it to the next day lol.
So?
Property rights.
As an employer, I would love to be able to fire my employees without cause. They can certainly leave me without gving me a reason or notice.
Businesses do not "owe" employees a job, or for that matter vacations, paid time off, or health care benefits.
That said, treat me good and I will reciprocate twice over.
Some people actually still seal the deal with a handshake and honor their word without all the 50 page legalese and mbaese. If you have one of those for an employee keep him/her happy and if you don't know how to do that do some research.
I certainly know how to keep my employees happy.
And it doesn't require any help from the government or, for that matter, anyone else.
Rush Limbaugh pays his employees more than twice what the job is worth on the market. He says he does this because he hates having to hire people just because somebody else offers more pay. Plus, he says he wants to ensure that they are always ready and always at the top of their game for their particular job.
Having substantial wealth certainly allows some annoyances of life to be bought off and nevermore to be annoying.
Then employees shouldn't have to give any employer 2 weeks notice and then be denigrated to the next employer for not giving the notice when the employee seeks a new position.
On the plus side, when my income became unreliable I stopped borrowing (not that I borrowed much in the first place but I had plans).
How's that "consumer confidence" thing working out? From my limited understanding, I believe that most people spend nearly every cent that they earn and so "consumer confidence" must have something to do with how much people are planning on borrowing. Normal people don't borrow when they have no idea how to repay, i.e. no reliable income. Then again, I guess the banks don't care. As long as they can sell overpriced shares and real estate to each other, they can keep the Ponzi going.
there you go, keep dancing...
Yep, we are all "temporary workers" when you get right down to it. Workplace security is a thing of the past.
Here today, gone tomorrow.
Yeah no shit to this fucking idiotic article cause the days of having a career with the same company with full benefits has been long gone for a long time now!
Cause the fact is there's no longer the need for workers as there was when the Communist nations were essentially cut off from the global economy just like North Korea is still today.
There's too many people and no need for their labor plain and simple
Which is why TPTB are brewing up a real world war right now to reduce population.
And so good luck!
Those days by and large ended back in the late 80s. I remember because I was just starting work then and saw the writing on the wall pretty clearly at the large company I'd been recruited into. Concurrent with the 'new hire, career path training' I was going through, the company was in the process of acquiring a major competitor, primarily because that competitor had 'a much more lean-and-mean culture, less commitment to long-term employee development and more focus on short-term bottom line'. I got out of there around the same time, about a year later the first big round of layoffs (in company history) happened. They're now down to about 1/4 of the workforce they had when I started (but super-profitable - major win for shareholders and executives).
Under President Obama, the richest 10 percent were the only income group of Americans to see their median incomes rise, according to a survey released this week by the Federal Reserve.
The Fed data covered the years 2010-2013, during which period Mr. Obama constantly campaigned against income inequality and won re-election by painting his Republican rival as a tool of Wall Street plutocrats.
“Data from the 2013 [Survey of Consumer Finances] confirm that the shares of income and wealth held by affluent families are at modern historically high levels,” the report said in noting that the median income fell for every 10-percent grouping except the most affluent 10 percent.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/sep/4/incomes-fell-most-familie...
There are a lot of factors to the downturn in prospective employment and economic distributions.
In a controlled, centrally planned, leftist economy things predictably end up just where they are now. This is the classic stagflation scenario. The only two classes of people that prosper are the very bottom with guaranteed government minimums and no work requirements and those at the top who can maximize return and negotiate or absorb the costs of ever more rules.
Also, in the centrally planned financial world and artificially cheap money, it is easier, less risky and more profitable to play with cash. This favors the wealthy. Making stuff is expensive, risky and fraught with legal peril. This is why it is easier, quicker and less risky to just engage in mass layoffs than take a chance with a new product or build a new product line to see if you can sell more units, especially in the face of projected flat demand.
Last, if you are dumb enough to try and make things then you want to do it overseas. Fewer rules. Fewer enviro lawsuits. Lower taxes and labor forces that appreciate you more. Look, hamburger flippers say you are an asshole if you don't give them $15/hr and a company car right now. Workers in Malaysia will be happy for work and anything less than a 60 hr work week. Even though you might make fun of their low wages, they actually can make a living in the correspondingly low cost country. It is better to trade derivatives or engage in robo-HFT here. You need supercomputers and guys in $2500.00 suits for that, but only a few.
Welcome to Amerika. The central planners do in fact have a plan for you...and it may not be optional for much longer.
That's just one more reason NOT to buy a house and tie yourself down with lead weights around your ankles. My neighbor's two sons have bounced around the country from job to better job at least 4 times. One is now off to HK for a better paying job. If they had made the disastrous choice of buying one of those no-money-down adjustable rate mortgage boxes I would never hear the end of their father's complaints from next door.
Kids are smarter now, well, at least some. Many graduates who are out there in "the real world" see the crappy economy which MSM fails to see. It's a new world and those kids who undertand it will survive better off then those who fall for the MSM propaganda.
Your point about housing is good and I swore I would not buy another after two layoffs and moves. However, rents rise in a weak economy and my rent was rising rapidly and not tax deductible. So, I bought a condo to live in. It fixes my costs and offers some tax break. I am still not certain it was a great idea but there is a rationale for it.
The class structure of the future world is the government, the robot-maker and factory operator, the data collector and processor, the accountant (ie. the banker). There is no need for what constitutes the middle class. The middle between what and what? A person starting where and on his way where? No middle class in the highly automated and euqally corrupt future. Just machines and data working tirelessly to satisfy the demans of a tiny elite - a fraction even of the 1% that exists today.
A way there? A slow natural depopulation if the people are willing and complacent, or a rapid and violent one via war if they put up a fight.
The only thing that might alter the course, in my opinion, is a catastrophic event that curbs the use of technology. A massive solar flare, a nuclear EMP blast or something equally devastating that manages to wipe out ages of accumulated data existing only in digital form. However, such world will still be worse than the technological pseudo-utopia.
Another option is that we rapidly deplete finite energy resources, and while thinking machiens will still be in high demand, the muscle power will once again become a viable form of labor. Again, unlikely, but what other solutions are out there? Population reduction is coming. The reason we have that many people in first place is because in an industrial society having the most working hands and the biggest army meant being a winner. More people meant better life. In the future world of diminishing returns having fewer mouths to feed will result in higher quality of life. So an exact opposite will be true. Unfortunately, none of us in the ZH club belong to the category that will benefit from the transition. We're the expendables.
Superb post JuliaS, and spot on I fear.
100% spot on post.
LOL? Really...plenty of companies churn the talent and bring in people that can't speak english to drive down cost regardless of impact to the company. Anyone 50 is toast regardless of talent...well unless it is political. All you do is borrow a billion at zero and buy up your stock as your revenue falls and drive up the stock to mask the slow death of your company! Heck Tesla saw a 1% decline in output for the year...yet the stock is up 100%.
"Anyone 50 is toast regardless of talent." -- Really? I know several 50+ patent holders who are still some of the most innovative people around and in demand and getting top fiat all over the world. Pull that head out of your ass, you are going to miss some opportunities.
If you mean't to say that out of the 7+ billion souls on the planet, there is a talent and capital shortage, I might agree with you on that, depending on the area/sector.
"out of the 7+ billion souls on the planet, there is a talent and capital shortage" - not to mention a massive misallocation of those scarce resources...then there's the law of large numbers...most 50+ aren't patent holders and are much more dependent on traditional employment...time for all that to change? - maybe freelancing is forcing that change, actually..., but it's also forcing more government dependents, for those that just give up.
It's a tough environment to launch or maintain a going SMB too, or position oneself with useful innovations that the corporations will pay you fiat for (patents). Heck it's hard to stack and grow more of your own food, etc., but we're all confronted with these same realities.
If those over-50 producers are white, male, and hetero, they are toast. Large companies want them gone ASAP. REplace them with grads who Facebook all day, fine, but don't have white males on your staff.
The real question is who will die faster, the large companies that don't want 50+ year olds over Facebook surfers or the over 50 year olds?
I have found that 50+ year olds in specialized areas working for smaller, specialized firms can thrive now.
I actually feel sorry for the recent grad Facebook surfers. Their prognosis is not positive.
The projects I work on in the great white north are comprised of more than 50% white male heteros over 50. A few younger guys on the actual rigs but most service, consultants, or trades guys are in their 50's.
The work ethic is exceptional and most times there are issues, it involves a younger guy or a foreign worker. And don't even get me started on useless foreign workers
52 years old, 54 patents, 28 pending. Same company for 21 years, I get solicitations every week.
Thanks for posting. Today's youth fail to actually grasp the concept that there are real experts out there. Many of us have spent our entire lives in essentially fields to improve how these things are done. The youth certainly don't grasp that it requires years of sacrifice and actually working damn hard with no guarranty that you innovations will scale up or be bought at all.
Sorry LoP, you seem all over the place on this one: "Many of us have spent our entire lives in essentially fields to improve how these things are done. The youth certainly don't grasp that it requires years of sacrifice and actually working damn hard with no guarranty that you innovations will scale up or be bought at all."
Are you suggesting that we should all work hard with no guarantee of success???????? How do you know we aren't? There's no guarantee of success, remember??? A bit like those entrepreneurs telling young people that they should take on more risk (and then, when pushed, say you need to manage that risk) while 80% of small businesses go broke in the first year. And people really aren't "taking on enough risk"?
Some of us are trying to educate ourselves as fast as we can afford it, but I can guarantee you that with the best half of my life already gone, I'll be battling to double my current output by the time I die and twice fuck-all is still fuck-all.
Most people understand exactly the value of hard work. They have done the hard work. They have seen the return. You can preach innovation. Great idea. But for most, it is no different to preaching a lottery ticket, oh, but with hard work and no guarantee of success. But in case you haven't noticed, that doesn't stop a lot of people from trying anyway. Pardon my ignorance. I never learnt the most valuable innovation lesson of all: How to turn zero into one. Feel free to enlighten us. But don't mention hard work. Hard workers are a dime per dozen. I've seen factories full of them. You may as well tell people that in order to succeed they must breathe.
"with no guarranty that your innovations will scale up or be bought at all." -- What part of that don't you understand asshat?
LOL! I understand. Do you understand? You need to work hard with no guarantee ...
I understand that VERY well. And in order to fail, you must be able to survive while you fail so that you may have another attempt at success. Innovation usually requires some kind of R & D, and capital, which comes from either savings or borrowings - depending on risk profile - and savings comes from profit from labour after expenses ( if there is any ). R can often be obtained from time and minimal cost. D usually costs a bit more, unless you're good at finding funding and developers.
Don't hide everything! Spill the beans! Where can we find this Affordable Innovation! To tell you the truth, I have no doubt that it exists out there, I just don't see it as a viable income source for the majority of the population. You may as well tell everyone to be a famous actor or rock star. Great for those who make it. But the majority won't. My apologies for being a dumb shit. I usually like your posts, but I'm begging for an education here. What am I missing?
LoP - you kinda miss the point - again. If you stopped posting, I wuddn't miss you...
If the problem is structural, then its not just whining
Yet you took the time to respond. LMFAO!!! The point is fucking irrelevent, that's the point.
In fact one of those part timers just might be working on a fusion reactor in his garage.
Try to be optimistic, or go innovate yourself, that's my other point, which most critical thinkers pick up on.
One guy in his garage... More likely the PT'er is living in a garage. Go debate with your wife.
I'm lucky I have been in the same profession for almost all of my adult, I own the company and I am financially independent. I can clearly see, however, that 50+ yo with mortgages and kids in college are stuck and when they get squeezed they are toast. I am unemployed every day until assignments come in and I have to competitively bid. I really like what I do - still, I am very grateful for my circumstances even though I have worked my ass off all my life and still do... at present, the issues are structural, not laziness or lack of optimism. That's the way it is for now... telling someone to "take their head out their ass in be optimistic" is like telling them to eat cake. Give it a rest
"If you stopped posting, I wuddn't miss you..." --
For some reason I am starting to think that you are full of shit.
I suppose you're working on a "fusion reactor" in your garage, huh? I'm not a physicist but "fusion" is that the same reaction as the sun or is it fission? Then you must be working on a solar panel?
Yes, fusion is correct. thanks for helping. And yes solar panels are NOT fusion reactors, nor are they like the fission reactors that we have been using for 50+ years.
http://zebu.uoregon.edu/~soper/Sun/fusionsteps.html
But, but, but Tesla is green shoots in the green economy!...........0-golf-a
I remember my parents and grandparents talking about the depression and dust bowl days so it looks like deja vu all over again.
This time, artificially induced by weather modification.
How else can you support a massive Bank Mafia where they take pension money, people wealth and various piles of cash and turn it into their bonuses. Who makes more money on oil, metals, farm produce....the actual companies or the crooked bankers?
Define "the actual companies", becasue equity valuations have never been higher (so companies are doing quite well in fact) and when I look at most corporate structures and the real cost, it isn't those in the field or the real cost of delivering the actual product where I see the potential for cost-cutting.
Companies that have been absorbed into the Hive, or will soon be, are all that are allowed to exist. That is what is left of the market. What you're saying doesn't take this into consideration.
Ebola will solve the excess labor problem:
Yaneer Bar-Yam, the complex systems analyst whose model accurately predicted the global unrest that led to the Arab Spring, is also worried about the patterns he sees in the disease's advance. Models he designed for the New England Complex Systems Institute back in 2006 show that Ebola could rapidly spread, and, in a worse case scenario, even cause an extinction event, if enough infected people make it through an international airport.
http://motherboard.vice.com/en_uk/read/a-2006-mathematical-model-shows-h...
Ebola patient #3 arrived in Omaha today.
Uncle Buffett should have been more discerning of his Nigerian whores.
Where's the chart of "government employment to population" Tyler? I'll bet that chart is almost falling back on itself...
Government, where pay and benefits are double the private sector. It seems immoral when the people who get paid to impeded and harass the private sector get paid twice as much as the people they harass.
Having said that I would like to see total government employment (all levels) as a percentage compared to private and in raw numbers. Then compared government derived GDP to private. I think the numbers would tell a start story that will accurately tell us where we are going.
I agree with every word in your comment! +1
Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age
I'd like to see that, too. Both state/local govt and federal. I'd also like to see the median pay for lower, middle & upper wage earners in those categories, private & public as a comparative chart.
Well, I have anecdotal evidence as two distant relatives are retiring. They make over six figures, earn more than a FP doctor and will retire at close to 100% of pay. (40 years and close to 40) I think their pensions were noncontributory, but I am not sure. They both have midlevel desk jobs, regular hours and minimal stress. One retired last week.
Call me petty, but it burns my ass working in the private sector with far higher stress, generating real revenue and suffering innumberable restructurings and most of all...working in a heavily, stupidly regulated field.
I am not sure I will be able to talk to them much at the family gatherings...seriously.
I have an office full of patients like that.
Mostly full-pensioned retired teachers in their early fiftties.
If you like your historic lows in LFPR, you can keep your historic lows in LFPR...
What there is today is an increasingly huge bifurcation in the 'job market' where there's plenty of work in certain sectors for people with the right skills (and/or connections) while the unskilled jobs melt away like snow in summer due to increasing automation, economic slowdown, and systemic corruption in the financial system and government sectors. Not that its anything new, it's just that it seems to be reaching a crisis level now, but only because we've never been here before. As long as the majority is able to scrape by, albeit at a continually declining standard of living, they're going to be so busy scraping by they won't have time to revolt. I'm pretty sure that's the plan - EBTs, X-Boxes and cheap fast 'food' for the unemployed masses, forever.
Read Cicero on the fall of Rome, Julius Caesar, et al.
Bread and Circuses
Yes, nothing new under the sun. Wasn't it around 550 or something, long after the fall of the Empire, before they stopped giving the peasants free bread in Rome?
My commmunity (in British Columbia) consists of three groups: 20% wealthy resource industry-connected workers in lumber, fishing or energy (many rich from work in Alberta oil who have homes here) & their pensioners, 20% wealthy government employees or government contractors and their pensioners and the remaining 60% of us in the shrivelled private sector or on government assistance who are just getting by - barely.
Getting worse and worse but the big spenders have boats, campers, RVs, NFLX subscriptions, cell phones for every member of the family, huge modern houses, frequent vacations...
I am with you and it is similar here in America...as our governments become similar. Frankly, it f-ing frosts my ass.
The next time the $100k/person fire dept. here in my city asks for more money I am going to burn down the damned station. That will be their next call.
OK.
I'd like to know how you are posting from inside my brain, today
The Firefucker comment in the Post above was the clincher. Overpaid, underworked fat asses.
My guess is that it is because we are seeing and experiencing the same things. As more people see it and go "Wait a minute. This doesn't seem right." the better chance we have.
BTW, have you seen the size of men and women who are cops these days? Holy crap! I want to see the military obstacle courses they supposedly run. It must be the path to an ice cream freezer.
Ha! Made my day with the last comment.
NFL season opener was yesterday - I think the circuses part is covered until February 1, 2015 - Super Bowl Sunday.
Huxley and LOP make some valid points. The sector you are in no matter what gae will determine alot no matter how skilled you are. I have several doctor neighbors. The family docs are going under, bankrupt due to M/M, while the plastic surgeons are making more money then ever due to high demand belly tucks, tit jobs, etc. I would say most of them are 50+ and all are super skilled. The "sector" or "sub-sector" can be the determing factor.
In the land of dog eat dog, the nimble specialist is the last to be eaten.
At least I hope.....
I will tell you at least part of the reason. Part of the reason is that the family docs work largely by contract and are squarely in the sights of both government and powerful insurers who squeeze them at every turn. Most everything they do is covered by contract and a code and labor intensive, including filing.
Your plastic surgeon does things that people pay cash for. They use payment plans, get paid with little hassle and good work pays well. They are actually in a cash system and doing better. My best guess is that as the insanities of Obamacare take hold more family docs may go that route, as well. It may be that, "You pay $50 cash and I will see you. No filing insurances" in the future. This would actually benefit us all and we would get rational pricing and better service in healthcare.
Yes, looks like this has been going on since the 1970's here in the states. Some are more insulated and hence oblivious to it than others.
once again a miraculous buying spree in the last hour of trading In london starts the v=shaped erasure of losses in the Fraud markets.....
They're completely terrified to allow any red anywhere, for a sentient being may actually get nervous and place a sell order sending the machines 'buy all, always' programs into a confused selling panic flash crash. Things are fucked.
no doubt...
and their just trading among each other anyways in order to prop the shit show up and mesmerize the dumb dumbs whose 401k's r goin bye bye...
the equities will finish green today no matter the fuck what...this country is doomed.......
2002.67...2002.70...2002.74...2002.73...2002.69...and so on.
BARELY moving at all, insignificant "volatility". This is NOT A FREE MARKET.
Buying worthless stock with worthless fiat paper; the endless cycle of debt.
I'd love to see that chart with FULL-TIME working population vs total population. (edited)
I'm self employed and it's a shitty economy. Business is down, prices are up and people are nervous.
Call it like you see it. It seems to me that many see it your way, including me. I think everyone is nervous in the back of their mind because they know things are very fragile. One bad omen and what little we have will crash again.
Forgive my language, but how on fucking Earth is this market STILL holding up?! The Draghi effect from yesterday? No POMO today, crap jobless figures today, POMO (supposedly) ending in October.
DavidC
It's only half over today.
Remember, sideways is the new crashing.
$160 billion in reverse repos yesterday, $10 billion more than the day before, one participant more than the day before. So players got $10 billion more in treasury collateral, in exchange for "cash" (garbage commercial paper or other short term leveraged instrument, if you ask me), got paid 0.05% in the process, and were able to use this pristine collateral to jack up their bets - including shorting treasuries of their own country.
Forgiving your language is easy here, but your lack of knowledge about the effects of 2008 and ongoing of TARP, QE, FED intervention in the triple derivatives markets, Maiden Lanes I and II, and a variety of other fraudulently legal maneuvers by Bernanke, Greenspan, Geithner, Hank Paulson, Neil Kashkari, Peter Orszag, J Yell, Jack Lew, is unconscionable.
You need to get up to speed on the several Quadrillions of credit, pension, 401k, SEPs, and other Widows and orphans retirement funds that are paper based, and how the FED can not let those obligations fall apart.
The market MUST be sustained even if it makes no sense (bassed on earlier metrics like P/E, Sales, Market Share, and growth prospects.
So then, it will NEVER crash?
Sounds like the proverbial free lunch.
I ran into an Office Depot driver several times on break and regularly talked to him. He's been driving a truck for them for 10+ years. The last several years as an independent contractor. They basically kicked him out of his job and said he can keep driving, but now he has no bennies and has to maintain his own truck (which is falling apart). If OD is doing it.... others surely are too.
I have no sympathy for Office Despot, I bought an HP laptop there which wouldn't even start, the next day I took it back and they said I had to send it back directly to HP.
Office Depot - hahhahaha same things years ago with a sony computer or laptop (VAIO). They told me to go to sony who told me go to OD and they ping ponged me for a a while - I have not spent a penny with either one of those companies in a long, long time.
Indepndant workers don't have our 'workforce protections', worries Robert Reich one of the most disgusting creepy nanny-state individuals ever. As far as I'm concerned private contracting your work is the only way to go.
not sure i would agree with your assessment of Robert Reich. In interviews, he is quite plain-spoken about how and why the economy sucks, blaming all or most of it on the Fed. I don't think he's got his head up his ass at all.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/the-fed-apple-and-trickle_1_b_3194242.html
Look everywhere and you will find that banks have taken over technical facilities.
Instead of be productive by producing we shuffle paper back and forth skimming billions.
More and more banks and financial or heathcare is where the jobs are at.
This is how jobs are "created"
Jack loses $60k/yr job with benefits
Jack finds 2 jobs by $30k/yr, no benefits
1 job lost, 2 "created"
So, best way to increase employment by 100% is by firing every full time worker and forcing them into 2 part time jobs
Yup, except the 2 part time jobs combined don't pay anywhere *near* $60k.
And no benefits, plus a ruined life, exhaustion.
Kids don't see their parents.
Destroyed families
"best way to increase employment by 100% is by firing every full time worker and forcing them into 2 part time jobs"
It's all about perception and the numbers. If they can get people to take 3 jobs it's better. Shorten unemployment insurance and unemployed drop off the stats.
People will get exhausted with 3 jobs and will simply stop working and go on welfare
Well, that's what happens when the 300 million people at a relatively (artificially) high standard of living get sold out by their owners to 3 billion people with nowhere to go but up.
+
Spot on. Sportsguy chestbump.
Frankly, it will become better to live the "rat" life I saw on TV than be a fully productive member of society. It is the difference between freedom and being a tax mule where your job is to be a productive ant in the colony and produce for others.
some ppl work 4 jobs and end up dying from it....
http://youtu.be/Ei1SGtbiqi0
Put every .gov job out to tender and employment would rise 200%+
And my wife keeps telling me to go get a regular job. I am self employed, have been for over 20 years. Sometimes it requires I tell her to pull back on the reins. At which point she starts with the ass chafing. You need a regular job. So and so is so much smarter. Blah, blah, blah.
I truly deserve a fucking medal for putting up with this shit for years. If she only knew. The big "dream" for me, before I die, is for the shit to hit the fan, and the look on her face. That will be priceless, and then I can die in peace.
Messed up, I know. But it keeps me going.
Fucking free shit motherfuckers who think they are entitled to another's labor. The ill I harbor for these useless eaters is not really healthy.
This is the IT promise of the 4 hour work week fulfilled. The extra 56 hours grinding Jack's head with the jackboots are necessary to keep Jack from realizing how totally fucked he is, and doing anything about it.
I must not fear. Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.
I recognize the quote, where's it from?
DUNE
This sounds great but makes absolutely no sense, is self-contradictory, to wit:
"I must not fear............(two sentences later.....) ...... I will face my fear".
W T F?
So he's got fear. Herbert is wordsmith, but illogical.
What you fear owns you. Psychopaths control you through your fear. Therefore the boot of the controlling minority in the face of the naive optimists, until extinction.
The TPTB must keep Jack busy so Jack doesn't create something TPTB don't control: His Name Was Gerald Bull.
Careful what you hold patents in, PTB enabler grunts.
The only fear I have is not being close to my stash when TSHTF.
you forgot "+1 on the 0bamacare rolls".
it's really more like jack finding two part time jobs @ $15,000 per year.
It's all frothy noise, right?
It's all falling apart, for the bottom 99% anyway, that top 1% has never had it better ever.
It's not just the top 1% thriving... I'd guess it to be more like the top 5-10%. Anybody who has enough risk assets to benefit is making a killing.
The question remains what these people do with the paper gains (take some off the table and buy productive land, precious metals, guns, etc)....??
Stop complaining. You all could have taken "The Test".... Now get get a 3rd job so you can afford the taxes for those public takers pensions and benefits , you pay for.
PS better drive slow going from job to job and don't get tired and swerve or the road pirates will get you got even more $$$$$$
Ahhhh, the road pirates and revenue stops. You have a bad attitude, Seasmoke. They are there to "Serve and Protect". I see it on all the badges so it must be true. If I make a mistake they do the flashing light thing and help me, John Q. Public, their friend, neighbor and fellow citizen. They explain the error of my ways, give me a piece of paper to certify that I have been counseled and then give me the bill for the helpful counseling. Their rates are really high but then I remember it is helpful counseling delivered to you on the go in your car...sort of like drive through. They smile and tip their hat and go on to help many many more of your neighbors and they do not even wait to be asked. It is so nice to have their helpful guidance.
Why I just paid $140 myself for accidentally getting stuck in a construction intersection. They explained the finer points of not getting stuck even though it was obvious I knew it already (I had stopped). When I suggested it would actually be more helpful to us, their fellow citizens if they posted traffic cops as the lights and lanes were all screwed up, I got the serious "You might have a bad attitude which can double your fine and points...if you piss me off!" look. So, I knuckled under and smiled. At the same time I envisioned running his motorcycle over.
So many government people out there to help us citizens. They really are worth double our pay and benefits, I think.
i worked as a temp for a few years long time ago. every time one of the companies tried to hire me on a permanent basis i quit. always wondered which part of "temp worker" those losers didn't understand.
Ebola or some other mutant of it will take care of the population.
Get a .gov email address. Prollem solved.
Obvious simple solution to these poor statistics.
If someone works a temp job for more than one week - it should be classified as a permanent job.
Then classify any job where you work more than 40 hours a month - or two days in any week - or one day in two consecutive weeks as full time.
Then finally - consider the effort required to use an EBT card to buy something a full time job.
Looks just like the Baltic Dry too. 4-5 year out flatline.
The Baltic Dry is the ultimate "reality".
The pipeline of raw materials needed to produce goods of value is empty.
The world is living in a fantasy supported by a wish and a dream.
There's 53 Million that qualify for a zero money down, FannieMae, 150 year mortgage easily flipped to Yellen and a 10 year adjustable rate car loan for a new SUV from GM or maybe a Volt.
Problem solved for housing inventory and GM channel stuffing. You're welcome.
Japan has been offering 100-year mortgages since 1990.
"What do you do for a living?" "I'm a YouTuber."
(That's what I hear most from people aged 25-35 lately)
Google might soon be the world's largest temp agency.