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The Monetary Stimulus Obsession: It Will End In Disaster

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Detlev Schlichter via City A.M.,

It is now six years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and considering that the US economy has officially been in recovery for the past five years, that equity indexes have put in new all-time highs, and that credit markets are once again ebullient to the point of carelessness, it is worth contemplating that monetary policy remains stuck in pedal-to-the-floor stimulus mode. Granted, quantitative easing is (once again) scheduled to end in the US, and the first rate hikes are now expected for next year, but the present policy stance certainly remains highly accommodative. A full “exit” by the Fed is still merely a prospect.

Expectations appear to be for the US economy to finally emerge from its long stay in monetary intensive care healthier and fit for self-sustained, if modest, growth. I think this is unlikely. The lengthy period of monetary stimulus will have saddled the economy with new dislocations. And if central bank intervention did indeed manage to arrest the forces of liquidation that the crisis had unleashed, then some old imbalances will also still hang around.

“Easy money” is – contrary to how it is frequently portrayed – not some tonic that simply lifts the general mood and boosts all economic activity proportionally. Monetary stimulus is always a form of market intervention. It changes relative prices (as distinguished from the “price level” that most economists obsess about); it alters the allocation of scarce resources and the direction of economic activity. Monetary policy always affects the structure of the economy – otherwise no impact on real activity could be generated. It is a drug with considerable side effects.

The latest crisis should provide a warning. As David Stockman has pointed out, it did not arrive on a meteor from space, but had its origin in distortions in the housing market in the US – and the UK, Spain and Ireland – and in related credit markets, and therefore ultimately in the “easy money” policies of the early 2000s. Administratively suppressing short rates down to 1 per cent for a prolonged period was then the “unconventional” policy du jour, and it was a success of sorts. A credit crunch and deleveraging were indeed avoided, which were then feared as a consequence of WorldCom and Enron defaulting and the dot-com bubble bursting, but only at the price of blowing an even bigger bubble elsewhere.

This is the problem with our modern fiat money system. With the supply of money no longer constrained by a nature-given, scarce commodity (gold or silver), but now fully elastic, essentially unlimited, and under the control of a lender of last resort central bank, the parameters of risk-taking are forever altered.

Allegedly, we can now stop bank runs and ignite short-term growth spurts, or keep the overall “price level” advancing on some arbitrarily chosen path of 2 per cent. But we can achieve all of this only through monetary manipulations that must create imbalances in the economy. And as the overwhelming temptation is now to use “easy money” to avoid or shorten any period of liquidation, to go for all growth and no correction, distortions will accumulate over time.

As we move from cycle to cycle, the imbalances get bigger, asset valuations become more stretched, the debt load rises, and central banks take policy to new extremes to arrest the market’s growing desire for a much-needed cleansing. That policy rates around the world have converged on zero is not a cyclical but a structural phenomenon.

Central bank stimulus is not leading to virtuous circles but to vicious ones. How can we get out? Only by changing our attitudes to monetary interventions fundamentally. Only if we accept that interest rates are market prices, not policy levers. Only if we accept that the growth we generate through cheap credit and interest rate suppression is always fleeting, and always comes at the price of new capital misallocations.

The prospect for such a change looks dim at present. Last year’s feverish excitement about Abenomics and this year’s urgent demands for Eurozone QE show that the belief in central bank activism is unbroken, and I remain sceptical as to whether the Fed and the Bank of England can achieve a proper and lasting “exit” from ultra-loose policy in this environment. The near-term outlook is for more heavy-handed interventions everywhere, and the endgame is probably inflation. This will end badly.

 

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Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:12 | 5186587 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

The near-term outlook is for more heavy-handed interventions
everywhere, and the endgame is probably inflation. This will end badly.

 

There is a solution an intelligent response.

The Twelve Steps

  1. We came to understand that our government is powerless over its spending - that our nation's debt had become unmanageable.
  2. We came to believe that a power greater than our fiat currency could restore us to sanity.
  3. We made a decision to turn our savings and our investments over to the care of gold, as we understand gold to be a physical asset - not a paper promise.
  4. We made a searching and fearless inventory of our wealth.
  5. We converted to gold, to Krugerrands, and to Maple Leafs, the fiat paper assets of our wealth, thus eliminating our counterparties.
  6. We were entirely ready to have gold remove all risk of default.
  7. We humbly asked the coin dealer to reduce our exposure to The Inflation Tax.
  8. We made a list of those politicians that expose us to The Inflation Tax, and became willing to work against them all.
  9. We gave direct support to Libertarians whenever possible, except when no Libertarian is on the ballot, and then we voted against the incumbent.
  10. We continued to create wealth through our own industry, and then we converted it to gold, and promptly buried it.
  11. We sought through silver coins to increase our contact with precious metal, as we understand silver to be a physical asset - not a paper promise, paying for as many day-to-day transactions with silver as possible, using our credit card (not debit) for what was not, and paying off the entire balance each month.
  12. We, having had a fiscal awakening as the result of these steps, tried to carry this message to others, and to practice these principles in all our affairs.
Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:24 | 5186703 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

hedgeless_horseman,

 

Are you aware that we live in a finite planet?

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:28 | 5186717 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Slave Isaura of 1976 Brazilian telenovela, are you brain dead?

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:10 | 5186865 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

WillyGroper,

 

I didn't know that you were into Brazilian Pop culture?

 

But, 1976?

 

Soon, we will be talking about history, too!

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:09 | 5187201 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

A planet of Marching Morons.

Endless Marching Morons.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:59 | 5187339 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

Yeah, Mr. Horseman.

It's all in place now. Sort of like a Zen kind of enlightenment. Now, to stand back and let the chips fall.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 17:46 | 5186589 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

Sometimes the old guys who have seen it all have the most perspective and the guts to speak up because they have less to lose. What I like about numbers is that when they are not jockeyed, jerked around, and falsified they tend to tell the truth. Looking down the road the numbers do not work.

Allen H Meltzer is viewed by many economist as America’s foremost expert in monetary policy, Meltzer is the author of the three-volume “A History of the Federal Reserve.” For over 25 years he was the chair of the Shadow Open Market Committee, a group that meets regularly to discuss the policy of the Federal Reserve. “We’re in the biggest mess we’ve been in since the 1930s,” he recently stated. “We’ve never had a more problematic future.” More on his thoughts in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/07/it-will-all-end-badly.html

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:21 | 5186684 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

AdvancingTime

You wrote: “the old guys who have seen it all have the most perspective”

 

Non sense!

 

These old guys, the Greatest Generation/Baby Boomers, caused this mess.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:14 | 5186875 hendrik1730
hendrik1730's picture

Oh yes? How then? We WORKED, INVENTED, INVESTED and CONTRIBUTED. What did YOU X.Y or Z generations do in the mean time? Lived on borrowed time, study loans, subprime mortgages and feasting/traveling all along? Congratz ......

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:23 | 5187064 shovel ready
shovel ready's picture

No mate. Your generation raped, pillaged, accepted government lies without guestion and gave not a jot of shit for the future.

When the X,Y,Z's wake up to this you'll be the first in the soylent green processor.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:25 | 5187069 klockwerks
klockwerks's picture

A big THANK YOU for the correct response. With the younger people it's always some one else's fault. They can bite my old shorts

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:33 | 5187084 shovel ready
shovel ready's picture

The older generation will never acknowledge their culpability or responsibility, nor likely live to really see the immense suffering that will result from the blind, self-serving greed of those that were the 'adults' of the 20th century.

We have handed the young people the biggest pile of poo in history.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:55 | 5187157 Stormtrooper
Stormtrooper's picture

Every generation has been conned into the Elitist Con-game of their time and just played the hand dealt to them.  True of every previous generation.  It is not a generational problem but a Rothschild problem that needs fixed.  That will never happen until people recognize the true problem.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:25 | 5187072 Laura Keth
Laura Keth's picture

The parasitic politicians did this.  Power hungry, greedy!  Don"t blame any other group!  No one today is fighting back are they!  They sit and type out garbage like you just have.  GET ON POLITICIANS!!! 

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:54 | 5187155 cart00ner
cart00ner's picture

If I agreed with you we'd both be wrong. Yes - the people we elected in good faith have handed your generation a bum deal, and I have to admit we stood by and let it happen. The question is - will you do the same or should we all grow some balls and stand up to these wankers.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 22:13 | 5187368 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

None of those I voted for were elected. But then, I've never been a Red/Blue dupe, either. In fact, I've never really seen any difference between the two branches of the MIC sponsored political persuasions.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 23:24 | 5187508 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

In what way did Boomers cause Nixon to end Bretton Woods?

We were not of voting age when Johnson started Medicare and were the cannon fodder of Viet Nam.

We were  buying our first house when Volker jacked interest rates to 18%.

We screamed like crazy when Bush pushed through Medicare Part D.

We were not on Social Security (and mostly not paying attention) when Soc Sec rates were set.

Look at Obamacare...that was rammed through by one party.

Do you really think the government has done the 'will of the people'?

The only blame we bear is not starting the revolution yet.

Now it is too late, the dollar is toast, and the best any of us can do is to mimic the central banks and hold gold.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 17:52 | 5186597 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Maybe it will end badly but till then; new all time highs every week.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:12 | 5186661 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

Exactly and the law of gravity will kick in.Not one peep about the plane headed to Miami that went down today by Jamaica hmmmm

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:56 | 5186812 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

I'm not sure how many more times I can hear this...I'm starting to wonder if it will end badly in my lifetime

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 22:15 | 5187373 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

It ain't an event. It's a process.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 23:27 | 5187513 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Pink, stay awake, it is almost over already.

If you wait for the bell to ring it will be too late.

Is ANYTHING you read here on these pages normal?

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 17:56 | 5186609 Number 156
Number 156's picture

Whats going to make this frighteningly  much worse is the fact that EVERYONE is doing it.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 17:56 | 5186615 khakuda
khakuda's picture

His pieces are always good, glad he didn't hang it up as planned.

Central banks realize they are trapped and must keep enabling and encouraging more debt or the charade is over. It won't fix the economy, but will end in a huge asset bubble like the last two. Next time, the post crash bubble will be reinflated by means that will scare all of us. Basically, the fiat monetary system is failing globally. Inflation or a debt jubilee is the only way out. They can't grow out of this.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:13 | 5186662 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

15 year bull market I predict with the occassional correction. I don't mind the money but the money knows nothing about the REAL world out there.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:16 | 5186671 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Most Heroin addicts die before they get clean.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:49 | 5186987 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I think you mean the only way most Heroin addicts get clean is to die.

The only problem with this 'solution' is they aren't around to enjoy their sobriety. :-)

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 05:22 | 5187843 Troy Ounce
Troy Ounce's picture

 

Eventually, capitalism will do its work. Buy physical gold and silver and try to relax.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:17 | 5186673 Unwashed
Unwashed's picture

When the asset bubble does burst, federal & state income tax revenue will crater.

The only thing central banks and governments will be able to do is print money and continue to spend.

It takes a much smarter man than I to see the endgame.

Deflation in assets? Hyperinflation in necessities? Breakdown in government services?

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:14 | 5186876 Wilcox1
Wilcox1's picture

The direction I've seen forming up definitely answers : Yes, Yes, and Yes to your questions.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:21 | 5186688 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

It will either end in Disaster, or end in the Petrodollar becoming part of a Unified G8 Currency:  SDR.

It's also very probable that the SDR will be valued not only in the currencies of its constituent parts (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP), but perhaps by REAL ASSETS: probably a Basket of PRECIOUS ASSETS (Precious Energy + Precious Materials).  Where Precious Materials = Precious Metals + Strategic Metals + Strategic Minerals.

FWIW, I think that the BRICS hold better cards for ownership or control over Precious Materials, but the G8/NATO+ hold better cards for Precious Energy (ownership or control).

If I were the BRICS, I'd be trying to cross that Goal Line first -- or they're... "fuckin' screwed" against the combined momentum of G8/NATO+.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:31 | 5186715 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

p.s. When will we see the Updated NATO+ Map on ZH?  Which includes its newest Imminent Members:  Georgia, Jordan, Jordan, Moldova.

And please color-code so that even Canada's NATO contingent can understand it.  3 colors max: NATO+, Russia, Not Russia.  And please show the "Historical progression of Security" in several charts, to help its present and future member feel more secure in the knowledge that "We got their back".  /s

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:25 | 5186900 F0ster
F0ster's picture

and if BRICs want to cross the goal line first they need to jack up the price of GOLD by taking control on the Precious Materials price descovery mechanisms (e.g. Shanghai) and shut down the west's by say oh I don't know maybe taking MASSIVE delivery at some point...

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:30 | 5186725 q99x2
q99x2's picture

"take policy to new extremes to arrest the market’s growing desire"

They are like pedophiles. They won't stop until they are locked up.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:09 | 5186858 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

The technical term for a central banker is: Fedophile.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:43 | 5186765 economicminor
economicminor's picture

There seems to be a real disconnect about inflation. It seems to me that in order to get inflation into the system, somehow purchasing power needs to be ramped up. OR goods, services and commodities need to be scarce.

As I understand inflation, it takes more money chasing the same or fewer goods. That already happened first with stocks, then with housing and autos and now again with stocks BUT this time there are many fewer participants.

SO.... how the hell is inflation going to happen for real unless something radical changes. Just printing money for the few may cause the price of a Picasso or a rare classic car to go up, even specialty high end real estate or jewelry but if you look, even Dr Copper is down from its highs as is oil and steel and....... and most housing outside the areas where those special access people live.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:12 | 5186855 khakuda
khakuda's picture

You are completely right.  Inflation has happened in asset prices and those things the wealthy buy.  Over the decades, it has also happened in the things most people buy like houses, healthcare and college tuition (note, stuff the couldn't be made in China cheaper) making those things unaffordable in a cash/savings based economy.  The only way for the masses to buy that stuff entails going into massive long term debt and the only way they can pay it off is with nominal wage increases over the 30 years of paydown.  Note, a real bitch when your job went to China, too.

As you point out, it has not happened in any substantial way in the day to day purchases of life because people have not seen their incomes budge.  You see this when you read the quarterly reports of P&G, Unilever, Walmart, McDonalds, etc, etc.  No pricing power.

So, the whole inflation debate is really a straw man.  The real problem is debt in the system which can't be repaid in nominal terms unless inflation happens.  Central banks are trying very hard, but because wages are stuck (technology, developing market labor) they are screwed. They are barely above deflation in some places and, as we saw when Lehman went down, deflation is the death knell for an economy based on credit in a fractional reserve, leveraged financial system.

So, what you should be scared of is the next move.  When central banks realize it isn't working for the real economy and all they did was cause the 3rd destabilizing asset bubble within 20 years which will also create problems, they are going to go all in.  That is when they hand everyone $1,000,000 in cash to cause inflation in the stuff you are talking about.  Big macs will cost $15 and gas will be $12 a gallon.  Debts will be repaid with debased, funny money.

It is for this reason that hard assets and precious metals make some sense in portfolios, even though they aren't participating in the stock orgy now.  It's the next desperate move on the part of central banks where they work.  Companies will see higher nominal earnings, but the inflation effect will shrink PEs.  Who knows where that balances out.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:10 | 5186866 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

When the enabler becomes the disabler, it breeds dependency. Time to pull the binky from Wall Street and K Street a likes. You're nearly grown up now, time to pull you off bottled QE milk.

It's a tough world out there, make the best of it. Use your talents rather than dependency. 

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:32 | 5187089 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

Economics has become a pseudo science that lets government and all of the civilization associated with it to live without the fiscal responsibility each and every one of us a citizens is expected to maintain in order to work, pay our bills, and succeed. All of these people, from the banks that sweeps your account at night in order to play with the big boys to the fed printing fiat at will to appease the losses of the same bankers who created bubbles galore are guilty. Until we rid our society of these vampires and the associated liberal political agenda that permits it class distinctions will get worse and worse. Elections are nothing more than peaceful overthrow of the government. Stop their stated purpose of correcting for political insanity by capturing the economy will inevitably result in the next level of government overthrow.  Hmmm wonder whatever that could be.

 

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:54 | 5187156 Playtime's Over
Playtime's Over's picture

OMG............stop it.  Or just tell me when.   I've noticed there is never any time line predictions.  Just open ended FEARl   

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:43 | 5187298 TruthTalker
TruthTalker's picture

How could there be a time line prediction - the amount of corruption, back door deals, hiding bonds in Belgium, etc - who the hell could predict when - we all know it will....

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 06:48 | 5187879 JimS
JimS's picture

Oh, that's easy. It will happen like "a thief in the night". This financial ass-fucking will continue until it doesn't. Be prepared, buy some popcorn, and sit back and watch the whole mess unfold. I am 65 and it may not happen in my lifetime, but it sure is fun watching these bankers trying to dance on the head of a pin. (P.S. the whole thing still really pisses me off, though)

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:12 | 5187199 q99x2
q99x2's picture

The FED is a central bank. World resources are getting low. The Mexican border was opened by Obama. The EU nations have no ability to print their own money. Weaponized Ebola has been introduced to Africa. Russia is flying nuclear armed bombers 50 miles off the California coast. ISIS is being armed, funded and trained by the Saudis, the US and Israel. Pakistan, a nuclear capable nation is pissed. China is claiming South China Sea resources. Holder placed the TBTF bankers above the law. The banks and all western nations are broke and you write a F'n article that questions whether the FED is going to raise interest rates. Sup Dude?

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:19 | 5187238 Frankly Speaking
Frankly Speaking's picture

It seems the author remains under the misconception that the Fed's monetary policy is designed to achieve some economic goal. Employment or inflation objectives? You are mistaken. The Fed was created for the banks, by the banks, and is there only to serve the interest of the banks. The employment and inflation goals are just fluff.

The banking community is flat ass broke. The zirp policy is another life line and ongoing BAIL OUT  for the banks. Imagine if the banks had to finance their non and under performing loans at real market/risk related rates. But if you can reduce the yield on Spanish and Italian bonds to 2-3% you can preserve capital.  ( while US credit card debts hover around 19 to 23%, part of the trickle down scenario to the people? ) And that is what this is all about. Rescuing bank capital. You may ask Yellen why those  bankrupt  Italian and Spanish economies deserve such a subsidized interest rate. To create employment? Lols. 2% for Spain, 24% for Americans?

Also on the topic of trickle down effect, how's that working for property taxes and the IRS? As a Canadian, I can attest to the fact that late tax payments invite an immediate 10% penalty, and a 12% monthly compound on arrears. That's trickle down all right. Trickle down robbery. 24 % per annum.

If the banks can not continue on zirp until the value of their casino bets have been inflated away, well, they have already told us that they will implement their bail in regime. How does that work for employment and inflation? Words versus actions people!

Save the Fed. Federalize it!

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 22:32 | 5187413 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

Way I read it, for all intents and purposes, the Fed is Federalized. It's Chief is a political appointee. The lines between Treasury and FRB are quasi grey.

If anything, the Fed is maintained as a scapegoat for a profligate congress. One that puts no stops on it's spending, then demands the Fed print "what ever it takes" to keep the wheels spinning.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 23:37 | 5187529 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Prof

yes the line is a thin one..money creation is always political and the urge is always to print more and make life easier for the voters. So far there hasn't been any form of restraint except the vague knowledge that inflation could ruin the currency.

In the system some of us see coming next, gold, held on central bank balance sheets, marked to market, will act as a tell tale. As gold prices rise in a currency the world will know that currency has been over printed...more than what that economy needed.

Freegold is the name given (actually not exactly that name) but the Euro is already structured this way.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 00:56 | 5187648 Frankly Speaking
Frankly Speaking's picture

Friend, I wish I could agree with you concerning the gold standard. But the gold standard lies at the heart of the fractional reserve banking regime. The vault masters of the gold, having realized that all of the gold is never redemed at one time, began to issue more gold receipts than was gold. Charging interest on the non existant gold.

So whether it be a gold standard, tulip standard, or fiat standard matters not. What matters is who is in control of the issuance of currency, and to whose benefit? A cabal of private bankers or the treasuries of nations? Seems someone has made that choice for us?

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 06:39 | 5187874 JimS
JimS's picture

Frankly: you are absolutely correct. Those who define "money", create "money", and then regulate said "money" are truly in power. With the Federal Reserve, our nation has given that power to a group of bankers who could give a-shit about what happens to the rest of us. The best source of how this whole sham system works is in Steven Zarlenga's "The Lost Science Of Money". This shit, fucking with any nation's monetary system, has been going on for the last 2500 years. From High Priests, to Monarchs, to dictators, and now, to a fucked-up group of bankers, whoever defines money, creates the money and regulates it, has all the power. This power has financed/caused wars, famines, and overthrown governments. It's a great book and has opened my eyes to how we got to where we are today. Read it. (for reference: I am in no way-shape-or-form connected to the author)

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 09:33 | 5188026 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Choice made by Wilson when he signed the 1913 Federal Reserve legislation.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 09:37 | 5188032 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

All this because Congress didn't want to be accountable to the electorate.

They gave away their power to issue and value currency to an unelected cabal.

Treason in 1913.

101 years of tyranny.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 12:35 | 5188340 withglee
withglee's picture

Only if we accept that interest rates are market prices, not policy levers.

Interest rates are neither "market prices" nor "policy levers" though they are classically (and fallaciously) perceived as both.

Interest collections are the vehicle for recovering broken trading promises (trader created money ... valid money, and counterfeit money ... principally government borrowing that just rolls over and over) left circulating in the marketplace after  defaults.

An interest "rate" is then simply determined by what you choose as a denominator. The best choice for denominator is "new trading promises". It is from those trading promises that the previously defaulted trades must be recovered ... thereby protecting the marketplace from inflation as dictated by the relation: INFLATION = DEFAULT - INTEREST.

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