This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The West Without Water
Submitted by Erico Tavares of Sinclair & Co.
The West Without Water: An Interview with Dr. B. Lynn Ingram
Dr. B. Lynn Ingram is a professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Science at UC Berkeley, California. The primary goal of her research is to assess how climates and environments have changed over the past several thousand years based on the geochemical and sedimentologic analysis of aquatic sediments and archaeological deposits, with a particular focus on the US West.
She is the co-author of “The West without Water: What Past Floods, Droughts, and Other Climatic Clues Tell Us about Tomorrow” together with Dr. Frances Malamud-Roam, which received great reviews.
In this interview, Dr. Ingram shares her thoughts on the current drought in the US Southwest within the larger climate record and potential implications for the future.
E. Tavares: Thank you for sharing your thoughts with us today. Your research focuses on long-range geoclimatic trends using a broad sample of historical records. In this sense, “The West without Water”, which we vividly recommend reading, provides a very grounded perspective on the weather outlook for the US Southwest going forward. So let’s start there. What prompted you to write this book?
L. Ingram: My co-author and I decided to write this book because our findings, and those of our colleagues, were all showing that over the past several thousand years, California and the West have experienced extremes in climate that we have not seen in modern history - the past 150 years or so. Floods and droughts far more catastrophic than we can even imagine. We felt it was important to bring these findings to the attention of the broader public, as these events tend to repeat themselves. So we need to prepare, just as we prepare for large earthquakes in California.
ET: When you say “West”, which regions are you referring to?
LI: In the book we focus on the climate history of California and the Southwest, but also bring in examples and comparisons with other western states as appropriate (such as Oregon and Washington, Nevada, Utah, etc.), as the entire region experiences similar storms and is controlled by similar climate that originates in the Pacific Ocean.
ET: What type of evidence have you used in reaching your conclusions? How accurate are these records?
LI: In the book we bring together many lines of evidence, ranging from tree-ring records to sediment cored from beneath lakes, estuaries, and the ocean. Paleoclimatologists – those that study past climate change using geologic evidence – study various aspects of these cores, including the fossils in them, the chemistry of the fossils and the sediments, and pollen and charcoal remains. The charcoal provides evidence about past wildfires. The archaeological record also contains important clues about past climate and environments and how they impacted human populations.
ET: Can you walk us through some of the major climatic events of the past thousand years in that part of the US? How unusual was the 20 century in that context?
LI: We had a relatively dry period during the Medieval Warm Period, 900-1400AD. There were several prolonged periods of drought that lasted decades to over a century during that time. That period was followed by a cooler, wetter period (the Little Ice Age) that continued until the 19 century. However, the tree-ring records suggest that the 20 century was unusually wet, meaning we had fewer droughts on average than the previous 1000 years.
ET: Based on what you just described, what the current drought may be telling us is that we could be seeing the start of a decadal “mean reversion” to much drier conditions going forward. Is this correct?
LI: Yes – actually the past decade in California and the West has been pretty dry, and the concern is that these climate conditions could continue for several more decades. We've seen these broader cycles of wet-dry in the past.
ET: And what drives the long-term climate variability in the West?
LI: Over the long-term, natural climate variations are driven by a number of factors, including the ocean temperatures in the north Pacific (the so-called “Pacific Decadal Oscillation”), the El Nino Southern Oscillation, sunspots and even slight changes in the earth’s orbit over thousands of years. Volcanic eruptions can also impact climate. The human-caused increase in greenhouse gases is also impacting our climate, on top of those natural causes, and warming will have a number of affects, including reduced snowpack, drier soils and vegetations and increased wildfires.
ET: Presumably there were Native American populations who went through those protracted periods of dryness. How did they manage to survive? Is there anything we can learn from that?
LI: Actually during the medieval droughts, the Ancestral Pueblo or Anasazi civilization that inhabited the four corners region, whose populations had grown during the wetter periods leading up to the droughts, suffered greatly. There is evidence for conflict, disease and finally mass migration out of their region. The native populations in California also had increased violence, malnutrition and abandoned sites in search of water and other resources. We can learn that even during the wetter times we need to prepare for the eventual dry climate that always follows, as that is the nature of our variable climate here.
ET: These findings are quite concerning. Of course we have the benefit of advanced technologies now. Can human intervention help counter the adverse effects of a prolonged drought?
LI: We will surely have to begin some serious adoption of water conservation technologies (like water efficient appliances, recycling of treated wastewater, desalination, etc.) as part of a comprehensive strategy to adapt to water scarcity.
ET: Such measures can be quite unpopular. While your climate research suggests much drier days ahead, people may still think that at some point the rains will come back like they always have. So why ration water now? If you were a political decision-maker, how do you get past that perception and help focus people’s attention on the long-term risks? What should everyone be thinking about right now?
LI: We have still been using more water than the supply – in California each year we use about 6 million acre-feet from pumping groundwater, which takes a very long time to replenish. Farmers have been using groundwater with no regulation or monitoring in the Central Valley – drawing down the water table.
As our population grows as it’s expected to, we will need to begin serious water conservation and recycling even in the absence of a prolonged drought. This will clearly take a comprehensive plan that involves everyone. A recent analysis by the Pacific Institute outlines water management strategies that could potentially conserve 14 million acre-feet of water per year, which would be hugely beneficial (1).
ET: If you had to ascribe a probability of severely dry decades in the West occurring over the foreseeable future, what would it be?
LI: A team of researchers have analyzed past and present climate change and shown that there is a 50 to 60 percent chance of a 35-year drought occurring in the West.
ET: That’s a very high probability! And as you look at the historical record, what is the worst case scenario for the region? California in particular is such an important state for the US and indeed the world, so the consequences of a prolonged drought could be far reaching. As a state resident, what keeps you up at night? What other states could also be impacted?
LI: The worst case scenario is a repeat of the medieval droughts, which would primarily impact California and the Southwest. The past decade has been very dry in this region, and if it continues for more decades, that would be very difficult.
I also worry about a mega-flood hitting the region, as we've seen every one to two centuries. The last one was in 1861-62, and filled the entire Central Valley (350 miles long and 20 miles wide) with water 20 feet deep. This was caused by 43 days of rain from atmospheric river storms.
ET: And with that, here’s my last question. Are you planning to move out of California at some point? Where would you move to? And if it comes to that, which we hope not, what is the signal for people to start getting out of Dodge (perhaps literally in this case)?
LI: I love California too much to leave! I just hope that if the state begins a serious and comprehensive effort, we will be prepared to make it through the dry periods.
»
- 43929 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Same people who dismiss the Palestinian Holocaust.
Zerohedger hero, G Edward Griffin, is A HUGE chemtrail believer.
Here he is in a short vid.
G. Edward Griffin Talks Candidly About ChemtrailsAre you a chemtrail denier?
In our fast moving world some stories that should be noted often are overlooked and ignored. We all saw and heard about hurricane Sandy, in addition to flooding the subway system of New York and halting financial trading Sandy may of even tilted the Presidential election.
If Sandy had indeed made a difference in the election outcome one might say Sandy has had the impact of also altering our future. While we are becoming more use to these uncommon "weather occurrences", it is possible that we should be viewing them as a warning of worse yet to come. More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2012/11/under-reported-weather-events.htm...
https://dublinsmick.wordpress.com/2014/09/06/the-biosphere-approaches-cr...
If you believe in "chemtrails", you're fucking retarded.
There is plenty of water in California. Most of it is in bottles owned by major corporations. Let's not forget beer, soda, iced teas, sport drinks from every major and micro company. Don't hear them complaining. They figured it out years ago.
Water is still coming out of the tap at last check. Doesn't taste so good. Solution for that is a water filter that costs more money than it should.
Oh well, at least I don't have to shovel snow.:)
Is water a free and basic human right, or should all the water on the planet belong to major corporations and be treated as a product?
Access to Clean Water is a Human Rightwhy doesnt CA just fall off into the Pacific and take all the fags and liberals with them?
No problem
We need a pipe line from the Great Lakes.
The excess water from the Great Lakes flows to the salty Atlantic via the St. Lawrence River.
All that water wasted turned to salt water
The pipeline would not have to go all the way to California just Colorado to replenish the Colorado River.
Come on people it just temporary for a century or so.
We don't have to demonize or control people trying to grow our food.
The are no good guys there are no bad guys only you and me and we just disagree
Listen, I think a more populas American idea would be to utilize the old Warren Buffet train line and fill his tanker cars with your precious clean lake water from the shores of Detroit to the canals of LA.
ChooChoo! Chooomyaaaah! USA #1 in consumption! and tax! oh and innovation!
Why screw around? Water pipeline from the great lakes to southern CA and AZ. Then when the great lakes are empty? Drill, baby, drill. And Canada, that oil is OURS.
Lyndon Larouche pushed that in the 80's.
Off topic but I posted this yesterday on a thread that was dying. Hunting season and A&M Football has begun so I'll be out-of-pocket most weekends.
"It is better to take refuge in the LORD than to trust in man" Psalm 118
Read Revelations for God's truth, He knows.
Warning: Prophecy can only be understood by believers.
So if you still deny God, read John. Your still among the living so there is still HOPE.
"Just as man is destined to die once, and after that to face judgment" Heb
"Why, you do not even know what will happen tomorrow. What is your life? You are a mist that appears for a little while and then vanishes." James
God tells it like it is, with no evil or hate in Him.
Here is a stunning photo (USGS) of land subsidence caused by pumping excessive amounts of water from an aquifer in California. The land has subsided at least 20 feet.
http://water.usgs.gov/edu/earthgwlandsubside.html
Not sure where this information comes from. Northern Arizona received RECORD rainfall this year not seen since 1946. The whole state will be doing well as this area feeds most of southern Arizona. Hardly a drought. I do not deny that the Earth has had global climate change for millions of years. The evidence is everywhere. But this Western drought is a little over talked. Perhaps California has a "drought" because it is tryig to simultaneously irrigate so many crops and the millions of people that live there?
CA 2010 and 2011 were above average precipitation years with 2011 being the greatest with snow pack in the Sierras being 175% of normal. So I really don't get her analysis that the last ten years were "pretty dry".
That snowpack fills up aquifers especially in the San Joaquin valley
CA 2010 and 2011 were above average precipitation years with 2011 being the greatest with snow pack in the Sierras being 175% of normal. So I really don't get her analysis that the last ten years were "pretty dry".
That snowpack fills up aquifers especially in the San Joaquin valley
dupe
Hiked the John Muir Trail again a month or so ago. Take a look at Lake Edison, once a 7 plus mile body of water that now is essentially a large pond. You are kidding yourself if you think the drought is fake or not real.
Resovoirs are the only barometer you are looking at . Foolish.
San Joaquin Aquifer is only down 10% in the last 3 years and all
others in the state are not down or down a fraction.
Flagstaff had 4.54 inches of rain in August 2014 and 2.61 inches of rain in July 2014
Thats 7.15 inches of rain in the last 2 months of July and August 2014 . Thats not a drought.
In 2013 Flagstaff Snowbowl Ski Resort received 154 inches of snow
In 2012 128 inches
In 2011 165 inches with an amazing 27 Inch snowfall on February 20th
In 2010 202 inches
2009 136 inches
2008 236 inches
That does not sound like a decade of very dry weather to me
In 2012 Mammoth Mountain had one of their biggest snowfall years in history
A mind boggling 460 inches of snowfall with March 17th being one of the biggest snowfall days ever
at 36 inches of snow. Drought ?
2013 was a very low year at 103 inches of snow
and 2014 was low at 169 inches. But those numbers dont say drought just a couple dry years in a row. Sorry smart scientists.
Bear Valley Ski Resort in Los Angeles mountains had monster years of snowfall 2012 434 inches and 2011 354 inches 2010 331 inches 2009 354 inches.
Last two years less of course 2013 192 inches and 2014 146 inches but still it does not
show very dry drought over an extended period of time .
These stats I took from onthesnow.com which has all the snow measurements BY SKI RESORTS NOT GOVERNMENT.
And of course we have Hurricane Norbert expected to bring San Diego 2 inches today Sunday the 7th of September and tomorrow.
Moreno Valley for example in Riverside county from recent tropical systems that came through
for the season starting July 1 2014 has just under 2 inches of rain already . Over the last 8 years
moreno valley,CA receives only about 7 1/2 inches of rain per year . Drought? lol hardly with 10 months left in theseason and El Nino coming. The Drought is a HYPE STORY .
Stats from weathercurrents.com
They have plenty of water for ice bucket challenge, and washing cars, decks, and siding.
sam kinnison. go to where the food is.
southern cal, arizona and new mexico are deserts. there is no water there. there will never be any water there. if you want water go to where the water is.
when i first saw the water distribution system in socal the stupidity of the whole project astounded me. as is normal the stupidity of the idea is not realized by the planners or the populace until the stupidity manifests itself.
dumb fucks!. uuuuuhhhh, who duh thunk we would run out of water in a desert?
Yep. Smart crooks rob banks cuz that's where the money is. Who moves to the desert and expects to have a green lawn, full foliage in the yard, plenty of water to drink, bathe and clean the car? They then blame 'climate change'. Was their goal to steal more stupid? Mission accomplished.
PALOMAR Mountain received over 2 inches of rain today 09/07/2014
El Nino is expected and all this relatively rare monsonal moisture is a precusor to El Nino
bringing precipitation to So Cal this fall and winter
Add evaporation and distance and it equals NO MEANINGFUL precipitation. You live in the desert.
At what point did the people realize arid and semi-arid mean desert?
Palomar Mt is a MOUNTAIN with many springs that are replenished by rains that do not evaporate
Hemet,CA on September 7 2014 had 3 INCHES OF RAIN.
Hemet,CA only 8 weeks into the 2014 rain season already has 4.40 Inches of rain.
Riverside,CA has 2 inches of rain in last 8 weeks and it averages only 0.17 inches in the first 2 months of the rain season. Moreno Valley in 8 weeks just under 2 inches.
The city of San Bernardino already has 3 INCHES on rain in 8 weeks. and 2014 Fall and Winter has not even started!!! ALL these numbers are WAY ABOVE THEIR AVERAGES at this point in season!!!
So Cal has had an above average humidity summer meaning evaporation is not occuring so fast.
These rains from the monsoon weather is soaking in.
4 inches in hemet and you think it just evaporates away???
El Nino comes with more humidity and moisture in teh summer before.
Its gonna be a huge EL NINO fall and winter
NOAA Weather Prediction Center says the next 90 days in SO CAL will have Above Average Rainfall.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Precipitation/Departure90.aspx
and above average next 30 days in So Cal
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Precipitation/Departure30.aspx
Kingman and Flagstaff ,AZ are getting drenched with rain
9/7/2014
These climate change people have worse karma than the Kennedy family. Phoenix flooded today and it's raining in LA. Just sayin' every time they publish a big white paper like this, GOD chuckles and sends the opposite. Grab some popcorn and enjoy the show.