UK In "Full Panic Mode", Rains Brimstone, Bribes On Scotland As "Yes" To Independence Poll Crosses 50%

Tyler Durden's picture

All pundits who over the past few months have been saying the possibility of Scottish independence as a result of the September 18 ballot, is at best a pipe dream got a rude wake up call overnight, when Scottish YouGov poll for the Sunday Times put the "Yes" (for independence campaign) on top for the first time since polling began, with No below the majority cutoff line for the first time, at 49, when undecided voters are excluded, and even when including undecideds "Yes" is still ahead by two points at 47-45. As the Spectator reports, "in the space of four weeks, "No" has blown a 22-point lead."

According to Bloomberg, "the shift to an outright lead for supporters of independence may further roil financial markets after the pound weakened last week when the pro-U.K side’s support narrowed to six percentage points." Granted, today's news may be GBP-negative, but Bloomberg seems to still operate under Old Normal assumptions whereby any news, bad or gad, is anything but great for stocks. Expect the S&P to hit new all time highs on this latest development which will be promptly "priced in" and spun as pent-up reunification.

The usual commentariat, which until recently was swearing the Yes vote has zero chance, is stunned :

“For a positive message to catch up so much in a month is totally unprecedented,” said Matt Qvortrup, a senior researcher at Cranfield University in England and author of “Referendums and Ethnic Conflict.” “This is pretty revolutionary stuff in referendum terms. We’re ringside to history.”  The Sept. 18 ballot on Scottish independence is dominating the U.K. after door-to-door campaigning on both sides intensified last week and as traders and investors no longer rule out a dramatic victory for nationalist leader Alex Salmond."

Others were more direct and to the point:

The Spectator's Fraser Nelson had this to say:

Make no mistake, the UK government will now be on full panic mode. This eclipses everything: the country is 12 days away from dissolution. We’re seeing an almost perfect rerun of what happened in Quebec in October 1995 when the ‘yes’ pulled into a lead at the last minute. Then, Canadians (who had ignored the debate until then) suddenly took notice, realising that their country was falling apart. Seven days before the poll, a massive unity rally in Montreal was organised (details here) by a fisheries minister acting on his own initiative. God knows such initiatives are needed now.

UK politicians, naturally, were not happy, starting with the head of the UK Treasury, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, for whom any change from the status quo is very much unwelcome:

Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said a program for increased devolution to Scotland if it votes No, offering Edinburgh more control over taxes, public spending and social policy, will be announced in the “next few days” as the London government responds to the shift in the polls.


“It’s clear that Scotland wants more control over the decisions that affect Scotland,” Osborne said in a televised BBC interview. “The timetable for delivering that will be put into effect the moment there is a ‘no’ vote in the referendum. Then Scotland will have the best of both worlds. They will both avoid the risks of separation but have more control over their own destiny, which is where I think many Scots want to be.”


Osborne also reiterated his opposition, which is shared by all major parties in Westminster, to currency union with an independent Scotland. “No ifs, no buts, we will not share the pound if Scotland splits from the rest of the U.K.,” he said.

His predecessor quickly chimed in: enter Alistair Darling.

‘The polls may conflict, but the message I take from them is clear: If you want Scotland to remain part of the UK family you have to vote for it on 18 September. Separation is forever. These polls can and must now serve as a wake-up call to anyone who thought the referendum result was a foregone conclusion. It never was.  It will go down to the wire. Now is the time to speak up and speak out.


‘We are hitting the streets, knocking on the doors, making the calls in unprecedented numbers and we are hearing the people of Scotland respond positively to our vision of Scotland securing the best of both worlds. That means more powers for Scotland without taking on all the risks of separation.


‘We relish this battle. It is not the Battle of Britain – it is the battle for Scotland, for Scotland’s children and grandchildren and the generations to come. This is a battle we will win.’

It only got more panicky from there:

With campaigning in its final days, the opposition Labour Party is trying to keep its supporters onside in a traditional heartland and vote against independence. Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown, now a Labour legislator, will tour the country making the case for the union.


“I want to share our resources with the rest of the United Kingdom, and that will mean better pensions, better health care, more jobs and better security,” Brown, a Scot, said in an interview with Sky News. “Whatever government is in power temporarily, you’ve got to look at the long term picture. You’ve got to look 50 years ahead, 100 years ahead. This is an irreversible decision.”

But perhaps realizing that dazzling them with glass beads and cheap promises won't work, UK's Prime Minister went "all the way" and pulled a nuclear Hank Paulson, threatening Scotland with outright death and destruction if it votes to secede. From Bloomberg:

Scotland will be more vulnerable to terrorist attacks in a “very dangerous and insecure world” if it votes for independence on Sept. 18, U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said.


Being part of a union gives Scots the protective benefits of being part of a larger country, Cameron told reporters at the end of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s summit in Newport, Wales, yesterday.


With terrorist threats and other threats, isn’t it better to be part of a United Kingdom that has a top-five defense budget, some of the best intelligence and security services anywhere in the world, that is part of every single alliance that really matters in the world in terms of NATO, the G-8, the G-20, the European Union, a member of the security council of the UN?” Cameron said. “All those networks and abilities to work with allies to keep us safe. Isn’t it better to have those things than separate yourself from them?”

Because how else can Scotland protect itself than by aligning with the nation that, together with the US, provided weapons to these "terrorists" in the first place.

And while everyone else demanded a continuation of the status quo, and is "stunned" at the Scottish people for not appreciating the "clear benefits" that a union provides, one person who was absolutely delighted was Scottish National Party leader Alex Salmond who said he expects more the 80 percent turnout in independence referendum on Sept. 18 after a poll for the first time gave a lead for his party’s ‘Yes’ campaign. “We’re encouraged by the clear panic in the ‘No’ campaign,” Salmond said in a BBC interview.

"They’ve failed to scare the Scots, now they’re trying to bribe us. That won’t work either."

But they'll keep on trying: just recall "Scottish Independence 'Yes' Vote Is A "High Risk" Event, Citi Warns." Sure enough, here comes Citi with the postmortem released moments ago, with a note titled: "Sterling Is Set for Negative Surprise After Scottish Poll"

  • Recent history would suggest that a move for the pound toward 1.56 vs USD or lower cannot be excluded if Scotland leaves the union, Citigroup writes in client note today.
  • Outright lead in pro-independence campaign in latest YouGov survey will keep investors anxious about the outcome of the referendum on Sept. 18
  • Referendum authorities may conduct more polls in remaining week and a half; fact is, of the 86 polls conducted since 2012, only two put ’’Yes’’ vote in the lead
  • Better U.K. data this week, such as July industrial and manufacturing production, may be of little comfort
  • Carney testimony to Treasury committee hearing on Sept. 10 could highlight political and economic risks for GBP from the referendum

And from Berenberg:

  • Risk that Scotland will vote for independence is real and rising; recent movements have been further and faster than anticipated, Rob Wood, U.K. economist at Berenberg writes in client note.
  • Still expect a no vote; yes campaign lead is within margin of error and latest poll is not matched in other polls, could be an outlier
  • Scotland is re-running the 1995 Quebec independence referendum, which went down to wire before ending in tight vote against splitting from Canada
  • A Yes to independence could cause serious short-term pain over uncertainty on currency, EU status; Scotland may be forced to austerity
  • May raise risk of U.K. exit from EU without pro-EU Scotland
  • A close No vote would keep alive chances of another referendum in 5-10 years, could mean additional powers for Scotland, kickstarting changes to U.K. regional governance


Of course, everyone knows that the end result of the "vote" will be arbitrated by the proverbial, if not literal Diebold, which we somehow doubt will allow such an earth-shattering outcome as Scotland being allowed to determine its fate, to take place. Because if they can, suddenly it becomes an option for the rest of Europe, a continent where as Mario Draghi has explained time and again, there is far too much political capital invested in allowing the peasants to decide their own fate.

In the meantime, however, what better excuse than to grab the popcorn, sit back and enjoy an all-time classic.

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potato's picture

cue the false flag to scare the people into submission

Arius's picture

YES, YES, to independence!

Manthong's picture

Scotland must be shelled mercilessly if they try to separate from Kiev, er I mean London.

strannick's picture

Scots would give up soothing City of London vandalism for all the headaches and hassles of independence?

Wolferl's picture

t´s pretty clear, those separatist are backed by Putin. ;)

GetZeeGold's picture



William freakin Wallace bitchez!


I've heard that cat is 7 feet tall....

Arius's picture

the importance of a Yes vote is not limited to UK's future ... it will establish a precedent for other similar movements worldwide ... big picture thats what matters

y3maxx's picture

...Should the outcome be "Independence for Scotland"....


PT's picture


NoDebt's picture

Diebold got an urgent call from somebody with a heavy British accent a few minutes ago.

SoberOne's picture

And Obama made an emergency appearance in Scotland, the birthplace of golf. 

overmedicatedundersexed's picture

tyme to split asunder the unholy union, scots be free.

CheapBastard's picture

When I lived in York many years ago I always chuckled when I heard the Brits talk about the Scots being so 'uncivilized' as if they were uncouth, pagan barbarians up there in the north. Very snooty, they were.

surfsup's picture

Freedom of the highest order is a choice regardless of circumstances to be free of lies appearing as truth and for that to enable new actions on the part of the individual regardless of the apparent power of the fictions which still surround him or her.   The break with a conceptual prison of false belief requires no seal, no vote and no "thing" but surely as gravity such creates ripples which very  much do affect "external events and things... "  

Headbanger's picture

If just one fucking round hits just near one fucking Scotch still.....

There'll hell to pay from me and my mighty Mosin !!


And God bless Angus Podgorny where ever you be and what doooo ya mean!!??


James_Cole's picture

But but RBS says scot independence is a terrible idea nad might cause them to collapse!!! Fact that RBS is owned almost entirely by UK aside..

Also, George Osborne promised this morning that scotland will get free candy and blowjobs (or something along those lines, to be decided at an undetermined point in the future) if they stick with UK. Vote for at your peril scots!!

Manthong's picture

“If just one fucking round hits just near one fucking Scotch still...."

The problem might be that the Western nations put sanctions on, and boycott Scotch..

knukles's picture

NPR reported that it is in everybody's best interest to stay unified.

palmereldritch's picture

"Say...that's a nice fledgling independent nation you got would be a shame if anything happened to it..." - David Cameron, UK Prime Minister [paraphrase]

Elvis the Pelvis's picture

William Wallace cornholed my mother.  So I now hold a grudge against all of Scotland.  Curse those kilt-wearing sheep-shaggers.

Pendolino's picture

That's OK, the Russians and the Chinese love our whisky too. And if the gas gets shut off to Europe they'll be in need of a wee nip to keep the chill out over the winter.

Bananamerican's picture

If the Scots vote "yes" I'd seriously consider taking the family back there (after a 450 year absence...)
Glasgow and Edinburgh are seriously great cities

Manthong's picture

and.. Snowden just happens to be Rector at Glasgow University. 

mjcOH1's picture


Let the "gimme 'dat"s vote. Send congratulations and a hearty hi-ho fuck you. Stop the transfer payments the morning after and close the borders. 10 yrs GDP in collateral backed bonds to reintegrate should they so desire.

Pinto Currency's picture



The world is reverting to pertrogold.

Squeak this vote in just before the reversion and before the Scots realize what they have (and what the UK doesn't have).

mjcOH1's picture


Let the "gimme 'dat"s vote. Send congratulations and a hearty hi-ho fuck you. Stop the transfer payments the morning after and close the borders. 10 yrs GDP in collateral backed bonds to reintegrate should they so desire. Raze any federal property they try to seize and bill them for it.

Bananamerican's picture

"Eat my Nessie" ya Brit bastard

Sirius Wonderblast's picture

Now they've messed with the price of my beer by loading duty on it, they've fucked with the licensed trade so that pubs are dropping like flies, if they sod up access to the malt that will be just too far...

knukles's picture

They're promising free candy and blow jobs?
How do I emigrate to Scotland?

MoneyThimbles's picture

The Scots are very sadly disconnected from reality if they think that being independent will make things any better for them. Luckily for the rest of us, it will make things a *lot* better for the rump UK: no more socialist governments being foisted on England because the Scots think Stalinism is cool, for a start. Then, when they've gone bankrupt from out of control state spending, which should take about a decade given their fantasy politics, they can serve as a dreadful warning to the rest of us, which is about all they are good for.



Headbanger's picture

And about all you are good for is pig fodder..

You mook!!

FreedomGuy's picture

Excellent, point MoneyThimbles. It is like Iraq. Yes, the deposed Saddam but they have not produced anything better. Liba went from Qadaffi to chaos. Unless Scotland has a different set of political and structural ideas they will not do appreciably better than England.

The same thing works for America, too, BTW. If we copy Europe, we get the same results.

man of Wool's picture

You mean Anglos not Brits. Britishness is all about English colonialism.

Truthseeker2's picture

English: The Language of Commerce, Command and Control

The Scots use English much differently than the London Brits

Rootin' for Putin's picture

I grew up in the Uk and when theres a documentary about Glasgow or such, i need subtitles.

El Oregonian's picture


Headbanger's picture

Oh FUCK LONDON really!


Majestic12's picture

"Oh FUCK LONDON really!"

here, here!!!!

However, the monarchy, with help from their Reptilian overlords, will rig the voting and/or find an obscure law the nullifies any change...

They can't BOE it to repair the gaping hole Scotland will cause...

This would also be "too contagious" for it to work...sadly.

teslaberry's picture

i believe that the independence vote could possibly be GOOD for major multi-national corporations. 


venice and barcelona 'indepence' movements are BALKANIZATION. 


the u.k. is no longer the corporate super power it once was. offshore money goes to switzerland and offshore and out of the way locations .   if the multi-nationals are planning of major crisis erupting inside the major cities, in order to consolidate political power around the world under the transpacific partnership-----then we are looking at a strategy that embraces TORCHING major cities with massive violence and GUTTING OF SOCIAL SPENDING-----




this empire is transnational---uses telecomunnications----and operates just in time supply lines located all around the world.    perhaps balkanizing CALIFORNIA, THE UK, SPAIN, ITALY BRAZIL AND OTHER PLACES---IS PART OF THEIR 'SOLUTION'. 


you will know whether or not this is the case if scotland gains independece AND there is no major paramilitary mi6 attempt to change reverse, or otherwise neuter the indepence referendum or the praxis of putting the vote into policy action. 


if there is significant opposition by the mi6 and corporate paramilitary-----then you know they don't want it to happen!. but if they don't, it's a balkanization setup.

Lore's picture

Interesting, particularly since my region suffers from a recently-launched, mysteriously-backed, Agenda 21-favourable drive for intermunicipal amalgamation.  "Sustainability" appears to like the idea of smaller nations, fewer cities and towns, bigger local governments, and much higher taxes.

teslaberry's picture

the issue here is 'higher taxes'. when you see that , it's a dead give away. 

REAL decentralization means LOWER taxes by nature. soviet union states paid LESS in tribute when they left the union. 


balkanization + replete spying networks and paramilitary backed banker-technocratic government = inability to resist political authority of centralized powers PLUS the insurance policy of being able to financially destroy and punish individual city/states that attempt to resist. 

by balkanizing it makes it easier to isolate and punish those uncooperative cities, and easier to destroy them scorched earth style without having to worry about their neighbors 'uniting' with them as the neighbors will be rewarded for staying 'out of it' . 

Save_America1st's picture

Will Scotland still have a central bank?  Yeah, thought so.  Freedom, huh?  How's that again?  They'll all still be ruled by the evil banksters no matter what. 

The Big Ching-aso's picture

If Scotland goes independent and takes their dentist with them the remaining UK dentist conceivably will carry twice the load at 52 patients.