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When Will It All Run Out?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Nothing lasts forever (except central bank dovishness) in the real world. Here is an interpretation of when the world will run out of each metal or energy source...

 

 

As Visual Capitalist notes,

There is a limited supply of these commodities – and if there are no discoveries, no price changes, and no changes in consumption, we are running out relatively soon. In my opinion, there are two caveats that are always worth considering when looking at something like this.

 

1. “Reserves” are an engineering number that are based on economic viability. Technically speaking, there are small concentrations of gold everywhere. It is just not usually viable to mine 0.1 g/t gold. When we will “run out” of each mineral in this chart is based on current reserves and prices. If the gold price doubles, then suddenly it is economic to mine more.

 

2. This chart is a reminder that something has to give. Either prices are going to have to go up, or new amazing discoveries have to be made to keep prices down. It’s basic economics, and either way it seems that there are many opportunities in the mining industry for investors and speculators on both fronts.

* * *

Of course, The Fed can just print some more oil or gold or uranium, right?

 

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Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:21 | 5186689 jaap
jaap's picture

common sense.... 2001

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:24 | 5186705 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

Current inventories at artificially low prices.

Let the price run and lots more will be found.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:29 | 5186722 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

and if there are no discoveries, no price changes, and no changes in consumption, we are running out relatively soon.

 

OMFG.  And if plants quit making oxygen, we'll run out of that too.

Does ZH pay minimum wage after 5:00 PM, or wut?

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:58 | 5186816 Publicus
Publicus's picture

Abiotic oil is generated within the Earth at all times, it will never run out. Many of the older oil wells that ran dry decades ago are partially re-filled with oil already.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:28 | 5186928 deflator
deflator's picture

 It isn't about running out is it? It is about the Earths available resources conforming to your particular political position. It isn't a maths or science problem it is a political problem and we know that people tend to align themselves politically according to their particular economic situation.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:38 | 5186952 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

left out helium

 

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:57 | 5187009 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

All of this assumes little in technological change.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:20 | 5187061 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

But what about grapes...?

I didn't see anything about grapes or wine...

just saying.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 22:05 | 5187352 GrandPaFred
GrandPaFred's picture

gmrpeabody:

 

and Homer's on this topic with "how about the beer?"

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 10:20 | 5188067 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

two words - population, exponential...

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 12:58 | 5188373 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

Yeah, like no one is working on over-population.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:39 | 5187275 deflator
deflator's picture

technology(cars,trucks,toasters,vacuum cleaners, so on and so forth) consumes energy ---(generally speaking) --not the other way around...

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 22:00 | 5187342 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

"Chart is a reminder that something has to give. Either prices are going to have to go up, or new amazing discoveries have to be made to keep prices down."

Anybody here missing whale oil?

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 17:19 | 5188927 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

I can't find any decent whale oil at a reasonable price anymore. I'm having to burn that smelly, dirty kerosene instead. What's the world coming to?

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 23:36 | 5187527 Seer
Seer's picture

Jevons Paradox

And for you Cornucopians, "technology" is not "matter," it's akin to "instructions."

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 08:06 | 5187912 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

Electric cars are starting to be distributed to the masses.  We can strike oil off the list of must have resources.

Electric cars.  Brought to you by technology.

Peak oil meet peak demand.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 10:23 | 5188068 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

Here's a clue, sherlock - electricity is not an energy source.  To make it you need coal, oil, uranium, or some other energy source.  You can make a billion electric cars - you still have to find the power to create the electricity to charge them up.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 11:06 | 5188145 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

But you won't need oil or the problems that oil causes.  Now the motoring public can tap into a variety of energies, not just one.  You left out solar, wind, fusion, geo-thermal BTW.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 11:55 | 5188248 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Let's see if you really know anything.

How many KWH does it take to charge your vehicle?

now you can make a reasonable estimate your energy usage per mile.

Now you can figure cost per mile.

The last calcs I did put just the energy cost at just over a dollar per mile, just for the energy.

Now, take away the manufacturing subsities in both the vehicle and your 'clean energy' , add in maintence(regular battery service and replacement) tires, brakes, insurance.

You get close to the true operating cost of your vehicle, about $1.60 per mile, as opposed to the $0.60 per mile for a covential vehicle tha AAA uses.

Please continue on about your Unicorn farm, it really, really is interesting.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 12:31 | 5188338 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

The energy cost per mile is much, much lower for an electric car per the DOE.  Sorry 'Arnold' I'm going with the DOE on this.

"Now, take away the manufacturing subsities in both the vehicle and your 'clean energy' , add in maintence(regular battery service and replacement) tires, brakes, insurance."

The subsidies are there to 'make the market' and get suppliers to mass produce the cars.  The price of electric cars has come way down as mass production kicks in and will continue to do so.  Every year more manufacturers are joining in and are offering more choices at lower costs.  At some point the subsidies will disappear.

As for maintenance, the electric car will need far less service.  No oil, oil filters, oil changes, air filters, fuel injectors, etc.  The only large cost is battery replacement.  Mass production will bring that cost way down.  Then the biggest maintenance item will consist of the consumer removing and replacing the battery himself.

"You get close to the true operating cost of your vehicle, about $1.60 per mile, as opposed to the $0.60 per mile for a covential vehicle tha AAA uses."

Static analysis, dude.  Costs coming down all the time and subsidies until they do.

Electric cars are far cleaner to operate and end the oil company monopoly on energy for transportation.

The unicorn farm is drawing a lot of visitors and buyers.

 

Mon, 09/08/2014 - 00:01 | 5192593 Seer
Seer's picture

And as you flood the streets with electric vehicles (going where? to non-existent jobs?) that will place a greater demand on electricity, which WILL result in higher electrical prices.

As far as "costs coming down," it's because of the subsidies.  And as wages continue to drop even faster (and less and less people employed)?

Mon, 09/08/2014 - 07:11 | 5192929 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

There won't be a 'flood' of electric cars.  Electric cars will replace the cars that are there now. 

The cars will go where they are driven.  The level of employment really isn't relevant to this discussion.

Much of the demand for electricity will come at night when there is considerable slack in the system.  This greatly reduces the cost of car operation without greatly increasing the need for new infrastructure.

The system for delivering electricity in the US is antiquated, inefficient, completely insecure and subject to monopoly for no reason other than making rich people richer.  Electric cars or no, these issues will have to be dealt with.

The costs of car production come down with increased size of market and increased production = economics 101.  If you don't understand a simple widely understood concept, I suggest you read up on economics.

Electric cars will be much cheaper to operate, so they will definitely appeal to the budget minded.

Sun, 09/07/2014 - 23:58 | 5192588 Seer
Seer's picture

So, no oil is used to create those electric vehicles?  And what about the roads (asphalt).

Hey, I have nothing against electric (I'm looking for such a vehicle to get around on my property [which has no paved roads]).  But when one advocates/promotes something one always overlooks the fact that that's an encouragement for scaling up.  The real issues is scale...

P.S. I also have solar panels, though they'e to run electric fencing (animals) in remote parts of my property.  When there are tractors that run on anything other than diesel that can do what my diesel tractor (and truck) do, Then I'll say that there's traction, but until then (and from what I see out there, it's highly unlikely).

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 02:15 | 5187753 California Nigh...
California Nightmares's picture

Phew! I had been worried. But I'll be dead when the oil runs out. 

If not, .357 magnum is close at hand,

 

Got while the gettin was good.

Enjoy the GOLDEN AGE while it lasts.

 

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 08:33 | 5187939 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

In any case 'Cali's' golden age passed 30 years ago.

Cesium much?

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 08:39 | 5187946 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

"All of this assumes little in technological change."

We are now on a technology 'merry-go-round' and new technology is imperative.

The real danger is a new dark age.

Mon, 09/08/2014 - 00:05 | 5192598 Seer
Seer's picture

Technology requires materials.

While the fabrication of materials will occur, it will do so only at greater costs.  What you and other techno-heads don't understand is that without a customer base you won't be able to achieve the low costs that you get with economies of scale: I refer to our up-coming problem as "economies of scale in reverse."

Mon, 09/08/2014 - 07:15 | 5192931 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

"What you and other techno-heads don't understand is that without a customer base you won't be able to achieve the low costs that you get with economies of scale"

Don't project America's problems on to East Asia or Russia.  There will be plenty of customers for innovation.

As R&D segues to production costs always come way, way down.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 08:36 | 5187941 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

"left out helium"

No more zeppelins!?!?!?!?!?

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 12:39 | 5188353 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

LOL. 

I looked at the article and it is not really about what you think it is about.  The article points out that helium is important for some processes, not all manufacturing and the problem is a political one.

All of these so-called resource problems are political problems and helium, as the article you cited clearly states, is no different.

LOL.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:00 | 5187169 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

I'm not saying it's an automatic solution, but the earth will have a molten insanely hot core, in other words stored energy, for the next few million years.  And the giant yellow ball in the sky will be radiating energy long after it's expansion has made the earth uninhabitable.  Just sayin...

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:39 | 5187284 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Back of the class Nihilist, the relavent varable is exergy, not energy:http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exergy

 

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 22:36 | 5187421 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

Science might yet solve our energy dilemas.  In the back of the class we read to.  In example:

The Last Question by Isaac Asimov

All you desktop scientists who claim to project 100 years in advance when we didn't even have computers 100 years ago are laughably arrogant.  We may survive as a species and continue to find ways to power our modern society.  We may not.  Only a fool would claim either with certainty.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 01:15 | 5187686 saveandsound
saveandsound's picture

However, at the moment it seems the bully (USA) has choosen to beat up his classmates (resource rich countries) instead of inventing new ways for survival. Taking into account that some of his classmates (Russia, China, etc.) own nuclear weapons, this doesn't look like a really smart approach.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 06:08 | 5187860 DetectiveStern
DetectiveStern's picture

Yes! The myopic view of the world that most people focus on baffles me. Anyone who thinks what the world is like now will carry on forever is an idiot.It's never happened like that and it never will.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 10:57 | 5188126 Miner
Miner's picture

@NihilistZero Thank you for the link to that short story.  It was quite lovely.

Repeatedly humankind has faced the untenable threat of destruction from resource exhaustion.  What will we do when the buffalo are gone?  What will we do when we run out of whale oil?  What will we do when we can't grow any more grain?  Repeatedly we've proven ourselves capable of adapting in remarkable ways.  This too shall pass.

If you strip everything else away, Humans are made of the stuff required to make humans.  The waste we excrete is made of the stuff we don't need to make humans, but do need to make food.  A world of 70 Billion people might have to close that loop a little tighter than we do now, but it seems unlikely we'll starve to death. (for technical reasons*)

I welcome the prospect of immortality largely for the joy of seeing these advancements.  My parents description of when they first got electricity and when they first saw a television are fantastic memories.

 

*- Clarification: People starve to death today for political reasons, power and suffering at the whims of others. This is a real problem and an actual threat to humanity.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 23:08 | 5187487 acetinker
acetinker's picture

Sometimes I run across an arrogant prick and I just can't resist calling him/her out.  Back of the class, Bob.  It's relevant, not relavent.

Fucktard!

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 12:35 | 5188346 Brutlstrudl
Brutlstrudl's picture

Lighten up.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:39 | 5187291 deflator
deflator's picture

 Same argument the FED uses for infinite money printing...jus sayin'...

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 23:41 | 5187535 Seer
Seer's picture

Energy, however, is only ONE component...  The point of this article is to note such.  (though there's no projection on/of water, which, if I recall correctly, is one of three essential things to support life: food, shelter and water).

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 02:02 | 5187743 PT
PT's picture

We drink water.  We piss it out.  It is still there.  The sun evaporates the water and purifies it again.  Then it rains.  We will never have a water shortage as long as the sun keeps shining.  We may have too many people living in the wrong places.  Or we may have too many people.  But the water is still there.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 17:57 | 5189035 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

The water will still be there, but it will all be owned by the Rothschild family.

Mon, 09/08/2014 - 00:10 | 5192606 Seer
Seer's picture

Um, depends on where you are.

Further, and I know this because I'm my own water-treatment plant operator (have my own well), it takes energy and materials to get that water (no water is pure) to a state of potability.  Yeah, what did our ancestors do? good question, lots got sick (and died); perhaps our systems, due to the caustic environment that we've created (refer to Fukushima as an example), aren't quite as robust...

But, yes, that water cycle depends on the sun.  It's nice to see others who actually have a concept of how the earth's systems work.

 

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 08:45 | 5187957 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

"the earth will have a molten insanely hot core"

Yes.  We have access to two 'stars'.  The one in the sky and the one at the center of the planet.  Currently we get our hydrocarbons and geothermal from the second star.  At some point we will access this energy more actively.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:03 | 5187021 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Suck your icy Coke down fast until you hear that bubbly all empty sound. Wait a few minutes and go back for that last sweet sip.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 22:25 | 5187401 Captain Obvious.
Captain Obvious.'s picture

Gotta give you a thumbs up for that gem.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 22:57 | 5187471 acetinker
acetinker's picture

You got a shitload of red arrows for your observation, but you're probably right.  If Mother Earth is constantly producing more oil, would the oil companies want you to know that?  Dinosaur bones my ass!

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 23:49 | 5187551 Seer
Seer's picture

"If Mother Earth is constantly producing more oil, would the oil companies want you to know that?"

Fuck!

You're right.  Everything is one big fucking hoax!  Now, what the fuck are you going to do about it tinkerbell?  NOTHING.  Because there is nothing that you CAN do: other than offer your life up to "expose" something (which will likely continue to be suppressed [if that's the case]).

The oil companies are starting to get their butts kicked.  Margins and sanction activity and lowering wages (less people being able to buy/afford their products), you'd think that being able to roll out a bunch more energy would ignite the world's economy and allow them to widen margins back out (or at the very least not have to go after oil that's miles under the ocean floor).

Naw!  It's too much fun to try drilling miles under the ocean floor and encountering massive litigation as a result of failing to be able to manage the horribly complex environment and systems.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 08:05 | 5187909 acetinker
acetinker's picture

What can I do about it?  I can attempt to discern fact from fiction.  Then, I can relate the facts to those who don't pay attention, and they begin to question the things they thought they knew.  When (not if) a critical mass of skepticism is reached, the illusion dies.  That's what I can do.

I harbor no delusion (as you seem to) that our situation will improve without substantial personal hardship.  I've already started down this path.  I am self-employed.  I do not trade, or even have a 401k.  I refuse gubmint work, I live by the grace of private interests alone.

I spend most of my time interacting with other small business owners.  They are beginning to realize that I am not really a loon, after all.  I've been traveling this path for a few years now.  It ain't easy, but it's not impossible either.

I don't know you, Seer, but it's almost as if you expect someone else to "fix" things so you can be more comfortable in your own situation.  They won't.  It's on you.

So, I can make observations and try to relate what I find to you, and others.  If in the process your feathers get ruffled, well, that's on you too.

That's what I can do.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 08:51 | 5187961 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

Here's another thing you can do: quit playing their game.  Burn less oil.  Promote alternative energy. Not because it's running out.  It isn't.  Do it to empower yourself and to relegate them to the dustbin of history.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 19:42 | 5189295 acetinker
acetinker's picture

MF, (MalteseFalcon, I mean),  I live 8 miles from my shop.  It is further from the core of the metro than my house.  That means I don't sit idling in traffic.  Every day, I drive past thousands of poor bastards sitting in bumper-to-bumper purgatory.

I could ride a bike I suppose, but I'm no spring chicken and my time is valuable to me, and the ones who depend on me.

The trick to all this I find, is that you have to be adaptable.  You (I) don't do today what you did yesterday simply because you've always done it that way.  Or at least I try, y'know?

Mon, 09/08/2014 - 00:15 | 5192614 Seer
Seer's picture

No, I don't expect ANYONE to FIX a god damn thing!  The PROBLEM lies in "solutions."  Go ahead, Tinkerbell, find ANY posting of mine where I tell people what they should do: I say plenty what people ought not do.

But those who flail around conspiracy for this that is provable fact, well... that's when I like to "do something about it" (like bash moron's skulls in so that STOP doing BAD things, like using fucked up logic [which really is NO logic]).

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 04:31 | 5187816 Divine
Divine's picture

Even If there was Abiotic Oil being generated inside planet earth, the exponential function would ass rape us all.

 

Learn some arithmetics  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOykY2SMbZ0 

 

Usage of hydrocarbons was growing about 7 % Y/Y for many decades, it means we consumed more oil in 10 years than previous history of the world.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 11:09 | 5187966 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

The birth rate in developed countries is now well below replacement.  The population of first world 'high consumers' is dropping rapidly.  The birth rate for the rest of the world is expected to follow and world population will peak and start falling in 50 years or so.

The population 'crisis' and the resource 'crisis' are over.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 07:47 | 5187897 hairInTheSoup
hairInTheSoup's picture

-32 as i write, it's amazing how much the sheep can dislike to be told he is being lied to by ptb ("if oil was abiotic, They would tell us", yeah right) & reject truth at once without taking the very little energy required to google it & to try to understand the lie by themselves.

or why they lie :

if oil rate was to come down to a price relevant to its  neverending nature, it would create such a massive deflation... so centrral banksters will never llet that happen, so fossil it is !

sweet dreams to those that are too mind programmed to see the truth when they are confronted to it

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:59 | 5186822 deflator
deflator's picture

"and if there are no discoveries, no price changes, and no changes in consumption, we are running out relatively soon."

 

  Your comment reeks of political rhetoric disguised as economic theory.

 

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:07 | 5186853 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Uh, Dudski, that is a direct quote from the article you didn't read;)

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:19 | 5186894 deflator
deflator's picture

 I did read the article, OMFG...

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:39 | 5186936 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Then what are you using for a brain?

You're attacking me as being political, for pointing out the stupidity of economic predictions based on NO CHANGE?

 

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:47 | 5186976 deflator
deflator's picture

 Maybe I have a rat in my pocket but  "we" know that people tend to align themselves politically according to their particular economic situation.

 

OMFG.  And if plants quit making oxygen, we'll run out of that too.

 

Does ZH pay minimum wage after 5:00 PM, or wut?

 

 

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:03 | 5187026 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

We  also know that some minimum wage paying blogs, maintain that there is no difference between Democrats and Republicans, while trending left of Lenin on all political issues.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:03 | 5187182 PLira
PLira's picture

Never forget that all is not what it seems.

Governments and Corporations and Individuals worldwide have paid, dedicated commenter's on ZH to reroute, attack, marginalize, discredit, slam, upvote and downvote amongst dozens of other motives to direct comments on ZH.

Everyone on here has a motive for spelling out their narrative their own way. Whether that be self satisfaction all the way to monetary gain.

That old grain of salt thing. Nothing is sacred and true unless you witnessed it. Dozens of videos online how one can/has altered supposed realtime video with shit that ain't real.

Trust nothing but yer eyeballs.

 

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 22:14 | 5187361 GrandPaFred
GrandPaFred's picture

PLira:

 

well the hooker looked nice last night

this morning when I l@@ked -

'ouch, my eyeballs'

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 23:38 | 5187467 PLira
PLira's picture

Man, the stories I could tell. I did so but deleted them as most were stupid young Naval Aviators gettin their kicks.. Saigon, Pusan, Olongapo City, Shit River, clap of the trap, the Spider Bar, Guam, Korea, Mt SanSubi and so many others

Bottom line, don't eat whore' pussies.

If you weren't there, it won't register.

Semper Fi MotherFuckers.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:24 | 5187247 knukles
knukles's picture

Heheee he he heeeh

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:00 | 5187175 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

"OMFG."

What are you, a twelve year old girl?

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 22:48 | 5187458 deflator
deflator's picture

maybe..

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:02 | 5186831 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

And no recycling?   Even with steel, 70% of each years production gets recycled eventually.   Percentages for more expensive metals like copper and silver are even higher.

The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:37 | 5186945 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Ahhhhhh the scarcity deniers, another one of my favorite demos on ZH!!

Right up there with the neocon globalist pretending to be libritarians until Obama's gone!!

Whether shit is in the ground, is not the issue, it's wether it affordable to extract and use it, that matters economically!!! And in that regard, ALL of these elements and energy resources will become very very scarce going forward!!

Population growth, the economic growth and appetite of emerging markets, and the energy required to extract the element or resource to utilize, are all upward pressures, not to mention, as this stuff gets more expensive, it might get too expensive to use, but that won't change the price, because their is no viable alternative to help drive the price down and incentivize others to innovate, it's a monopoly product, buy at what price we say or fuck you and walk or grab a blanket!

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:03 | 5186997 deflator
deflator's picture

 You know what pisses me off about political rhetoric like, "The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones."?

 

 I know where it comes from!!! Very well funded Corporate/Government think tanks like the Hudson Institute.

 

 What they are extrapolating with a smile is, "the money printing age didn't end because we ran out of paper". 

 

 We just ran out of toilet paper...


Fri, 09/05/2014 - 23:52 | 5187558 Seer
Seer's picture

You've done an excellent job of hijacking this thread.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 09:01 | 5187974 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

"Whether shit is in the ground, is not the issue, it's wether it affordable to extract and use it, that matters economically!!! "

Dude, when the 'shit' is no longer in the ground extraction is no longer necessary.  Sorting, yes.  Extraction, no.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:12 | 5187045 deflator
deflator's picture

 Where does the recycled steel go? Possibly on all those empty sea containers headed Eastwardly bound towards China? Yeah. I bet their economic theories are politically motivated and not based on some imaginary economic "science" just like "ours" are.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 07:47 | 5187899 NoPension
NoPension's picture

In 50-75 years, I predict robots will be mining our landfills. I also see a day when the "burning" of fossil fuel will be considered insane, given the many uses besides fuel.
Some things I remember reading, etc;

8 minutes of sunlight equals all the annual energy consumed in the US.

Most silver is consumed and "lost" in the industrial process.

Fossil fuel is highly concentrated sunlight.

And the following is mine. I claimed and argued that ALL energy used today is solar. In one way or another. Nuclear? Well I suppose the radiation was created by stars, along with everything else.

Enjoy the good times, Bitchez

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:36 | 5186943 UrbanBard
UrbanBard's picture

Prices vary to adjust for changes in supply, demand and technology. When governments interfere with prices, they distort market signals. Thus, they keep people from conserving, adopting substitutes, and making changes in fashion.

These charts assume that the current manipulation will continue to the end, but that is highly unlikely. The US Dollar will soon stop being the world's reserve currency. It is becoming increasingly more expensive to persuade people to hold onto dollars or US Treasuries.

When the dollar goes bust, so will the foreign exchange and commodity markets. Prices will rise to their replacement level. People will use less or become more efficient in a commodity's use. New technologies will deliver goods and services which don't use these commodities.

In the 60s, it was assumed that the world would soon run out of copper, mostly from its use in telephone cables. Along came fiber-optic technologies and the copper shortage never developed.

How could fuel shortages be solved? Let's ignore that higher prices will cause us to find more energy.

Thorium based nuclear power should be cheap and efficient. We have known supplies of Thorium on earth to power our electrical energy needs for a 100 thousand years. There is more Thorium on the moon.

The excess heat from those plants could disassociate hydrogen and oxygen out of water. CO2 could be removed from the air to make liquid fuels to replace gasoline and diesel. Fuel thus becomes recyclable. We never run out.

It all depends on price. These new technologies are not happening now because the price of fuels is being held down.

Consequently, that chart is rather misleading.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 22:56 | 5187462 deflator
deflator's picture

 Fuck no they don't...what is misleading is your 

Spurious 

 attempt at making your political view a science by government decree.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 23:50 | 5187554 schatzi
schatzi's picture

Good post.

Price is the strongest variable in this equation. It has always been a catalyst for change and innovation. To assume a ceteris paribus situation is completely pointless and turns any long term assumptions into a mere brainfart.

As prices go up, the pressure to search and find alternatives increases. The pressure to innovate increases on both material aquisition and efficient consumption thereof.

The other aspect not mentioned, is the higher rate of metal recycling as prices go up. Most metals are not consumed and can be reused.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 02:07 | 5187748 PT
PT's picture

Take the Dodo, for instance.  As the Dodo became rarer, people were willing to pay for their delicious flesh.  So then some enterprising entrepreneurs started up some Dodo farms and boutique Dodo restaurants and used the profits to make more Dodo farms and increase volume and decrease prices and pretty soon - oh, wait!

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 09:06 | 5187982 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

The flesh of the dodo was not delicious and there were ready substitutes.

Your words for the day:  chicken and syllogism

Sun, 09/07/2014 - 10:43 | 5190386 PT
PT's picture

Oh, that explains everything.  The Dodo went extinct because people preferred to eat chicken.  Err, maybe I shoulda looked up "syllogism" first.

Your word for the day:  Metaphor

But you may need to contemplate it a little longer to really let it sink in.

Mon, 09/08/2014 - 07:20 | 5192941 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

Metaphor?

Today's word for you is non-sequitur.

 

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 23:58 | 5187574 Seer
Seer's picture

Another fucking cornucopian!

Spout off all sorts of simplistic economic shit and POOF, that's IT!

Shit works based on scale.  "Scale" is starting to get hammered because people are becoming increasingly poorer.  And, no, it's not because govt or politicians or some secret cabal is responsible, it's due to the FACT that there are now 7+ billion people (and growing) on the planet and the available resources have not magically multiplied themselves*.  750 MILLION folks in India live on $0.50/day.  Where is the volume growth going to come from?

"Thorium based nuclear power should be cheap and efficient. We have known supplies of Thorium on earth to power our electrical energy needs for a 100 thousand years"

Pulled right from your ass...

"There is more Thorium on the moon."

I rest my case, another fucking cornucopian.  You folks do a bang up job supporting TPTB!

"It all depends on price. These new technologies are not happening now because the price of fuels is being held down."

Perhaps, Sherlock, it's because people can't afford to pay more for fuels?  If prices got pushed up there would be even LESS people being able to afford- and if you punch a hole in volume you're going to end up collapsing the entire structure.

"Consequently, that chart is rather misleading."

Consequently you're and idiot.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 01:57 | 5187738 schatzi
schatzi's picture

Wow what a rant.

I'll give you a simple example of adaptive behaviour.

1973 oil supply shock. Apart from typical government intervention such as rationing, it initiated a drastic increase in fuel efficiency. A typical modern European car consumes about 20% of the heavy US models of the early 70s. It also increased R&D into renewables. Massively so.

I'm involved in energy innovations and you'd be surprised at the concepts being worked at currently. Biggest weakness of renewables is that their supply is not constant, therefore the achilles heel is cheap energy storage, which is something that is currently being solved. Then you have the wastage in energy consumption - especially heating/airconditioning which consumes 40% of household energy. There's quite a few interesting developments on that front too in regards to achieving low energy housing. The industry is really buzzing, so yeah, I believe we can and will adapt.

 

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 09:11 | 5187990 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

LOL.  If you insist on talking history and technology to a politico, they'll just run away.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 09:09 | 5187987 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

The population problem is being worked on and will be solved.  Patience is all that is required.

And, no, it isn't being solved by plagues or wars.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:31 | 5187083 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Almost all of the expensive elements will be replaced by engineered nano-materials.  That is in the works.  Platinum, palladium, and other catlysts are already giving way to engineered surfaces in silicon/magnesium nanomaterials.  Super-strong alloys are being constructed layer by layer from carbon tubes and graphenes.  The really amazing materials are carbon and silicon and there is no shortage.  The oceans cover the greatest concentration of REs and metals in the form of smoker deposits and we're just starting to tap into them in New Guinea.  When the economic incentives are there the technological solutions materialize. 

Corruption (politics) is the main cause of shortages ... not natural resources.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 23:21 | 5187482 deflator
deflator's picture

no they wont... and you and yours isn't corrupt? hmmm. makes me wonder...

 

yes I wonder https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7iF26wKF-_M

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bP6aVG6L1w

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 00:04 | 5187584 Seer
Seer's picture

"Corruption (politics) is the main cause of shortages ... not natural resources."

So, if we got rid of all govts then all 7+ billion of us would have a plethora of resources and that we could consume as much as we wanted?

Technology is a process.  Takes it plus energy and matter to actually "produce" (actually "transform") something.

Cornucopia is the main cause of resource depletion...

 

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 09:17 | 5188001 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

The problem is mainly political.  That being said, population needs to be controlled lest population growth turns a political problem into a technological one.

Population control is easily done thru controlling the 'birthing' process.

Mon, 09/08/2014 - 00:20 | 5192618 Seer
Seer's picture

"Political" WHAT THE FUCK DOES THAT MEAN?

Boil it down.

It means some sort of "collective" agreement between/within a group of people.

"population needs to be controlled lest population growth turns a political problem into a technological one."

Mother Nature is technical?

Mon, 09/08/2014 - 07:26 | 5192956 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

It means the problems that occur with the current level of population arise because of disagreement between men.  Not because of lack technical knowledge or resources to solve the problem. 

There is a higher level of population where our current technology could not easily solve these problems.  Best to avoid that level of population.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:51 | 5187143 knukles
knukles's picture

Methinks at times we've entered the Twilight Zone of comments around here.....
I'm wondering not about my future so much anymore as the mental well being of those about us.
Huh I hadn't thought about the plants quitting making oxygen if they don't have CO2 .....  LOL

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:49 | 5187313 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I've stopped wondering and now know for sure ;-)

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 01:53 | 5187735 PT
PT's picture

Sorry guys, it's all my fault.  I was going to try and solve one or two of these problems just for fun, but I had a couple of things I needed to sort out first, including but not limited to acquisition of capital, resources, R&D.  Instead I'm still struggling to just keep myself alive, plus I waste waaaaaaaayyy too much time blabbering away here on ZH.  I'll get on to solving these problems as soon as I can.  I'm particularly interested in the energy problem.  But don't wait for me.  And definitely don't hold your breath.

Still not sure I agree that we have any "rare minerals" shortage.  We build crap.  People buy it.  It breaks.  People throw it away.  They buy more crap.  Can't we find whatever we need in our rubbish tips?

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 02:29 | 5187765 California Nigh...
California Nightmares's picture

The more efficiency, the less resilience.

 

Also, as we find ways to solve the problems of resource availabililty, consumption increases and we fuckers have babies.

 

Ebola might fix this, but only if it depopulates the consuming ("developed") nations like the USA.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:33 | 5186735 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It's because captain nemo will soon tell us where the rest of the stuff is under the sea.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:47 | 5186775 Bangalore Equit...
Bangalore Equity Trader's picture

Listen! Let me make myself clear.

These inventory levels are based on what? Who crawled down into that oil well and counted the floating barrels?

If a company could boost their stock price by misrepresenting their "proven" inventory levels, do you think they would?

That's all I have to say here.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 00:04 | 5187586 Seer
Seer's picture

Meanwhile everyone has seemingly been perfectly fine with the predictions on gold and silver production.

Hypocrites...

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 09:20 | 5188008 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

The markets are all controlled, so to the extent that free markets contain valuable information, it is not available.

Information about important resources, oil being an obvious one, are government secrets.  You'll never know.  Because information is power and they aren't sharing power.

Mon, 09/08/2014 - 00:25 | 5192620 Seer
Seer's picture

"Information about important resources, oil being an obvious one, are government secrets. "

Again, get rid of governments and you'll still have the same basic issues/problems.

The scale that things are running in and the complexities involved are, as many have noted, pretty open for error and correction: in EITHER direction.

I do not believe that everything is being withheld for some "secret" purpose.

Mon, 09/08/2014 - 07:32 | 5192962 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

"Again, get rid of governments and you'll still have the same basic issues/problems."

Simply getting rid of government will not solve these problems.

"The scale that things are running in and the complexities involved are, as many have noted, pretty open for error and correction: in EITHER direction."

I agree.  Whatever systems do not need scale for some valid economic or political reason should be decentralized.  The political reasons should be subject to regular scrutiny.

But to re-emphasize, the true state of oil reserves is not and will never be made publicly available.  All studies on the topic are based on incomplete data at best and therefore are in some sense incomplete.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:11 | 5186867 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

That, or fewer people.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:53 | 5187148 knukles
knukles's picture

eeee bol aaaah

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:22 | 5187232 acetinker
acetinker's picture

Sung to the tune of Ri-co-la!  Eh?  I owe you an apology.  Ya pissed me off some time ago, and I've had some difficulty overcoming that.

Me and the blindman have had similar relations, but we're cool now, I think.  A C-130 just roared over me.  I'm close to Dobbins ARB.  It wasn't just flying, it was bookin' ass!

Anyway, as I was sayin', you may be a dickhead and I am certainly an asshole, or you may be the asshole and I the dickhead... it's a fine line after all.

However, we can work together, we dickheads and assholes to deconstruct the trap that was laid for us, can't we?

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:46 | 5187253 knukles
knukles's picture

Unnecessary.  Accepted.  All's cool.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 22:22 | 5187391 acetinker
acetinker's picture

Yeah, it was necessary for me, at least.  Took me awhile to 'get' blindman and it took me awhile to 'get' you.

There's a whole bunch of folks, like slewie-the-pi-rat, who just don't show up anymore.  I never understood the first fkn thing he wrote, but s/he had a message to convey.  More recently janus.  That 'let me tell you about the knee grow' schtick had me in tears.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:13 | 5187214 teslaberry
teslaberry's picture

yea the only thing i learned from this article is that it will be obsolete as to its soonest prediction when antimoney DOES NOT run out in the early 20's. 

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 07:38 | 5187893 hairInTheSoup
hairInTheSoup's picture

bs concerning oil : it is highly ARTIFICIALLY over estimated because of (thanks to if you're a oil magnat / bankster) the fossil oil paradigm

 

(truth being oil is abiotic & a neverending resource, one of the greatest conspiracy/lie of our time in fact)

Mon, 09/08/2014 - 00:28 | 5192621 Seer
Seer's picture

All you people who believe this shit are really going to be in for a let down when you don't get your fix.  And you'll run around blaming whatever you can...

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:03 | 5186835 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

We will never run out of energy, it is only the cost of alternatives that dictates their use.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:32 | 5187082 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Long fire wood ~ two cords.  Delivered cost from $95.00 for split, seasoned oak, locally.

For reference, a cord of wood should have roughly the heating capacity of one ton of coal.

 

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:43 | 5187111 falconflight
falconflight's picture

Face cord or full cord?  But, even a face cord would be a pretty good price, especially delivered and seasoned.  I'm cutting and splitting all of my own this year...just because.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:10 | 5187203 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Full cord.  I cut my own too.  At that price, I must be a stubborn old Kraut,

  or maybe I just like the splinters:)

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:46 | 5187302 falconflight
falconflight's picture

It's a manly endeavor, even if that's no longer an acceptable point of view.  Eff them all.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 00:09 | 5187592 Seer
Seer's picture

"For reference, a cord of wood should have roughly the heating capacity of one ton of coal."

Um, not all wood is created equal.

Feel free to take cottonwood, I'll take apple wood (wish).

I have little idea on how much wood "costs" as I cut my own.  Fuel and such, and aches and pains...

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 09:26 | 5188017 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

Peak wood.  A condition that has occurred many times in history and is occurring now.  No panic.

Mon, 09/08/2014 - 00:30 | 5192624 Seer
Seer's picture

Not sure why your were down-voted, because deforestation has been pretty well practiced.

Mon, 09/08/2014 - 07:34 | 5192965 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

Tree hugger?

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:25 | 5187246 Bingo Hammer
Bingo Hammer's picture

I love looking at maps and finding brand NEW countries like.....OCEANIA.....WTF????? 

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 02:17 | 5187756 PT
PT's picture

I think "Oceania" means "Australia plus a whole heap of little islands that are not Australia but we lumped them all in with Australia because they are close by and we really didn't want to name them all individually and we didn't want to leave them out either."

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:22 | 5186697 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Wa are never at a loss for words to predict the unpredictable.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:11 | 5186873 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Uhmmm... well, the thing is... uhhh... hmm.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:23 | 5186698 malek
malek's picture

Now for giggles please show those charts as created in 2000, 1990, 1980, 1970, ...

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:55 | 5187006 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

Now for giggles please show those charts as created in 2000, 1990, 1980, 1970, ...

If they discussed the possibility of fusion as a source of energy, they'd each have at least one thing in common: "Practical power from fusion will take another twenty years to develop".

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:32 | 5187088 deflator
deflator's picture

yep. cold fusion in all those timeframes mentioned are 20 years away and always will be...

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 00:11 | 5187595 Seer
Seer's picture

Man, it was fusion that got my attention.  Once I realized that we'd already had cheap and abundant energy (oil) and that that allowed us to balloon our population and fuck up all kinds of shit, well...  and folks look to crank the record up again...

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:22 | 5186701 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Silver is looking way underpriced..

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:27 | 5186712 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Platinum even more so. It is hard to replace when you need its chemical properties.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:23 | 5186702 Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

Perhaps the author needs to refer back to the "Club of Rome's" prognostications in the 1970s.  It all ran out by 2000 and now we're just living on the electronic 1s and 0s output by central banks.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:37 | 5186747 Cheduba
Cheduba's picture

Exactly, these are just scarcity memes. I worked at a copper mine and when the price rose above a certain level, specific mines reopened because it was then profitable to extract those lower grades of copper. When the price dropped, that mine shut down.

If the prices rise high enough, we'll start mining garbage, for crying out loud. You will never "run out" of materials, you will just cut back on consumption of commodities until prices return to normal levels.

I love this quote: "If there are no discoveries, no price changes, and no changes in consumption, we are running out relatively soon."

This makes perfect sense because obviously live in a static world with no advances in technology and extremely stable prices.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:51 | 5186992 Stormtrooper
Stormtrooper's picture

"WE" meaning the current generation and 1-2 more?  So, the price goes up and "WE" extract the low grade stuff.  What is left for generation 3 and up to extract?

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 09:45 | 5188044 Lanka
Lanka's picture

Very low grade, then extremely low grade, then mine tailings, then landfills, etc.  

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 20:41 | 5187099 deflator
deflator's picture

This makes perfect sense because obviously(we) live in a static world with no advances in technology and extremely stable prices.T

 

 This makes perfect sense because "we" know governments will continue to print and grow...despite and concommitant with Austrian/Corporate economic "theory".

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:02 | 5186833 Freddie
Freddie's picture

This is the New World (Order) or Modern World (Order) and they can always print more.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 21:04 | 5187187 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"Perhaps the author needs to refer back to the "Club of Rome's" prognostications in the 1970s...."

Party on Dude! Oil is gonna dip below $10/bbl any day now. Its just around the next corner! /sarc

 

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 09:31 | 5188022 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

Gasoline priced in gold or silver or many other "real' assets has been stable over time.

Don't confuse a dollar problem with a resource problem.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 00:16 | 5187602 Seer
Seer's picture

"Perhaps the author needs to refer back to the "Club of Rome's" prognostications in the 1970s."

For sure, things are highly complex.  The general notion, however, is sound and is still progressing.

Claiming that because something hasn't happened yet that it won't (which would really badger all the Christians who believe in Christ returning) is poor logic.  If that were the case then no one would get cancer.

Oh, and imagine the Rockefellers et al back in the early 1900s being told, as they sat there watching oil bubbling to the earth's surface, that in the future they'd be having to drill miles under the ocean floor to get it...

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 02:44 | 5187774 Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

I read somewhere that "on a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero".  So should we all be worried about dying next week?

When I started computer programming, the computers were the size of a decent sized room.  Now everyone's pocket phone is many times more powerful than those computers.  The history of mankind's technology is continually inventing new materials from what were once fairly useless materials while learning how to get more functional benefit from less resources.

Anyone who understands the concept of entropy knows it is all "running down".  But it does rather matter whether the process will complete in 1 year, 100 years or 100 trillion years.

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 14:27 | 5188499 Grouchy Marx
Grouchy Marx's picture

"When I started computer programming, the computers were the size of a decent sized room." 

When I started eating chocolate bars, they were the size of a decent sized room. Now, they are the size of a thumbnail, and for more money. 

Materials aren't like information technology. We have passed peak chocolate, and are also passing the peaks of other materials. Population increases while material stores decrease. Way before materials run out, we will see: a) dramatically higher materials costs across the board, and b) dramatically lower wages around the world. Material is wealth, so increasing poverty (material per capita) will be the outcome of those trends.

Food for thought while you munch on your nano-Snickers bar that came in a deceptively large package. 

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 09:33 | 5188025 MalteseFalcon
MalteseFalcon's picture

"Club of Rome's" prognostications in the 1970s." were wrong.  Timing matters.

Who is the 'Club of Rome' and what is their agenda?  What is the quality of their thinking?

Mon, 09/08/2014 - 00:31 | 5192628 Seer
Seer's picture

Here, here's something that quantifies how it's turned out:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/limits-to-growth-wa...

Feel free to quote from it.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:26 | 5186708 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

investing in lead is always a good idea. They come in these neat little ingots.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:38 | 5186749 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

...with a nice copper coating...

 

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:42 | 5186759 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

I ordered some investment-grade lead ingots, and the darn little buggers were ROUND!  Can you believe that?  They were nice enough to give me a whopping 5000 of them in one box, but the little buggers are awfully small and pointy.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:26 | 5186925 hendrik1730
hendrik1730's picture

Yeah, but they can be delivered from a distance, no? LOL

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 18:50 | 5186779 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Good observation.  Actually what is even more critical is the relative supply of... Lead and Uranium vs Unobtainium.

Avatar wasn't just a hit movie.  It was a metaphor for the US and literary foreshadowing of things to come right here on planet Terra.

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 19:06 | 5186851 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Hey, crypto-stalker, do you actually have something to say? 

Or are you just a creepy Clingon, who likes to junk me?

Fri, 09/05/2014 - 22:03 | 5187350 Ocean22
Ocean22's picture

Yes Kirk. It's called "revelation of the method". They are showing us in Hollywood our fate. Those movies and tv shows are not just for fun anymore. The tv show "Life without people" is no joke. It's coming. When u know what to look for, it's shocking how much they are telling us in Hollywood.

http://youtu.be/ZLMkO3oztT0

Sat, 09/06/2014 - 00:18 | 5187607 Seer
Seer's picture

Yes, there's been some "between the lines" messaging going on.  Have to wonder how many people actually pick up on this...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!